The Nation Newspaper

Tag: Experts

  • Experts seek export mapping

    To enable investors explore opportunities in the economy, experts have called for a national export mapping.

    This, they noted, would identify untapped the potential for exports and promote economic diversification.

    The Federation of Agricultural Commodities Association of Nigeria (FACAN) National President,Dr Victor Iyama said though there was an initiative in this direction by the Nigeria Exports Promotion Council (NEPC), there was the need for a platform that provides comparable information about untapped potential across the agricultural sector.

    With the government’s attention channelled towards growing the economy, he added that such a platform would help shape export -development strategies by identifying commodities that should be supported to drive growth and improve foreign exchange earning.

    National Cashew Association of Nigeria (NCAN) National Publicity Secretary, Mr Anga Sotonye,  said such a map was critical as it would enable investors scan the commodities with tremendous economic prospect.

    According to him, exporters need guidance on the export value of commodities and which market they could be sold to.

    This, he believes, can serve an analytic tool for investors working to maximise gains from global trade.

    He stressed that the ability of exporters to access regional and global markets depends on the information they can gather and this needs to be part of a broader effort by policy makers to clear a path for businesses to succeed.

  • TOO HOT TO HANDLE:When ‘experts’ refuse to talk

    THERE is no doubt that the issue of herders/farmers clashes across the country has generated so much bad blood and controversy that writing or commenting on it has become dicey. There is hardly anything you say that would not be pigeon-holed.

    If you say the herders are at fault, you are going to be labelled a hater of a particular ethnic group and if you talk in favour of the farmers you are also called a hater of the other ethnic group.

    This was the dilemma faced by this reporter while trying to talk to ‘experts’ on what the clashes portend for the country. For instance, almost all university teachers approached by the reporter declined to speak on the matter. They either claimed ignorance or asked to be excused because the “matter is sensitive”.  A few agreed to speak and asked for their names and affiliations to be left out. Why? The reporter asked.

    “It is a very delicate matter. No matter what you say, passions are going to be inflamed, so I don’t want to talk and be a marked man,” one said.

    Another refused to talk even on a strictly professional issue as climate change. The reporter had asked for his opinion, saying if he was not ready to comment on the clash, he could at least offer an insight into how climate change had led to the migration of herdsmen from the north to the middle belt and the southern part of the country in search of pasture.

    However, another ‘expert’ declined to speak with the reporter, asking to be paid by the reporter because, according to him, “you want to use my opinion to sell your newspaper. So, I deserve to be paid to offer my opinion.” Noting that the reporter was looking at him unbelievably, he retorted, “Don’t you know abroad newspapers pay experts for offering their opinions?”

    The reporter replied that he was hearing this for the first time in his professional life and that he has also travelled a bit and had never met any colleague who said his newspaper paid any ‘expert’ to offer any opinion on matter of public concern.

  • 2018: Experts identify major business risks in Nigeria

    2018: Experts identify major business risks in Nigeria

    Experts have identified top 10 business risks associated with the country in 2018. Firing the first salvo is Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, a global insurance company and risk consultant, which recently published the 2018 global risk outlook enumerated top 10 business risks for Nigeria according to their ranking.

    According to the body, theft, fraud and corruption rank as number one risk. “Corruption in Nigeria is endemic and deeply rooted in our society but what is surprising is that even with the anticorruption drive of the present administration this risk jumped three places from being fourth ranked in 2017 to being number one in 2018.”

    Market developments: This encompasses issues such as volatility, intensified competition / new entrants, M&A, market stagnation, market fluctuation. This is the second highest risk faced by businesses in Nigeria in 2018. Its ranking in 2017 was also number two.

    Besides, the group identified changes in legislation and regulation including change in government, economic sanctions, protectionism, Brexit, Eurozone disintegration etc, as the number three since according to it, the country has a culture of lack of continuation in policies and legislation.

    The body said macroeconomic developments such as austerity programmes, commodity price increase, deflation, inflation etc, which in 2017 ranked number 1, but now in third place, seems to suggest that there is a measure of macroeconomic stability in 2018 compared with 2017.

