Tag: Foreign exchange

  • NEC demands review of foreign exchange policy

    NEC demands review of foreign exchange policy

    The National Economic Council (NEC)  yesterday asked the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to urgently review its foreign exchange policy.

    The NEC, chaired by Acting President Yemi Osinbajo, noted that the exchange rate, which had adversely affected the prices of goods and services, is no longer sustainable.

    The naira exchanges for N510 to one dollar at the parallel market.

    Nassarawa State Deputy Governor  Silas Aghara, who was joined by his Rivers State counterpart, Dr. Ipalibo Harry Banigo, Finance Minister Mrs. Kemi Adeosun and Agriculture Minister Audu Ogbeh, briefed State House correspondents at the end of the  meeting at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.

    He said CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele pleaded for time, patience and understanding of Nigerians in reviving the economy.

    He said: “After a brief presentation on forex policy options by the CBN governor, Council members generally expressed concern over the current situation of the exchange rate and called for an urgent review of the current forex policy, especially the gap between interbank and the parallel market rates.

    “The CBN governor sued for patience and understanding, assuring that the situation is being closely managed.

    “At today’s council, we were only trying to encourage the CBN governor that given the general outcry in the country, so that they can show understanding and patience with the CBN governor in what he is doing to revive the economy. Generally, we support the position of the CBN and we are calling on Nigerians to equally show understanding in what they are doing,” he said

    Mrs. Adeosun said $250 million was approved by NEC to be injected into the Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF).

    She said that the approval was made after adopting the report and accounts of the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority presented by the Managing Director, Mr. Uche Orii.

    Mrs. Adeosun also hinted that the Excess Crude Accounts where the $250 million would be sourced stood at $2,458,382,844.03 as at February 15, 2017.

    She said: “Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Uche Orii presented a report to Council on the NSIA annual reports and accounts for the year ended 2015 and update on 2016 activities.

    “In its report to NEC, Council members were informed that Nigeria Sovereign Wealth Fund (NSWF) has the highest ranking in Africa in terms of performance and capitalisation.

    “The report highlights, among others, the following: Financial performance 2014 to Q3 2016; Update and investment strategy on the NSIA; Future Generation Fund (FGF); NSIA infrastructure strategy and Agriculture Fund and NSIA – Old Mutual Real Estate Co-Investment Vehicle, among others.

    “NSIA plans to increase domestic infrastructure investment in 2017 as there are compelling opportunities in the environment.

    “NSIA will also focus on “Social Infrastructure”, including investments in the form of affordable housing and healthcare through the development of specialist hospitals.

    “Council while adopting the report of the NSIA, decided to inject a fresh $250 million into the SWF sourced from the ECA.

    “Minister of Finance reported to the Council that the balance in Excess Crude Account (ECA) stood at USD 2,458,382,844.03 as at February 15, 2017.”

    Mrs. Adeosun also told reporters that approval was given for appointment of Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority board members.

    “Minister of Finance reported that a member each from the six geo-political zone had been nominated as follows: North-East  –  Mrs. Halima Buba – Non Executive Director, North West – Mr. Bello Maccido – Non Executive Director,

    North Central – Ms. Lois Laraba Machunga-Disu – Non Executive Director, South West – Mr. Babajide Zetilin – Non Executive Director,

    South East – Mr. Urum Kalu Eze – Non Executive Director, South-South – Mr. Abue Ighodalo – Legal Practitioner with 10

    years post qualification experience.

    “Council members unanimously adopted the nominations for onward consideration by the President for his final approval.”

    Giving update on the budget support loan, Mrs Adeosun said that eight accounting firms had been contracted to start the verification, adding that the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma, highlighted plans to recover the economy.

    “Minister of Finance reported that Eight Accounting Firms have been appointed to start the verification process of the monthly Budget Support Loan Facility based on the approved Fiscal Sustainability Plan by the states.”

    Ogbeh said that the Council was informed of the massive wheat production in Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi and Zamfara, among others.

    He said: “States however appealed to the Federal Government to make plans for the purchase of excess wheat to ensure price stability and sustainable production.

    “Council agreed to discuss and make adequate buy-back arrangements in order to support price stability.”

