Tag: Fourth Republic

  • Different strokes for different states

    As Nigerians troop out for the presidential and National Assembly elections today, the mood across the country is mixed. Caution is the word as many gauge the mood of the nation on a daily basis in order to know how to respond to any situation.

    Findings made by The Nation across the country indicate that the political mood within the states and local government areas tend to shape individuals’ moods and expectations from the elections. This informs the rather different moods of the people in different states as the nation prepares to elect its leader in the next four years.

    All calm in Lagos

    Since the advent of the Fourth Republic, Lagos State has been a fortress for progressive politics, save the emergence of the late Chief Michael Otedola of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC) as the governor of the state in the short-lived Third Republic after profiting from internal squabble in the camp of the progressives.

    Since then, the state has returned to the progressives’ fold and has been the bulwark for progressive politics. Most Lagosians interviewed saw no need for any special arrangements as vehicular movement would only be restricted for one day.

    “Nothing dey happen (nothing is happening) It is just elections and nothing else. The mood is the same in most parts of the state,” said a Lagosian, Mr. Sikiru Anjorin.

    No thoughts for IPOB’s sit-at-home order in Anambra

    As the people of Anambra State prepare to cast their votes today, there is no sign of panic whatsoever. In fact, some of the state’s residents who spoke with The Nation believe that the so-called pre-election hype is a normal phenomenon.

    The purported sit-at-home order issued by the indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), may not work as the residents did not appear to be giving it any consideration.

    Asked whether they were stockpiling food items or making withdrawals from banks on account of the tension created by IPOB’s directive, respondents told The Nation there was no need for such. A petty trader at the Eke Awka Market, Ebere Uzochukwu, an indigene of Abia State, said he registered to vote in his state but would not be travelling home to vote for people he said would not remember him at the end of the day. For Amaka Ezimora, who hails from Enugu State but lives in Onitsha, whoever God had destined to win would win, even as she implored the government to reduce the sufferings in the land.

    It was, however, observed that many eligible voters in the state were yet to obtain their PVCs in Anambra State, while some who did said they were not ready to cast their votes for anybody, asking, “The one we voted before, have we benefitted anything?”

     

    IPOB’s threat real in Abia, other South East states

    Unlike Anambra, the calls by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) on the people of Abia State to boycott today’s elections may have yielded some fruits in Abia State, with disclosure by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that about a quarter of the two million registered voters in the state were yet to collect their permanent voter cards (PVCs).

    Abia State Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Joseph Ilo, said that more than 500,000 of the 2 million registered voters in the state had not collected their PVCs a few days to the elections.

    Ilo, represented by Achibie Chigozie, the Head of Department of Voter Education and Publicity disclosed this in Umuahia, the Abia State capital at a conference organised by Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) to sensitise the Abia electorate ahead of the 2019 general elections with the theme, ‘Towards evolving a sustainable and responsible leadership culture in Abia State.’

    According to the pro-Biafra group, today was marked out as a day for Biafran referendum in Biafra land.

    The Pro-Biafra group warned that anybody who disobeyed the order and came out would have him or herself to blame as such a person would be regarded and treated as someone who disobeyed the directives to vote against the realization of the independent state of Biafra.

     

    Deltans stockpile essentials in preparation for polls

    Residents of Delta State are making provisions in case of election or post-election crisis. The Delta State government, not willing to leave anything to chance, has declared that schools will break from February 13-18 and February 26-March 4 respectively to allow for hitch-free polls.

    But many who fear that the elections could be crisis ridden have started making contingency plans among which is stockpiling foodstuffs.

    But some others are optimistic that the elections will be violence free, hence they are not under pressure to make contingency plans.

    An Asaba resident, Mr. Tony Efe, a father of five, wants Deltans to support INEC to deliver elections that will be peaceful and credible. He said he was not under pressure to stockpile essential commodities in anticipa tion of election crisis.

    He said: “I believe that those in authority should be supported in their mandate to deliver a free and fair election. Everyone is watching them. The electoral umpire cannot afford to fail Nigerians.”

    Another resident, Mr. Jake Aimuan, said the widespread apprehension was premised on the fear that there might undesirable reaction as a result of the presidential election.

    He said he had stocked his home with non-perishable food items.

    His words: “There is fear of possible undesirable reaction from the presidential polls which might disrupt commercial activities. The implication is that prices might go up as traders will find it difficult to open for business.”

    Aimuan said he would ensure that he has enough money during the weekend, adding that banks are known to run out of cash during festive periods.

    Mr. Joshua Okpanefe, a civil servant, says he has concluded plans to stockpile food items and keep large amount of cash at home, adding that he had already bought fuel for his vehicle.

    Mrs. Debby Oyowe said that her family would stock up food items and make arrangements to hold cash in case of any eventuality.

