I have always followed the development in the political economy of Germany for several reasons. I spent three months as a postgraduate student in the Historisches Seminar in Hamburg University in 1968 when I was researching for my doctorate degree on an aspect of the First World Way in which Imperial Germany (Kaiserlichen Deutschland) was a major participant. Any student of History who has not studied German history has missed a lot especially about the importance of geographical location, political leadership, military power, a people’s sense of history and their place in it and nationalism as an important factor in the national trajectory of a people.
I knew I had to visit the home of Bismarck to properly appreciate his position in German history. I also visited Germany when I was already a senior lecturer in the University of Lagos and had the privilege to have a ride on a German gunboat on the Baltic Sea and to watch the prickly relations between West and East German navies during the sad days of German division and loss of territories to Poland and Russia arising from Germany’s defeat in the Second World War creating feelings of irredentism in Germany up till today. The German authorities’ knowledge of my understanding of German history made Chancellor Helmut Kohl to tell me in 1991 that I was a lucky ambassador who knew Germany before being ambassador and he was right.
During the struggle for modern German unification in the1980s and 1990s, Margaret Thatcher, the British prime minister was opposed to Germany’s unification by saying she loved Germans so much that she preferred to deal with two German states rather than a united big one! Of course she was overruled by the Americans who, for geo-political reasons preferred a unified German state as a bulwark against Russian communism. To appreciate European politics and the place of Germany in it, one must be solidly buried in the political and economic place of Germany in the world. One may not like Germans because of the terrible horrors inflicted on Europe and the rest of the world by Nazi Germany, but one must appreciate their role as the fifth or fourth economic power in the world. One of my favourite professors whose books I read with avidity when I was in England was the Regius professor of modern history at Cambridge University A .J P Taylor who wrote a book on “The origins of the Second World War” in which he explained and tried to justify the rise of Adolf Hitler as being due to the unfairness of the Versailles diktat of 1919. Even though his scholarship was impeccable, he was shouted down by the conservative forces in Britain and a colleague professor, Alan Bullock, a Regius professor of History at Oxford University wrote his voluminous study on Germany which he called “Adolf Hitler: A study in Tyranny” in which he systematically destroyed AJP Taylor’s thesis challenging his professional objectivity in the process. Since then, German war guilt has been established and Germany’s role in global politics and economy has always been viewed with historical hindsight and perspective.
The recent German election in which the AFD (Alternatif fur Deautscland) came second to the CDU (Christian Democratic UNION) and its smaller Bavarian partner the CSU (Christian Socialist Union) has been received with alarm in Europe but not in Washington Republican circles where right wing parties are currently favoured and especially in the White House where right wing parties in Europe and Asia are seen as allies or potential allies. In a highly contested election in which about 80 percent of the electorate voted, the AFD got about 20.9 percent which was about 10.3 million of the vote while the outgoing German chancellor Olaf Scholz’ party got only 16.4 percent which translates to about eight million votes while the winning CDU/ CSU led by Friedrich Merz won 29 percent, translating to about 14 million voters. Other parties such as the GREENS got about 11.6 percent which is about 5.7 million voters , the Left (LINKS) leftover of the Communist Party and fellow travellers 8.8 percent about 4.9 million voters, BSW ( this is an extreme left wing party founded in 2024 ) got 4.97 percent, about 2.4 million voters, FDP (Free Democrats/ Liberals) 4.3 percent about two million voters. This party was part of the coalition that has just been defeated. It will have no part in the next government because there is a law that prohibits any party with less than 5% support any role in government. The fate of the FDP or Liberals, the party of the long serving foreign minister, Herr Dietrich Genscher in Germany until his death deserves comment. Liberalism as a credo of political party is now almost discredited everywhere in England, America and in Europe; it’s almost a bad label in the United States. The other parties that do not qualify for representation in government or parliament include the LINKS (LEFT) which is by law excluded from coalition government.
The perennial political situation of coalition governments in Germany is because the country is doomed by a complicated constitution and electoral system of broad agreement, not the majority passes the post as in England, it is difficult to have a clear winner of election in Germany. Herr Friedrich Merz now has to shop for partners to form the government. He is likely to approach the SPD of Olaf Scholz who may decide not to be in government because he has become very unpopular in Germany and he may want to rebuild the dwindling Social Democratic Party which for some time was very dominant in German politics. It was the party of Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder before Scholz. Friedrich Merz would also bring the Greens along into his government because protecting the environment is a major platform and obsession in Germany.
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I must say here from my experience that Germany is the greenest country in the world. When I was ambassador of Nigeria in the country and a member of our delegation to the first conference of parties to United Nations Conference on Climate Change dedicated to locating a secretariat for the conference, I had no reason not to nominate Bonn as the future secretariat because of the cleanliness and greenery of the city and our nomination was approved by the majority of the delegates. In short, we are likely to see a new German government headed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz in which the Social Democratic Party and the Greens will be involved and the AFD will become a powerful opposition in the Bundestag.
The government will be confronted with the problems of resuscitation of the economy which has remained flat for three years because of competition from China especially in the automotive sector where Germany was previously supreme as witnessed by the predominant position in the world by such German cars as Mercedes Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, and their subsidiaries in Europe. German domination of the fast train technology has been surpassed by Japan. The Germans are still very prominent in chemicals, medical and pharmaceutical sectors. The problem is that Germany has been lagging behind in innovation and cutting edge technology and with the coming of AI dominated by the USA and China and increasing protectionism championed by the United States of America and China. Germany is facing a difficult future. Germans are even beginning to question the European idea in which German economy and politics are tied up with because it doesn’t give the country the leverage and space to negotiate an independent path separate from that of the 27 country European Union. Facing Germany is both the new American administration of Donald Trump which wants to meddle in the politics of Europe as seen in Elon Musk and JD Vance the American vice president’s supporting the AFD the right wing party in Germany during the recent elections. Friedrich Merz is also determined to take a more pro-Ukraine line in the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia and in building a more potent German army even though Germany’s protocol of surrender in 1945 prohibits this and this is why Germany does not have nuclear arsenals protecting it from Russia and has to rely on nuclear deterrence from Great Britain and France, former enemies. If push comes to shove, Germany may be forced to defend itself by all means possible in a Europe decoupled from America which is increasingly asking Europe not to rely on it and to defend itself.