    Cyber incidents like cyber crime, IT failure, data breaches and hacking, which risk is reflective of the reality of the digital age, in Nigeria, has more to do with IT failure than cyber attacks because of the state of IT infrastructure which is not as advanced as that of Europe or the U.S. Political risks and violence involving war, terrorism, civil commotion, exacerbated by the activities of Boko Haram, the killings by Fulani herdsmen, the threats by Niger Delta militants, unrests among Igbo youths are all pointers to how widespread political risks and violence is in Nigeria. Fire and explosion, ranked number seven, while power and energy blackouts followed suit.

    Business interruption including supply chain disruption, ranked at number nine and has to do with issues such as suppliers not delivering on time which affects the time to market of businesses.

    New technologies such as impact of increasing interconnectivity, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, 3D printing and drones: This risk was also ranked number 10 in 2017.

    Curiously, as Nigeria exits the recession of 2017, investor sentiment across the West African sub-region is likely to experience uplift in 2018. Still, political uncertainty ahead of Nigeria’s 2019 presidential elections and ongoing security concerns are among the key risks for businesses operating in the region, says specialist global risk consultancy Control Risks in their annual political and security risk forecast ‘RiskMap.’.

    On control risks, Senior Partner for West Africa Tom Griffin noted that, “2017 has been a tough and turbulent year for businesses in the region, however with Nigeria exiting recession, and foreign exchange shortages easing, we see a strong improvement in investor sentiment emerging. Another major engine of growth will be Cote d’Ivoire, where economic expansion is projected at around 7% next year. There will be only a handful of elections in the region in 2018, meaning continuity will largely prevail with policy decisions having the biggest impact on the business environment.”

    “In Nigeria however, although presidential elections are next slated for 2019, campaigning has already started. The uncertainty that generates, as well as the need for cash that an election brings, mean that political instability and regulators whose actions will be difficult to predict remain among our top risks for businesses in the year ahead.”

    Specifically, Control Risks identified terrorism and militancy as the greatest risk to bear in 2018 across the sub-region. “Business assets and personnel in West Africa will remain vulnerable to attacks by transnational or domestic militant groups. In particular, al-Qaeda and its affiliates will continue to pose a threat to operators in the Sahel, while the oil and gas industry in Nigeria’s Niger Delta will remain exposed to attacks by domestic militant groups. Failure to resolve the underlying political and socio-economic grievances at the root of these movements will see the threat persist in 2018.”

    Besides, “Countries in the region, notably commodity-dependent economies, face growing fiscal pressures, operators are likely to see regulatory bodies increasingly act as revenue-generating bodies, strengthening local content provisions, introducing stricter fiscal terms, reviewing contracts or erratically imposing fines in companies in the hope of boosting state finances. This will periodically give rise to commercial disputes, legal challenges, and the need for businesses to engage with government stakeholders”, the expert projected.

    The major risks and challenges businesses that are likely to confront West Africa are the ongoing practical impediments to day-to-day operations. “Shortages of or difficulties in sourcing fuel, foreign currency, equipment and skilled labour; the infrastructure deficits that persist in the vast majority of the region, such as in electricity and transport, will continue to mean higher costs, higher demands on management resources a tougher capital-raising environment, and greater uncertainty for businesses than in other regions.”

    Many countries in Africa, including Nigeria, face the prospect of what could become a sovereign debt crisis, a decade after they followed Ghana’s lead in entering the international bond market. The problem is driven by high levels of external debt, persistent uncertainty over the recovery of commodity prices to fund repayments, and borrowing to fund recurrent expenditure. Countries dependent on oil revenues are particularly vulnerable to ballooning debt in 2018.

     

  • How ICT can change teachers’ fortune, by experts

    How can teachers improve their lot? By using information and communication technology (ICT), they can become better and make it big, say some experts, who argue that teaching should not be synonymous with poverty 

    When will teachers begin to live much comfortably like other professionals?

    While teachers in public schools have improved, the lot of same cannot be said of their counterparts in private schools. Beyond some high flying schools in high brow neighbourhoods, only a  few of other private schools are doing well.  Welfare packages in most schools in poor neighbourhoods are nothing to write home about, with the teachers struggling  for survival.

    In the past, tales abound  of  some landlords rejecting potential tenants because they were teachers. Some parents also declined giving their daughters out in marriage to teachers.

    But while the society is still living with this phenomenon, many  teachers are breaking out of the mould Why can they not compete with their counterparts in the banking or oil and gas industry? They wondered. They have found a way out in Information and communication technology (ICT) which is provoking new thinking these teachers are latching on to broaden their horizon.