    Her words: “I am a little bit apprehensive about the coming polls. I have decided to stock up on foodstuffs. This is just contingency plan should there be anything untoward.”

     

    Residents stockpile food as tension grips Rivers

    Residents of Port Harcourt, Rivers State are feeling a sense of insecurity in the build-up to today’s elections and have resorted to stockpiling food items and making provisions for sufficient fuel such that there would be no reason for them to leave their homes after casting their votes.

    Gilbert Okoro, a businessman and tiles dealer, said: “I am not very interested in this election because it looks as if it will be bloody, especially with what is happening in Rivers State now; I mean the APC and PDP tussle. I have already made plans on how to play safe.”

    Asked how he plans to play safe, he said: “First of all, I will bring my children back from school. Three of my eldest children are in boarding school. I will bring them back home by Thursday so that they will remain at home until after the presidential election.

    “After that, I will buy everything we will need in the house for the whole weekend and buy enough fuel for my generator, so that nothing will take me out of the house the whole of the weekend.

    “I want to make sure that my house is secured, because whatever happens, the election will still hold. So, I will play my part well and wait for the rest.

    “The good thing is that my polling unit is just in the compound where I stay. So if the environment is rowdy, I will not bother coming out.

    “We don’t know what this election is coming with, so I will protect my family first and allow God do the rest.”

    For Nyeche Owhonda, a land agent, his wife will not vote because of the already existing political tension in the state.

    “I don’t have any plans. If that day comes, I will cast my vote and wait for the results. But my wife is not going to vote on that day. She will have to stay at home with the children.

    “I will make sure she finishes everything and anything that will bring her out that day. She will cook and make everything available for the children.”

    As for Mrs. Judith Echeche, a mother of two, the safety of her family matters more than the election. She will ensure that the two lads never step outside the house throughout the event, as their food and upkeep for the period will not be an issue.

    She said: “For that day, my husband has already fixed our faulty generator. With that, I can assure you that my children and I will not step out of the house. I will buy enough food and biscuits for them.

    “What I will need to do now is to ensure that I get good kiddies song CDs and others to keep them busy until the day goes by. As for my husband, he is a man and he knows what to do.”

    It is not different with a female primary school teacher identified simply as Joyce. For her, it is a day of good rest, which should be well utilised.

    “I am not going to vote for anybody on that day, so I am not making any plan for the day.

    “There is too much tension and power tussle in the country and the state in particular, so I don’t want to get involved. I will just stay in my house, sleep and wash my clothes. Nothing more.

    “However, I advise those who would want to participate to be careful and stay out of trouble.”

     

    Election blues in Kano

    As the political headquarters of the North, and indeed, one of the major deciding states in terms of the presidential election, the ancient commercial city is in the grip of election fever. Tension is rife in the state in the aftermath of last Sunday’s presidential campaign rally of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which led to pockets of violence in the state. Houses were burnt, cars smashed while there were serial attacks on the residences of some political figures.

    Innocent citizens were not also spared in the ugly development as miscreants and political thugs took advantage of the situation to unleash terror on residents, snatching cell phones; picking people’s pockets and stabbing whoever resisted their demands.

    Last Sunday, thugs suspected to be loyal to the PDP allegedly attacked the home of the state chairman of the All Progressive Congress (APC), Alhaji Abdullahi Abbas, where cars were smashed and the children were also maimed with severe machete cuts. In what looked like a reprisal, another set of thugs allegedly attacked the home of the governorship candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Abba Yusuf, burning parts of his building.

    Apart from these, pockets of attacks were also recorded across the state as jobless youths moved about with dangerous weapons, harassing innocent pedestrians. The PDP office was also reportedly torched. Hate speeches have continued to rent the air as rival parties threaten fire and brimstones. The rising tension, expectedly, put fear and apprehension in residents, especially the non-natives, some of whom have engaged in panic travelling as a result of distress calls from their home states.

    Speaking with The Nation, Mrs. Ijeoma Uwakwe, who was sighted at New Road Luxury Bus Park, ready to travel to the South East with her children, said she was forced to engage in the unplanned journey due to several calls she had received from the village.

    She said: “My brother, it is life first before wealth. I prefer to go back to my home state and starve there than stay in Kano and die as a result of this election. You are aware of what is happening in town. Since they have started this way now, who knows what will happen after the elections?”

    Another traveller, Mr. Adeola Oyetunde, recalled how he lost his wife in the 2015 post-election violence, saying: “I came back here to Kano because of the contract I was executing before that ugly incident. The death of my wife is still fresh in my memory. The atmosphere is already becoming tense. I have to run before it is too late. After the elections if nothing happens, I may come back.

