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Tag: gains

  • Gains, pains of multiple exchange rates, by IMF

    The exchange rate regime to be adopted by a country is dependent on many factors. They include the economic policy being implemented and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The regime adopted will come with benefits and consequences, an IMF report has said.

    The report titled: “Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy”, obtained from the Fund’s website, said the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime — floating, managed or fixed arrangements—for individual countries will have social and economic implications.

    It said these changes include the general increase in capital mobility and the abrupt reversals of capital flow to developing and transition economies.

    The report also said there is no single exchange rate regime that is best for all countries in all circumstances. “Member countries continue to have scope to choose the type of exchange rate regime that best suits their needs always with the proviso that the chosen regime must be credibly supported by policies consistent with the choice,” the report said.

    Continuing, the IMF document, which was posted on its website, said which exchange rate regime and associated policies are appropriate for a country depend on its particular circumstances.

    “While increased capital mobility has been leading an increasing number of countries to either end of the spectrum between firmly fixed rates (or monetary unification) and free floating, intermediate regimes are likely to remain viable and appropriate in many cases,” it said.

    However, Renaissance Capital (RenCap), an investment and research firm, has said foreign investors prefer to invest in countries with exchange rate, as against single exchange rate as being practiced in Nigeria.

    The investment and research firm, said many foreign investors are still worried about the multiple exchange rates operating in Nigeria, which remain a big challenge to foreign capital inflows.

    RenCap’s Global Chief Economist, Charles Robertson, who disclosed this during the RenCap ninth Annual Pan-Africa 1:1 Investor Conference in Lagos, said Nigeria will be better off adopting a single exchange rate.

    He said although the foreign investors have increased their interest in the economy, but the level of capital inflows would have been better were the country to adopt a single exchange rate.

    According to Robertson, “the main challenges for investors are on the front of liquidity: how can Ghana and Nigeria increase liquidity in the near future?” He said: ”Nigeria is looking better on most metrics, having accelerated growth, a stable currency and rising forex reserves, but needs to improve on bank lending which remains weak.”

    He added: “The cyclical story is again improving for much of Africa as commodities pick up. The credit rating downgrade cycle is basically finished. We think Nigeria will have one of the strongest growth accelerations in Africa in 2018, while the currency is well supported for 2018.”

    RenCap, an emerging and frontier markets investment bank, said the conference serves as a platform for closed door one–on-one meetings between top global and local investors from across the globe and over 30 corporate representatives to discuss investment opportunities in Nigeria and other fast-growing economies on the continent.

    The keynote speakers and panelists are Adedoyin Salami, a renowned Nigerian economist and Executive Director, African Business Research, and Mrs Patience Oniha, Director-General, Nigeria Debt Management Office, among other prominent business and opinion leaders.

    CEO Nigeria, Renaissance Capital, Temi Popoola, said: “This conference provides an opportunity to broaden and expand the narrative around investing in West Africa, a long term, broad objective of fulfilling our mission to providing client solutions and ensuring that we remain an innovative and ever-evolving partner to them. We hope to bring more visibility to the region and help facilitate increased capital inflows. We continue to believe Africa will be a $29 trillion economy in 2050, larger than the 2012 combined GDP of the US and the eurozone.”

    In her investor address, Oniha, said: “The combination of fiscal and monetary policy strategies adopted by the Federal Government has delivered results on several key parameters – GDP, inflation, external reserves, forex stability, etc. This trajectory is expected to continue. The reinforcement of the ongoing strategy through other policy measures, of which the focus is on generating non-oil revenues, is one of the factors that will boost economic indicators.”

     

  • Gains of pension scheme by NPC boss

    The acting Director General of National Pension Scheme (NPS), Mrs Aisha Dahiru Umar has described Pension Scheme as an avenue designed to make workers realise their target objectives in  life.

    According to him, retirement from active service is an opportunity to become the personality one has always intended to become but have never been.

    Speaking at a Pre-Retirement Workshop held yesterday in Kano, the Acting NPS DG who spoke through her Representative Mr Malami Bunza, the Assistant General Manager Benefits and Insurance of the Commission highlighted that the NPC had decided to organise the workshop in order to keep the retiring civil servants abreast with the modus operandi of the commission and the challenges of life after retirement.

    He said it is very important for the retirees to be furnished with all that they are expected to face  as challenges during their life after retirement. He pointed out that the lump sum of money which the retirees would handle has to be  invested wisely for fear of mismanagement and misapplication of priorities on frivolity.

    Bunza said there are conditions in which the retirees are expected to fulfilled before enrollment citing presentation of  Promotion letter, Last pay slip with Grade levels clearly stated  and step variations slip are  to be made available during documentations.

  • Gains, pains of school feeding programme, others

    How has education fared under the present administration, which celebrated its third anniversary on Tuesday? Nigerians give their verdicts on some of its intervention programmes, particularly its feeding of pupils and N-Power. KOFOWOROLA BELO-OSAGIE reports.

    WHEN he assumed office in 2015, President Muhammadu Buhari promised to feed pupils and provide jobs for youths. This gave birth to the Home Grown School Feeding Programme (HGSFP) and the N-Power initiative in 2016 under the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP).

    The government allocated N1.3 trillion for the implementation of the two and other programmes (Government Empowerment and Enterprise Programme -GEEP) to provide zero interest loans for over 1.2 million artisans and Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) to provide N5,000 to the poorest households.

