There is a realignment of forces as politicians prepare for next year’s general elections. Some aggrieved leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other groups have defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which is now being referred to as ‘the third force’. Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the impact the defections may have on the fringe party during the elections.
NIGERIANS are becoming increasingly despondent, ahead of next year’s general elections. They appear to be yearning for a third force that could wrestle power from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Some proponents of this idea argue that the emergence of a third major political party is imperative to widen the scope of choices beyond the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In the last few weeks, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has been embraced by some key leaders of the PDP and other groups. Its National Chairman, Chief Olu Falae, confirmed that some former governors and serving senators of the PDP, as well as members of other parties have joining the SDP in recent times.
They have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to work together to dislodge the ruling party. Those who defected to the SDP include a former Information Minister, Professor Jerry Gana, ex-Education Minister Professor Tunde Adeniran, former Military Administrator Senator Joseph Akaagerger, former Chief of Staff to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan Mike Oghiadomhe, former Governor Saminu Turaki of Jigawa State and ex-Minister of Defence Dr Olu Agunloye. Other politicians that have aligned themselves with the SDP include former members of the House of Representatives, Dr Junaid Muhammed and Hon. Olamide Oni; Senator Bassey Ewa Henshaw; a former Leader of the Alliance for Democracy in the House of Representatives, Hon. Dipo Olaitan; a former Speaker, Oyo State House of Assembly, Hon. Kehinde Ayoola; Ambassador Yemi Farounbi; Mr John Dara; leaders of the Middle Belt Forum and the leaders of the National Intervention Forum led by Dr Tafawa Balewa; Ambassador Dare Bejide and Shehu Gabam. The SDP has not been able to win elections anywhere in the country, particularly in Ondo State, where Falae comes from. With the defeat of the PDP, the lifeline of the SDP had been blocked and there were no party activities.
But, with its changing fortunes, can it compete against the APC and the PDP in 2019? Do the new members have electoral weight? Do they have enough time to nurture the party ahead next year general elections? A political scientist, Professor Ayo Olukotun, said in politics, no time is short to prepare for election; 24 hours is a long time; one year is sufficient to build a party for election.
He said: “The party that won the presidential election in France was formed less than a year before election. Here in Nigeria, the All Progressives Congress (APC) was less than a year when it contested the 2015 general elections and dislodged the sitting president from power.” As far as Olukotun is concerned, it is too early to say whether the SDP can muster the strength for a good outing in the next year’s general elections or not. He believes the the two major parties for now still remain the APC and the PDP.
“The other parties have to do a merger to be reckoned with,” he added. On the electoral value of the new SDP members, the university teacher said: “They are renowned in their career; they have served as ministers. But in terms of electoral weight, I don’t think they have much. Falae is a respected leader; he was once a presidential candidate and he is known all over the country. But how that would translate into political gains is difficult to say. “It is conjecture that determines an individual or party’s fortune. How far the SDP will go is a function of conjecture; that is, the possibilities that events can throw up.” A lawyer and civil rights activist, Mr Monday Ubani, agrees that time has little or nothing to do with the electoral success of a political party. He said the SDP could go places in 2019, if it can muster the resources and logistic now that Nigerians are yearning for a new platform. But, he ruled out the SDP as the new platform people are looking for.
His words: “I don’t think this is a new platform Nigerians are yearning for. The new SDP is made up of aggrieved politicians from the PDP and the APC, looking for a new platform to actualise their ambition. For instance, Professor Tunde Adeniran left the PDP because he lost the party’s chairmanship election. Gana also dumped the party because his candidate (Adeniran) crashed out of the party’s election. Chief Falae has no electoral value even in his home state, Ondo. That explains why the party has failed to fly all these years. “I understand that the Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki, his deputy, Ike Ekweremadu and some senators are heading for the SDP. They are the same set of people; they can’t effect a change. It is a coup against the people. Only a mad man would do things the same way all the time and expect change. Unless those who love this country come together to rescue it, the status quo will remain.
The trend in advanced democracy is change from the old order. In France, a young man with fresh ideas emerged as president. Nigeria should come together to look for a new leader with fresh ideas to move the country forward.” Civil rights activist, Comrade Mashood Erubami, was very categorical that the defection of Gana and other PDP top shots to the SDP will not bring any significance change in the polity. He said: “It is not new that they are moving from the PDP into the SDP. What is new is the personage of conservatism they are bringing into a party that came into being in a semblance of progressive. Their characters as members of the PDP, a party that ruled the country for 16 years without direction and emptying the treasury of the nation without finding any clue to the mirages of challenges that bedevilled the country ruled them out as new messiah.” Erubami said defecting into another party will not necessarily change their character and personality. He said they will not have bring any change unto the body polity, as they cannot give what they do not have.