    Checks carried out at the markets also revealed that residents engaged in panic purchase of goods, particularly foodstuffs whose prices had also skyrocketed. There are also visible queues in ATM stands as residents are seen withdrawing money in preparation for the unknown.

    However, the Kano State Commissioner of Police, Mr. Mohammed Waziri has cautioned politicians against instigating violence, warning that anyone found breaking the law would be made to face the wrath of the law, no matter how highly placed.

    According to him, already, 50 persons have been arrested for arson, thuggery and other election-related offences. Wakili pledged his preparedness to ensure a safe environment before, during and after the general election, adding that politicians and political parties participating in the exercise should play by the rules, as the police will ensure fair and equal treatment to all.

    According to him, “we will not allow a few people among us to operate as if there are no laws. We will not allow them to operate as if Kano is a jungle. We will not allow what happened on Sunday (10 February) to repeat itself. The position of the law in brandishing and carrying arms and dangerous weapons during political rallies, electioneering campaigns, elections and even ordinary days, is clear, and at all times, the law is in place.”

    The Emir of Kano, Muhammad Sanusi II, has expressed dismay over the recent political unrest which led to several bloody attacks on innocent residents by hoodlums in the state. Addressing Journalists at his palace on Tuesday, Sanusi, who frowned at the resurgence of political thuggery in the state, called on the security agencies to live up to their responsibilities in curbing the ugly trend

    According to him, the resurgence of political thuggery calls for immediate concerns in the state. The Emir said the state is not at war and therefore, “we should not rise on to each other’s throats in the name of politics. We should avoid shedding the blood of innocent citizens and wanton destructions of lives and properties.”

    However, the Ethnic Community Leaders Association, Kano State (ECLAK) has made a clarion call, urging non-indigenes to remain in the state and perform their civic responsibilities as adequate measures have been taken to ensure security of lives and property during and after the 2019 general elections. In a Press Statement signed by ECLAK President-General, Dr. Jimoh Patrick Jimpat Aiyelanbge, ECLAK charged all members of ethnic communities’ registered voters resident in Kano to go out en mass and vote candidates of their choice during the general election.

     

    Niger residents in relaxed mood amid security beef-up

    In Minna, Niger State capital, most residents are relaxed about today’s elections and are not anticipating possible outbreak of violence. A resident, Samuel Yisa, said: “Well, my PVC is handy and I’m trusting God to see Saturday 16th February, 2019 to perform my civic duty as a citizen.

    “There is no need for me to rush to the market for any emergency purchase because the election is just for a day and the next day, I am optimistic that the markets will re-open on Sunday”

    Another resident, Valda Martins, believes God is in control: “Hmm! Saturday (today) election? God will have his way. I pray people go out to vote instead of going to sell their freedom and well-being for a token of 500 or 1000 naira.

    “I am not making any plans to withdraw more money than I need or making extra buys because I am not expecting any form of violence. We have been praying for peace and the Prince of Peace will make the exercise peaceful.

    “I have not voted before, but this time around, I intend to vote. I don’t think there will be any violence of any kind. So far, the campaigns have been peaceful, so why won’t the elections be peaceful?”

    Also speaking in the same vein, Mohammed Lawal, a resident of Minna, said: “I do not see any need for last minute purchases or withdrawals. And regarding security, I have confidence in INEC’s preparation and security arrangements. I have located my voter’s card, identified my polling station and sensitised friends on need to vote with advice on following guidelines on voting. I have also prayed and committed all things to the hands of God.”

    Niger State Command of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) disclosed that 2,250 of its officers would be deployed across the state for today’s elections.

    The state Commandant of the Corps, Mr. Philip Ayuba, also said the command would deploy plain clothe operatives in all the polling units in the 25 council areas of the state to that effect. He said the state is not known for electoral violence, but they would not take chances as efforts were being made to ensure the state does not encounter any election violence during and after the elections.

    Also, the Niger State Police Command vowed to deal decisively with any person or group of persons found disrupting the Presidential election.

    Apprehension in Benue

    There is palpable fear of violence in Markudi, Benue State capital. Many residents who spoke with our correspondent vowed to remain indoors today.

    A trader in Wurukum Market in Makurdi, Mrs Kate Emmanuel, told The Nation that since the market would be closed in the morning, she would stay indoor until the result was announced.

    She said: “I have stocked my kitchen with enough food because the political actors are talking tough and I’m afraid there would be violence. So I will remain in my house until the results are announced.”

    At Modern Market located on Naka-Adoka Road, a civil servant, Paul Adakole, who was seen buying foodstuffs, expressed fear that there might be outbreak of violence because most of the politicians are seeking second term in office.

    “There is anxiety and tension in this election because the incumbent wants to win at all cost. So on the election day, I will vote and rush home to be with my family,” said Adakole.

