Tag: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • Examining steady growth in non-oil exports

    Examining steady growth in non-oil exports

    Nigeria’s latest economic report showed that non-oil sector continued to outperform the oil sector, with steady growths across the sectors sustaining strong economic momentum. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report underlines the huge potential of the non-oil sector to achieving government’s ambitious $1 trillion economy. In this report, Deputy Group Business Editor, Taofik Salako, examines how investments in air cargo and ground handling operations have become major boosts for the country’s non-oil exports

    Nigeria’s economy remains on a steady growth path. The latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that the economy further expanded by 3.98 per cent in third quarter 2025. This compared with 3.9 per cent recorded in third quarter 2024. The economy had grown by 4.32 per cent in second quarter 2025.

    The third quarter 2025 growth was driven by both oil and non-oil sectors. Non-oil sector, which contributed 96.6 per cent of total output, rose by 27 basis points to 3.91 per cent in third quarter 2025, an increase of 27 basis points on 3.64 per cent recorded in second quarter 2025. The oil sector, which accounted for about 3.4 per cent of total output, expanded by 5.8 per cent in third quarter 2025, with oil production averaging 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the period.

    The report underlined stronger momentum in agriculture, industry, and services as main drivers of the non-oil sector’s performance. Agricultural output, the largest contributor to the GDP with 31.21 per cent, grew by 3.79 per cent, 97 basis points on 2.82 per cent growth recorded in second quarter 2025. Trade, the second largest contributor with 16.42 per cent, expanded by 1.98 per cent in third quarter 2025 as against 1.29 per cent in second quarter 2025.

    While the GDP report showed broad growths across all the sectors, analysts were unanimous that non-oil sector was the main driver of the overall robust economic outlook. Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa said Nigeria’s economic growth “remains heavily anchored on non-oil sectors, reflecting both the resilience and structural diversification of the Nigerian economy”.

    Coronation Group said the GDP performance reflected strong rebound in agriculture, which helped to offset oil weakness.

    Afrinvest noted that growth in agriculture sector was driven by the main harvest season and cash and food crops export earnings.

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    Coronation said the GDP third quarter 2025 report “reaffirms Nigeria’s gradual transition toward a more diversified, non-oil-driven growth structure, even as macroeconomic conditions remain shaped by inflation, foreign exchange (forex) dynamics, and ongoing policy adjustments”.

    Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf said the overall outlook of the GDP report confirmed that the economy remains firmly on a path of steady recovery and consolidation.

    “The third quarter 2025 performance highlights the positive impact of ongoing economic reforms, especially in stabilising the exchange rate, moderating inflation, improving fiscal conditions, and gradually restoring investor confidence. These macroeconomic gains have strengthened business sentiment and supported activity across key sectors of the economy,” Yusuf said.

    He said the steady growth demonstrated that the government’s reform programme is beginning to generate tangible and measurable outcomes across the economy.

    Exports Processing

    Industry analysts have also highlighted the positive impact of private sector’s investments in air cargo and ground handling operations on the expansive growth in non-oil sector. For instance, since the launch of NAHCO Export Processing and Packaging Centre (NEPPC), owned by Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO) Plc, in July 2025, there has been an upsurge in non-oil exports.

    The NEPPC serves as a state-of-the-art value-added operational centre designed to strengthen Nigeria’s air-export capacity; particularly perishable commodities. Operationally, NEPPC functions as a one-stop export centre, working in close coordination with key regulatory and facilitation agencies such as the Nigeria Agricultural Quarantine Service (NAQS), Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) and other regulatory bodies and the airlines.

    The coordinated process ensures that all shipments passing through the centre adequately scrutinised to be safe, compliant, and export-ready before dispatch. The result has been a measurable reduction in cargo dwell time, minimisation of re-handling, and a consistent improvement in the integrity and traceability of perishable air freight shipments.

    NEPPC thus bridges a long-standing gap in Nigeria’s export logistics value chain, providing the infrastructure and technical support that many small and medium-scale exporters have historically lacked. By centralising export processing and introducing global best practices in handling and inspection, NEPPC not only raises the operational standards of Nigerian exporters to meet international regulatory requirements such as European Union and GCC standards, but also enhances the country’s credibility and competitiveness in the global perishables market.

    NEPPC has transformed the export experience from fragmented and reactive process to integrated, compliant, and efficient system, thus positioning Nigeria to capture greater value from its agro-export sector through reliable air cargo connectivity.

    The International Trade Centre’s (ITC) Export Potential Map recently indicated that Nigeria’s total export potential to the world stands at $7.6 billion, driven primarily by strong opportunities agricultural exports. The ITC report showed that key agricultural produce-cocoa, cashew, urea and coffee, have significant headroom for growth, putting Nigeria in a position to unlock billions of dollars in additional export revenue.

    In the last quarter, NAHCO launched additional multi-million dollar equipment as part of ongoing total refleeting programme. Chairman, Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO) Plc, Dr. Seinde Fadeni said the essence of these equipment was not just for the company alone, but as a strategic investment in Nigeria’s economy.

    The new batch of multi-million-dollar ground support equipment (GSE) were expected to enhance ground handling operations countrywide.

    He reiterated the plan of the board to ensure that the company boasts of more than adequate equipment by the end of this year.

    Fadeni disclosed that the process for acquiring the new equipment started last year, but the company had to endure delivery delays while the manufacturer finishes producing and shipping to Nigeria.

    He said: “The essence of these equipment is not just for the company alone or for the customers, it is also to make life easier for the workers. I can confirm to you that we have a lot in our cap, and we’re bringing them out one by one”.