He emphasised that their defection was not determined by patriotic zeal to reform Nigeria and advance the right causes of Nigerians, but determined by a newly arranged strategies to come back into power to displace the current leadership. He said: “PDP members will remain what they were as leopard does not change its colour under any circumstance; hence nothing will change with their decampment to the SDP. The fact of the matter is that those who defected from the old PDP to the SDP in the past after contributing to the advancement of the party were forced to leave by forces that stalled their none achievement in the party; they defected back into the new PDP. But things have fallen apart and the centre can no longer hold.”
However, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Malam Yusuf Ali, argued that the constitution guarantees freedom of association and that people have the right to move from one party to the other. He frowned at the proliferation of political parties in the country, adding that all of them lack political ideology. Ali lamented that all political parties are similar in conception without ideological stance. He said: “The politicians are all the same; they move from one party to another in search of platform to win elections in order to have access to public treasury. Many of them are in politics for personal aggrandisement, not because they want to serve humanity.”
Can the SDP turn the table in 2019? A public affairs analyst, Dr Okey Nwakwo said much should not be expected from the party in next year general elections. He said it is already late for a fringe party like the SDP to expect to win elections across the country, because time is not on their side. Nwakwo said the involvement of Chief Falae in the $2.1 million meant from the procurement of arms and ammunition for the troops fighting Boko Haram is enough to discourage an average Nigerian, especially in the North, to want to queue behind such a leader. He said: “The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission directed Falae to refund the N100 million traced to his bank account. It is a stigma that must be removed first. Again, the SDP is not popular in the Southwest where Falae hails from. “If we are to use the APC model that came into power within two years after its formation the circumstance was different from that of the SDP.
Three political parties, apart from other political groups merged to form the APC. They started plotting to unseat former President Goodluck Jonathan right from 2011, even before the party was registered. A party cannot just wake up overnight and say it would wrestle power from the ruling party. The APC defeated the PDP in 2015, because of its geographical spread and strength. “The likes of Jerry Gana, Tunde Adeniran, Godsday Orubebe are not grass root politicians. Yes, they have held political offices, but they lack political followership. Many of them had not contested and won elections. Defection of big wigs into a party does not translate to more members for the party.”
However, Falae promised that his party would provide a much better change positively for the nation if given a chance to lead. He said that the SDP embodied the social re-engineering and massive development agenda of its late presidential flag bearer, Chief Abiola who won the annulled 1993 presidential election. He promised that the party would pursue the ideals to the letter. He said: “SDP is a party with very long and sustained history of welfarism and respect for the rule of law. The party being an off-shoot of the political family of our late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo and one under which the late Mosshood Kashimawo Abiola contested and won the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election, is no doubt the best alternative for good governance in the country.” Erubami ruled out the possibility of the SDP and its “new converts” as the messiah Nigerians require.
He said: “Nigerians already know them by their spirit and can ever be deceived by any veiled programmes of under-development. Definitely, they cannot bring forth useful fruits anymore and can ever be a good alternative to the APC whatever the identified mistakes of the APC at the moment. The APC still have the chances of making good its promises to Nigerians”. The SDP was floated in 2013 by the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural organisation, the Afenifere, to whittle down the influence of the APC in the Southwest. It was created as a platform for aggrieved governorship aspirants of other political parties. The SDP was the platform on which the late Moshood Abiola, the assumed winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election contested.
The party was proscribed by the Abacha military junta, but later resuscitated by the Afenifere, which felt that such a party would elicit nationwide acceptance, especially in the Southwest. Before now, the party was not able to make much impact, because of its romance with the PDP. The party’s leadership integrity suffered a setback over the alleged involvement of its chieftains in Dasukigate. The anti-graft agency, the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), discovered that Falae collected N100 million from the former National Security Adviser (NSA), Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd) out of the $2.1 billion meant for the purchase of arms to fight Boko Haram terrorists. Falae admitted collecting the money, but insisted that it was meant to facilitate the agreement the party had with the PDP, of delivering the Southwest for former President Goodluck Jonathan in the last presidential election.
