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  • IMF: Global economy recovers from tariff shock with tech-driven boom

    IMF: Global economy recovers from tariff shock with tech-driven boom

    Global economic growth continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty.

    The IMF latest projections released at the weekend, indicate that global growth will hold steady at 3.3 per cent this year, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to October estimates, with most of the improvement accounted for by the United States and China.

    The joint report by Chief Economist and Director of Research Department at the IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and IMF Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Adrian Tobias said the current projections are broadly unchanged from a year earlier, as the global economy shakes off the immediate impact of the tariff shock.

     “This surprising strength reflects a confluence of factors, including easing trade tensions, higher-than-expected fiscal stimulus, accommodative financial conditions, the agility of the private sector in mitigating trade disruptions and improved policy frameworks especially in emerging market economies,” they said.

    The explained that another key driver of this resilience is the continued surge in investment in the information technology sector—especially in artificial intelligence.

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    “While manufacturing activity remains subdued, IT investment as a share of US economic output has surged to the highest level since 2001, providing a major boost to overall business investment and activity. Although this IT surge has been concentrated in the United States, it is also generating positive spillovers globally, most notably to Asia’s technology exports,” they said.

    Accoriding to the report, the IT investment boom reflects businesses and markets’ optimism about the transformative potential of recent tech innovations—in automation and AI—to deliver sizable productivity gains and to lift profits. Since late 2022, coinciding with the introduction of the first widely used generative-AI tools, stock prices have risen sharply.

     “Favorable financial conditions and robust earnings­­ have supported rising stock prices and helped fund new capital spending. But as the expansion accelerates, debt financing is becoming more prevalent, increasing leverage. This shift introduces notable risks: higher leverage could amplify shocks if returns fail to materialize, or if broader financial conditions tighten, adversely impacting firms and raising concerns about spillovers to the broader financial system,” they said.

    The report further explained that profitability could become sensitive to assumptions around depreciation schedules for advanced processors. Frequent equipment upgrades will squeeze profit margins, weigh on earnings, and require significant additional debt financing. These factors underscore the importance of monitoring leverage accumulation and its potential to amplify vulnerabilities.

     “The comparison with the dot-com boom of 1995-2000 is instructive. Even though IT investment as a share of gross domestic product is broadly similar to levels then, the recent rise has been more gradual, accelerating markedly only last year. Furthermore, while market valuations relative to economic output have expanded at a similar pace in both episodes, the rise in price-earnings ratios has been more modest in the current boom given more robust earnings,” it said.

     “Overall, our analysis suggests that potential overvaluation for the broad equity index in the United States is only about half that of the dot-com episode. That said, the overall vulnerability of global macroeconomic growth to a repricing of technology stocks may be substantial for three reasons”.

     “First, rising stock prices over the past few years have been driven predominantly by the technology sector, in particular AI-related stocks, and this narrow group has become a major driver of the index. Second, many critical AI-related firms are not currently listed on stock markets. Their debt borrowings could have consequences that were not seen during the dot-com era. Third, market capitalization is now much higher relative to output, from 132 percent in 2001 to 226 percent now for the United States; so even a more modest correction could have a sizable effect on overall consumption”. 

    Looking ahead, they insisted that that the current tech boom raises important upside and downside risks for the global economy. On the upside, AI could start to deliver on its productivity promises, raising US and global activity by 0.3 percent this year, relative to the baseline.

     “Given the decade-long increase in foreign ownership of US equities, this sharp correction could also trigger sizable wealth losses outside the United States and exert a drag on consumption, spreading the downturn more globally. Even economies that have little exposure to technology, including many high-debt and low-income countries, would be buffeted by negative external demand spillovers and higher external borrowing costs,” they said.

     “Such downside risks arise at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, increased use of export controls on critical inputs and trade-related restraints, and eroded fiscal space in many countries. This could interact with any reassessment of AI-related productivity growth and repricing of risky asset valuations in a self-reinforcing manner”.

  • IMF raises Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%

    IMF raises Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from the 4.2 per cent projection released in October 2025.

    The revised outlook was contained in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook, which was unveiled yesterday. The adjustment reflects a more positive assessment of Nigeria’s medium-term growth prospects amid ongoing policy reforms and broader regional recovery.

    According to the Fund, the upgrade to Nigeria’s outlook forms part of its wider evaluation of global economic conditions, which it expects to remain relatively stable in the coming years. The IMF noted that Nigeria’s improved forecast aligns with gradual but broad-based economic strengthening across Sub-Saharan Africa rather than an isolated revision.

