Major setbacks in the global fight against HIV may be imminent due to recent funding cuts, public health experts have warned ahead of the 13th International AIDS Society (IAS) Conference on HIV Science, set to open in Kigali, Rwanda, on July 14.
Leading scientists say the sudden withdrawal of financial support—particularly from the United States—is already reversing critical progress in HIV prevention, treatment, and research, especially across Africa and Latin America.
At a virtual pre-conference briefing on Tuesday, researchers presented troubling data showing that the cuts are triggering a rise in new infections, disrupting access to life-saving treatments, and placing added pressure on already fragile health systems.
“We are at a dangerous crossroads. While scientific breakthroughs bring us closer to a cure, these advances are now at risk,” warned IAS President, Dr. Beatriz Grinsztejn. “Massive cuts threaten to slow or even undo decades of hard-won progress.”
One of the most alarming findings came from Dr. Jack Stone, Associate Professor of Infectious Disease Mathematical Modelling at the University of Bristol. His team assessed the impact of U.S. funding cuts to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which until early 2025 had supported pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for nearly 700,000 people in 28 African countries.
Dr. Stone’s projections indicate that halting PrEP funding could lead to over 6,600 additional HIV infections in just one year, and nearly 10,000 more within five years. Those most affected include gay and bisexual men, sex workers, and transgender women.
Health advocates are calling for urgent action to restore funding and protect vulnerable communities from the resurgence of HIV.
“Ceasing PEPFAR’s funding for PrEP in sub-Saharan Africa will remove approximately 700,000 individuals from using oral PrEP. If this continued for one year, then 10,000 additional infections could occur over the next five years, with many of these infections being among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men and female sex workers. It is crucial that funding is found to continue and expand PrEP services in sub-Saharan Africa.” Dr Stone said.
In Mozambique, home to the third-highest number of people living with HIV, funding freezes have already had a dramatic effect.
A study led by Senior Technical Advisor at IAS, Anna Grimsrud, showed a 25% drop in new adult treatments, a 38% drop in viral load testing, and a 33% decline in cases of viral suppression between February 2024 and February 2025.
Children have been hit hardest, with a 71% drop in test results received and a 43% drop in children reaching viral suppression.
If the funding pause continues, Mozambique could see 83,000 new HIV cases and 14,000 additional deaths by 2030.
In Johannesburg, South Africa, the withdrawal of the APACE award, funded through PEPFAR, has led to a noticeable drop in HIV services.
Researcher at the Gauteng Provincial Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa, Khensani Chauke reported an 8.5% fall in testing, a 31% drop in HIV diagnoses, and a 30% reduction in treatment initiations between early 2024 and early 2025.
“These cuts have weakened the progress we had made toward achieving the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals,” Chauke noted.
HIV service organisations across Latin America and the Caribbean are reeling from the suspension of U.S. foreign aid, a new study has revealed.
A study by the lead researcher at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Meg Stevenson, showed that HIV service organisations across Latin America and the Caribbean are reeling from the suspension of U.S. foreign aid.
An online survey conducted between February 18 and March 14, 2025, involving 40 community-based HIV organisations across the region, revealed that funding cuts had begun in late January.
Out of 24 organisations that reported receiving U.S. support in the past year, 21 (87%) said their funds had been suspended. The cuts slashed nearly half of the annual budgets of most groups, while some lost their entire funding.
According to Stevenson, the affected programmes were offering critical HIV prevention, treatment, and support services to both adults and children. Many of these organisations are now at risk of shutting down or scaling back vital services.
The survey found that 21 of 24 (87%) of participating organisations that reported receipt of US funding in the last year had their funds suspended.
These cuts represent an average of nearly 50% of the organisations’ annual budgets. In some cases, it was 100% of their budgets. Funding cuts affected programmes that were providing HIV prevention and treatment, as well as ancillary services, to adults and children.
Activist Zackie Achmat, a long-time HIV advocate, called for international action to restructure debt in low- and middle-income countries so that governments can prioritise health over loan repayments.
“You cannot expect African countries to fight AIDS while they’re drowning in debt,” he said. “We need urgent debt relief to save lives.”
IAS President-elect Prof. Kenneth Ngure summed up the warning from experts, saying, “Millions across Africa depend on these services. These cuts are not abstract; they are costing lives.”
The IAS 2025 conference, taking place from July 14 to 17, will bring together top HIV scientists, researchers, policymakers, and activists from around the world to chart a way forward amid the funding crisis.
