The Nation Newspaper

Tag: groping

  • Groping for modernism

    SIR: A soy bean that cracks because others have done same will crack before it is ripe according to Igbo proverb.  Looking back to the 2015 presidential election, most of the criticisms against President Muhammadu Buhari’s candidacy were due to his lack of predisposition to modernism.  Without much equivocation, ardent followers in the happenings of his administration will concur that this inadequacy is burdening his ability as a leader.

    Placing this fear of his unsophistication in the pathway of the transformation agenda of former President Jonathan would seem the surest way for the nation to commit a political suicide.  The trickling effects of modernity showcased by the administration had bamboozled the people who hitherto have not experienced a functional democracy.  The beneficiaries of the squander sing chorus in a jingle orchestrated for exploitation.

    Destiny seems to have a hand in the progression of the nation.  This assertion may not be a popular perception.  Nonetheless, an undiluted observation of the past administration will highlight dangerous elements in the polity that pollute good governance.  It has come to light in today’s government that the level of corruption was inimical to modernism.  However, this revelation does not make everything perfect in the present dispensation.

    We ought to be guided.  You cannot give what you do not have.  President Buhari’s obscure sense of the dynamics of the modern society can only bode disaster for the nation.  As it is already unfolding in the fractionalization of the different regions by militant groups, the country is kneeling at the kerb of explosion.  The president seems not to know the tangential connectivity of the points that give rise to a progressive society.

    Not minding the political desperation that has been bedevilling the country for very long, one could see a crystal formation.  Perhaps, this is a romanced vision of an idealist.  It may be worth giving recognition.  The purported championing of a modern state by the Jonathan administration was evidently built on a corrupt foundation.  This anomaly cannot support a strong system.  The collapse of the structure could lend credence to a natural phase out of an era in the projection of a better nation.

    The steel bone of military crudity could be the one mechanism capable of bulldozing the façade of an unconscionable system.  Not that one advocates the return to that monstrosity.  Many may squirm at the brutality of the government against the despicable practices tolerated by the past administration but the rot has to be gutted out for a new leaf to bloom.  The country is caught between a rock and a hard place.  None could imagine the wreckage that might befall the nation if the reckless train ride went unbound.

    Modernism is sustained by freshness of ideas.  For such a noble concept to bear fruit, it must be fortified with the nutrition of a formidable legal framework.  Abusers of the social order must be made accountable to the law.  The notion must be pampered like a new-born as a toxic environment will dwarf its excellence.  It is not utopia by any stretch of the imagination.  The sooner the whip is cracked against the miscreants, the better the chance of the nation to dig itself out of the rot to the glowing sunshine of modernism.

    • Pius Okaneme,

    Umuoji, Anambra State.

  • Still groping in the dark

    Still groping in the dark

    Despite the much touted power sector reform which saw the unbundling of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) into 15 successor companies comprising five generation companies (GENCOs) and 10 distribution companies (DISCOs) last September, there is still no hope of light at the end of the dark tunnel, writes Ibrahim Apekhade Yusuf

    EVERYBODY was in an upbeat mood last September when President Goodluck Jonathan handed over share certificates and licenses to the 15 new owners of the power distribution companies (discos) and generation companies (GENCOs) which succeeded the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN).

    The move was described at the time as a historic milestone in the power sector reform process.

    An elated President Jonathan could not hide his feelings at the occasion as he expressed delight that the process of privatising the power sector has been “adjudged by both local and foreign investors as transparent, well-organised, and fair.”

    Jonathan recalled how the journey towards the complete privatisation of the power sector began in 1999 when the National Council on Privatisation (NCP) constituted the Electricity Power Sector Implementation Committee, with a mandate to undertake a comprehensive study and review of the entire industry.

    He maintained that the success recorded so far in the privatisation of the GENCOs and DISCOs had prompted government to commence the privatisation of the generation assets of the new National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) of the Niger Delta Power Holding Company of Nigeria (NDPHCN), jointly owned by the federal, state and local Governments.

    Acknowledging that there have been challenges in the reform process, he said they are being tackled as he listed the payment of PHCN workers’ entitlements as one of such challenges.

    “It is important to say to our labour partners, who we know to be patriotic Nigerians, that they should not nurse feelings of displacement, but dwell on the tremendous possibilities that the revitalisation of the sector holds for them and the future,” he said.