    Nigeria’s revised growth projection builds on a period of significant economic adjustment, characterised by policy reforms and sustained efforts to restore macroeconomic balance. In its October 2025 outlook, the IMF had cited concerns around inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints and structural bottlenecks as key risks to growth.

    Since then, Nigerian policymakers have continued to pursue reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment and boosting productivity across critical sectors of the economy.

    Read Also: IMF, Nigeria discuss reforms, new development plan

    The Fund has consistently stressed that deepening structural reforms remains essential for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth in emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.

    At the regional level, the IMF revised Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth outlook upward, from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, signalling a broadly shared recovery across the region.

    Globally, the Fund projects economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3 per cent growth recorded in 2025. It attributed the relatively stable outlook to a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investment, including artificial intelligence, supported by accommodative financial conditions.

    The IMF also expects global inflation to continue its downward trend, with headline inflation projected to ease from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027.

  • IMF: Banks’ debt risks rise as govts access more domestic loans

    IMF: Banks’ debt risks rise as govts access more domestic loans

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the surge in domestic borrowing is now raising the government’s debt risks in banks’ portfolios.

    In a report titled: “Sub Saharan Africa: Steady Growth Amid Fiscal Challenges” released at the weekend, the IMF Director, African Department, Abebe Selassie, explained that as governments shift toward domestic borrowing, banks are more exposed to government debt risk.

    Earlier, Selassie had asked Nigeria to roll out social protection scheme for the vulnerable and spend savings from petrol subsidy removal on healthcare and education of the population.

    He said now is not the time to do spending compression, but rather to spend more when it comes to these areas, which are crucial for developing countries to help sustain growth and improve social outcomes.

    He said governments are advised to carry out reforms that ensure more resources are mobilised to go into these areas, with greatest impact on the people.

    He said that inflation, though easing overall, still exceeds 10 per cent for about a fifth of the Africa’s economies, adding that while some countries have rebuilt international reserves, they remain stretched across much of the region.

    “Against this difficult backdrop, we see two broad policy priorities.

    First, raising more revenue. The region’s development needs remain immense, yet external financing is scarce and debt burdens heavy. Mobilizing domestic revenues at home is an essential route to lasting fiscal space, while better debt management can lower borrowing costs and widen access to funds,” he said.

    Selassie also advocated boosting tax collection, which has long been a challenge for the region’s public finances.

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     “Past efforts show what works—and what does not. Effective reform demands attention to both tax policy (what and how much to tax) and tax administration (how to collect). Countries that have made headway—such as Ghana, Rwanda and Tanzania—did so by digitizing their tax systems, piloting reforms, supporting tax officials, and engaging citizens. Others learned that limited public support can derail poorly designed levies. The lesson is clear: progress depends as much on trust and sequencing as on technical fixes,” he said.

    Selassie explained that given that people are more willing to pay taxes when they see public money spent wisely, governments need to pair revenue reform with visibly improved service delivery, tighter spending controls, and efforts to tackle corruption and boost accountability adding that without such enhancements, revenue gains will prove fleeting.

     “Improving debt management is also essential. Transparent, credible debt management institutions can cut borrowing costs and attract investors. Publishing comprehensive debt data, engaging openly with creditors, and strengthening approval and oversight procedures are key first steps,” he said.

    Selassie said that better debt management also supports access to innovative financing. Instruments such as blended finance, which combines concessional and private funds, can channel investment into green energy, health, and infrastructure.

     “Agreements between governments and creditors to replace existing sovereign debt with liabilities that include spending for a specific development goal, known as debt-for-development swaps, can foster social or environmental gains—and have been tested in Côte d’Ivoire among other places,” he said.

    He advised that  to scale up such initiatives, governments need credible regulation, transparent data, and simplified procedures. These tools, used correctly, can help lay a foundation for more resilient and inclusive growth.

  • Nigeria will surpass IMF’s 3.9%  growth forecast, say experts

    Nigeria will surpass IMF’s 3.9%  growth forecast, say experts

    • ‘Inflation drop a reflection of reforms’
    • Stock market gains N389b

    Economic and finance experts were unanimous yesterday that the Nigerian economy has entered a strong recovery phase, with the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expected to exceed the upgraded projection of 3.9 per cent by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    IMF, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) released at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, United States, revised upward its Nigeria’s growth forecast of 3.4 per cent to 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026.

    It cited improvements in the country’s macroeconomic outlook.

    The IMF also yesterday weighed in on the latest inflation report, noting that the continuing disinflation trend was a reflection of the Nigerian government’s reforms.

    The Nigerian stock market yesterday spurted to capitalisation of N94.17 trillion after investors opened up market orders in a scramble that added N389 billion in net capital gains. Market value of all quoted companies at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) regained its bullishness on Wednesday on the back of the release of the IMF’s WEO.

