The Nation Newspaper

Tag: governorship

  • APC, PDP disagree on INEC’s new timelines for Rivers

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have disagreed over the new timelines by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Rivers State Governorship and House of Assembly elections.

    Rivers APC, through its Publicity Secretary, Chris Finebone, on Thursday in Port Harcourt, declared INEC’s announcement was suspect and received with mixed feelings, alleging the electoral commission had not shown good faith.

    But Rivers chairman of PDP, in a statement by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Jerry Needam, however, said members of the party received the INEC’s news with optimism.

    Rivers APC said: “As a major stakeholder in the Rivers State political space, APC received with mixed feelings, INEC’s timeline for concluding the governorship and House of Assembly elections that started on March 9.

    “INEC has not shown sufficient good faith in the way it brought the collation to an abrupt stop (on March 10), without cogent, verifiable and convincing reasons.

    “The supposed umpire (INEC) went ahead to announce that collation for 17 local government areas (out of 23 LGAs in Rivers) had been concluded, as against the records provided by our situation room. And to make matters worse, INEC refused, failed or neglected to name the said 17 LGAs where it claimed collation had been concluded.

    “INEC curiously announced that it had dropped four LGAs’ collation officers confirmed to be PDP card-carrying members, without the umpire clearing the air about the status of the LGAs’ results the four ad hoc personnel supposedly collated.”

    The main opposition APC, which backed the African Action Congress (AAC), since court order did not allow it to present candidates for the elections, also wondered why the four indicted collation officers of INEC would be unfit for the job, while the collations they conducted were acceptable.

    APC in Rivers said: “Why is INEC jittery to name the 17 LGAs, if not for the simple reason that some underhand dealings might have taken place, for which it is covering up?

    “With the violation of the collation process by Governor Nyesom Wike when he stormed the Obio/Akpor LGA Collation Centre (at the council’s secretariat in Rumuodomaya, Port Harcourt in the night of March 9), where his Chief Security Officer (CSO) and security detail that shot an army captain and other soldiers in the process, why does it seem that INEC’s body language is suggesting that Obio/Akpor LGA’s collation has been completed?

    “To the APC, INEC is up to some mischief, clearly pointing to a clear determination to rig the overall results of the March 9 elections in favour of Wike and the PDP. The signs are visible enough to the blind and loud enough to the deaf. All the shenanigans so far exhibited by INEC only go to confirm that fear.”

    But the PDP chair said: “Even though we frown at the length of the timeline issued by INEC for the collation, declaration and conclusion of the election process in Rivers State, we received the news with optimism.

    “Rivers State PDP is waiting patiently for the process to be concluded, because the people of Rivers State overwhelmingly voted for our party.

    “We urge Rivers people to remain calm, as the mandate they freely gave to Governor Wike and the PDP on March 9 will be affirmed at the end of the collation process.

    “Victory for the PDP will come at the end of the exercise. Rivers State is PDP. The people massively voted for the PDP, as all the figures indicate.”

  • Governorship: Sanwo-Olu, Abiodun, Abdulrazak lead

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) appeared to be heading for victory last night in the governorship election in Lagos, Ogun, Kwara, Kebbi, Sokoto and Bauchi States as results began coming in from the various polling booths.

    The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was looking good in Adamawa, Enugu, Delta, Ebomyi and Akwa Ibom States.

    In Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the APC who was projected by The Nation as the candidate to beat yesterday, established a strong lead ahead of his closest rival, Jimi Agbaje of the PDP with the majority of the votes   cast in such areas as Ikorodu, Alimoso, Badagry and Lagos Island.

    Sanwo-Olu was the preferred candidate at Vice President Yemi Osinbajo’s polling unit in Victoria Garden City, Lekki.

    He got 223 votes there as against the 175 votes polled by Agbaje.

    The ruling party lost to the PDP by a wide margin during the presidential election two weeks ago.

    At PU 007, Anglican Primary School, Iworo, Badagry LGA the APC candidate got 207 while the PDP received 74 votes.

    Prince Dapo Abiodun of APC held firm in most parts of Ijebu, Remo , Egbaland and Otta.

    He also did well in Yewaland although Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM)   seemed to have an edge there, being an indigene.

    Alhaji AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of the APC appeared to have confirmed the uprooting of the PDP in Kwara State with another emphatic win.

    AbdulRazaq won his polling unit at Idigba, Adewole ward with 592 votes as against PDP’s 80.

    He also got 201 votes at Ode Oba Onilu, Ilorin as against the 52 for PDP.

    At press time, there was a wide gap between his votes and what the PDP candidate Razaq Atunwa had garnered.

    It was also clear that Governor Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State had won in most of the polling centres where INEC returning officers had announced results.

    Bagudu got 572 votes against the 7 received by Sen. Isa Galaudu of PDP at Iyan Gwandu polling unit 012, Marafa ward.

    In Nasarawa 2 polling units 002, Bagudu got 526 votes and Galaudi 98.

    At polling unit 008 at GRA Kindi Zauro, Nasarawa ward in Birnin Kebbi, Bagudu scored 354 while Galaudi, scored 87.

    In Garkar Mai-Alelu polling unit 006, where the governor cast his vote, the APC received 745 votes against 23 garnered by the PDP.

    The trend was similar in Sokoto and Bauchi State.

    Official results from polling stations in Adamawa, Enugu, Delta, Ebonyi and Akwa Ibom gave it to the PDP candidates.

    The PDP won the governorship election in former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s polling Unit 012 of Ajiya Ward of Adamawa North Local Government Area.

    Announcing the results at the unit, the presiding officer declared that the APC polled 99 votes while the PDP scored 161 votes. The ADC candidate scored 51 votes while the SDP candidate got only one vote.

    Similarly, the PDP trounced the ruling APC with a 50 votes margin at the polling unit in front of Adamawa State deputy governor’s office

    According to the announced results, APC scored 63 votes, while PDP got 113 votes. The ADC got 78 votes.

    In the presidential elections of February 23, APC celebrated a victory over PDP at the same polling unit with 187 votes against 167 votes.

    As it was during last month’s presidential and national assembly elections, many top politicians failed to deliver even their polling units.

    President Muhammadu Buhari delivered his Unit 003 s in Sarkin Yara A Ward in Daura Local Government Area of the State for the APC governorship candidate Aminu Masari, with 370 votes.

    Senator Yakubu Lado-Danmarke of the PPD polled 42 votes.

    Governor Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State lost his polling unit to the PDP in the gubernatorial election.

    The All Progressives Congress candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, scored 112 votes while the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Seyi Makinde, scored 145 votes.

    A former Oyo State governor, Rasheed Ladoja won the governorship election in Polling Unit 13, Ward 10, Ibadan North Local Government Area for the PDP with 180 votes while APC received 34 votes.

    Dapo Abiodun ,the APC flag bearer in Ogun got 240 votes at his Ward 3 Unit 2, Ita Osanyin, Iperu, Ikenne Local Government Area to beat his closest rival, Adekunle Akinlade, of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), who polled 71 votes.

    A factional governorship candidate of the PDP who went into an alliance with Akinlade against Abiodun was roundly beaten  at his polling unit at Ward 5 Unit 4 Wesley Nursery and Primary School, Iperu, Ikenne.

    At the end of voting APC scored 197 votes, while the APM polled 75 votes.

    The PDP and ADC polled 6 and 2 votes respectively.

    The APC also floored former governor Ayodele Fayose at his unit at Afao Ekiti in Irepodun Ifelodun local government area of the state.

    The APC’s candidate in Irepodun/Ifelodun constituency 2, Alhaji Hakeem Jamiu, beat the Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Sunday Omosilade by scoring 168 against PDP candidate’s 26 at St David’s Primary School polling unit in Afao Ekiti.

    Omosilade, who is  Fayose’s Personal Assistant, had earlier in a letter dated March 1 and addressed to the Independent National Electoral Commission, signified his intention to withdraw from the race.

    But the INEC said it was not aware of such withdrawal, saying he should have withdrawn 45 days to the poll.

    Also, at units 15 and 003, Igbemo ward, Jamiu recorded 171 and 335 votes respectively, while PDP polled 0 in the two units.

  • Voter apathy characterises Saturday’s polls in Edo

    The Governorship and House of Assembly elections in Edo on Saturday recorded low voter turnout, in spite of the early distribution of election materials across the state.

    News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) correspondents, who monitored the exercise reports that there was widespread voter apathy in the areas visited.

    Officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and election materials were conveyed to the polling units early in the morning.

    Some of the residents, who spoke on the low turnout of voters, attributed it to the outcome of the Feb. 23 polls in the area.

    Mr Ehi Peters, a political analyst, told NAN that the apathy in most of the polling centres might not be unconnected with the results of the Presidential and National assembly elections.

    Peters said: “Our people were disappointed with the outcome of the polls, coupled with the disappointing comments by some chieftains of the major political parties in the area.

    “Many of them had boasted that the people’s votes in the field will not decide the final result.

    “In such a situation, the people woukd become disillusioned and uninterested in the entire process, like what is happening right now.”

    NAN reports that newspaper and food vendors were seen in strategic areas of Benin city, displaying their wares and soliciting patronage.

    A food vendor, Mrs Margret Yakubu, said that voter turnout was not encouraging, compared to the last elections.

    “I am just scared because I prepared a lot of food for prospective voters, who might be hungry, while waiting to cast their vote.

    Read also: PDP will record landslide victory in A’Ibom – Senator elect

    “But if the low turnout doesn’t change, I’m going to end up incurring a huge loss.

    “My prayer is that voters would come out en masse before the end of voting today, if not, today’s sales will not be anything to write home about.

    A drink seller, Mrs Agnes Ogedegbe, described the low turnout of voters as a big disappointement “because I had envisaged I would make good profit.”

    Frank Okechukwu, who sells egg roll, however, said that some of the voters might have gone to their farms because of the previous day’s rain.

    “You know our people are predominantly farmers. They may have gone to their farms to take advantage of yesterday’s rain to cultivate crops,’’ Okechukwu said.

    NAN reports that 176 candidates from 23 political parties participated in the House of Assembly election in Edo.

    It was learnt that 1.7 million voters collected their Permanent Voter Cards.

    The major political parties jostling for the 24 constituency seats, incuded the All Progressives Party, Peoples Democratic Party, Labour Party, Action Democratic Party and Advance Congress of Democrats.

    Others were Alliance for Democracy, Alliance for New Nigeria and All Democratic Peoples Movement, among others. (NAN)

  • 2019 governorship poll and state leadership

    If there is no postponement again, the governorship and Houses of Assembly polls should be taking place by now in at least 29 states. The outcome of the presidential and National Assembly polls alarmingly indicate that Nigeria, already a unitary state by every possible definition, may be heading for a one-party state. But whether at the federal or state level, particularly now at the state level, Nigeria has through decades of elections solidly entrenched poor leadership. A few states may be guiltier than the others, but overall, nearly all the states in recent years have demonstrated a lack of capacity to produce competent and secular leaders. Where a few of those leaders are competent, many others are unable to exclude religion from public life; and vice versa. In addition, many of the states have produced leaders who should properly be described as rulers, with many of them acutely lacking the talent to procure a legacy for themselves.