    The transfer of ownership to core investors was expected to increase significantly the present 4,000 mega watts being generated.

    But as the populace continues to pine under the yoke of darkness with no end in sight of the troubling energy crisis, not a few are agreed on the fact that the problem bedeviling the sector is irredeemable.

    Points to ponder

    In the view of analysts, investment and growth in Nigeria’s power sector had for some 40 years seriously lagged behind the growth in Nigeria’s population, leading to inadequate and obsolete equipment. Not only is capacity and equipment grossly inadequate, the performance of the existing facility in Nigeria’s power sector is seriously compromised by irregular maintenance.

    Efficiency of Nigeria’s electric power industry is also negatively affected by the concentration of generation, distribution and transmission sub-sectors in a single-state monopoly corporation for decades.  Investments and projects have not been adequately prioritised and planned; projects in one sub-sector are commissioned without regard to those they depend on to deliver power in other sub-sectors.

    By Nigerian law, only the Federal Government could operate in the sector. Consequently, all of Nigeria’s generation, distribution and transmission utilities were centralised in one behemoth, the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) and extremely cumbersome decision-making hampered operations.

    But the monopolistic nature of the industry not only prevented the type of choice and competition that Nigerians have enjoyed in the telecommunications sector. It also led to a situation where Nigerians in all cities suffered from the poor performance of a single electricity provider.

    In many countries of the world, different generation and distribution companies are regional where different standards of service delivery gradually converge to improve overall industry standard.

    The commercial discipline that ensures that the three sub-sectors of the industry, namely, – generation, distribution and transmission – are legally bound to honour their obligations to each other is also absent. For instance, the distribution sub-sector fails in its obligation to collect enough revenue for the power that the generation sector passes on to it through the transmission sector to distribute to consumers. The transmission sector, on the other hand, cannot invest in building and maintaining the capacity to distribute the power the generation sector supplies to it.

    Besides, analysts argued that the lack of legal obligation to pay for power supply in the industry results in poor planning and waste of the limited power the country generates and inability to finance expansion of services from revenues generated within the industry. Power outages are prolonged and maintenance tasks delayed due to a significant shortage of critical engineering and technical staff; the government-controlled power industry, unlike the telecommunications companies, cannot satisfactorily remunerate the quality of staff it requires to maintain and build capacity.

    Road to power sector reform

    In order to substantially boost electricity generation and supply in the country as well as make the sector commercially viable, President Goodluck Jonathan on August 26, 2010, unveiled the road map for power sector reform and outlined government’s strategies to end the decade-long electricity crisis.

    The power reform provided for the establishment of NERC, the unbundling of PHCN and privatisation of the successor companies, winding up of the holding company and transfer of stranded assets and liabilities to an asset management company, as well as the establishment of a bulk trader and Transition Electricity Market (TEM) for emerging participants in the power sector.

    Since it began, the power privatisation has witnessed stiff resistance of the labour unions in the sector, which maintained that it was not going to be in their interest. But despite the opposition by the union members and fears that preferred bidders might not meet up with the payment of outstanding balance of their bid prices for the power assets, given the difficulty faced by some of them in raising the initial 25 per cent of the offer value of their bids, the electric power privatisation programme is grinding towards a success, as almost all the bidders met the payment deadline.

    The generation companies now in the hands of core investors are Geregu, Ughelli, Olorunsogo and Egbin Power plants, as well as Kainji and Shiroro Hydro electric plants while the distribution companies involved are Abuja, Benin, Eko, Ibadan, Ikeja, Jos, Kano, Port Harcourt and Yola.

    They are: West Power and Gas, the preferred bidder for the Eko Distribution Company; NEDC/KEPCO, Ikeja Distribution Company; 4power Consortium, Port Harcourt Distribution Company; Vigeo Consortium, Benin Distribution Company; Aura Energy, Jos Distribution Company; Kann Consortium, Abuja Distribution Company; Integrated Energy Distribution and marketing Company, the preferred bidder for the Ibadan and Yola Distribution Companies; Sahelian Power, Kano Distribution Company; Transcorp/Woodrock Consortium, Ughelli Power Plc; Mainstream Energy Limited, Kanji Power Plc; and CMEC/ EUAFRIC Energy JV, which made the part-payment for the acquisition of Sapele Power Plc.