    Director of the Africa Department at IMF, Abebe Selassie, said the reforms in exchange rate and monetary policy tightening of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) played significant role in the gradual drop of inflation rate to 18.02 per cent in September.

    Speaking yesterday during the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, Selassie said the Fund was encouraged by the September inflation rate, but advised that the government do more to bring down the cost of living for the people.

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report showed that headline inflation rate dropped by 210 basis points from 20.12 per cent in August 2025 to 18.02 per cent in September 2025. It was the sixth consecutive time since April 2025.

    The decline in headline inflation rate was driven by broad improvements in prices, especially with substantial drop in prices of food items. Food inflation had dropped by 500 basis points from 21.87 per cent in August 2025 to 16.87 points in September 2025.

    Selassie said Nigeria’s economic reforms would further support the projected 3.9 per cent growth for 2025, and 4.1 per cent growth for 2026.

    He noted that to rein in inflation, the CBN tightened policy aggressively, raising rates by more than 800 basis points and strengthening liquidity management.

    He said the use of orthodoxy by halting central bank financing of government beyond statutory limits and re-anchoring monetary policy on its core mandate also supported the decline in inflation rate.

    Experts said all indications for substantial growth in the period ahead are in favour of Nigeria as the reforms have laid a strong foundation for sustained and accelerated growth.

    The experts who spoke yesterday included Chief Executive Officer, Economic Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba; Executive Chairman, Bristol Group of Companies, Dr Chijioke  Ekechukwu; Managing Director, Arthur Steven Asset Management, Mr Olatunde Amolegbe; Managing Director, APT Securities & Fund, Mallam Kasimu Kurfi and Head, Transparency International in Nigeria, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani.

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    Teriba said Nigeria’s quarterly growth trajectory and the ongoing momentum being witnessed by the economy were reflective of the country’s potential to surpass IMF’s projection.

    According to him, Nigeria’s challenge is no longer how to ignite growth but to sustain the ongoing economic recovery, which rests on three interlinked pillars of liquidity, stability, and growth, with liquidity being the foundation.

    He outlined that government’s reforms have seen net foreign reserves growing from less than $4 billion to over $23 billion, stabilising the naira for ten consecutive months and easing inflation that had been rising for nearly two years.

    He stressed that the government must further deepen liquidity, targeting reserves of up to $100 billion through stronger foreign direct investment rather than short-term portfolio inflows.

    To sustain the current momentum, he urged policymakers to shift from borrowing to partnership-driven investments, opening critical infrastructure sectors such as ports, transmission networks, refineries, and airports to genuine private capital participation.

    He said: “Don’t borrow—let investors come in and take a share in those companies,” warning against repeating past waste and mismanagement of borrowed funds.

    He also emphasised consistency in the ongoing foreign exchange reforms, particularly the single exchange rate regime, while ensuring all relevant stakeholders, including money transfer operators and foreign direct investment (FDI) players, remain part of the policy dialogue.

    He however noted that Nigeria needs 20 consecutive quarters of growth above four per cent to secure a durable recovery.

    He said such sustained growth would require disciplined reform implementation, continuing investor confidence, and long-term policy continuity that keeps liquidity, stability, and growth in balance.

    Kurfi said IMF’s 3.9 per cent GDP growth target was below government’s target of above four per cent, with all odds favouring government’s optimistic outlook of the economy.

    He said Nigeria is poised to see more foreign investments and stronger forex given the country’s natural resources and the benefits of the macroeconomic reforms.

    He said: “The FDI is likely to continue to flow because of the country’s potential, with the largest population in Africa and is likely to become number four in the world terms of population by 2050. We will see more foreign investors due to the young population and our size in Africa. All economic indicators look good for Nigeria-low inflation, stable exchange rate, and high GDP growth. To add to this, the falling price of food is making food available for all”.

    Amolegbe said it was not surprising that IMF upgraded its growth projection for Nigeria as the reform agenda of the Nigerian government boosted both local and foreign investors’ confidence, while strengthening the nation’s fiscal position.

    “My expectation is for the government to continue with the reforms in various sectors particularly with policies to improve productivity and economic growth. Efforts to also diversify the revenue base away from over dependence on oil should also continue apace. Also, efforts to lower the cost of living as well as ameliorating the impact of reforms on the citizenry must also continue to receive priority,” Amolegbe said.

    Ekechukwu  said the numerous reforms by the government have been instrumental to favourable global ratings, including the latest upgrade of the country’s growth outlook by the IMF.

    He said: “The volatility of the foreign exchange market has reduced. The instability, rising inflation, and rising interest rates have reversed. Business owners can now plan on the level of stability experienced.