    To experts, 21st Century teachers can make it big if they can make themselves more marketable.

    Mrs Yinka Ogunde, who manages Edumark, an education marketing firm, noted that the word ‘marketable’ transcends teachers’ aspiration to adding values to themselves, but also includes being very competent in their chosen field.

    She said: “I know what you are saying by the use of the word ‘marketability” is how teachers can acquire more values, but I dare say that the most important thing is that teachers must see their work first as a calling and then be the best in their subjects.

    “Today, the world is dealing with knowledge economy. Knowledge is what we cannot see, but can feel and can be demonstrated to us and when the teachers do that well, he or she becomes a gold fish.”

    After this basic prerequisite, according to Ogunde, other pecks such as training and retraining can follow and they can be initiated either by the employer or the employee.

    Mrs Ogunde continued: “It goes both ways. First, it’s nobody’s responsibility if I choose to make myself more valuable (through more training) because the benefit is directly to the owner and not the school’s. In other words, some schools consider training as key because management priortises the interest of parents and their wards. Therefore, they believe developing their members of staff will impact on overall values of their school.”

    Corroborating Ogunde, another teacher Mr Chucks Nwabuike, who pleaded not to mention where he teaches, admitted that mastery of subject with a measure of charisma can stimulate school patronage while improving the teacher’s assets.

    “”I can describe the salary in the school I teach as average, but a few of us have been enjoying some preferential treatment above our peers because of our charisma,” he began.

    “For instance, management at some point realised that some parents leave their children here not because the school is good, but because some of the children have developed emotional attachment with some of us because of the way we handle our subjects.

    “One of the parents whose two children I teach bankrolled a  private ICT training programme I underwent  late last year. Another family, whose wards are here, single-handed paid half my tuition when I was doing my masters two years ago.

    “It is the way you handle the subject that matters and this determines how a child falls in love with, or detests a subject,” said Mr Emiloju Ikuejawa, who is also a teacher ata private school, Rockville School.

    “These children tell their parents how good or bad their teachers are and this tells on parents’ perception of such teacher. Once a teacher makes his teaching easier and very interesting, there is no way he would not be appealing to both parents and the school management. I have seen instances where excited parents send teachers on vacation or training abroad. It’s because of the manner the teacher packages himself,” Ikuejawa added.

    An educationist and co-ordinator Mabysgold Coaching Network, Muyiwa Ashimolowo, believes poverty among teachers is all about perception of the mind, adding that his colleagues must be determined to break away from stereotypes. Mabysgold Coaching Network is a human capacity enhancements outfit for teachers

    Ashimolowo said: “Many teachers in our country are no doubt trapped in the dungeon of poverty. Since children cannot outthink their teachers, emergency must be declared on the poverty among teachers.”

    He continued: “However as the emergency is declared, teachers must also come to realise that their thoughts and minds are more powerful than the government and their private employers. Teachers must grow bigger minds by investing on mind renewal and work hard to get their childhood creativity.“

    In addition, Ashimolowo is seeking a paradigm shift by bringing on board teachers whose success stories can inspire the younger ones into taking their destinies in their hands.

    “There is the need to raise a new model among teachers, who have been able to innovate new stories with their lives, this will check the dangerous trend of brilliant and male teachers that are exiting the classroom on a daily basis. These new models must become mentors, who will share their stories in such a way that other teachers can learn from and then adopt or adapt into their lives.”

    Kareem Olanrewaju who teaches Mathematics and Economics at RockVile Schools, Ojo, Lagos, noted that fate made him a teacher, and having realised that, he has overtime improved himself.

    “I recall years ago, when I was seeking admission into the university, my late father wanted me to study Business Administration, but I was offered Mathematics Education. My father was not happy at all and he had to use his influence to ensure that my programme was changed to Business Administration. But as fate would have it, I couldn’t find job relating to my field years after graduation. I eventually considered going into teaching. Today, aside that I found joy in imparting knowledge, I have also done my PGD, Masters and about to start my PhD. This has enhanced my promotion, given me more respect among my colleagues and made me more marketable in the labour market”

    If it paid well for Olanrewaju because his school’s management  allowed him to flourish, it may not  be so with others. A source in a private school in Festac Town area shared a horrible experience with our reporter.