    Adakole said also that he had stocked enough food for his family in case of violence. He appealed to the politicians to caution there followers to play according to the rules.

     

    Concerns in Imo over IPOB’s threats

    Political parties and the electorate in Imo state are eager to participate in today’s elections. This much can be seen in their level of preparation. For the political parties, it has been a beehive of activities as they crisscross the length and breadth of the state canvassing for votes and making last-minute preparations to secure their votes, while the electorate are making desperate efforts to ensure that they collect their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs).

    Major politicians and candidates participating in the election are in last-minute push to beat the deadline to end political campaigns, while most public schools will be shutting down from Thursday, 48 hours to the election.

    Security operatives have also stepped up preparations to ensure hitch free exercise. There is increased police visibility at various places regarded as flashpoints.

    Meanwhile the general mood in the state is devoid of the usual anxiety that precedes general elections. The people are going about their duties without any form of fear.

    But one major concern is the renewed campaign by members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) for people to boycott the election. Already, no fewer than three persons have been killed in pockets of clashes between the Biafra agitators and security agencies. Even though the Police has assured voters of adequate security during the election, the IPOB threat is a source of concern for the electorate.

    A voter, Chief Ukanwa Michael, who spoke with The Nation in Owerri during an interactive session organised for the electorate in Imo State by the Inter Party Advisory Council (IPAC), said: “We are eager to cast our votes on Saturday. We are also satisfied with the preparations by INEC and security operatives.”

    Would be voters who spoke with our correspondent also expressed their readiness to vote in Saturday’s election.

    Meanwhile the State Resident Electoral Commissioner, Prof. Francis Ezeonu, has reassured the voters that the Commission will ensure a level playing ground.

    Plateau voters enthusiastic

    Residents of Plateau State, particularly Jos, are set for today’s elections. The enthusiasm to participate in the final processes of the election is very high.

    However, some of the residents are apprehensive that there could be trouble as a result of the election. Such feelings in some quarters does not reflect the minds of the majority. Only a few number of residents are nursing such fears.

    Some residents spoken to Terminus Market spoke their minds. One of them, Mrs. Dominic Aboh, said: “Yes, I’m buying foodstuffs ahead of the election. It is not for fear of the unknown; it is because you know it’s a routine that there is no movement on election day. So you have to buy ahead of that day so that you will have no reasons to go out and look for things to buy.

    “Of course there will be no market on that day. So, it is good to buy all you need for that day. If not, hunger will teach you a lesson.

    “You know that voting falls into weekend. The next day would be Sunday. So it is going to be two days off the market. That is why I’m buying foodstuffs ahead. I don’t have any fear that there will be trouble after the election.”

    Another resident, Michael Ozor, said there are fears of the unknown because of the two heavyweights involved in the presidential election, but nothing will happen. “Some people exercised such fear in 2015 but nothing happened. So, for me, I don’t have any fear in mind at all. The election is going to be peaceful,” he said.

    My Daniel Izang, a miner, said: “If there is any fear of violence during the election, there fear could be elsewhere, not in Plateau State, because there is no record of electoral violence in the state. The conduct of national election in Plateau State has always been peaceful, so I expect this one to also be peaceful. But some people who are naturally cowards are exercising fear. I don’t think such fear exists.”

    A taxi driver, Abel Ashom, said: “I have confidence that nothing will happen in this election because the two presidential candidates have carried out their rallies in Jos peacefully. Since their supporters did not clash, they will not clash during the elections. It’s going to be peaceful in Plateau State”

  • DAME to present book on media performance in Fourth Republic

    Media scholars and professionals are expected at the presentation of a book: Watchdogs or Captured Media: A Study of the Role of the Media in Nigeria’s Emergent Democracy 1999-2016, on May 22, at the University of Lagos (UNILAG) in Akoka, Lagos.

    The book is the first of such effort to examine how well the media has performed its watchdog role since 1999.

    Published by Diamond Publications for the Diamond Awards for Media Excellence (DAME) Trust Fund, the book is edited by Prof. Ayo Olukotun, who occupies the Oba Sikiru Adetona professorial chair in governance at Olabisi Onabanjo University (OOU), Ago-Iwoye in Ogun State.

    The book parades 14 contributors; 12 from Nigeria and one each from Ghana and Kenya.

    Drawn from the academia and the media, the Nigerians are: Prof. Christian Ogbondah, of University of Northern Iowa in the United States of America (U.S.A); Prof. Lai Oso, of Lagos State University (LASU); Prof. Abiodun Salawu, of Northwest University in South Africa; and Prof. Ayo Olukotun.

