The Nation Newspaper

Tag: forecast

  • Ship owners, importers back NIMASA’s 5% growth  forecast 

    The Nigerian Shipowners Association (NISA), importers and clearing agents have urged the Federal Government to work with the  five per cent growth forecast by the Nigerian Maritime Administrator and Safety Agency ( NIMASA).

    According to them, there has been a steady increase in the level of investments and freight earnings from the sector, urging the government and its agencies at the ports to work with the forecast and see how to improve on it.

    Its President Alhaji Aminu Umar said NISA aligned with the five per cent maritime growth, forecast by NIMASA. He added that commercial banks had shown interest in financing indigenous ship owners, contrary to what obtained during the 2016 economic recession.

    He noted that foreign fund managers have been coming into the country to discuss how to fund maritime assets.

    Umar said there was no doubt that the industry could achieve the five per cent growth and probably surpass it.

    “Based on what we have seen since the beginning of this year, we believe we can surpass the five per cent growth forecast, if not double digit We believe it would be close to the double digit in the maritime sector.

    “The foreign reserve of the country has gone up, this showed a positive impact in the economy, which means that  our banks have the funds  to fund shipping. We have seen positive impact on the banks because they are already talking about funding a lot of maritime assets. So in my own opinion, the outlook is very positive,” he said.

    Umar continued: “Two years ago, banks did not even entertain you talking about funding; we are now seeing a lot of positive investments, a lot of private equity funds are now coming to invest in maritime assets. We have seen foreign funds managers, who are coming from Europe and are also talking about funding maritime assets here. We believe the outlook would be great for this year and 2019.

    “For the past two years, the freight earnings have been down  since 2016, but we are looking at it now that the freight earnings is already going up.”

    The Association of Nigerian Licensed Customs Agents (ANLCA) outgoing President, Prince Olayiwola Shittu, said NIMASA’s five per cent growth projection was posible because the world maritime economic situation was improving and Nnigeria would benefit from it.

    According to him, many importers are bringing cargoes to the country instead of diverting them to neigbouring countries’ports, while ship owners are planning to invest in the industry because freight rates are going up.

    “The projection made by NIMASA is one of the tools we need to grow the maritime industry. The forecast will assist in the areas of having and keeping accurate records and plan for the future.

    “ The forecast will help to know if we are able to meet our target and if there are things we must put in place like good road net work, quick evacuation of cargoes, review of government policy and tariffs at the ports, among others. We pray that this year and next year will be the leading light to the peak in freight and maritime robust earnings for the country,” Shittu said.

    An importer, Mr Felix Abraham, urged the government to pay adequate attention to the industry because of the huge potential it holds for the nation. Maritime trade, he said, is the bedrock of the global business, and its connection to import, export and the growth of the world economy.

    “ That is why the five per cent growth forecast by NIMASA is a tool we must all work with to grow the economy,” Abraham said.

     

  • Prestige Assurance projects N9b forecast for GPI by 2021

    Prestige Assurance Plc plans to boost its gross premium income by N9 billion in 2021, its Managing Director, Dr. Balla Swamy,  has said.

    He made this known at the presentation of the company’s ‘Fact behind the Figure’ on the floor of the Nigerian Stock  Exchange (NSE).

    The company’s gross premium income, he said, is expected to grow from N3.4 billion in 2017, N5.2billion in 2018; N6.6 billion in 2019; N7.5billion in 2020 and N9billion at the end of 2021.

    Swamy stressed that despite the harsh economic conditions faced with acute shortage of forex its firm still tried to record significant profit when compared with 2016 to 2015 and which is on the increase in 2017.

    He said:“The net premium of the company is projected to grow from 45 per cent in 2017 to 60 per cent by the end of 2021, while profit before tax will grow from N877million in 2017 to N3.078 billion by the end of 2021.

    “Profit after tax was also forecast to grow from N567million in 2017 to N2.093billion by the end of 2021.”

    On risk retention, he said the company’s risk retention stands at 42 per cent as at third quarter, ended in September 2017 (Q3) when compared to 43 per cent it reported in same period of 2016.

    He maintained that the company was technically viable to spread its assumption  risks with reinsurer, which guarantee its continuous existence.

    He called on the Federal Government to facilitate ease of doing business, at least, by amending the companies income Tax Act in relation to computation of insurance taxation, easy entry of foreign investment and provision of suitable environment, which guarantees return on investment (ROI).