    Group Managing Director, Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO) Plc, Mr Olumuyiwa Olumekun, said NAHCO has positioned itself at the growth end of the Nigeria’s economy with its expansive investments in export processing and warehouses across the country.

    He noted that the massive NAHCO Export Packaging and Processing Centre in Lagos was a first of its kind in Nigeria and a deliberate strategy for sustainable benefits to all stakeholders.

    According to him, across its operations, NAHCO is adding values to the Nigerian economy and all stakeholders, while ensuring competitive returns to shareholders.

    He said the group remains focused on four areas of sustained growth, equipment re-fleeting, digitisation and environmental social governance (ESG) to ensure better performance in the period ahead.

    He explained that the diversified nature of the group and the onboarding of new business ventures would ensure that the group sustain its growth trajectory.

    “Since transiting from being the foremost ground handling service provider in the entire sub-region to being a diversified, total logistics group, we have been driven by the earnest desire to provide unmatched level of excellent service delivery to our clients. This commitment has become more urgent as we seek to satisfy new demands for excellence and to improve shareholder value,” Olumekun said.

    He noted that NAHCO is a leader in Nigeria’s aviation environmental, social, governance (ESG)’s compliance.

    Experts have noted the need for air cargo hubs to consider green freight initiatives such as sustainable aviation fuels, carbon-offset programmes and efficient handling as global supply-chains increasingly embed ESG metrics. With this, NAHCO is clearly well positioned to drive Nigeria’s non-oil sector sustainably.

    Chief Operating Officer, Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO) Plc, Mr. Didier Stuellet said the huge investments demonstrated the commitment of the company to long-term growth.

    “It’s a huge investment. We’re talking about millions, not in naira, but in dollars, and so this is always difficult for the owners of a company like this to take a decision like this; to take the best decision. This is the best decision for NAHCO,” Stuellet said.

    He said the company would make complete refleeting of equipment happen in the long term, adding that NAHCO is more than halfway into that process.

    He said: “We still have some equipment coming in the coming months, years”.

    Head, Ground Support Equipment (GSE), Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO) Plc, Mr. Charles Karinga noted that the acquisition of nine brand new high loaders by NAHCO was a huge one in the history of Nigerian aviation and that not many ground handling service providers in the region could acquire so many equipment at the same time.

    He described a high loader as a ground support equipment, equipped with a high-reach lift mechanism to load or unload items, cargo, food, drinks, cleared for air transportation.

    “Buying this number of high loaders at this same time is not something that is normally done by many handlers in this clime because they are very expensive.  This is the first time this would be happening,” Karinga said.

    He also pointed out that the brand of the equipment deployed by the company is one of the very best in the industry and would serve the company and its airline clients for several years.

    The increased economic and operational activities have also impacted the corporate results of NAHCO.

    Corporate facts as economic indicators

    The nine-month results of NAHCO for the period ended September 30, 2025 released at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) showed strong growths across sales and profitability, with a 47 per cent increase in net earnings underlining the increased capacity of the leading aviation handling and logistics group to sustain improved returns to shareholders.

    The report showed that total revenue rose by 40.7 per cent from N33.95 billion in third quarter 2024 to N47.76 billion in third quarter 2025, driven by renewed and new business contracts and expanding business activities across the subsidiaries. Gross profit rose by 37.1 per cent to N28.43 billion in third quarter 2025 as against N20.74 billion in third quarter 2024, showing top-line cost efficiency despite domestic and global inflationary pressures.

    Operating profit jumped by 40.8 per cent from N12.88 billion to N18.14 billion, underlining the fact that the performance of the company was driven by business operations rather than financial or structural management. Profit before tax leapt by 46 per cent to N17.94 billion in third quarter 2025 compared with N12.29 billion in third quarter 2024.

    After taxes, net profit stood at N13.46 billion, representing a remarkable increase of 46.6 per cent on N9.18 billion recorded in comparable period of 2024. With this, earnings per share increased simultaneously from N4.71 to N6.91, providing significant headroom for the group to sustain higher dividend payouts, even by the third quarter.

    The balance sheet of the group also remained strong with total assets rising from N46.95 billion in December 2024 to N48.64 billion by September 2025. Shareholders’ funds also increased from N20.04 billion in December 2024 to N21.92 billion in September 2025.

    The third quarter 2025 report places NAHCO, which had increased dividend payout by 134 per cent for the 2024 business year, in stronger stead to sustain its upwardly investor-friendly dividend policy. It should be recalled that NAHCO had distributed N11.58 billion as cash dividends for the 2024 business year, representing a dividend per share of N5.94, compared with N4.95 billion paid for the 2023 business year.

    Yusuf said the government must further enhance Nigeria’s non-oil export competitiveness by providing incentives to producers and operators.

    According to him, government needs to support exporters with reduced financing and production costs while strengthening export logistics, certification, and standards.

    “With continued reforms, targeted investments, and strengthened governance, Nigeria is well-positioned to deliver stronger economic outcomes in the months ahead,” Yusuf said. With the $1 trillion economy agenda anchored on further diversification of the economy through non-oil sector, NAHCO’s investments in air cargo and its nationwide ground handling operations provide sustainable basis to assume not only steady growth in non-oil exports, but increased returns to shareholders of the company.