    The question on many lips today as the electorate troop out to cast their votes is whether Kaduna and Kano will re-elect their governors or dare to embrace change. The Northeast is almost solely responsible for the beginnings of the Boko Haram insurgency when they enacted and supervised abhorrent social and economic policies between 1999 and 2003 that pauperised their people and fed or pacified them with the fake elixirs of religion. Ignorant of the factors that predisposed Hausaland to Jihadist conquest, the Northeast, particularly Borno and Yobe, attempted to spread a veneer of sham religion on a socio-economic milieu that already left the people hungry, and rendered them uneducated and hopeless. Whirlwind follows the sowing of wind. But strangely, the rulers of the Northeast felt they could get away with their reckless and complicit handling of public policies. One or two of the outgoing governors of the region have attempted a few remedies, but their efforts have been uncoordinated and inadequate to smother the ongoing rebellion or stanch the flow of blood.

    The Northwest is virtually in full-fledged rebellion, with Zamfara quietly but bloodily becoming the epicentre. Full deployment of military and police assets in the zone has barely made a dent on a crisis that is threatening to escalate beyond its present immediate confinement. The rebellion, like in the Northeast, was triggered by poverty, alienation and misrule. And like the Northeast also, religion was boldly deployed as a tool to distract and engage the populace, with only token efforts made to find an answer to the socio-economic crisis confronting the populace. So far too, the Northwest has been unable to produce a first-rate leader of men and resources, a visionary leader capable of offering the kind of leadership that could bring a significant number of people out of poverty and misery.

    In the First and Second Republics, the Southwest used to have a reputation for producing excellent leaders. Now, such leaders are few and far between. The last two election cycles were even worse; they managed to produce third-rate leaders who couldn’t hold a candle to the worst of the worse, leaders more grandiloquent and megalomaniacal than the most comical the Second Republic ever produce. From the swampy southernmost tip of Nigeria to the humid savannah of the Middle Belt, and the erosion-plagued communities of the Southeast, Nigeria is locked in a vicious circle of producing incompetent administrators and mediocre politicians quite unfit to govern even a local government.

    It is in the midst of this crisis that the country is once again heading to the polls to elect governors and state lawmakers. No state in Nigeria has managed to emplace a vigorous and independent legislature. If voters do not resist the temptations put before them, they will once again elect misfits into their legislative houses. No one can tell whether they will do what is right today. But far worse is the likelihood of the voters electing mediocre governors. Flowing from the convincing win the president secured in some states in the North, some governorship candidates are hopeful that the electorate would overlook their failings and foibles and re-elect them. Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano State is one of a few examples that constitute a moral and political dilemma for the electorate. Accused of demanding and receiving bribes to the tune of millions of dollars from contractors, with electronic evidence deployed as proof, the governor has stonewalled. Aided by what some critics described as a conniving legislature and a downright colluding judiciary, the governor has been able to stall both a potential trial and impeachment proceedings. Even the president has waffled over the accusation, wondering what type of technology was deployed to, as it were, entrap Dr Ganduje, one of his most ardent supporters.

    Should Kano vote for him this Saturday, the electorate would have made nonsense of the anti-corruption campaign garishly embarked upon by the president at the early stages of his presidency. With the courts inexplicably putting an obstacle before the governor’s leading Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) opponent a few days to the election, Dr Ganduje seems poised to retake the State House except voters can enact a full-scale rebellion against the state’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). After having voted massively, perhaps in defiance of statistical logic, for President Muhammadu Buhari, it remains to be seen whether the electorate can truly dissociate the controversial governor from the cult-like personality of the president. If they do, they would be displaying their remarkable sophistication. If they do not, they would be reiterating their commonalty, as fellow voters in the Northwest exhibited some two weeks ago when they broke the numbers bank.

    Kaduna State is contending with a far worse dilemma than even Kano. Yet, no one can tell how they will resolve the existential crisis facing them. Together with Kano, Kaduna State has faced some of the most violent religious crisis Nigeria has ever witnessed. That religious question has been further compounded by deep and unresolved ethnic fissures. The governor, Nasir el-Rufai, is of course not the cause of a crisis that predates him. But so far, both by his lack of restraint and poor understanding of issues, not to say his absolute lack of wisdom and irritating cocksureness, the governor has managed in his first term to aggravate the multiple crises the state has been contending with for some decades.

    First, he announced that he paid off those attacking the state, implying that he was able to identify them; but rather than bring them to justice, he preferred to use taxpayers’ money to mollify the fury of the criminals. Then at every turn, he has been unable to manage the state’s religious and ethnic differences and struggles, barely managing to disguise his biases. Now, he has finally set out to prove that he could break the political convention and received wisdom of presenting a mixed candidacy of Muslims and Christians for the State House.

    Today, the state will either reinforce Mallam El-Rufai’s iconoclasm or punish him. He believes that flowing from the president’s election, his repudiation of conventional wisdom will carry the day as voters turn out to make nonsense of the state’s religious calculations. He is daring, very daring. But there is nothing to suggest that he could not in fact get away with his cold and ruthless calculation. If the electorate support his redrawing of the state’s political and behavioural map, they will have voted for the present and hope that they would not reap any whirlwind sometime in the future. Mallam El-Rufai took on the more sensible and ethical Shehu Sani, a state senator, and vanquished him. Consequently, the governor, who is never a moderate and modest man to begin with, is already feeling invincible, nay immortal. Should he carry the day, his enemies will groan in anguish for years to come.

    But whether the electorate endorse him or not, it does not detract from the fact that Mallam El-Rufai’s legacy will be controversial at best, and poor beyond description at worst. It is inconceivable that a politician who has inspired so much division, while not matching it with grand and gargantuan futuristic projects and programmes, can hope to last in the minds of the people.

    Many other states will be grappling with their own peculiar issues and troubles. How they resolve these issues, starting from the votes today, will determine how far their states can go in the coming years. Using Kano and Kaduna as examples, there is not much optimism that the 36 states as a whole can go very far. They are crawling now when they should be walking briskly, and have embraced the wrong arguments and personalities in their prolonged quest for development. They must hope that the choices they make today would not completely paralyse them or, worse, predispose them to the full-scale rebellion ravaging some states in the country.

  • Governorship Polls: How states will vote

    Come Saturday, March 9, the last phase of the 2019 general elections would be concluded with the conduct of 29 governorship and State House of Assembly elections. About 14,000 candidates will vie for 991 State House of Assembly seats. In the just concluded presidential election the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, won in 19 states, while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) triumphed in 17 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, this result may not necessarily determine the outcome of the governorship contest as local issues come into play. Also, in the week following the February 23 poll, there have been intriguing realignments in some states where the presidential contest was very close. That raises the stakes in a couple of states, with the prospect of surprises and upsets likely to unfold. In this piece, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor and Fanen Ihyongo examine the scenarios in the states that would be electing governors and project likely outcomes.

    NORTH EAST ZONE

     

    ADAMAWA STATE

    No state gives the APC leadership more headaches than Adamawa where it lost two senatorial seats contrary to the pre-election permutations. From the results of the presidential and National Assembly elections, it was obvious that the state identified with its son, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who was the presidential candidate of the PDP.

    The colour of the governorship race in the state reflects its assets and challenges including religion, ethnicity, security challenges, the political elites, money, gang-up by looters of public treasury in the past and good governance.

    More than any state in the federation, the 28 governorship candidates are drawn from different religious groups and about four women are in the race too.

    The list includes the incumbent, Governor Jibrilla Bindow; ex-Acting Governor Umaru Fintiri; a serial contender, Marcus Gundiri of SDP; Abdul-Azeez Nyako of African Democratic Congress (ADC), an Islamic cleric, Bappare Umaru of KOWA Party, who doubles as the Imam of Jamaatul Nasril Islam (JNI) Friday Mosque in Jimeta area of Yola town; a Christian cleric, Rev. Eric Theman, of Movement for the Restoration and Defence of Democracy (MRDD) among others.

    The women aiming to lead Adamawa as governor are: Lami Musa of People’s Party of Nigeria (PPN); Na’ama Bulama of Progressive People Alliance (PPA); Rukayya Audu of Action People’s Party (APP) and Elizabeth Isa of Change Advocacy Party (CAP).

    Going by performance, Governor Bindow’s achievements will make it an easy ride for APC. Unfortunately, some political leaders are angry with the governor, who is a minority, for not looting and sharing the state resources. But Bindow has upped the ante in Adamawa and his performance benchmark will create a hurdle for his successor.

    The major parties competing for space in the state are APC, PDP and SDP. The gruesome killing of a former Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh (rtd), has affected the fortunes of SDP because he was alleged to be a major sponsor of the party’s candidate.

    For Atiku, who has just lost the presidential race, he is also part of the governorship race in order to consolidate his base. His anointed candidate lost to Bindow at the APC primaries in 2015 and it took him fortunes to win Bindow to his side.

    He was instrumental to the emergence of Boni Haruna as the governor from 1999-2007 but after a cold war with ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, he lost the initiative to the ex-president who wielded incumbency influence to anoint Vice Admiral Murtala Nyako who was unceremoniously impeached due to his spat over the Boko Haram insurgency with the administration of ex-President Goodluck Jonathan.

    With a slim win of 410, 266 votes by PDP over APC’s 378, 078, the governorship contest is still open in Adamawa. President Buhari needs to pacify a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal and the younger brother of the First Lady, Dr. Modi who are leading the assault against the return of Bindow.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    BAUCHI STATE

    The state boasts of 20 governorship candidates. But the strong contenders are the APC candidate Governor Mohammed Abubakar; the PDP flagbearer, Senator Bala Mohammed, who was a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory;  a former Minister of Health, Professor Mohammed Ali Pate and Ambassador Shu’aibu Ahmed Adamu of the NNPP.

    Although all the candidates signed a peace accord on December 21, 2018, the political atmosphere in the state is tense because its gubernatorial outlook is always unpredictable despite the fact that APC won last Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections. Some members of the class which brought Governor Abubakar to power in 2015 have fallen out with him.  Pate of PRP is expected to spring a surprise if the results of the Presidential and National Assembly elections have not dampened the momentum he had gained in the past few months.

    The intervention of President Buhari, especially his reconciliatory agenda among the stakeholders has, however, stabilized APC in the state. The fortification of the party through the defections of ex-Governor Isa Yuguda; a former National Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the immediate past Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP, Senator Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu has created barriers for PDP.  This is the first time Yuguda and Mu’azu will find a common political ground and pursue the same goal.

    Being a traditional stronghold of Buhari, the governor may benefit from his political goodwill. On the whole, the odds favour APC.

    Verdict: APC

     

    TARABA STATE

    Some heavyweights are back to the governorship trenches against the incumbent state governor, Darius Ishaku (PDP). They include a former Acting governor of the state, Sani Danladi (APC), a former Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, Aisha Alhassan of the United Democratic Party (UDP), Babangida Umar of the SDP, Adamu Danbako of APGA and Danjuma Umaru – National Rescue Movement (NRM), among others.

    But it is a three-horse race between Governor Ishaku, Danladi, and Alhassan with religious, ethnic and insecurity as top considerations. The results of the presidential poll confirmed PDP as still the first choice with the opposition garnering 374, 743 as against APC’s 324, 906.

    A former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus  Danjuma, will be a big influence because he has largely determined (or handpicked)  the governor of the state since 1999. Notwithstanding his cosmopolitan outlook, Danjuma does not joke with his ethnic and religious indulgences.

    PDP may still have an edge because the APC candidate (Danladi) and Hajiya Alhassan of UDP might split Muslim votes.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    BORNO STATE

    Despite the insurgency, Borno has about 41 governorship candidates, most of whom are paperweight politicians. The key actors in the battle for Government House in Maiduguri are a former Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Prof. Babagana Zulum (the APC governorship candidate) and a former state chairman of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Alhaji Mohammed Alkali Imam.

    The PDP appears virtually dead in the state and it lost its soul when a revered ex-Governor of old Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni (1979-1983) defected to APC. Also, PDP’s abysmal performance at the Presidential and National Assembly elections has underlined its weakness.