    Others are Dr. Oluyinka Esan, of the University of Winchester, Hampshire in England; Dr. Tunde Akanni, of LASU; Mr. Lanre Idowu; of DAME; Mr. Edetaen Ojo, of Media Rights Agenda; Dr. Nathaniel Danjibo, of University of Ibadan (UI); Mrs. Funke Treasure-Durodola, of Radio Nigeria; Dr. Kayode Eesuola, of UNILAG; and Margaret Jesuminure, of Adeleke University, Ede in Osun State.

    Two Africans – Prof. Kwame Karikari, of Wisconsin International University College in Accra, Ghana; and Dr. Peter Kimani, of Aga Khan University in Nairobi, Kenya, offer comparative perspectives on media performance in their countries.

    The publication was the outcome of a Ford Foundation grant to carry out an international conference in Lagos last September, where the chapter contributors received feedbacks on their findings, followed by revision and book presentation.

    The book is expected to bridge the gap in media literature, extend understanding of ways the media promote or impede democracy, and offer insight into different aspects of the Nigerian media for better delivery.

  • Fourth Republic: Mixed feelings, 18 years on

    Fourth Republic: Mixed feelings, 18 years on

    Nigeria is marking 18 years of uninterrupted civilian rule with mixed feelings. Indices from all sectors suggest that the political leadership has not risen up to the challenge of getting the country where it should be. But observers say despite hiccups in leadership, this country is making progress, writes Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI.

    THE reactions trailing Chief of Army Staff Lt-Gen. Tukur Buratai’s claim that some officers were hobnobbing with politicians suggest that Nigerians are tired of military rule. To most of the people, the rumour of a possible military coup is disturbing. Such Nigerians have also vowed never to give the military a chance to rule the country again, saying if dissident elements within the military go ahead to stage a coup, they will be resisted by the people.

    The mood of Nigerians as the country marks 18 years of uninterrupted civil rule is instructive. Nigerians are marking the anniversary with mixed feelings. They are not happy with the state of affairs in the country. Nevertheless, everyone is in agreement that the democratic system of government cannot be compared with military dictatorship.

    The military had reduced the country’s federal structure to that of a unitary state, because the Generals in power characteristically infused a command culture into governance, created dozens of states that are not viable, removed the principle of derivation from revenue allocation and decreed that governors should go cap in hand to the centre for a share of the oil earnings to sustain their administrations. It is generally believed that the rot in the society today gradually crept in during the military era, with the enthronement of indolence, indiscipline and corruption.

    The return of civilian rule in 1999 was received with so much hope and enthusiasm by Nigerians from all walks of life. But, 18 years after, critics said the political leadership has not risen up to the challenge. The return of democracy in 1999 presented Nigeria with an opportunity to catch up with the rest of the world. After the prolonged military rule, the country was a pariah state. Between the first military coup in 1966 and 1999, when the men in uniform finally disengaged from politics, the country had lost 33 valuable years that could have been used to nurture and deepen democracy.

    Observers were optimistic that the country has made progress with the number of years that civilian rule has lasted so far. This is by far the longest since independence in 1960. In the First Republic, civil rule lasted for less than six years. The Second Republic was even shorter –- a mere four years, notwithstanding the advancement in technology, knowledge and political sophistication. Worse was the giddy and experimental Third Republic, which endured for one year and a few months.

    One of such observers, the National Chairman of the United Progressives Party (UPP), Chief Chekwas Okorie, said Nigerians have many reasons to celebrate. His words: “Military rule is an aberration and should not be contemplated under any circumstances; it is like returning to Egypt. The years we spent under military dictatorship were like being in the dungeon. Since 1999, we have enjoyed our rights as Nigerians, particularly freedom of expression and freedom of association. These are things we take for granted. But, for those of us who experienced military rule, we know that our rights were infringed upon prior to 1999, when we were under military dictatorship. This is very commendable.”

    Elder statesman and Second Republic politician, Alhaji Tanko Yakassai, is optimistic that sooner or later the problems besetting the country would be tackled. He said: “What I can say outright is that we have succeeded in the continuation of unbroken democratic rule since 1999. For the first time in our history, we have succeeded in remaining under civil rule for 18 years; we had not been under civil rule for this long period at any other time. It is a very good thing. Sooner or later, like every other democracy, the problem of development would be tackled, because of the competition inherent in the system.”

    The Dean of the Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Prof. Philip Olanrewaju, said Nigerians have fared better under civilian rule. He said: “To me, it’s so far, so good. Although we have not gotten it right, it has been fair. At least, we have consolidated democracy and sustained the civil rule in the last 18 years.” He listed the consolidation of democracy, distribution of dividends of democracy, the enthronement of the rule of law, freedom of speech, separation of powers, with the judiciary acting as a watchdog and the sustained infrastructural development during the period as some of the achievements.

