Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola will complete his two terms of eight years in two years time. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the issues that may shape the next governorship election in the Centre of Excellence.
In two years time, Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola (SAN) will complete his second term in office. Ahead of 2015, the governorship race will engage the attention of Lagosians, who have enjoyed the dividends of democracy under Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Babatunde Fashola administrations for an uninterrupted 14 years.
The task before Fashola’s party, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), is searching for another competent politician and astute administrator to run for the next governorship election. Since Lagos State was created in 1967, its residents have participated actively in seven governorship election – 1979, 1983, 1991, 1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011. In those polls, except that of 1991, Lagosians voted along similar and predictable lines. The 1991 exception was due to the inability of the progressives to put their house in order.
By 2015, 18 million Lagosians would be on the march again. Like his predecessor, Senator Bola Tinubu, the hardworking governor will bow out with grace, honour and dignity. However, the incumbency factor will not wane. If the tempo of achievements is sustained till the end, many believe that the progressives will continue to hold sway in the Centre of Excellence.
Challenges of governance
A mega city and economic capital, Lagos, the former Federal Capital Territory, is a mini Nigeria. The feature of the metropolis is its cosmopolitan nature. Its national status as the commercial nerve centre offering buoyant opportunities often compels a mass exodus to the city leaning on the Lagoon. Apart from savouring occupational, social and economic opportunities, the indigenes of other states have become part of the city’s political establishment. Living harmoniously with the people of the five divisions of Epe, Badagry, Ikorodu, Ikeja and Lagos, Nigerians from the hinterland have also increased the voting quality and strength of Lagos. These factors of accommodation and tolerance are great marks of Lagos, a city that harbours representatives of every family in Nigeria. As the non-indigenes become integrated, they exercise the right to vote and be voted for.
Lagos is a special Yoruba city. It is a blend of diverse, complex and sophisticated dwellers who account for the prosperity of the city and the menace and vices that characterise its daily life. Lagos is host to the headquarter of many thriving businesses. Over 60 per cent of the Value Added Tax (VAT) in the country is generated in the state. Despite the relocation of the federal capital to Abuja, many foreign diplomats still prefer to operate from Lagos.
On the Lagos governor’s shoulder is the care and security of over 18 million residents, although he lacks power of control over the police. These residents include the army of restless, jobless youths, unemployed graduates and the masses. Every governor will always shoulder the burden of population explosion as thousands continue to flood the city daily to stay permanently and search for the real and imagined golden fleece. The huge population and influx of people daily has raised the demand for the few public sector employment, water, schools, roads, and other social infrastructure.
Illegal immigrants from poor West African countries join the native beggars who take refuge under the bridges. Alarmed at this scenario, Information and Strategy Commissioner Lateef Ibirogba said Okada riders who are from Niger and Togo have also come to protest against traffic law at the state secretariat. Together with the area boys, they pose a threat to security. The state has not been accorded a special status by the Federal Government, although it shoulders enormous national responsibilities. The next governor will also have to contend with flooding in a state that is exceedingly water lodged. He will inherit many local government roads calling for attention. He will also wake up to the reality that governance is not a tea party.
Mystery of Lagos politics
Lagos politics is full of instructive lessons, which aspirants often refuse to learn. Historically, it is difficult to predict who will emerge as flag bearers of political parties. Lagos State is dynamic. Therefore, the contest is always unpredictable. The first aspirant on the track may never become the winner. The history of governorship contest in Lagos is replete with the emergence of candidates who were never in reckoning before. These emergency candidates have always smiled away with the crown.
Ahead of 1978/79, when the members of the Committee of Friends, which later transformed into the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), were preparing for the governorship election, three heavy weight politicians; – Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, Chief Akanbi Onitiri and Alhaji Ganiyu Dawodu; – were struggling for the slot. Ogunsanya was a federal legislator and Minister of Housing and Surveys. Onitiri was one of the heroes of the treasonable felony trial, who was jailed along with the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo. Dawodu was a councillor, Lagos Town Council chairman and commissioner.
Ogunsanya had approached Awo, urging him to influence the committee to give the ticket to him. But Awo turned down his request, saying that the fate of aspirants would be decided at the party primaries. He later joined Dr. Nnamidi Azikiwe’s Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP). Onitiri was favoured for the job. But he was lured into the NPP by people who promised to make him the presidential candidate, after convincing him that the late Zik would not run. He later died in an auto crash. There was another candidate who was turned down because of his low education. Awo was surprised that he had no library in his house. Alhaji Lateef Jakande, a prominent member of the committee, emerged as the candidate.