    While the school feeding programmes provided mid-day meals to pupils in early child care development education classes as well as Primary 1-3, the N-Power was designed to create jobs for 500,000 graduates and an additional 100,000 unemployed youths.

     

    HGSFP- Feeding pupils and enriching

    criminals?

    With Nigeria home to about 10.5 million out-of-school children nationwide – the highest in the world, the HGSFP is regarded as one of those programmes that can boost enrolment and keep children in school.

    As at last February, the Special Adviser to President on Social Investment, Mrs Mariam Uwais, said the HGSFP had surpassed its target of feeding five million children nationwide – achieving its twin target of boosting enrolment and nutrition.

    This is apart from creating markets for farmers to sell their produce, and jobs for cooks/food vendors and others along the value chain.

    “Some 6,044,625 pupils are being fed daily in 20 states by 61,352 cooks in 33,981 primary schools,” she said in Lagos.

    Last week, the Presidency upgraded the number of children being fed daily to 8,260,984 pupils in 45,394 public primary schools in 24 states.

    The states are Anambra, Enugu, Oyo, Osun, Ogun, Ebonyi, Zamfara, Delta, Abia, Benue, Plateau, Bauchi, Taraba, Kaduna, Akwa-Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Jigawa, Niger, Kano, Katsina, Gombe, Ondo and Borno.

    A statement by the Senior Special Assistant on Media and publicity, Laolu Akande, added that the initiative had also created over 80,000 direct jobs – with 87,261 cooks preparing the meals in the 24 participating states.

    He spoke of plans to extend the programme to the 36 states of the federation and the Federal capital Territory (FCT).

    Head Teacher of Local Government Nursery and Primary School, Jagunna, in Ewekoro Local Government Area of Ogun State, Mrs Beatrice Daodu, said pupils in her school were being fed meals regularly.

    “Our kindergarten children and Primary 1-3 pupils are fed regularly.They had moimoin (bean cake) and eko (pap) today,” she said when The Nation visited last Friday.

    However, despite the benefits of the school feeding programme, it has been dogged by corruption.

    Bilyaminu Usman Bungudu took to the HGSFP Facebook page to complain of sharp practices in Zamfara State.

    “In Zamfara State, the programme is very poor due to the (activities of) politicians. They come in and put their wives and relatives in some schools in Zamfara (who do) not feed (but) share (the) money (among) (themselves). All the ATMs of vendors are (held) by their councillors. We need this organisation to come in and investigate the matter,” she wrote.

    Another resident of Zamfara, who worked as a monitor for the programme, Sharhabil Iyya, also lamented the fraudulent practices of the food vendors who reduced the food meant for the pupils.

    “I happened to be supervising the programme in some schools in one of the beneficiary states, but to no avail the programme manager discontinued us. Please tell Mrs Maryam Uwais to do something because there is massive fraud and connivance between the vendors and some head teachers and we have been able to exposed that, and also between the vendor’s and some influential peoples, especially in the villages. Because of the little allowances we are gaining, we did a tremendous work in fishing out erred vendors who refused to cook despite collecting money. Please the S.A. to the president on Social Investment Programme should do something. I so hope that this message reaches you,” he wrote.

    Mrs Uwais has admitted that corruption was the bane of the programme.  She said her office had received reports of diversion of funds by government officials meant to disburse to the cooks in many states and called for help from civil society organisations to monitor the programme.

    “We are struggling to battle with some issues.  In one state, state officials went as far as diverting 80 per cent of the cooks’ money from their account to a special account in connivance with the banks. In many schools, the programme is working well.  But we need feedback so we can catch the culprits,” she said.

    Mrs Uwais added that her team was aware of the need for collaboration to catch corrupt officials, but was hampered by lack of funds to mobilise independent monitors to support in monitoring the programme.

     

    N-Power

    The N-Power programme has a target of giving work to 500,000 graduates in education, agriculture and health sectors (for the graduates), and providing Information Communication Technology (ICT) skills for an additional 100,000 non-graduates.

    Vice President Yemi Osinabjo said so far, the N-Power programme had employed 200,000 youths and has plans to recruit 300,000 more.

    The participants are paid a monthly stipend of N30,000 for two years that the programme would last.  The hope is that they are able to move on to more stable employment or income-generating ventures afterwards.

    In the process of recruiting graduates for the programme, Mrs Uwais said the National Social Investment Office (NSIO) has been able to screen 2.5 million unemployed graduates, providing a veritable database for future planning for youths.

    “The N-Power portal, having processed over 2.5M applicants, hosts a database of unemployed graduates seeking employment and as such provides a veritable platform for engaging graduates for the country; private and public sector alike, with data providing details of qualifications, BVN, age, numbers, interests, etc,” she said.

    Challenges facing the programme include delay in deployment and payment of beneficiaries.  Many have complained about being owned backlogs of stipends or not knowing when payment would be made.

    Checks by The Nation revealed that a website, https://www.firstcalljob.com.ng/npower-monthly-salarystipend-latest-20172018-news-update/ which provides information by N-Power programme and deployment, was bombarded by beneficiaries seeking to know why their stipends were delayed in February.

    Some lawmakers have also been critical of the National Social Investment Programme, claiming the programme was poorly implemented.

    Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriation Senator Mohammed Danjuma Goje claimed that Nigerians did not feel the impact of the programmes.

    However, Mrs Uwais said not all the funds were released to the office.

    She said though N500 billion was appropriated for the NSIP last year, only N90 billion was released and this year, only N85 billion.

  • Gains, pains of economic revival

    The government initiated the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) for the economy’s restoration after the country came out of recession. To hasten up the job, an Efficiency Unit has been created in the Federal Ministry of Finance. The unit is to optimise public finance management and ensure efficient utilisation of revenue to help the government realise its goals. But its implementation, argues Senior Correspondent COLLINS NWEZE, remains a challenge.

    The Federal Government recently unfolded its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), which outlined how the country will get out of recession and attain stability and growth. The economic blueprint itemised the economy’s potential and how it can be harnessed for economic growth, development and the citizens’ good.

    The ERGP recognised that Nigeria has the potential to become a major player in the global economy by virtue of its human and natural resource endowments. However, this potential has remained relatively untapped over the years.

    Analysts said the content of the ERGP showed that government was already approaching the solution to the nation’s economic challenges with the same will  and commitment it had demonstrated in the fight against corruption and economic development.

    The belief that the ERGP had brought together all the sectoral plans for agriculture and food security, energy and transport infrastructure, industrialisation, among others means  it can actually be used to revive the economy.

    Besides, after a shift from agriculture to crude oil and gas in the late 1960s, Nigeria’s growth has continued to be driven by consumption and high oil prices. “Previous economic policies left the country ill-prepared for the recent collapse of crude oil prices and production. The structure of the economy remains highly import dependent, consumption driven and undiversified,” the ERGP said.

    The EERGP, a Medium Term Plan for 2017 – 2020, builds on the Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP)and has been developed for the purpose of restoring economic growth while leveraging the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people – the nation’s most priceless assets.

    It is also articulated with the understanding that the role of government in the 21st Century must evolve from that of being an omnibus provider of citizens’ needs into a force for eliminating the bottlenecks that impede innovation and market-based solutions.

    The plan also recognises the need to leverage science, technology and innovation (STI) and builds a knowledge-based economy. The ERGP is also consistent with the aspirations of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) given that the initiatives address its three dimensions of economic, social and environmental sustainability issues.

    However, stakeholders believe that cost reduction strategies for achieving greater macro-economic strategy and realising the goals of ERGP.

    President, the Consumer Advocacy Foundation of Nigeria (CAFON), Sola Salako, said every Nigerian will benefit from efficiency in implementation of available resources. She said efficiency in the management of resources will help achieve the ERGP goals, and save more funds for implementation of more projects. “Government should be seen as business of service and not means of acquiring wealth. The ERGP is key in helping government realise its objectives,” she said.

    An Economist, Henry Boyo, said government can be efficient in a productive process. He said having a progressive economic plan provides opportunity for government to be efficient, adding that the economy needs to be diversified and real sector promoted for the real benefits of ERGP to be realised.

    “For the economy to grow, the real sector has to be promoted. There is need to manage inflation, reduce cost of borrowing and have efficient exchange rate for the economy to thrive. Government has to implement budget efficiently for it to realise set objectives,” he said.

    In the Federal Ministry of Finance, the newly created Effeciency Unit is tasked with reviewing all government overhead expenditure, to reduce wastages, promote efficiency and ensure quantifiable savings for the country.

    The unit works across all ministries, departments and agencies to identify and eliminate wasteful spending, duplication and other inefficiencies. It also identifies best practices in procurement and financial management and share such knowledge with the MDAs to ensure its adoption.

    “Findings of the Efficiency Unit will be formally communicated accordingly and will be enforced through establishment of expenditure guidelines, undertaking follow-up reviews and spot checks. Other measures that will ultimately checkmate wastage across all areas of Federal Government expenditure will also be adopted, ’’  the statement said.

    According to the statement, the development is based on the fact that presently, the nation’s recurrent expenditure completely dwarfs capital expenditure by a ratio of 84/16. “This includes non-wage related overhead expenditure such as travel costs, entertainment, events, printing, IT consumables, stationery,” it said.

    The ERGP also indicated that oil accounts for more than 95 per cent of exports and foreign exchange earnings while the manufacturing sector accounts for less than one percent of total exports.

    “The high growth recorded during 2011-2015, which averaged 4.8 per cent per annum mainly driven by higher oil prices, was largely non-inclusive. Majority of Nigerians remain under the burden of poverty, inequality and unemployment. General economic performance was also seriously undermined by deplorable infrastructure, corruption and mismanagement of public finances. Decades of consumption and high oil price-driven growth led to an economy with a positive but jobless growth trajectory,” it said.

    According to the report, after more than a decade of economic growth, the sharp and continuous decline in crude oil prices since mid-2014, along with a failure to diversify the sources of revenue and foreign exchange in the economy led to a recession in the second quarter of 2016.

    “The challenges in the oil sector, including sabotage of oil export terminals in the Niger Delta, negatively impacted government revenue and export earnings, as well as the fiscal capacity to prevent the economy from contracting. The capacity of government spending was equally constrained by lack of fiscal buffers to absorb the shock, as well as leakages of public resources due to corruption and inefficient spending in the recent past,” it said.