    He explained that the company as at third quarter 2017 current ratio stands at 1.8 as against 1.9 reported in 2016, affirming that Prestige Assurance can confidently pay its liabilities without having recourse to borrow or disposal of assets. This, he said, is evidence in timely payment of claims.

  • Prestige Assurance projects N9b forecast for GPI by 2021

    Prestige Assurance Plc plans to boost its gross premium income by N9 billion in 2021, its Managing Director, Dr. Balla Swamy,  has said.

    He made this known at the presentation of the company’s ‘Fact behind the Figure’ on the floor of the Nigerian Stock  Exchange (NSE).

    The company’s gross premium income, he said, is expected to grow from N3.4 billion in 2017, N5.2billion in 2018; N6.6 billion in 2019; N7.5billion in 2020 and N9billion at the end of 2021.

    Swamy stressed that despite the harsh economic conditions faced with acute shortage of forex its firm still tried to record significant profit when compared with 2016 to 2015 and which is on the increase in 2017.

    He said:“The net premium of the company is projected to grow from 45 per cent in 2017 to 60 per cent by the end of 2021, while profit before tax will grow from N877million in 2017 to N3.078 billion by the end of 2021.

    “Profit after tax was also forecast to grow from N567million in 2017 to N2.093billion by the end of 2021.”

    On risk retention, he said the company’s risk retention stands at 42 per cent as at third quarter, ended in September 2017 (Q3) when compared to 43 per cent it reported in same period of 2016.

    He maintained that the company was technically viable to spread its assumption  risks with reinsurer, which guarantee its continuous existence.

    He called on the Federal Government to facilitate ease of doing business, at least, by amending the companies income Tax Act in relation to computation of insurance taxation, easy entry of foreign investment and provision of suitable environment, which guarantees return on investment (ROI).

    He explained that the company as at third quarter 2017 current ratio stands at 1.8 as against 1.9 reported in 2016, affirming that Prestige Assurance can confidently pay its liabilities without having recourse to borrow or disposal of assets. This, he said, is evidence in timely payment of claims.

  • December inflation figure contradicts forecast

    December inflation figure contradicts forecast

    The Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane missed his forecast for December inflation figure. He had predicted that inflation would slide to 18.3 per cent in December, saying it would be the first decline in 14 months.
    But instead of sliding, annual inflation rose in to 18.55 per cent from 18.48 per cent in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. A separate food index rose to 17.39 per cent from 17.19 per cent in November, the statistics office said.
    According to Rewane, the direction of the inflation downwards will come as a relief to the monetary policy committee, which has been waiting for the change in trend for almost an eternity.
    He said after exhausting every available solution, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had almost given up on the war against the indicator.
    He said: “Even if estimates actualise and inflation declines, it is still a mile away from the CBN’s comfort zone of six to nine per cent. “A December decline coinciding with a sharp increase in the Primary Manufacturing Index is good news; it might be an indication that consumer resistance to retail price increases may be driving prices down. It might also project that a high inventory level and borrowing cost environment are coaxing producers to bring down their prices.”
    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to meet between January 23 and 24. An anticipated decline in inflation could open up the floor to considerations for a more accommodative monetary policy stance, he said.
    However, the likelihood that rates will be revised this January is slim, as the committee is very likely to adopt a wait and see approach to determine if this new development is the beginning of a trend or a flash in the pan.
    Rewane explained that the change in headline trajectory may come as no surprise when some fundamental factors are considered.
    “First when looking at drivers of inflation, apart from the Keynesian demand pull and cost push factors, monetary influences are another major factor to push up or contract consumer prices.
    “There is a positive relationship between money supply growth and rising inflation. Therefore, a contraction in money supply will trigger a tapering of rising consumer prices,” he said.
    He said the income constraint and sustained increase in productivity in the agricultural sector, observed in the economy, also serve to reinforce the anticipated change in inflationary trend.
    “While many other indicators have declined dramatically such as purchasing power and the value of the naira, agricultural productivity has helped support gross domestic output with the sector enjoying two consecutive quarters of sustained positive growth. The anticipated change in the inflationary trend can serve as good news to the Nigerian public who has sought respite from Nigeria’s economic woes. However, there are certain core components of the consumer basket that may increase,” he said.
    Also, diesel prices have maintained a persistent increase, which in turn feeds into costs of production and logistics (cost push factors). Diesel prices were selling at an average rate of N260/ltr in December, up 62.2 per cent year-to-date.
    He said the factor is likely to widen the divide between the rural and urban areas in terms of inflation, as urban inflation usually incorporates rural inflation plus transportation costs. In addition, financial costs are also ridiculously high and impeding output level. Manufacturers are servicing very expensive debts as well as operating in an environment with highly priced and sometimes unavailable loans.
    “The urban index reinforces our forecast of a decline in headline inflation. The FDC Lagos urban inflation index decreased to 11.74 per cent in December. This is a decrease of 0.72 per cent from the November rate of 12.45 per cent. The year-on-year food index decreased to 13.50 per cent from 15.49 per cent in November while the non-food year-on-year index decreased to 10.85 per cent from 10.92 per cent,” he said.

