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Tag: inconclusive

  • Inconclusive elections

    Before this article is published, most of the outstanding governorship and state assembly elections declared inconclusive by the electoral umpire for one reason or the other would have run their full circle. Then also, one would be in a better stead to appreciate the heuristics of declaring elections inconclusive even in contests winners had clearly emerged.

    Here a difference must be made between run-off and inconclusive elections. The first relates to a situation where election outcome is unable to produce a clear winner in keeping with extant laws while in the second there is a clear winner. However, the total number of cancelled votes during the election is said to be higher that the margin with which the winning candidate is leading his opponent. In such circumstance, INEC, relying on extant regulations and guidelines for the conduct of elections has had to declare the outcome inconclusive while ordering supplementary elections to be held in those areas votes were cancelled.

    This novel criterion for determining winners in national elections surfaced during the very first elections conducted by the incumbent INEC chairman Mahmood Yakubu. The furore it generated was so much so that it earned Yakubu the sobriquet ‘inconclusive elections’ It soon became a matter of serious embarrassment that virtually all the elections Yakubu conducted during his first few months in office were virtually inflicted by this electoral virus. And this raised serious suspicion.

    Of course, the new concept was challenged in court. And the case ran its full course with the Supreme Court curiously ruling in favour of the INEC though to the dissatisfaction of the discerning public. But we have since been left to bear the brunt of this strange mode of determining winners in elections even as INEC has not been able to uniformly apply it. The expectation that INEC would progressively strive to exorcise the ghost of inconclusiveness from its electoral process has remained largely illusory. Rather, what we have seen since the 2019 elections commenced has been a deluge of arbitrariness in the application of the formula. Lack of uniformity and indiscriminate application of the formula have combined to raise serious suspicion on the purported inconclusiveness of inconclusive elections.

    Not unexpectedly, this has given rise to genuine feelings that the formula is a subterfuge by the government in power for self-help in circumstances it finds itself losing to the opposition. This position appears to have been given added fillip by the turn of events since the conduct of the governorship and state assembly elections.

    Elections in six states: Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Kano, Plateau and Sokoto fell to the hammer of inconclusiveness. Of the six states, the opposition was clearly winning in five of them except Plateau. That of Rivers State was halted midway collation on account of heightened insecurity in the state. But, INEC lately decided to recommence collation and announcement of results in Bauchi and Rivers states. Curiously, there have been litigations seeking to bar the electoral umpire form doing this. While the continued collation and announcement of the Bauchi governorship result has been halted following a court order granted the incumbent governor, that of Rivers is to proceed though on a later date.

    It remains however curious that no other person than the governor of Bauchi State is spearheading the litigation not to have the electoral body continue with the collation and announcement of the results. And in the case of Rivers State, the opposition African Action Congress AAC which claimed initial lead in the results collated before the suspension had approach an Abuja High Court asking that the collation and announcement of results be discontinued. One then begins to wonder what all this is intended to achieve except to reinforce the suspicion that there is more to the inconclusiveness and cancellation of results than ordinarily meets the eyes.

    The term inconclusive elections as applied by INEC has become so contentious that it will continue to divide opinion given the way and manner it has been applied since Yakubu assumed the mantle of leadership of that agency. Before him, that terminology was virtually alien in the overall calculations of the conditions precedent to the declaration of contestants as winners or losers in our elections. Take the case of Benue State where the incumbent governor of PDP extraction was clearly leading with 410,576 votes over his APC counterpart who scored 329,022, translating to a margin of win of 81,554.  INEC declared the election inconclusive on the ground that the total number of cancelled votes stood at 121,019. By its warped estimation, this number is bound to make a lot of difference on who finally emerges victorious. Hence, elections have to be held in those areas where votes were cancelled.

    This arithmetic is even contradicted by the standard percentage of the electorate who come out to vote vis–à-vis the number of registered voters. Standard statistics have it that not more than 30 per cent of registered voters actually come out to exercise their franchise during elections. And even if we concede the whole of this percentage  or even 50 per cent of the cancelled votes to the APC candidate, it will still fall short of the winning margin of the PDP by more than 20, 000 votes. And it exposes the duplicity in the entire exercise.

    The above scenario is hypothetical case since both candidates will still have to share the remaining votes. There exists nothing to indicate that the losing candidate will fare much better when elections are held in the cancelled areas. There is also the case of the Abia North senatorial district where the APC candidate polled 31,201 to beat the PDP candidate who scored 20,801 votes. The margin of win was 10,400 votes. But 38,526 votes were cancelled which would have qualified for inconclusive elections using INEC criterion. But that did not happen as a winner emerged.

