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Tag: implications

Igbos did’t consider implications of not voting Buhari -Moghalu

Chief George Moghalu is the National Auditor of the governing All Progresives Congress (APC). A seasoned politician and an administrator, he is one of the party leaders from the south east who fought day and night to ensure that President Muhammadu Buhari gets an appreciable number of votes from the region. In this interview with Tony Akowe, he speaks on the outcome of the just concluded Presidential election and the need to streamline the large number of political parties in the country.

THE APC again won the Presidential election without a significant contribution from the South East. What went wrong

The truth about it is that we did not achieve our desired expectations. I would have wished that we did alot better than we did in this election even though anybody on the side line would say it is an improvement on the poor outing in 2015. Certainly, we should have done better than we did because the government has been quite responsive to the south east. The President has shown great love and has done so many great and strategic things for us in the south east that should warrant our doing better than we did. But politics is all about what it is and you can never predict. I feel personally disappointed and I am sure that some other leaders also feel disappointed. I really can not access whether it is because our people have not actually understood the political implication because we are trying to seize a platform that we can use to actualise our ambition vis a viz 2023. So, i thought that this election was an opportunity for us to take over the platform and move in aggressively and take over the platform. But probably it was because one of us was given the Vice Presidential ticket of the other party or whatever. I really cant explain what went wrong. But I think it was not a good political move for us. But I believe very strongly that with time, it will continue to improve. We, as leaders of the party from the south east have an added responsibility to work harder to get our people to understand.

What do you think that the re-election of President Buhari mean for Nigerians?

For me, it is a reaffirmation and an expression of confidence. It is like telling somebody, you have done well and it places greater challenge. If you listen to the speech of the President when he received his certificate of return, it will show you a man that understand the added responsibility this re-election has given to him, it show you a man who has really dedicated himself to doing better than he has done. He has done quite well especially when you look at all the promises we made when we were coming in in 2015 as a party coming into government. Even at that, he has done extremely well and he believe also that with this re-election, Nigerians have said thank you for what you have done, but we expect you to do more. It is about Nigeria and not about him. So, it is a very welcome development. Its a wonderful thing that has happened and I know since this has happened, our party and government will still do more to justify the confidence of the Nigerian people.

There are those who believe that they worked for they worked for the party in 2015 and were not rewarded. Many of them have made more sacrifice, expecting thing to be better. What is your message to them?

Let us all be patient. Mr. President has said that things will be better and we also have a national chairman we believe that there should be a way of appreciating those who work for you as a way of encouraging them. He believe that doing so will also encourage others to know that loyalty pays, hard work pays and commitment also pays. I am sure that these set of people will not be forgotten this time around.

There is the believe that the position of the President on the leadership of the National Assembly was a tactical error that hunted the government so much. How will the party handle this issue this time around?

I am sure that the party has a role to play. All these people coming for the first time and those who got re-elected contested on the party platform. So, there is a canopy under which everybody is sitting and that canopy is the party. I am sure that with the dynamic leadership we have now, headed by Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the party will do what it is supposed to do. Once that is done, I am sure we will not have any problem. I am sure that all those elected believe in party supremacy and the fact tat the party has a role to play because it is the party that was elected. All the candidates are representatives of the party and i am sure they will subject themselves to the decisions of the party.

The opposition PDP said this election was a sham and their Presidential candidate said he was challenging the outcome at the tribunal. What is your view.

For me, every election must have only one winner and in this case, Buhari is the winner. Don’t forget that before Buhari was elected President, he lost election on three occasion and in all these three instances, he felt that a few things went wrong and he sought protection in the court. This is his right and he exercised it. If the PDP candidate has evidence of things he felt were not properly done, he has a right to either say this is the will of God, let us move on as a nation because Nigeria comes first before my ambition or I will go to court to prove my case. The two options are open to him. It is for him now to make his own choice. I am yet to see that election that would have been concluded and the loser comes out to say this is a wonderful election, except for our experience in 2015 when former President Jonathan conceded even before the final results were announced. For me, the election was not a sham, but a highly contested election and everybody knows that. Don’t forget that the President travelled to the 36 states of this country including the FCT. I don’t know whether the leadership of the other party did what we did by way of campaign. I understand how he felt. I have lost election before, so, I understand the feelings of the candidate of the PDP. My suggestion would have been, yes it has happened and the best thing to do is to congratulate the winner. If they don’t want to do that, they have a right to go to court to seek redress. As for the election, it was one of the freest and fairest in this country.

Considering the massive crowd that we saw at the campaign rallies of both parties, would you say the voter turnout was impressive?

The voter turn out was quite impressive because at the end of the day, we are looking at a voter turn out of about 28 million which i quite a huge number even though it did not meet up with our registered population. But you wont lose sight of the fact that we still need to continue voter education. Election is not a one off thing. Right now, notice has been given for the 2023 election because once you declare the result of a Presidential election, you have given notice of the next one. It require all of us, both the political players and the electoral umpires going back to the books to find out what we must do to encourage more voter turn out and what we must do to let our people know the importance of our PVC. As we get more people educated and politically aware, the volume will keep increasing. So, we need to sustain voter education. Like in our party, we are looking at doing things beyond the election, turning the party into an institution and not only just for election. We should have other roles to play and not only as a platform for contesting elections. We should go beyond that. Within this period that notice has been given, we need to keep up voter education and increase membership. If you look at the percentage of membership of the political parties, it is usually less than 20 percent of the population. Why cant we ensure that over 60 percent of registered voters in the country are members of our parties. So, we have alot of work to do. While we are doing that, INEC also have alot of work to do to perfect these card readers, perfect the voters register and other things that will help them so that we don’t start running from pillar to post one week to election trying to do things we would have done when we have time available to us. So, I think we need to sustain voter education and keep encouraging people to be part of the electoral process.

How would you rate the performance of INEC and the security agents in this election.

For me, there is quite an improvement from what happened in 2015 irrespective of the fact that INEC failed us when the postponed the election. But it was better for the election to be postponed than having something that is not worth the while. So, I think there is quite some level of improvement from what was done in 2015 which we all adjudged as reasonably ok compared to previous elections. So, what has happened now is that INEC did their best and we need to encourage them, we need to support them and build that electoral institution so that it wont be a one off thing. So, what we need to do is to support and encourage them and then address the areas of lapses critically. For example, the challenges of the card reader has continued to reoccur. We need to address that issue once and for all and get over with it. On the issue of the security, I think they did quite well despite the challenges. As we talk about voter education, you should understand that those who run he security agencies are also Nigerians and are entitled to good representation and good leadership. When people talk about security agencies, they speak as if they are come from the moon or as if they don’t buy from the same market. They also need to be part of what is happening and so, voter education and citizen responsibility, they should also be part of it because once you keep educating them, they become part of the system and then understand that there is a way you do policing during the election without military presence. Some people argued that we don’t need the Army to be involved and I said they should be involved to avoid threat to national security. They are not participating in the voting, but provide additional security. From what has been reported, when the Army arrest people, they hand them over to the police because it is the primary responsibility of the police. So, the Army is providing additional security because that is their primary responsibility. I think they did quite well and we need to support them.

We have so may political parties on the ballot and there is this argument that there is the need to streamline the parties and make them stronger. Do you think we should reduce the number of parties?