    NEC held a valedictory session for Ondo State Governor Olusegun Mimiko, who was attending the meeting for the last time as his tenure expires next week.

  • Reps probe sale of $1b foreign exchange

    Reps probe sale of $1b foreign exchange

    • CBN: we’re not aware of NNPC/IOCs forex sale deal

    The House of Representatives  Ad hoc Committee on the Reduction of Petrol Prices has summoned Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Godwin Emefiele, over alleged irregularities in the sale of $1billion foreign exchange (forex) last year.

    The CBN chief is also to explain how International Oil Companies (IOCs) got the powers to act as finance houses that sell forex to major oil importers as well as to the CBN.

    The committee, headed by Hon. Nnanna Igbokwe, is probing the sale of $1billion in June, last year by the apex bank, because in the preceding months, it sold far below such figure and thereafter ceded sale of forex to IOCs.

    Director, Financial Markets Department at the CBN, Mr. Alvan Ikokun,  surprised the committee members when he said IOCs had been selling forex to major oil marketers and the CBN.

    Ikokun, answering questions, said the CBN does not monitor the transaction that takes place between the marketers and IOCs and knew nothing about the agreement between the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and IOCs.

    The committee asked: “Which CBN  laws and financial regulations allow IOCs to trade foreign exchange to importers and dealers, as well as the CBN?”

    Ikokun declined to answer the question but said: “Our legal counsel will answer that.” According to him, everything was done with the authorisation of the management.

    Igbokwe said: “The $1 billion allocation which was sold to importers and marketers by CBN records came up in June. Between July, August, September, October and November 2016, they didn’t make sales. They now started in December and made sales of $372 million.

    “The explanation by CBN was that they relaxed the rules in June. In June it shot up to $1 billion and this is where we wanted to get clarification.

    “The figures they presented was just showing a summary of all allocations to importers of petroleum products and we’re insisting that they should dissect it and present a detailed schedule of all importers that have received foreign exchange.”

    According to him, the CBN had been invited to the hearing because most of the importers and marketers of petroleum products, especially petrol “ had alluded to the claim that they had difficulties in assessing forex to be able to import the products.”

    The committee thereafter summoned Emefiele to its next sitting to come with the details of the petroleum products dealers allocated forex  from January 2015 till date, all dealers allocations and the banks they passed through; the criteria to assess forex and all relevant documents to support the transactions.

    Also speaking before the committee, Director, Marine Services, Naval Headquarters, Commodore Preston Efedua, said its the multiplicity of charges that is responsible for ships preferring Lome to Lagos for offloading their products.

    According to him, the Navy does not charge any fees for its role in checking and clearing the incoming vessels, adding that the collaboration between the Nigerian Navy and Nigerian Maritime Safety Administration Agency (NIMASA) is yielding dividend in terms of security.

  • The foreign exchange burden

    The foreign exchange burden

    The difficulty in sourcing for foreign exchange (forex) is giving parents with children studying abroad goose bumps.  KOFOWOROLA BELO-OSAGIE and OLUWATOYIN ADELEYE examine the challenges parents, students and foreign admissions firms are facing because of the economic recession.

    Sourcing for foreign exchange (Forex) has never been this difficult.  Industrialists, travellers, and parents with children schooling abroad are having a hard time getting forex.  The economic downturn has worsened the problem. Gone are the days when paying school fees was just a matter of applying to banks for forex at inter-bank rate.  Now, parents are forced to go to the parallel market (popularly known as black market) to buy dollars and other currencies at exorbitant rates.

    The dollar moved from less than N199/dollar in the last quarter of last year at interbank rate to N278 in June, N313 in August, and N310 last Tuesday.  However, in the black market, there is an additional cost of over N100. While it was N310 at the inter-bank rate last Tuesday, black market was as high as N470. Unfortunately, it is difficult to buy foreign currency at inter-bank rate because of scarcity.  Herein lies the problem of parents who have to fund their children’s education abroad.

    Mr Kenneth Ilalokhoin, CEO of Global Networks Educational Services Company, which helps to place students in schools in the United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Australia and other parts of Europe, said banks hardly honour requests for foreign currency at inter-bank rates.