  • Experts ally fears, challenges over rebasing of GDP

    Experts ally fears, challenges over rebasing of GDP

     Nigeria‘s recent rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures has sparked a wave of discussions, with many questioning what the new numbers truly mean for the economy. While rebasing is a routine statistical process, its impact on economic perception and policy decisions makes it a subject of national interest. At the heart of this exercise is the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which has taken significant steps to ensure that Nigeria’s economic data aligns with current realities.

    Rebasing the GDP is a process where the base year used for economic calculations is updated to a more current period to reflect modern economic structures. The last time Nigeria carried out this exercise was in 2014, when the base year was changed from 1990 to 2010. This latest rebasing shifts the base year from 2010 to 2019, incorporating new sectors and methodological improvements. The essence of this exercise is not to artificially inflate economic figures but to provide a clearer and more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economic activities.

    A major concern that often arises with GDP rebasing is the perception that the new figures are merely statistical adjustments without real economic improvements. However, experts have reassured Nigerians that the rebasing is essential for accurate policy formulation. By incorporating emerging sectors such as fintech, digital services, modular refineries, pension fund administrators, etc, the revised GDP numbers better reflect Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape. This provides a solid foundation for policymakers and investors to make informed decisions.

    Inflation is another critical aspect of economic measurement that has undergone significant adjustments. The latest data from the NBS reveals that Nigeria’s headline inflation reduced to 24.48 percent in January 2025. Food inflation, which is always a major concern due to its direct impact on households, stood at 26.08 percent year-on-year. These figures, though still high, show a decline from previous levels using the old methodology, indicating a positive shift in the measurement metric in the economy.

    The Statistician-General of the Federation and CEO of the NBS, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the reduction in inflation was not a result of any government manipulation but a direct outcome of the rebasing exercise. He noted that the previous inflation calculations were based on outdated data from 2009, which no longer reflected current consumption patterns. Many of the products included in the old inflation basket had become irrelevant, while new essential goods and services were not adequately represented.

    With the rebasing, the NBS has made key adjustments to ensure that inflation figures accurately reflect the economic realities of Nigerians. The methodology has been updated to the latest international standards, particularly by adopting the 2018 version of the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP). This classification system organizes household expenditures into categories, making it easier to track price changes and their impact on consumers.

    One significant improvement in the new system is the inclusion of household expenditure on insurance and financial services, which now carries a weight of 0.5 percent in the overall inflation calculation. Additionally, expenditures on meals away from home have been appropriately classified, ensuring that the data reflects how Nigerians actually spend their money. These refinements ensure that inflation calculations are more precise and representative of real consumer behavior.

    Another critical change is the exclusion of non-monetary expenditures such as own-production, imputed rents, and gifted items. This aligns with international best practices, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should only measure monetary transactions. These adjustments have made the inflation figures more reliable and comparable to global standards.

    Despite concerns about potential political influence, the NBS has assured Nigerians that the rebasing process was carried out with strict adherence to statistical principles. The drop in inflation recorded in January 2025, according to Adeniran, would have occurred even without the rebasing. However, the updated methodology ensures that the figures are more reflective of actual economic conditions, giving policymakers a better tool for decision-making.

    The implications of this rebasing go beyond just statistical adjustments. For businesses and investors, having accurate economic data is crucial for planning and investment decisions. A rebased GDP provides a clearer picture of economic strengths and weaknesses, helping businesses understand market trends and consumer spending behaviors. This can lead to better strategic planning and more targeted investments in high-growth sectors.

    For policymakers, the rebased GDP and inflation figures offer a stronger basis for economic planning. With more accurate data, the government can design better policies to address inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Fiscal and monetary policies can be fine-tuned to target specific sectors, ensuring that interventions yield the desired impact.

    Additionally, international financial institutions and credit rating agencies rely on accurate economic data to assess Nigeria’s economic health. A well-rebased GDP improves the country’s credibility and attractiveness to investors. It signals to the global financial community that Nigeria is committed to transparency and economic modernization.

    While some Nigerians may be skeptical about the new numbers, it is important to understand that rebasing is not about manipulating figures but about aligning economic data with reality. It ensures that policymakers, businesses, and investors are working with the most accurate information available. Over time, the benefits of this rebasing will become evident as the government and private sector leverage the new data to drive economic growth and development.

    Ultimately, the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP and inflation figures is a step in the right direction. It reflects the country’s evolving economic structure and provides a more reliable framework for economic decision-making. While challenges remain, the improved accuracy of economic data will play a crucial role in shaping policies that benefit all Nigerians.

    The Launch

    The rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is not just a statistical exercise; it is a necessary step toward accurately reflecting the country’s economic reality. To ensure that the new GDP figures are both reliable and transparent, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) followed internationally recognized best practices, consulting a wide range of stakeholders and adopting a robust methodology.

    One of the most important decisions in the rebasing process was the selection of 2019 as the new base year. This decision was not made arbitrarily but was based on clear economic considerations. According to global guidelines, including those provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a base year should be a period of relative economic stability. Given the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic turbulence in 2020, 2021, and 2022, these years were deemed unsuitable for accurate economic benchmarking. Instead, 2019 was selected as it represented a period of stable economic activity before the shocks of the pandemic, making it a suitable reference point for recalibrating Nigeria’s economic measurements.

    Another crucial aspect of the rebasing exercise was ensuring that all relevant economic activities were captured. The NBS collected sector-specific administrative data covering various industries, ensuring that the new GDP figures reflect the true size and structure of Nigeria’s economy. The inclusion of new and emerging sectors such as fintech, e-commerce, and digital services further strengthens the credibility of the rebased GDP figures. These industries have grown significantly in recent years, and their contribution to the economy needs to be properly accounted for in economic assessments.