  • World Bank cuts Nigeria’s growth forecast

    World Bank cuts Nigeria’s growth forecast

    The World Bank cut Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for this year, citing weakness from oil-output disruptions and low prices.

    The lender, in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report, said Africa’s biggest economy is expected to grow 0.8 percent, down from an estimate of 4.6 per cent in January. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.5 percent in 2017, it said.

    Foreign-exchange restrictions, fuel shortages and a plunge in oil production and prices have hit the economy, the bank said in the report. Nigeria’s economy contracted for the first time since 2004 in the first quarter and central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele warned in May that a recession was imminent after a four-month delay in the nation’s budget stalled economic stimulus programs.

    Faced with the price-slump for oil, the key source of government revenue, the central bank has restricted access to foreign exchange. Nigeria has held its currency, the naira, at 197-199 per dollar since March 2015, unlike some other oil producers that have let their currencies weaken

  • World Bank lowers crude price forecast

    World Bank lowers crude price forecast

    The World Bank has lowered this year’s forecast for crude oil prices to $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report from $51 per barrel in its October projections.

    The lower forecast reflects a number of supply and demand factors. These include sooner-than-anticipated resumption of exports by the Islamic Republic of Iran, greater resilience in U.S. production due to cost cuts and efficiency gains, a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and weak growth prospects in major emerging market economies, according to the World Bank’s latest quarterly report.

    Oil prices fell by 47 per cent last year and are expected to decline, on an annual average, by another 27 per cent this year. However, from current lows, a gradual recovery in oil prices is expected over the course of the year, for several reasons. First, the sharp oil price drop early this year does not appear fully warranted by fundamental drivers of oil demand and supply, and is likely to partly reverse. Second, high-cost oil producers are expected to sustain persistent losses and increasingly make production cuts that are likely to outweigh any additional capacity coming to the market. Third, demand is expected to strengthen somewhat with a modest pickup in global growth.

    The anticipated oil price recovery is forecast to be smaller than the rebounds that followed sharp drops in 2008, 1998, and 1986. The price outlook remains subject to considerable downside risks.

    “Low prices for oil and commodities are likely to be with us for some time. While we see some prospect for commodity prices to rise slightly over the next two years, significant downside risks remain,” said John Baffes, Senior Economist and lead author of the Commodities Markets Outlook.

  • Trend forecast for 2015

    Trend forecast for 2015

    CLASSINESS and style are the word that describes the dazzling range of fashion merchandise that rocked 2014. And keeping in tune with the changing styles and fads has been the essential features. The start of a New Year does not mean that the New Year fashion and trend will be all completely new. Although, there will be those distinctly new elements and those distinctly new themes, but a lot of the clothing and accessories we will be wearing in the early part of 2015 (Jan-Feb.) will be influenced by the most recent season (later part of 2014).

    Given the buzz that fashion shows and new fads created in 2014, 2015 is certain to be an eventful year fashion-wise. First, we should expect designers to be daring and much more innovative in 2015. This new spirit is going to be driven by the rise in the demand for trendy fashion accessories.

    Going forward, we expect to see a serious infusion of animal skin fabric and designed local print.

    What to get, what to keep and what to throw away all together? These are questions we are bound to ask as we move into any new year. For 2015 the options of what to keep are manly: you simply need to know how to give those key trend pieces from last year a 2015 refresh.

    Skirt fashion- fashionable skirts in 2015 will have a great deal of different variants, especially knee- length (short skirt). Different materials, textures, combinations of colours and famous classical cuts will make every skirt in this season very beautiful and unique. Last year, we found inspiration in indigenous fabrics in skaters, assymetrical, peplum style. Indigenous fabrics like Ankara, aso oke (Net with embroidery & Alari) and Kampala were stylishly used to sew 60s, 70s and 80s, even 20’s type’s western dresses.