    Other factors that have secured the state firmly for APC are the performance of the outgoing governor Kashim Shettima; the decision of APC stakeholders to sink their differences over gubernatorial primaries;  the defection of  a former national chairman of PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff to APC and the appreciation of the people of the state of Buhari  administration’s commitment to the war against the Boko Haram insurgency .

    With the paltry 71, 7888 votes earned by PDP at the presidential election, only a miracle can make it win the governorship poll. The existence of two factions in the party, led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively, has cleared the coast for an easy APC victory.

    Verdict: APC

     

    YOBE STATE

    Yobe not only has cultural affinity with Borno State, the pattern of politics in the two states is often similar. The political leaders share the same views and their voting trend has been alike in the First, Second, Third and Fourth Republics. The March 9 poll is thus likely to be a mere coronation of the APC candidate, Mai Mala Buni, who is the outgoing National Secretary of the party.

    In spite of a change of PDP candidate, the emergence of Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagum as the new standard bearer of the opposition has not improved the fortunes of the party. The most vocal PDP member in the state, Buba Galadima, could not even deliver his polling unit during the presidential and National Assembly elections. APC received 750 votes to PDP’s two votes there. It is certainly a one-horse race in Yobe State.

    Verdict: APC

     

    GOMBE STATE

    The clean sweep of the presidential and National Assembly elections by the APC showed that ex-Governor Danjuma Goje has bounced back as the godfather of politics in the state.

    The defeat of incumbent Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo in the senatorial election will weigh heavily on the fortunes of the PDP. Saidu Ahmed Alkali of the ruling APC polled 152,551 votes against Dankwambo’s 88,016 votes to win the Gombe North District seat.

    But the governorship poll will determine whether or not Dankwambo has finally lost relevance in the state. The governor had seized power in 2011 and virtually overshadowed Goje. The two leaders have a date with history on March 9.

    While Goje is sticking to Inuwa Yahaya (an Hausa from Gombe Central) as APC governorship candidate, PDP and Dankwambo have opted for ex-Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Senator Bayero Nafada, who is a Fulani from Gombe North.

    In 2015, Goje fielded the same Yahaya (his honest ex-Commissioner for Finance) as the governorship candidate of APC but he lost the battle because of intra-party crisis in which Nafada was the arrowhead of the revolt.

    For the governorship race, ethnic colouration and the need for power shift might determine which of the APC or PDP will win the race to the Government House. In the past 16 years, Goje (from Gombe Central District) and Dankwambo (from Gombe North Senatorial District) have ruled the state and there is agitation to allow power to shift to another zone.

    The PDP has a trust hurdle to cross following the breaking of a pledge by Dankwambo to concede the governorship ticket to Gombe South. The PDP on October 3, 2018 lost Sardauna Gombe, Alhaji Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna who defected from PDP to APC. Gwamna’s parting of ways with PDP has tightened the noose on PDP.

    Verdict: APC

     

    NORTH CENTRAL ZONE

     

    BENUE STATE

    Contrary to predictions, the race appears tighter in Benue State going by the tally of the presidential poll in which PDP garnered 356, 817 votes as against the APC’s  347, 668. With a difference of about 9, 149 votes the two leading governorship candidates, Governor Samuel Ortom (PDP) and Emmanuel Jime (APC) will have to work extra hard to win the March 9 poll.

    Although the farmers-herders clashes of 2018 will influence the poll in Benue, the debate is also shifting to issues like performance, outstanding salary arrears and allowances, the management of bailout funds and London-Paris Club refunds, recent sack of some local government chairmen, among others.

    For Ortom, who boasted that he has retired ex-Governor George Akume, he has a two-in-one governorship battle to wage. He is confronting Jime and Akume at the same time. If Ortom gets re-election ticket, he will go down in history as a pacesetter and a giant killer. Otherwise, if he goes to sleep with the slim margin of 9, 149 votes, it may prove fatal especially if Chief Barnabas Gemade (Benue North-East) and ex-Deputy Governor, Stephen Lawani, Mike Onoja, Usman Abubakar, and other Idoma leaders pull resources together.

    The results of the senatorial election in Benue South showed that there could be an upset during the governorship poll if there is a realignment of forces. The results were Abba Moro of the PDP (85,162 votes);   Lawani of the APC (47,972 votes); Mike Onoja of SDP (29,901 votes) and Usman Abubakar of APDA (5,504 votes).

    Since Ortom and Jime are Tiv, the vote deciders might be the Idoma. This is why Ortom is over relying on a former President of the Senate, David Mark, ex-Minister of Interior, Senator-elect Abba Moro and other Idoma leaders.

    Buhari is not a candidate in this election, so attention will be firmly focused on local issues like the backlog of salaries owed by the state governorship. There are also questions as to the commitment of former governor Gabriel Suswam to the cause of re-electing Ortom. Given the complex interplay of local factors enumerated above, the race for the governor’s seat in Benue remains too close to call.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    KWARA STATE

    The emergence of the “O To Ge” (Enough is Enough in Yoruba) revolution in Kwara State which led to the fall of Senate President, Bukola Saraki, the PDP and all its candidates during the presidential and National Assembly elections, has dimmed the hope of the party currently ruling in Kwara State.

    The new protest vote culture in the state was actually targeted at a change of power at the state level. The March 9 poll is expected to complete the revolution when Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq (APC) and Abdulrazaq Atunwa of the PDP face the electorate. The state is in the mood to complete the coronation of the APC candidate.

    What will compound the PDP’s woes is the decision of some loyalists of Saraki to vote against his candidate (Atunwa) because of the reckless manner in which he was imposed on them. There were better candidates than Atunwa but the Senate President insisted on having his way.

    The factors that will interplay include the poor/ woeful performance of PDP and its governor;  dilapidated infrastructure in the state; non-payment of outstanding salaries of local government workers, lecturers of state-owned tertiary institutions and  street sweepers; the defection of bigwigs and members of Saraki dynasty from PDP to APC;  reneging on commitment to power shift to Kwara North; the neglect of Kwara South;  the division in Ilorin Emirate occasioned by the APC governorship candidature of Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq and the challenge which the choice of PDP governorship candidate Atunwa has provoked.

    Verdict: APC

     

    NIGER STATE

    Ahead voting in less than a week, no governor is more upbeat than Abubakar Sani Bello of Niger State, who is a son-in-law to a former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar. He has been over the moon because APC won the presidential and National Assembly polls in the state where President Buhari has large cult following.

    Bello is about 90 percent sure of returning because he enjoys the confidence of the political kingmakers in the state. Apart from being from a wealthy family (which owns a minority stake in MTN and Amni International Petroleum Development Co., an oil exploration company with a 50% interest in the Okoro Setu oil field), the father of the governor, Col. Sani Bello (retired) is a member of the military elite dictating the pace in Niger State.

    The governor will benefit from the goodwill of his father, the benevolence of his in-laws and adherence to the power rotation formula in the state, irrespective of whether a governor has performed or not

    Coming as he does from Zone C, there is an unwritten agreement that any zone in power must complete its two terms in office.

    Notwithstanding, the governor’s main challenger is Umar Nasko of the PDP, whom he defeated in 2015. The PDP candidate is also a son to Major General Muhammad Gado Nasko, who was the military governor of Sokoto State between 1978 and 1979.

    Unlike in 2015, Nasko, who was a former Chief of Staff to ex-Governor Babangida Aliyu, does not have the war chest to confront the incumbent governor.

    Barring seismic political changes, APC is likely to retain the state.

    Verdict: APC

     

    NASARAWA STATE

    For the first time since 1999, gubernatorial power has been mutually ceded to Nasarawa South Senatorial District in the state by most of the political parties at the prompting of Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura who made the concession to beat the opposition to its game.

    The governorship slot had rotated between Nasarawa West and Nasarawa South and any slip will be too costly for APC. Though Al-Makura has anointed Abdullahi Sule ( ex-Group Managing Director of  Dangote Sugar Refinery) as APC governorship candidate, the option is left for the people of Nasarawa North to accept him or go for either the PDP candidate, David Ombugadu or APGA candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku, who is fast becoming a serial governorship contestant.

    Unless it is well managed, the voting pattern in the state may slide into the religious divide because the Muslims are queuing behind the APC candidate and the Christians are split over Ombugadu (PDP) and Maku (APGA). The religious tone might compound the ethnic cleavages in the state.

    The private sector credentials of Sule give APC a comfortable edge. And with the victory of the APC during the National Assembly elections, things are adding up for

    Verdict: APC

     

    PLATEAU STATE

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has already cleared 21 governorship candidates in Plateau State and 279 candidates for the 24 seats in the State House of Assembly. Some of the candidates are Governor Simon Lalong (APC); Lt.-Gen. Jeremiah Useni (PDP); Mr. Godfrey Miri (SDP); Gen. John Temlong (ADP); Dr. Haruna Dabin, a former PDP chairman in the state, but now the candidate of PPC; Mr Timothy Parlong (APGA); Mr. Bitrus Musa (ADC); Alex Ladan (ANN) and Mr. John Bigwan (GPN) among others.

    The political climate in Plateau is similar to its twin sister, Benue State but Lalong’s leadership qualities have reunited and restored peace to the state. The main issue for the February poll is how to curtail the security challenge in the state. The PDP’s antidote is the choice of the 75-year old Lt. Gen. Useni, who was a former Minister of FCT under the late military Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha.

    For Lalong, age is on his side and his generation will be more preferable than the septuagenarian Useni.

    Another issue is religion which ex-Governor Jonah Jang has exploited in the past to sustain PDP. But the leading candidates Lalong and Useni are Christians – which takes the sting out of this factor.

    The absence of imprisoned ex-Governor Joshua Dariye has created a setback for APC, but the governor has been able to accommodate his structure in the scheme of things. It would be a straight fight between Lalong and Useni, irrespective of what transpired in the state during the February 23 polls.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    NORTH WEST ZONE

     

    KANO STATE

    Ordinarily with the allegation of millions of dollars bribery against Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC, the contest ought to be over integrity between him and his PDP rival Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf.

    But the hostility of Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso against President Buhari and his defection from APC to PDP have changed the political narrative in the state to the border line between loyalty and treachery. This is the second time Kano State will go through such experience.

    During the 1983 general elections, the PRP picked the late Aliyu Sabo Bakin Zuwo, who had no formal education as its governorship candidate against the late Governor Abubakar Rimi of the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) who ran an “all graduate” State Executive Council. But Zuwo, rated as a semi-literate despite sponsoring more bills in the Senate in the Second Republic, defeated Rimi because of his undiluted loyalty to the leader of PRP, the late Mallam Aminu Kano.

    Prior to the February 23 poll, the PDP was actually bubbling with much hope that it would win Kano State or give APC a good fight. The defeat of the party at the presidential and National Assembly elections has dimmed the chances of the opposition on March 9.

    The demoralizing outcome of the first stage of the elections has left the party to scavenge to pick up the pieces. If PDP has any problem in the state, it has to do with the way it conducted its governorship primaries that led to the anointing of Yusuf by Kwankwaso. The imposition weakened and depleted the party.

    The mass movement of ex-Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and his supporters from PDP to APC was the last straw that broke the camel’s back. Others who have deserted PDP are Prof. Hafiz Abubakar, a former deputy governor to Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, a former Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority,  Aminu Dabo; the immediate past  National Treasurer of PDP, Bala Mohammed Gwagwarwa; Security Adviser to Kwankwaso, Gen. Danjuma Dambazzau (rtd); Senator Isa Zarewa; and Mu’azu Magaji Dan Sarauniya, who was a former Senior Special Assistant to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan on SURE-P.