    The credibility of the rebasing exercise also hinges on the quality and transparency of the process. To achieve this, the NBS engaged in extensive consultations with a wide range of stakeholders, ensuring that all relevant parties had a say in the process. These engagements were not limited to government agencies but extended to development partners, private sector experts, analysts, media practitioners, and academic institutions. By involving a diverse range of voices, the NBS ensured that the rebasing was conducted in a manner that met global best practices and addressed local concerns.

    The rebasing process involved numerous stakeholder engagements, sensitization workshops, and presentations. Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) were actively involved, alongside members of the Economic Management Team and the National Consultative Committee on Statistics. Development partners such as the IMF, World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) also played a role in shaping the rebasing exercise. These international organizations provided technical support and guidance, ensuring that Nigeria’s GDP rebasing aligns with the latest global standards.

    Additionally, targeted workshops were held for critical stakeholders, including economic analysts, media practitioners, and academia. The inclusion of these groups in the process was vital in ensuring that the rebased figures would be well understood and accepted by the public. By fostering transparency and inclusivity, the NBS aimed to build trust in the new GDP numbers and dispel any misconceptions about the rebasing process.

    GDP rebasing is widely recognized as a crucial statistical exercise for any nation. It is not merely about presenting larger GDP figures but about obtaining a more accurate estimate of the economy’s true size and structure. Without a properly rebased GDP, economic policies may be based on outdated or incomplete information, leading to inefficient decision-making. For this reason, the success of the rebasing exercise required the full commitment and cooperation of all stakeholders, from government agencies to private sector participants and international organizations.

    With the extensive work done by the NBS and its partners, the newly rebased GDP figures are expected to provide the best possible estimate of Nigeria’s current economic structure. The updated numbers will serve as a valuable tool for policymakers, investors, and development partners, offering a clearer understanding of where the Nigerian economy stands and where it is headed.

    Understanding the Importance

    Rebasing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is not just about revising numbers; it is a crucial exercise that ensures the country’s economic data reflects current realities. Over time, economies evolve, with some sectors growing rapidly while others shrink or become obsolete. Without a proper rebasing exercise, economic data may fail to capture these changes accurately, leading to policies that do not align with the country’s true economic structure.

    One of the key reasons GDP rebasing is important is that it helps account for structural changes in the economy. Nigeria’s economy today is vastly different from what it was a decade ago. The rise of the technology sector, including fintech, digital services, and e-commerce, has significantly altered the country’s economic landscape. However, if GDP calculations are based on outdated data that do not account for these new and growing industries, economic assessments become misleading. The rebasing exercise ensures that these evolving sectors are fully incorporated into national economic statistics, providing a clearer picture of where the economy is headed.

    Another major benefit of rebasing is that it enhances evidence-based decision-making. Economic policies should be guided by accurate data, allowing the government to allocate resources to sectors that have the highest potential for growth and development. Without updated figures, policymakers may continue directing resources toward industries that no longer contribute as significantly to GDP, while neglecting emerging sectors that drive future economic growth. By rebasing the GDP, Nigeria’s government and private sector can make better-informed decisions that align with the country’s actual economic strengths and weaknesses.

    Beyond domestic policy, GDP rebasing also plays a role in enhancing Nigeria’s economic profile on the global stage. International investors, financial institutions, and development agencies rely on GDP data to assess a country’s economic strength and investment potential. When GDP is rebased to reflect the most recent economic activities, it provides a more accurate representation of Nigeria’s true economic size, which can boost investor confidence. A larger and more accurately measured GDP signals that Nigeria’s economy is growing, diverse, and capable of supporting new investments.

    A clear example of how GDP rebasing can significantly impact a country’s economic standing is Nigeria’s last major rebasing exercise in 2014. Before the rebasing, Nigeria’s GDP was based on 1990 as the base year, which meant that many of the country’s economic changes over the previous two decades were not properly reflected in official data. When Nigeria rebased its GDP to 2010, the country’s GDP jumped from $270 billion to $510 billion, instantly making it Africa’s largest economy. This dramatic change was not due to sudden economic growth but rather the inclusion of previously overlooked sectors such as telecommunications, entertainment. The 2014 rebasing highlighted the importance of regularly updating economic metrics to provide a more accurate picture of a nation’s economic performance.

    The 2025 rebasing builds on the lessons of the past by further updating GDP calculations to capture even more aspects of Nigeria’s modern economy. One of the most significant additions in this rebasing exercise is the full incorporation of digital economic activities, including e-commerce and fintech. In recent years, Nigeria has become a hub for digital innovation, with startups and tech firms attracting billions of dollars in investments. However, if the contribution of these sectors is not properly accounted for, the true size of Nigeria’s economy could be underestimated. The inclusion of digital services ensures that Nigeria’s GDP reflects the realities of a 21st-century economy, giving a more precise measure of economic output and productivity.

    Challenges of Rebasing

    While GDP rebasing is a necessary and beneficial exercise, it is not without its challenges. One of the main difficulties is that rebasing can be time-consuming and resource-intensive. Gathering accurate data across multiple sectors, updating classification methodologies, and ensuring international standards are met require significant effort and coordination among various stakeholders. The process involves engaging with ministries, development agencies, private sector players, and international organizations, making it a complex and lengthy undertaking.