    All these reinforce the arbitrariness in the application of the concept and fears that it a contrivance by the government in power for self-help where it finds its candidates losing. That is why it is difficult to dismiss accusations by the opposition that the idea of inconclusive elections is designed to deny its members victory through sundry subterfuge. The high number of states where the PDP candidates were clearly leading but declared inconclusive lends ample credence to this view.  By the time this article is published, the inconclusiveness of the elections in the six states would perhaps, have been determined. The way they go would further be a veritable barometer to gauge the value of that regulation in approximating the collective will of the electorate as explicitly expressed at the ballot box.

    One thing certain though is that inconclusive election, the way it has been applied since Yakubu assumed office has become another nomenclature for staggered elections. Such elections place governments in power at added advantage and ipso facto stymie elements of freeness and fairness that are irreducible decimals of democratic engagement. And in a clime where the coercive apparatus of state are deployed sometimes to cajole and intimidate voters, it affords the government higher latitude to achieve its aims through unwholesome means.

    With rising incidence of vote buying, such elections place at vantage position, those with unlimited access to state finances and power. And because of the higher prospects of staggered elections compromising our electoral process, it has become an anathema that should be exorcised from our electoral process. It is not only time-consuming but unnecessarily depletes the very scarce resources needed to tackle the daunting developmental challenges of a country whose citizens have largely remained hewers of wood and fetchers of water.

    More seriously, the Yakubu-led INEC has become a serious embarrassment to this country and its electoral process. It has overtime shown an increasing inability to conduct seamless elections; one that will not result in inconclusive outcomes in many states. Before his adventure, we have had elections in this country devoid of the inconclusiveness he inflicted in our electoral process. Our electoral laws must be tinkered with to obviate the distractions and anti-democratic value of ‘inconclusive elections’.

  • Inconclusive National Electoral Commission

    SIR: After the Independent National Electoral Commission postponed the presidential election from February 16 to February 23, it became obvious that the commission was not ready for the elections. Prior to that, the commission had declared the Osun State gubernatorial election inconclusive, which made discerning Nigerians to raise their eyebrows about the preparedness of the electoral umpire to conduct the election. Its postponement was therefore, not a surprise to many.

    After postponing the election, the electoral body made efforts to convince Nigerians that it was ready for the elections. I didn’t expect less from the chairman of INEC. What will he tell the world about his inability to carry out a function he had four years to prepare? We all watched the chairman’s daily briefing as he laboured to bring us up to speed with preparations and how he plans to defeat Mr. Logistics.

    Despite the daily update, the presidential election wasn’t without challenges. Problems of poor distribution of electoral materials, failure of the card readers, and late arrivals of electoral officers to polling units, still echoed and trailed the result that was declared.

    The electoral umpire may want to create an excuse on why the presidential election experienced challenges, considering the large number of polling units, the desperate antics of politicians to deliver their state at all cost in order to impress their masters, and a host of other reasons.

    There is a popular aphorism that once you make a mistake, you should learn from it. The general expectation therefore, was that the gubernatorial and House of Assembly elections would be an improvement on the presidential election. Like everything Nigerian, that didn’t happen. It is beginning to look like Nigerians cannot get anything right.

    Election plays a significant role in the life of every nation. It is a serious business that we should not contaminate with our attitude. It produces or is supposed to produce the leadership that will manage the affairs of a country. Where an election is stained, the leaders produced from that process remain stained. Nigerian elections over the years have been stained. The people cannot beat their chest to say that they have produced the leaders who have governed this country over the years, through a hitch free electoral process. The will of the people is always made subject to the will of the one who knows how to rig better. I said “rig better” because all politicians rig elections. Winners who are declared are usually those who have out-rigged their opponents.

    The gubernatorial elections conducted by the Inconclusive (Independent) National Electoral Commission in some states, already have credibility questions hanging on its neck. The word “inconclusive” is now synonymous with our elections.

    From reports across the country, fewer people came out to vote for the gubernatorial and house of assembly elections. The voter apathy in this year’s election is massive. There was enthusiasm for the presidential election, but INEC’s poor handling of that election caused the voter apathy experienced in last Saturday’s election. In the future, we may experience a situation where no one comes out to vote, considering how electoral umpire managed the last elections.

    Nothing will be more tragic for a country than when the electoral body charged with the responsibility of creating the platform for the people to exercise their civic duty, turns out to be the one that has discouraged them from doing so.

    It’s a shame.

     

    • Frank Ijege, frankijege@yahoo.com

  • Fed Govt, ASUU meeting inconclusive

    THE Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) members are not returning to the classrooms soon, one month after they embarked on strike.

    ASUU National President Prof. Biodun Ogunyemi said yesterday that the meeting between the Federal Government and the union ended without any conclusion.

    Ogunyemi, while speaking with reporters at the end of the closed door meeting in Abuja, noted that negotiations were still ongoing.

    He said both parties were yet to reach a concrete decision.

    “For now, we have started to discuss. We are yet to reach any concrete decision. Once we have more information, we will make ourselves available to the press.

    “The union will reconvene very soon to continue negotiations,” he said.