    APC may retain the state because of the Buhari factor: since 2003 he has never lost an electoral contest in the state. There is also the influx of new influential defectors, and the incumbency factor of Governor Ganduje who is more popular among the masses and Islamic clerics in Kano.

    Verdict: APC

     

    ZAMFARA STATE

    With the court clearance, the scramble for governorship in Zamfara State is by the PDP candidate, Alhaji Bello Mohammed Matawale, the candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Abdullahi Sani Shinkafi and the APC candidate who the court will have to determine. There are two candidates in APC namely, the popular Dauda Lawal (a former Executive Director of First Bank) and Alhaji Mukhtar Shehu Idris.

    It is hoped that the reconciliatory process initiated by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will assist Zamfara APC to get its act together. Whatever it is, APC will surely win Zamfara governorship poll because PDP has a very weak candidate.

    Verdict: APC

     

    KATSINA STATE

    For the return of Governor Aminu Bello Masari, Katsina State can be taken for granted by the APC because he will benefit from the tremendous goodwill of President Buhari.

    The PDP is bound to be affected by the bandwagon effect of February 23, 2019 presidential and National Assembly elections in which it lost with a difference of  924, 077 votes. The APC political hurricane is ravaging Katsina.

    Although ex-Governor Ibrahim Shema and the PDP governorship candidate, Garba Yakubu Lado, are trying to shake the APC, they cannot go far.

    Verdict: APC

     

    SOKOTO STATE

    Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is the last of the political titans, who defected from PDP to APC, whose fate is yet to be determined. Ex-VP Abubakar lost the presidency; Senate President, Bukola Saraki has fallen by the wayside, Rabiu Kwankwaso has lost the grip on Kano and Yakubu Dogara is no longer returning as the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

    The Sokoto State governor has a date with history on March 9 because the gubernatorial race will define his political future especially whether or not he will keep afloat or slide into oblivion. He has lost two battles before the governorship contest including the loss of the PDP presidential ticket and the victory of the APC at the presidential poll and the clearing of three senatorial seats in the state by the APC

    His main challenger is actually not his erstwhile deputy, Alhaji Ahmad Aliyu, but his estranged godfather, ex-Governor Aliyu Wammako. From the pulse during the campaign, Wammako’s political treasure is his closeness to the masses.

    Beside his solid structure, some of those with Wammako are ex-ministers, lawmakers and APC leaders like Umar Nagwari Tambuwal, Muhammed Maigari Dingyadi, Yusuf Suleiman, Abubakar Shehu Wurno, Jibril Gada, among others. His main asset, however, is his closeness to the grassroots.

    Tambuwal has the backing of some forces in the Caliphate, ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, Mukhtar Shagari and a few other political leaders.

    So far, the calculations are not looking rosy for Tambuwal whose performance had been very poor. He is a laggard compared to the records of Wammako and ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa.

    Verdict: APC

     

    KEBBI STATE

    The sterling performance of Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State in the last three and a half years and his ability to keep APC united, have made Kebbi a no-go area for PDP. He has brought his experience in the private sector to bear in managing the economy of the state. His focus on agriculture has led to massive employment and rice boom. With the backing of the respected ex-Governor of the state, Senator Adamu Aliero and Bagudu’s ability to win more souls into APC, especially ex-Governor Saidu Dakingari and his deputy, Ibrahim Aliyu, PDP is already stripped naked in Kebbi State.

    Verdict: APC

     

    KADUNA STATE

    Despite the fact that the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly elections in Kaduna State was in favour of the APC in Kaduna State, it might be an uphill task for Governor Nasir el-Rufai who is seeking a second term ticket. He has a serious match in the candidate of the PDP, Mallam Isa Ashiru Kudan. Already, two candidates, Polycarp Gankon of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and Ezekiel Habila of the Liberation Movement (LM), have withdrawn for Ashiru.

    The colour of politics in the state will be determined by security challenge, performance, the prolonged Hausa-Fulani/Southern Kaduna cat and mouse relationship, religious factor (especially mutual suspicion by Muslims and Christians), the rising Shiite clan and its attendant grave security implications and distrust among political elite.

    In the midst of these daunting factors, el-Rufai became audaciously adventurous by picking Hadiza Balarabe ( a fellow Muslim) as his running mate. Justifying the choice of Hadiza, the governor said: “Muslim-Muslim ticket is not a religious ticket but a competent and performance ticket.” He had also argued the even if he picked the Pope as his running mate, the people of Southern Kaduna, would not vote for him. It is a slippery decision which may redefine politics in the state.

    But before the March 9 poll, el-Rufai has lost a leg of the tripod which can earn him votes. For wielding ethno-religious cards, APC could lose Kaduna South Senatorial District as it did on February 23 during the presidential and National Assembly polls.

    A political experimenter, el-Rufai’s greatest asset is the enthronement of new governance modules which have reduced wastes in government. Apart from pruning the size of his cabinet, he has cut frivolous expenses and his performance is appreciable. But his garrulous, uncompromising and dictatorial leadership style at a point alienated him from the masses.

    El-Rufai’s other battle is his fight with political elite in the state. He is a victim of his own attempt to uproot the status quo. There are no old politicians in Kaduna State who are with him.  Members of the old brigade who were with him in 2015 like Suleiman Hunkuyi, Isa Ashiru,  Yaro Makama, and Ambassador Sule Buba are now in PDP. These old hands have teamed up with ex-Vice President Namadi Sambo, a former National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, and ex-Governor Ramalan Yero.

    The governor has, however, bred a new generation of young politicians who are managing to warm their hearts into the people of the state. If he succeeds in displacing the old brigade from power next month, he would have created a political record in the state.

    But for the Buhari factor, el-Rufai may fail in his second term bid. It is also important to note that the president is not on the ballot on March 9 and local issues would determine the outcome. The state is a flashpoint to watch.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    JIGAWA STATE

    About 19 candidates are jostling for the governorship seat in Jigawa State. Among them are the incumbent Governor Abubakar Badaru, recurring candidate of PDP, Aminu Ringim, Bashir Adamu (SDP), Sanusi Gumel (Peoples Democratic Movement), Abbas Mujaddad of ANN and others.

    What is at stake in Jigawa State is a struggle for the soul of the state by ex- Governor Sule Lamido and Governor Badaru whose rice production revolution has empowered many citizens of the state. His problems arise from his alienation of the political elite and some royal fathers who are not enjoying as much largesse as they used to do in the past.

    For Lamido, the loss of PDP to APC in 2015 was a disaster and he is determined to regain the control of the state. His Achilles Heel, however, is the imposition of Ringim as the party’s governorship candidate – a development which angered some PDP stalwarts.

    The success of the APC at the National Assembly polls has deflated PDP in Jigawa such that the opposition is already threatening to boycott the governorship and State House of Assembly elections unless the State Commissioner of Police, Bala Senchi, is redeployed.

    Verdict: APC

     

    SOUTHEAST ZONE

     

    ENUGU STATE

    In Enugu State, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, is best positioned to win in this week’s governorship election. A PDP stronghold, the party won last week’s Presidential and all the National Assembly elections in the state.

    Independent National Electoral Commission State Collation Officer, Prof. Joseph Ahaneku, who is the Vice Chancellor, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, announced that the party won in the 17 local government areas of the state.

    Out of the 421,014 valid votes in the state, PDP scored 355,553 votes against 54,423 votes polled by the All Progressives Congress in the state. 30,049 votes were declared invalid.

    The party’s performance in the elections confirmed prediction that except something extra ordinary happens between now and Saturday, Governor Ugwuanyi will most likely to record a landslide victory in the governorship election. Besides flying the flag of the party that has remained most acceptable in the state, the governor’s performance in the last four years, which his admirers described as superlative, plus his friendly disposition with all, including politicians in the opposition, will boost his chances.

    Since the return of democracy in 1999, Enugu has remained a PDP state. In 2015, for example, PDP garnered 553,003 out of the total 573,173 viable votes cast in that year’s presidential election, leaving the other 13 political parties that contested that election to share the remaining 20,170 votes.

    Although APC in the state now boasts of having top political leaders like former Governor Sullivan Chime, former Senate President Ken Nnamani and an influential governorship candidate, in the person of Senator Ayogu Eze, it seems only practical to predict that the party, if it works even harder, may win some state constituencies in this Saturday’s state elections, unlike what happened last weekend when it lost all the elections in the Presidential and National Assembly Elections to PDP. If the party wins some State House of Assembly Elections, it will, in a way help to boost the strength of the party in Enugu State’s local politics in the next four years.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    ABIA STATE

    Abia State has been another PDP stronghold since 1999. But as we reported earlier, under-performance or lack of quality dividends of democracy in the state has resulted to outcry from across the state for far reaching changes.

    Although Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of PDP in last week’s presidential election, won the state, scoring 219,698 as against APC’s 85,058, it is predicted that in the governorship election, this feeling of poor performance will ultimately affect the way the people will vote in the forthcoming Governorship and State House of Assembly Election.

    As we hinted in our earlier reports, most stakeholders in the state are furious to note that Abia, though an oil-producing state, is today one of the least developed in the country, physical infrastructure wise, a development that has resulted in aggressive agitation for change of leadership.

    The feeling that the state needed socio-political change preceded 2015 elections. Then, majority of voters simply stayed away during Election Day. The records showed that the state recorded high level political apathy that year. Our investigation shows that this attitude has changed tremendously. In all the 17 local government areas of the state, campaigns have been comparatively more passionate and determined. It is being alleged that the renewed interest is a result of well-coordinated schemes to put Abia on a new path.

    The result of this new disposition has started to manifest, at least considering the outcome of last week’s Presidential and National Assembly Elections. It could be said today that in addition to PDP, the support base of two other political parties; the All Progressives Congress (APC), led by former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu, now Senator-elect and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), led by Dr. Alex Otti, its governorship candidate, have become very significant.

    As the state prepares for the governorship and State Assembly elections, even the ruling PDP cannot deny the evident pressure occasioned by the emerging strength of the opposition. The question in most observers’ lips is will PDP’s candidate, Governor Okezie Ikpeazu enjoy the same ease his PDP predecessors enjoyed in previous elections?

    Before now, PDP flagbearers always took it for granted that they would be given the mandate. It seems so much has changed in Abia. Take what happened in Abia North Senatorial Zone for example in last weekend’s elections, where APC candidate defeated the incumbent PDP Senator with ease. If such a development is repeated during the governorship election, the incumbent governor, who is the PDP governorship candidate, may need to work harder to be reelected.

    Our investigation shows that unlike presidential election, where the obvious popularity of Peter Obi in particular and the relative acceptability of Atiku in the state, favoured PDP, the governorship may be a direct assessment between the popularity and acceptability of the incumbent governor Ikpeazu and the leading figures in APGA and APC..

    We gathered that APGA’s candidate, Dr. Alex Otti, enjoys high popularity in the state, same as APC’s governorship candidate, Uche Ogah. During the 2015 governorship election, both Otti and Ogah played very important roles. It would be recalled that Ogah and Governor Ikpeazu contested PDP primaries. The contest dragged to the post elect judicial battle, where, at a stage, the court ruled that Ogah was the rightful candidate of PDP who was actually given the mandate to govern. It took an appeal to overrule that judgment and allow Ikpeazu to assume the mandate. The mass jubilation amongst the youths across the state when Ogah was temporarily named the governor-elect four years ago gives credence to his popularity. As for Otti, who also flew the ticket of APGA, his wide acceptability in Abia is well known both by his supporters and his opponents.