    What trends do you see becoming big in 2015? For Oluchi Gideon of  Sew-to fit Fashion Academy 2015 is going to be an exciting year for the fashion industry. ‘We will be seeing a lot of glitters in fabrics and accessories, skaters and peplums too are out with 90s pointy with metallic details, to mention a few’ she said

    Ifeyinwa Shekinah Odo of house of MISIANO said local fabrics like Ankara, Tie and Dye (adire), and french lace to mention but a few are the fabric s to watch out for in 2015. She said

    “watch out for more lace style inspirations, Ankara prints with blings, floaty fabrics like chiffon& silk, soft organza& jersey, vintage velvet, floral& duchess satin, dry and floral cotton” According to her all these fabrics are going to be use for designing red carpet and casual wears in 2015.

    “What people wear in the last quarter of 2014 will determine the fashion trend for January. There will be some changes in the first quarter of the year, new styles would emerge. Ankara sun dresses, damask jackets/blazers on jeans, Ankara gypsy dresses with sun hat, skater skirts,  roomy tunics on pants and lots of Ankara jump shorts and jumpsuits with wide brim sun hats; and a bit of vintage inspired designs, little lace dresses…these are styles that you should watch out for and they will rock 2015 like fire”

    It is certain that fashion designers will experiment with new designs judging by what happened last year, where lots of fabrics of different hues and pattern were experimented.

    Fashion is never stagnant! In the area of men’s fashion, it is going to be more of striped linen fabrics, guinea brocade, Ankara, kente, lots of lace without holes and customized jackets. The female fashion is certainly going to be dominated by little dresses (baby doll dresses), smartly sown skirts and tops, Victorian gowns, tank tops, smart handbags and fashion accessories sown with Ankara Fabrics.

    Ankara will still be the king even though it would continue to be mixed with other fabrics. The projection of the Ex-FADAN president Prince Akanni Oyetusi of Noble Afrik for the year is similar to that of Trend. According to him 2015 will be an interesting year for the fashion industry. The weather and the environment would be a major determinant of what the 2015 fashion trend would look like.

    “Indigenous fabrics have come to stay. Today, we find out that at events, social and parties and international runways, local fabrics are the order of the day. And the acceptance is spreading daily when compared to some years back when they were seen as the fabric for the downtrodden,” he said.

    In textiles watch as lace, chord and mesh make a comeback!

    *Mesh, chord and lace fabric dresses gained more popularity both on the runway and off the stage. So, they are going to be more visible in 2015.

    *Floral, animal and pastel prints will surely come back with a bang.

    *Handbags will certainly get bigger and clutch purses will get trendier and longer in width.

    *Craze for embellished accessories: Like it was the case last year, 2015 is going to be year where almost all fashion stuff and home decor items will be embellished with colourful beads, stones, sequins, metals and beads.

    *Like it was last year, 2015 is going to be another year of tiny waist cincher (belts)

    *LBD, one-shoulder, strapless dress will surely be visible

    *Heelless wedge, pumps, embellished sandals/slippers, ballets, clog, ankle boots. While trainers, canvass and fewer loafers are also something to look out for

    *Suit will get more stylish

    *Ankara bags, shoes and accessories will be on the rampage!

    *For women’s evening wear, puzzle-style dresses as well as those with darker and bigger floral patterns will also emerge. Also, dresses with lower backs may be more pronounced for that sexier look.

    *Men’s outfit will veer towards the conservative side

  • Experts forecast mixed fortunes for stock market

    Experts forecast mixed fortunes for stock market

    FOLLOWING the all negative outlook which the nation’s stock market presented in the past week, some market analysts apparently playing the devil’s advocate have further predicted a lull in the coming weeks.

    Citing the performance of Nigerian Stock market weekly summary, in which the equity market rounded off on a negative note, losing 160bps W-o-W thus bringing the composite index to negative 2.1per cent as the market capitalisation dipped N181.8bn to close at N13.4tn, the market watchers said the performances indices speak volume of what to expect in the preceding weeks.

    Recalled that activity levels measured by aggregate volume and value declined 14.4 per cent and 5.3 per cent apiece to 553.9m and N5.9bn, just as most sector indices within our coverage closed in the negative territory W-o-W with the exception of the Consumer Goods Index (0.4 per cent) due to the price appreciation in Champions Breweries (54.5 per cent) and Nigerian Breweries (2.3 per cent).

