An independent survey conducted by Lakewhyte Communications Limited has said that governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Godwin Obaseki, is in a good position to win Wednesday election.
The survey said Obaseki has been rated higher based on his antecedents and based on the fact that Governor Adams Oshiomhole had performed well.
It said from the 10,000 prospective voters sampled in the survey, 64.32 percent promised to vote for Obaseki while 34.92 percent said they would vote for Ize-Iyamu.
According to the report, “On the question of Better Knowledge of Governance and capacity to deliver on promises, 6,217 of the respondents (62.17 percent) preffered Godwin Obaseki of APC, while only 3,701 (37.01 percent) opted for Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of PDP. A total of 82 number of responses were invalid.
“They responded to the second question in almost the same manner. Asked who they would vote for, 6,432 (64.32 percent) pledged their votes would go for Obaseki, while 3,401 (34.01 percent) responded in favour of Ize-Iyamu of PDP.
“If this trend pans out, and all things being equal, it will mean that the APC candidate, Godwin Nogheghase Obaseki, will likely win the governorship election with a margin of about 30 percent over his rival.
This Survey also examines the two Candidates’ areas of Strengths and Weaknesses and tries to determine who would likey have an edge in the scheduled poll.
“Obaseki’s strengths are in five critical areas: (1) Being a member of the party in power at the federal level. This could be an advantage as people of the state would want to vote for APC to be able to enjoy benefits that may accrue from that level of government. (2) Unity of purpose by his party members in the state. Obaseki has the full support and backing of APC members in and outside the state.
“Even those who lost the party primaries have all joined forces to ensure the party’s victory at the poll. This was the result of the reconciliatory efforts he and Governor Adams Oshiomhole made to appease aggrieved members. (3) APC’s clear and practicable manifesto. This is another attraction which his party commands and which will likely work in Obaseki’s favour on Wednesday.
“The Oshiomhole factor is unputdownable. He is an enigma in the Edo political equation. Although his achievements in the past eight years can easily speak for themselves, the Governor has used every opportunity available to recount them and market them to the people. He told the people that all they needed was a tested successor to continue in the same stead.
“Obaseki will likely enjoy tremendous geo-political advantage. Edo State seats on a tripod. Edo South senatorial district has 58 per cent of the voting population; Edo Central has 16 per cent, and Edo North has 26 per cent of voters in the state. Incidentally, the zone where PDP commands a seemingly huge popularity is the Central zone, where it has the likes of Chief Anthony Anenih, Chief Tom Ikimi, Mike Onolemenme, Senator Clifford Odia, Senator Odion Ugbesia and others with the exclusion of former governor and senator, Prof. Osunbor as well as the Igbinedions.
“The people of Edo North, with 26 per cent of voters, will likely cast almost 100 per cent for Obaseki because of the Oshiomhole factor and the area where his Deputy hails from. It would be recalled that recently, Traditional rulers of all the three zones pledged their support for Obaseki and his Deputy, Phillip Shaibu.
“They hinged their support on the fact that Oshiomhole had performed exceedingly well compared to others in the last 16 years of democracy and of the need to support Obaseki, who is also part of the Oshimhhole success story, rather than voting for someone who was part of what some have described as the dark days of development in the state.
“Added to this is the fact that Edo State has 18 local government areas with 24 seats in the House of Assembly. Of this number, PDP has only three constituency seats, while APC has 21 seats, a situation that will make it extremely difficult for the table to turn in favour of PDP, as members of the Edo State House of Assembly would also defend their turf electorally.
“Weakness: The only known weakness of Obaseki is the perception that he is a stooge of Governor Oshiomhole. Being an expert in economic management, some believe that he would likely emphasise higher taxation in a bid to generate more income for the state it stated.
“While Ize-Iyamu’ Strengths lies on the fact that he is a formidable politician who also knows the party he is contesting against – APC – inside-out. His strength in the Wednesday election rests mainly on his political sagacity. Generally, his campaign messages seem not as credible as his opponent’s as they are centered mainly on tackling the APC’s perceived failures without proffering credible solutions.
“His Weakness: Many unresolved issues appear to be working against Ize-Iyamu’s chances in the forthcoming election. Three of them are notable: (1) Credibility question. He is widely perceived as a representation of the Igbinedion legacy of non-performance and corruption.
“He occupied at the time, two strategic positions, as Chief of Staff, and Secretary to the State Government. In addition, he was alleged to have been the one that signed most of the fictitious multi-billion naira contracts in that administration, which were never executed.
“The factionalisation of PDP at the national level, which has rubbed off on the party in the state. Although INEC has recognised him as the candidate of the party, others who contested with him in the primaries have largely deserted him including many notable PDP politicians from his zone and beyond. His supporters are mainly from Edo Central district that may not be able to win the election for him because of population disadvantage.
“As can be seen, even the above SWOT Analysis conducted favours the same trend of thought expressed by potential voters above. In other words, that the APC candidate has higher chances of clinching the Governorship seat than his PDP counterpart,” it stated.
