The October 7 attack on Israel by over a thousand Hamas Palestinian militants has so far, even in the absence of ground offensive into Hamas base in Gaza, cost nearly four thousand lives. The estimates are about 1,350 killed in Israel, and 2,200 (and counting) killed in Gaza in reprisal attacks. More than 11,000 have been injured. But far beyond the casualty figures, the share scale of the surprise Hamas offensive, and the execution of civilians and infants in a world where social media amplifies and sometimes valorises violence, may have cost Hamas as much as it believed it had gained. Middle Eastern countries and other militant groups which should have rallied enthusiastically to its cause have, on account of the details and images that came out of the attacks on Israeli Kibbutzim, been less eager to lend massive and unfettered support. In contrast, nearly all of Western Europe and the United States have been so horrified by what took place on October 7 that they have not thought twice about rallying behind the Israeli banner.
Yet, Israel has not always been a model of exemplary behavior in the region, a fact that accounted for the previously uneasy relationship between Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and United States president Joe Biden. Before the Hamas attack, Mr Netanyahu’s governing coalition had been ultra-right, leading to the steady expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, police operations on Al-Aqsa mosque, and bloody forays into Gaza. Decades of war of attrition had turned Gaza into what some Palestinian activists and other global security analysts describe as an open-air prison. Having spurned a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian crisis about five times, preferring instead the extermination of Jews in Palestine, particularly with the encouragement of Iran, the competing Palestinian authorities in Gaza and the West Bank have watched helplessly and frustratingly as Israel hardened its position over four or five Israeli-Gaza wars.
The Hamas attack of two Saturdays ago must be understood from the perspective of the social and economic conditions in Gaza, the frustrations over the long stalemate, and the periodic shelling of the strip that follows every missile attack on Israel. Communities in most parts of the Middle East and some other parts of the world first erupted in joy on learning about the success of the surprise attacks, and how Hamas gave Israel a bloody nose, not to talk of the about 150 Israeli hostages ferried back into Gaza. While nearly all Arab countries are still thrilled by the Hamas invasion, there is great apprehension as to what would happen next, especially with the determined steps taken by the US to forestall a widening of the war. Iran has been somewhat ambivalent about the attacks, while still expressing general support for the Palestinian and Hamas cause. But the rest of the Middle East has been chastened by the deployment of brutal medieval tactics and methods by the militants. The world seems to be saying that missile killings and aircraft bombings, while they cause death and destruction, are nevertheless not the same as massacres and executions. Worse, the Hamas tactics also galvanised the West against the militants whom they describe as terrorists.
The days ahead are ominous should Israel embark on a ground offensive. While siege and targeted probing attacks would do the job more effectively, boots on the ground appear to be more popular in Israel. They have the hardware and the financial muscle to carry out the campaign; but it will be bloody and perhaps less efficient, without the possibility of bringing about a desirable outcome in the long term. Hamas and Islamic Jihad may both be destroyed and expelled from Gaza, but it will not be the end of militancy in the region, either in terms of missile or terror attacks from Gaza or through Intifada in Israel, as long as the predisposing factors remain. And as long as Israeli politics remains fractionalised, working out a peace deal may become increasingly complicated, especially with hardliners like Mr Netanyahu remaining in office, and the geopolitical significance of Jerusalem continuing to tantalise the world.
Hamas may have introduced an unprecedented chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian war, overall, however, many analysts are pessimistic that a solution can be found to this extensive and regional battle for a piece of estate not longer than 20 minutes journey from one end to the other. It is not a religious war, contrary to what many people think, though Christians have tended to back Judaistic Israel, and Muslims back the Palestinians. There are debates about the histories of the original inhabitants of the land, with the Jews insisting they predated the Arab Palestinians in that corner of the world. And while both sides to the conflict in Palestine share in the blame, there are also other strategic considerations and calculations complicating the crisis. Indeed, some analysts believe that the precipitate action of Hamas militants two Saturdays ago may have been designed to truncate the impending Saudi Arabia /Israel peace deal gloated over by Mr Netanyahu just weeks ago at the UNGA, a deal Iran and Hamas clearly objurgated. The Middle East is a veritable smorgasbord of hard line politics and ambitions, mediated and sometimes moderated by great and super powers. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian cause may in fact be just a few of the pawns in an extensive and long-running regional and international power play.
Israel is responding massively to the unprecedented Hamas attack. If Mr Netanyahu does not satisfy his countrymen’s popular and sanguinary craving, his government will fall. Indeed, there is no Israeli government that will not respond with clear severity to the humiliating provocation of October 7. Prime Minister Golda Meir (fourth prime minister, 1969 to 1974) responded fiercely to the Yom Kippur war in 1973, but her party lost the elections the following year, though she was not blamed for the surprise attack by a coalition of Arab forces led by Egypt and Syria. After her party’s 1974 electoral loss, she resigned as prime minister. Mr Netanyahu will almost certainly be punished one way or the other after the Gaza war, even if Israel were to achieve a stunning victory against Hamas. His least consideration now, however, is not the tenuousness of his position as prime minister. His main concern will be how to win a complicated war in Gaza foisted on him by militants who have turned that narrow and densely populated 40km strip of land into a maze of booby traps undergirded by human and hostage shields. He will also be less bothered by what Bible prophecies say about another dispersal occurring to the Jews before the end of days.