I think the number is becoming very unwealthy. In this last election, we had 73 political parties that contested the Presidency and some of them came out with very ridiculous scores in country where we have over 80 million registered voters. That goes to show that some people have turned it into a joke. I think we must create the base. For me, if you don’t have representation in the National Assembly, you don’t have a reason to exist as a political party. So, i am of the school of thought that the number is unwealthy and we must create opportunities on how the number can be reasonably reduced. If you notice the trend now, it is going towards a two party system. It is all about APC, PDP while the others re there in number. Some people may be excited being called National Chairman. That may be the basis for their satisfaction and so, you allow that to massage their ego. Other wise I don’t think it is necessary have political parties that year after year, don’t win even a councillor and are still being called political parties. There are some names I saw n screen that I cant even remember if I have seen them before or what they stand for. I think the number is quite high and something need to be done in that regard.

March 3, 2019
The Dapchi debacle and wider implications

WHILE arguments are still raging over whether the Muhammadu Buhari presidency demonstrated incompetence both before and after the abduction of the 110 Government Girls Science and Technical College (GGSTC), Dapchi, Yobe State, on February 19, many commentators remind everyone that some 112 schoolgirls from Government Girls College Chibok, Borno State, are still being held in Boko Haram captivity, the remnant from the April 14-15, 2014 abduction that shook the world. They also remind the country that beyond fighting Boko Haram, nothing else is being done about studying and understanding the sect in order to find a resounding victory and closure. Yes, the style of the terrorists has not changed. Indeed, what has appeared to change is the identity of the abductors. For, unlike the Chibok abductions masterminded by the Abubakar Shekau faction of Boko Haram, the Dapchi attack was carried out by the Abu Musab Al-Barnawi faction of the Boko Haram sect.

Those close to the leadership of the Al-Barnawi faction have attempted to console Nigerians by suggesting that the abductors, this time, are more humane, and that the girls would be released sooner than expected. Cold comfort. What is evident beyond the mere act of the abduction, or the humaneness of the abductors, or the arguable incompetence of the Buhari government, is that the government, like the Goodluck Jonathan presidency before it, appears to be waiting for the end of the insurgency to demonstrate what lessons it has learnt from the crisis and how it intends to find a closure. But that general and unending slothfulness has proved very costly. It is not only inadvisable to wait for that indefinable end to come, it is a much more depressing indicator that no coherent policies are in place to tackle the whole gamut of the insurgency. Indeed that gamut is huge and getting increasingly insurmountable.

Just like the Jonathan government, the current government seems more preoccupied with fighting and defeating Boko Haram, and indeed many other threats to national security, than any other thing. That they only give some cursory thoughts to the post-Boko Haram era is not quite as reassuring as it should be. But implicit in their actions and policies, not to say in the amorphous structure of their government and personnel, are clear indications that no lessons have been learnt, are being learnt, or are willing to be learnt from the multiple threats to national security, particularly the Boko Haram insurgency. With the entire country almost drenched in blood, and with the government apparently overwhelmed and limited to essentially reacting to the threats, rather than being proactive, Nigerians are beginning to fear that their leaders lack the depth and breadth needed to understand and govern an increasingly globalised, complex and conflictive country. This conclusion is not mistaken, though Nigerians must be in a quandary whether to dismiss each government for incompetence or boldly engage another one without any hope either would be better.

When the Chibok abductions took place in 2014, the Jonathan government was caught flat-footed. In the hours after the tragedy, not to say days and weeks after, that government moved from flat-footedness to living and operating in denial. The Buhari presidency has on the contrary revelled in showcasing the difference between its own reaction to Dapchi and that of Dr Jonathan on Chibok. President Muhammadu Buhari, Nigerians were told, immediately acknowledged the abductions and described it as a national disaster. The Information minister, Lai Mohammed, together with a few other government officials visited Yobe State, conferred with state officials who briefed them, and gave assurance that the government would do everything to rescue the girls. Indeed, the Information minister told the media that the Buhari presidency had mobilised all military and security nsurgency. It is in fact both compelling and urgent for the government to demonstrate a clear and comprehensive understanding of the revolt in the Northeast as well as design adequate and fitting responses. To do these, the state governments where the revolts have taken place and other states where similar revolts might break out sometime in the future must meet minds with the federal government to tackle the whole gamut of the crisis. So far, they have not indicated that perceptiveness and resolve.

Last Thursday, the Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, spoke in Abuja about the low investment in education in Borno and Yobe States as a contributory factor in sowing the seeds of terrorism in the region. He is right, even though the malaise is not limited to only the Northeast. Both Borno and Yobe States, not to say other states in the North and elsewhere, must find the will to invest heavily in education to take idle and unskilled hands off the streets. If canon fodders are not available, mischief makers would find nothing to do with their canons.

But low investment in education is not the only problem. States, particularly in the less secular North, must begin to recognise that of all the revolts that complicate law enforcement, religious insurrections are the most difficult to deal with. As the beginnings of the Northeast revolt showed, Borno State, the epicentre of the Boko Haram insurgency, had a history of official romance with religious fundamentalism. Once a huge misunderstanding broke out between the clerics and the government, it was unlikely to be limited to religious circles only. The misunderstanding immediately widened and sucked the government into its red vortex. If these troubled states will not draw a line between the democracy they claim to practice and the theocracy they seem to long for, they may be unable to prevent the widening of misunderstandings anytime they rear their heads. The official dalliance with religious groups, especially fiery sects, must be deliberately and sensibly restricted if violent eruptions are to be averted. The federal government has not seemed to focus its mind in this direction at all.

Mallam El-Rufai may be right in his Abuja exposition last week about the education crisis confronting the Northeast and elsewhere, but much more than that, the region’s frightening poverty index and high population growth rate would sooner than later predispose the northern states as a whole to other forms of social and economic revolts. The region faces a time bomb. The Northeast states must begin to find ways of reconciling birth control with the region’s dominant religious concept of family and procreation. Population growth may be an electoral asset and a tool for cornering a significant portion of revenue allocation, but a sensible government with an eye on the future, a government more concerned about peace and stability and development, will cleverly embrace the imperatives of political and economic restructuring in the truest sense of federalism. Any other solution, such as sermonising about peaceful co-existence which President Buhari has unwisely limited himself to, will not only fail to work, it will in the long run be counterproductive.

By all means, the country must plan and work to defeat Boko Haram, which is the principal terrorist organisation afflicting the country at the moment. But far more desirably, the Buhari presidency must show that it understands the complex issues involved, and compel itself boldly and revolutionarily to engage the right methods to deal with the existential crisis confronting the country. It has neither shown the needed brilliance nor found the courage to do what is required and practicable, and has as a matter of fact never spoken about breaking the mould in tackling these dangerous issues. But except brilliant remedies are applied, even after Boko Haram is finally and completely defeated, there will be a recrudescence of the crisis on some inauspicious tomorrow. And as every epidemiologist knows, a second break out is notoriously difficult to manage.

The Dapchi abduction, it is hoped, has also finally persuaded the government of the dangers of spreading military resources thin, especially because of the military’s needless exposure to police duties. If the government is to have enough assets to hold recaptured territories and not expose itself to the embarrassing abductions Boko Haram militants have seemed adept at, then both the presidency and the Defence Headquarters must recognise the danger of their seemingly casual approach to military deployments. The Dapchi tragedy was embarrassing and inexcusable, and despite the Information minister’s exultant statements about the Buhari government’s prompt response, neither the president himself, who has carried on blithely as if he is unable to comprehend the scale of the disaster, nor his military top brass, who have said or done little to reassure a grieving and apprehensive country, have handled the aftermaths of the abductions with the gravity and adroitness the situation demands.

March 10, 2018
Health implications of current heat waves
SIR: The atmosphere these days is becoming increasingly hot and unbearable. The development which has caused profuse perspiration and does not seem to have reprieve even at nights is the effect of global warming currently sweeping across the globe.

