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  • Ondo 2016: Factors that aided Akeredolu’s victory

    Ondo 2016: Factors that aided Akeredolu’s victory

    It is no longer news that All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Oluroritmi Akeredolu is Ondo State governor-elect. What is news is how the Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) proved bookmakers wrong to spring surprise in the Sunshine State. Deputy News Editor BUNMI OGUNMODEDE writes on the forces that paved the way for the one-time Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) president.

    Saturday’s governorship election in Ondo State has been won and lost. Strangely, the results proved all bookmakers wrong. The candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Mr. Olurotimi Akeredolu (SAN), beat two other major contenders, Mr Eyitayo Jegede (SAN) of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Mr. Olusola Oke of the Alliance for Democracy (AD).

    Akeredolu, who ==analysts described as the  political underdog, sprang a surprise, winning in 14 out of the 18 local government areas with 244, 842 votes to beat PDP’s Jegede to the second position with 150, 380 and Oke with 126, 889 votes.

    The APC flag bearer did not win all the six council areas in his North Senatorial District but took the battle to Jegede in his Central Senatorial base and won in five of the seven local government areas. In Oke’s South Senatorial District, Akeredolu won in three of the five council areas.

    The results have shown that certain undercurrents guided the election to prove bookmakers wrong and assert the supremacy of the electorate. Some of the forces that aided the victory of the APC candidate are:

     

    The party platforms 

    PDP crisis

    The ruling party was crisis-ridden in the run-up to the poll. Jegede, who eventually flew its ticket at the election, was restored on the ballot two days to the election. He was in the limbo for more than a month after a Federal High Court ruling gave the ticket to Mr. Jimoh Ibrahim of the Ali Modu Sheriff faction of the party. Jegede, a preferred candidate of incumbent Governor Olusegun Mimiko, is of the Ahmed Markafi faction. Since Ibrahim is of the other faction, the governor, who has a hold on the PDP structure and resources in the state stayed away for as long as Ibrahim was on the ballot.

    In Rivers State when a similar scenario played out in 2007, the party supported Celestine Omehia during the campaigns. Omehia won the election but lost the seat to Rotimi Amaechi who approached the court for what he called illegal substitution by the PDP leadership as the candidate. That was not the case in the Sunshine State. The mainstream PDP distanced itself from the Ibrahim campaigns.

    The former PDD candidate’s involvement was to stop Mimiko from relinquishing office to a lackey in Jegede. According to him, Jegede’s victory would mean a third term for the incumbent who will complete a two-term in office next February.

    Those who accused Ibrahim of playing a spoiler’s role may be right after all. He was alleged to have congratulated Akeredolu immediately after voting closed in the polling units across the state on Saturday and even when INEC was yet to collate and compute the results from the local government areas. Ibrahim’s accusers said the results have foreclosed his plan to appeal his removal as the PDP’s candidate last week Thursday.

    “He has succeeded in removing Mimiko from office. He was never a serious candidate. Let’s wait and see if he will still push his appeal. You remember that even on the eve of the election, he told his supporters that he remained the party’s candidate,” an analyst said yesterday.

     

    AD

    The AD, the platform on which Oke contested, was moribund before its flag bearer defected from the APC in the aftermath of the controversial shadow poll. Although Oke succeeded in reactivating the platform, time was definitely not on his side to establish structures that could have been formidable enough to win a statewide election. Many lauded Oke’s performance on the AD platform, which they say he borrowed to cotest the election. They attribute Oke’s performance to experience.

     

    The APC

    Despite the controversial governorship primary, the APC has become a formidable party and an alternative to the ruling PDP in the state. Ahead of the poll, the APC was the nest of every aggrieved PDP member. Former Deputy Governor Alhaji Olanusi Ali joined the APC after he parted ways with Mimiko.

    It was believed that whoever got the APC ticket would likely dislodge the ruling party from the Alagbaka Government House.

     

    The Mimiko factor

    Not a few believe that the people voted against Mimiko in protest and to stop what they claim to be the extension of his eight-year administration. The governor, they say, squandered the goodwill freely given to him in 2007 and 2012 on the platform of the Labour Party.

    The people, it was learnt, are not happy with the governor in his handling of state affairs.

    “Mimiko rode to power because the civil servants and organised labour supported him in 2007 and 2012. But, he has not reciprocated the goodwill. The workers have not been paid for six months. He was playing on the intelligent of the workers by urging them to vote for his preferred candidate, promising to clear the arrears of their salaries this week”, a stakeholder in the state said.