    Read also: President renews pledge on release of Chibok girls

    The meeting held at the instance of Minister of Education Malam Adamu Adamu to find lasting solution to the ongoing strike by the university lecturers.

    ASUU had on November 4, embarked on an indefinite strike over poor funding of Nigerian universities and non-implementation of previous agreements by government.

    Meanwhile, National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) President Mr. Danielson Akpan has urged both parties to have a common ground so that the universities can reopen.

    He said they must put the interest of the country and Nigerian students above any other thing.

  • FAAC meeting inconclusive again

    THE much-awaited June 2018 Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) Meeting scheduled for yesterday ended inconclusive. It was rescheduled for tomorrow.

    Yesterday’s meeting, which lasted for about one and a half hours, was inconclusive because other members of the FAAC could not reach an agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) on the amount to be shared for last month.

    An hour into the meeting, the Accountant-General of the Federation (AGF), Mr. Ahmed Idris, staged a walkout with a retinue of his staff.

    The accountant-general’s exit was an indication that all was not well with the meeting.

    Shortly thereafter, other members of the FAAC started streaming out of the auditorium of the federal ministry of finance venue of the meeting.

    A source at the meeting told The Nation that the meeting was inconclusive because they could not reach an agreement with the NNPC “on how much to share and what it is bringing to the table.”

    Tomorrow’s FAAC meeting, the source said “will be explosive as the state governors have vowed not to shift grounds until the NNPC gives a true account of what is due to the federation account.”

    No official came to brief the press after the meeting but words that filtered out of the meeting was that the next meeting has been fixed for tomorrow.

    Should tomorrow’s meeting end in a deadlock again, civil servants may wait for another month without salaries because of the refusal of the NNPC to meet the demands of other FAAC members to fully disclose and remit what was accrued for sharing.

    The last successful FAAC meeting was held in April to share the allocation for May.

    By implication, the May accruals that ought to have been shared for June remained controversial and contentious, thus delaying workers’ monthly entitlements.

    Last week, the Chairman of Finance Commissioners’ Forum, Mahmood Yunusa, accused the NNPC of short-paying the FAAC by N20 billion on royalties and Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) not to mention proceeds from the May 2018 sale of Crude oil by the NNPC.

    The state governments, he said, have resolved to stand “solidly behind the Minister of Finance”, Kemi Adeosun to resolve the matter once and for all and get the NNPC to fully disclose and remit true and accurate proceeds to the federation account.

     

     

     

     

  • Ekiti APC primary inconclusive

    • Violence mars exercise as thugs run riot

    The 33 governorship aspirants of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ekiti State have another date to determine who flies the party’s flag in the July election.

    This follows the disruption of yesterday’s primary by suspected thugs.

    Voting was already in progress when the hoodlums, who had apparently massed outside the venue of the exercise, Oluyemi Kayode Stadium, Ado Ekiti, forced their way in.

    Time was 4.53pm.

    They overturned the tables on which the ballot boxes were placed before the full glare of security men, delegates and other observers.

    They proceeded to smash the boxes.

    Delegates were harassed.

    Crisis erupted when agents of other aspirants complained that illiterate delegates were going to the agent of Mines and

    Steel Development Minister Kayode Fayemi, Mr. Samuel Abejide, to guide them to vote.

    They alleged that Abejide was also writing the serial numbers of their ballot papers to authenticate who they actually voted for.

    Fayemi’s agent said it was a gang-up against the Minister that led to the spurious allegation, accusing those peddling rumour as enemies of APC.

    Abejide said: “It was a proviso that if you are a delegate who can’t read and write, you can call any of the agents. When they saw that I was the one being called, they started feeling the heat and they were determined to disrupt it”.

    The aggrieved agents claimed that the process had been heavily compromised in favour of Fayemi. They also accused security agents of collaborating with Fayemi’s agent to manipulate the process.

    The agents’ protest had attracted their principals and other interested parties, who joined the fray and made spirited efforts to grab the ballot boxes to stall the entire process.

    The thugs were not happy at the trend of voting.

    They surged forward and attempted to stop delegates from further casting their ballots.

    Armed policemen fired gunshots and several canister of teargas to disperse them but to no avail.

    Delegates from four out of sixteen local governments had voted before the process was halted by the protesters.

    One of the suspected thugs was arrested and whisked away by the police.

    The suspected thug was arrested when he was trying to grab one of the ballot boxes and he was stripped naked.

    The protesters chanted anti-Fayemi songs and called the minister unprintable names.

    Security men deployed to the venue formed a ring around the voting centre and the state box where the aspirants sat.

    The Electoral Panel led by Nasarawa State Governor, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, immediately met with the 33aspirants and decided to suspend the exercise indefinitely over the violence.

    Al-Makura left the venue at 6.53 pm after the exercise had been suspended.