  • Global conomy improves in spite uncertainty – IMF

    Global conomy improves in spite uncertainty – IMF

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF), says the global economy has improved tremendously amid uncertainty.

    The IMF Managig Director, Kristalina Georgieva gave the description on Thursday in Washington while making a presentation   on the “Global Policy Agenda” at the ongoing Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group.

    According to Georgrieva, uncertainty has continued to go up.

    “Gold values too have shown such resilience in the face of uncertainty and profound transformations in geo-politics, in technology, in trade relations, and in demography,” she said.

    She gave two core reasons for the global economic situation.

    “Firstly, improved policy fundamentals. Since the global financial crisis, many countries, especially emerging markets, have pursued sound policies.

    “They have strengthened their institutions; they have strengthened their frameworks; this investment is paying off, and if I may say, stayed the course.

    “Secondly, the adaptability of the private sector, which has shown agility in import front-loading, in supply chain strengthening, in just navigating uncertainty, is quite remarkable,” she said.

    She, however, said that the outlook was underwhelming.

    According to her, medium-term growth prospects remain weak.

    “Public debt is near record highs and continues to climb, and the global economy is excessively imbalanced.

    “The forces of change are making the global economy less predictable, and it is impacting people.

    “People are anxious; they are taking to the streets to demand better opportunities,” she said.

    She said that the private sector handled uncertainty better.

    “So unlock private sector growth for economies to deliver more jobs and better livelihoods.

    “For the private sector to thrive, countries must push ahead with broad and ambitious domestic reforms.

    “I have encouraged our members to embrace a regulatory housecleaning to help foster innovation and entrepreneurship,” she said.

    Georgrieva urged member-countries to keep trade as an engine of growth.

    According to her, this can only be accomplished when the basic building blocks of private enterprise are in place, like strong institutions, free and fair markets, and stable macroeconomic environment.

    Read Also: IMF urges Nigeria to prioritise infrastructure funding

    “This brings me to the second priority; secure sound macroeconomic fundamentals for navigating a more turbulent world.

    “On fiscal policy, countries must rebuild fiscal space and reduce debt.

    “This means relying more on domestic sources of revenues and making smart budget choices.

    “On monetary and financial sector policies, the priority remains to preserve stability and guard against financial stability risks, ” she said.

    She also called for a reduction in global imbalances.

    She said that countries with excessive surpluses, like China, should boost domestic demands, including by spending less on industrial policy and more on social safety nets.

    “Those with excessive deficits, notably the United States, need to reduce fiscal deficits and incentivise private savings.

    “As always, at the IMF, we are focused on what we can do to strengthen economic and financial stability, resolve balance of payment problems, build strong policies and institution,” she said.

    The IMF managing director said that there were a couple of very important developments that the fund was pursuing.

    “We have in motion comprehensive surveillance review to sharpen the focus on surveillance, including our advice on trade policies and domestic reforms to rebalance the economy.

    “We have an ongoing review on conditionality.

    “It will strengthen programme design so we can better support our members and help them navigate this more uncertain world.

    “To ensure our capacity to provide much-needed financing to low-income countries, we need to continue to mobilise our members to fully implement the PRGT reform agreed last October,” she said.

    She also called on members to look carefully into the “catastrophic payment and relief trust”.

    According to her, it is very useful to help the poorest of the poor during COVID, but it is depleted.

    ” For the new shocks to come, we need to seriously consider replenishing it.

    “Finaly, on debt, we continue our work on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable.

    “We continue work on reviewing the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries.

    “We intend to make more systematic use of our good offices to improve coordination between creditors and debtors,” she said.

    According to Georgrieva, uncertainty is here to stay and change is unstoppable.

    “But with change comes opportunity; and in the IMF, we will continue to help our countries to pursue opportunities in front of them.

    “As a prudent steward of our members’ resources, we are going to be right there for them every step of the way.

    “I can share with you that I have had extensive meetings with regional groups across the membership.

    ”The interest in the Fund to provide calibrated, detailed, country-specific advice for this moment of time is just overwhelming,” she said.

    (NAN)

  • IMF urges Nigeria to prioritise infrastructure funding

    IMF urges Nigeria to prioritise infrastructure funding

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday called on the Federal Government to prioritise fiscal policies that strengthen public finance management and capital expenditure on infrastructure and education in order to consolidate the country’s macroeconomic gains.

    On the back of the higher growth projection for the country, IMF said Nigeria must muster further political will to implement additional fiscal policies that reinforce emerging gains and reduce vulnerabilities to domestic and external shocks.