    Meanwhile, the All other indices shed points led by the Banking Index (2.6 per cent) due to the selloff in Zenith Bank (6.9%), Stanbic (4.7 per cent) and UBA (4.1 per cent).

    Similarly, the Oil and Gas Index lost 2.3 per cent due to the profit taking in OANDO (4.9 per cent), Total (2.5 per cent) and Forte Oil (2.0 per cent), while the Insurance Index and the NSE Industrial Index declined 1.8 per cent and 0.6 per cent W-o-W respectively.

    Top gainers for the week include Ikeja Hotel (60.2 per cent), Champion Breweries (54.5 per cent), Conoil (10.2 per cent), Learn Africa (6.7 per cent) and Live Stock (6.2 per cent), while AG Leventis (13.6 per cent), Guinness (12.6 per cent), PZ (8.8 per cent), UAC-PROP (8.5 per cent) and Mansard (8.0 per cent) led the loser’s list W-o-W.

    According to the analysts, the deteriorating macroeconomic outlook as regards declining oil prices and broader bearish global market sentiment has continued to spur reversals.

    The analysts, however, said they anticipate the publication of Q3:2014 earnings may curb the current run on the local bourse next week.

    While reviewing the Interbank Money Market, the analysts further said Interbank rates rose on Wednesday by average 14bps to 12.3 per cent, with benchmark Call and OBB rates rising 11bps and 21bps to 11.8 per cent and 10.5 per cent respectively.

    The DMO, they stressed, also offered N131.8bn in Treasury Bills, while N64.9bn was sold. The poor subscription rate can majorly be attributed to the weakening FPI demand for the domestic paper spurred by caution with the macroeconomic conditions.

    The inflow of NTB maturities worth N131.8bn on Thursday had mild effect on liquidity levels as this was offset by DMB’s provision for the Monday’s RDAS auction while the CBN also mopped up N27.9bn.

    In a trend similar to the previous week, the CBN’s attempt to mop up liquidity seemed futile, as its OMO instruments were shunned by DMBs.

    Notably, the OMO auction held on Friday witnessed no subscription. We anticipate this difficulty in mopping up liquidity will be underscored by the maturing N978.3bn AMCON bonds scheduled for 31st of October 2014.OLLOWING the all negative outlook which the nation’s stock market presented in the past week, some market analysts apparently playing the devil’s advocate have further predicted a lull in the coming weeks.

    Citing the performance of Nigerian Stock market weekly summary, in which the equity market rounded off on a negative note, losing 160bps W-o-W thus bringing the composite index to negative 2.1per cent as the market capitalisation dipped N181.8bn to close at N13.4tn, the market watchers said the performances indices speak volume of what to expect in the preceding weeks.

    Recalled that activity levels measured by aggregate volume and value declined 14.4 per cent and 5.3 per cent apiece to 553.9m and N5.9bn, just as most sector indices within our coverage closed in the negative territory W-o-W with the exception of the Consumer Goods Index (0.4 per cent) due to the price appreciation in Champions Breweries (54.5 per cent) and Nigerian Breweries (2.3 per cent).

    Meanwhile, the All other indices shed points led by the Banking Index (2.6 per cent) due to the selloff in Zenith Bank (6.9%), Stanbic (4.7 per cent) and UBA (4.1 per cent).

    Similarly, the Oil and Gas Index lost 2.3 per cent due to the profit taking in OANDO (4.9 per cent), Total (2.5 per cent) and Forte Oil (2.0 per cent), while the Insurance Index and the NSE Industrial Index declined 1.8 per cent and 0.6 per cent W-o-W respectively.

    Top gainers for the week include Ikeja Hotel (60.2 per cent), Champion Breweries (54.5 per cent), Conoil (10.2 per cent), Learn Africa (6.7 per cent) and Live Stock (6.2 per cent), while AG Leventis (13.6 per cent), Guinness (12.6 per cent), PZ (8.8 per cent), UAC-PROP (8.5 per cent) and Mansard (8.0 per cent) led the loser’s list W-o-W.

    According to the analysts, the deteriorating macroeconomic outlook as regards declining oil prices and broader bearish global market sentiment has continued to spur reversals.

    The analysts, however, said they anticipate the publication of Q3:2014 earnings may curb the current run on the local bourse next week.

    While reviewing the Interbank Money Market, the analysts further said Interbank rates rose on Wednesday by average 14bps to 12.3 per cent, with benchmark Call and OBB rates rising 11bps and 21bps to 11.8 per cent and 10.5 per cent respectively.