    Mixed reaction over new owners

    However, stakeholders were of the view that efficiency in the sector will depend on the right indices being adhered to by the new players in the power sector. For instance, the immediate past President of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), Peter Esele, said the new investors should promote customer services and boost power supply to reduce unemployment.

    “Some customers are asked to pay for transformers and this is wrong. MTN cannot ask subscribers to pay for base stations. We must also understand how we are being billed. If I use my money to buy meter, someone should not tell me that the meter is not my property. We are expecting efficient power system because no development can take place without stable power. The new investors should also build manpower.

     “There will be challenges but it will be better than where we are coming from. Monopoly is bad in any system. Once power goes into private hands, the new investors know that they can be sued and this will make them to do better,” he said.

    Megawatts profile of other countries

    To say that Nigerians are among the people most deprived of grid-based electricity in the world with around 3, 600 Megawatts for the over 160 million population, a per capita consumption that is far lower than many other African countries is not in doubt.

    Investigation by The Nation revealed that an average South African is provided 97 per cent more electricity than a Nigerian while a Brazilian enjoys 93 per cent more.

    Brazil is able to generate 100,000 MWs of grid-based electric power for a population of 201 million people while South Africa generates 40,000 MW for 50 million citizens.

    Nigeria currently has installed capacity to generate about 6, 000 megawatts of electricity of which about 3, 600 is actually generated.

    This compares very poorly with the United States’ 1, 010,172 megawatts (for a population of 310,571,000), South Africa’s 44, 074.4 megawatts (for a population of 49,320,150), and Ghana’s 2,111 megawatts (for a population of 23,837,261). Per capita, this equals 22.8 watts of electricity for each Nigerian, 535.8 watts for a Brazilian, 3, 252.6 watts for an American, South Africa 1, 093 watts for a South African, and 88.6 watts for a Ghanaian.

    Unending woes of power sector

    A legion of woes is bedeviling the nation’s power sector, chief among which is infrastructural limitation.

    In the view of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), the problem of unresolved staff issues is yet another major impediment to the smooth operations of recently privatised electricity generation (GENCOs) and distribution companies (DISCOs).

    The electricity sector regulator in a statement in Abuja said this emerged during the second general meeting of the industry operators.

    The Chairman of NERC, Dr. Sam Amadi, during the meeting assured operators that the commission will meet with the Bureau of Public Enterprises to provide necessary interventions for speedy resolution of the legacy staffing issues, among others.

    “Legacy staffs of the defunct Power Holding Company of Nigeria are yet to know their fate with the new owners as they are yet to be served severance letters, officially terminating their contracts with the company. As a consequence, these workers who have not yet been legitimately engaged by the new owners have been forced to linger on in this uncertainty.”

    Besides, the dearth of skilled manpower in the nation’s power sector is another problem troubling the sector.

    Echoing similar sentiments, the Country President, Schneider Electric, Mr. Marcel Hochet, in an interview recently said manpower loophole in the power sector was more serious than people thought, reiterating that the new investors required adequately skilled manpower to improve power supply to electricity consumers.

    Gale of sack

    This is certainly not the best of times for electricity consumers across the country as they may be in for the worst if the new investors in the sector go ahead with their planned sack of about 5,357 electricity workers, following the expiration of the six months probation period given by the Federal Government.

    The Nation gathered that Egbin Power Plc, the largest generation utility firm in Nigeria, may have concluded plans to lay off about 339 workers at the end of April in a move to reduce the wage bill of the 27-year-old company.

    Further checks revealed that the board of the company met last Thursday to consider the recommendations of a consultant hired to carry out a staff audit to determine its manpower needs.

    However, in order not to create a lacuna in the area of manpower, the Federal Government recently recruited about 500 engineers for the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) who are currently undergoing training at the National Power Training Institute of Nigeria (NPTIN).

    It was revealed that over 27 business managers have so far resigned their appointments with electricity companies taken over by new owners, over poor conditions of service.

    Yola and Jos DISCOs, for instance, received resignation letters from eight management staff while the remaining eight Discos also lost 15 management staff to resignation.

    “Some of them were advised to resign after they had been shown letters,” the source said, adding that about 5,357 workers in the senior and junior cadres have been penciled down for sack by 11 distribution companies.

    At the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (Ibadan DISCO), the situation was not different as four business managers had resigned over alleged unfriendly attitude of some top management officials of Integrated Energy Distribution and Marketing Limited, owners of the Ibadan DISCO.