    The IMF had raised Nigeria’s growth forecast to 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, citing improvements in the country’s macroeconomic outlook.

    Speaking yesterday during the Fiscal Monitor session at the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Washington DC, Division Chief, Fiscal Affairs Department IMF, Davide Furceri, said that Nigeria’s ongoing fiscal and structural reforms were neutral and well aligned with monetary policies designed to curb inflation and stabilise the economy.

    He advised Nigeria to focus on revenue and expenditure sides of public finance.

    He said: “Nigeria has made significant progress in recent years. Several laws have been passed to streamline the tax code, reduce tax expenditures and ease the compliance burden for businesses and coerce. These are steps in the right direction”.

    He called for greater efficiency in public spending to ensure better outcomes for citizens.

    According to him, optimising how resources are allocated and spent could deliver substantial economic and social gains.

    “In addition, it is important to increase social spending, particularly to support vulnerable households and ensure inclusive growth,” Furceri said.

    He urged Nigeria to continue to implement key fiscal and monetary reforms under its medium-term economic framework, fiscal discipline, improved revenue generation and enhanced transparency in public finance management.

    He added that IMF’s endorsement reflected growing confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory, even as the government pushes for policies aimed at boosting growth, reducing inequality and sustaining macroeconomic stability.

    Read Also: IMF seeks autonomous central banks in stronger global system

    He said: “These are policies that go in the right direction. On the spending side, there is scope to, on the one hand, improve the efficiency of the spending itself — and we also talk in the chapter about the gains that can be achieved when countries improve the efficiency and composition of spending — but also to increase social spending to address social vulnerability in the country”.

    Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, Vitor Gasper, said Nigeria needs to prioritise fiscal policy issues by strengthening public finance management and improving the quality of spending to help stimulate growth and achieve sustainability in its debts.

    Nigeria’s debt position stood at N152.3 trillion as at June 2025, data from Debt Management Office (DMO) showed.

    According to him, persistence of spending above tax revenues will push debts higher threatening sustainability and financial stability.

    He called for more expenditure on infrastructure and education, by changing the composition of public spending while keeping the overall envelope fixed.

    He advised that prioritizing fiscal policy is essential to support debt sustainability and prepare fiscal buffers to use in case of severe adverse shocks including financial crises.

    He said: “But while we do recognise that the fiscal equation is very hard to square politically, the time to prepare is now.  Improving growth prospects and enhancing public trust in government help balance the fiscal equation. Fiscal policy is structural policy. Deploying fiscal structural policy improves growth prospects and reinforces complementarities and synergies with the private sector”.

    Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso, yesterday hinted that the CBN was developing a framework to ensure that currency swap arrangements with other countries were structured to deliver mutual benefits.

    He said the intention was was to strengthen the country’s position in international trade and financial cooperation.

    He said there was a link between disciplined fiscal and monetary policies, economic growth, and a gradual reduction in inflationary pressures.

    He said the government’s reforms have removed distortions and laid foundation for economic development.

    Speaking yesterday at the investors’ forum held at the sidelines of the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, Cardoso, who is the leader of the Nigerian delegation, said that bold and comprehensive reforms have led to greater macroeconomic resiliency and positive economic outcomes.

    The investors forum attended by JP Morgan and other stakeholders was meant to attract global investors to the domestic economy.

    The Federal Government will also issue about $2.3 billion Eurobond, which will also help refinance the $1.18 billion Eurobond maturing in November.

    He said the event provides a valuable opportunity to engage directly with our partners and investors who continue to show confidence in Nigeria’s future.

    Cardoso said the apex bank remained committed to prudent policy that would bring about durability, ensuring a lasting and positive impact in the economy.

    He said about four per cent growth target is being targeted, even as government is pushing through expansion of the non-oil sector growth.

    He said that inflation has continued to drop, with 18.02 per cent target in the nearest term.

    He said that gross foreign reserves have hit five-year high at $43.4 billion, with capacity to provide 11-month import cover for the country.

    He said that Nigeria currently enjoys positive balance of payment, contributing positively in easing economic stability.

    He said difficult economic reforms embarked on by the federal government is bearing positive results as seen the stability in exchange rate, stronger economic buffers, and dip in inflation numbers.

    Cardoso explained that apex bank has been able to build a stronger economy, through difficult things we have done.

    He said that Nigeria has a competitive naira, which is game changer that should attract investors to the economy. He said that with a competitive naira, FDIs inflows prospects to the economy has risen.

    According to him, over the past two years, the CBN has undertaken critical reforms to unify Nigeria’s exchange rate, eliminating distortions and restoring transparency.