    Another challenge is that rebasing may reveal uncomfortable economic truths that could unsettle markets. When GDP is recalculated based on new data, it may show that certain sectors are underperforming, or that economic growth has been slower than previously estimated. These revelations, while necessary for better policymaking, can sometimes lead to uncertainty among investors or prompt difficult economic discussions. For example, a rebasing exercise may indicate that some industries are shrinking, requiring urgent government intervention to support affected businesses and workers. However, while such revelations may cause short-term concerns, they ultimately help ensure that economic policies are based on the most accurate and up-to-date information.

    Despite these challenges, the benefits of rebasing far outweigh the difficulties. A properly rebased GDP allows for more effective policy decisions, better investment planning, and a clearer understanding of Nigeria’s economic trajectory. As Nigeria completes its latest rebasing exercise, the updated figures will provide critical insights that will shape the country’s economic policies for years to come.

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    Reacting to the GDP Rebasing, Mr Gbolade Idakolo, Managing Director/CEO SD&D Capital Management Limited said “The recent rebasing of the GDP has shown a significant decline in inflation figures as well as food inflation. These new figures are however not in congruence with reality.

    “The rebased GDP has shown positive activities in all the critical sectors of the economy and gives the government and investors alike a tool to assess the economic performance of the country. Overall, it gives a positive outlook that can testify to significant changes being experienced in the economy and also put our economy in proper perspective with other economies around the world.”

    Dr. Samson Galadima Simon, Chief Economist at ARKK Economics and Data Limited, Abuja in his reaction said “The GDP figure is expected to balloon after the rebasing as structural changes in the economy will be fully captured. The last time it was done, GDP went from $270 Billion to $510 Billion.  Rebased GDP will reflect the true composition of the Nigerian economy as well as capture sectors that have gained momentum like digital economy.”

    He added that “after the rebasing, the Nigerian economy is expected to become larger, this will imply brighter chance of Nigeria achieving its $1 trillion status by 2023. It will also mean higher per capita for the Nigerian people. It will mean lower debt to GDP ratio and lower Revenue to GDP ratio.

    In its report, Renaissance Capital Africa said Nigeria’s debt levels appear to be relatively okay using the International Monetary Fund (IMF) standards. It however warned that the conventional IMF measures are not a true reflection of debt sustainability.

     Pan-African Credit Rating Agency, Agusto & Co, has said that increased crude oil production can help Nigeria resolve the twin challenges of inflation and volatility in the foreign exchange market.

    This was disclosed by Jimi Ogbobine, Head of Agusto Consulting, a subsidiary of Agusto & Co, during his presentation at the 2025 Economic Roundtable to discuss Nigeria’s economic trajectory, held recently in Lagos.

    The event held in honour of its founder, the late Olabode Agusto, provided an in-depth analysis of trends, policy developments, and investment opportunities shaping Nigeria’s economic landscape. Discussions explored banking, finance, manufacturing, energy, and regulatory reforms critical to business and investment growth in 2025.

    While analysing the Nigerian economy, Ogbobine listed 10 key areas of uncertainties, including debt sustainability, oil sector performance, global energy dynamics, global economic outlook, energy transition and subsidy reforms, sociopolitical instability, food security and agriculture resilience, government fiscal performance (revenue and spending priorities), exchange rate management strategy, and inflation and interest rate management strategy.

  • Tinubu hails Q3 GDP growth, vows to improve living standards

    Tinubu hails Q3 GDP growth, vows to improve living standards

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has expressed his excitement over Nigeria’s economic growth, as revealed in the newly released third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). 

    The report showed that the economy grew by 3.46% during the third quarter, surpassing both last quarter’s performance and projected estimates.

    In his reaction, contained in a statement issued on Monday by his Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications, Sunday Dare, President Tinubu said: “I am excited by the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics that our economy grew in the third quarter more than last quarter and even beyond projected estimates.”

    While welcoming the encouraging figures, the President emphasized that more work lies ahead to translate the growth into tangible benefits for Nigerians. 

    “The latest figure also shows the much work that needs to be done. We won’t rest until Nigerians feel the positive impacts in their pockets and experience a better living standard,” he noted.

    The President reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to the welfare of citizens, highlighting that economic growth must lead to improved livelihoods. 

    “My administration remains committed to the welfare of our people,” he added.

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    The President highlighted that the latest GDP figures are evidence of progress toward his administration’s ambitious economic agenda, which includes achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030. 

    He stressed that ongoing reforms, aimed at enhancing fiscal management and fostering equitable wealth distribution, are beginning to yield positive results despite initial challenges.

    According to the NBS, the GDP growth was driven by key sectors such as Agriculture (28.65%), ICT (16.35%), Trade (14.78%), Manufacturing (8.21%), Crude Oil (5.57%), Finance and Insurance (5.51%), and Real Estate (5.43%). 

    Tinubu emphasized that these sectors reflect the vibrancy and potential of Nigeria’s economy, particularly as it continues to recover from past shocks and structural inefficiencies.

    The President underscored the significance of the proposed tax reforms, which aim to ease the tax burden on small businesses and promote equity in revenue allocation across states. 

    He noted that the reforms seek to address disparities caused by the “headquarters effect,” ensuring a fairer distribution of resources that benefits more Nigerians, particularly those in underserved areas.

    Tinubu reiterated his administration’s focus on rebasing the economy by 2025 to better capture the transformative changes in various sectors. 

    He assured Nigerians that these efforts will place the country on the path to shared prosperity, with a greater emphasis on inclusivity and improved living standards.

    “President Bola Tinubu has assured Nigerians of better economic output as the economy continues to expand following the newly released third quarter Gross Domestic Product report by the National Bureau of Statistics. 