In the Third Republic, the proscribed Social Democratic Party (SDP) was highly embraced by Lagosians. Locked in the governorship battle were Chief Dapo Sarumi and Prof. Femi Agbalajobi. However, the two were banned. In the subsequent shadow poll between Prince Abiodun Ogunleye, the candidate of the Jakande Group, and Yomi Edu, who was backed by the Primose, group, the latter won. But he lost to the less popular National Republican Convention (NRC) candidate, Sir Michael Otedola, at the election.
In 1999, Tinubu initially was warming up for the Senate, until the Afenifere leaders of Ijebu origin advised him to signify interest in the governorship, a move that created distrust between them and their colleague, Dawodu, who had favoured Funso Williams for the seat. Had Dawodu, fondly referred to as the god of Lagos, signified his intention to run, he would have emerged as the candidate. Tinubu emerged as the Alliance for Democracy (AD) flag bearer, defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Sarumi, and spent eight years in office. In 2007, the AC had 14 aspirants, including Jimi Agbaje, Ogunleye, Ganiyu Solomon, Oyinlomo Danmole, Tola Kasali, Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Femi Pedro, Tunde Fanimokun, Bayo Ajisebutu, Kaoli Olusanya, Omotilewa Aro-Lambo, Remi Adikwu-Bakare, and Fashola, who was thrown up by Tinubu. At the primaries, the former Chief of Staff secured the ticket.
The platforms
There are two main political parties in Lagos State; the PDP led by Captain Tunji Shelle (rtd) and the ACN led by Otunba Oladele Ajomale. Other platforms are usually spectators. But there was a near shift in that paradigm in 2011 when Labour Party (LP) was briefly promoted by some aggrieved ACN leaders loyal to Fashola. The rebellion was short-lived. Since then, the party has remained on a waiting list as a borrowed platform. Other mushroom parties, including the National Conscience party (NCP) and Mega Social Democratic Party (MSDP). If the merger plan succeed, ACN, ANPP and CPC in Lagos will cease to exist and the All Progressives Congress (APC) will become the dominant party.
In Lagos, the PDP is a roaring lion seeking to devour the progressive bloc. Since 1999, it has repeatedly failed in this venture. Now, the party is on the prowl again. A major setback for the party is its protracted crisis over leadership and distribution of offices and largesse from Abuja. Today, Lagos PDP is being marginalised by the Federal Government. The minister representing the state, Segun Aganga, is not an indigene of the state. Unlike former ministers Bimbo Ogunkelu, Seye Ogunlewe, Femi Anibaba, Yomi Edu and Sarumi, he is not perceived as a politician with a clout and an effective arrowhead.
Sources said that PDP is wooing the Afenifere chieftain, Agbaje. All the caucuses in the polarised and crisis-ridden party are ready to concede the governorship ticket to the successful pharmacist. The lone dissenting voice is the Musiliu Obanikoro group. This has lent credence to the fact that the senator still nurses a governorship ambition. But Agbaje is cautious. If he defects to the PDP, he may be mocking his fine credential and antecedent as a neat politician bubbling with progressive ideas. A source said that Agbaje, who is loved by Lagosians, has the latent ambition of becoming the governor. “The only option left now is for him to use the LP,” added the source, who refused to make further clarifications. During the electioneering, PDP’s candidate may not appeal to Lagosians because the Federal Government has not done much to improve the lot of the state.
For ACN, the slogan is continuity. It is to the credit of the party that it has produced two performers Tinubu and Fashola. The next ACN or APC candidate will use the achievements of these prominent politicians to woo the voters. However, times are changing. Certain forces are emerging from the two divides to press vigorously for internal democracy. It is indisputable that the culture of imposition is being gradually resisted. The advocates of guided primaries are even being challenged. This is a major challenge. If the primaries are thrown open, it is likely that money bags from nowhere may hijack the ticket and deliver it to the highest bidder.
Indigeneship and zoning
For strategic reasons, the PDP has tried to put on the front burner the vexed issue of indigeneship, in a bid to incite indigenous Lagosians against the ruling party. But that is now a weak factor. In 2007, indigeneship was displaced by zoning. But analysts have questioned the merit of the rotational formula in a state where people of all tribes cohabit peacefully. Those who canvassed zoning based on the three senatorial districts also lack convincing argument to support it. The critics of the idea point out that many residents and indigenes of the West District have enjoyed political opportunities in the Central and East districts and vice versa.