    He said the unification has enabled the CBN to clear the outstanding foreign exchange obligations, giving businesses—ranging from manufacturers to airlines—the confidence to plan and invest in the future.

    He said that while the Central Bank will continue to lay the foundation for price stability and foster a conducive policy environment, the role of our banks in this journey is crucial.

    Deputy Governor, Economic Policy at the CBN, Mr. Mohammed Sadi Abdullahi, said the apex bank  has taken a lot on measures to prevent speculative activity and ensure best practices in the market operational framework.

    He said: “Capital flows, which I mentioned, within the 2019–2020 period before, collapsed by over 75 per cent, have significantly improved and have therefore improved our external position. So we do now have deeper and functional financial markets, much more robust and transparent. There’s been a significant increase in the average monthly turnover to $8.6 billion monthly in 2025 versus an average of $5.5 billion and much less in the year before. Today, CBN stands as a net supplier by less than about a percentage of the market turnover. We’re actually a net buyer in the market”.

    Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, reiterated government’s commitment to strategic engagement with global financial institutions and development partners.

    She said that her presence at the G-24 meeting highlighted Nigeria’s determination to build stronger partnerships and foster sustainable growth through inclusive and forward-looking economic policies.

    She said that the global spotlight on Nigeria at the meeting reflected growing international confidence in the country’s reform agenda and its resolve to build a resilient, competitive and dynamic economy.

    According to her, Nigeria’s participation in the Washington meetings represents a significant step in advancing the nation’s economic diplomacy.

    The Fiscal Monitor report released by IMF yesterday projected that global public debt would rise above 100 per cent of GDP by 2029. In such a scenario, public debt would be at its highest level since 1948. This reflects a higher and steeper path than projected before the pandemic.

    In addition, the distribution of risks is wide and tilted toward debt accumulating even faster. With a five per cent percent risk, debt would reach 124 percent in 2029.

    It stated that the public debt landscape is very diverse. “Countries differ widely in their deficit and debt levels. Many major economies have public debt greater than (or projected to go over) 100 percent of GDP. Although the number of countries with debt above 100 percent will be steadily declining in the next five years, their share in world GDP is projected to rise,” it stated.

    According to the report, when countries falter on debt, timely debt restructuring is critical to containing the damage.

    The report stated: “The IMF is working on strengthening the debt architecture, including through the Common Framework and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. An even better strategy, is to maintain safer debt ratio.

     “Beyond the present, fiscal risks loom large. Public debt dynamics have drastically changed in recent years. It is not only the size of debt but also the cost. The years between the global financial crisis and the pandemic were marked by unusually easy conditions for sustaining debt.

     “This Fiscal Monitor explores how governments can improve economic growth prospects by enhancing the efficiency and composition of public spending. Redirecting public spending toward infrastructure, education, health, and research and development, without increasing overall spending, can deliver significant long-term gains in output.

     “Closing gaps in efficiency can further magnify these gains, with institution-building being the most effective strategy. The analysis provides new global and time-varying datasets of public spending efficiency and rigidity”.

  • IMF raises Nigeria’s growth to 3.9%

    IMF raises Nigeria’s growth to 3.9%

    • CBN: economy resilient with buffers against global risks

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its Nigeria’s growth forecast to 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, citing improvements in the country’s macroeconomic outlook.

    The IMF stated that the upgrade of its national growth projection for Nigeria was also based on favourable domestic situation.

    The multilateral institution gave the verdict in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released yesterday at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, United States.

    Nigeria’s upgrade was significant as many other economies saw significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape.

    Global economy growth is projected to decline from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026.

    At a press briefing on the WEO, IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the Fund based its outlook for Nigeria on several improving macroeconomic indicators and supportive domestic factors.

    He said factor responsible for the higher growth revision include higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and limited exposure to higher US tariffs.

    He added that the Fund also considered stability in the exchange rate, rising foreign reserves and rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as significant factors expected to propel the Nigeria economy forward in 2026.

    He said: “Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape”.

    Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, also yesterday said fiscal and monetary reforms embarked upon by the President Bola Tinubu’s administration have fully restructured the economy, making it more resilient and with huge buffers against global risks.

    Cardoso, who spoke during the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) press briefing at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, said the naira has emerged as a competitive currency while the economy has been witnessing positive trade balances.

    According to him, another major pointer to the resilience of the economy is the fact that large businesses are moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities.

    Read Also: IMF seeks autonomous central banks in stronger global system

    He said all these positive economic indicators have combined to create resilient and strong buffers, keeping the economy in great shapes.

    Cardoso, who is the leader of the Nigeria delegation at the meetings, said squabbling around global tariffs would have less impact on the Nigerian economy, given the current structure of the economy.

