The prospects of holding elections in three Northeast states that have been practically taken over by Boko Haram insurgents has been a cause for concern for stake-holders. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the issues involved.
This question has been on the lips of many Nigerians for a long time. According to experts, such Nigerians are interested in the matter because of the vital importance of this factor in the country’s war against insurgency. As military generals would say, propaganda is a vital aspect of modern warfare. So, by inference, another way of striking a deadly blow on the psyche of those behind the deeds of madness in the Northeast is through ballots, not bullets. The implication is that a successful conduct of free and fair elections in the region by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) translates to a psychological blow on the insurgents.
That is one of the reasons behind the push for elections in the Northeast region, which has become the enclave of the Boko Haram terrorist group holding Nigerians to ransom. But, what is the reality on the ground, with regards to the prospects of holding elections in the region?
There are those who believe that the prospects of holding elections in the zone are bleak. The spate of attacks in recent weeks blights such prospects. Indications are that the affected states, Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, would be so destabilized by the insurgents that millions of registered voters in that axis may not be inclined to go out and vote. Holding elections in some parts of the troubled region may be too insecure that many local and foreign observers will not get security clearance to observe the polls.
For this reason, there have been fears in many quarters that the general elections may not hold in the zone. In spite of repeated assurances from INEC that it is determined to ensure that elections hold in all parts of the country, it is not clear whether this is would be feasible in the troubled zone.
The news filtering from that region is not a palatable one. The President had on May 14, 2013 declared a six-month emergency rule in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states and renewed it twice at the peak of the Boko Haram activities. Though the imposition of emergency rule limited the group’s reach, it has equally increased the frequency and intensity of its attacks in the states of Borno and Yobe primarily. This is, perhaps, why the President attempt to further extend the emergency rule in November 2014 was rejected by the National Assembly. Several lawmakers have expressed their opposition to the extension, saying previous phases of the emergency rule have done little to help the local population in the three states.
The five-year-old insurgency, which is trying to revive a medieval Islamic caliphate, has killed thousands of people and uprooted more than a million. The militants have also kidnapped hundreds of children; including the over 200 school girls snatched from a school in the village of Chibok last April. The Chibok girls, as the kidnapped girls have come to be known, and other persons abducted by the murderous Islamic militants are still missing. Nobody knows their whereabouts or what is being done to secure their release from the den of the militants. It is against this background of hopelessness in the battle to curb the insurgency that concerned Nigerians are saying that there might be no elections in the three states.
But, other stakeholders, particularly the governors of the affected states, are insisting that elections must hold in their domain, despite the security threats on the people. Speaking after an emergency security meeting between President Jonathan and security chiefs last Tuesday, Governor Kassim Shettima of Borno State told reporters that elections had taken place in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and so many other places where there is terrorism and that the important issue is how to safeguard the lives and property of the people of those areas and recover the lost territories and the abducted Chibok girls.
Apparently, that was the outcome of the security meeting, which was convened in Abuja last Tuesday to assess the security situation in the Northeast. Though the affected Northeast states are facing an increasingly violent Islamic insurgency, the governors of the states were confident that elections could hold in all the areas where the insurgents are active. “Definitely in all those areas where the insurgency exists, elections will hold,” Shettima’s Yobe State counterpart, Alhaji Ibrahim Geidam, said.
Geidam noted that the governors told the President to deploy more troops in the Northeast ahead of the general elections, because the troops on ground in the affected states were not enough to handle the security situation. His words: “We need more troops; the troops that we have on the ground in our various states are not enough to contain the situation. So, we have appealed to the Federal Government to deploy additional troops with full equipment to contain the situation.”
Indeed, INEC spokesman Nick Dazzang was quoted as saying that the vote could be held on a staggered basis. In doing that, he added, areas could be secured with “proper deployment” of the security forces. Dazzang said INEC has started distributing voter cards to displaced people from the zone, many of whom are living in camps in neigbhouring states. But, it is not certain that they would be allowed to vote, because this would require “reconciling” discrepancies in the Electoral Act, he added. The implication is that the estimated 1.5 million persons displaced by the war in the region may not be able to vote in the forthcoming general elections, unless the law is changed to enable them to do so away from the polling unit where they registered.