    “Students have been facing challenges. Before now, students can apply to banks to have tuition fees remitted to schools abroad. Not anymore. The few banks that are doing it now take forever to remit to the schools.  Some students have to resort to the parallel market to pay fees. They fund their domiciliary accounts and the banks remit on their behalf. If you have a student in the second or third year, you don’t want to break their education so you are forced to go to the parallel market,” he said.

    A parent, who prefers not to be named, corroborated Ilalokhoin.  He said efforts to get dollars from bank to fund his daughter’s education in Canada were futile. “They never give you,” he said. He said he has had to resort to creative means to pay her fees.

    “I have practically emptied my account here. The black market rate is crazy.  To get around it, I have a lot of friends abroad who usually have one or two things to do in Nigeria. They reach me and I help them do what they have to do in local currency. When they repay me, they remit in dollars and I send to my daughter to settle her fees,” he said.

    The falling value of the naira forced Mrs Mildred Okafor (not real names) and her husband to rethink sending their daughter to Canada.  With the foundation fees costing up to $25,000, they are considering allowing her to complete her first degree at the Covenant University, Ota, where she has been offered admission to study Engineering.

    “It is outrageous; and she is the first child.  We are being advised to allow her study here for the first degree then save towards her masters,” she said.

    A Nigerian student, Jude Osagie, who has applied for postgraduate studies in Canada, complained of the high dollar rate.

    He said: “I just applied to a medical school in Canada for my masters but I really pity my father who is paying the fees. He has been saving for the fees for so long and I know he has deprived himself of a lot of luxury just so that my siblings and I can have this kind of education. My fees are about 20,000 CAD (Canadian dollar) which translates to about N6.6 million. As at two years ago, when I was an undergraduate student in Ukraine, that same amount was N2.7 million and even then, some of my classmates had to withdraw from school due to expenses. And the exchange rate was still better then. So I can imagine what people are going through now with the current rate. It is really bad.”

    Another parent, who runs an educational services firm in Nigeria and has a son studying in the United Kingdom, said she and her husband had to pay fees at the exorbitant black market rate.  She said they were sustaining his education because it is their priority.

    “I agree that it is impossible to get foreign exchange at inter-bank rate.  The black market is the only place to get it.  We survive by simply making school fees the priority.  I just came back and I changed pounds for N560. I couldn’t buy anything,” she said.

    With foresight, another parent said her family was able to escape the foreign exchange fluctuation.  However, she admitted many parents were caught unawares and had to withdraw their wards.

    “We had no problem because we had foreseen the situation and paid our daughter’s fees on time.  But I know parents are not having it easy.  People are withdrawing their children abroad because of the problem,” she said.

    Changing the Naira into other currencies presently is not a choice that Dr Ibilola Amao says she makes.  To fund her children’s education abroad, the Principal Partner, Lonadek Oil and Gas, says she now exports value that allows her to be paid in foreign currency.

    She counseled parents to become creative.

    “Look for products and services to export.  I cannot afford to change Naira into forex.  But I have what has value abroad.  We need to think and work outside the box.  It is time to be creative,” she said.

    Agencies that place students abroad are feeling the pinch as many parents are rethinking sending their children abroad because of affordability.

    The Administration Officer, GVC Travels and Tours, Miss Olayinka Akinkunmi, said patronage has reduced ‘drastically’ this year for studies. On the contrary, she said students are beginning to explore visa options that allow them to work.

    “The recession is affecting us from the angle of exchange rate. The exchange rate has doubled within the last one year, making it difficult for many students from Nigeria to pay their tuition fees and cover their living expenses. Many have been discouraged to pursue their career abroad. Even the few who can afford the exchange rate find it hard to get normal price from their banks due to low circulation of dollars from CBN to various banks.

    “The number of applicants we have had in the past one year has reduced drastically because people cannot afford the fees any more. Canadian dollar used to be N154 some months ago is now N234 hence people are discouraged. They prefer to go for visa packages that will give them work abroad instead of study,” she said.

    Mr Asukwo Ntekim, Business Development Manager, Preparation for Life Ltd Education Consultants, another foreign education placement firm, said the recession has affected school choices of students.