    These confirm the view that the forthcoming governorship election will be a hot contest. Insiders said Otti’s grassroots campaign ahead of this contest is even more effective than what he did in 2015. Yet, in 2015, majority of the insider observers still argue that he actually won the election, alleging that his victory was robbed by the PDP government. Sources said Otti and his party, APGA is even more positioned now to win the governorship in Abia.

    Also, it is believed that APC can no longer be taken for granted in Abia today. It would be recalled that even in 2015, when the party did not have some political heavyweights it parades today, it came second in the state during the presidential election when it got 13,394 valid votes. So, the permutation today is that the governorship race will be a three-horse race. This is because aside the power of incumbency which Ikpeazu’s PDP will obviously enjoy, the governor would be contesting against APGA’s Otti and APC’s Ogah, two influential politicians whose parties have also improved significantly in Abia.

    The issue therefore is to see how far Ikpeazu would be able to utilize his power of incumbency given that, unlike what has been happening in Abia, his party, the PDP, may not get any undue support from the Federal Government agencies to win the election. However, against great odds, we report that, PDP is likely to win the governorship election primarily because of the incumbency factor otherwise, APGA’s Otti stands a better chance, going by the level of love and support he enjoys across the length and breadth of the state.

    Also, considering the victory it recorded in Orji Uzor Kalu’s Abia North Senatorial District, APC seems set to with many House of Assembly seats from the district and from Ohuhu area of Abia Central and some Abia South Senatorial area, Governor Okezie Ikpeazu area. This shows that even if PDP succeeds in winning the governorship, the next Abia State House of Assembly will no longer be an all PDP affair.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    IMO STATE

    This week’s suspension of Governor Rochas Okorocha from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the results of the Presidential and National Assembly Elections in Imo State, have further shown that the power game between Okorocha and his estranged former political associates in APC in Imo is poised to shape how the people will vote in the state.

    As the only Southeast state currently under the leadership of an All Progressives Congress-led government, one would have expected the ruling party, to win the governorship election with ease. But following the intricate power struggle amongst its leaders, there is the fear that except the current leaders of the party works harder, APC may even lose this governorship race.

    Sources blamed this possibility on the sustained criticism of the leadership style of Governor Rochas Okorocha, a development that was worsened by the fallout of the governorship primaries’ disagreements which led to a major division between Okorocha and the leadership of the ruling party, APC, over the choice of the governorship candidate. While Okorocha had pushed for Uche Nwosu as the party’s candidate, the party finally chose Senator Hope Uzodinma with the Deputy Governor, Prince Eze Madumere, as his running mate.

    For APC, the implication of this development is that going into the governorship race as a divided political family, may prove to be a major disadvantage. Until this week’s suspension of Okorocha, the outgoing governor has remained a member of the party, flying one of its three senatorial flags, notwithstanding the fact that he was already working against the governorship candidate of the party. Many observers, including APC’s governorship candidate, Senator Hope Uzodinma, had cried out that this awkward situation may affect the party negatively. Ironically, the party did not do anything to the development until this week when it suspended the governor less than two weeks to the crucial election.

    Besides the fact that Okorocha, as the incumbent governor, will now most likely give all his support to Uche Nwosu of Action Alliance (AA), it remains to be seen how APC leadership in the state would be able to manage this delicate situation before this week’s Saturday in order to retain the state without Okorocha.

    Incidentally, the uncertainty is not limited to APC. The other leading party, the PDP, can no longer be described as being very strong in Imo as it was in 2015. However, PDP’s governorship candidate, former Deputy Speaker of House of Representatives, Hon. Emeka Ihedioha, seems to enjoy the highest popularity ratio than any of the other candidates. For him, therefore, he stands a good chance of reaping from the APC power crisis, all things being equal.

    More than what happened during the Presidential and NASS Elections, APC and PDP would have to fight hard to win the governorship election.

    Notwithstanding the sentiment that Uche Nwosu, the candidate of Action Alliance, was foisted on the people by outgoing governor Okorocha, the youthful candidate is another important candidate to watch in this election. But insiders said many voters, meaning to get at Okorocha are likely to vote against him in the election. It remains however to see how far this likely reaction will affect his performance in the election. His campaign was probably the most financed and therefore very deep into the grassroots.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    EBONYI STATE

    Ebonyi State has remained a PDP state since 1999 and there is no definitive factor that suggests there would be a change in this year’s governorship election. During last week’s Presidential and NASS elections, the party won easily in the state as PDP garnered 258,573 votes while APC’s candidate got only 90,726 votes.

    Before the presidential election, there were speculations that Governor Dave Umahi, who has some personal family relationship with APC’s President Muhammadu Buhari, may work against his party’s candidate, Atiku, in favour of Buhari. That did not happen, a confirmation that PDP in Ebonyi State remains united and strong.

    It would be recalled that out of the 363,888 valid votes cast in the state in 2015, PDP, in collaboration with APGA, harvested a whopping 323,653 votes, leaving only 19,518 for APC, which came second.

    Following the clarification mid last year that the argument over positions between old members and new members did not succeed in dividing the party in the state, it seems Governor Dave Umahi, will be contesting on a united platform with added advantage of incumbency factor.

    Besides, investigation confirms that most of the people in Ebonyi are happy with the performance of Umahi, who one of them, Nkama Oka, described as “a true engineer, opening up the hinterlands.”

    This apart, there is the feeling that PDP stands a great chance because APC in the state may not have improved so much as to expect any tangible difference in its 2015 performance. It would be recalled that although it came second in 2015, the party, led in the state by Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, the Minister of Science and Technology, got only19, 518 votes.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE

     

    RIVERS STATE

    Next Saturday’s governorship and State Assembly election in Rivers State is a walk in the park for the PDP as it will be contesting in a one sided election that will not be featuring its main rival, the APC. The opposition party has been kept out of the race by a Supreme Court judgement that confirmed INEC’s position that it failed to conduct acceptable primary election within the stipulated time.

    To further smoothen the journey to re-election for Governor Nyesom Wike and his party, a Federal High Court sitting in Port Harcourt and presided over by Justice E.A. Obile, has sacked the governorship candidate for Accord Party, Chief Dumo Lulu-Briggs. Briggs, observers say, has been seen as the only candidate remaining in the race that can put up some challenge, albeit minute, to the PDP.

    He was sacked on the grounds that he was not the authentic candidate for the party. Dumo Lulu-Briggs was therefore replaced with Mr. Precious Baridoo, who was said to have won the governorship ticket of the party at the party’s primary elections. Justice Obile in his judgement said that as at the time of the party’s primaries, Lulu- Briggs was still a chieftain of the APC.

    Rivers State, which started out in 1999 as a PDP state became a major APC state under the then governor Rotimi Amaechi who governed it for eight years. However, Amaechi’s erstwhile political godson, Nyesom Wike’s emergence as the state governor, on the ticket of PDP, not only returned the state to PDP but marked the beginning of an intriguing political rivalry that has held the breathe of Nigerians.

    Largely because Amaechi, the current Minister of Transportation is also the Director-General of Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential re-election campaign, the expectation, until the court nailed APC in the state, was high that he ought to ensure APC’s victory during the general election. Both because of the high offices he currently occupies and the fact that it has become a personal battle between him and his former ally, Wike.

    Ironically, the same pressure was on Wike to deliver Rivers to PDP. It would be recalled that Wike enjoyed unalloyed support of the former first family, the Jonathans, when he contested for the office of the governor of the state against the endorsement of Amaechi. The 2019 elections would have been an opportunity for Wike and Amaechi to test their political strength again, but the Supreme Court foiled that. As it stands, PDP is set to claim the state once again.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    DELTA STATE

    True to many predictions, Delta State voted for the PDP and its candidates during the Presidential and National Assembly elections. But for Senator Omo-Agege and a handful of House of Representatives candidates who won for the APC, it would have been an all PDP affair. The state has remained a PDP state since 1999. Given that the party has continued to grow under the leadership of Governor Arthur Ifeanyi Okowa, there is likelihood that it would still win this year’s governorship election.

    It would be recalled that out of the 1,267,773 valid votes cast in the state during the 2015 presidential election, PDP got 1,211,405 votes, while APC got 48,910 votes. Looking at this figure, one would ordinarily write off any party contesting with the ruling party, PDP, in Delta. And last week, the party won in 23 local government areas out of 25 in the state in the presidential race.

    Overall, the PDP polled 594,068 votes across the 25 local government, while All Progressives Congress scored 221,292 votes. PDP won the election in Aniocha South, Aniocha North, Oshimili South, Oshimili North, Ika South, Ika North-East, Burutu, Sapele, Ughelli South, Okpe, Warri South, Warri South West, Warri North and Udu. The other areas where the PDP also won are Ethiope West, Bomadi, Uvwie, Isoko North, Isoko South, Ndokwa East, Ndokwa West, Burutu and Patani.

    The APC, he said, won in Ethiope East and Ughelli North. Before now, so much happened in the politics of the state, especially within the opposition APC, that made observers believe the APC may spring surprises. But not even the defection of the former governor of the state, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, to APC last year, then considered a major plus for the party, could wrought much magic. Uduaghan lost his senatorial bid.

    Also, the disagreement in the APC during the run-up to the primaries may still affect the performance of the party in the forthcoming election. It would be recalled that the faction led by Prophet Jones Erue and loyal to Senator Ovie Omo-Agege and Chief Great Ogboru had openly opposed direct primaries while the other APC faction in the state loyal to Olorogun Otega Emerhor and Chief Hyacinth Enuha threw its weight behind the state and presidential direct primaries in the state.

    It is also clear that apart from influential politicians like Okowa, Uduaghan, Great Ogboru, Omo-Agege and Otega Emerhor, the other top politicians that will influence the result of the election in the state include traditional political leaders in the state like former governor James Ibori and many big-wigs within his political family. Many of these, observers say, are sympathetic to the ruling PDP.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    CROSS RIVER STATE

    In Cross River State, the PDP looks good to repeat its 2015 landslide victory in the state in spite of some improvement in the visibility of the opposition APC after the last general election. This, pundits said, is due to two major reasons. First, the APC is currently divided into two factions that even produced two governorship aspirants, namely Usani Usani Uguru (a serving Minister) and John Enoh.

    The two factions have failed to reach a peaceful accord in spite of several efforts by party leaders like ex-Governor Clement Ebri and Chief Edem Duke, as well as the national leadership of the party. Instead, the party remained fictionalised and analysts insist this is hurting its chances at the ongoing general elections. This was obvious with the result of the Presidential and National Assembly polls. No doubt, the forthcoming election will be affected by this too.

    Secondly, Governor Ben Ayade and his predecessor, Liyel Imoke, appear to still have their firm grips on the politics of the state. The harmonious relationship between the duo, in spite of insinuations that they have fallen apart, helped the ruling PDP to wax stronger after the last election. Across the state, the governor is also adjudged as having done well. So, PDP looks good to get the votes.

    Had the crisis within the APC been resolved long enough before the guber polls, the party may have fared better than it will do now that it still remains divided. But even at that, it is doubtful if that would have helped it to upstage the ruling PDP. At best, the APC may again come a distant second in the state in the next election.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    AKWA IBOM STATE

    The outcome of the contest between Buhari and Atiku has changed the permutations of many observers of the politics of the state. Not a few had thought the APC will put up a strong fight for votes in Akwa Ibom state largely on the strength of the defection of former Governor Godswill Akpabio from the PDP to the APC. But the result of the presidential election proved otherwise. To further prove many pundits wrong, Akpabio lost his re-election bid in the senatorial race.