    But, in terms of governance, observers say the country has not made much progress. Okorie said those that have had the opportunity of presiding over the affairs of the country since 1999 did not discharge their duties creditably well. He said: “The amount of resources that have come into this country between 1999 and now are enormous and the fact that Nigeria is still tottering as a struggling Third World country is very scandalous. Our democracy has not grown at all; what we have been experiencing for most part is manipulations and this is aided by security agencies, including the military that reluctantly handed over power. Ironically, they are now called in to participate in one way or the other, such as asking them to come and man our elections.

    “It is as if we are deliberately walking back to the very military that we celebrated their exit. So, I would like to see a situation where the military is limited to their primary role of defending the territorial integrity of the nation and remain in their barracks when there is no war and not to be seen performing the duties of the other security agencies like the police.”

    The UPP chairman said the country is at a brink. He said: “The meagre amount of power that is being generated for a country as large as ours is a national scandal, considering the amount of money that has been invested in that sector. National unity has suffered a lot of reverses, because leaders have tended to use the opportunity to lead Nigeria to take care of their own side of the country; thereby introducing more divisions, instead of uniting the country.

    “The clamour for the restructuring of the country is evidence that Nigerians are not happy with the situation. But, it appears that some people are happy to hold others down, so that they can catch up with them. It doesn’t work like that, because if you hold somebody down, you are also down and you can’t move, so long as you are holding him down. Nigeria is not developing; we are almost at a standstill.”

    On the positive side, the Buhari administration has been commended for some of its policies. Okorie said there were signs in recent times that agriculture may be revamped and that the country may be self-sufficient in food production in the near future.

    Similarly, a finance and investment consultant, Mr. Akintunde Maberu, said the administration has not done badly in its fight against corruption. He said: “They have taken us to another level. The administration has started looking at the direction of economic saboteurs, by recovering wealth looted from the treasury. They have not stopped there; they are taking it further beyond the political terrain, to those in the ministries, departments and agencies, who are now increasingly under the administration’s searchlight. I think that is a step in the right direction.

    “At the end of four years, even if another person takes over, there is the likelihood that the fight against corruption may continue. That is a revolutionary development in the annals of Nigerian history.”

    Maberu said the last government frittered away so much wealth from the proceeds of crude oil export, which ought to have been saved for the rainy day. He added: “They were supposed to earmark a portion as savings, but they did not do so. It was the noise about the lack of savings that brought about the Sovereign Wealth Fund, but the amount set aside was too small. Nevertheless, it was a good thing it was set up at all.”

    Other observers say President Buhari inherited a bad situation, but made it worse, because of his slow pace of taking crucial decisions. For instance, it took him eight months to appoint his cabinet and 22 months for the government to finally unveil its medium-term economic strategy, the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). In addition, the now-customary practice of delayed budget presentations and approvals has worsened under his watch.

    Africa Development Bank former Vice President and lead partner, McFeley Development Associates, Chief Bisi Ogunjobi, said, despite the hiccups in leadership within the period, Nigeria managed to triumph over its challenges. He said: “Looking at the entire period, I think it’s a big success, because the country has continued to make appreciable progress, even though it is not the pace we expect. Naturally, we have had our ups and downs, but overall it has been positive, because the democratic process has continued. Despite the hiccups that we have had in leadership, Nigeria has managed to triumph over its challenges.”

    Ogunjobi said the biggest factor that marred the country’s economic growth and progress is lack of continuity. He said: “If you look at the economy, we have also had hiccups, but overall we have a pass mark, in the sense that we managed to overcome some of the difficulties that occurred as a result of the fluctuation in the international market price of our primary product, oil.

    “Nonetheless, the pace of diversification that we should have had that would have helped to stabilise the economic growth has not taken place. This could be explained partly by frequent changes in government policies in the last 18 years. One would have expected a more suitable performance, if policies had been sustained. Take Lagos State, for instance, I believe the performances of the successive leaderships were largely influenced by the stability and continuity of the governorship management of the state. This ensured that policies remained in the same direction; whereas, when you go to other states you will find that subsequent or succeeding governors usually abandon the policies of their predecessors, by starting all over again.

    “This was also reflected at the national level, when the policies enunciated by former President Olusegun Obasanjo were not followed by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Similarly, all the policies put in place by Yar’Adua were also abandoned by the succeeding administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan, while those of the latter were also not followed by President Muhammadu Buhari. So, I think the issue of continuity of policies, not the individuals, not the parties, is very crucial in the performance of the economy.”

    Be that as it may, one of the seamy sides of the journey since 1999 is the slow evolvement of the democratic culture. Many observers say the country has elected governments at different levels, but they were run more or less in a military fashion. Critics say a very bad precedent was laid when the Presidency was delivered to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo on a platter of gold, ostensibly to placate the Southwest region for the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election and for the death of the presumed winner of that election, Chief Moshood Abiola.