This climate change is becoming an emerging public health concerns. The high temperature coupled with humidity has led to mortality and morbidity where it continues unabatedly through the night. The body becomes exhausted and overwhelmed and may react to this situation mildly or severely from minor symptoms like psychological stress, heat rash, heat cramps, chicken pox to extreme cases like heat syncope, exhaustion, meningitis, fainting and strokes which may lead to neurological damage and even death.

This period of heightened temperature with adverse bodily effects is what is referred to as heat wave. With increase in the body’s temperature, central nervous and circulatory systems are impacted. The most vulnerable to heat waves are children, elderly, sedentary urban dwellers who do not have access to air conditioners and those whose apartments do not have windows that allow for ventilation of air. Others are obese and people with certain medical conditions, even diuretic drugs for treatment of high blood pressure and medications for mental health conditions have been found to be susceptible to heat and can worsen the condition of the patients.

Where electricity is not available especially at night hours, the tendency would be to keep both doors and windows ajar. This could be an open invitation to dangerous reptiles and men of the underworld, so care must be taken so that one does not jump from fry pan to fire.

Air conditioners have been found to be effective in cooling room temperature but fans actually aggravate such situations because of the hot air they blow.

It is reported that heat waves kill more Americans than other natural disaster like floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and tsunamis.

World Metrological Organization had predicted prolonged and extreme hot weather across the world. It arrived at this conclusion after compiling data from over 80 weather agencies around the world. It is recorded that 2016 was the world hottest year, unfortunately it has so far not changed and this trend has not shown signs of abating soon.

Nigerian Metrological Agency has also corroborated this report and therefore warned that Nigerians will experience warmer nights and hotter days. Nigerians living in the northern flank of the country are already trying to adjust to this adverse weather condition. In some parts, the heat of the sun is reportedly felt as early as 7am; experts have warned that Nigerians should avoid long exposure to the sun.

But in a clime where many of its citizens are subsistent farmers who work manually and spend endless hours in their farms to either till the land or harvest their crops, such warnings are easily ignored. Effects of being exposed to the sun for a long time should rather be explained to them; so that they would limit the time they spend outside.

Similarly, vendors hawking sundry articles on busy Nigerian roads spend their days under the sun. The advice here is that they spend sometimes under shades to reduce impacts of the sun on their skins.

It is advisable to stay under shades of trees, bathe regularly and enough water should be taken in order to prevent dehydration during this period. Also, virtually all fruits are good for the body in times like this, but fruits and vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumber, leafy greens, berries, coconut water, water melon are among the best, even spicy pepper is recommended because it can stimulate heat receptors in the mouth that enhances circulation which produces sweat that cools down the body. Also, frequent checks of the body’s blood pressure are recommended. Sun screen and sun lotion with solar protection can be of help to the eyes and the body respectively.

Alcoholic drinks and beverages such as spirits, coffee, caffeinated drinks, sodas and also smoking of tobacco are more dangerous to the body during this period.

But the solution to adverse effects of global warming still remains the sustained tree planting culture. With desert encroachment in some parts of the northern part of the country resulting in depleted vegetation and wind erosion, this is the inevitable action to take in other to stay alive.
- Itaobong Etim,
Calabar.
February 23, 2018
Nganjiwa: Implications of Court of Appeal judgment, by Falana

Activist lawyer Mr Femi Falana (SAN) writes that the Court of Appeal judgment in the appeal filed by Justice Hyeladzira Nganjiwa could have “far-reaching implications”, if allowed to stand.

I am unable to persuade myself to share the views of some learned colleagues who have argued that the judgment delivered on Tuesday, December 12, 2017 by the Lagos Judicial Division of the Court of Appeal in the case of the Honourable Justice Hyeldzira Ajiya Ngangiwa v Federal Republic of Nigeria (Appeal No CA/L/969c/2017) has clothed Nigerian judges with immunity. It is indisputable that the sole legal issue decided by the Court is that a serving judicial officer cannot be charged with a criminal offence in any court by any prosecution agency unless and until he/she has been subjected to the disciplinary jurisdiction of the National Judicial Council.

The Hon Justice Abimbola Obaseki-Adejumo who read the leading judgment of the Court and her learned brothers who concurred with her Ladyship are not unaware of the case of Fawehinmi v Inspector-General of Police (2002) NWLR (PT 767) 606 wherein the Supreme Court held that notwithstanding the immunity conferred on the President and state governors they can be investigated even though they cannot be charged with any criminal offence until the expiration of their term of office.

The Court of Appeal has not said that judges cannot be investigated by the anti graft agencies. On the contrary, the Court conceded that judges can be investigated but that the report of any criminal investigation indicting them should be turned over to the National Judicial Council which will deal with it as a complaint of misconduct and possibly recommend the removal and prosecution of such judges to the appointing authorities before they can be arraigned in court. Realising that the judgment might be misunderstood or misinterpreted the Court made it abundantly clear that “no judicial officers is covered by immunity from prosecution under the Constitution as the Constitution only grants the powers to discipline judicial officers for official misconduct to the NJC.”

Having read and digested the landmark judgment which has generated an interesting debate in legal circles I have come to the irresistible conclusion that it was a protest judicial decision against the special treatment being accorded to certain personalities and criminal suspects by the Buhari administration in the prosecution of the war against corruption. Hence the Court did not cite any decided case in Nigeria or any other common law country.

In fact, their Ladyship and Lordships said, ex abundanti cautela, that the judgment had taken judicial notice of the decision of the President of the Republic to set up a panel of inquiry to probe a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation and a former Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency. As far as the Court is concerned, indicted judges deserve to be treated, in like manner, before they can be properly prosecuted in a court of law.

It is however doubtful if the Court of Appeal was aware of the fact that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) had reported the judges on trial to the National Judicial Council which had endorsed the prosecution and placed the judges on suspension pending the conclusion of their trial. The position of the NJC cannot be faulted in the circumstance because the Supreme Court has ruled in the cases of Garba v University of Maiduguri 1986) 2 NWLR (Pt 18) 559 and Federal Civil Service Commission v Laoye (1989) All N.L.R 350, that administrative bodies lack the vires to determine the civil rights and obligations of any person accused of committing a criminal offence in Nigeria.

Regrettably, our colleagues who have been celebrating the landmark judgment have not considered the fact that it has exposed our judges to greater danger. For instance, the criminal case filed against of one of the judges arrested by the Department of State Security (DSS) last year was dismissed by the trial court in his favour. Consequently, the judge was reinstated and was allowed to resume duty in his court.

He has just been recommended for compulsory retirement by the NJC following another case of misconduct. But assuming that the President had dismissed the judge based on the recommendation of the NJC which might have found him guilty of the allegation of corrupt practices levelled against him by the DSS he would not have been reinstated since the dismissal would have been premised on the civil offence of misconduct. It is common knowledge that the age long practice of interdicting public officers on trial pending the conclusion of criminal cases pending against them is to prevent a situation whereby they are removed from the public service on account of criminal allegations that have not gone through the crucible of cross examination. But once they are discharged and acquitted they are reinstated with all the rights and privileges.

Therefore, by asking that judges be disciplined by the NJC before they are prosecuted the Court of Appeal has made it impossible to reinstate such judicial officers even if they are eventually discharged and acquitted. With respect, such unintended consequence of the judgment has made a mockery of judicial independence and further exposed our judges to danger.