    The Nasarawa governor did not talk to reporters who had laid in wait for him on the stadium’s tartan track as he made for his official vehicle, a black Toyota Land Cruiser jeep with his official crest.

    Ojudu condemns disruption

    Ekiti Rebirth Organization (ERO), the campaign arm of frontline All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship aspirant, Senator Babafemi Ojudu, blamed Fayemi for the disruption.

    Gboyega Adeoye, ERO spokesperson, said the State had been under siege preparatory to the primaries as “ferocious looking armed mobile policemen that came in company of the Minister, seized all the major streets for days, in reckless display of show of oppression and terror.”

    He added: “Dr Kayode Fayemi during his declaration vowed that he was ready to use every underhand means to secure the ticket but our people have come out to say a resounding NO! No amount of intimidation, brigandage and crude display of wealth will stop the people’s will to install a fresh hand in our state.

    “We are ready for Fayemi, we have always campaigned for a transparent primary election because we have the people on our side. With the reaction of the people to the attempt to compromise the process, Fayemi now know he does not have Ekiti in his pocket.”

    Fayemi fires back at Ojudu, Daramola

    However, Fayemi, speaking through  Yinka Oyebode, his media aide, said the disruption of the primary election was the height of desperation on the part of some aspirants, who “having seen defeat staring them in the face, conspired together to ensure that the exercise was not concluded.”

    Dr Fayemi said the aspirants resorted to violence and destruction, having realised that he was already in a clear lead in the five local governments that had cast their votes.

    Fayemi, who said he was not surprised by the disruption of the exercise, revealed that the security agencies had, a few days to the primary, been notified of plans by some aspirants to deploy hoodlums to disrupt the voting exercise.

    He, however, said that the security agencies took note of the information and promised to beef up security at the venue.

    “It is quite painful seeing some desperate elements trying so much to rubbish the party we all laboured to build to national reckoning, out of share lust for power.

    “If the quest for political position is to serve, then one wonders why the desperation being displayed by the likes of Femi Ojudu and Bimbo Daramola.

    “Certainly the conduct of these desperate aspirants falls short of the minimum standards expected of anyone that professes progressive ideals.”

    Two other aspirants, Femi Bamisile and Bimbo Daramola, who spoke with reporters after the primary had been called off said the decision was taken in view of what transpired.

    Bamisile said: “Agents of a particular aspirant were underwriting for some illiterate voters which other aspirants complained about.

    “The chairman of the electoral committee (Al-Makura) and the aspirants agreed that the exercise should be suspended indefinitely.

    “The committee will meet with the national leadership in Abuja and a new date will be fixed for a fresh exercise.”

    Daramola said: “There was an issue somewhere about the exercise and they raised observation about sharp practices that had compromised the process, which led to protest and the feeling was that the process should be suspended to avoid bloodshed.”

    Responding to a question that voting was disrupted because Fayemi seemed to be in the lead, Daramola retorted: “I don’t believe that is correct. The results have not been counted, so that was an assumption.

    “Ekiti APC is not in any way fractured, we are one big family. If Fayemi defeats us, we are all going to back him, because the party is supreme. But this must come through a free, fair and credible process.”

     Fayose says disruption is a sign of defeat

    Governor Ayo Fayose described the violence as shameful and a clear indication that “the APC will fail woefully in the July 14 governorship election because apart from its rejection be Ekiti people, the party has become a house divided against  itself that can never hold.”

    Fayose, who reacted through his Special Assistant on Public Communication and New Media, Lere Olayinka, said; “The whole world can now see the so-called progressives. Ordinary primary election, they can’t hold. It is shameful!”

     

  • The demon of inconclusive elections

    Since the advent of the current administration at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it has conducted about 137 elections, 70 of which are end of tenure elections, whilst 11 are bye-elections. However, more than 13 of these elections are inconclusive.

    Before November 2015, ‘’Inconclusive Elections’’ was strange to our election lexicon. This demon gained prominence in the aftermath of theKogi State Gubernatorial Election of November 21, 2015. Since then, almost every other election conducted by the commission has been bedevilled with inconclusiveness.

    This has in no small way eroded the confidence of the electorate in the electioneering system. This leaves one to wonder what happened to electioneering process especially since the 2015 general elections were declared nationally and internationally as a free, fair and credible. The elections not only entrenched the nation’s democracy,it reinforced the international community’s faith in Nigeria and in her democracy.

    And now, to worsen the confidence of the electorate in the ability of the commission to deliver the nation from the pangs of inconclusive elections, INEC chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubuwas reportedin some newspapers onAugust 20as saying that it is very doubtful that the commission would be able to guarantee conclusive elections in 2019.