    “Once you step into my school, you will be happy to want to bring your wards there because the environment is quite inviting and conducive for learning. But, we teachers,  are often afraid to share with parents the internal politics and back-biting going on.

    “For instance you dare not tell management that you are running a programme otherwise, you will be fired the following day. So, when I started my master’s programme, I would leap over the fence to attend lectures. I only had a confidant whom I shared my secrets with because you don’t know who would leak your secrets to others.”

    “After a while, some of those who had been watching me secretly informed the management and I was caught. At that time, I was a level to becoming the principal but, the management decided to punish me by demoting me. That punishment demoralised me. Luckily for me, I was about finishing the masters programme at the time and shortly after my graduation, I secured another job with a bigger salary and more attractive welfare packages. So, what would have happened if I’d not make that sacrifice by improving myself?”

    Another source, a teacher in another private school in Agbara, noted that regardless of how poor or fat a teacher’s salary is, workers, who often chose the path of self development, are hardly found engaging in frivolities in the system.

    “Don’t be surprised that some of our colleagues, who have refused to improve on themselves are actually the ones that made themselves informants in any system. They are the ones, who tried to curry management favour with their eye service.

    The source continued: “Come to think of it, I have a colleague, who joined the school where I teach with his NCE certificates about seven year ago.  She soon became the darling of the owner of the school because she always briefed ‘Oga everything about us, workers. This colleague also enjoyed promotions and at a point she was working as secretary in the proprietor’s office. Most of us hated what she was doing; yet no one could talk for fear of being fired.

    “As God would have it, the proprietor died two years ago, and her only son, who had lived many years in United Kingdom returned home to take over the school. As an outsider, who knew little or nothing about the school, he held a meeting with us where he appointed one of the oldest hands as a new principal and decided to upgrade our salaries according to our credentials.  Many of us, who had acquired one certificate or the other were upgraded while this same lady hadn’t acquired anything. This son of madam was so angry that he considered sacking her. He was surprised that nearly 10 years in the system, this lady had not done anything to improve herself.”

    A public school teacher in Lagos praised the Lagos State government for prompt payment of teachers’ salaries as well as all expenses paid for training them and other support staff. Nonetheless, the source noted that that is not enough for his colleagues to rest on their oars.

    “Whatever the training government is giving us is not enough due to financial constraints; we also need to improve on ourselves,” added the source.

    “We are simply lucky because we are located in Lagos where government accords importance to their teachers. Just imagine what our colleagues in other states have been going through since last year, owing to poor state of the economy.   I simply imagine what those, who have not learned new skills are going through. I am a teacher, I am also into fashion designing and I serve as resource persons for a number of training organisations. That simply translates to extra income for me. While it is good as teachers to be on top of our game, we should not just limit our knowledge to the classroom alone.”

  • Rice, onion, tomato shortages likely next year, experts warn

    Nigeria may face tomato, rice and onion shortages next year, following the continued shut down of Tiga Dam in Kano State, The Nation has learnt.

    The dam provides irrigation to Hadejia and to areas as far as Nguru and Gashua in Borno and Yobe states.

    Nigeria produces 65 per cent of all the tomatoes in West Africa, with much of it produced in Kano. But more than 45 per cent of it rots away for lack of preservation and processing facilities.

    Consultant to the World Bank, Prof Abel Ogunwale, said the dam has been a major source of water to irrigation sites in Kano State and major farming communities around Kaduna State and the continued shut down of the  dam has put the irrigation system in jeopardy.

    Speaking with The Nation, Ogunwale, an extension specialist, said the suspension of water supply to farmers from the dam would, no doubt, negatively affect farming during the dry season.

    He said the continuous shortage of the dam will affect rice, onion and tomato production.

    Ogunwale explained that farmers that would be operating during the dry season farming will face serious threat.

    He warned that if the authorities failed to quickly address this issue, the aftermath of the suspension would affect farm produce output in the state, especially tomato.

  • Why AMCON may fail, by experts

    There are fears in some quarters that the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) may not be able to fulfil its core mandate unless the different arms of government take decisive steps.

    Speaking with a cross-section of experts at the weekend, they expressed worry that the Corporation requires serious political will to be able to achieve their set objective given the parlous state of the economy.

