In politics, there is a thin line between affection and aversion. Anything can happen within minutes. Politicians are adept players in the game of possibilities, optimism, and hope on their slippery field. They are unpredictable.
There is no permanent friend or foe; the motivation is the interest – personal or collective – which can change suddenly or with time.
Nothing is strange since the end justifies the means. Ideology is a fading factor, a relic, and a compass long discarded. It is within the libertarian bounds of human rights that politicians in this clime do change political parties as they change their dresses.
Survival is key, even at the expense of morality, which fundamentally exists in a clear-cut antithetical relationship with politics.
Defection could be based on persuasion, conviction, compulsion and even pretence, whereby the move is not backed by visceral commitment but by hypocritical compliance.
Analysts are still dissecting the confusion that the political Babel in Rivers State has thrust on the polity to determine where Governor Siminalayi Fubara stands in the unfolding shift in political calculus.
Until last month, the governor was a card-carrying chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But barely two weeks as a chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), he is becoming a vociferous Tinubu-for-second-term campaigner, a disposition that aptly aligns with the wish of his predecessor and former benefactor, Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
It was not a solo defection. Key PDP chieftains who belong to his camp and serving federal legislators also defected with him.
Since his return to office after the emergency rule imposed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the governor, it appears, did a thorough soul-searching and critical self-assessment. He saw lightning, which generated panic. The governor drew an instant lesson, which made him dodge a likely thunder, which would have been more terrifying and devastating. Now, he says he has come in peace.
The end of the emergency rule has not put an end to his elongated nightmare. His defection trailed the movement of 17 House of Assembly members, led by Speaker Martins Amaewhule, to the APC. It is noteworthy that 10 lawmakers chose to stay back in the PDP for reasons that are not yet clear to bystanders.
To observers, the souls of the lawmakers had left the PDP a long time ago. They had attempted to defect during their mock exercise on the floor of the House of Assembly, which, nevertheless, paled into illegality. They only hid under the larger crisis in the PDP as an excuse to justify their latest action.
Defending the defection, Amaewhule said: “The reason for leaving the PDP is because of the clear division in the party today. The whole world is aware that, as of today, even the national headquarters of the PDP is not functioning as a result of this division.
“There are two factions in the PDP and the constitution is clear that when there is division in any political party, when the party is divided, members, including Assembly members who no longer have hope, can leave the party without dire consequences.
“The foundation of this defection lies in the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that allows members to leave the party that elected them. It becomes clear that there is a division in the PDP, and that is the reason for our joining the APC.”
Fubara has regained his seat, but there he is still battling with the crisis of influence. Up to now, there is no certainty of amity between him and ‘Wicked Wike,’ who commands the loyalty of the legislature.
It does not appear that the governor has also developed the confidence to forward the names of his commissioner-nominees to the aggrieved lawmakers, who may still be angling for a pound of flesh. So far, he presides over a state executive council that is “at half”.
The dramatic and strategic defection, notwithstanding, the gulf between the Executive and the Legislature is still deep. Amaewhule has alleged that Fubara has consistently refused to cooperate with the House of Assembly and that the governor filed court cases aimed at preventing the lawmakers from defecting to the APC.
What is indisputable is that the governor has transitioned from the previous precarious situation to a cozy relief as the state’s party leader, member of the Progressives Governors’ Forum, APC National Caucus, and ally of the President, kept under watch in the Southsouth.
Apart from his craving for survival, Fubara has a justification for bidding the PDP farewell. The governor said he left as a mark of appreciation to the President, who saved his career by declaring an emergency rule that averted an impending impeachment move.
The lesson of the six-month suspension is not lost on him. Fubara knew that repeating the error of the past could be costly.
“I don’t want to make any mistakes this time around. I also wish not to step on any landmine that anyone is laying for us. So, I was with Mr. President to brief him on the situation of things in our state, which I believe he has taken note of and is going to act swiftly on it,” he said.
The governor explained that he also considered the interest of Rivers State, which lost its peace during the Fubara/Wike rift, before taking the action.
Also, in rationalising his decision, which irked the fast depleting PDP Governors’ Club, chaired by Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, he explained that he jumped ship to avert future uncertainties and likely doom. He alleged that his former party failed him, despite the move by its governors to challenge his suspension from office.
It was easy for observers to point out that, so far, in his public speeches during and after the defection and the collection of APC membership card, Fubara never mentioned the name of Wike, who still has direct influence on the lawmakers, the local government chairmen and key stalwarts of the PDP and APC in Rivers.
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The question is: what next after Fubara’s defection? The defection, it would appear, is an element of the peace process, but total reconciliation is an unfinished business in the Southsouth state.
The horror of the past haunts the major players. The split in the Wike camp was least expected. Gladiators from the divided house started beating the drum of war after Fubara and Wike parted ways. The governor complained about highhandedness, warning his predecessor to stop unnecessary meddlesomeness. A very combative Wike fired back, saying that Fubara had neglected the agreed path and started leaning on foes who worked against him during the governorship poll.
The state became divided as Rivers’ elders took sides in the divisive issue. As the governor and lawmakers flexed muscles, the House of Assembly was in flames; 27 members became persona non grata and only an illegal and illegitimate three-member Assembly was recognised by the governor.
President Tinubu saw danger looming and moved decisively to avert chaos by proposing a peace pact. The Rivers warriors returned home to dump the terms.
Tension engulfed the state as Fubara and Wike exchanged tantrums in the media. The governor warned that the jungle was about to mature. From his base in Abuja, Wike dared his camp to foment trouble. Rallies and counter-rallies by fanatical supporters on both sides generated more anxiety. Then, there were fears that oil installations might be attacked. The President moved swiftly to restore order and avoid statewide pandemonium. The casualties of the emergency order were the Executive and the Legislature. But the people heave a sigh of relief.
It does not speak well of Rivers State that produced Melford Okilo, Ada George, Peter Odili, Rotimi Amaechi, Wike and Fubara that 26 years after the restoration of civil rule in Nigeria, its politicians could not resolve sundry differences and a minor crisis that escalated and warranted the suspension of democratic institutions for half a year.
The lot to fill the void and clear the mess fell on Administrator Ibot-Ekwe Ibas, who was only answerable to the federal authorities. Like the speed of lightning, the six months were over.
Then, Rivers resumed its unfinished conflict, which underscores the inability or refusal of leaders of the rival camps to forgive and forget.
The Rivers crisis is now the headache of the APC, whose leaders are expected to broker a truce between the governor and the minister, who is a PDP chieftain, a minister and loyalist of the President. On Asiwaju’s mandate do both of them now stand. Instructively, Wike still controls the PDP and APC structures in Rivers.
The onus is also on the ruling party to reconcile Fubara and the lawmakers, led by Speaker Amaewhule, so that he can peacefully forward his list of commissioner-nominees for screening without hindrance. After the necessary amity, the governor is entitled to earn their loyalty and support as the titular, imagined or real state party leader.
The third layer of peace building is the settlement of the rift or friction between the three members of the Assembly loyal to Fubara and their 27 colleagues to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
Then, the elders of Rivers, traditional rulers and leaders of thought who took sides and inadvertently fuelled the hullabaloo, should sheathe their swords and embrace peace as partners in progress.
Fubara has an ambition for a second term. He has come under the presidential shadow, as it were. Will he get the party’s ticket to run in 2027?
The answer lies in the womb of time. But it depends largely on the path the gladiators tread in the months ahead. Embracing peace will light up the state for accelerated development. But renewing the rancour will attract a cloud on the state and start a deluge of uncertainties.