    Before the 2015 General Elections, the Western World had prophesied the disintegration of Nigeria by 2015. As it turned out, theelectionwas smooth and the outcome fostered peace and unity in Nigeria contrary to the pessimistic predictions of the West. Nigeria thus became an example and indeed a legacy for all emerging economies, especially that the Presidential Electionresulted in a change of government(change of political party), without violence and without election litigation. Going by the statement by the INEC boss, this achievement might be short-lived if the emerging trend of inconclusive elections is not reversed. In fact it might mean that in 2015, Nigeria merely postponed the evil day till 2019. It might mean that in 2019, the nation will enact the evil prophecy of its disintegration caused by inconclusive elections and attendantreactions of violence, anarchy and civil unrest.

    The above underscores the danger posed by the release of the demon of inconclusive elections in Nigeria. It must be arrested and completely annihilated from our election jurisprudence before 2019 and desirably before the forthcoming elections in Edo and Ondo states.

    Since the KogiState gubernatorial election opened the floodgates to the demon of inconclusive election, it is important that we lend our voice on the illegality of the declaration by the commission that the said election was inconclusive (this is notwithstanding the fact that the matter is currently in court, the essence of this communication is to advise and guide the commission for future exercises).  It is important to state at the outset that the laws of Nigeria empowers the commission to make subsidiary legislations through guidelines, but such guidelines are never intended to supersede the constitution. The commission conducted election in Kogi State on November 21 and APC scored 240,867 votes, whilst PDP came second with 199,514 votes, making a difference of 41,353 votes. APC had won in 16 Local Government Areas in the state and whilst PDP won in the remaining five. Election was declared inconclusive nonetheless because the total number of registered voters in 91 Polling Units in 18 Local Government Areas was 49,953 voters.

    The commission relied on Page 22-23 paragraph 4, M of its Guideline 2015, which states that where the margin of votes between two leading candidates is not in excess of the total number of registered voters of the polling unit where the elections were cancelled or not held, decline to make a return until another poll has taken place and the result incorporated into a new form EC8D and record into FORM EC8D for declaration and Return. It was after INEC Returning Officer (RO) declared the election inconclusive that the announcement of Prince Abubakar Audu’s unfortunate demise was announced. Both the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999as Amended and the Electoral Act 2010 as Amended talks about death after election but before swearing in and death after nomination but before election. No provision for death after conclusion of election but before declaration of winner. In determining who has been validly returned in an election, INEC must consider Section 179 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 and Section 26,47,68,69 and 70 of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended. Unfortunately, despite the circumstance, the commission invoked its Guideline despite the above provisions especially 179 Constitution which APC and Prince Abubakar Audu had fulfilled.

    It is common knowledge that when voting takes place in an election, it does so on the basis of the accredited potential voters, Not all registered voters have Permanent Voters Cards, not all Voters with Permanent Voters Card will show up on the day of election for accreditation or voting, not all of them will accredit, not all of them will even vote after accreditation. Elections are won based on number of accredited voters who ended up voting, thus the number of registered voters is too far from the number of persons who actually vote. The basis of determining whether election should be declared inconclusive would have at best been the total number of accredited voters in the affected areas, since accreditation had already taken place. With due respect to the INEC chairman, declaring the election inconclusive because of 49,953 registered voters(majority of whom had no intention of voting) is a numerical pretext, this is because out of the 1,379,971 registered voters in Kogi State, only 511,648 voters accredited. Which means only a minute fraction of the 49,953 registered voters (far less than the number of difference between APC and PDP) would have voted and in any case, all of them cannot even vote for a particular candidate. Thus, if the commission had considered the margin between the two leading candidates in relationto number of accredited voters and not registered voters in the affected areas, it would have had no difficulty in declaring APC/Audu winner of the election in accordance with the procedure prescribed in Section 181 Constitution.

    In the circumstance, the draconian Guideline of INEC is thirsty for a review for the sake of the peace and unity of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The total number of accredited voters or number of voters with PVC is the appropriate basis for invoking the said provision.

    Furthermore, Supplementary Election in the circumstance in Kogi State is alien to the Constitution and the Electoral Act. This is because, Supplementary Election can only be ordered by a Tribunal or Court after a partial nullification of election result. The Nigerian Law envisages only four kinds of elections: (i) General Election; (ii) Bye Election;(iii) Fresh or Rerun Election;(iv) Run-off Election;(Second Ballot or third Ballot). In FAYEMI V ONI (2009) 7 NWLR (PT. 1140) 223 @ 292-293, supplementary election was defined as a complementary election ordered by Court upon voiding of a portion or part of the whole or total result of an election. In ordering the election, the portion of the election not voided is saved and validated and an election is ordered in that part. For the commission to declare the Kogi gubernatorial polls of November 21, 2015 inconclusive and for it to declare a supplementary election unilaterally despite Section 179 CFRN 1999,AND 26,47,68,69 AND 70 Electoral Act is an unconscionable electoral illicitness. Section 26 of the Electoral Act does not even envisage a postponement of the election indefinitely as done by INEC in recent times.