    After serving his tenure of two terms, Obasanjo engineered the emergence of the late Yar’Adua, who was terminally ill, as his successor, in a manner that ensured that power remained in the South after his exit. This precedent, it is said, has ensured that the leadership of the country remains in the hands of people who were not adequately prepared for the task beforehand. In deciding who gets a political party’s ticket for one position or the other, much emphasis are usually placed on the political correctness of the aspirant’s ethnic nationality, religion or the part of the country where the aspirant in question hails from; rather than competence.

    Yakassai puts it this way: “What brought this about is that the military under Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar decided to back a political party; they decided which party to hand over power to. As a result, they did not allow people to freely compete. So, they decided not only the party to hand over power to, but also the candidate that would succeed them. For whatever reason, they decided that one of them – a retired military officer – should succeed them. This affected the building of a democratic culture.

    “Even the person they imposed on Nigerians could not help to build democracy. After completing his eight-year tenure, he manipulated the choice of the persons that would succeed him (Yar’Adua/Jonathan). After Jonathan, another military man, Buhari, came back. So, while we have elected governments in place, such governments are not run on a democratic basis. Only a man with a military mentality will refuse to obey a court order, as we have witnessed in Nigeria in the last 18 years, particularly under Obasanjo and Buhari. Obasanjo refused to obey the court order to release local government funds to Lagos State, because of ego or personal reasons. A true democrat at heart would not refuse to obey a court order.”

    Besides, there is no much difference in the political parties, in terms of ideological orientation and therefore the electorates have no choice. In almost all the parties, money plays a significant role; individuals with deep pockets are invariably the ones that call the shots, particularly when it comes to determining who gets the party’s tickets for elective positions and manning of important positions.

    The Board Chairman of International Society for Civil Liberties & the Rule of Law (Intersociety), Mr. Emeka Umeagbalasi, said most of the parties do not see politics as a call to serve. He said: “One of their two main stocks in trade is to capture political office at all cost. Another is their mercantile attitude towards politics; whereby they see politics not as a call to serve, but as business enterprise or an avenue for primitive accumulation of wealth.”

    Nigeria’s democracy since 1999 has been marred by a record of allegations of mass rigging and electoral misconduct. There are usually accusations of ballot boxes being stuffed in beer parlours, police stations or homes of local politicians. When he came to power in May 2007, the late President YarAdua acknowledged that there were, indeed, problems with Nigeria’s electoral process. He promised to embark on a reform; and with that he launched a committee under the chairmanship of former chief justice, Mohammed Uwais. The Uwais committee toured Nigeria and came up with some recommendations that stakeholders believe would clean up the country’s electoral process.

    But the Yar’Adua-led administration took out some clauses in the Uwais report. For instance, the committee recommended that the head of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should be appointed by the judiciary, rather than by the President. But this recommendation was one of those rejected by the administration. Political analysts like Dr. Junaid Mohammed noted that it was precisely those clauses that were “most needed if any positive change was to be brought” that were expunged.

    Nevertheless, there are indications that further changes may be witnessed soon in the country’s electoral code. The 23-member Ken Nnamani-led Constitution and Electoral Reform Committee, which was inaugurated last October 4, recently submitted its report to the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr. Abubakar Malami (SAN).

    The committee recommended the unbundling of INEC and the establishment of new agencies to enable the commission to focus on its core mandate. It made provisions for the participation of independent candidates, Diaspora voting and the use of technology for elections.

     

  • The Fourth Republic in Crisis

    The Fourth Republic, or what we have somewhere else proposed as the Obasanjo Settlement, was tailor-made for a military strongman in civilian garb. It ought to be remembered that the military was never really conquered or subjugated by the NADECO rebellion. But it was clear that that the military had also exhausted their political and historical possibilities. Staying on would have been too costly and prohibitive and might have resulted in the eventual disintegration of the country.

    In order to withdraw from the scene with some dignity and with a semblance of honour and integrity, the military needed one of their own who would not allow the profession to be disgraced and hounded out of power, just like that. Better still if such a person had the political and moral authority of personal suffering and was a pan-Nigerian nationalist who was not sold on the political whimsies of his ethnic constituency.

    Obasanjo, the old Owu-born General who had been freshly sprung from Abacha’s humiliating dungeon, fitted the bill perfectly. He was one of their own who was not one of their own. As for the military ploy of looking for a compliant Yoruba who could pass, it exploded in their face as the Yoruba people saw through the gambit and roundly rejected their own.

    But to the extent that they also gave peace a chance and did not immediately commence another round of customary aluta or resort to their legendary war of legal nerves and attrition, the military gambit could be said to have succeeded in a circuitous manner. Whatever its worth, this was some elite pacting and consensus at work.