    Like Ibrahim, the stakeholder said a victory for Jegede would have been tenure elongation for Mimiko.

     

    Jegede not independent

    The PDP flag bearer is seen as a politician tied to his godfather’s apron string. Critics see him a man who lacks the right political initiative to lead a state as sophisticated as Ondo.

    According to investigations, Jegede has no structure outside of Mimiko’s. He allegedly went to sleep for more than a month only to be pushing for a postponement of the election when his name was restored on the ballot by INEC on the orders of a Court of Appeal.

    “It was political suicide for Jegede to have relied solely on Mimiko’s incumbency,” an analyst said. The analyst alluded to the late Chuba Okadigbo’s description of incumbency as a double-edged sword which could either be an asset or a liability. “In the case of the Ondo governorship election, Mimiko’s incumbency has turned out as liability for Jegede”, the analyst said.

     

    Cash-for-votes

    This factor has been dismissed as a non-issue in the Ondo election as all the parties freely deployed money to woo voters. Besides, elections in the country have always been heavily monetised. So, it is wrong of any party to accuse the other of buying votes. They all used money,” a source told The Nation.

     

    Federal might

    This factor cannot be ruled out. An analyst said: “It would be miscalculation for people to think that President Muhammadu Buhari would be indifferent to political developments in any part of the country. You remember he was in Akure personally to campaign. Besides, his aides issued a statement in Abuja a day to the election urging the people to vote the APC.

    “Even if the President was neutral, the APC as the ruling party at the central cannot afford to sit on the fence. Mimiko was a beneficiary of federal power in 2012 when he was returned to office on the Labour Party (LP) platform.

    The administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan backed him against Oke, who was then the PDP flag bearer. The deal was that Mimiko would defect to the PDP after winning the election. In Ekiti State, Dr. Kayode Fayemi was the first to lose election under the APC ticket in 2014 because the PDP candidate, Ayodele Fayose, enjoyed federal backing.”

    Those defending the deployment of federal might, said a loss for Akeredolu in last Saturday’s poll would have been a vote of no confidence on the President and the APC. Besides, it would also have created problem for the 2019 project of the ruling party.

     

    Sophistication of the electorate

    By pitching their tent with Akeredolu, the voters in Ondo State showed their political sophistication. The people are unhappy that Ondo, an oil-producing state, has been finding it difficult to fulfil its statury obligations to workers.

    According to them, using the dwindling allocations from the Federation Account as reason for not paying worker’s salaries was not enough, more so, when neighbouring Edo State was meeting its obligations under former Governor Adams Oshiohmole.

     

    The Smart Card Reader

    The use of the Smart Card Reader (SCR) for electronic accreditation of voters by INEC frustrated any plan to manipulate the electoral process. As predicted in an analysis in The Nation of last Friday, voter turnout was low when compared with the Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) distributed by the electoral umpire. Ordinarily, the introduction of voting immediately after accreditation should have encouraged voter accreditation. But one thing that the INEC has achieved with the new system is the elimination of multiple voting.

     

    A break from the old order

    The election of Akeredolu has opened a new chapter in the Sunshine State. The electorate have shown that they need a break from politicians who have links with the Alagbaka establishment.

    Though Akeredolu once served as the Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice in the state, it was under a military setting. The gate to the Alagbaka Government House has been shot against those with tainted relationship with power since the country returned to participatory democracy 17 years ago.

    As the governor-elect, all eyes would now be on Akeredolu and the expectation of the electorate who overwhelmingly voted for him is no doubt high. Having contested four years ago on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and lost, he is expected to hit the ground running when he formally takes the driver’s seat in February next year.

  • Factors limiting power generation and transmission

    SIR: Of the three components of Nigeria’s electricity matrix – generation, transmission and distribution, the government seems to have been smart enough to hold on to the transmission component, with  the advantage of ascertaining the total quantity of power available at every point in time. It shows how much has been generated and the aggregates as well as how much has been consumed.

    However, the expected quantum leap has failed to materialize substantially, more than two years after the unbundling and privatization in the sector.

    At this point, every concerned citizen and patriot should be asking questions such as: Why have we covered so little mileage? Why have we generated disproportionately low megawatts per thousand dollars compared to other economies? Why have we failed to surpass the 6,500 megawatts landmark which some claim was the figure being generated way back 40 years ago?

    I have based on research, articulated the following issues: First, it takes far too long to get approval/licenses to build power generating plants in Nigeria, sometimes even more than two years. No serious minded investor is willing to tie down funds for this length of time.

