Next year’s General Elections, particularly the presidential election, is beginning to become all the more interesting with the entrance into the race of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the flag bearer of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will be in grand delusion if it underrates the capacity of the former vice president to worm his way into the hearts of Nigerians. Well, if you like, you may call them gullible Nigerians. While you reserve the right to so refer to them, it should also be realised that ‘gullible’ is only an adjective. Both the gullible and the not-too-gullible are entitled to one vote each once they are of voting age. And, at any rate, is today’s world not being governed largely by gullibility? If not, what would a Donald Trump be doing in the White House in America? Coming back home, why would a governorship contest between APC’s cerebral Gboyega Oyetola and PDP’s governorship hopeful in the hotly contested Osun State governorship election, Ademola Adeleke, renowned for his entertainment prowess, almost have gone the way of Adeleke but for providence?
For now, we can only console ourselves by hoping that the other front runners in the October 6 PDP National Convention which produced Atiku as winner would renege on their promise not to back whoever won the primary. But if they remain in the PDP fold, then the opposition party is likely to produce a formidable side to reckon with when the election comes. Make no mistake about it; those who ensured Atiku’s victory at the primary knew what they were doing. It was high-wire politics both from within the PDP and from without. To snatch the presidency from Buhari is too big a role for Lilliputians like Senate President Bukola Saraki. Atiku is more like it. That was their reckoning; and everyone of them in the race seemed to have accepted it that way because there is a common enemy that they all want out of power: Buhari, for very obvious reasons. Many of them who have survived the government so far cannot be sure of being lucky if President Muhammadu Buhari returns.
But that is not to say that the Buhari government has not played into their hands several times. It would however be a tragedy of monumental proportions if the PDP gives the ruling APC a good run for their money during the presidential election, or even has a better showing in the election outright. Indeed, it is not good enough if we have a repeat performance of Osun governorship election at the presidential election next year. I mean the APC has to win the election, if it must, convincingly at first attempt. The party will have itself to blame if PDP gets so close as to warrant a rerun. It would be worse for the APC to be crying foul while the PDP is running away with the trophy. Yet, if any of these frightening scenarios plays out, President Buhari should accept responsibility. It would amount to sheer scaremongering if a ruling party is the one weeping that the opposition rigged it out.
Trust former President Olusegun Obasanjo, he has swiftly endorsed Atiku, his one time political foe. What this endorsement of his former vice (yes, vice!) tells us is that in politics, there are no permanent friends or permanent foes, but permanent interests. We know that Obasanjo and Atiku had both gone their separate ways even while the latter was Obasanjo’s deputy in the Obasanjo administration (1999-2007). As a matter of fact, some account had it that Obasanjo prostrated for Atiku to get his second term when it seemed that his return ticket was under threat. Yet, it was Obasanjo that routed for Atiku while the latter was governor-elect in his Adamawa State. But, Obasanjo, who many believe neither forgives nor forgets, has not failed to demand his pound of flesh from Atiku whenever the opportunity presents itself.
Only a few months ago, Obasanjo had vowed that nothing would bring him close to Atiku again, at least politically, and that as a matter of fact, God would not forgive him if he did. This was a vow to which Atiku too replied that if his former boss had any issues with his creator, he should go sort them out with Him. Obasanjo seemed to have eaten his words and has now anointed Atiku as his presidential preference in next year’s election. The former president even waxed biblical in pardoning Atiku. He said with Nigerians voting for him, next year, “It will be with the hope or assurance of a Paul on the road to Damascus Conversion. After all, change and conversion are of man. I believe that with a contrite heart, change is possible in everybody’s life and situation.”
Again, just as this piece was being put together on Friday, I stumbled on a World Bank report that ranked Nigeria 152nd out of 157 countries. I know the government is going to react to this negatively rather than do introspection to see where its economic policies in particular require tweaking. That was the way the immediate past Goodluck Jonathan administration dismissed all such reports instead of doing something to change the situation for better. I wonder why government officials suddenly become paranoid about such reports when what is required is to do the rightful. But, the World Bank is not the only institution that is saying that something is wrong. The Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, has warned that Nigeria may remain the world’s poverty capital even as former United States envoy John Campbell parroted what has always been known about Nigeria being Africa’s troubled giant.
What one would expect is informed reaction to such statements and assertions from the seat of power. For instance, two take-aways from Chief Obasanjo’s statements when Atiku called on him centred on ethnicity and the economy; stupid! Again, Obasanjo said nothing new. These have remained sore points of criticism of the Buhari administration since its inception. What one expects is for the president’s aides not to dismiss these with a wave of the hand because they reflected the government’s style for long. Presidential aides or government officials who want to take on these allegations should tell us what has changed, instead of making it look as if the allegations are entirely baseless.
Moreover, APC should dwell more on its own achievements rather than keep telling Nigerians that Atiku is corrupt. They have been hearing that for years. This is sad to say though; but the point is that not many people see the government’s anti-corruption war in the same light as they saw it in 2015. Not a few have the feeling, rightly or wrongly, that there is little difference among the parties corruption-wise.
Honestly, this is not about sentiments. Notwithstanding my reservations about Obasanjo, the APC cannot want us to believe that his views now count for nothing. When he tore his PDP membership card about four years ago and pitched his tent with the Buhari team, the event was widely celebrated by the then opposition party and the then presidential hopeful’s handlers.
Nothing I have said foreclosed anything happening because, as they always say, ‘it is not over until it is over, especially in politics. President Buhari and the APC still have about four months to change the tempo of the game. They still have an ample opportunity to step up their performance in order to secure a straight, incontrovertible victory at the polls.
We need no one to tell us that this might jolly well be Atiku’s last opportunity at the presidency. He will be 72 next month; and if he loses the election, he has to wait till 2023, by which time he would be about 76 years old. Buhari became president at about the same age (72). But, going by the new mantra of not-too-young-to-run, a 76- year-old aspirant could be considered too old to run for the country’s number one seat by 2023. If Atiku sees this as his last chance, he would put everything into it. So, unless a miracle happens, the next elections would be tough. It is one in which virtually everyone concerned would put in their all to secure victory. If anything, Atiku is a veteran in the country’s political arena; he understands the game. Not only that, he also has deep pockets and he would spend as if spending is going out of fashion. Atiku has probably attained all that he craved for in life; fame, wealth, influence. Perhaps the only thing after his heart is the presidency. He would do everything to get it.
At this juncture, what I expect the APC to do is to collate all the criticisms against it; distill them and provide credible answers/solutions to them, irrespective of whether the claims are true or false; it is all about perception. The government could be swearing that certain things are not the way they look; if Nigerians are not sufficiently persuaded, whatever the government says will amount to nothing. This is where the Buhari government has to be careful. It should stop talking to itself; it should as a matter of fact listen more because that is the way it would not delude itself that there is no cause for alarm when in fact, nothing is under control. Just as I said after the Osun State governorship election, an election that the ruling party should win hands down at the very first ballot should not become a subject of controversial rerun just on account of delusion.
Like Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State, shortly before meeting his political waterloo at the last governorship election when his dream of choosing his successor crashed under his very eyes, many Nigerians will be in great pains if APC, by omission or commission, allows the PDP that Nigerians rejected less than four years ago to become the cornerstone, and so soon. Most poignantly, that would not be a good emblem for the Buhari government’s anti-corruption crusade.