    Thus, the political narrative in the state has been changed as we go into the next election which is more local in context. The APC will be going into the election as the underdog while the PDP, having confirmed its strong hold on the politics of the state, will be enjoying rave review from observers. No doubt, Akpabio’s loss will also have a devastating effect on the morale of APC’s foot-soldiers across the state and this can affect the party’s performance at the polls.

    The PDP looks good to claim this state in the governorship and State Assembly Elections, but it is still possible for the APC to put up a good fight in some parts of the state. The political division between Akpabio and Governor Udom Gabriel Emmanuel will still play out in Saturday’s elections. It is very likely that APC will clinch some seats, especially in Akpabio’s senatorial district of Akwa-Ibom Northwest.

    Not minding Akpabio’s unexpected defeat, the APC will be relying on the former governor’s political machinery across the state, aided by the political influence of other APC chieftains like Umanah Umanah, Nsima Ekere (a former deputy governor), John Akpan Udoedehe, Don Etiebet, Ime Umana, Group Capt. Sam Ewang (Rtd), among others, to remedy its previous unpleasant outing.

    According to very reliable political permutations, the APC will still contest for the votes of the people of Akwa-Ibom South Senatorial District pretty well. Both Governor Udom Emmanuel and Nsima Ekere, the APC candidate, hail from there. The people will obviously be divided in their choice.  Although Akon Eyakenyi of PDP polled 122,412 votes, to defeat Senator Nelson Effiong of APC who polled 44,053 votes in the senatorial race, pundits say the opposition party can still pull strings on Saturday.

    It was also gathered that the desire of the people to take advantage of an opportunity for their zone to enjoy the governorship slot much longer, provided by the candidacy of Ekere, may somehow work in favour of the APC. “There are talks that voting Ekere may give Eket the chance to spend 12 years instead of eight years in office as governor. If this informs the people’s voting behavior on Election Day, PDP may be in trouble in Governor Emmanuel’s own backyard,” an analyst said.

    For Governor Emmanuel and the PDP, pundits say their major strength lies in the power of incumbency and the ability to showcase the achievements of the current administration to the people of the state. Not a few have claimed the victory of the PDP in the state during the Presidential and National Assembly polls is informed by the people’s satisfaction with the current administration. This will surely work in favour of the party again next weekend.

    Governor Emmanuel and his party say they have met the yearnings of the people. But the APC in the state insists that with N6.85 billion annual Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and N143. 6 billion from the Federation Account, not forgetting extra-statutory intervention funds like Ecological funds, Paris Club Loan refunds, etc., the current administration in the state has not done much to better the lot of the people.

    Akwa Ibom has 31 local government areas. While Eket, where both Emmanuel and Ekere hail from, has 12 local government areas, Akpabio’s Ikot Ekpene boasts of 10 council areas. The remaining nine are found in Uyo District where former Governor Victor Attah and Umanah hail from. At the last count, there are 1,837, 767 registered voters in the three senatorial districts of the state.

    The Northeastern Senatorial District is one place where both APC and PDP should slug it out. With Umanah supporting Ekere, and Uyo being the seat of government and Emmanuel having many of his people resident there. While Umanah’s popularity in Uyo will aid APC, PDP should benefit from the votes of government functionaries and their people.

    Obong Bassey Albert Akpan of the PDP has emerged the winner of the 2019 Senatorial race with 147,731 votes to beat his opponent Bassey Etim of the APC, who scored 60,930.

    All in all, the PDP appears the most favored to win the governorship seat and majority of the state assembly seats in the state on Saturday, while the APC may have to make do with a few assembly seats.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    SOUTHWEST ZONE

     

    OGUN STATE

    Though the APC won the presidential election in Ogun State with 281, 762 votes to PDP’s 194, 655 and also pocketed the three senatorial seats in the state, pundits insist it is not comfortable to say the ruling party will retain the governorship seat of the state easily.

    Largely responsible for this is the internal crisis within the party that has seen Governor Ibikunle Amosun throwing his weight behind Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as his preferred governorship candidate.

    Aside the above, the contest on Saturday will certainly not be a straight forward one. Unlike in the past when the state’s unwritten political zoning agreement played a role in determining the emergence of the candidates of the leading parties, powerful political gladiators from all the four zones of the state are now locking horns in the contest that will determine who succeeds outgoing governor Amosun.

    On the candidates’ list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), oil magnate, Dapo Abiodun from Iperu in the Remo axis of Ogun East, is the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) while Senator Buruji Kashamu, representing Ogun East Senatorial District in the National Assembly is the flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    Also on the list of candidates released by INEC are, Egba-born former Speaker of House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole as flag bearer of the Action Democratic Party (ADP) and a two-time governorship candidate, Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka, who now flies the ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Isiaka, who is from Yewa in Ogun West, was the candidate of the PDP in 2015. Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) is also in the race from Yewaland.

    With the above scenario, the 2019 governorship in Ogun State is playing out as a war zone, as all the four zones in the state are now having at least one major candidate in the race. This is contrary to the desire of Governor Amosun and other notable political leaders in the state, including former President Olusegun Obasanjo, to restrict the race to a contest between candidates from the Yewa axis of the state.

    The Ogun West Senatorial District is yet to produce a governor since 1976 when the state was created, and Amosun was determined to break the jinx. He campaigned vigorously for the ticket of the APC to be zoned to the area and he almost achieved that before the party’s NWC overruled his consensus arrangement and ordered a direct primary election which Dapo Abiodun, from Remoland, a zone in Ogun East Senatorial District, won.

    The PDP from day one never zoned the governorship ticket to Ogun West. Both factions of the party in the state seem to have their eyes on producing a candidate from Ogun East too, as no serious contender emerged from Ogun West and Central all through the process leading to the primary elections of the Adebutu and Kashamu factions of the PDP.

    Like Abiodun, Kashamu is from Ogun East and currently represents the district at the National Assembly. But he is from Ijebuland, another zone in the area which has also been clamoring to be given a chance to produce the governor of the state, 36 years after the late Bisi Onabanjo, its only son to have been governor of the state, left office. His supporters say Abiodun from Remo cannot be governor just eight years after Gbenga Daniel, another Remo man, left office.

    From Ogun Central, made up of the Egbas, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole is in the race. He is unperturbed by the fact that outgoing governor Amosun is from the same zone as himself. He says zoning should not rob the state of the best hands for the job. The congress that produced him took place in all the 20 Local Government Areas and 236 wards in the state, according to the Returning Officer for the primary election, Mr. Chamberlain Amadu.

    Not to be left out, the Yewas of Ogun West, preferred by Amosun and other opinion leaders to have the seat, have Isiaka in the race, but on the platform of little known ADC, having failed to bag the ticket of any of the two leading political parties. Akinlade, the preferred candidate of Governor Amosun, had defected from the ruling APC to the APM, to keep the Yewa agenda alive.

    Examining the voting populations of the various zones, analysts say if the people of the four autonomous clans decide to vote along tribal lines, the contest may not be decided on the first ballot. “And it is most likely the electorates will put tribal consideration on the front burner on Election Day, given the acrimonious and sectional campaign currently going on,” Joju Daini of Voters Right Agenda (VRA), told The Nation.

    “Ogun East with nine local government areas lost the chance of having an edge over the other two zones following the emergence of candidates from the two zones in the area. So, its majority population will be shared by its two sons, Abiodun and Kashamu of APC and PDP respectively. They are however helped by the fact that they are candidates of the two leading political parties.

    “Ogun Central with five local governments has only Dimeji Bankole in the race. But he will be contending with the popularity of both APC and PDP in his zone. While he is expected to enjoy the solidarity of his people, the unpopular nature of his party, the ADP in the state, will rob him of a landslide win in the Egbaland. No doubt, he will share the lot with the candidates of widely known APC and PDP.

    “The same will be the fate of Isiaka in Ogun West. He will benefit immensely from the clamor of his people for the governorship but ADC as a party is the major challenge to his victory in the race. Chieftains of the ruling APC, which is quite strong in the area, has refused to endorse his candidacy contrary to expectations in the zone. Instead, Akinlade, Amosun’s preferred candidate, has joined the APM as its governorship candidate,” Daini analyzed.

    But some pundits say this is convenient to say though the contest will be keen, the APC will win the election at the end of the day. They based their position on the weakened position of the PDP, the main opposition party and the inability of Governor Amosun and his political camp to openly canvass votes for Akinlade of the APM. “To add to this is the Osinbajo factor. Although based in Lagos, the Vice President hails from Ikenne-Remo in the Eastern Senatorial District of the state. It is expected that his kinsmen from Remoland and other parts of the state will because of him, support and vote for the APC candidates in the general election.

    Fresh developments during the week also weakened the ADC and strengthened the APC ahead of weekend’s elections. A senatorial candidate of the ADC in the State, Deji Ashiru, and his supporters reportedly dumped the party to support the governorship candidate of the APC, Dapo Abiodun. Reports also indicated that the ADC Ogun Central Senatorial candidate, Titi Oseni Gomez, has moved into the Dapo Abiodun camp.

    Reliable ADC sources told The Nation that the two senatorial candidates, who were defeated in the senatorial election by the APC, planned to work for Abiodun, as political parties and candidates forge alliances ahead of the March 9 governorship election. They probably believe Abiodun has a brighter chance to win the elections. While Ashiru had confirmed his defection, Gomez was yet to respond to enquiries sent to her as at press time.

    Also, in spite of the unusual political ripples, APC evidently enjoys appreciable support across the state. The Federal Government’s attention to major roads in the state, including the Sagamu-Ikorodu road and Lagos-Ibadan Expressway is also swaying support for the party across the state. Also, Buhari’s decision to immortalise the late Chief MKO Abiola, an indigene of Ogun, by declaring June 12 as the nation’s Democracy Day, remains a political move well aimed.

    It has endeared the party to the elites in the state and it is expected to help garner some votes across the state for APC. Similarly, numerous artisans and traders across the state who benefitted from the Tradermoni scheme are supporting the candidates of the ruling party just as many youths now enjoying under the N-Power employment scheme in the state, are poised to reward the APC. It is for these reasons that analysts concluded that though the election will be dramatic, the APC may still win.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    LAGOS STATE

    Although the APC in Lagos State retained its political hold on the state by winning all the three senate seats and garnering almost all the House of Representatives seats in the state, pundits say the party must be wary as the governorship election approach if it intends to stop the desire of the opposition PDP to invade the state politically. The result of the presidential contest in the state, to many, is a further confirmation that the PDP is waxing stronger in the state.

    The APC got 580, 825 votes while the PDP garnered 448, 015 votes in the presidential contest and pundits say the PDP has greatly reduced the margin when compared to 2015 when it similarly trailed the ruling party in the presidential contest. Also, the obvious reduction in the number of votes recorded by APC in Lagos, from 792, 460 in 2015 to a 580, 825 last Saturday is a source of worry to supporters of the party in the state.

    And considering the threat to “take over Lagos” by the opposition PDP, it is no longer very convenient to predict that APC will easily win the governorship election. Pundits are even of the opinion that unless the ruling party up its game before the next election in the state, the opposition PDP will perform better than it did in 2015 when it gave the ruling APC a good fight in all the elections. APC scored 811,994 to defeat the PDP which had 659,788 in the governorship race back then.

    “APC must wake up and shake off this complacency with which they seem to be approaching this year’s general election. The PDP has again put up a good fight like it did in 2015. The APC must go all out to reconnect with the people of Lagos. APC is still the party to beat in Lagos but the party must take drastic political steps to ward off the threat constantly being posed by the opposition party,” an analyst warned.

    Although the PDP and its candidates, encouraged by the outcome of the presidential election, are working hard to garner votes for the party, the personality of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, National Leader of the APC, still looms large across the state. He is one of the factors expected to work in favour of the APC next Saturday. Party sources said Tinubu has instructed that chieftains and members of the party in the state must go all out to win more votes for the APC.