    Secondly, it takes far too long to construct approved power projects, sometimes up to four years, partly due to community issues and partly due to cumbersome procurement and logistics procedures.

    Third, the process of procuring fuel to power the plants, especially gas is often disjointed and constitutes a separate project with unique challenges.

    And finally, providing transmission facilities through the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) is a herculean task, subject to the full dose of Nigerian bureaucracy.

    These issues are the common denominators preventing Nigerians from enjoying full benefits from investment in the power sector.

    The above scenario provides a glimpse into the myriad of issues beguiling Nigeria’s power industry.

    Rather than issue licenses to companies to generate power, government should completely deregulate the process by changing the rules to allow the TCN set long-term purchase contracts, guaranteeing a preset take-on price per megawatt generated by any private enterprise.

    The process should prescribe the minimum standard of operation that will allow such companies operate safely, competitively and in an environmentally friendly manner.

    This, for instance, will enable platforms such as the NIPP canvass and link up investors and technical partners in turning out modular power generating facilities across the country on a continual basis.

    Intending investors and proprietors should identify multiple locations suitable for their proposed projects and make prospective communities bid to host the projects based on clearly stated benefits. The winning community will naturally be made to provide guarantees that will ensure smooth construction and operation during the bid process. This will eliminate most of the bottlenecks usually encountered by the operators during construction which causes serious delays and project scope creep resulting in cost escalations.

    The government should carry out a sincere and thorough national transmission needs assessment and identify Original Equipment Manufacturers, Repairs and Spares Providers, conduct bid processes to pre-select preferred equipment suppliers and maintenance service providers. Thereafter, contracts for the upgrade and maintenance of the existing transmission infrastructure and additions would be awarded as needed. The upgrades and additions will be coordinated by the technical department of the TCN. This department must be audited “three times daily”.

    • Dan Aibangbe,

    Lagos.  

  • Slow in China’s growth not a result of internal factors: economist

    China’s economic growth has been slowing since the first quarter of 2010 and the major reasons behind it are not internal structural factors, an economist said.

    As a developing country going through transformation, China definitely has structural problems, but declining growth in the past 18 quarters was caused by the external environment, said Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist of the World Bank.

    He made the remarks at the forum Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises under the New Normal of Chinese Economy held by the National School of Development at Peking University.

    Citing examples of countries that have experienced similar trajectories in the past, including India, Brazil, the Republic of Korea and Singapore, he said that the economic growth rate in Brazil, for example, was 7.5 per cent in 2010, but only 2.2 per cent in 2013, namely it went through a similar slowdown as China, but more violently.

    “You cannot blame China’s internal factors for their dropping growth rates,” Lin said, believing that there are external reasons for the countries to go through such similar growth trajectories.

    He said that China can achieve its 7.5 per cent economic growth target this year, based on its investment opportunities on industrial upgrading, infrastructure, environment and urban management.

    He said that China’s annual growth must average 6.8 per cent to achieve its target of doubling its economy from 2010 to 2020. The annual growth should be at least 7.3 per cent however, to achieve its other goal of doubling per capita income over the same period, he said.

    China’s economic growth rate will stay between 7 per cent to 7.5 per cent in the coming five years or even longer, Lin forecast, adding that in this case, China’s enterprises face two opportunities: overseas mergers and transferring labour-intensive businesses overseas.

    China’s economy grew 10.4 per cent in 2010, 9.3 per cent in 2011, 7.7 per cent in 2012 and 7.7 per cent in 2013.

  • Delta 2015: The factors at play

    Delta 2015: The factors at play

    Although 2015 is still about 30 months away, politicking is already underway across the country. In this report, Assistant Editor AUGUSTINE AVWODE examines the situation in Delta State.

     

    DELTA State Governor Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan is only 18 months into his current tenure, but would-be successors have started jostling for tickets of the various political parties, especially the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The governor ends his mandatory two-term tenure on May, 29, 2015. It promises to be as intense as it would be interesting to watch.

    The elections of 2015 will be determined largely by many factors, primary among which is the ability of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP) to keep and maintain its preeminent position in the state and more importantly, maintain a united front. The PDP has ruled the state from 1999 when the country returned to the path of democratic governance with near absolute monopoly.

    However, the party felt the heat of the presence of the opposition in the April 2011 general election. But even at that, the governor still triumphed and subsequent court cases instituted by Chief Great Ogboru of the Democratic Peoples Party ( DPP)’ the main opposition in the state have so far failed to change the situation. But the DPP made such a phenomenal showing, especially in most populous senatorial district, Delta Central, where it produced the only senator of the party throughout the country in the person of Senator Pius Ewherido.