    “According to the NBS, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.46%, compared to the 3.19% growth recorded in the second quarter. 

    “The growth in GDP shows that President Tinubu’s quest for a more robust boost in the economy and, by extension, a better standard of living for all Nigerians is on course.

    “The 3.46% growth indicates Nigeria is recovering from the reforms’ unintended effects.  

    “President Tinubu said his administration has not and will never forget his promise of a $1 trillion economy by 2030. He assured that once the economy is rebased by early 2025 to capture its dynamism and record significant changes that have occurred in different sectors, the country will be on its way to shared prosperity.

    “The latest GDP growth in the third quarter is driven by key sectors such as Agriculture, Transport, Education, Health, Real Estate, Finance and Insurance, ICT, Trade, and Manufacturing. 

    “This performance once again shows that the reforms embarked upon by the Tinubu administration to reposition the economy and ensure better fiscal management are beginning to yield fruits.

    “The proposed tax reforms also indicate the administration’s resolve to reduce the tax burden on small businesses and spread prosperity to the poor. The new Tax regime seeks to promote equity by reducing what is known as the headquarters effect—a situation where states where company headquarters are based get more benefits because their taxes for the whole nation are remitted—in favour of spatial and demographic equity.

    “The top contributing sectors to GDP in Q3 2024 are Agriculture 28.65%, ICT 16.35%, Trade 14.78%, Manufacturing 8.21%, Crude Oil 5.57%, Finance & Insurance 5.51% and Real Estate 5.43%”, the statement said.

  • Expert urges Fed Govt to ensure innovative transport system

    THE founder of National Association of Approved Freight Forwarders (NAAFF), Dr. Boniface Aniebonam, has urged the Minister of Transportation, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, to ensure creativity, innovation and digital thinking in shaping transportation policies and actions.

    Aniebonam said this at the 25th convocation, matriculation and 35th anniversary of the Institute of Transport and Management Technology in Badagry, Lagos.

    The event, tagged: Transport Sector’s Contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria: Problems and Prospect, was attended by over 100 graduates from different academic programmes.

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    Awards were given to outstanding persons in the Transportation sector.

    The freight forwarder stressed that a paradigm shift in innovative solutions to transportation problems and the need for increased contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria were imperative.

    “Integrated and coordinated multi-modal transportation are keys for sustainable transportation. Seamless inter-modality is a key vision for transportation mobility. Translating this vision into reality require standardised systems, coordinated and integrated different modes,” he said.

    Aniebonam noted that for transport to contribute more to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), genuine policy commitment, tremendous and sustained efforts would have to be invested in the sector.

     

     

  • Economy up 2.01 per cent in Q1 2019

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.01 per cent (year-on-year), in real terms, in the first quarter of this year, a report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Monday has shown.

    The first quarter 2019 growth rate represented an increase of 0.12 per cent points when compared to first quarter 2018 which recorded real GDP growth rate of 1.89 per cent.

    However, the real GDP growth rate declined by -0.38 per cent points when compared to fourth quarter 2018 when the growth rate was 2.38 per cent.

    Read Also: Nigeria, not an oil producing economy

    “Aggregate GDP stood at N31,794,085.85 million in nominal terms. This aggregate was higher than in the first quarter of 2018 which recorded N28,438,604.23 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 11.80 per cent,” he said.

    The report said  aggregate was, however, lower than in the preceding quarter of N35,230,607.63 million, by -9.75 per cent. The nominal GDP growth rate in first quarter of 2019 was higher than the rate recorded in first quarter 2018 by 2.54 per cent  points.

  • Why Russia, Nigeria collaborate on nuclear energy

    Russian and Nigerian Government collaborated to build nuclear energy in Nigeria in order to help the country reduce power outages, improve industrial capacity and further grow its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), ROSATOM Central and Southern Africa Chief Executive officer, Dimitry Shornikov, has said.

    ROSATOM is Russian Government-owned nuclear energy firm, and it specialises in the production and generation of nuclear electricity for countries in Europe and others.

    In an interview with The Nation in Lagos, Shornikov said Nigeria’s power is one of the poorest in Africa, adding that the two power sources namely gas and hydro are unable to produce electricity megawatts, the country requires for growth.  According to him, a lot of misconceptions surround the production of nuclear energy, noting that it has been proved over time that nuclear energy is the safest of all energies produced globally.

    Nuclear energy, Shornikov said, is highly regulated and controlled, a development, which left credence to the fact that it is well managed and not prone to dangers contrary to the notions held by many Nigerians.

    He said the two forms of electricity are not affordable, adding that the development informed the decision by ROSATOM to partner with the Federal Government on how it can provide nuclear electricity in the country.

    Shornikov said: “When compared to the production of hydro and gas electricity with that of nuclear energy, they are expensive and unreliable. These problems are not present in nuclear energy.”

    He said it would be difficult to provide the cost of producing nuclear energy in Nigeria because sizes and configurations of the nuclear plants are not the same. This is not like gas turbine that is manufactured to generate a particular number of megawatts (Mw) of electricity.

    “There are lots of variables that need to be considered in the process of configuring nuclear energy plants. The variables are in relation to the size of the plant, the volume of energy the plant would produce,” he added.

    He said though the cost of producing nuclear may be prohibitive, its benefits outweigh the cost because it is environmental friendly, reliable and regular.

    Shornikov said: “The negotiations for the establishment of science and nuclear energy centre between Nigeria and Russia has reached an advance stage. The two parties are working together on how to proceed on the issue of establishing the centre in Nigeria.