    He said: “And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time.

    “So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports.

    “And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks”.

    Cardoso noted that the G-24 has played significant role in finding solutions to global challenges, through dialogue and exchange of ideas with global financial institutions.

    He pointed out that although global growth has been slow, but not as behind as would have been expected to be.

    In his remarks, G-24 Chairman, Pablo Quirno noted that recent adverse shocks in global economy have left growth below pre-pandemic levels, with rising policy uncertainties creating substantial medium-term headwinds.

    He said: “Emerging market and developing economies have faced deteriorating terms of trade, reduced export volumes, and declining foreign currency earnings. Many of these countries have implemented domestic policies to mitigate uncertainty, but constrained policy space underscores the urgent need for collective solutions supported by multilateral institutions”.

    Providing further context on the global economic outlook, Gourinchas said that 10 to 12 per cent weakening of the dollar has helped financial conditions in many emerging market economies, especially countries that have dollar denominated debt.

    He added that local currency recovery and dip in inflation figures have also been supported by weakening dollar.

    He said: “The depreciation of the dollar also helps a number of these countries on inflation front, because a lot of goods are invoiced in those dollars, and so the pricing dollar remains constant, but the dollar itself is weaker. This helps to reduce input prices, and lead to drop in inflation”.

    IMF Deputy Director in the Research Department, Petya Koeva Brooks, said that many low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa benefited from preferential access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which expired in September.

    She explained that in sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to remain subdued, unchanged in 2025 from 4.1 per cent in 2024, before picking up to 4.4 per cent in 2026.

    She said: “This is an upward revision relative to the April 2025 WEO forecast by a cumulative 0.5 percentage point, but a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared with the October 2024 WEO”.

    The WEO report stated that the global economy was adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures.

    It projected global economy growth to slow from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 per cent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4.0 per cent.

    It noted that some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, due to subsequent deals and resets.

    “But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025—such as front-loading—are fading. As a result, global growth projections in the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) are revised upward relative to the April 2025 WEO but continue to mark a downward revision relative to the pre-policy-shift forecasts,” the report stated.

    Likewise, inflation is projected to continue to decline globally, though with variation across countries: above target in the United States—with risks tilted to the upside—and subdued elsewhere.

    “Risks are tilted to the downside. Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labor supply shocks could reduce growth. Fiscal vulnerabilities, potential financial market corrections, and erosion of institutions could threaten stability,” WEO stated.

    The IMF urged policymakers are urged to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies.

    It stated: “Trade diplomacy should be paired with macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt. Central bank independence should be preserved. Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled. As Chapter 2 shows, past actions to improve policy frameworks have served countries well. As Chapter 3 demonstrates, industrial policy may have a role, but full consideration should be given to opportunity costs and trade-offs involved in its use.

     “The tactics that keep activity seemingly resilient in the short term, such as trade diversion and rerouting, are costly. Suboptimal reallocation of productive resources, technological decoupling, and limitations on knowledge diffusion are bound to restrain growth over the longer term”.

    The Fund stated that the global economy has shown resilience to the trade policy shocks, including because these shocks materialized on a smaller scale than expected at their onset, but the drag from shifting policies is becoming visible in more recent data. There have been several common drivers of growth patterns across countries but also some important idiosyncratic factors.

  • IMF seeks autonomous central banks in stronger global system

    IMF seeks autonomous central banks in stronger global system

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on governments worldwide to build stronger institutions and ensure the independence of their central banks.

    At the IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke yesterday at the Civil Society Town Hall Programme, part of the pre-opening events at the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings.

    The IMF chief also played down the impact of US tariffs on many world economies, saying the effect of the tariffs has decreased compared with the position at the April 2025 meetings.

    She added that the private sector is currently much stronger than it was in April, signalling improvement in global economic performance.

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    She further acknowledged the devastating impact of high debt levels on world economies, urging countries to pursue more growth to reduce the burden of debt on their economies.

    “The impact of tariffs is not as dramatic as we feared. US tariffs are lower today than they were last April.

    “Many countries have chosen not to retaliate and are avoiding tit-for-tat actions, which is protecting world trade.

    “There should be concerted efforts to bring debts down and support global economic recoveries, even as there is a need to identify pathways to resolving the debt crisis,” she said.

    Georgieva called on countries to grow out of debt and create more development opportunities.

    Reflecting on global progress over the decades, she said: “The average person today is much better off than, say, 30 years ago, but the averages conceal deep undercurrents of marginalisation, discontent, and hardship.

    “Many people in many places—especially the young—are taking their disappointment to the streets: from Lima to Rabat, from Paris to Nairobi, and from Kathmandu to Jakarta, all are demanding better opportunities.”