    Firing the first salvo, former Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, Hon. Justice I. N. Auta and the President of Court of Appeal, Hon. Justice Zainab Adamu Bulkachuwa observed that AMCON there is need for a paradigm shift in debt recovery processes in Nigeria.

    Such shift according to them would act as act as panacea, if indeed the Corporation were to meet its mandate of resolving its huge outstanding obligation.

    The current AMCON management under the leadership of its Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Ahmed Kuru upon assuming office and reviewing the challenges as well as bottlenecks inhibiting recoveries mounted a strong campaign that the current practice where habitual and recalcitrant debtors are treated with kid gloves, especially by agencies of government would not help AMCON resolve these loans before its sunset date.

    According to Justice Auta, the approach to debt recovery and resolution must change at this point in the life of AMCON especially going into 2018 and beyond because the Corporation came as a child of necessity at the time it was created with all the good intentions in the world to recalibrate the beleaguered economy of the country at the time.

    Also lending credence to the foregoing, Prof. Chris Onalo, Registrar/Chief Executive Officer, Institute of Credit Administration (ICA), impressed on the court the need to ensure quick dispensation of justice, especially in cases brought before it. “I think the time has come for the judiciary to stand up and live up to the public expectation, considering the fact that it is the last place of hope. But a situation where the court seems to be aiding and abetting the debtors to run away from their obligations is totally unacceptable.”

    AMCON is currently indebted to the CBN to the amount of N4.7trillion which is more than half of the proposed 2018 national budget. More than 70% percent of AMCON’s EBA portfolio is locked in one form of litigation or the other. Without the support of the judiciary AMCON cannot see the light of day and there are dire implications for the entire Nigerian economy.

  • Experts suggest ways to reduce heart failure

    Experts suggest ways to reduce heart failure

    To avert sudden death, usually caused by heart failure, Nigerians have been asked to check their lifestyle.

    A fatty deposit within the lining of the arteries causes heart failure.

    Experts who gathered in Lagos, noted that to prevent heart failure people must shun smoking, take healthy foods, reduce salt intake, engage in regular physical activity, keep their weight and waist size down and drink alcohol in moderation.

    They listed the dangers of heart failure, stating that it is imperative to seek medical check-up with qualified cardiologists from time to time, to facilitate preventive measures and ensure early diagnosis in some cases.

    They pointed out that cardiovascular diseases are diseases of the heart or blood vessels. However, the term cardiovascular disease is used to describe diseases of the heart or blood vessels that are caused by atheroma. And the narrowing of the blood vessels can lead to cardiovascular diseases, including heart disease (for example, angina, heart attack and heart failure), cerebro-vascular disease (transient ischaemic attacks and stroke), and peripheral arterial disease.

    According to a consultant cardiologist, Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital (OAUTH), Prof. Micheal Balogun heart failure is responsible for about 30 percent of hospitalisation and eventual death in Nigeria.

    Hence, the experts pointed out that one’s blood pressure and cholesterol level are highly important. All people aged over 40 years should have a cardiovascular health risk assessment – usually available at pharmacies, clinics and hospitals. If you have a high risk of developing a cardiovascular disease, treatment to reduce high blood pressure (hypertension) and/or cholesterol may be advised.

    On the threats heart failure pose, Prof. Kamilu Karaye of Aminu Kano University Teaching Hospital (AKTH), explained how the disease impede the everyday life of its sufferers; causing them constant pain, swollen legs, general discomfort, decline in social interaction, among others. The professor identified depression as one of the deadliest conditions that accompany heart failure, stating that without proper care or seeking professional help, the depression is likely to lead to suicide.

    The cardiologists suggested that psychological and physical support from caregivers of heart failure patients is one of the most effective ways to improve their everyday life. They explained that close monitoring i.e. helping with the administration of medications, is also consequential in helping them lead a normal life.

    Regular use of recommended medication by a qualified doctor or General Practitioner, eating healthy, minimising stress levels, and a few more were identified by the cardiologists as other imperative methods of managing heart failure among sufferers of the incurable disease.

    Other cardiologists at the event included Consultant cardiologist, University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan, Dr. Ikechukwu Ogah; Consultant cardiologist, Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH), Prof. Amam Mbakwem; Consultant cardiologist, University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital (UPTH), Dr. Maclean Akpa; Consultant cardiologist, University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital (UITH), Prof. Ibraheem Katibi; and Consultant cardiologist, University of Abuja Teaching Hospital (UATH), Dr. Dike Ojji.