    “The exchange rate particularly has made things very difficult for some families who have the ambition to send their wards abroad. Definitely, there has been some reduction in the influx of applicants with us compared to about two years ago when the exchange rate was much cheaper.

    “The issue is that some parents who harboured such ambition usually have a budget to work with. So even though the school fees for the schools they plan to apply for their wards remain the same, the exchange rate has made it almost triple the amount when converted to the naira so many people have had to compromise their decisions on this.  For some other parents, the desire and zeal are there so they would just reduce their ambitions by going for cheaper schools abroad. So if quality used to be the standard for choosing the school, the standard has now reduced to pricing. Recession has made people prioritise cheaper schools over quality,” he said.

    Some schools/firms have devised ways to help parents pay tuition fees of their wards without going through the black market.

    One of such is Abbey DLD Group of Colleges, which runs GCSE, A Levels and Foundation programmes that serve as pathway into top UK universities.

    Its Student Admissions Manager for Africa, Mr Jalaludden Muazu, said to check dwindling enrolment from Nigeria – its biggest market, the colleges came up with a flexible and affordable payment plan that allows parents to pay in naira.

    “We have a package for parents in Nigeria. We have done it for a few already. The main arrangement we have on ground is that we give a discount of up to 30 per cent on tuition fees.

    “We also spread the payment in four instalments for them within the year. Right now, I am working with a parent to make payment in naira. We are planning to collect his naira equivalent using inter-bank rate and remit for him to the school,” he said.

    Ms Edna Joseph, whose firm, Profound Educational Services Ltd helps place Nigerian students abroad, said some Canadian colleges are now giving Nigerian students more time to pay up.

    She said: “A lot of students are stranded.  No money to pay fees and even for upkeep.  Parents have problems sending money.  Some Canadian schools are aware of the Nigeria situation and are kind of making it easy by giving some sort of payment plan or a time frame to pay the money.

    “The payment plan depends on what the school deems fit.  They may specify an amount to be paid each semester – with a certain amount payable each month.

    “The parents are also sorting themselves out.  For those with relatives in Canada who still maintain a Nigerian bank account, they  could easily get dollars from relatives who pay on their behalf while they remit the naira equivalent into the relatives’ naira account.”

     

     

     

     

  • CBN denies knowledge of Forex Act Amendment

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says it has no plans to amend the Foreign-Exchange Act to provide for the imprisonment of anyone who holds foreign currencies, particularly the United States dollars, for more than 30 days.

    A statement from the CBN on Monday  in Abuja said the apex bank “has nothing to do with such.”

    The Acting Director, Corporate Communications of the CBN, Isaac Okorafor, stressed that “the CBN, in line with its mandate, was committed to safeguarding the international value of the country’s legal tender currency.”

    He then denied knowledge of the proposed clause recommending a jail term for as long as two years or a fine of 20 per cent of the amount for any holder of foreign exchange in cash.

    According to him, “to the best of my knowledge, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has not proposed any bill seeking to arrest and jail persons holding foreign exchange for more than 30 days.”

    He also denied that the CBN was planning to confiscate funds in domiciliary accounts of individuals, saying any such claim was false.

    There have been speculations  suggesting that the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria were considering imprisoning anyone who holds foreign currencies, particularly the United States dollars, for more than 30 days as a way of stemming the volatility in the exchange rate and strengthen the international value of the Naira.

  • Angola beefs up currency controls to cope with FX shortage

    Angola’s central bank has cut the amount of hard currency travellers can take abroad, under new rules to cope with a decline in foreign exchange reserves.

     

    Under the rules made public late on Thursday, the bank cut the sum that can be taken abroad to $10,000 from $15,000.

     

    Hit by a collapse in the price of crude oil, Africa’s second largest oil exporter, has been depleting its reserves at a faster rate to fund imports and pay down government debt.

     

    Oil output represents 40 per cent of gross domestic product and more than 95 per cent of foreign exchange revenue.

     

    Brent crude traded below $39 a barrel this week, down more than 30 per cent compared with a year ago

  • Naira stable at N321 to Dollar at parallel market

     The Naira on Monday continued to exchange at N321 to the Dollar at the parallel market.