However, since the judgment has seriously questioned the inconsistency of the federal government in the prosecution of the war on corruption the Court of Appeal has equally challenged our judges to apply the law to all citizens without fear or favour. Out of ingenuity some lawyers are going to invoke the constitutional right of equality of all citizens before the law to challenge the validity of the criminal cases pending against some civil servants on the grounds that the administrative jurisdiction of the Federal Public Service Commission has not been invoked against them. More so, that the NJC, the Federal Civil Service Commission and other executive bodies have been created by section 158 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 as amended.

Even professionals in the private sector who are standing trial for corruption will rely on the judgment of the Court of Appeal and insist on going through administrative procedure before they can be prosecuted in any court. For instance, a medical doctor who is charged with murder in a state high court for killing a patient in a hospital due to criminal negligence may challenge the case on the grounds that the Medical and Dental Practitioners Tribunal has not been given the opportunity to try the allegation of professional misconduct which informed the criminal prosecution. If such preliminary objections are filed the trial courts may have no choice than to uphold them as they are bound to follow the judgment of the Court of Appeal in the case of the Honourable Justice Hyeldzira Ajiya Ngangiwa v Federal Republic of Nigeria (supra).

Finally, in view of the foregoing, it is indubitably clear that the judgment has far reaching implications for the judiciary, the anti graft agencies and other law enforcement agencies as well as the Buhari administration which has loudly proclaimed to be fighting a war against corruption and impunity in the country. It is therefore hoped that the EFCC will not hesitate to challenge the controversial judgment of the Court of Appeal at the Supreme Court.

January 2, 2018
Osun West by-election and its implications for 2018
A commentator, Debo Ayoade, examines the implications of the Osun West senatorial by-election for the next year’s governorship election in the State of Living Springs.

On Saturday, July 8, the electorate in Osun West Senatorial District will go to the poll in a by-election to fill the vacant seat of the Late Senator Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke. Osun State has being a two party State since the inception of this Republic. The dominating parties have been the All Progressives Congress (APC) or any of its progressive forebears, that is Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress or Action Congress of Nigeria on one part and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on the other part. Efforts by other parties to encroach by poaching aspirants who were dis-satisfied with the above political parties for one reason or the other in Osun State, have not succeeded so far like in other states. For both parties therefore, it matters that the forthcoming election is won, as it will be a psychological boost for 2018 governorship election in the State.

Otunba Ademola Nurudeen Adeleke of the PDP and Senator Mudasiru Oyetunde Husain of the APC personify the proverbial “two horse race”. Otunba Ademola Adeleke is the junior brother of the Late Senator Isiaka Adeleke, whilst Senator Mudasiru Husain was the Senator who represented the senatorial constituency between 2011 and 2015. Otunba Adeleke had earlier made his intention to run for the seat known within the APC fold but shifted his allegiance to PDP, when the National Working Committee (NWC) of APC gave Senator Husain was given the nod to run by APC’s NWC. The Screening Committee and the Screening Appeal Committee had earlier disqualified Husain from running for the by-election.

The issues likely to come up during the campaign are multifarious. Whilst other issues may still come up, some issues that will definitely be raised are as follows:
1. Will there be sympathy votes for Otunba Adeleke in view of the fact that his elder brother Senator Isiaka Adeleke just died?
2. Will the votes of Ede, the town where the Adelekes hail be sufficient to deliver the senatorial district for PDP?
3. Will it make a difference that Senator Husain hail from Ejigbo, the town that also produce the Speaker of Osun State House of Assembly and the Honourable Member House of Representatives hail from Ejigbo, a town within the same federal constituency as Ede and one of the three federal constituencies in the senatorial district?
4. Will the issue of the negative reportage of the government of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola affect the fortunes of Senator Husain?
5. Will party loyalty prevail in APC despite rumblings within the ranks of some party leaders personally close to the Governor?
6. And will the senatorial by-election affect the 2018 governorship race?
Unlike other States where either by-election or general election has taken place in recent times, PDP is not divided on the candidature of Otunba Adeleke. He is more or less a consensus candidate. The reason is not far-fetched. Senator Iyiola Omisore being a smart politician used the opportunity of the candidature of Otunba Adeleke to close ranks with the Adeleke family and with the Sheriff Faction, which is obviously more on ground in Osun. He belongs to the Makarfi Faction. He also had brouhaha with the Late Senator Adeleke, who was reportedly rough-handled by Senator Omisore’s pal and former Minister for Police Affairs Jelili Adesiyan in 2014 at Ideal Nest Hotel, Osogbo during the PDP governorship election screening and primaries.

In the up coming election, Ede will definitely vote for theirs, as they did for the elder brother. My prediction however is that even in Ede, the victory will not be landslide. There are already complaints and anxieties among the elites of Ede and even in the camp of Senator Isiaka Adeleke about attempt to turn Ede into “Kwara”. Otunba Adeleke’s father was a Senator in the second republic under the banner of Unity Party of Nigeria; his brother, the late Senator Isiaka Adeleke was a Governor (1992 – 1993) and served twice as Senator (2007 – 2011 and 2015 – 2017).

While Senator Husain from Ejigbo was serving, the lot fell on an Ede man to become the Honourable Member, House of Representatives. With the stepping down of Senator Husain in 2015 and the emergence of Senator Isiaka Adeleke from Ede however, the lot correspondingly fell on an Ejigbo man as Honourable Member, House of Representatives. There is no visible indication at the moment that where Senator Husain comes from would matter in this election. It may one more time be an acid test of the robust, matured and enlightened politics of South Western Nigeria.

Despite the explanation of the State Government that what it pays the civil servant is what it can afford at the moment and what it agreed with the Labour Union to pay, Osun has become a metaphor for non-payment of salaries.

The Osun State APC Reactionary Forces recently emerged. The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives Honourable Lasun Yussuff represents one fold. He hitherto belonged to Aregbesola’s kitchen cabinet and was highly favoured by Ogbeni Aregbesola. They however fell apart on June 9, 2015 when Honourable Lasun Yusuf decided to disobey the southwest leadership of the party’s decision to support Honourable Femi Gbajabiamila’s ambition to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives. He chose to run instead as the Deputy Speaker. He has obviously lost favour of the party leadership in the state and in southwest. No party leader is known to be supporting his bid to be governor.

The second fold of reactionary forces within Osun APC are Alhaji Fatai Diekola and Honourable SundayAkere, who was the erstwhile Commissioner for Information and Strategy. They fell out with the Governor for a plethora of reasons. Chiefly among these are their claim that the Governor was running the state government alone, without a cabinet and without consulting party leaders and stakeholders, before decisions are taken.

The variables to the query relating to the consequence of the outcome of the 2017 senatorial by-election vis a vis the 2018 governorship election in Osun State are too numerous. APC, judging from all the previous elections in the state, is clearly the party to beat. Will the party-faithfuls tow the party line and vote according to party dictate? Are there intra-party squabbles that have not reared its ugly head?

It is difficult to see if peradventure Otunba Ademola Adeleke wins the election, he will desire to run for governorship. He seems too green and unprepared for this. He may however be relevant when PDP is choosing who will run as running mate to the gubernatorial candidate, if the PDP governorship candidate is not from Osun West. If he loses the election on the other hand, it will amount to a short journey to “neverland”. It will most likely be one of the shortest political careers in history. It will also be a severe blow for the ego of his family.

It is sufficient to say at the moment that in PDP, Senator Iyiola Omisore is trying his possible best to mend fences with Sheriff’s faction. He is from Ile-Ife and contested the 2014 governorship election against Governor Aregbesola. He is obviously warming up. He has been delivering lectures and repackaging himself. He also has financial muscle to flex; this will matter as PDP is no longer in power. During the 2014 governorship election he chose Rt. Hon. Adejare Bello from Ede as his running mate, he may consider picking Otunba Ademola Adeleke, if the latter becomes a Senator.

