Successful political figures are often defined by their ability to distill a message that resonates with their audience.
As a fresh-faced state governor back in 1992, the then US Democratic Party presidential candidate, Bill Clinton, understood he could not prevail against the incumbent George Bush on matters of national security at a time when the country was at war.
But while the Washington elite and television talking heads understood that America’s national security interests could be negatively impacted by developments in the Gulf, the average US citizen who at the best of times is insular and couldn’t be bothered by developments thousands of miles away, was more interested in the fact that the national economy was struggling.
Clinton was savvy enough to key into that latent vein of discontent in the electorate that year and came up with a phrase that captured the issue that would determine the race. It wasn’t the Gulf War. ‘It’s the economy, stupid,’ he declared. The rest is history.
President Muhammadu Buhari and the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) triumphant 2015 campaign pulled off something similar. The candidate chose not to promise everything under the sun; he simply boiled his agenda down to three words: economy, security and corruption. At every campaign stop he hammered home these three themes.
The focus on these three issues was largely down to the fact that at that point they were Nigeria’s most obvious problems and the Achilles Heel of then President Goodluck Jonathan’s government.
Such was the depth of dissatisfaction with the performance of the sitting government that the APC’s change seduction struck a chord with the hearts of the people. Only a deep sense of rejection could have caused Buhari who lost to Jonathan in 2011 by 10 million votes, to prevail in 2015 by three million votes. How did the incumbent manage to blow 10 million votes?
Something awful, even traumatic, happened in those four years to trigger the political sea change that happened. It was the economy – falsely arrayed in borrowed robes as ‘Africa’s largest’, but which was still plagued by mass unemployment, fuel scarcity and power outages.
It was insecurity defined by a Boko Haram insurgency that actually carved out its ‘caliphate’ on sovereign Nigerian territory. Bombs were going off in barracks, market and in major cities across the north. Adding the insult to our collective injuries, we became the captive audience of Abubakar Shekau’s regular ghoulish video productions.
It was a corruption epidemic that was finally embraced by an officialdom that ought to have been its nemesis. Ministers and other high officials of state caught in dodgy endeavours were left to get away with murder. Confronted with unending allegations about mindboggling theft in high places, an increasingly defensive Jonathan chose to bury his head in the sand.
By the time he came up for air at the start of his presidential campaign in Lagos, he acknowledged he had a problem by promising he would fight corruption with technology. Even if his late awakening had been sincere, it rang hollow pitched against the pledges of a Buhari who not only had words to offer, but also a reputation to back them up.
The easy part was distilling the message; the difficulty lay in delivering results in short order. Unfortunately for Buhari and his party the problems they were tasked to solve don’t have overnight solutions.
A monoculture economy is not going to be diversified in a matter of months. But when the financial mainstay crashes under your watch you have to deal with the painful fallout across the land.
The hungry and the frustrated have issues that need to be dealt with immediately; these people are not amenable to logical discussions that trace problems to their roots. They received the promise of change with the faith of children who don’t care how daddy will pull it off. You may call it change, call it magic, they just want a dramatic turnaround in their lot.
An already impossible job is made worse when politics is thrown into the mix. There is the standard politics of an imperfect federation that often triggers movements for self determination in different parts of the land.
Today, the so-called Niger Delta Avengers are avenging themselves on pipelines in anonymous creeks. This latest manifestation of Nigeria’s discontented hordes has economy implications for foreign exchange earnings and power generation. When the oil doesn’t flow and gas cannot be fed to plants, the consequences are grave.
But there is an even worse variant that pollutes the polity: it is the politics of bitterness which rank odour hangs over the land long after the 2015 elections. In recent memory last year’s politicking would go down as the most negative.
There are many who couldn’t bear the thought of Buhari becoming president they actually wished him dead. He survived rumours of illness and imminent demise and found his way into Aso Villa to the chagrin of his foes. For many of these people the death wish tweaked has become a failure wish.
Even some who claimed to have voted the president have been heard to mutter ‘Oh God, we made a mistake.’ Others simply ask in bemusement ‘Is this the change we voted for?’
Yes, the price of petrol has gone up and the exchange rate of the naira against major global currencies has crashed over the last 12 months. But the question we never ask is ‘why.’ Actions have consequences; inaction also has its repercussion. What we are experiencing in 2016 is partly the result of what was done or not done in the last few decades.
But then a sense of perspective is not our strongest point as a people, and if there was a global impatience index, Nigerians would rank in the top 10.
When people ask ‘is this the change we voted for’, I answer yes. Buhari’s ‘Change’ is like the elephant described by six blind men. Each one had a distinct sense of what he had just touched and explained it in his own unique way.
By voting Buhari, we repudiated the Jonathanian way of doing business. But it now appears that what some actually wanted was only a change of personnel. They may have wanted Jonathan, Dame Patience and their hangers on out, but business as usual.
However, change, as the word implies simply means an alteration of the status quo for the better or worse. Sometimes, things may get worse before they get better.
The optimist in me looks at the first year of the Buhari presidency and I see the progress made in the North East against Boko Haram insurgents. I acknowledge the efforts of the administration in fighting graft. However, the government has its work cut out on the economic front. Its one step forward two steps backward actions on some issues are not the sort of moves that inspire confidence in the business community. Here’s hoping that as the administration enters its second year it would walk with a steadier gait.