    The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the nation’s currency has maintained this value since April 1.

    The Naira, however, slide against the Pound Sterling and Euro as it traded for N445 and 355 respectively, from N457 and N357 it traded last week.

    Meanwhile, the Naira also sold for N197 to the Dollar at the official inter-bank rate.

    Traders at the foreign exchange market said that activities at the market had yet to rebound after the weekend break. 

  • U.S to engage Fed Govt on foreign exchange flexibility

    U.S to engage Fed Govt on foreign exchange flexibility

    The United States (U.S) has said it would this week, engage the Federal Government in talks to adopt a more flexible foreign exchange (forex) rate to boost growth and investment.

    Its Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told an audience at the U.S. Institute of Peace that Nigeria should ensure that the value of the naira versus the U.S. dollar was “more realistic.”

    “While most people complain about the possibility of  a devaluation, people are already operating on a devalued currency, and the only people who are not, are people who are doing it officially.

    “Our recommendation is, and we will have discussions about it … that they should look at the exchange rate and try to make the exchange rate more realistic to what the value of the naira is to the dollar,”Thomas-Greenfield was quoted to have said by Reuters.

    She spoke before the talks  to be launched in Washington by Secretary of State John Kerry today. The talks will focus on Nigeria’s economy, security and development.

    Nigeria faces its worst economic crisis in decades as the falling prices of oil has slashed revenues, prompting the Central Bank of NIgeria (CBN) to peg the currency and introduce curbs to protect forex reserves, which have fallen to an 11-year low.

    Some members of CBN bank monetary policy committee have backed the devaluation of the naira.

    Thomas-Greenfield said the parallel currency market in Nigeria was “alive and well,” warning that a rigid exchange rate, capital controls and import bans could undermine President Muhammadu Buhari’s efforts to expand economic growth and fight corruption. Buhari has rejected the idea of devaluing the naira.

    “Capital controls that limit access to foreign exchange rewards insiders and undermines the stated goals of Nigeria to increase domestic production because both Nigerian and export investors alike tell us many businesses are unable to obtain the capital to purchase badly needed intermediate goods,” she said.

    The naira trades some 40 per cent below the official rate in the black market versus the dollar. The CBN last year pegged the exchange rate to curb speculative demand for the dollar and conserve foreign exchange reserves after it restricted access to hard currency for imports of certain items, frustrating businesses.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on the Federal Government to lift the curbs and let the naira reflect market forces more closely, as the restrictions have significantly affected the private sector.

  • ‘Cashew industry needs more funding to boost foreign exchange’

    ‘Cashew industry needs more funding to boost foreign exchange’

    The cashew industry requires N100 billion to fund production and boost foreign earning, the Natinal President, National Cashew Association of Nigeria (NCAN), Pastor Babatola Faseru, ha said.

    He spoke at the just-concluded National Cashew Festival Awards in Ilorin, the capital of Kwara State.

    He said Nigeria needed to increase its cashew production, provide high-yielding seedlings to farmers and offer mechanisation support.

    Right now, he said, cashew provides livelihood for over 300,000 families with 175,00 tonnes as estimated production for the year.

    Referring to the export performance of the industry, he pointed out that the foreign exchange earned by the country through cashew kernels, cashew nut shell liquid and allied products last year was put at $253 million.

    According to him, Nigeria remains the sixth largest cashew producer after Cote d’Ivoire, India, Vietnam, Tanzania and Guinea Bissau.

    He said, however, that the cashew industry has many challenges, which are threatening its development. These include shrinking of cultivation area and unstable output.

    He said ageing trees and abnormal weather patterns have decreased yields, and many growers prefer other crops for higher profits, which has reduced the area under the nut.

    This requires a strategy to enable the industry to develop in a sustainable manner in the coming years.

    He urged the government to support farmers in planting cashew trees to replace old ones, adopt policies to encourage firms investing in deep processing, and strengthen inspection of exports. Modern technologies and equipment, he advocated, should be used.

    The industry, according to him, plans to increase the rate of fully processed nuts to satisfy the requirements of customers, add more value, and boost domestic consumption.