    “On safety issues, one of the misconceptions associated with nuclear energy is lack of safety. My aim is to compare it with air travelling. Most people see air travelling as the most dangerous. However, it is the safest in the world. It is the most regulated and controlled sources of energy. There is the need to educate stakeholders on the importance of nuclear energy, brief them that it is the safest.

    “On cooperation with Nigerian Government, it started in 2009 but it is in 2017 that we signed an agreement on it, which set the tone for further discussion on production of nuclear energy and its plants.

    “Electricity stability and regularity is a big issue in Nigeria. There are concerns. There are power outages, which affect the country’s GDP. One source of energy that is available is nuclear energy. It is environmentally friendly compared to gas power.

    “When we talk about cost of generating nuclear energy, obviously it is high because there are variables that need to be considered. These variables lie in the configuration of the plant. On the issue of cost, it depends on the configuration of the size of the plant and the volume of nuclear energy expected to be generated.”

  • ‘Nigeria loses more than annual budget on road crashes’

    Stakeholders on road safety in the country have said that Nigeria loses more than its annual budget on road crashes every year.

    National focal person UN-Decade of Action on Road Safety and Injury Prevention, Nigeria Dr. Sydney Ibeanusi revealed that Nigeria can increase its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by reducing road crashes.

    Ibeanusi said that other countries like India and Tanzania have recorded an increase in their GDP by reducing road crashes in their country.

    He said this in Abuja, at the World day of remembrance for road traffic victims 2018. Themed ‘Roads have stories, for happy endings, lets improve road safety.’

    His words, “Development depends on getting road safety right, it has happened in other countries, India was able to increase her GDP by 22% by ensuring that they reduced road crashes by 50%, even Tanzania have been able to do that, they increased their GDP by 7.2%, it can be done in Nigeria.

    “We lose more than our annual budget, every year on road crashes, if for instance our annual budget was N8.3trl this year, we lose more than that every year on the roads from road crashes both from the people that died and the survivals who are unable to work and of course the indirect consequences are huge with people losing their breadwinners with huge social consequences.”

    Read Also: My plans for Nigeria clear, on course, says Buhari

    Minister of State for Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire at the occasion said that the Federal Government has adopted a policy where the bills of emergency treatments cases in hospitals are paid for by the government.

    His words, “On the side of the government is the prompt response and appropriate treatment of victims of road crashes. The Federal Ministry of Health has lunched a policy of the National Emergency Medical Services and Ambulance Scheme to coordinate all the medical emergencies and ambulance services in the country, it is called NEMSAS.

    “It has been approved by the National Council on Health and to be inaugurated soon. The role and term of reference is to ensure that residents have access to prompt medical services. In the basic health care provision fund of the Federal Government is reserved for emergency medical care and the NEMSAS committee will be responsible for the fund.

    “The fund will be used to reduce loss of lives that occur when people are brought to the hospital and they dont have money on them. The hope is that the fund will offer treatment free of charge for every person that is brought in for the first two days until they are stabilized, so nobody will be left unattended.

    “Therefore the idea of payment before service in an emergency needs to be addressed and cancelled so that every one will be taken care of.”

  • Nigeria targets 4 million barrel per day production – DPR

    …Says 2.98 billion barrels stranded in Nigeria oil province

    The Federal Government has unveiled plans to produce 4 million barrel of oil daily by 2020, it was learnt on Wednesday.

    The Executive Director, Upstream Monitoring Division, Mrs. Pat Fasali  Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) made this disclosure in the DPR Half Hour on Radio Nigeria. 

    According to her, about 2.98 barrel of oil are stranded and undeveloped in the Nigeria’s oil province. She added that the country also has 6 trillion cubic feet of gas that has not been developed. 

     The Federal Government, she said, has targeted to raised the volume of its oil reserve to 40billion barrel by 2020.

    She said that: “There are so many things that are stranded in the Nigerian oil province. And I can tell you that about 2.98billion barrels are stranded and not yet developed. 

    “Even for gas we still have 6 trillion cubic feet not developed. And government has the aspiration that it wants to have a reserve of 40 billion barrel by 2020. And that it wants to produce 4 million barrel per day. If we don’t make them to unify and start production, we will not achieve government’s aspiration.”

    Commenting on the impact of the activities of the DPR on the nation’s economy, she said that oil is the economic mainstay of the country as it contributes about 80% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

    For the organization to sustain its contribution, she said it has to ensure that it carries out effective regulation of the licensing round, violation, penalty, permit and processing fees to sustain the revenue. 

    Read Also: NBS: Nigeria’s inflation increases

    Speaking, Executive Director Operation, Mr. Babajide Fasina, said that hitherto, the sector had the International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating but there are now indigenous companies operating the marginal oil fields. 

    He disclosed that “now we have 31 marginal oil companies of which about 16 are producing.”

    Fasina the organization is making frantic efforts at reducing the cost of oil production from $27/barrel to $18 per barrel. 

    He added that the DPR is engaging the oil companies to ensure that the country derives more benefits from oil production. 

  • Judiciary, Security sector reform targeted at growing Lagos GDP- Ambode

    …Osinbajo, CJN Urge Judges to Be Above Board, Uphold Ethical Standards

     

    Lagos State Governor, Mr Akinwunmi Ambode on Monday said the major reforms being implemented in both judiciary and security sectors in the State were targeted at creating a sound pedestal for residents to be productive and in turn boost the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the State.