  • Experts worried about cybercrime

    Experts worried about cybercrime

    Experts in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) yesterday raised the alarm over the high rate Nigerians release personal information on the internet.

    The experts said this could aid cybercrime and related criminal activities in the country.

    They expressed serious concerns at the opening of a two-day seminar on data privacy and security at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital.

    Participants from Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa and other African countries are attending the seminar with representatives of government regulatory and other relevant agencies.

    The seminar, with the theme: Data Privacy and Protection in Africa – Developing an Evidence-driven Multi-stakeholder-based Approach, was hosted by the Ibadan School of Government and Public Policy (ISGPP).

    The President of Nigeria Internet Registration Association (NIRA), Mr Sunday Folayan, who led the voices of concerns, said many Nigerians are ignorant of the danger inherent in giving personal information on the internet to the level that they deliberately provide the public with detailed information about themselves, particularly on the social media and other internet-based activities.

    He said the trend had grown to a worrisome level, adding that those guilty of the practice ignore warnings and education on the problem, thereby softly frustrating experts.

    According to him, personal information, including date of birth, data on family members, residential address and personal worth, is private and should be seriously guarded.

    Folayan said personal information, for instance, on hospital patients, pupils, students and bank customers, is readily available on the waste paper released to petty traders to wrap roasted plantain, groundnuts and others.

    Instead of shredding such papers or keeping them because of the sensitivity of the information, the NIRA president noted that such organisations expose people to criminals who need such information as raw materials for their criminal activities.

    He advised stakeholders to raise awareness on the problem before it gets out of hands.

    Other speakers highlighted similar dangerous cultures in other African countries.

    A member of the Steering Committee of the African Academic Network on Internet Policy, which organised the seminar, Dr Temitope Aladesanmi, said the seminar was aimed at providing the framework for African perspective on data protection and security in the global internet community.

    He said the outcome would provide policy briefs that would be presented to government to aid policy formulation on data protection and security in African countries.

    ISGPP’s Executive Vice Chairman Dr Tunji Olaopa said the seminar was the first step at identifying research gaps in internet policy in African countries.

    He added that the seminar series would also raise the African voice within the global internet community from its current abysmally low level.

  • Recession, our well-being and economic experts

    Since the publication of the 2017 second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which indicated that Nigeria has inched out of recession, commentators who apparently do not agree with that position have struggled to link their perception to the state of well-being of majority of Nigerians. To them, since there is still an outcry of hardship in the land, then the country’s economy is still neck deep in recession.

    They maintain that the recession regime is still on, in spite of the marginal 0.55% positive growth gained after five consecutive quarters of negative outing. However, put simply, a recession results when there is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in a national economy. Exiting recession therefore is when a succeeding quarter growth level turns positive.

    For a layman, linking exiting recession and escaping hardship might be excusable since it is largely an expectation; but it hardly would be for those who claim to be economic experts. A number of those who have so classified themselves have in their analysis in the past three months exposed their limited relationship with macroeconomic dynamics; even as some of them have jumped into the popular side of the public gallery while still waving the banner of economic expertise.

    Initially the bashing was assumed as a euphoria thing characteristic of the politically partisan Nigerian landscape which sometimes throws sanity to the winds. It was thought ordinarily that it would wane with the frenzy that the report generated in some quarters; but it has not. Some economic “experts” and newspaper columnists still use the erroneous perception to garnish reports aimed at dismissing government’s economic policy initiatives; especially pronouncements that seem to indicate that some progress is being made with gains on the economic landscape. This indeed is unbecoming and requires some intervention otherwise it would linger and eventually become accepted as true.

    One does not need to be an expert in economics to know that there is a difference between exit from recession and full economic recovery, even if they are some cross-cutting variables. Simple economics can attest to this! A recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in an economy; therefore exiting a recession is simply when the quarterly growth turns positive. Even though an exit from recession is a necessary and important precursor for economic recovery, exit from recession does not necessary amount to full economic recovery. There is no real harm talking about it in that light within a context, but using it generally and trying to dress it in an intellectual garb to push a set position would amount to either basic ignorance or intellectual dishonesty.