    However that may be, there was still a major problem. What made an Obasanjo, with his autocratic temperament and authoritarian outlook, a brilliant and sure bet for the project of demilitarization also made him particularly unsuitable for deepening the democratization process, more so in a nation emerging from the trauma of military despotism. Whether he likes to acknowledge it or not, Obasanjo’s self-succession and succession plots were a classic study in vengeance as statecraft. It has landed Nigeria in hot water.

    The Fourth Republic has become a nightmare of lost opportunities. Obasanjo’s policy of vengeful exclusion and the narrow social base of leadership recruitment in the country have led to the denial of public space to vibrant and visionary people who could have made sterling contribution to the rapid development and transformation of Nigeria. The result is the dramatic decline in the quality of leadership and poor governance that we are witnessing at the federal level and in most states of the federation.

    In order to sustain the illusion of order, ruling classes need an order of illusions. The disillusioned Nigerian populace appears to have seen through the grand chicanery, the illusionist fantasia, the buffooning pantomime, the mystifying fog of incompetence and brutish insensitivity.  As a result of this, the government has come under severe pressure from the margins, from below and from the aggrieved factions of the factionalized and fractured elite. Government has lost its magic.

    Elites mediate between the state and direct mob control.  In the traditional bastions of liberal democracy, elections are elite-driven mechanisms for effecting changes in leadership if and at when due. The elites retain the initiative to supervise the election and to superintend the outcome, based on elite consensus and cohesion. But where the angry multitude take direct charge of their destiny based on their perception of the moral and political collapse of the ruling class, the elite lose the power and capacity to superintend the outcome of elections.

    Hence, the foul and nasty atmosphere of rancor and disaffection currently subsisting in the country as elections approach. Hence, the imminent unraveling of the Fourth Republic. Hence, the looming apocalyptic meltdown of a nation that has consistently flirted with suicide ever since its emergence as a test tube baby of the colonial laboratory. The veil has been torn off and the aura of authority, power and prestige badly eroded. The Nigerian masses have sniffed blood.

    The calls for a shift or postponement of the elections such as credited to Sambo Dasuki in faraway Chatham House in London will not do. It is nothing but an imaginary resolution of a concrete political conundrum. Even if the elections are postponed for a year, the current foul atmosphere will still prevail as long as there is no demobilization of an already embedded and actively engaged mob. To do this, you need a degree of elite consensus and cohesion—- a circuitous no-brainer in the current circumstances.

    When you are faced with an impossible political conundrum, you reach for a paradox as a way out.  As conceived by its military progenitors, the Fourth Republic has reached the end of its tethers. Only a massive transfusion of fresh blood and an injection of a new vision of the nation such as can come from counter-hegemonic forces and bearers of an antagonistic logic fundamentally at variance with the current status quo can rescue the tottering republic.

    Whether the ascendant faction of the Nigerian ruling class will allow constitutional change through peaceful election remains to be seen. The stiff and ever stiffening local body language and the stalling and stonewalling from Chatham House do not indicate a willingness to submit to the supreme will of the electorate.

    Yet when all is said, it is clear that a drastic change in governance paradigm in this much abused country cannot be postponed for much longer.  It will be a typically Nigerian irony if the man who will clear the cobwebs and lay the foundation of genuine democracy, who will retrieve our lost girls and territory while institutionalizing accountable governance through devolution of power from the centre turns out to be another retired military strongman waiting in the wings for electoral clearance.

    No sane man has been known to argue with an earthquake. With the benefit of hindsight and in the absence of a strong, united, unified and countervailing nationalist political class which is the evil legacy colonial rule, the Fourth Republic is a military transition in progress from full military rule through some neo-military hybrid to a possible culmination in true civil rule, after the epoch of hybridization. This is the bane of all authoritarian societies in a state of traumatic transition to some form of modernity.

    The nearest examples of this kind of transition that come to mind are the far eastern countries, particularly South Korea which for a period was also under the spell and scourge of retired generals. But then, South Korea is a racially, culturally and religiously homogeneous country. Its ancient ruling caste stoutly withstood the ravages of Japanese colonization.

    Pity then the poor young man from Otuoke who was plucked as a callow apprentice by a deluded past master of political intrigues and thrown into a seething cauldron of ethnic, religious and regional animosities without a compass or a road map. So far, Jonathan has shown neither the granite strength of character, the psychological stamina and the gaming cosmopolitanism to rein in the fierce centrifugal forces nor the stirring helmsmanship to navigate a turbulent ocean brimming with sharks and piranhas.

    The events in his own imploding party show how far President Goodluck Jonathan has lost the plot. What remains is for him to negotiate a safe passage out of power with some honour but certainly not through the postponement of election or some other constitutional and extra-constitutional mischief which may well backfire.  The omens are dire indeed.