    Analysts have also warned that it will be foolhardy for the PDP to conclude that the people of the state will vote in the governorship and State Assembly elections the same way they voted in the presidential election. “All politics are local. Many Lagosians voted against Buhari and not the APC. Many of them will be voting for Jide Sanwoolu, the APC guber candidate. So the two contests should be approached differently,” an observer said.

    To the party’s advantage is the fact that chieftains like Chief Mrs. Remi Adiukwu, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and its then state chairman, Moshood Salvador, are now in the APC. Many PDP bigwigs, including Chief Bode George, though still in the opposition party, are on a self-imposed political holidays, leaving the party without a known leader in the state.

    The PDP has also lost many of the areas it garnered votes to the APC following the defection of almost all the state and federal lawmakers that won on its platform into the APC. Thus, erstwhile strongholds of the PDP like Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Ojo, Badagry and Amuwo-Odofin are now brimming with APC chieftains ready to get the votes for the ruling party.

    Also, the APC ticket will benefit from the acceptance being enjoyed in the state by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. The choice of Osinbajo has been a hit across the Southwest and this is expected to translate into votes on Election Day for the APC. In spite of the criticisms trailing some of Governor Akinwunmi Ambode’s policies and projects, observers say the APC government in the state has performed enough to keep the voters trusting its candidates.

    However, as usual, the PDP is putting up a good fight in the state largely by targeting the votes of non-indigenes across the state. Jimi Agbaje, the party’s governorship flag-bearer, has also been promising non-indigenes better deals under a PDP administration in the state. During the week, the two parties intensified their mobilisation efforts across the state.

    But the ruling APC still look good to sweep victory as usual. Analysts say the reality on ground does not support PDP’s quest for political control of the Southwest state in spite of its unexpected performance last week. All things being equal, the APC should get majority of the total votes cast in the governorship election and also win most of the assembly seats in the state.

    Verdict: APC

     

    OYO STATE

    APC won the Presidential election in Oyo during the last presidential election when President Buhari squared up against former President Jonathan. APC scored 528, 620 while PDP got 303, 376. The state used to be the stronghold of the opposition PDP until recently. But before last weekend’s presidential election, majority of those chieftains who made the PDP thick in the state have jumped ship or gone into political oblivion, leaving the party in assumed limbo.

    The likes of former governors Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala are no longer with the party. While Ladoja now leads the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in the state, Alao-Akala is the gubernatorial candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Both leaders have also lost some of their chieftains to the ruling APC in recent times, especially Alao-Akala, who joined the APC briefly after dumping the PDP.

    Other erstwhile PDP top guns like former Senate Leader, Senator Teslim Folarin and former Secretary to the State Government, Chief Ayodele Adigun are now in the APC working for the success of its candidates. Observers of the politics of the state had said PDP in Oyo state was a ghost of its glorious past and cannot put up any serious challenge to the victory of the ruling APC in the general election.

    After a serious threat to its peace by a disagreement between Governor Abiola Ajimobi and Communications Minister, Barrister Adebayo Shitu, the APC in Oyo appeared to had repositioned itself to rout the opposition in all the elections. Buhari was expected to win the highest number of votes in the presidential election in Oyo state on the strength of the popularity of his party in the state.

    But all the above permutations were put to nought by the shocking outcome of the presidential and national assembly elections in the state. The APC lost the state gallantly to the PDP in what many observers are still calling a surprise performance by the underrated opposition PDP. Even Governor Ajimobi, who had boasted that his party will trounced the opposition across the state, lost his senatorial bid.

    Former Vice President of Nigeria and candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, won the Presidential election held across the 33 Local Government areas in Oyo state. The PDP candidate won in 18 Local Government areas while Buhari of the APC won in 15. The final result showed that Atiku Abubakar scored 366,640 to defeat Buhari who scored 365,229 votes.

    While many are putting the shocking defeat at the feet of the intra party crises that saw the likes of Alao-Akala moving out after the primary election, others are quick to blame Governor Ajimobi for the defeat. They argued that by taking on powerful individuals and groups like the Olubadan of Ibadan and other elites within the capital city, the governor costed APC its expected support from the Ibadans, who are in the majority across the state.

    To further add to APC’s problems, major opposition parties in the state are now holding alliance talks ahead of Saturday’s governorship election. Gubernatorial candidate of the PDP in the state, Seyi Makinde, disclosed that opposition parties in the state are currently meeting and have agreed to make their ambitions secondary. He assured that the alliance will bring something good for the people of the state.

    The PDP candidate, while confirming that opposition parties were ready to dislodge the APC, maintained that all the opposition parties have to come together for them to achieve the aim of unsitting the ruling party. He said, “We are working really hard to ensure that a workable coalition is able to come forward to challenge the APC in Oyo. “And I believe for the forthcoming election, we’re going to see a grand alliance in Oyo State,” he assured.

    It was also confirmed that the ruling party too, recovering from its shocking defeat by the PDP in the presidential and national assembly races, is now seeking alliance with some other parties. The Nation learnt that a serious discussion is currently ongoing between Alao-Akala’s ADP and the APC in the state. This, however, is as the ADP is also in talks with PDP and other parties.

    It was also gathered that the offer of alliances to ADP from the two leading parties, APC and PDP, became a source of disagreement among Alao-Akala’s supporters as the party sought to take a decision ahead of the governorship polls. Some of the allies of the former governor were of the opinion that any alignment with the APC amount to Alao Akala going back to his own vomit. They saw an alliance with the PDP as the best for ADP to teach Ajimobi and the APC a big lesson.

    But many others felt the politically upright thing to do is to support an alignment with the APC. Those in this school of thought held that Alao-Akala and his supporters would benefit a lot more from joining the ruling party instead of the PDP because the APC is the party at the centre. Meanwhile, there are those who wanted Alao-Akala to shun all talks of alliance and go all the way to contest the governorship election because they felt he looked good to win the contest ahead of both APC and PDP.

    However, with the Ogbomosho axis of the state firmly in the grip of Alao-Akala and his men, his latest decision to work with the APC during the gubernatorial and state assembly elections will have a major impact on the eventual outcome of the election. He gave indications that he may be returning to APC after meeting with the national leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

    The ADP governorship candidate visited Tinubu in the company of his wife, Oluwakemi Alao-Akala; his son, Olamiju and the Director General of his campaign, Wale Ohu, at Bourdillon on Thursday. The former governor had asked to be given time to make a formal statement on the meeting with the APC national leader. “It is true. Both of us have been meeting and we will continue to meet. I will call you in 24 hours to let you know the state of things,” he said.

    On Friday, in a statement by the Director General, Akala Campaign Organization, Chief Wale Ohu, Alao-Akala said going by the results of the February 23 presidential and National Assembly election, not much can be achieved in isolation. “We have felt the pulse of the people whose support has brought us this far: it is important that we dance when they play the tunes.To this effect, the Oyo state ADP and the Akala Campaign Organisation hereby call on all our members, teeming supporters and well-wishers across the state to come on board in this move towards positioning our state for better national interest,” he said.

    Coming on day when the former governor shunned the ongoing alliance meeting of opposition parties in the state on Friday, many observers have concluded that Alao-Akala’s new port of call is the APC, his former party. While governorship candidates of other parties attended the meeting at Sen. Rashidi Ladoja’s Bodija, Ibadan home, Akala, who was the brain behind the alliance, was absent. Similarly, a chieftain of the ADC in the state, Chief Michael Koleosho, has reportedly joined the APC team. Koleosho’s coming is expected to boost APC’s chances in his native Saki and other Oke-Ogun towns.

    Meanwhile, The Nation gathered that alliance talks and meetings among the political parties are still ongoing across the state even as the national leaderships of both the APC and the PDP may have intervened into efforts to get other parties into their kitty. With all the going-on in the politics of the state ahead of next Saturday’s gubernatorial elections, the eventual outcome of the election in Oyo state still remains too close to call.

    Verdict: Battleground

  • CODER deploys 380 election field observers

    The Coalition of Democrats for Electoral Reform (CODER) has said it has been granted accreditation by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to monitor the 2019 Presidential, National Assembly, Governorship and State Assembly elections.

    It said to fulfill this mandate, it has trained 380 field observers and deployed them to their assigned states since February 14.

    CODER, which was founded in 2009 by a coalition of individuals and organisations committed to supporting the electoral reform process in Nigeria, stated this in a statement to The Nation yesterday.

    The statement explained that the organisation is currently undergoing a restructuring process led by its Executive Director and Chairman of the Transitional Committee Dr. Wunmi Bewaji.

    According to the non-governmental group’s convener, Chief Ayo Opadokun, CODER’s objective is very simple: “to ensure that every vote counts”.

    The letter added: “Since the first phase of the struggle for electoral reform concluded with the enactment of far-reaching reforms initiated by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, following the recommendations of the Uwais Committee, CODER has continued to be in the forefront of safeguarding the electoral process by participating in election observation activities, as well as educating and engaging voters.

    “Each election cycle, many Nigerians have relied on POLLWATCH, the CODER election reporting platform, for up-to-date, verified election reports. #NigeriaDecides2019 will not be different.”

  • 2019: INEC retrieves sensitive materials from LGs to CBN in Lagos

    The National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Lagos State, on Sunday said it had retrieved all sensitive materials for the rescheduled Presidential and National Assembly elections earlier distributed to the 20 Local Government Areas of the state.

    INEC Spokesman in Lagos State, Mr Femi Akinbiyi told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Lagos, that all sensitive materials had been retrieved and kept in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under security watch.

    He said that the sensitive materials, which comprised ballot papers and result sheets, had been distributed at the three senatorial districts before they were later moved to the 20 LGAs.

    INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, had attributed the postponement of the elections to logistic and operational problems.

    Akinbiyi said that the Lagos State Commissioner of Police had monitored the exercise in some local governments.

    “The instruction from the INEC headquarters was that all sensitive materials should be moved back to the CBN and the Commissioner of Police in Lagos State was in Ikeja today to supervise such movement.

    “The movement across the state was done under tight security,” he said.According to him, all card readers earlier deployed to each local government area have been returned to the INEC office in Yaba for reconfiguration.

    The INEC Public Relations Officer added that all ad hoc staff had been paid their training allowances for the postponed elections.

    The Governorship, State Houses of Assembly, and FCT Area Council elections were also shifted from March 2 to March 9.The INEC state chairman said that the postponement would afford the electoral body the opportunity to address the identified challenges in order to maintain the quality of Nigeria’s election. (NAN)

  • Governorship hopeful preaches peaceful campaigns

    The Akwa Ibom State All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate Nsima Ekere has urged his supporters and party faithful to be peaceful throughout the electioneering campaigns.

    Ekere urged party members not to get into violence. He deplored the turmoil in the House of Assembly, blaming it on Governor Udom Emmanuel’s failure to respect separation of powers.

    “This is the first time we have seen a sitting governor leading thugs to the House of Assembly to cause mayhem. Akwa Ibom people say no to this invasion. It is totally unnecessary and uncalled for. It is against everything that democracy represents. The separation of powers must be respected.

    “Akwa Ibom people deserve peace. We appeal to every person, all actors that caused the present problem, to please ensure that they resolve it. You know how you started this problem, resolve this problem in the interest of Akwa Ibom people and in the interest of democracy.”

    The governorship hopeful promised to run a government based on truth and transparency, if elected next year.

    State APC Chairman Ini Okopido spoke on the post-primary unity in the party, noting that it ran contrary to the expectations of their opponents.