Since Senator Iyiola Omisore is just mending fence with the ‘recognised’ PDP, others who are interested and eminently qualified may shut him out. They must however speak in unison and be resolute, which however is almost impossible in politics. Otherwise, he still seems to be the most potent force in PDP. Apart from Senator Iyiola Omisore, the other possible PDP contestants include:
1. Alhaji Fatai Akinbade (Ogbagba, Osun West). Former Secretary Osun State Government;
2. Chief Lere Oyewumi (Ikire, Osun West). Former Local Government Chairman, Former House of Representatives Member, presently Commissioner, National Population Commission;
3. Rt. Hon. Adejare Bello (Ede, Osun West). Former Speaker Osun State House of Assembly, Senator Omisore’s running mate;
4. Senator Kola Ogunwale (Iragbiji, Osun Central), Senator 2003 – 2007
5. Barrister Kayode Oduoye (Ikirun, Osun Central), Ifelodun, Boripe, Odo-Otin Federal Constituency candidate 2015; and
6. Dr. Ayoade Adewopo (Ile-Ife, Osun East), a lawyer and academia; and
7. Chief Gbenga Owolabi (Ile-Ife, Osun East). Former Chairman, Ife East Local Government.
Since Aregbesola is from Osun East senatorial district, will Senator Omisore still run for the governorship seat? The politics of zoning in Osun State is very interesting. Osun like every other state has three senatorial districts; West, Central and East. Osun also has nine federal constituencies, each senatorial district having three constituencies each. West – Iwo, Ikire, Ede; Central – Osogbo, Ikirun, Ila; and East – Ife, Ijesa South, Ijesa North. Whereas in the first republic, the entire Osun State as it is now has six Administrative Divisions, coincidentally, there are two each in every senatorial districts. West – Iwo and Ede, Central – Osogbo and Ila; and East – Ife and Ijesa. There are five sub-ethnic groups in Osun – Igbomina Osun, Osun Osun, Oyo Osun, Ife Osun and Ijesa Osun. All the military administrators were not from Osun State, meanwhile, there have been four civilian governors in the state. The Governors are as follows:
1. Senator Isiaka Adeleke (1992 – 1993). Osun West Senatorial District, Ede Federal Constituency, Ede Division, Oyo Osun;
2. Chief Adebisi Akande (1999 – 2003). Osun Central, Ila Federal Constituency, Ila Division, Igbomina Osun;
3. Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola (2003 – 2010). Osun Central Senatorial District, Ifelodun, Boripe, Odo-Otin Federal Constituency, Ila Division, Osun Osun; and
4. Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola (2010 – till date). Osun East, Ijesa South Federal Constituency, Ijesa Division, Ijesa Osun.
Whilst it is obvious that at no point did Osun people sat to decide on zoning, it is only fair that geographical spread principle are adopted. Osun West have argued that it has been long the governorship came to their senatorial district, the Iwo bloc have maintained that if it has to come to West, it should be Iwo Division. The Osogbo Division argues that they are equally entitled, since their divisions have also been eluded. The Ife people have additionally indicated that although Aregbesola is from their senatorial district, he is not only from another Division but also from another sub-ethnic group. Stating that all other sub-ethnic groups have been opportune to produce governor except Ife.

The following are the potential governorship candidates of APC:
1. Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola (Iragbiji, Osun Central). The Chief of Staff to the Governor;
2. Alhaji Moshood Adeoti (Iwo, Osun West). Former Local Government Caretaker Chairman, Former Party Chairman, current Secretary to State Government;
3. Rt. Hon. Nojeem Salaam (Ejigbo, Osun West). Speaker, Osun State House of Assembly;
4. Elder Peter Babalola (Ikire, Osun West). Former Commissioner and Chief of Staff.
5. Barrister Kunle Adegoke (Osogbo, Osun Central). Practising Legal Practitioner;
6. Senator Babajide Omoworare (Ile-Ife, Osun East). Former Majority Leader, currently a Senator;
7. Barrister Ajibola Bashir (Osogbo, Osun Central), Former Commissioner, current Attorney General;
8. Hon. Mojeed Alabi (Ejigbo, Osun West). Former Speaker, House of Assembly, currently Honourable Member, House of Representatives; and
9. Mr. Bola Oyebamiji (Ikire, Osun West). Former Managing Director, Osun State Investment Company, currently Finance Commissioner.
As a sidekick, I think I should mention that in spite of the fact that generally speaking, religion does not make any difference in Osun State, nay, the whole of South Western Nigeria. The Osun State Governor seems to have up the ante in this regard that the Christians are clamouring for the governorship. If I may ask rhetorically, why would Otunba Ademola Adeleke change his middle name with which he registered as a voter overnight from “Jackson” to “Nurudeen”? Ede is predominantly Muslim, Otunba Adeleke’s father’s religion; but he obviously hitherto practised his mother’s religion, Christianity.

In conclusion, it is not clear whether zoning would be adopted or not. In view of its “triple barrel effect” it is also not clear what effect the victory of Senator Mudasiru Husain at the 8th July election may potential have on zoning in Osun State. Not with standing that it is on everyone’s tongue that the Governor and some leaders already have a favourite, it may be a hoax and some under dogs among the potentials may actually be supported.
- Ayoade, an advertising executive and communications consultant from Ede, Osun State, writes from Lagos.
July 6, 2017
Implications of Trump presidency for Africa

With the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America, there are indications that the country’s relationship with various regions of the world would change. Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines how his administration will affect US-African relations.