    It said the current administration recognises that the economy is likely to remain on a path of steady and steep decline if nothing is done to change the trajectory. It is in this context that since inception in May 2015, government has made several efforts aimed at tackling these challenges and changing the national economic trajectory in a fundamental way.

    “The earliest action was the prioritisation of three policy goals: tackling corruption, improving security and re-building the economy. Consequently, the Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) for the 2016 Budget of Change was developed as a short-term intervention for this purpose. Visible successes and achievements have been recorded. However, it is recognised that more needs to be done to propel the country towards sustainable accelerated development,” it said.

    It said the ERGP differs from previous plans in several ways. First, focused implementation is at the core of the delivery strategy of the Plan over the next four years. More than ever before, there is a strong political determination, commitment and will at the highest level.

    “Whilst all the MDAs will have their different roles in implementing the Plan, a Delivery Unit is being established in the Presidency to drive the implementation of key ERGP priorities. The Ministry of Budget and National Planning will co-ordinate plan-implementation and for this purpose will, amongst other things, build up its capability for robust monitoring and evaluation,” it said.

    The plan outlines bold new initiatives such as ramping up oil production to 2.5mbpd by 2020, privatising selected public enterprises/assets, and revamping local refineries to reduce petroleum product imports by 60 percent by 2018. Other initiatives include environmental restoration projects in the Niger Delta, which demonstrate the Federal Government’s determination to bring environment sustainability to the forefront of its policies.

    “As part of this plan, oil revenues will be used to develop and diversify the economy, not just sustain consumption as was done in the past. The economy will run on multiple engines of growth, not just the single engine of oil. The Plan focuses on growth, not just for its own sake, but for the benefits it will bring to the Nigerian people. This plan also places importance on emerging sectors such as the entertainment and creative industries,” it said.

    Besides, the ERGP builds on existing sectoral strategies and plans such as the National Industrial Revolution Plan, and the Nigeria Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan. Rather than re-inventing the wheel, the ERGP will strengthen the successful components of these previous strategies and plans while addressing challenges observed in their implementation.

     

  • Equities rally N191b gains in opening trades

    Nigerian equities reopened yesterday on a bullish note as investors responded positively to impending release of corporate earnings and dividend recommendations by major quoted companies. The board of directors of United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc met yesterday and approved the audited reports and dividend payment for the year ended December 31, 2017.

    With More than three gainers to every loser, equities rallied average return of 1.22 per cent, equivalent to net capital gain of N191 billion. The sustained rally nudged the average year-to-date return to 15.85 per cent.

    The All Share Index (ASI)-the value-based benchmark index that tracks share prices at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) rose from its opening index of 43,773.76 points to close at 44,306.48 points. Aggregate market value of all quoted equities also rose from its opening value of N15.692 trillion to close at N15.883 trillion.

    Most sectoral indices closed positive, underlining the widespread bargain-hunting that dominated transactions yesterday. The NSE Industrial Goods Index led the gainers with a gain of 1.7 per cent. The NSE Banking Index followed with a gain of 0.9 per cent. The NSE Insurance Index rose by 0.6 per cent while the NSE Oil & Gas Index appreciated by 0.3 per cent. However, the NSE Consumer Goods Index was the only contrarian index with a drop of 0.7 per cent.

    There were 46 gainers against 15 losers. Dangote Cement- NSE’s most capitalised stock, led the gainers with a gain of N7.94 to close at N268. Stanbic IBTC Holdings followed with a gain of N1 to close at N45. Forte Oil and UAC of Nigeria rose by 60 kobo each to close at N50 and N17.60. Eterna added 43 kobo to close at N5.89. FBN Holdings rose by 37 kobo to close at N14 while Lafarge Africa and Union Bank of Nigeria gathered 35 kobo each to close at N52.35 and N8.10 respectively.

    Total turnover stood at 573.35 million shares valued at N5.88 billion in 6,756 deals. FCMB Group was the most active stock with a turnover of 169.12 million shares valued at N547.03 million. Access Bank followed with a turnover of 42.53 million shares worth N553.48 million while United Bank for Africa (UBA) placed third with 39.52 million shares worth N513.68 million.

    On the downside, Guinness Nigeria led the losers with a loss of N2 to close at N110. Nigerian Breweries followed with a drop of N1.75 to close at N150. Dangote Sugar Refinery declined by N1.01 to close at N20.95. Flour Mills of Nigeria dropped by 52 kobo to close at N30.90 while Guaranty Trust bank slipped by 30 kobo to close at N48.70 per share.

    “The market gradually recovered from the oversold region with bargain hunting by investors particularly in stocks that declined in prior sessions. Bargain hunting by investors will drive market performance in coming sessions in anticipation of 2017 earnings seasons,” FSDH Securities stated.

  • ‘Don’t use your office for personal gains’

    Akwa Ibom State Governor Udom Emmanuel yesterday swore in 31 elected council chairmen, all members of  Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who emerged victorious in last Saturday’s local government election.

    At the ceremony held at the Banquet Hall of the Government House, Uyo, the governor urged the chairmen not to use their office for personal gains.

    He warned them against giving excuses for poor performance and failure in delivering on their campaign promises to the people.

    His words: “Let me state here that the office you have just been sworn into today should not be seen as a platform for immediate gratification, or one where you would engage in conspicuous consumption to the detriment of the people who had sent you in the first place to represent them.