    The commission must not only be an unbiased umpire, but must be seen and perceived by the vast majority to be an unbiased one. As INEC prepares for the Edo and Ondo elections, we implore the commission to reverse the trend of inconclusive elections in Nigeria. Inconclusive elections are imminent threats to democracy.

     

    • MessrsIbrahim &Nwosu are of Vanguard for Sustainable Democracy and Good Governance, Abuja.
  • ‘PDP won’t tolerate inconclusive election’

    ‘PDP won’t tolerate inconclusive election’

    The candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the September 10 governorship election in Edo State, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, has urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to put its house in order, to avoid another inconclusive election.

    Ize-Iyamu, who addressed reporters in Benin, the state capital, advised the INEC to avoid the mistakes and pitfalls that have led to inconclusive elections in other parts of the country.

    He said: “Edo election should not be inconclusive election. Let Edo election be different. But, we should ask: is September 10 feasible? Some are saying that it may coincide with the Muslim public holiday. The INEC should clear air on this and let’s us know in time.”

    Ize-Iyamu advised the umpire to shun favouritism and partisanship to guarantee a transparent poll. He stressed: “INEC should not distribute materials in one place and neglect the other place. If materials arrive Edo North and we can’t see material in Edo Central or South, then, people will say what kind of INEC is this. The commission should work hard.”

    Ize-Iyamu, urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to put its house in order to avoid another inconclusive election.

    He also advised the agency to study the election time table to avoid any coincidence with the Islamic public holiday marking Eid-Kabir.

  • Inconclusive politics

    The issue had rankled in the polity, but Common Sense advocate, Senator Ben Murray Bruce, nevertheless brought it on. He took the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to the grinder for pending elections to fill six vacant seats in the Red Chamber. The senator, penultimate week, raised a point of order in the legislative chamber drawing his colleagues’ attention to the fact that Imo North, Anambra Central, Kogi East and the three senatorial constituencies in Rivers State were without representation in the Senate. He didn’t fail to observe that this was in violation of the Nigerian 1999 Constitution. Senator Bruce insinuated incompetence, or dysfunction, or both on the part of the electoral commission, and urged that the commission’s chairman be tasked to live up to his responsibility. Not without a hint of mockery, he noted that it took the whole of a week for INEC to conclude the recent election into area councils of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). “It is a violation of the constitution because the people of these states have a right to have representation here…It is the responsibility of INEC to conclude these elections so that the people of these states can have representation here in the Senate,” he asserted.

    Senator Bruce may have concerned himself with vacant seats in the Senate, but there are as well a number of other constituencies in the country today where there are no elected representatives because elections were suspended or declared inconclusive by INEC. And the issue of elections not producing a winner at the first ballot has become a lightening rod lately used on the electoral commission, and a trend by which its overall efficiency is being assessed.

    Political as well as non-political interests have blamed INEC for the spate of inconclusive elections, which is seen as a function of its incompetence. Newspaper editorials cited “indecisiveness of the commission” as the real reason for the crisis that trailed the Kogi State governorship election in November, last year; and were unimpressed by “the litany of excuses by the commission following its inability to deliver clean polls” in the Bayelsa State governorship in December, last year, the River State constituency elections in March, this year, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) area council election in April. Politicians did not let the opportunity to make partisan capital out of the issue slip, as a zonal caucus of one of the two major parties in a communiqué last Thursday said it was putting on record “our dissatisfaction with the performance of the electoral body…as all elections so far superintended…have ended up inconclusive.”

    But it should be obvious that INEC does not choose to make elections inconclusive – there is no conceivable reason why it should. The activities of politicians and their surrogates compel such an outcome. When the electoral commission deploys personnel and materials for any election, it provides the maximum outlay required to see that election through at the first ballot, and there is no logical explanation why it should short-shrift on concluding the poll and declaring a winner. Elections fail to produce a winner without going into the supplementary phase simply because of malpractices, violence and other security breaches that warrant INEC to cancel or suspend voting in certain areas within the electoral constituency. And the rule that the commission has always applied is that where the difference in valid votes accruing to a leading contestant and the runner-up in an election is less than the number of registered voters in areas where elections had been cancelled or suspended, no winner would be returned until the affected voters have their say in a supplementary election.

    The current chairman of INEC, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, has been out lately to show that this rule is not only democratic in essence, but also prescribed by Nigeria’s electoral law. Speaking with journalists in Lagos late last week, he said: “In the discussions that I have listened to and in what I have read so far, I have not heard anyone accuse the commission of declaring elections inconclusive outside the provisions of the law – especially Sections 26 and 53 of the Electoral Act. Section 26 says that in the event of a threat to the elections – a threat of violence or natural disaster – INEC would have the power under the law to suspend the election and appoint another date when the situation is right to conduct the election. And Section 53 of the Electoral Act is even more specific: it says that where there is over-voting in any constituency, the results will be cancelled. And where votes involved in the cancelled poll may affect the overall result in the constituency, INEC should declare the election inconclusive and set another date to conduct the election. Our guidelines are drawn on the basis of the provisions of the Electoral Act.”