WITH the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States, a new chapter has opened in United States-African relations. His emergence raised fundamental questions about what is likely to change in America’s role in the world; every region of the world, including Africa, has been pondering over how it will impact on them.
The fear of African countries was aggravated by the silence of the then Republican candidate on Africa throughout the campaign. He did not give any indication about his policy direction as far as Africa is concerned. While Trump’s campaign had focused heavily on US relations with Russia and China, he didn’t talk about Africa from a policy perspective.
The US relationship with Africa has strengthened significantly under the presidency of Barack Obama, as evidenced by initiatives such as the first US-African Leaders Summit and the US-Africa Business Summit in August 2014, with over 1,000 participants in attendance.
Under Trump, there may be changes; if his general comments during the campaign are anything to go by. Trump had said in one of his campaign outings that if he were to become president, he would seek to renegotiate all of the US foreign trade deals. He prefers bilateral trade agreements (BITs), rather than multi-party agreements, such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has been a critical programme for US-African relations since the era of former President Bill Clinton.
AGOA was signed into law in 2000. It offers incentive for African countries to export their products to the US. In 2013, AGOA imports into the US totalled $26.8 billion. While Trump has voiced out his opposition to the TPP, he is yet to comment on AGOA. But his declaration “to put American first” casts doubt over the continuance of AGOA and other favourable trade arrangements with Africa. Experts in international trade have predicted that AGOA may be subject to particular scrutiny under Trump, as it promotes African imports to the US without simultaneously promoting US exports to Africa. Multi-party agreements like AGOA contribute to the trade deficit that Trump has criticised repeatedly. Thanks to AGOA, the US has had a trade deficit with sub-Saharan African for many years. In 2014, the US exported $25.38 billion worth of goods to sub-Saharan African countries, while importing $26.75 billion. The deficit was more pronounced in 2013 prior to the dip in the commodities market, with $39.29 billion in imports and $23.94 billion in exports.
In the area of foreign aid, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) committed $10 billion to sub-Saharan Africa in 2014 alone. USAID is the only platform through which the US supplies assistance to Africa. Other programmes, such as the Peace Corps, the State Department, the Millennium Challenge Corporation and the Department of Agriculture provides significance assistance to non-profit organisations, small businesses, governments and individuals across the continent.
This, according to experts, is likely to change under Trump’s presidency. They premised their argument on his promise that he would lower the amount of foreign aid that the US sends abroad; though he has not specified how he would implement the cuts. Africa is the largest beneficiary of US aid. A sudden decrease in aid would undoubtedly have a significant disruptive impact on many countries on the continent, such as Rwanda which relies on it for about half of its budget.
Trump’s immigration policy is likely to be anti-Africa. He has, for example, repeatedly announced that as president, he would ban all foreign Muslims from entering the United States, at least temporarily. This policy would undoubtedly alienate many ally countries on the continent. It is not clear if Trump would extend the ban to Muslim Heads of State, of which there are several dozen. Around 30 per cent of sub-Saharan are Muslims, while the North African countries are predominantly Muslims. For instance, 50 per cent of Nigeria’s population is Muslim, including President Muhammadu Buhari.
In addition, Trump has vowed to increase standards for the admission of refugees and asylum seekers. He cited abuses of the refugee-immigration system as impetus for his policy. Strict enforcement of this policy through scrutiny of potential refugees will significantly affect some population of Africans. African countries such as Sudan, Eritrea and Congo are among the 10 top countries seeking US refugees.
Besides, voluntary immigrants from Africa have accounted for an increasing number of immigrants to the US in recent years. According to records, in 200o, there were 881,000 African-born immigrants living in the US, compared to the 1.8 million in 2013. Many Africans enter the US through the diversity visa programme, which requires a high school education or equivalent, or two years experience in an occupation that requires at least two years of training or experience. This policy, which encourages legal immigration from countries other than the sending countries of current immigrants to the US, may likely be reviewed by the Trump administration.
Last year, the US Census Bureau reports that the country exported 43.44 billion worth of goods to Nigeria and imported $1.92 billion, making it a significant trade partner. In 2013, the office of the United States Trade Representative notes that Nigeria was 40th largest good export market and the 30th largest goods market for the US. Besides, Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, and has significant political economy on the continent. Although US-Nigeria relation strengthened under President Obama, a policy such as the ban which Trump has threatened to introduce would wear on the budding partnership.
A United Nations diplomat, Robinson Thomas, has advocated greater security cooperation between the Trump presidency and African countries. He said: “We expect the greatest continuity in US-Africa relations in the area of security co-operation, specifically on counter-terrorism, with Africom likely to emerge as the central pillar of the new administration’s engagement with the continent. Created in 2007, Africom has already been expanded under Obama and Trump’s consistent rhetoric on tackling Islamist terrorism makes it extremely likely that counter-terrorism operations in Africa will receive priority funding as other overseas spending is reduced.
Thomas added: “The reduced relevance of Africa under Trump combined with past expressions of support for the tactics of leaders such as Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad raise concerns over the degree to which the US will in future provide checks on questionable practices by allies, such as disregard for human rights.
“Certain governments may further seek to position themselves more overtly as allies in this fight in order to secure other funding or to use the same tactics for what is effectively internal repression of dissent. Furthermore, Trump’s call during the campaign for restrictions on Muslim immigration to the US has alienated many Muslim Africans, and any closer cooperation between the US and African allies particularly where domestic tactics are seen as heavy-handed are likely to further drive recruitment for terrorist groups. How this play out will vary by country, as local issues tend to dominate as drivers of recruitment and strategy for such groups.
“We expect the projection of American soft power in Africa to look very different under Trump compared to previous administrations. Support for civil society, and programmes such as Power Africa, are likely to have funding cut, partially to be redirected back at home. While this is unlikely to directly impact on American business, it does leave even more space for competing ideas on what is an appropriate model for African development and the values on which that is based. Authoritarian-led development models have received a lot of attention in recent years off the back of strong growth in Ethiopia and Rwanda, and industrial policy has seen resurgence as a tool for economic transformation”.
A Nigerian scholar in International Relations, Dr Chidi Okafor, said Trump presidency will plunge the US into unprecedented territory and presages which may turn out to be the biggest overhaul in US foreign policy since the Second World War. He said Trump’s opposition to multi-lateral trade deals and abrasive policy stances, including a proposed ban on Muslim immigrants, threats to kill the families of terrorists and a plan to build a wall on the Mexico border have provoked concern among international allies.
Okafor said: “Trumps frequent diatribes against globalisation, focussing on a rigged system that delivers prosperity and jobs to other countries at the expense of the US hints at a radical departure from the country’s post-war international consensus. With Trump’s often spontaneous utterances veering wildly from isolationism to heavy-handed interventionism, many have confidently predicted the likely impact of a Trump presidency on African relations.
“Trump’s consistent opposition to multi-lateral trade deals could endanger the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a landmark piece of legislation introduced in the Clinton era which gives African countries tariff free access to the US market. Barack Obama signed off on a 10 year extension to the Act aimed at creating 350,000 African jobs. The Act enabled US trade with sub-Saharan African of $52.1 billion in 2014. Trump has yet to single out AGOA, but his frequently expressed opposition to free trade deals, including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) signed by Clinton and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, introduced by Barack Obama is likely to concern African states involved in AGOA.”
On climate change, Okafor said the disposition of Trumps will affect Africa. According to him, Africa is likely to be the continent most affected by climate change, with huge impacts on water and food security. “But Trump does not believe in climate change. He has said he will cancel the Paris climate change agreement and cut federal climate change programmes.
“This position is likely to result in hastening the impacts of climate change on the rest of the world, most especially Africa, while at the same time derailing international efforts to help the world’s poorest countries with new environmental challenges,” Okafor concluded.

January 24, 2017
Implications of Change Manifesto (3)

The ethic of change requires that those who fought murderously against change are not allowed to become decision makers in the party of change

Last week, we concluded that fighting corruption would require addressing the facilitation of corruption by a political structure that creates utter alienation between the citizenry and government, in particular the destruction of the country’s tradition of federal governance and installation over the years of a unitary governance structure and culture. We also warned the new president against surrendering to any effort to blackmail him by those who want to be seen as heroes of the Jonathan national dialogue of 2014 and of the cosmetic devolution in the constitutional amendments recently rejected by President Jonathan.

The argument in this respect is that recommendations from the Jonathan national conference and the amendments from the departing legislature lack proper democratic participation by citizens, especially that both lack opportunity for citizen participation by the way of referendum. Following the axiom of “What is worth doing at all is worth doing well,” the president should be given the opportunity to employ a proper process and move away from the notion that any respectable federal system can be sustained with federal allocation to federating units from rents collection. The column today will continue the discussion of implications of Change Manifesto for the way the country is governed by the new president and the All Progressives Congress in the next four years.

Given the mass defection from the PDP to the APC since the presidential election, it is important for the new president and his party to be cautious about politicians who are afraid of opposition and thus need to rush to every new party that is in power. It is normal for the wary to pay attention to the rush to the new governing party by those who served as cheer leaders in the last sixteen years to the PDP in its personalisation of the state.