    “Let it remain true to its foundational principle, which is predicated on the unwavering commitment to rendering service to the people. If you provide selfless service, you will be celebrated and you will continue to soar, but if you sacrifice the people’s trust, your name will stand condemned in the people’s court and in the court of public opinion.”

    Continuing, the governor said: “I want to also reiterate the central point of my message on this occasion, which is that leadership is not about excuses or cop-outs; leadership is not about leaving the problems of today for tomorrow, leadership requires healthy doses of decisiveness and being proactive. Let this be your guiding principle.

    “As elected chairmen of your local governments, these words ring true today. The people have reaffirmed their faith in you, they have elected you to represent their interest, they have sent you to interpret the vision and governing principles of this administration, you must not fail them.

    “You must deliver for them and impact on their lives. As local government chairmen, you are the direct voice, the echo-chamber of the peoples’ issues and concerns. Please endeavour to listen to them and work to meet their demands to the best of your ability.”

    He said the victory of PDP in the council poll was a reaffirmation of the confidence Akwa Ibom people had in the party, adding that the election was free and fair.

  • Harnessing Gains of the 2017 Global Terrorism Index

    The Global Terrorism Index 2017 published by the Institute for Economics and Peace is one report that have excited Nigerians, home and abroad, and for good reasons too. The report indicated that terrorism related deaths fell by more than 80% for year 2016. There are other positives for Nigeria embedded in the 120-page report.

    An immediate plus is the renewed consciousness that it is possible for the mentions of Nigeria need not be all bad. Nigeria’s commitment to tackling Boko Haram head-on contributed to the plummeting of terrorism related deaths as reported. This confirms that in spite of the limited international support – what the country gets sometimes is sabotage – the Nigerian military, notably the army, have delivered on a core mandate of President Muhammadu Buhari, with results to show for it.

    While the elation around the report is understandable, the pointers it gave about moving forward must not be lost in the euphoria about the plunge in the number of people that Boko Haram’s attacks killed. Only a genuine appreciation of these indicators would firmly place Nigeria on the path of preventing the deaths that the terror group is still able to cause. This appreciation must be matched with corresponding actions for them to be meaningful.

    First, the Army, even with its superb leadership under Lieutenant General Tukur Yusufu Buratai, cannot and must not be left alone to deal with terrorism. If military action alone brought about an 80% reduction in deaths then a 99% fall in the number of terrorism linked deaths would have been possible if other stakeholders pitched in. We should at this point be asking why the police has not done more in massing to take over the protection of areas fully cleared by the army or why the intelligence agencies are not doing more to track would be suicide bombers or even why they have not been able to block the flow of new recruits to Boko Haram. We must also address why the military is left alone to deal with the menace of Boko Haram with only wits and brute force without the legislative support to specifically make new laws or upgrade existing ones to align with the realities of terrorism as many nations have done.

    Secondly, the report has exposed how the military have been maligned by a certain syndicate of miscreants and war merchants over time as not doing much to counter the terror group. The few instances where Boko Haram is able to strike soft targets is usually celebrated by some international interests and their domestics proxies, which is usually a boost to the terrorists that go on to use such tacit support as propaganda to recruit new fighters. In retrospect, the period covered by the Global Terrorism Index 2017 turned out to be one during which the army was criticized for not preventing Boko Haram attacks; since fact and figures do not lie, it is now clear that the military did have the upper hand over the terrorists.

    Also, the aspect of the report that touched on “Financing Terror” is one that should get us all thinking and acting. According to the report, “Boko Haram has also been financed by donations from group members, corrupt politicians and government officials as well as supporters or organisations based in other countries.” These are areas that the military had raised alarm about in the past and people dismissed such as trying to cow the opposition or accused of mounting propaganda. Now that we have read it from a neutral source perhaps we will now begin to take the issue of terrorism financing seriously and even review our transactions as individuals to ascertain we are not unwittingly funding terrorists. This development is also an eye opener about the activities of “organisations based in other countries”, which some Nigerians feel obliged to kowtow to because they always package themselves as one thing while in reality they are something else – the activities of groups like Amnesty International and its affiliates must be reassessed against the background of this information.

    Fourthly, there is the lesson that the terror group should continue to be treated as one cancerous case irrespective of how many factions it splinters into. The report had noted that “Following military defeats, Boko Haram split in August 2016 into three separate factions including a violent faction, one that aligns itself with ISIL and a third faction affiliated with al-Qa’ida.” The military must not stop its pursuit of terrorists even when the factions they supposedly belong to are reported to be less than barbaric than the other.

    Furthermore, as the military increasingly get drafted to address other threats to national security – like the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) that has also been designated a terror group or the outlawed Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) – it is imperative to address the nexus between other disturbances and terrorism as established in the report. The army under General Buratai must be commended for dealing with these other problems before they snowballed into the kind of horror show Boko Haram has evolved into. If one is not asking for too much, the insults poured on the military for proactively dealing with these problems should be revisited and it’s role in keeping the country secured in line with President Buhari’s promise acknowledged for mention.

    Much as Nigerians are keen on celebrating the Global Terrorism Index 2017, we must immediately address the issues raised above. This becomes imperative when one realizes that the next report would be using the current 20% death as the benchmark for assessing the following year, which could potentially translate into higher deaths by percentages even when the actual figures have fallen well below the previous year.

