- By Hakeem Jamiu
In his seminal work, Political Order in Changing Societies (1968), Professor Samuel P. Huntington argues that political order is essential for societal development. He emphasises that strong, adaptable political institutions are necessary to manage conflicts and meet growing societal demands during periods of rapid change. Huntington warns that failure to adapt swiftly to societal shifts often results in political decline and instability (Huntington, S.P. 1968, Political Order in Changing Societies, Yale University Press). These insights offer a valuable perspective for analysing the recent palace coup in Guinea-Bissau, a country on the verge of greater unrest.
Between September 24 – 26, I was in Guinea-Bissau for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) pre-summit as the lead facilitator nominated by the Amandla Institute for Policy and Leadership Advancement (AIPLA). During this time, I predicted that political upheaval was imminent. It was no surprise, therefore, when, on November 26, a palace coup took place, leading to the forced evacuation of former President Goodluck Jonathan, head of the West African Elders Forum Election Observation Mission. He described the coup as a “ceremonial coup,” an unusual act where President Umaro Embaló himself announced the coup, despite claiming to be under arrest. This move was clearly staged to prevent the announcement of election results, ultimately undermining democracy in the country.
Embalo’s strategy to consolidate power began long before the coup. He had previously excluded his main challenger, PAIGC’s Domingos Simões Pereira, from the electoral process through judicial manipulation by the Supreme Court, which barred Pereira from contesting the election. Pereira, a former prime minister, had supported the independent candidacy of lawyer Fernando Dias. Despite his official term ending on February 27, 2025, Embaló remained in office, citing a different inauguration date. His controversial decision to seek re-election, despite initial promises not to, prompted public protests, which were suppressed by force, with activists arrested and opposition movements restricted.
The road to Bissau, however, was not just fraught with political instability but also physical danger. As I journeyed from Zinguinchor to Bissau, a typically two-hour trip extended to eight hours due to the dilapidated roads, squeezed between rising rivers. The road was perilous, especially when we learned of the armed insurgents operating along the route. The driver, having initially misled us about the road’s condition, almost abandoned us at the Senegalese border. Fortunately, immigration officials ensured we continued. Later, it was revealed that the road’s poor condition had been intentionally ill-maintained to prevent insurgents from easily reaching the capital.
Despite the country’s dire economic situation, with infrastructure deterioration and widespread poverty, the people of Bissau maintained a remarkable sense of joy. Young men and women danced in the streets at 3 am, while others gathered at the hotel we stayed in, socialising late into the night. These youthful social gatherings reflected a society aware of global trends, including political unrest, despite being influenced by their leader’s poverty politics.
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The summit, held at the Royal Hotel in Bissau from September 24 – 26, focused on the future of ECOWAS, marking its 50th anniversary. The theme, “Political Stability, Peace, and Security in West Africa,” seemed ironically prescient. The dialogue, involving civil society, youth, and security experts, examined the challenges facing ECOWAS, particularly addressing Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG). My prediction that Guinea-Bissau would face political turmoil was echoed by ECOWAS’s General Ojabo, who remarked that his troops were primarily tasked with “guard duties at the homes of politicians,” reflecting the mistrust between Guinea-Bissau’s political class and its military. “The minute ECOWAS pulls out from GB, there will be chaos,” he warned, a grim foreshadowing of what was to come.
The coup led by General Horta Inta-A, just one day before the announcement of presidential election results, claimed that it was necessary to prevent “narcotics traffickers” from manipulating the election. Both President Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias claimed victory, with Dias seeking asylum at the Nigerian embassy due to credible threats to his life. The people’s resolve for change had been underestimated by Embaló, who believed he could easily eliminate opposition. This turned out to be a grave miscalculation, and the coup was a direct result of the president’s failure to meet the people’s expectations. As Huntington’s theory suggests, political instability often arises when rising societal expectations are unmet, leading to frustration and disorder.
ECOWAS, having strongly condemned the coup, has suspended Guinea-Bissau from its decision-making bodies and is advocating for the restoration of constitutional order. Meanwhile, the African Union (AU) has also suspended Guinea-Bissau from its activities, calling for respect for the electoral process. The United Nations has urged restraint and respect for the rule of law. The coup in Guinea-Bissau presents another challenge to ECOWAS’s credibility, especially as the region has seen an alarming rise in military takeovers. The coup belt, stretching across West Africa, is increasingly a source of concern.
Guinea-Bissau, with its fragile political and economic situation, faces considerable instability. With a population of only two million and a per capita GDP of $670, the country ranks among the poorest in the world. Around 70% of its population live below the poverty line, with limited access to essential services such as healthcare, roads, education, and sanitation. As the political crisis deepens, there are concerns that drug trafficking could intensify, further destabilising the region.
For ECOWAS, the challenge is clear: it must persist in applying diplomatic pressure on the coup leaders to restore constitutional order. Military force alone is insufficient; what is needed is a sustained diplomatic strategy supported by respected statesmen. ECOWAS needs to rediscover its role as a facilitator of West African peace, rather than an end in itself. The organisation must act consistently and enhance its operational capabilities to tackle the root causes of instability. Unconstitutional government changes are not merely political anomalies but symptoms of systemic governance failures that must be addressed to prevent further crises across the region. The time for action is now.
•Rt. Hon. Jamiu, PhD, an ECOWAS Facilitator, writes from Ado-Ekiti.