    To that extent, it would be wise for the ruling party to reckon with the potential threat that the DPP poses to its fortunes in the state by ensuring that nothing is done to expose its flanks. Besides, the DPP has not given up its attempt to upturn the victory registered for Uduaghan by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)

    Of particular importance in the 2015 contest will be power shift. The clamour is almost sending the roof out of the building for a governor of Anioma extraction to be elected in 2015 in the interest of equity, fairness and justice. The clamour among the Igbo speaking part of the state for the 2015 governorship ticket received a boost last week when traditional rulers and elders in Delta North Senatorial District threw their weight behind the quest.

    The royal fathers under the aegis of Anioma Congress at press conference in Asaba, the state capital, also said that the creation of Anioma State was not negotiable and would be pursued with the vigour and commitment that it deserved. The chairman of Secretariat of the congress and former Deputy Governor of Delta State, Sir Benjamin Elue, who addressed the conference, said the congress “will commence the sensitisation of our people with a mass rally” in Agbor.

    According to him, the programme will focus mainly on the “need for Anioma people to support the creation of Anioma State and in the event of not achieving that, to prepare to take over the governance of Delta State come 2015, through one of their own.”

    He highlighted the various dates and venues that the mobilisation train of Anioma Congress would berth in at the ethnic enclaves that make up Anioma nation, adding that the grand finale will be held on November 17, 2012 in Asaba.

    But will it be easy for Anioma to ensure that indeed, “ one of their own” emerges the governor after Uduaghan’s tenure?

    If the state were to still maintain its uni- party status of the James Ibori days, when there was no visible opposition, it would have been as easy as agreeing to disagree among family members on any issue of importance. It helped in no small way to influence the outcome of the 2007 contest. Today, that has changed and that is why opposition from other ethnic groups especially the Urhobo in the Delta Central senatorial district, will make the quest by Anioma to Government House a bit challenging.

    Anioma ‘s claim to the top job is justifiably hinged on fairness, equity and justice. The most the zone has come is the deputy governor. Both the Central and the South Senatorial District would have had eight years each by 2015 since 1999. The same cannot be said of Delta North.

    When it was announced last week by the national secretary of the PDP, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, that the party wishes to stick to its zoning policy, it was applauded by a political pressure group called the Anioma Agenda. Mr. Alex Onwuadiamu, the interim chairman of the group that is committed to the realisation of the governorship dream of the Anioma people in the Northern Senatorial District described it as sweet music to the ears of all minority groups in the country. Onwuadiamu, former secretary-general of the Anioma Political Forum, said the Aniomas had for long been nursing the governorship ambition, but never succeeded and 21 years of Delta State never held that position before.

    He argues: “The governorship of Delta State has gone to central senatorial zone, it is now in the south senatorial zone and by that principle come 2015, and it will be the turn of Anioma people to produce the governor for Delta state that is all we are asking for”.

    Onwudiamu said no one political zone can win election in the State without the support of other groups, so the imperatives of working with other stakeholders cannot be discounted.

    He said: “How we will go about it is by consultation; we have said that we will consult with our brothers and sisters in the south and central, quite a lot of them are already working with us. We will mobilise our people, we will sensitise the entire populace on the need for equity and justice. Very soon there will be a lot of town hall meetings, seminars, symposia on this same issue. We are not just starting with a road show; we are consulting our people quietly and simultaneously. We are consulting various political stakeholders on the need for equity, unity and justice in our polity. It is not something we can do alone; Delta State is made up of three senatorial zones and if any zone, like we have seen in the last election, feels that it can do it alone, it will always meet with failure. That is why we will always seek for reasonable partnership from the south and central. That is how elections are won in Delta State. This one is not going to be an exception”.

    Notwithstanding, the Urhobo group has not hidden its desire to reclaim the governorship position since Chief James Ibori left office and has left no one in doubt in that regard. Many groups have suddenly sprung up in the last few months. They include groups like Urhobo Political Forum (UPF), led by Chief Ighoyota Amori ,Urhobo Political Congress (UPC) headed by Sir Tom Amioku and the Delta Central Political Movement (DCPM) with Olori Magege as Protem Chairman. Interestingly, these are chieftains of the PDP and that is where the keeping the bonds of unity within the party is seen by many analysts as a key factor if it wishes to retain the governorship.

    Though the Central zone poses the most formidable threat to the PDP, it is held in many quarters that if the ruling party can read the writing on the wall correctly, and throws its weight behind a formidable candidate from the Anioma axis, with the support of the South Senatorial district, it stands the chance of preventing protest vote from a section of the state that is particular in producing the governor to satisfy the yearning for a sense of belonging.