    Stakeholders must therefore address the obstacles that the military had faced even at the time it achieved the feat of dampening terrorism related deaths. This include ensuring that operation against terrorism do not lack funding, equipment, legislation and government support. The Federal Government must also find a lasting solution to the harassment of the country’s military institutions by so called international organizations that may well be the “organisations based in other countries” referred to in the report of the Institute for Economics and Peace. In fact, their activities should henceforth be appraised in a different light to ensure they are not sabotaging the military to ensure they can continue to chalk up civilian deaths to suit other agenda.

    While congratulating President Buhari, General Buratai and the Nigerian Army on the import of the report, one must mention that the progress indicate by the report is a call to do even more to end Boko Haram’s days of terror. The report in the section on “How Terrorist Groups End” posited that 35% of terrorist groups succumb to military/police defeat, 30% Internal splintering and 35% relenting after they have achieved their goals or entered politics. Boko Haram will never achieve its goal neither will it find a welcoming embrace in the political arena with its history of bloodletting. The military must therefore unleash more defeats that would further splinter the terrorists so that they will not have the space to take even 2 per cent lives before the next report is due.

    Murphy is a security expert based in Calabar, Cross River State.

  • MPC to consolidate forex, inflation gains

    MPC to consolidate forex, inflation gains

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will consolidate on the gains of the foreign exchange policy which has ensured stability as well as the continuous drop in inflation rate at its meeting today and tomorrow.

    The committee is likely to maintain the status quo on all rates according to analysts.

    The decision at the meeting, the fifth this year, is likely to keep the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which is the benchmark interest rate, unchanged at 14 per cent, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)at 22.5 per cent, Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent and the Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR- benchmark interest rate.

    Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa Limited Ike Chioke explained at the weekend that the committee members had agreed on the need for more fiscal-monetary policy coordination to sustain improvements in domestic macroeconomic fundamentals.

    He said with the economy now running out of high base effect driven moderation in headline inflation, there is likelihood that inflation rate will rise for the first time since the start of the year in September.

    He said given supposed price-anchored monetary policy regime, the MPC is not likely to cut benchmark rate in a period of rising inflation expectation.

    “MPR has become a less effective Monetary Policy Tool: the case for easing via benchmark rate reduction becomes weaker if the current disparity between the benchmark rate and short-term fixed income yields is taken into consideration. Although the recent bullish streak in the fixed income market has narrowed this spread, it is not enough to justify a cut in interest.

    “While our medium term outlook favours a gradual monetary easing, we believe the stabilisation of the forex market is paramount to achieving monetary policy objectives. The forex market, despite improvements recorded so far in the year, is still in a fragile state as the CBN is yet to harmonise all rates at the official market. As such, in the event that a unified rate is not achieved, monetary easing poses a threat for forex stability”.

    He said the current realities of Nigeria’s budget deficit, suggests the need for the fiscal authorities to continuously fund this disparity, which present tightening stance enhances; though at a higher cost to government.

    Managing Director Cowry Assets Management Limited Johnson Chukwu agreed with Chioke that the MPC will keep rates unchanged.

    “They will keep the rates the way they are. Inflation has moderated to 16.01 per cent and the economy has wriggled out of recession. So, this is not the right time to tamper with rates especially as the economic indicators are moving to positive direction,” he said.

    At the official market, the CBN continued with its weekly Small and Medium Ebterprises sales worth $100 million for spot and short tenured forwards under 60 Days while the Official rate improved from N305.95/$1 the preceding Friday to N305.90/$1 on Monday before eventually closing the week at N305.85/$1.

    This implies a marginal 3bps appreciation Week-on-Week. Similarly, at the interbank market, the domestic currency depreciated from N354.99/$1.00 on Monday to N356.99/$1 on Wednesday, but strengthened to N353.50/$1 by the close of the week, up 0.4 per cent Week-on-Week.

    At the parallel market, the naira exchanged for N369.70/$1 on Monday, strengthened to N367/$1.00 on Tuesday and traded flattish till the end of the week, up 0.5 per cent Week-on-Week.

    Despite the spate of forex interventions by the CBN, the external reserves have remained on the uptrend, reaching a 31-month high of $31.9 billion on September 19. This accretion to the reserves has been largely due to the stability in oil prices as well as improved production volumes and we believe this will give the CBN more impetus to continue with its interventions.

  • Southwest and mainstream politics: Where are the gains?

    Southwest and mainstream politics: Where are the gains?

    In the First and Second Republics, Southwest shunned the mainstream politics, following the failure of the defunct Action Group (AG) and the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) to form the government at the centre. Also, for 16 years, between 1999 and 2015, the region supported the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the Action Congress (AC) and later, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which were the opposition parties. However, for the first time, the zone voted for the All Progressives Congress (APC), which produced President Muhammadu Buhari. Two and half years after, has the Southwest gained from its alliance with the centre? Participants at the recent appraisal conference in Osogbo, the capital of Osun State, provided answers to the question. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU reports. 

    After many failed attempts, the alliance between the North and the Southwest gave birth to a national government during the 2015 presidential elections. The region was full of enthusiasm and expectation. Southwest political leaders believed that the alliance will halt the trend of marginalization and isolation and attract the hitherto elusive dividends of democracy to the geo-political zone.