    For instance, Mr. Kanmi Adetunji, Mr. Bashiru Osho and Mr. Johnson Adeyemi had resigned their appointments over what they considered high-handedness of the new owners.

    A senior official of the company, who would not be named, noted that, “these people are versed in the job and they are well sought after in the industry but they can’t stand the high-handedness of the management.”

    It was also learnt that more managers might tender their resignation letters this week in protest over the management philosophy of the DISCOs and GENCOs.

    Ibadan DISCO is the largest electricity distribution company in the country with its distribution and marketing network covering parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun and Kwara states.

    But the Chairman, Presidential Task Force on Power (PTFP), Mr. Beks Dagogo-Jack, in an interview recently dismissed fears that the latest development could truncate the gains of the power privatisation process.

    The PTFP boss argued that no experienced worker would be sacked because the power investors appreciate experience and as such would not want to lose any good hand.

    He pleaded with Nigerians to be patient with the new owners to allow the process take shape before they begin to express fears capable of sending wrong signals to international investors who may want to buy into the sector.

    At the moment, the various DISCOs are still battling for survival in the area of revenue generation because many of them don’t even have enough marketers to execute revenue drive while consumers are also breathing down their neck to improve on the poor service. There is also immense pressure on them to provide efficient metering system to resolve estimated billing and poor power supply.

    In a related development, the managements of Eko and Ikeja Electricity DISCOs, have sacked no fewer than 5,075 workers, it was learnt.

    2,600 workers were said to have had their identity cards withdrawn by Eko DISCO, while 2,475 were from Ikeja DISCO.

    “We are totally confused because we do not know what to do. Our ID cards have been withdrawn without any explanation,” an affected worker said.

    A senior officer who commented on the situation said: “All workers are to submit their ID cards and then re-apply to the DISCOs as new workers. We will definitely re-engage some, while some would be laid off.”

    Reacting, organised labour dared any of the DISCOs and generation companies, GENCOs, to sack the workers and face their wrath.

    Speaking with The Nation on the development, General Secretary of the National Union of Electricity Employees, NUEE, Mr. Joe Ajaero, said the union was expecting a conversion of the temporary employment to full employment in accordance with extant labour law, warning that anything short of that would mean trouble.

    Meanwhile, workers in Warri, led by officials of NLC and Trade Union Congress, TUC, crippled operations at Benin Electricity Distribution Company, BEDC, in Warri.

    A breather for consumers

    Customers of a DISCO that have not received continuous or cumulative electricity supply for a period of 15 days in a month are not required to pay the monthly fixed charge, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, has declared.

    The Chairman of NERC, Dr. Sam Amadi, who gave the order last Wednesday at a pressing briefing in Abuja, said this became necessary after the commission carried out investigations into complaints from consumers over continued payment of fixed charge even when the energy is not delivered.

     “While the commission has determined that the fixed charge remains an essential component of the bill, it has however reviewed the continued retention of the fixed charge component in the tariff and payment of fixed charge in the light of consumer complaints, particularly with regard to continued payment of fixed charge even when the energy is not delivered to the consumer. Upon due considerations of these complaints by the consumers, and considering the role of NERC in Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry, NESI, the commission as provided under Section 32d, and Section 32f of the EPSR Act 2005, it is hereby ordered that effective May 1, 2014, where any customer of a distribution licensee has not received electricity supply for a period of 15 days, in a month, such a customer shall not be required to pay fixed charge.”

    Amadi, however, warned that the order stands provided the disruption is not due to non-payment of electricity bill or other actions of the consumer like tampering with electricity infrastructure, vandalism, or it is totally unrelated to the fault of the distribution company.

    “There have been a lot of comments from consumers about the fixed charge and the concern is whether it is fair, and legal” he said.

    He maintained that the fixed charge which is an element of customers’ electricity bill charged on monthly basis to allow for the recovery of costs associated with the fixed or permanent investments required for the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity is a universal best practice, stressing that it is not peculiar to Nigeria.

    Amadi said that the section 32d of Electricity Power Sector Reform Act 2005, empowers NERC to ensure that the prices charged by licensees are fair to the consumers and are sufficient enough to allow the licensees to finance their activities and to allow for reasonable earnings for efficient operations.

    According the NERC boss, the commission had already published the monthly fixed charge in the Multi Year Tariff Order, MYTO 2, adding that no DISCO has the power to change it.