    I have always considered the recent spate of inconclusive elections a positive index of the quality of election management in our country, even if an unflattering commentary on the overall political culture in the land. And the reason is: with the sad reality of undue desperation by political actors in electoral contests, which encourages violence and malpractices like over-voting, inconclusive elections signpost an institutionalization of regulatory controls by INEC, and indicate that there is no easy pass for election manipulators both without and within the commission. We can’t have forgotten that there was a time in this country when the general perception of the electoral commission was that it returned election winners without regard to ballots duly cast by voters; and that it did not matter how many votes were tallied and how many more were outstanding, winners were announced anyway! Besides, elections were won by landslide margins such that outstanding votes, if there were any, were of no consequence.

    The INEC Chairman acknowledged this much last week when he told journalists: “Elections in Nigeria are getting better. They are not what they should be yet, but they are getting better, particularly with the introduction of technology in 2015. Votes are also counting today more than ever before. And political parties are getting stronger: we now have two strong political parties who field strong candidates. Winning by landslide is no longer the case, like when we had one dominant political party and weak opposition parties. Now we have two strong parties that are fielding strong candidates. The elections are getting better, the votes are counting, and the margins of victory are getting smaller.”

    Even then, elections would not be serially stalemated as we have witnessed lately but for incivility of political actors and their supporters. I was once in INEC and I know that nearly all instances of inconclusive elections under former Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, were in direct consequence of malpractices like thuggery, ballot snatching and over-voting. That was the case with Imo State governorship in 2011, Anambra State governorship in 2013, as well as governorship elections in Imo (again!), Abia and Taraba states in 2015. It was the same with Ilaje/Ese-Odo federal constituency election in Ondo State, April 2014; and I doubt that the Oguta constituency in Imo State yet has a representative in the state legislature owing to constituents’ propensity for violence and failure to give security guarantees. The current INEC Chairman, Professor Yakubu, confirmed last week that the electoral commission had observed that despite the present hype, recent elections produced winners at the first ballot in places where there was no disruption to the process, whereas they were inconclusive in all the places where violence was recorded.

    The real challenge of minimising the spate of inconclusive elections, in my view, is for political actors to realise that there is no longer an easy path to electoral victory other that convincing voters to voluntarily cast their ballots for policies and programmes on offer.

  • Season of inconclusive elections

    Season of inconclusive elections

    Nigerians have been amused by the trend of inconclusive elections that have been witnessed in recent times. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the phenomenon.  

    The inconclusive tag associated with the recent Kogi and Bayelsa governorship elections has brought to the fore one of the biggest challenges facing the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The commission had been hailed for its conduct during the 2015 general elections. Against stiff opposition from the then ruling party, the commission insisted on the use of Smart Card Readers and the Permanent Voters Card (PVC); two technological innovations that have been used successfully in some countries in Africa and elsewhere in the world. Indeed, the two devices were eventually hailed as the greatest innovations that made the elections to stand out, compared to previous ones since the return to civil rule in 1999.

    But, given the challenges that were associated with the introduction of the technological innovations, observers say they remain a means to an end. With the innovative technologies introduced by the immediate past chairman of INEC, Prof. Attahiru Jega, many Nigerians had heaved a sigh of relief, saying that the era when the desperate bid for power by politicians was the order of the day was coming to an end.

    Indications from recent elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states suggest that politicians and their supporters are nevertheless trying to find new ways to undermine the system, by continuing to resort to the age-old practice of snatching ballot papers and ballot boxes, stuffing of ballots, disruption of voting and fomenting of violence to scare away potential voters in places where their opponent appears to have the upper hand. Curiously, some Nigerians have dubbed the new INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, “an inconclusive chairman” with the way the two recent elections have gone.

    In the case of the Kogi election, INEC had to cancel results in 91 polling units across the state as a result of cases of violence, over-voting, snatching of ballot boxes, among others.

    Subsequently, a supplementary poll was ordered in the affected units. This was premised on the fact that the margin between the two leading contenders then, the late Abubakar Audu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Governor Idris Wada of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was 41,000 votes; whereas the total number of registered voters in the affected polling units was 49, 953.

    The impasse has been resolved, with the declaration of Yahaya Bello, Audu’s substitution, as winner. The APC garnered 6,885 votes in the supplementary poll to bring its total votes to 247,752, having polled 240,857 in the November 21 election. Wada scored 5,363 to take his total votes to 204, 877 votes; he had earlier garnered 199, 514 votes.