    Unlike other zones, Southwest has been very cautious to collaborate with the distant Federal Government without clear terms. While the Southsouth, Southeast, Northwest, Northeast and Northcentral regions were natural allies of the central government, the Southwest seemed to believe in a bottom-to-top approach to development and its capacity to look inwards.

    But, there was a paradigm shift two and half years ago. Apart from voting for President Muhammadu Buhari on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the region voted for APC governors in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ogun, and later, Ondo States. Also, for the first time, the Southwest produced a vice president, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo (SAN). Following Buhari’s inauguration, Yoruba became Ministers of Finance, Works, Power and Housing; Steel and Solid Minerals Development, Communications, Health; and Minister of State for Niger Delta. The zone also got its share of ambassadorial, parastatal and board appointments. For the first time, the feeling of marginalization was fizzling out.

    Before 2015 polls, opinion was divided on the involvement of the Southwest in the ‘mainstream politics,’ which had become the barometer for gagging its disposition to federal power in a heterogeneous federation characterised by a puzzling diversity. Mainstream politics, according to observers, was a veritable weapon of sentiment and propaganda. The question was: should the Southwest join the central government to avoid imaginary political isolation or simply align with the Federal Government in anticipation of an exaggerated federal attention?

    The feeling was premised on the perception of the power-loaded Federal Government as the whipping master, which could guarantee easy progress to zones that have endorsed the ruling party, while at the same time turning a deaf ear to the cries of states governed by the opposition.

    Instructively, the entrenched political establishment in the highly enlightened and politically sophisticated zone refused to jettison its time-tested radical and progressive ideals for ultra-conservative ideology to secure a short cut to power at the center. In rejecting an inordinate collaboration with the centre, Southwest progressives leaders believed that they could not convince their vast followers, who since the pre-independence era, had rejected the promise of artificial political integration offered by few conservative kinsmen collaborating with feudalist and reactionary overlords, in preference for Awoist creed of ‘ Freedom for All, Life More Abundant.’

    The 2015 political strategy review heralded the cooperation with like-minds across the six geo-political zones under the banner of the APC. But, what gains have accrued to the region since then?

    At the Osogbo conference on the second anniversary of the Southwest in national governance, participants expressed mixed feelings. The theme of the conference chaired by former APC Interim Chairman Chief Bisi Akande was: Southwest To Abuja: A Mid-Term Appraisal. The one-day event was organised by Urban Media Resources Limited, led by activist Femi Odere. TThere were three sessions with different sub-themes. The first sub-theme was: ‘The Southwest In National Governance: An Appraisal Of The First Two Years.’ The second was: ‘Osun To Abuja: Investing In Social Infrastructure In A Recession. The third was: “Federalising Political Parties To Conform With Local Needs.”

    Participants included scholars, politicians, top government officials, members of the civil society, youths, women groups, students and artisans.

    Akande, former governor of Osun State, who was represented by former Secretary to Government Chief Sola Akinwumi, observed that the performance review and governance assessment would be more productive and educative, if they are used to critically recall and objectively evaluate past experiences rather than being done in regime isolation.

    The elder statesman focused on two imperatives. Akande cautioned on over-dependence on income from oil money. He also emphasized on the need to drastically cut waste. But, he also reflected on the present challenge and predicament of the ruling party. He said the APC should be henceforth, be encouraged to stimulate “deliberative democracy.” The submission is loaded with interpretations. He said this could be done by “frequently convening every organ of the party to brainstorming sessions where party leaders should discuss and be informed about various intended policies, plans and decisions of the party at its National Working Committee, at the state and the National Executive Committees, at the Board of Trustees, at the Elders’ caucuses, at the congresses and the convention levels.”

    He added: “Through such regular policy deliberations and understandings, party members could become reasonably adequately informed and enlightened, and they would thus become regular mouthpieces and foot soldiers of the party and its governments at all levels, with a view to favourably modulating and moderating the opinions of the general public, particularly now when Nigerians are reading back to the APC its manifesto promises and are looking forward to the party and the government to bring back true federalism.”

    Urban Media President Odere, who welcomed participants, said assessing the Southwest foray into the mainstream politics is a worthwhile exercise.

    Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola noted that Southwest has added value to the Federal Government through the alliance and contributed to national unity and stability. “We are happy that, for the first time, we in Afenifere have a part in the Federal Government. Yoruba have been there before, but it is the first time progressive Yoruba will be there,” he added.

    Activist scholar and former Vice Chancellor of Otuoke Federal University Prof. Bolaji Aluko was the Lead Speaker at the first session, which was moderated by a professor of International Relations from Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Prof. Alade Fawole. Discussants were Dr. Bisi Olawumi, veteran journalist and Mass Communication teacher at Bowen University, Iwo, and Ismail Omipidan, a journalist.

    Aluko observed that the North/Southwest alliance has produced mixed results. He submitted that, even if the Southwest is a country, it would survive, judging by its population, which was put at 28 million by 2006 Census, land mass and maritime opportunities. But, when he compared the internally generated revenue in states outside Lagos to their federal allocations, he discovered a huge gulf. Only Lagos and Ogun states’ internally generated revenue exceeded their allocations put at 73 billion and 27 billion respectively. “When the allocation is more than internally generated revenue, it is not sustainable,” Aluko said.