    But, while all these complaints and resolves are being thrown back and forth, Nigerians continue to wallow in the dark.

  • Groping along the long, dark tunnel

    Groping along the long, dark tunnel

    Thanks to Vanguard newspaper’s April 2 edition for reminding us, yet again, of the confounding arithmetic of the power sector. According to the newspaper, Nigeria from 1999 till date poured some N5 trillion ($31.45 billion) into the sector. Hopefully, by December when the new power plants under the National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) come on stream, output in power generation is expected to hit 10,000mw – barring unforeseen developments.

    For the power-starved citizens, it remains a matter of watching and praying to see whether this dream would materialize. Just like 2005 when the nation first caught the bug of power sector activism, a lot of action is supposedly going on in the sector to stoke excitement. Never mind that the activism of the last 14 years and which has gulped $31.45 billion now promises to deliver a mere 5,500mw net addition to the grid.

    By comparison, South Africa’s $37 billion expenditure spread over a 10-year period is programmed to treble its current 45,000mw capacity. Now, if that is supposed to be a measure of how confounding the nation’s power econometrics is, that comparison merely seeks to temper citizen’s expectations as the magical date of abundant-power-for-all draws close.

    If I may repeat the familiar cliché, it is certainly not yet uhuru. The signs of bad faith and incompetence are more than evident. Call it the Nigerian nightmare; we have seen lots of talks but very little progress in terms of things that count. If it is not failed contractors stalling the projects, it is gas pricing and investment issues bogging down the process. While these go on, the turbines cannot be put into action. Most recently, we have had personnel issues – issues of severance package to be paid to disengaging PHCN staff thrown into the mix. If anything, they merely remind that the Nigerian jinx is alive and well.

    I have looked at the Power Sector Reform Act 2005. Honestly, I find nothing that can be described as unworkable in the instrument. I have also taken time to look at the roadmap for the sector’s reforms – a beautiful document by any standard. Those two instruments are no doubt milestones at least as far as laying the foundations for the much touted liberalization of the sector goes. Unfortunately, this is Nigeria where achievements are better delivered – on paper.

    In other words, real progress is a different matter. True, the structural reforms have gone fairly well. One can safely say at this time that the reforms have turned the corner – irreversible. Save for the lingering personnel issues, the sale of the unbundled distribution entities are as good as sealed. And, after months of dithering, the transmission company has also been handed over to the new managers – Manitoba Hydro Electric of Canada. For once, it seems that the regulator can claim to be on top of its game. Taken together with the frenzied pace to deliver the NIPP plants on their target date, and the various initiatives to deliver gas to fire them, the nation can claim to be closer to the dream of steady electric power supply.

    The issue unfortunately is hardly whether progress has, or is being, made. The debate has gone beyond the need for structural changes. They have in fact been accepted as inevitable. The real problem is the attempt to see the changes as an end as against being a means to an end. For instance, the process that led to the sale of PHCN entities cannot by any stretch of imagination substitute for the truly liberalised power sector that the nation craves. Sure, parceling the behemoth among different operators is a far cry from the picture of post reform power sector once bandied. I mean the picture of foreign investors falling over themselves to have a piece of the action in the deregulated power environment.

    The issue, in summary, is about doubling, trebling or even quadrupling investment and output of electricity in the years to come. Isn’t that the whole idea behind the institutional redesign?

    This is where I consider the entire process somewhat disappointing.

    With due respect to the new owners of the distribution companies, what comes as striking is the absence of players of substance – global leaders – among them. Of course, in some established cases, some of the power plants were sold on non-competitive basis. Taken together, these issues raise the question of whether something isn’t fundamentally missing in the post-reform legislative and institutional architecture.

    I wish I could state that the prognosis in the near term is anything but bad. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see the inefficiencies which hobbled the operations of the PHCN disappear because it carries a new name; as for competition; there will be none.

    Of course, no one needs to worry about the long term because by then, we’ll all be dead!