    For those who are well versed in economics as opposed to those playing politics with it, when an economy slides into a recession, the first step towards recovery is to arrest the slump and prevent the economy from sliding further. It is when this is successfully done that building towards economic recovery begins. Simply put, without an exit from recession there can be no recovery. What the second quarter report simply indicated was that the slump has stopped and recovery has begun. It did not say that the economy has fully recovered and everyone would suddenly quit poverty and exit hardship.

    It is worrisome that some persons who otherwise should know and who should be helping with strategic initiatives and projecting positive values to help drive the economy for the benefit of all have allowed other considerations to becloud their patriotic and professional perspectives. Everybody need not agree on a particular situation or issue, but mischief or half-truths can hardly be helpful in addressing it. Nigeria is particularly unlucky to have some “experts” who are more knowledgeable in propaganda and mercantilism than in the fields they claim to profess.

    At the drop of a hat, more than 100 “experts” could write and discuss on a particular development with largely varying perspectives and positions; often without verifiable indicators, variables, parameters or fundamentals. The country has been invaded by a motley gang of experts who profess according to their respective feelings and expectations rather than the scholarship of their calling.

    Just as in the case of dismissing exit from recession on the basis of low level individual indispositions, some of these “experts” point to government’s poor revenue stream and resultant shortage of expendable money to justify their disagreement. In real economic terms, what would be the relationship between coming out of recession and the amount of money available to government for public sector spending? It would be necessary to explain that the Nigerian economy using GDP-by-output has 46 activities. Public administration is just one of the 46; and the “experts” in their analysis are often referring to just one of the activities. There are others which include:  agriculture that does not depend on whether government has money or not to grow; same with trade and even crude oil which does not come from wells only when government has money to spend. Financial services, arts, entertainment and recreation, telecommunications, among others, do not, in strict economic sense and in this context, depend on the amount of money available to government to spend.

    Apparently because of the mindset of some of these “experts”, they lose sight of the fact that the report was a GDP report on the whole economy, formal and informal, and not a public sector performance report. Government is just one part of the whole economy which the report referred to. By expenditure approach, GDP is household consumption plus government consumption plus government investment plus private sector investment plus net exports. Capital is just one of five parts and the smallest part of the above equation, so it cannot be used to determine recession or otherwise.

    There is no doubt or hiding the fact that the Nigerian economy is still in the woods; but unnecessary bashings from arm-chair economic experts who stand facts on the head is not going to help the situation get better. Instead, it will create more confusion and panic in the system which can never be in the interest of anyone, including the acclaimed experts themselves. A simple content analysis of the proposals and postulations of a number of these experts would produce nothing but a cacophony of sounds with very little or no beneficially related substance, because everyone is seeing things from individual perspectives and assuming that such personal positions are the very remedy to the situation at hand.

     

    • Ikot, a commentator on national issues, resides in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State.

  • Experts express mixed feelings on 2018 budget

    Finance and economic experts have expressed mixed feelings on the 2018 budget, citing the structure of the budget and poor history of budget approval and implementation.

    Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr.  Muda Yussuf, said the allocation of about 30 per cent of the budget to capital projects is commendable, noting that capital budget had once been as low as 15 per cent.

    According to him, recurrent expenditure cannot be suddenly reduced because of personnel cost as the army, education sector, hospitals and others need to be adequately funded in a bid to achieve the aim of a better country.

    “The fact that you have the budget structure at 30.8 per cent capital, about 70 per cent recurrent is fairly okay,” Yusuf said.

    He underscored the need to create enabling environment for the private sector, noting that not much had been done with the 2017 budget and there is a possibility that the 2018 budget may go the same way.

    He said that there should be a proper framework for paying oil marketers and contractors arrears.

    Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, urged the government to focus on primary and secondary issues.

    He said that although Nigeria needs to grow, the 2018 budget may not be the propeller of an economic leap.

    “Inflationary projection in the budget is not realistic. Government is silent on subsidy on power and petroleum products and minimum wage. The projection for non-oil revenue is not realistic and the deficit gap may widen after all,” Rewane said.

    Former Minister of Finance, Dr. Shamsudeen Usman, stressed the need for the executive arm of government to engage the National Assembly.

    “The budget is an economic material but also a highly political one. This is not the first time the budget was presented in time. One of the problems is the gap between budget and approval,” Usman said.

    The experts spoke at a seminar on the budget organised by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).