After the announcement a fortnight ago by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), that it has suspended – abandoned, was more like it – its plan to create 30,000 additional polling units until after next year’s general election, it is obviously an academic exercise to still dwell on the subject. But then even academic exercises do have their uses; they do help at least to ensure the triumph of reason over sentiments, even if in the long run.
And on this subject of new polling units, I have no doubt that what we have seen is a classic case of the triumph of propaganda over fact. This much should be obvious to the reader after a careful consideration of the first reaction reproduced below to my piece on the subject last week. Hakeem Kazeem’s is one of the several I received.
Kazeem’s, to me, is symptomatic of how statistics can be so easily deployed to bamboozle the credulous. Like so many who have spoken and written about the now abandoned new polling units because of the propaganda that its distribution was meant to favour the North which Professor Attahiru Jega, its chairman, comes from, Kazeem clearly assumes the existing ratio is just, fair and equitable to all sections of the country.
Even the most casual consideration of the figures in contention shows nothing could be further from the truth. The North, including Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, has slightly over 40.5 million voters. Its existing polling units (PUs) are 63,368 or roughly 52% of the existing 121,348. The South with 29,856,650 registered voters has 57,981 PUs, roughly 48% of the existing figure. This clearly does injustice to the ratio of the voting population of the North which is 57.5% against the South’s 42.5% of the total of 70,383,428 registered voters.
This difference between the two regions hides the even more important detail of the distribution of the PUs among the states. In the South only Lagos and Edo have over 600 voters per PU. Delta, Rivers, Ogun, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, Abia, Oyo and Cross River less than 600 with Ebonyi, the highest, at 571. The rest have far less than proposed minimum of 450. Indeed, Ekiti (313), Bayelsa (327) and Anambra (387), have less than 400 each.
The North is a study in contrast. The lowest number per PU is 512 for Kogi, with Jigawa a close second (515) and Gombe a not-so-distant third (545). Kano and Katsina have between 550 and 600. The rest have well over 600, with Plateau clinching the top prize at 791 and Niger not too far behind with 762. However, the platinum medal goes to Abuja which has 1,588!
What all this meant was that the much ballyhooed increase of about 20,000 for the North as against 8,400 or so for the South would have only altered the current ratio of 52:48 in favour of the North to a new ratio of roughly 55.7:44.3. This would have been more in accord with the spread of the country’s registered voters even though it still not fair and equitable enough. In absolute figures these would have been 83,600 PUs in the North as against 66,440 in the South.
Clearly the focus on the ratio of 3 to 1 increase in favour of the North, rather on the whole picture, was a deliberate statistical sleight of hand by those afraid of a free and fair election to frighten the unwary into believing there is a plan afoot by INEC to rig the election in favour of any presidential candidate from the North.
Well, commission has made its decision but it was clearly a decision based on sentiments rather than the facts, as a close reading of some of the reactions to my piece last week reproduced below should convince the reader.
Sir,
Your piece dated 19th of November portraying (Professor Attahiru) Jega as a victim of blackmail is jaundiced and misplaced. Granted that the North has a higher population than the South by as much as 5% as claimed by you, does that justify the huge disparity in the additional polling units awarded by Jega to the North as much as ratio 1-3 (over 33%)! Haba Mallam! As a true Muslim where is your sense of justice, equity and fairness?
+2348023036314
Hakeem Kazeem,
Sir,
Jega may keep promising credible, free and fair elections based on his personal integrity and not that of the institution he is ‘driving’. The surest way to embarrass a professional driver is to hand over a malfunctioning car to him and block all possibilities of the car’s repairs. Let Jega prove otherwise come 2015 elections.
+2347034483605
Wankar Daniel.
Sir,
I honestly think Jega should resign. The job has done an irreparable damage to his reputation. I used to trust his person and principles. But after what happened in Kaduna, Katsina and Bauchi in the 2011 elections I don’t feel the same about him. The abusive song that appeared after the 2011 elections, though I don’t subscribe to its contents, I share the frustration and anger of the singers.
+2348033111000
Dr. M. L. Yahuza.
Sir,
You speak as though you do not know the sensitivity of this matter. How many times has the South been short-changed just for peace to reign? You probably got your university education because a higher scouring Southerner was dropped to accommodate your state quota. The list goes on. The North cannot continue to trample roughshod on the South and the Middle-Belt under any guise. Even in states and local government creation it’s either equal or no distribution of new polling units.
+2347032170069
Endee Anozie,
Sir,
I am a pioneer staff of INEC, now retired. Since the first voter registration was conducted in 1988 or thereabouts, all subsequent voter registration exercises have amounted to simply splitting and spreading the existing polling stations. I am surprised Jega has succumbed to the pranks of Southern ethnic irredentists and chickened out of conducting a routine electoral exercise.
+2348036177178
John Tyav,
Sir,
I think Jega should have been resolute in creating the additional polling units albeit for a different reason. While Nigerian population figures remain in valid dispute, the large mass of the North is indisputable. The idea of a half empty North suggests some sort of dispersal of the population. So even on the basis of convenient access, if we say we want a polling unit within a comfortable walking distance of every Nigerian, then the North may well have more than tenfold more polling units than the South.
What is key is finding a way (electronic voting) to ensure VALID voting.
+2348098050590
Dr. Ogbuagu,
Sir,
It was the late Dr. Abel Goubadia that conducted the 2003 (elections) not Prof. Maurice Iwu as you mentioned in your column.
+2348036466756
Muhammad Auta.
The error was corrected in the last copy I sent to the editors but it apparently failed to meet their deadline. The online editions contained the corrected paragraph which read:
Obasanjo’s lamentation then was in defence of the terrible record of Professor Maurice Iwu, Jega’s predecessor, in his conduct of the 2007 elections which was more or less universally condemned as hardly free, fair and credible. Obasanjo had replaced the late Mr Abel Goubadia, whose conduct of the 2003 election was adjudged even worse than that of 2007, with Iwu as INEC’s chairman in 2005.
MH
Sir,
Your column is always a delight to read. (However), I only want to correct a point in the 19th November edition. Chief Sunday Afolabi was never an Afenifere member talk less of being a chieftain.
+2348056119569
Olalere Isola.
Sir,
The late Chief Sunday Afolabi was not an Afenifere chieftain. He fell out with Awo’s political camp in the build up to 1983 general elections. He never returned.
+2348030490107
Adebayo Salako.
Re: As President Jonathan declares his 2015 bid…
Sir,
In fighting Boko Haram, you do not seem to have any role for Aliyu Gusau and Sambo Dasuki, the Defence Minister and NSA (National Security Adviser). Remember you pestered Owoeye Azazi until he died. So these two have no questions to answer in this war against insurgency?
+2348023243751
Alabi Williams.
Sir,
My question to you as a true and sincere Muslim if President Jonathan is to be a Muslim will you ask him to resign?
+23480328905863.
Yes, I would. Twice, first, on September 20,2008 and second, December 2, 2009 I said the late President Umaru Yar’adua should resign from his job when it became obvious that he could not cope with the rigours of his office due to his failing health.
MH