     

    Feedback

     

     

    Re-Oteh/Reps duel

    Your write up on the Oteh/Reps duel is very informative. The Reps vengeance has blinded them to the extent that they denied SEC workers 2013 appropriation. It is tyrannical overreach and unconstitutional. Chuma Mbaise, Imo State

    The two chambers reps/senate is one of the calamities that befell Nigeria. Their salaries/benefits are never and will never be known. Their next target will be the judiciary. Were they that articulate, they would have issued a query, asking the Senate to explain why Oteh was confirmed. They always have exaggerated impression of themselves/limitations. They are a disaster. Akinlayo A, Osun

    I am fascinated by your write up on Oteh/Reps duel. It is indeed sad that the so-called representatives of the people have decided to play to the gallery on this Oteh saga. What these honourable members should tell Nigerians is: what was the state of our stock market before Arunma Oteh took over as DG and the present state since her leadership of the market. I believe the powerful “thieves” who ran the stock market aground during the tenure of the Prof Ndidi Okereke-led stock market with the active collaboration of the CBN then, are hell bent on frustrating this woman who has worked tirelessly to reposition the market. She sure stepped on toes when she revealed the rot in NSE/SEC perpetrated by her predecessors with the active connivance of the Board. It is pathetic that those who are sincerely ready to work for the benefit of all Nigerians are usually frustrated. What a pity! +234 8158836388

    Sanya, I didn’t know we still have knowledgeable and bold Nigerians in the country’s enduring hopelessness and rudderlessnes. Thanks for your piece on Oteh/Reps duel. When will those reps stop behaving like street urchins in legislative quarters? Sincerely, we must find a way to end the madness. Rev Dr A Ezimah.

     

     

     

  • Tragedy of a groping nation

    Tragedy of a groping nation

    THERE is probably something about the foundation of Nigeria that continues to haunt its march to maturity. Prior to the October 1,1960 lowering of the Union Jack, the symbol of subjugation to British suzerainty, controversy had marked the process all the way. First was the dispute over who moved the motion for the nation’s attainment of freedom. It is popularly credited to the late Chief Anthony Enahoro who, in 1953, moved the historic motion in the House of Representatives. He proposed that the country should become self-governing by 1956. However, some scholars and historians have queried the credit since Enahoro’s motion was just to bring self government, not full independence. Besides, even when no one could question the historic import of the proposal within the context of 1953, it was not carried and thus failed to usher in independence.

    Then came the Remi Fani-Kayode motion in 1957. The son of that legendary figure, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, has of recent made strident efforts to call attention to the fact that his father’s motion succeeded and eventually led to the 1960 independence.

    But then, there was a third. In May 1960, the man who later became the Prime Minister, Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa-Belewa, formally moved that the British transfer power to Nigerian leaders. That came after series of constitutional conferences and an agreement by leaders of the political parties and regions. It heralded the activities of October 1, that year.

     

    The First Republic

     

    Only the deep and discerning could have perceived from the wording of the first national anthem that there was fire on the mountain. Nigeria we hail thee, the anthem said and went on to acknowledge that it is our dear native land. But the next line suggested that it is a land of disparate people who may not easily become a nation by the mere lowering of the British flag. It announced, “though tribe and tongue may differ…” It was an indication that there could be trouble going forward and it did not take long before the differences manifested and led to tension in the system.

    Within two years, the sore had turned to cancer. Two major political parties had drawn the battle line. The Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) that controlled the Northern region and in power at the centre, decided to finish off the Action Group (AG), led by the methodical Chief Obafemi Awolowo. The instruments of state came in handy as weapons for the ruling party. A crisis was provoked in the AG and Awolowo, the Leader of Opposition in the federal Parliament, had to battle for his political life. Challenged by the Premier of the western region, Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola who was also his deputy, Awolowo’s administrative acumen was put to test. Akintola, backed by the NPC, was at the same time hauled before the Coker Commission of Inquiry and sent to the Justice George Shodeinde Sowemimo court to answer charges of treasonable felony.

    The more Awolowo was buffeted by the NPC-NNDP alliance, the more the Nigerian state tottered and the deep knew that it was a question of time before the boat capsized. The eventual jailing of Awolowo, census of 1963, federal election of 1964 and Western parliamentary crisis of 1965 exposed the immaturity of the political class and their utter lack of grace. It was no surprise when the military seized the occasion on January 15, 1966 to take over power.

    For 13 years, an unprepared and ill-trained military, lacking in the necessary experience, sought to tend the political machine. Again, the result was predictable. One counter coup, one other successful coup d’etat, a failed putsch, a civil war, another failed census and one riveting purge of the public service took the toll on the health of the country. By October 1, 1979 when the military rolled back the tanks to the barracks, the tremors had weakened the foundation of the country.