    Ambode, who spoke at the first biannual lecture of the Lagos State Judiciary held at City Hall in Lagos Island, said the major reforms in the sectors were already contributing to the growth of the economy, assuring that no effort would be spared in ensuring the success of the various initiatives.

    The Governor particularly commended the State’s Chief Judge, Justice Opeyemi Oke and the Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Mr Adeniji Kazeem, saying he was in firm support of the reforms being championed by the duo in the judicial sector.

    “I want to say that I am very proud of the judicial sector reforms going on in the State; we are very proud of the work being done by the Chief Judge and the combination of the efforts being carried out by the Attorney General and Chief Judge is something we need to support.

    “It is now very obvious that some major reforms are going on in the judicial sector and we are very proud as the executive arm of government to support the judicial sector reforms which we are also complementing with our security sector reforms.

    “In totality, the reforms are aimed at improving the economy of Lagos and grow the GDP and what is going on in the judicial sector is significant and we are very proud of it,” the Governor said.

    While lauding the initiative of the lecture which was intended to engender thought provoking discussions and provide platform for stakeholders to assess performance of the judiciary and as well broaden the frontiers of justice delivery, Ambode called for the lecture to be held annually.

    He said it was important for the intellectual conversation around the lecture to be held regularly in order to bring about practicable solutions to issues in the sector.

    In opening remarks, Justice Oke lauded Governor Ambode for supporting the reforms being implemented in the State Judiciary, describing him as a man of vision who is known for pursuit of excellence and international best standards in every area of his administration.

    She said the lecture, which is the first of its kind not only in Lagos but in other jurisdictions, was designed to facilitate closer interaction between judiciary and the bar both in terms of practice and continuing legal education.

    The CJ, who reeled out some of the reforms being implementing including judicial ethics and administration, old cases above 20 years elimination programme, designation of special offences court, sexual offences court, small claims court, child rights law and regulations, prison decongestion effort, among others, said the lecture was one of the initiatives put together to advance justice delivery in the State.

    On his part, Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo represented by Special Assistant to the President on Economic Crimes, Mr. Biodun Aikomo, said in view of the strategic role occupied by judicial officers in the country, it was important for them to always be above board and uphold ethical standards.

    “Judges must be beyond reproach; they must be above board; they must abide by ethics and standards of the profession and dispense justice without rightly,” he said.

    Speaking on the theme: “Judicial Standards, Integrity, Respect and Public Perception: A Comparative Analysis From Independence In 1960 Into The Present Millennium,” the guest speaker at the lecture and Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Walter Onnoghen admonished judges to refrain from commenting from commenting on matters of public interest through social media blogging sites such as Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, among others.

    The CJ said judges must also ensure the removal of their personal information online, and as well desist from uploading pictures of their holiday and personal activities on social media.

    He said judges “who are desirous of discussing public matters on the social media can only do so without revealing their identity,” adding that the interactive design of the internet blogging sites made it important for judges not to descend into such arena.

    Onnoghen, represented by Mr Olabode Rhodes-Vivour, Justice of the Supreme Court, also called for the study of law in the University to be made a second degree in view of the declining standards of education in Nigeria, while lawyers who wanted to be appointed into the bench, in addition to 10 years post call requirement, should also be mandated to have post graduate diploma in law.

    Such reforms, according to the CJN who traced the trajectory of the Nigerian judiciary since 1960, were important factors that can further help to advance justice delivery.

    Read Also: Ambode commended as rights group inspects projects

  • We are passionate in fighting corruption – Osinbajo

    Vice President Yemi Osinbajo on Friday said the present administration has integrity and would continue to prevent corruption at all levels.

    He spoke in Ondo town during the inauguration of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) clinic.

    Osinbajo said “We will continue to expand social investment schemes as income increases.

    “The difference between us and any previous government is that we are not going to steal the money. We spend the money on the people, that’s the difference.”

    “We will continue to invest in states through the Social Investment Programme. But as our income increases we intend to improve and continue to expand.”

    “Indeed, in the last three years, we have demonstrated an abiding commitment to facilitating genuine efforts by all the States of the Federation to attract investment, to diversify their economic base, and create jobs and economic opportunity for their people.”

    “So far, we have held 13 editions of the MSMEs Clinic in various states across all the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria, and we are today holding the 14th edition of the MSMEs Clinic here in Ondo state.

    “This is further demonstration of our commitment in ensuring that small businesses, market women, artisans have several opportunities to do business successfully.”

    “It is of course well known that MSMEs have tended to be neglected in this country over the years, as a result of competing priorities as well as a tendency to discount their contribution to the national economy.

    “As individual units, small businesses may appear to be slight, but together they account for as much as 50 percent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP, and over 80 percent of our labour force”.

    Osinbajo said the MSMEs Clinics were conceived with this in mind; designed to bring government closer to the people by assembling in one place all the regulatory agencies whose work affects the business experience of small and medium scale businesses.

    According to him, “This affords MSMEs an efficient platform to which they can bring their business-related problems for the intervention of regulatory agencies for solution, outside the formal and sometimes intimidating offices of these agencies.

    “At the same time, gaining access to all the agencies in one place saves MSMEs the travel time and cost of having to seek out different agencies”.

    The VP noted that since the launch of this programme last year, it has been easier for small businesses to access funds, because the Bank of Industry (BOI), Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) and the Nigerian Export and Import Bank (NEXIM) .

    Osinbajo said they have used the Clinics to increase awareness of their products, and also make available credit to participating businesses.