The first civilian governor, Jakande, son of the Oluwo of Lagos, is from the Central District, although he has been living in Ilupeju, West District. He has his roots in Omu-Aran, Kwara State. The second executive governor, Otedola, hails from Epe, East District. The third, Tinubu, from the Central, represented the West in the Senate in the Third Republic. Fashola is from the Central. In 2007, Ikorodu elders, led by an eminent lawyer, Babatunde Benson (SAN), pressed for power shift to Ikorodu, East District, claiming that of the five divisions, only Ikorodu and Badagry have not produced the governor. It was a legitimate crusade. However, critics pointed out that the four governors who have ruled the state have never discriminated against any zone or district. They have treated all the zones and district equally as reflected in their distribution of amenities and key appointments.
Also, zoning has not really shaped the contest for governorship, judging by the sheer number of aspirants from across the zones and districts. In the Third Republic, Agbalajobi, Sarumi, Otedola, Edu, (Epe), Adikwu-Bakare (Awori), Alaba Williams, Tokunbo Dosunmu (Central), Ogunleye (Ikorodu) were aspirants. In 2003-2007, when Muritala Asorobi (Central), Olorunfunmi Basorun (East), Tokunbo Kamson (East), Funsho Williams (Central), Wahab Dosunmu (Central) Obanikoro (Central) and Tunde Olowu (West) and Ademola Adeniji-Adele (Central), were in the race, zoning was a non-issue. All these have lent credence to the fact that Lagos will not compromise merit, standard, excellence and track record of the contestants on the alter of zoning.
Religion
Also, in Lagos State, and indeed, in the Southwest, religion has not played a crucial role in the election of the governor. Recently, some faceless groups have invaded the media, clamouring for a Christian governor as successor to Fashola. The groups are said to be enjoying the backing of a Second Republic federal legislator, who had complained about an imaginary marginalisation of Christians. Some Christian bodies have denounced their activities, advising them to desist from heating up the polity, ahead of 2015.
Jakande and his deputy, Rafiu Jafojo, are Muslims. Otedola, a Christian, ran with a Muslim, Alhaja Sinatu Ojikutu. Tinubu, a Muslum, had three Christian deputies; Senator Kofo Bucknor-Akerele, Pedro and Ogunleye. Fashola, another Muslim, has two Christian deputies; Sarah Sosan and Victoria Tawa Orelope-Adefulire. There is nothing to suggest that religion has shaped major state policies. Although Tinubu is a Muslim, his wife, Senator Oluremi, is a member of the Redeemed Christian Church. Fashola’s wife, Abimbola, is a Catholic. Since the Second Republic, religion has also not played any role in the executive council’s composition. Therefore, governorship issues will not revolve around religious leanings. The deciding issues are the antecedents of the parties and candidates, merit and track records.
The aspirants
Many politicians are coveting the Alausa seat of government. In 2015, the race may be crowded. The governor, sources said, may not be indifferent to the nature, character, tendency and sentiments of his successor. The party has a bigger role to play. There will definitely be a search team by the ruling party. But the flag bearer will not come from the moon.
In ACN, there are veteran governorship aspirants who have not retired from politics. But it appears that the generational shift may seal their ambitions. Consistent with the history of political evolution in the state, a dark horse may also not be ruled out. As men are scheming to become governor, women are positioning themselves as the running mate.
The only party chieftain who has openly declared his interest is Senator Ganiyu Solomon. He is the former Chairman of Mushin Local Government and member of the House of Representatives. He was re-elected as senator in 2011.
Sources said that there are three potential aspirants from Epe Division. One of them is a successful medical doctor from Agbowa-Ikosi area, who was commissioner for Health and later, Education. The second is a retired Permanent Secretary and legislator in the Upper Chamber. The third is a three-time state lawmaker beloved by the party leadership.
Eyes are also on the brilliant technocrat and former Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning. When he was being considered for the post in 2007, it leaked. The following day, he was surprised when party followers invaded his residence, hailing him as the governor. On the advice of his wife, he travelled abroad and did not return until the nomination was over. Reflecting on his rejection of the assignment, a first class monarch in Lagos described him as a “run away governor”.
Also likely to vie is a commissioner who is in charge of works. His father was a legislator and commissioner in the Second Republic. He is an easy-going professional. Sources also said that his colleague in the traffic ministry is eyeing the position. The former university teacher and rights activist is the son of a prominent Awori leader. Another source said that the Commissioner for Agriculture is also interested.
It has also been speculated that a prominent journalist, lawyer and two-time commissioner is interested in succeeding his boss. So is the legal scholar and former university don who was a member of the State Executive Council from 1999 to 2011. Another lawyer from Surulere itching to succeed Fashola is in the Federal Parliament.