     

    Shagari’s Second Republic

     

    Alhaji Aliyu Usman Shehu Shagari was a man of modest ambition. He had looked forward to being a Senator in the Second Republic, but was persuaded by the lords of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) to try his hands at managing affairs as the Chief Executive and first Executive President. He contested against five more qualified Nigerians who were, however, made to fail the electoral test to pave the way for the man from Shagari village. The reluctant President could not manage the affairs of a troubled country. It took only 27 months for the experiment to fail.

    Once again, the civilians kissed the dust as the military made a show of power with Gen. Buhari, then a barefaced dictator assuming control of the reins of power on December 31, 1983.

    A palace coup in August 1985 brought Buhari’s Chief of Army Staff, an ever-smiling General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida who later accepted that he was an “evil genius”, to power as he toyed with the fate of the distressed country. Thrice, he altered plans to transfer power to elected leaders and reneged. Eventually, when he held a presidential election, he fell to his own antics as resistance to his game led to his unceremonious exit from power on August 26, 1993. A selected Chief Ernest Shonekan was served power ala carte and pretended to be the Head of an Interim Government until a more determined and invidious General Sani Abacha shoved him aside on November 17. Abacha continued the broken military service and was succeeded on death by General Abdulsalami Abubakar in June 1998. In nine months, General Abdulsalami was out of the scene, leaving a constitution that was more of a labyrinth.

     

    The Fourth Republic

     

    There is a Third Republic, but was there a Third Republic? This remains a puzzle. Could there have been a republic without a constitution and an elected leadership at the centre? Another question. On May 29, 1999, the military handed over to a former military Head of State, General Olusegun Obasanjo, as the new President.

    In 13 years, election has become the mode of recruiting leaders, but democracy is yet to take roots. Three Presidents have been elected. First to take power was Obasanjo who remained in power for eight years. He started as a reluctant leader and was forced to yield place to Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua on May 29, 2007. Yar ‘Adua died prematurely to grant opportunity to the first President of Southsouth descent, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan.

    The history of the Fourth Republic is pot-marked by crises. A major constitutional crisis first ensued with the power game nearly consuming Vice President Atiku Abubakar who chose to enlist the support of the courts to save his career. He won, but the President continued to subjugate the Office of the Vice President. In the National Assembly, the banana peel led to a flurry of activities that led to the fall of a succession of Senate President. From Evans Enwerem to Chuba Okadigbo and Anyim Pius Anyim, three presiding officers graced the leader’s seat in the upper legislative chamber at the centre. The instability was certainly not good for lawmaking.

    Adolphous Wabara started the journey in 2003, but soon lost control and was replaced by a more popular Ken Nnamani who held sway in the second stanza of the Obasanjo tenure because he had learnt lessons from his predecessors, but he had an overbearing and unfriendly President to contend with.

    The House of Representatives had been more relatively stable. Except for the sudden change of Salisu Buhari, who was found to have forged the certificates by which he was elected, the presiding officers had little trouble holding on. Whereas Obasanjo took exception to the Ghali Na’Aba administration, he could not effect a removal. Between 2003 and 2007, it was the turn of Aminu Masari who had a chummy relationship with the President. The post-Obasanjo years, however, saw Patricia Etteh imposed by the departing President. She lasted only five months before falling out of power, and was replaced by Dimeji Bankole. The current Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal has continually been threatened with removal by an unimpressed executive since the preferred candidate of the presidency and ruling party fell to popular forces that installed Tambuwal.

    Could anyone have forgotten the crisis that attended the illness, power tussle and death of Umaru Yar’Adua? What about the strife in the PDP?

    There is danger ahead. What would happen in the run-up to 2015? What would happen if President Jonathan decides to seek another term? Is he constitutionally empowered to do so in view of the constitutional provision that anyone who has been elected twice is barred from contesting? Having been sworn in twice, what is the position of the law? More importantly, would the North accept another spell of being kept out of the powerful seat? What would become of the attempt to alter the structure of the country to cede more powers to the federating units? What is the place of the local governments as the tier of government closer to the people?

    The future is as cloudy as the past. The overriding question is, has the political class learnt enough lessons to keep the military at bay, promote a healthier polity and mobilise support for the quest for development?

    Failed or failing, whither Nigeria? The task of keeping Nigeria out of the list of failed African states is for all. It is beyond leaders and politicians who have proved that they are only good at sharing a shrinking cake.