    He announced the constitution of the APC campaign organisation with a member of the party’s Board of Trustees, Grp. Capt. Ewang Sam Ewang (rtd) as chairman; Senior Special Assistant to the President on National Assembly (Senate) Matters Ita Enang (director-general); Chairman of the Centre for Black and African Arts and Civilisation (CBAAC) Abom Tony Esu (deputy director-general); Senator Godswill Akpabio (chief adviser) and a former governorship aspirant, John Udoedehe (deputy chief adviser).

    Ewang promised that Ekere would perform as governor, stressing he was ready to be held responsible for that.

    According to him, he accepted the assignment upon the conviction that APC was heading for a clear win in 2019.

    Akpabio said Ekere’s election was certain because those with God-given grace to make governors were with him.

    He hinged his support for Ekere on the latter’s humility, prowess and performance in NDDC.

    “Nsima Ekere, you are the next governor of Akwa Ibom State,” he said.

  • ‘PDP has no candidate for Borno governorship, Central senatorial poll’

    The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) in Borno State has no valid candidates for next year’s governorship and Borno Central senatorial election, a group, ‘Yerwa-Oodua PDP Support Group,’ said yesterday.

    The group, with headquarters in Ijora, Lagos is made up of PDP members from Borno State who live in Southwestern states of Lagos, Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo.”

    Its Chairman, Bakura Goni- Makinta, and secretary, Mustapha Mustapha, who spoke in English and Hausa, said unless the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) adopts the former Minister of State for Power, Mohammed Wakil, as the PDP governorship candidate and a former Speaker of the House of Assembly, Bukar Kachallah, as Borno Central senatorial candidate, the PDP will suffer electoral defeat.

    They said although some PDP members were making reference to 2011 when an incumbent governor lost the Borno Central senatorial election to the PDP, they could not recall that the PDP had Mohammed Goni as its governorship candidate, adding that his popularity determined the outcome of the parliamentary election.

    According to them, the APC had popular candidates, apart from President Muhammadu Buhari, who ran on the platform of the defeunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).

    Goni-Makinta said: “Ahead of the 2019 general elections, the PDP in Borno State has no valid candidates, particularly for the governorship and Borno Central senatorial elections, until the on-going court cases between the two factions of the party are determined in weeks to come. “Not withstanding the publication of the names of Alhaji Mohammed Imam for the governorship and Senator Mohammed Abba Aji for the Borno Central senatorial election by the INEC, the two persons are not valid candidates because their primaries were conducted by an unlawful state executive committee under the so called chairmanship of Alhaji Zannah Gaddama whereas a Federal High Court in Maiduguri had two months ago delivered a judgment recognising that the valid state executive committee of the PDP in Borno State is under Alhaji Usman Baderi as chairman. That judgment was well reported by journalists in Borno State”.

    Goni-Makinda said the court judgment still subsisted, adding that there is no order by any court of competent jurisdiction setting it aside.

    He said the state PDP secretariat on Sir Kashim Shettima Way, Maiduguri is being used by Alhaji Usman Baderi while the factional chairman, Zanna Gaddama,  operates from a private residence.

    Goni-Makinda added: “Based on its lawful recognition by the Federal High Court in Maiduguri, the PDP state executive committee under Usman Baderi’s leadership has since held its credible primaries that produced the former Minister of State for Power, Mohammed Wakil, as PDP governorship candidate in Borno State and a former Speaker of the House of Assembly, Alhaji Bukar Kachallah, as the PDP candidate for Borno Central senatorial election.

    “We are very optimistic that very soon, the court will in reaffirming it’s earlier judgment, give an order to the INEC to uphold the names of Alhaji Mohammed Wakil as our governorship and Bukar Kachallah for the Borno Central senatorial election as our candidates elected from lawful primary elections.”

    The chairman said the PDP has no chance in next year’s poll in Borno State.

    Goni-Makinta stressed: “Alhaji Mohammed Imam does not have the pedigree to challenge the APC governorship candidate, who is a very popular professor with known records of deep involvement in the rebuilding of many communities destroyed by Boko Haram in about 20 local government areas of Borno State.

  • APC clears Sanwo-Olu, Abiodun, Ogboru, Adelabu, 20 others as governorship candidates

    The coast is now clear for 24 members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to contest the March 2, 2019 governorship election on the platform of the party after its National Working Committee affirmed their nominations during this week’s primaries.

    The ratification was the highpoint of Thursday’s meeting of the NWC in Abuja, according to the acting National Publicity Secretary of the party, Mr. Yekini Nabena.

    But the ratification did not go down well with some party members who have started bombarding the APC leadership with protests  and calls for an immediate review.

    One of such protests came from an aspirant in Ogun State, Mr. Jimi Lawal, who wants the APC leadership to cancel “the so-called results and declare the primary election null and void and thoroughly investigate the circumstances surrounding the hijack and diversion of the election materials and institute criminal proceedings against those found culpable.”

    Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna State remained vehement yesterday in his opposition to the automatic ticket given to Senator Shehu Sani by the party to contest the Kaduna Central seat.

    Emerging from a meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari where he apparently sought to reverse Sani’s nomination, the governor said Buhari was against giving automatic tickets to aspirants.

    He claimed the President promised to wade into the various issues of automatic tickets granted to some politicians in some states.

    The 24 governorship candidates approved by the APC NWC include Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos State), Governor Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), Gov. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje (Kano), Governor Simon Lalong (Plateau), Governor Mohammed Abubakar (Bauchi), Governor Abubakar Bagudu (Kebbi) and Governor Aminu Bello Masari (Katsina).

    Others are Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar (Jigawa), Governor Abubakar Sani Bello (Niger), Ahmed Aliyu (Sokoto), Prof. Babagana Umara-Zulum (Borno), Abubakar Sule (Nasarawa), Emmanuel Jime (Benue), Tonye Cole (Rivers), Uche Ogah (Abia), Nsima Ebere (Akwa Ibom), Adebayo Adelabu (Oyo), Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), Great Ogboru (Delta), Senator John Owan Enoh (Cross River), Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe), Senator Sunny Ogboji (Ebonyi) and Sani Abubakar Danladi (Taraba).

    The party’s decision effectively rules out Mr. Isiaka Akinlade who won a parallel primary by a faction of the party loyal to Governor Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State and Mr. Magnus Abe who was nominated by his faction of the party in Rivers State.

    Nabena said in a statement in Abuja that the clearance followed the adoption of the report of the various electoral committees sent to conduct the primaries in the various states.

    A few hours after the APC announcement, the chairman of its Primary Election Committee in Enugu State, Prof. Moses Momoh, declared Senator Ayogu Eze the winner of the primary.

    Eze beat four other aspirants by polling 53,967 out of the 66,122 votes in the rescheduled primary.

    The governorship primaries for Kwara and Adamawa states are yet to be held while those of Zamfara and Imo states were cancelled for irregularities.

    Lawal to APC NWC: Invalidate Ogun primary result

    One of the contestants for the APC governorship ticket in Ogun State, Mr. Jimi Lawal, yesterday called for the outright cancellation of the result of the primary that produced Prince Dapo Abiodun as the party’s candidate.

    Lawal, in a petition to party chair Comrade Adams Oshiomhole said the panel sent to the state to conduct the primary shirked its responsibilities.

    He said that owing to delay in the arrival of the panel, a meeting between the panelists and aspirants did not begin until about 10.35 pm.

    His words: “No sooner than the meeting started at about 10.35 pm, after introduction and setting of agenda, a fracas occurred which we later understood to be a street fight between two gangs: one accompanied Prince Dapo Abiodun and the other being that of Adekola Akinlade, which led to the arrest of a couple of those of Prince Dapo Abiodun.

    “He (Abiodun) vehemently protested against the selective arrest, and we all appealed to the Secretary to the State Government (who was not only in attendance but also served as the moderator) that since the atmosphere of the meeting was that of a family affair as he had previously stated in his opening remarks, the arrested people should be released while both sides were enjoined to keep the peace.”

    He said it was obvious to all that the direct primary approved for the state never took place and that the result announced by the Senator Gbenga Aluko-led panel was a nullity.

    Contacted about the complaints, Nabena told newsmen that all those who have complaints about the conduct of the primaries still have an opportunity to direct such to the Appeals Committee set up by the party.

    He also said aspirants who are not satisfied with the decision of the party on the list of governorship candidates are free to forward their appeals to the party’s National Working Committee.

    Abe also kicks

    A similar protest came from Senator Magnus Abe whose nomination by his faction of the party in Rivers State was rejected by the APC leadership in favour of Mr. Tonye Cole.

    The former Secretary to the Rivers State Government (SSG) said: “We are preparing our petition which we will send to the Apeals Committee.

    “I have nothing against Architect Tonye Cole (co-founder of Sahara Group, who emerged last Sunday through indirect primary election). He is a friend and he remains a friend. But as politicians, we are fighting the fight based on justice and based on our commitment to truth. There are certain things that cannot change except there is justice.

    “This is a situation that we warned about since two years ago when the Minister for Transportation, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, called a meeting of this party and started threats that snowballed into the current situation.

    “We warned, we pleaded, we talked non-stop for close to two years to draw the attention of the party, to draw the attention of this country to the crisis that is being created and sustained in the party for no other reason but to ensure that we do not have any opportunity to participate in the governorship primaries of our party.”

    Abe pledged his loyalty to President Buhari and the APC but stressed that “those who want peace should work to enthrone justice in the party (APC). Without truth, there can be no justice, and without justice, there can be no peace. We remain committed and we will be committed to the APC.”

    Buhari against automatic tickets, says El-Rufai

    Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna State met with President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja yesterday over the automatic ticket given to Senator Shehu Sani (Kaduna Central), apparently in a move to reverse the party’s decision.

    “Many contestants that have been screened by the committee were removed from the list unilaterally by some elements in the party. There are rumors that some people have been granted automatic tickets,” he told reporters after his meeting with the President.

    He added: “But by yesterday (Thursday) when the representatives of the Progressive Governors Forum met with Mr. President and the National Chairman, we thought that this rumour of automatic ticket, which has no place in our constitution and any enlightened democracy, had been resolved.

    “But up to the time I left Kaduna this morning and came to see the President, we did not receive the list of those that will contest the legislative elections.

    “On my way, I received a list of our state party structure but it seems to me there are still exclusions. As you know exclusions are one of the many reasons elections are lost at the tribunal level.

    “We are being careful in Kaduna State. We do not practice imposition, force people to step down for anyone. We believe in elections and we like people to subject themselves to full democratic process.

    “In some states, you have one list from the governor. We don’t have any list. We gave everyone a level playing ground and subject them to meeting the requirements of the party. Everyone is allowed to contest and may the best man win.”

    He said Sani should be encouraged to test his popularity with APC delegates, saying:  “It is not me. I only have one vote as the governor of the state.

    “It’s up to the delegates in the Kaduna State APC to vote for Shehu Sani or vote for other candidates.

    “But what democracy says is that every person should be given a chance to contest.

    “Shehu Sani has done things against the interest of the people of Kaduna State, and it is time for him to explain why he did what he did and ask the delegates to vote for him. But to avoid facing the consequences of your actions by getting what is called automatic ticket is a recipe tfor losing the election to other parties

    Asked whether he got any commitment from the President, el-Rufai said: “The President restated his position that he is a democrat, a product of elections, and he has never encouraged non-election.

    “He has never supported imposition and he has never asked anyone to grant anybody automatic tickets.

    “The position was restated yesterday (Thursday) to the Progressive Governors Forum and he told me this and said he will take necessary steps to communicate this very clearly to the party leadership.”