    He underscored the association’s cashew value programme that targets raising the value of exports, promoting consumption both in the domestic and foreign markets and build brands for the country’s cashew products.

    For the programme to be implemented from this year to 2020, to achieve the target of 500,000 tonnes, he urged the government to support cashew industry to boost its economic growth.

    He urged the government to create the enabling environment, to attract investments that will allow the sector to take advantage of  the opportunities created by rising global and domestic demand.

    He urged the government to allocate sufficient funds and put forward necessary schemes to increase production of cashew nut.

    Considering Nigeria’s stake in global cashew trade, he requested the government to do more in ensuring the country’s leadership in the world market.

    He called on domestic cashew businesses to ensure quality control and sticking to delivery dates, and for producers to use sound cultivation techniques to improve quality of nuts.

  • CBN vows to increase items denied foreign exchange

    CBN vows to increase items denied foreign exchange

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has threatened to list more items to be denied access to foreign exchange to check goods and services import.

    Besides, all banks and Bureaux dex Changes (BDCs) will no longer provide foreign exchange for the importation of the listed items.

    Addressing reporters in Abuja yesterday on what informed the CBN’s decision to deny importers of certain items access to the foreign exchange markets, CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele said: “The huge amounts of money the country spends on importing things we can produce locally have become a significant drag on our Foreign Exchange Reserves.”

    He demanded to know why we should keep importing rice when rice paddy of comparable quality produced by poor hardworking local farmers across the rice belts of Nigeria are being wasted and ignored?

    The CBN governor asked what it will “take for these importers to stop the importation and go into processing these locally produced rice. “Why are these importers not utilising the vast expanses of arable land for rice cultivation instead of taking the easy route of importing rice? Do we, as a people, realise how many jobs we are creating for other countries by ignoring local production and simply concentrating on imports? How can we keep complaining about the depreciation of the naira when all we do as a people is to import everything from ordinary Geisha and toothpicks, to even eggs?”

    These, he said, are some of the fundamental reasons behind the CBN’s recent announcement. Emefiele emphasised that the CBN does not have the power to out rightly ban the importation of the items it listed in its circular but added that what CBN has done “is to simply say that the CBN cannot continue to support the imports of these items using Nigeria’s hard-earned foreign exchange. Importers who may want to continue bringing in these goods or services into the country will have to source their foreign exchange from private sources.”

    Emefiele said the apex bank would continue to be vigilant on this policy and will keep reviewing the list “as we become comfortable that items can be produced locally if we apply ourselves sufficiently enough.”

    Nigeria’s situation, Emefiele said, “affords us a unique opportunity to embrace self-sufficiency, reduce our appetite for everything and anything foreign, conserve the country’s scarce Foreign Exchange, and create jobs here at home for our people.”

    Emefiele assured Nigerians that the CBN “will continue to look out for areas in which the Bank can play a catalytic financial role to helping us achieve these goals in the near future.”

  • Investors waiting for sustainable foreign exchange policy, says StanChart

    •Nigeria likely to remain in the JPMorgan GBI-EM Index

    The overwhelming majority of investors are still on the sideline waiting for tangible government direction and emergence of a more sustainable and liquid foreign exchange metrics before committing further funds to Nigerian securities, Standard Chartered Bank has said.

    In its latest assessment of the Nigerian fixed-income market, Standard Chartered Bank stated that the greater flow of foreign investments into Nigerian government bonds would depend on the normalization of foreign exchange conditions. StanChart believes such normalization and further realignment of foreign exchange rate will likely take place soon.

    Standard Chartered Bank, in the “on the ground global research” report signed off by Samir Gadio, Head, Africa Strategy, FICC Research, said stakeholders will likely seek to preserve Nigeria’s inclusion in the JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Indices (JP Morgan GBI-EM Index) noting that Nigeria’s potential exclusion from the GBI-EM indices is an avoidable outcome. There have been fears in some quarters that the country may be excluded from the index on the account of illiquidity and tepid Naira-Dollar exchange.

    The JP Morgan GBI-EM Index serves as benchmarks for local currency bonds issued by emerging market governments. The index was launched in June 2005 and is the first comprehensive global local emerging markets index. The JP Morgan GBI-EM Index is widely regarded as reference point for foreign investors seeking to diversify their portfolios by investing in sovereign bonds issued by emerging market countries.