A Yoruba proverb: Agbara ojo ko nioun o nii w’ole, onile ni ko nii gba fun un (Flood from rain does not shy away from destroying houses, it is the landlords that must guard against this) is worth the attention of the new president and his party. Those who participated in encouraging the PDP to disregard and misjudge the citizenry to the point of losing citizens’ confidence may not be coming to the president’s party because they believe in the platform of change. The exodus from the party of yesterday to the party of today may be because the defectors or carpet crossers, to put it euphemistically, are afraid of not having immediate access to a new political patronage network. The ethic of change requires that those who fought murderously against change are not allowed to become decision makers in the party of change. Defectors would need to be watched, not necessarily by leaving them with “empty stomachs” as President Jonathan has feared while APC members are overfed from the loot of office, but principally because there should be no room for feeding even APC party members from what in normal circumstances is meant to be used to make life easier for all citizens.

It is reassuring that the president-elect has already announced to those running around Abuja, Kaduna, and Daura for ministerial positions that he will require that every minister in his government declare his or her assets. But care must be taken to go beyond asset declaration as a mere symbolic action. Each candidate for ministerial position must be made to show proof of how he or she came about the assets declared. This should include proof of taxes paid by candidates for ministerial positions. Many of our ministers and governors in the past had declared assets without showing any proof of source of the property they claimed on their asset declaration forms. Such requirement is likely to keep those who had benefited from corruption in the past from becoming major public policy makers in the government of change.

Since the most visible aspect of governance by the PDP in the last sixteen years has been the rule of impunity as distinct from the rule of law, the new president must lead by the power of example, rather than the example of power, which was the core characteristic of PDP’s governance style from Obasanjo to Jonathan. There should be no room for the politics of vindictiveness and marginalisation in the government of President Buhari. Regardless of who voted for whom, General Buhari has become the president of Nigeria the moment he had the majority required for gaining that office. No section of Nigeria must be made to experience the marginalisation that the Yoruba region experienced in the last six years in particular.

In the character of democracy, every citizen has a right to have a preferred presidential or gubernatorial candidate. But once a leader has been chosen by a majority of voters, the leader is obligated constitutionally and morally to govern for the benefit of all citizens. But nothing in being president of and for all requires the president to form a nebulous government of national unity that many PDP politicians have been canvassing for during their visits to congratulate General Buhari. A government of national unity may bring benefits to individuals calling for it but it is dangerous for the polity, as it is capable of leading to a one-party system that suffocates or muffles political opposition necessary to keep the governing party on its toes.

A PDP governor in the Southwest has been quoted by one of his aides as whispering that what appeared to be desperation during the campaign was necessary to prevent an opposition party from becoming the party in power and with the opportunity to use power the way PDP had used it in the last four years. It is therefore conceivable that those begging for a government of national unity and those rushing to obtain APC membership cards during the interregnum are doing so in order to avoid experiencing a negative use of power by the Buhari/APC government. Without doubt, such persons have very little understanding of the politics of change. The new president and his party cannot afford to imitate the government they have displaced electorally. Citizens are still around to take note of such unwholesome governance. A party that is committed to change knows more than any other group that it needs to be in power for more than four years, if it is to be able to make sustainable changes to a polity and economy damaged by personalistic and patrimonial governance in the last few years. The toxic character of the polity in the last six years requires a responsive governance capable of healing the country, instead of a continuation or a variant of a government that pumps venom into the polity.

With or without loss in revenue from petroleum, the governance of the country for the past few years has been marked by waste, greed, and disregard for sustainable policies on remuneration for political appointees and lawmakers at the three levels of government. It is not just the severance benefits for state governors that need the attention of the new president; more than this, the existing severance benefits for the president, vice president, and lawmakers are plainly irresponsible. This is the time for the practice of paying fat salaries and benefits (too fat for legislators to acknowledge publicly) to be re-examined and pruned down. There is no reason why the lawmaker should earn more than a permanent secretary. There is no justification for lawmakers’ constituency allowance that is not subjected to the process of accountability. Lawmakers should just be made to do oversight for the executive and create laws to improve governance and the welfare of citizens; they should not be saddled with community projects which are basically part of the functions of the executive branch of government. This is also a good time to reconsider what is referred to in political or bureaucratic vocabulary as security vote for those in political office. It is difficult for citizens to understand why huge sums of money are given monthly to local government chairs, governors, and presidents as security votes in a country that has military intelligence group, SSS, national intelligence service, regular police etc., not to talk of owning the largest military in sub-Saharan Africa. Any funds given to political office holders that are not subjected to periodic scrutiny and accountability by impartial auditors smack more of pork and should be discontinued in the era of change and accountability.

It is not enough to diversify the economy and thus increase the sources of revenue to the government. It is important that revenues that accrue to the government(s) are not wasted or thrown as pacification inducements at political appointees, civil servants, and lawmakers. Revenues that flow to government coffers belong to all the citizens and should be used to improve the welfare of all. That is what the manifesto of change is expected to do.

To be continued

May 3, 2015
Implications of Sheriff dumping APC for PDP

I asked a chieftain of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Maiduguri his reaction to Senator Ali Modu Sheriff’s dumping of All Progressive Congress (APC) for PDP. He was quick to answer saying “for now I have stepped aside. I am neither in PDP or APC. Let me watch events unfolding”. This is not far from the scenario playing out in Borno since Ali Modu Sheriff, alias SAS, announced in Maiduguri that he had bid farewell to APC for PDP. Most PDP members, especially the chieftains now adopt “Siddon look,” watching if not observing.

No doubt, SAS dumping APC for PDP will alter Borno political landscape. The change could be for better, the change could be for worse. What is however certain is that henceforth, events in the political field of Borno will not be the same again. SAS change of party will raise questions. Some questions will get immediate answers, some will get response later and other questions will never get answered. Here comes one of such questions. What are the implications of SAS leaving APC for PDP?

The implications of SAS dumping the APC for PDP are multi-dimensional. This is all embracing as it will affect the PDP, APC and the people both positively and negatively. For the PDP, it has hit a jack pot. SAS will come with his supporters in APC to PDP. He will plough his resources for the possible success of the PDP in the state. In his Machiavellian disposition, he would do what it takes to ensure victory for PDP his new found love. In this circumstance, SAS is indeed an asset for PDP. However the disposition and willingness of SAS to open his door of fortune depends on the degree of his acceptance by the generality of the Borno State PDP and not necessarily the blessing and endorsement by the presidency. The question that readily comes up now is how acceptable is SAS to the Borno State PDP? The present Borno PDP is made up of the Mohammed Gonis, the Shettima Mustaphas, the Architect Ibrahim Bunus, the Abba Gana’s, the Abba Ajis, the Kumaila’s, the Asheik Jarmas, the Mahmud Ahmads and a host of other juggernauts. Of all these, the Abba Aji’s, the Kumaila’s and the Ibrahim Bunus who, before joining the PDP years back, were members of the ANPP and had to leave the latter for the former as a result of the conflict between them and SAS who was then both the leader of the state ANPP as well the state governor. The question is will they readily and willingly accept SAS in PDP in the present dispensation?

The news report in Daily Trust, July 18, 2014, page 18 with the title “Disquiet in Borno PDP over Sheriff” reads: “There is crack in the ranks of founding members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Borno State following the resolve of former Governor Ali Modu Sheriff to join the party. There are indications that some PDP members who are “aggrieved” with the development would dump the PDP. A source said some of them would not have the patience to sit with Sheriff under the same roof because of the fierce political rivalry they had with him in the past”.

“However, secretary of the PDP Youth Forum in Borno State, Umar Sanda said they are tired of playing what he called “Second Fiddle” in national politics. We are aware that most of the chieftains of PDP in Borno State are not happy that Sheriff is joining us but that is their personal opinion. As far as the youths are concerned, he is warmly welcome”, he said.