Civil society activist and the President of the Nigeria Voters’ Assembly, Mr. Mashood Erubami said the idea of transferring from one place of registration to another is not a palatable one for INEC and as such it has ignored persons requesting for such transfer. He said this is because the measures put in place for the transfer is not as easy and simplistic as INEC officials are making people to believe.
Aside from all these, what is the implication of not holding elections in parts of the Northeast that are under the control of the Boko Haram insurgents? When he flagged off activities as the Director-General of the General Mohammadu Buhari Campaign Organisation, Governor Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State had cautioned the Federal Government and INEC not to plunge the country into a constitutional crisis, if by failing to conduct elections in the three states mainly affected by Boko Haram insurgency.
Amaechi said Nigeria would face a constitutional crisis, if INEC does not conduct elections in the three affected states. He asked rhetorically: “What would happen to the state assemblies? What about the National Assembly? Would the presidential election be conclusive if elections are not held in the three states? I hope we don’t enter into a constitutional crisis in 2015.”
The 1999 Constitution of Nigeria does not make provisions for a situation where, for one reason or the other, elections are not held in any part of the country. So, that lacuna might lead to a situation where the result of elections would be subject to endless litigations.
A legal practitioner, Mr. Niyi Akintola, said the framers of the constitution did not envisage a situation where crisis might compel the electoral commission to suspend election in any part of the country. “The entire country is the constituency of a presidential candidate and he is obliged to test his popularity in all parts of the country. Similarly, for a governorship candidate, the entire state is his constituency and he must stand for election in all parts of the state. Not to conduct election in all parts of the state, for the governorship contest and in all parts of the country, for the presidential race, would amount to a breach of the constitution.
“There is no provision in the constitution that says that you can hold presidential elections without participation in some parts of the country. So, whatever it would take, one would expect the authorities concerned to ensure that elections are held in the Northeast. This is necessary to avoid litigations after the election.”
Akintola added that he would advise the relevant authorities to ensure that elections are held in all the local governments of the affected states, to give all governorship and presidential candidates a level-playing ground.
A security and ancillary services consultant, Colonel Gabriel Ajayi (rtd), said while it is important to adhere to the provisions of the constitution that it is also necessary to ensure that the country is not held to ransom because there is crisis in one part of the country. He added: “Does it mean we should suspend elections in all parts of the country, if for one reason or the other elections cannot be held in all parts of the country? I don’t believe the rest of the country should be held to ransom because there is crisis in one part of the country. Does it invalidate the election conducted in other parts of the state and other parts of the country, for governorship elections and the presidential election respectively?”
Against this background, the Boko Haram insurgency is one of the critical issues that make the year 2015 a turning point for Nigeria. The other is that of ensuring free and fair elections in the country; to make the votes of Nigerians count. For this reason, the Federal Government had been anxious towards the end of last year to produce positive results in its efforts to end the insurgency. One of such efforts however ended up embarrassing the government. Indeed, it sounded almost too good to be true to most Nigerians, when in mid October 2014 the Chief of Defense Staff Alex Badeh announced that a ceasefire had been reached with the murderous Islamic militants and that an imminent deal to release the Chibok girls is in the offing. It sounded that way because Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau was initially mute about the supposed ceasefire and President Jonathan’s spokesmen were equally silent on the supposed development. In previous occasions, such declarations by military spokesmen had proved hollow.
Thus, it was a huge blow, when Shekau appeared in a videotaped message later, dismissing the so-called ceasefire. The Boko Haram leader added that the Chibok girls had been married off. “All of them have accepted Islam and are now married. Anybody that said plans are underway for the release of the girls is just daydreaming. They would not be returned,” he was quoted as saying. He added: “Who agreed to a ceasefire? You are not serious.” Since then, attacks and abductions have continued.
The Boko Haram uprising started in 2009 in Maiduguri, under the founder of the group, the late Mohammed Yusuf, when the group carried out a spate of attacks on police stations and other government buildings. The next day, the police retaliated with a brutal crackdown, which led the killing of about 55 of its supporters and the exodus of thousands of residents out of the city. The uprising was originally to protest against the killing and harassment of its men by the security forces. After the murder of its late founder in police custody, the group went underground and the authorities felt that was the end of Boko Haram.
But, the group re-emerged in the second half of 2010, under Shekau, with sporadic attacks. It expanded its operations between 2011 and 2012, but scaled it back in mid 2013, when the Federal Government imposed emergency rule in the three states of the Northeast where the insurgency is primarily based.