    Nigeria celebrated its admission to the JP Morgan GBI-EM Index on October 1, 2012. Nigeria was the second African country after South Africa to be included in the widely followed index.

    Analysts at CardinalStone Partners Limited said Nigeria is at a risk of capital flight involving about $3.9 billion as possible reactions and impact of the previous downgrade and eventual removal on the local bond market could lead to significant capital flight.

    Analysts noted that the total value of investor money benchmarked against the whole JP Morgan GBI-EM suite of indices is about $217 billion. The GBI – EM Global Diversified Index is the most frequently used local emerging market index and Nigeria accounts for 1.8 per cent of its value, about $3.9 billion.

    “Hence, Nigeria’s removal from the Index would trigger capital flight at a time when the country needs to attract capital inflow. Bond yields will also spike in reaction to the significant exit by funds which mirror the composition of the index and may subsequently lead to the exit of Nigeria from the Barclay’s Bond Index as well,” CardinalStone Partners stated.

    StanChart said it expected Nigerian bonds to remain in the GBI-EM indices provided reforms are undertaken to normalise exchange rate conditions and move towards a price-driven foreign exchange trading platform in the coming months.

    “From the government and Central Bank of Nigeria’s standpoint, it represents a significant setback in the development of domestic financial markets and undermines the country’s external credibility. For the index provider, it may test the credentials of the GBI-EM inclusion process, while exclusion on account of foreign exchange liquidity-related factors is largely unknown territory. International investors would also likely prefer Nigeria’s GBI-EM eligibility to be reaffirmed,” StanChart stated.

    According to the bank, as the public policy focus shifts back to the economy, Nigerian authorities will probably pay more attention to the needs of corporates and onshore market participants, and streamline the FX market operating environment.

    “We see the authorities potentially reintroducing a more flexible price-driven foreign exchange trading platform and moving away from the order-matching system in the foreseeable future. This is likely to be accompanied by an upward adjustment to the exchange rate,” StanChart stated.

    It noted significant foreign outflows in late 2014 and early 2015, pointing out that the investors’ interest in the Nigerian bonds remained slow.

    “Assuming these conditions are met, we expect decent foreign portfolio inflows to resume,” StanChart said while calling for flexible price-driven foreign exchange.

    The report pointed out that Nigerian government bonds may benefit moderately from the index provider’s decision, as market sentiment turns more constructive early this week. However, it believed the extension of the GBI-EM review period has already been largely priced in. Nigerian bonds appear to have found a new level in sub-14 per cent yield territory in recent weeks.

    JP Morgan had last Friday extended Nigeria’s Index Watch status in the GBI-EM indices, providing the country with more room for policy reforms. Nigeria’s status review will now be be finalised in the coming months or before year-end at the latest. JP Morgan indicated in its notice that Nigeria’s index eligibility at the end of the extension period would be conditional upon a consistent record of a functioning and transparent foreign exchange market. Specifically, JP Morgan highlights adequate foreign exchange liquidity and two-way flow trading to ensure that benchmarked investors can transact with minimal constraints. JP Morgan had placed Nigeria on Negative watch in the GBI-EM indices in January, citing difficulties for offshore investors to replicate Nigeria’s allocation in the benchmark.

    “This extension of the review period is broadly in line with market expectations,” StanChart noted.

    JP Morgan had placed Nigeria on “index watch negative” due to what the global financial company described as lack of liquidity induced by regulatory policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

    JP Morgan hinged Nigeria’s downgrade to “index watch negative” on recent policies by the CBN, which limited liquidity in the spot foreign exchange market and local treasury liquidity market. The CBN had on December 17, 2014 reduced the net open position (NOP) of commercial banks from one per cent to zero per cent of shareholders fund, before subsequently revising it to 0.1 per cent in January 2015.

    JP Morgan stated that this measure effectively resulted in a lack of liquidity in the spot foreign exchange market and domestic bond market thus hindering the ability of foreign investors to replicate Nigeria’s exposure to the GBI-EM Index.