Besides, a group designated as “Original Borno PDP” has made it point clear in Advertorial recently that it would only concede the deputy governor position to Senator Ali Modu Sheriff stating unequivocally that the position of governor remains the exclusive preserve of the Original PDP in the coming elections. What will be the position or status of SAS in relation to the existing structure of PDP in the state? Certainly, SAS coming into PDP with his already laid down party structure will not like to play the second fiddle. Besides will SAS allow the party structure he came with from APC into PDP be swallowed by PDP without adequate compensation?

Coming to APC, the exit of SAS will certainly create a vacuum. However, since coming into power as the state governor, Alhaji Kashim Ibrahim through his skilful diplomacy, humility, tolerance, open-door policy, non-discriminatory policy, mass-oriented programmes, laudable poverty alleviation programmes, exceptional humanistic approach in the handling of the victims of the insurgency and his philanthropic disposition has endeared him to all, including the rank and file of the state PDP. Governor Shettima’s incontrovertible records of achievements attest to good governance that mesmerizes the people to his administration. According to an observer, “we now know those who used political power for good or for evil, for the people’s happiness or for oppressing them”

Though, APC will lose some supporters to SAS, the good governance of Governor Shettima may check the leakage. Wittingly, it appears Governor Shettima as the leader of APC in the state is in control of the party machinery judging from the outcome of the last party state congress and this appears a plus for him in galvanizing APC into further strength. His humility and cautious approach to issues may help swell the population of APC as the likelihood of more supporters from other parties, including PDP is obvious.

The coming into PDP by SAS may break the dominance of the state by APC. Future elections in the state will be competitive and may not be violent free. This is the fear of many. The good people of Borno will have the final say provided there is free and fair election.

July 27, 2014
Adoption of IFRS: Tax implications

In line with Section 8 of Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) Establishment Act 2007, FIRS issued a draft circular in October last year to provide direction to stakeholders on the tax implications of the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). IFRS is expected to have far reaching implications on taxpayers, knowing that quoted companies are expected to adopt it, beginning from 2012, other businesses from 2013 while SMEs are to fully adopt the guidelines in 2014.

This is to give effect to the Federal Executive Council’s acceptance of the recommendation of the Committee on the roadmap for the adoption of IFRS in Nigeria, which places emphasis on the adoption of globally accepted accounting standards by reporting entities. The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in a phased transition in a process is to be supervised by the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria(FRCN) formerly Nigerian Accounting Standards Board (NASB), under the supervision of the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Trade and Investment.

Section 55 (1) of the Companies Income Tax Act (CITA), Cap C21, LFN 2004 requires a company filing a return to submit its audited account with the Service while sections 8, 52 and 53 of the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria Act, 2011 gave effect to the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standard. This implies that the audited accounts to be submitted to the Service after the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standard shall be prepared in compliance with standards issued by IFRS. It is in line with the above that FIRS has published these draft guidelines on tax treatments to be given to each of the Standards especially where there are deviations from the present Generally Accepted Accounting Practice (GAAP) after the adoption. The objective is to highlight some salient points in the FIRS draft policy document in alignment with the IFRS guidelines.

IFRS 1 – FIRST TIME ADOPTION -An entity shall prepare and present an opening IFRS statement of financial position at the date of transition to IFRS. This is the starting point for its accounting in accordance with IFRS. An entity shall use the same accounting policies in its opening IFRS statement of financial position and throughout all periods presented in its first IFRS financial statements. Those accounting policies shall comply with each IFRS effective at the end of its first IFRS reporting period.

In particular, the IFRS requires an entity to do the following in the opening IFRS statement of financial position that it prepares as a starting point for its accounting under IFRS:(a) recognise all assets and liabilities whose recognition is required by IFRSs; (b) not recognise items as assets or liabilities if IFRS do not permit such recognition. (a) reclassify items that it recognised in accordance with previous GAAP as one type of asset, liability or component of equity, but are a different type of asset, liability or component of equity in accordance with IFRSs; and (d) apply IFRS in measuring all recognised assets and liabilities”. FIRS draft guidelines emphasise that the new net asset based on the accounting balance shall be adopted for minimum tax computation and where dividend is paid from retained earnings, it shall be subject to tax in line with section 19 of CITA.

Also, the details of recognitions, de-recognitions and reconciliation must be forwarded to FIRS by the taxpayer including all adjustments to opening retained earnings. Furthermore entities shall have the option to either completely expense or spread within 3 years the revenue expense component of its cost of conversion to IFRS as first time adopters. All conversion cost (Capital & Revenue) must be verified and confirmed by the Service before it can be allowed as Qualified Capital Expenditure or expense. While any additional tax/refund as a result of the conversion shall be settled by the company or refunded by FIRS as may be agreed by FIRS within three years of adoption. For the treatment of Finance Lease the FIRS guideline notes that in compliance with IFRS re-classification of lease asset, there could be a situation whereby an operating lease becomes a finance lease. Where two parties had correctly applied the old principle but are now compelled by the IFRS standard to reclassify operating lease as finance lease, FIRS will rely on the Tax Written down value of the asset in granting further capital allowance to the leasee.

Also, investment allowance and Initial allowance shall not be granted to the leasee on reclassification of the asset and where there are errors in compliance with previous standards on leases, the tax consequences resulting from the errors shall be adjusted for accordingly. For assets reclassified to finance lease, paragraph 18(2) and (3) of schedule two of CITA which relates to Rights to Claim Capital Allowances on finance lease shall apply. The guideline on finance lease as described in FIRS information circular No. 2010/01 dated 12th April, 2012 which relates to Value Added Tax (VAT) and With- Holding Tax (WHT) shall apply.

In IAS 19 – which dwells on EMPLOYEE BENEFITS, the FIRS draft guidelines notes that provisions in respect of other long-term employee benefits (other than post- employment benefits and termination benefits) that are not due to be settled within twelve months after the end of the period in which the employees render the related service shall not be allowed for tax purposes until actual payment is made. Profit sharing and bonus payments shall be allowed for tax purposes only if the amount and basis for its computation has been agreed and approved at the beginning of the accounting period and notably Personal Income Tax is payable on the bonus and profit sharing in line with the provisions of Personal Income Tax (amended 2011). For Pension remittances employer’s contributions over and above the 7.5 per cent compulsory threshold is an allowable deduction by virtue of the provision of the National Pension Commission Act (section 7 & 9 of Pension Act) and Actual contribution paid to the pension fund in the current year shall be allowed for tax purposes in line with the existing practice. The National Pension Commission has been empowered to approve defined benefit plan for any entity that wants to run it. However, FIRS must be satisfied that a proper scheme manager is appointed for the security of the fund before allowing any expenses on the scheme for tax purposes. Any provision charged to Statement of Comprehensive Income (SOCI) that does not have the approval of Pension Commission (PENCOM) and FIRS shall be disallowed. Provision made for benefits payable to the employees offered voluntary redundancy shall not be an allowable deduction for tax purposes unless they result into cash payment to the employees.

There is no doubt that the transition to IFRS is a huge task, with over 100 countries already signed to it. IFRS has become the global reporting standards for accounts and it is imperative for various stakeholders to work together to engender a workable solutions in terms of capacity and enlightenment on the cut off dates. Its revolutionary impact tax requires a great deal of decisiveness and commitment. It is a new world order in corporate reporting that will alter not only the financial accounting and reporting landscape in Nigeria but also tax accounting, tax cash flow and tax distributable reserves.

March 18, 2013