    Similarly, the Bayelsa poll was also characterised by poor logistics and violence in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area. INEC’s response initially was to shift voting in area to the next day. But, armed thugs continued to cause mayhem, by disrupting the distribution of election materials. Thus, the rescheduled poll suffered several hitches and had to be cancelled; thereby re-enacting the Kogi inconclusive scenario. INEC said a new date would be announced for the election in the local government, which has 120, 827 registered voters and is the largest among the eight councils in the state.

    This development has put Yakubu on the spotlight. Nevertheless, observers say beyond the use of technological devices that something more incisive is needed to guarantee free and fair elections in the country. One of such observers put it very succinctly when he said: “This has to do with the human factor; specifically the change in attitude and orientation by the major stakeholders; the political gladiators who usually put their selfish interest far above those of the electorates.

    “The truth is that the use of technological tool like the Smart Card Reader does not in itself eliminate the human agency that perpetrates electoral offences such as over-voting. But, the Card Reader still helps to expose the misdeed, by showing in its memory that the ballot papers stuffed in the box is more than the number of persons accredited.

    This is not the first time Nigeria would be witnessing a trend of inconclusive elections and resultant supplementary elections. There was supplementary election for Ekiti State governorship election in 2009. The Anambra Central senatorial constituency also had one in 2011. Others are: the Imo State governorship election in 2011; the Oguta constituency of Imo State 2013; the Imo State governorship election in 2015; and the Anambra State governorship election in 2013.

    This development has always meant different things to different political parties; depending on how it affects their chances of victory. For instance, in Anambra State in 2013, political parties like the APC and the PDP picked holes with the pronouncement of INEC, while the winning All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) was quite indifferent, knowing that it was already coasting to victory with the results so far declared. But, INEC insisted that it would not cancel the entire exercise as canvassed by some of the parties, after the chief returning officer had declared elections in the affected area inconclusive.

  • Anxiety in Imo over inconclusive governorship election

    Anxiety in Imo over inconclusive governorship election

    •  Okorocha vows to defend APC victory 

    THERE was anxiety yesterday in Imo State over Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC’s) silence on a new date for the conduct of supplementary governorship election in the state.

    This followed the declaration by INEC’s Returning Officer, Prof Oye Ibidapo-Obe, that the Saturday’s elections were inconclusive.

    Supporters of incumbent Governor Rochas Okorocha and candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and those of his challenger, House of Representatives Deputy Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP, are worried that INEC secretariat has been abandoned.

    Efforts by reporters to know the new date for the supplementary elections in some of the areas where the results were either rejected or where elections could not hold due to violence, proved abortive.

    They were not allowed into the premises by armed security men.

    The Commission was yet to release the result House of Assembly election, a development that has further the suspense.

    Owerri, the state capital, has been rocked by sponsored protests.

    The protesters, believed to have been sponsored by the PDP, have been calling for the cancellation of results of the local government areas won by the APC candidate.

    Obe had in his announcement, explained that the election was inconclusive because the 144, 715 registered voters in the affected areas was more than the difference of 79, 529 votes with which Okorocha was leading Ihedioha, his closest rival.

    The electoral umpire has released another voter register in the affected areas, in which it put the number of eligible voters at 127, 000 as against the figure earlier announced.

    It was learnt that the new figure has not reflected the actual number of voters who collected Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs).

    But the APC is asking INEC to accept the result of the six wards that were rejected in Oru East Local Government Area during the collation as a result of the objection raised by the PDP State Agent and the confession of the Electoral Officer, Mrs. Emmanuela Opara that the results were written under duress.

    At a news conference at the Government House, the APC standard bearer urged INEC to adopt the results and declare him the winner of the election, having won 20 out of the 27 council areas.

    Okorocha, who recalled that the 2011 governorship election which he won convincingly, was also declared inconclusive by INEC, vowed to defend his victory against any manipulation by any person or group of persons.

    Besides, the huge votes Ihedioha polled in the three local government where he shares ancestral affinity, the PDP candidate was defeated, by Okorocha in the keenly contested election.

    The Director of Media for the Ihedioha Campaign Organisation, Enyinna Onuegbu, said the result as announced by INEC was unacceptable to the PDP and the Imo people.

    He accused the governor of rigging the election in all the council areas, where the APC won and urged INEC to upturn the results.

    On the APC side, the Director of the Rochas Okorocha Campaign Organisation, Iheukwumere Alaribe, blamed INEC for the stalemate.

    He accused the Commission of colluding with the PDP to declare the election inconclusive, despite the overwhelming evidence that the APC has won.

    Alaribe said: “It is clear that the APC had the advantage of more than 79,000 votes over the PDP. We also had the advantage of geographical spread and we were able to secure 25 per cent of the votes in all the local government areas in the state.

    “It is shocking that the INEC conspired with the PDP to prevent voters in some parts of the state from performing their civic responsibilities on the Election Day.

    “Although INEC has not officially communicated to us, we are prepared to submit ourselves for the run-off election. But, we want to be sure that it will be free and fair. If INEC had done the proper thing, the supplementary would have been avoided.”