    She noted that the most important discussions at the Annual Meetings will focus on the global economic impact of these transformative forces and the policy turbulence we are experiencing.

    “How is the world economy coping? Short answer: better than feared, but worse than we need.

    “When we met in April, many experts—not us—predicted a U.S. recession in the near term, with negative spillovers to the rest of the world.

    “Instead, the U.S. economy, as well as many other advanced and emerging markets and some developing countries, have held up.

    “As our World Economic Outlook will explain next week, we see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next. All signs point to a world economy that has generally withstood acute strains from multiple shocks,” she said.

    According to her, the resilience of global economies is attributable to improved policy fundamentals, private sector adaptability, less severe tariff outcomes than initially feared—for now—and supportive financial conditions—as long as they hold.

  • Jimoh Ibrahim faults IMF, World Bank, Insists Nigeria is World’s 42nd biggest economy

    Jimoh Ibrahim faults IMF, World Bank, Insists Nigeria is World’s 42nd biggest economy

    Senator Jimoh Ibrahim (Ondo South) has challenged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to present evidence contradicting the claim that Nigeria is the 42nd largest economy in the world.

    Ibrahim spoke in Abuja while reacting to the IMF/World Bank statement claiming Nigeria is the 12th poorest country with a specific per capita income. 

    He criticised the IMF for overlooking the country’s total GDP, which primarily influences the per capita income.

    Ibrahim emphasised that President Tinubu’s administration had never stated that Nigeria faces no challenges. 

    He said Nigeria struggles to translate its large GDP into higher per capita income, a problem the government is addressing with the Hope Agenda. 

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    Ibrahim said the IMF and World Bank often show data from only one standpoint on the balance sheet. He suggested these organisations should concentrate on their internal problem of increasing consultancy fees, highlighting that the IMF and World Bank are epiphenomena without independent authority.

    Ibrahim stated that the skill gap in the public sector hinders the effective execution of government’s good intentions, adding the government aims to address this problem through a significant restructuring policy.

    Noting that reforms are underway, and promoting the knowledge economy has become a top focus, he said per capita income is projected to increase gradually over time.

    Ibrahim emphasised that eradicating or reducing poverty was a shared responsibility, adding that Nigeria’s actual GDP is $363 billion, with a per capita income of $1,597, as opposed to the $808 mentioned by the global financial institutions. 

  • Report: How $3.4b repaid IMF loan lifted balance of payment

    Report: How $3.4b repaid IMF loan lifted balance of payment

    The federal government and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have confirmed Nigeria’s full principal repayment of the $3.4 billion IMF loan advanced in April 2020 to fix Nigeria’s Balance of Payment hitches.

    The loan came under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to meet the urgent balance of payment needs stemming from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The IMF financial support was to help limit the decline in international reserves and provide financing to the budget for targeted and temporary spending increases aimed at containing and mitigating the economic impact of the pandemic and of the sharp fall in international oil prices.

    The fund provided much needed liquidity support to respond to the urgent balance of payment needs.

    Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa Limited, explained that keeping with the credit terms, Nigeria commenced repayment of principal in 2023, with repurchases of 613 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR), followed by 1.2 billion and 1.8 billion in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

    Providing context, the facility although not solely contributed positively to improvement in domestic external position. Data on current account (CU) points to a surplus of $17.2 billion in 2024, marking a sharp contrast to the $16.0 billion deficit recorded in 2020.

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    Furthermore, the timely repayment is a positive and affirms credit worthiness of Nigeria in keeping to loan terms and proves healthy FX reserves buffer, in addition, the completion of debt principal repayment will reduce the FX-lied loan servicing burden and free up resources for budget.

    Following the Executive Board’s discussion of Nigeria, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said: “The COVID-19 outbreak—magnified by the sharp fall in international oil prices and reduced global demand for oil products—is severely impacting economic activity in Nigeria. These shocks have created large external and financing needs for 2020. Additional declines in oil prices and more protracted containment measures would seriously affect the real and financial sectors and strain the country’s financing.

     “The authorities’ immediate actions to respond to the crisis are welcome. The short-term focus on fiscal accommodation would allow for higher health spending and help alleviate the impact of the crisis on households and businesses. Steps taken toward a more unified and flexible exchange rate are also important and unification of the exchange rate should be expedited.

     “Once the COVID-19 crisis passes, the focus should remain on medium-term macroeconomic stability, with revenue-based fiscal consolidation essential to keep Nigeria’s debt sustainable and create fiscal space for priority spending. Implementation of the reform priorities under the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, particularly on power and governance, remains crucial to boost growth over the medium term”.