    The DMO, they stressed, also offered N131.8bn in Treasury Bills, while N64.9bn was sold. The poor subscription rate can majorly be attributed to the weakening FPI demand for the domestic paper spurred by caution with the macroeconomic conditions.

    The inflow of NTB maturities worth N131.8bn on Thursday had mild effect on liquidity levels as this was offset by DMB’s provision for the Monday’s RDAS auction while the CBN also mopped up N27.9bn.

    In a trend similar to the previous week, the CBN’s attempt to mop up liquidity seemed futile, as its OMO instruments were shunned by DMBs.

    Notably, the OMO auction held on Friday witnessed no subscription. We anticipate this difficulty in mopping up liquidity will be underscored by the maturing N978.3bn AMCON bonds scheduled for 31st of October 2014.

  • August forecast pegs inflation at 8.64%

    The headline inflation will remain relatively unchanged at 8.64 per cent in August from the 8.7 per cent recorded in July, the Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited, Bismarck Rewane, has said.

    Rewane said in the FDC report for September that the forecast was supported by the moderation in the food index of FDC’s Lagos urban inflation.

    In August, FDC’s Lagos urban inflation was unchanged from July’s 11.57 per cent. This was due to a marginal increase in the non-food basket and a decline in the food basket, thereby creating a no effect.

    The interbank rates rose to a year-high average of 21 per cent per-annum in response to the monetary policy decision on the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for public sector deposits in July. The policy took effect on August 7, as the Central Bank of Nigeria debited N1 trillion from banks’ accounts.

    This, he said, caused an initial squeeze in liquidity which forced interbank rates to trend up-wards but thereafter stabilised to an average of 14.25 per cent per annum, in August, compared to July’s aver-age of 11.8 per cent per annum.

    We expect the impact of the CRR debit to abate by the end of third quarter and rates return to the two per cent band of the benchmark policy rate due to our muted inflation outlook. Despite the CRR debit, bond yields for two-year, three-year, five-year, seven –year and 10-year averaged 13.33 per cent per annum in August compared to 13.57 per cent in July.

    “Considering the downside risks to the naira coupled with the upside risks to government spending and benign inflationary conditions, we believe that debt investors will hold their current position. This is because the equities market performed poorly in the month amidst huge sell pressures occasioned by concerns for corporate performance given the high interest rates and global economic pressures,” he said.

    He explained that traditionally, high interest rates implies exodus of funds from equities market and with increased risks and liquidity concerns, portfolio managers are expected to favor fixed income.

     

  • ‘6.5 % GDP growth forecast not achievable’

    ‘6.5 % GDP growth forecast not achievable’

    The expected economic growth of 6.5 per cent predicted by the Bureau of Statistics may not be achieved, an economic advisory group, has said.

    In a report, the Resources and Trust Company (RTC) Advisory and Strategic Group, an independent economic advisory body, said the economy is not expected to achieve much growth because of certain challenges.

    “The economy is forecast to grow by 6.5 per cent in the second quarter. Economic growth will probably slow down after and this may be caused by the massive insecurity in the Northern area; scarce credit to SMEs and the private sectors, as well as the poor oil sector output growth,” it said.

    It said the major positive maybe the conclusion of power sector privatisation, which portends short term efficiency gains, and medium to long term sector transformation.

    It said the negative remains insecurity, especially the devastating effect on output from the Northern and the dampening effect on investment. Other significant negatives, according to the reports, are the outstanding PIB and downstream oil sector deregulation plus expenditure of N2 trillion yearly on wasted oil subsidies.

    It said though the administration will advance policy in significant areas, such as agriculture, housing, transportation, education and other infrastructure, it will be distracted by the increasing focus on the 2015 election.

    The reports said the non-oil sector has been affected by the incidence of flooding, as well as muted consumer demand, adding that the Infrastructural challenges will hampered manufacturing.

    The reports said a larger estimated economy would most likely boost interest in Nigerian stocks, especially goods companies looking to unlock the consumer potential of the country.

    It says:”It will also improve Nigeria’s debt to GDP ratio, currently around 16 percent. But Nigeria’s tax revenues, seen as woeful for a country of this size, will look even smaller.

    “Foreign aid donors may also find it harder to justify giving support to Nigeria if it becomes a middle-income state.

    Despite roaring growth rates, 61 percent of Nigerians – or 100 million people – still live in absolute poverty.

    “It is very clear that middle-income is growing, it is very clear that consumption is improving. The major problem is ensuring that this is broad based”.