    As for the South Senatorial district there is the allegation that the Minister of Niger-Delta Affairs,Elder Godsday Orubebe may be nursing the ambition to be the next y not help the cause of the Aniomas.

     

    Unity as watchword

     

    Analysts are of the view that for the Anioma dream to come true, the first step would be to forge a united front. They argue that a situation where there is a is considerable large number of wealthy and influential aspirants within the PDP who may refuse to step down for one another, may lead to another round of bitterness and rancor within the Party, a situation the PDP can I’ll afford.

    Although none has declared his intentions publicly, some big wigs have been linked with the top job.

    These include current Speaker of Delta legislature Victor Ochei, member representing Aniocha North, Ndudi Elumelu, member representing Aniocha/ Oshimili Federal constituency, Senator Arthur Okowa representing Delta North in the NASS, ex-presidential aide and ex-federal legislator, Dr Cairo Ojougboh, and Chief Godson Obielum.

    Also the current Chief of Staff to Governor Uduaghan and ex-Information Commissioner, Dr Festus Okubor is also said to be nursing a gubernatorial ambition.

    Others from different political parties are multi millionaire businessman Okocha and Democratic People’s Party candidate in the 2010 senatorial election Mr. Ned Nwoko.

    Political observers say this may not augur well for the zone asthese individuals will seek to out done one another.

    Of more importance is the fact that the chairman of the major opposition party, the DPP, Chief Tony Ezeagwu is an Anioma son.

    He refused to be swayed by the zoning and rotation sentiments being held aloft by his brothers. He was quoted as delaring that his party will support any Deltan that emerges through a democratic process, stressing that DPP will not turn back any aspirant on the basis of ethnic consideration as the DPP does not recognise the principle of zoning within its ranks.

    His words, “Well, I am a man with a very broad mind. When you talk about Anioma people clamouring, I will not say what anybody is doing is wrong or right or I am supporting or not supporting. The issue is I am in DPP and the state chairman for that matter. You know that it has been clamoured long ago in PDP that Anioma man must be their candidate based on their zoning arrangement which I am not part of. As far I am concerned if an Anioma man comes to my party to take form, I will not deny him. And if an Urhobo man comes to take form, I will not deny him either because in my party there is no zoning arrangement for now, our party is open for all Deltans. What we believe in is not even who governs the state but who gives the people what they want, dividends of democracy. When you clamour Anioma, Anioma, Anioma, are you telling that Anioma people were not in Ibori’s government?

    Besides, the determination of Ogboru to pursue his petition at the Supreme Court may also be a major decider. Analysts say whether Ogboru wins or not, if he maintains a constant presence in the state and imbues the opposition with equal visibility, like it was in the campaign and election days, he may exert a lot of influence on the outcome of the 2015 election. A chieftain of the DPP, who pleaded for anonymity, however, said most of the party faithful are not happy with the “vanishing act” which Ogboru is said to always exhibit immediately after elections.

    “He did it the other time; this time he has also done it it. He needs to be round to give presence of mind to the boys and followers in the state. People like the party in the state but it seems as if there is no formidable leadership”’ the source explained.

    Many people have also read meanings into what happened last Monday in the ongoing legal battle over the last governorship election. In what seemed a predetermined decision, Ogboru’s counsel, Sebastian Hon (SAN) had shockingly withdrawn Ogboru’s case, asking the Supreme Court to reverse its earlier decision which struck out Ogboru’s appeal against the decision of the appellate court.

    A source in the state said the development would make the opposition more determined than ever. “The lawyer’s decision to withdraw the case came to many observers, especially Ogboru’s team of lawyers and supporters, as a rude shock given the lawyer’s upbeat mood and re-assurance just before the court hearing.

    Ogboru’s camp was dazed by this unhelpful decision as they had no intention to withdraw the case. There were also no orders to the lawyer to withdraw it. Hence their shock and anger over what appear to be an unprecedented complicity with the enemy more so when they (the Ogboru camp) were sure of winning the case. To many legal experts, the only way Ogboru could lose the case was if the case was not heard at all.

    Whatever the case is, the race to Government House Asaba has started and it will take more than just being the majority ethnic group or the appeal to the sentiment of zoning and rotation to win the race. The party that would win the race will the the cohesive one, the one that is able to balance the delicate political equation in the state that often than not exhibit the volatility of quicksilver and ethnic irredentism.