    He drew attention to the performance of Vice President Osinbajo, who held forth for President Muhammadu Buhari during his medical trip abroad. But, Aluko raised a poser: what have the ministers done to represent the Southwest that is worthy of pride? The criteria for assessment include energy, education, roads, housing, agriculture, ease of doing business, economic diversification and employment.

    On power, Aluko observed that while 4,000 megawatts of municipal power required for the region, with Lagos and Ibadan requiring 60 percent of the energy allocation, only 33 percent is allocated. Also, while the Federal Government has approved 13 solar power facilities, there is no one in the Southwest. There is one in Enugu. This is despite the fact that there is solar intensity in the Southwest that is more intensive than Germany.

    It is not surprising that Southwest is still the leader in tertiary education. Out of 40 federal universities, the region has six. Out of 67 private ones, the zone has 29. But, it also has its negative implications in the period of crisis. Aluko said: “The crisis in the university system will disproportionately affect the Southwest.”

    Aluko acknowledged the push for restructuring by the ruling party, in accordance with its campaign promises, stressing that its inevitability is dawning. The question, in his view, is who will bell the cat constitutionally? Urging Southwest governors to practice locally what they preach, he said, in the spirit of restructuring, they should not lord it over the councils.

    Omipidan, a political analyst, observed that Southwest is at cross roads. “Are we really enjoying harmony with the centre, despite the fact that the centre and the Southwest belong to the same party? How do we play our politics in the Southwest? Why can’t Abuja politicians cooperate with home-based politicians? We must as a region agree on what we want from the partnership. Our leaders and ministers are not on the same page. So, we may not benefit maximally,” he said.

    The quest for restructuring was an attractive topic to Dr. Olawumi. But, he said it should begin at the state level, urging the governors to give independence to local councils. The Bowen University lecturer urged Southwest states to do away with laziness, be creative and generate more revenues for development. He had harsh words for those representing the region, saying they have not exerted efforts to bring more projects to the zone. Olawumi emphasized that it required lobbying.

    He also berated the culture of dumping political parties at will, saying it smacked of lack of ideological orientation. “There is no ideological culture. People can be in three different parties in four years. It does not speak about integrity,” Olawumi fumed.

    The moderator, Fawole, expressed concerned over the attitude of the governors. He described them as local lords, pointing out that the council is groaning under their leadership. He said: “Nigeria cannot develop from the centre. We need to coordinate our developmental efforts in the region.”

    Aluko and Fawole also dismissed insinuations that restructuring will herald disintegration. Fawole said: “Nigeria will not break. There is an advantage in number. We can leverage on the huge population.

    Also, Aluko said: “Nigeria may not collapse, if we don’t restructure. The country will continue, but we will be unhappy.”

    At the conference were Elder Lowo Adebiyi, former Osun APC Chairman, his successor, Gboyega Famodun, Dr. Adebisi Obawale, Osun State Commissioner for Home Affairs, Pa Wale Lasisi, veteran educationist and Chairman of Osun State Civil Service Commission, Hon. Salensile,  Osun APC Secretary, Alhaja Fakolade,  Osun APC Women Leader, Chief Kunle Odeyemi, Prince Adelani Bolarinwa, Osun State Commissioner for Information, Iyaloja Asindemade, Semiu Okanlawon, Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Sola Fasure, Chief Press Secretary to governor, David Morakinyo, Oladosun Ogunremi, Osun East APC leader and Jimoh Adekunle, a leader of the Motorcyclist Association.

  • Kachikwu lists gains of gas policy

    Kachikwu lists gains of gas policy

    The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, has listed the benefits of the National Gas Policy.

    Kachikwu said the policy would make gas a hub of the economy, stressing the need to have a stream of revenues between petroleum and gas to improve the economy and leverage opportunities in the oil and gas sector.

    He said: “This policy document builds on the policy goals of the Federal Government for the gas sector as presented in the 7 Big Wins initiative developed by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the National Economic Recovery & Growth Plan (ERGP 2017 – 2020).

    “The policy articulates the vision of the Federal Government, sets goals, strategies and an implementation plan for the introduction of an appropriate institutional, legal, regulatory and commercial framework for the gas sector. It is intended to remove the barriers affecting investment and development of the sector. The policy will be reviewed and updated periodically to ensure consistency in government policy objectives at all times.

    “The gas policy intends to move Nigeria from an oil-based to an oil and gas-based industrial economy, which will be driven by the core principles by separating the respective roles and responsibilities of government and the private sector, establish a single independent petroleum regulatory authority, implement full legal separation of the upstream from the midstream, and implement full legal separation of gas infrastructure ownership and operations from gas trading.”

    Other benefits include realising more of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) international downstream value, pursue a project-based, rather than a centrally-planned domestic gas development approach and make a strong maintenance and safety culture a priority.

    It will also ensure the implementation of international best practice for environmental protection, establish strong linkages with electric power, agriculture, transport and industrial sectors, establish payment discipline throughout the energy chain, honour stability of contract terms, ensure security of assets and ensure compliance with the Nigerian Content Act.

    The National Gas Policy covers governance (legislation and regulation), industry structure, development of gas resources, infrastructure, building gas markets and development of national human resources.