There are five days to the 11th November governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi (BIK) states and all is apparently set by now with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in its preparations. The commission has for some while been saying all non-sensitive materials were deployed on sites, and in a couple of days hence it should begin to send out the ballot papers and result sheets that constitute the sensitive items. For its part, the security establishment has indicated it has firmed up the game plan for securing the election environment; and political actors must themselves be on the last lap of electioneering in the public which began since 14th July and closes by law at 12 midnight on Thursday, 09th November.
The elections will involve combined population of 5.1million voters who picked their permanent voter cards (PVCs) out of 5.4million captured on the electoral body’s roll of registered voters in the BIK states. According to the commission, out of 1,056,862 registered voters in Bayelsa State, 1,017,613 collected their PVCs, leaving 39,249 cards uncollected; in Imo, there are 2,419,922 registered voters out of which 2,318,919 collected their PVCs, with 101,003 uncollected; and in Kogi, there are 1,932,654 voters on roll out of which 1,833,160 collected their PVCs, leaving 99,494 PVCs uncollected. The electoral body said it cleared 16 party candidates to run for the governorship in Bayelsa State, 17 in Imo and 18 in Kogi.
Besides enrolled voters, the elections will be a huge logistical operation in terms of manpower deployment. INEC says voting will take place in 10,510 polling units spread across 649 electoral wards in a total of 56 council areas comprised by Bayelsa with eight council areas, Imo with 27, and Kogi with 21. The commission “plans to deploy a total of 46,084 regular and ad hoc staff for the election (and) we have so far accredited 126 national and international organisations and are currently deploying 11,000 observers for the election,” INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu recently told journalists. Security agencies are likewise expected to roll out massively in securing not just the polling units, but also results collation points at the 649 registration areas/wards, 56 council area centres and three state collation centres – totalling to 11,178 voting and collation locations in the three states. “This is besides ensuring a secure environment for the ongoing campaigns and rallies by political parties and candidates, security of voters, escort of personnel and materials, protection of assets and general security for all persons with legitimate reason to participate in the election and electoral activities,” Professor Yakubu said.
Nigerian elections have historically been blighted by low voter turnout, no thanks in large part to the desperation of political actors that have often fostered violence in the electoral environment. But the security services have pledged a safe environment for the BIK off-cycle governorship polls, vowing that no room would be spared fomenters of violence. At the last meeting of the Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) in Abuja, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu assured that the security agencies would work with INEC to ensure clean elections and there would neither be interference nor violence. Being the first set of elections to be conducted under the watch of incumbent Bola Ahmed Tinubu presidency, he said: “It is going to be a litmus test for us. Three important states – one in the Northcentral, one in the Southeast, one in the Southsouth – and we are ready. We will provide what it takes to ensure credible elections…” At another forum, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Christopher Musa warned political thugs and criminals to steer clear of the three-state polls or face the consequences. “We’re prepared for the coming elections in the three states of Imo, Kogi and Bayelsa. We don’t want any violence. We’ll make sure the elections are free, fair and peaceful so that the results can bring out what people actually wanted,” he said inter alia when Defence Minister Mohammed Badaru and Minister of State Bello Matawale paid a familiarisation visit to his office.
Those assurances were helpful, but INEC had often voiced concern over the menace of violence casting a long shadow on the polls. At the recent ICCESS meet, Professor Yakubu, who is co-chair of the committee with the NSA, urged security operatives to take decisive action against perpetrators of electoral violence in the three states, noting that the difficult geographical terrains for logistical operations in the states were being compounded by the prevailing insecurity. “Ultimate responsibility for election security lies with the security agencies. Our message to the security agencies is to take decisive action against perpetrators of electoral violence: this is the surest way to guarantee a safe environment for peaceful conduct of elections and electoral activities. In doing so, security personnel on electoral duty should remain neutral and committed to the established professional code of conduct and rules of engagement,” the electoral chief said.
And there is good ground for INEC or anybody else to be worried over bursts of violence in the states fuelled by negative mobilisation of supporters by political actors. Kogi State is particularly a flashpoint where respective convoy of State Governor Yahaya Bello, whose preferred candidate is All Progressives Congress (APC) flagbearer Usman Ododo because he is effluxing with the expiration of his second term of office in January 2024, and Social Democratic Party (SP) flagbearer Yakubu Ajaka has severally been ambushed by gunmen, and with each fingering the other as the mastermind. Also, during this electioneering, a radio station, Radio Kogi Ochaja, was looted and destroyed by hoodlums armed with guns and others dangerous weapons after they beat up the staff and security guards on duty.
It isn’t that electoral violence is new to the state, as there were experiences in past polls. A notorious instance was in November 2019, shortly after the announcement of the result of the governorship poll, when Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) woman leader of Wada/Aro campaign council, Ochadamu ward, Acheju Abuh, was burnt alive in her house by suspected political thugs. Till date, no one has been prosecuted by security agencies over the gruesome murder.
Bayelsa and Imo states have had their share of violence. In Bayelsa, the camps of State Governor Duoye Diri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Timipre Sylva of the APC lately locked horns in the public space over mutual allegations of violence and thuggery. Meanwhile, there’ve been flashpoints of violence in Nembe, Brass, Ekeremor and Southern Ijaw council areas, with stakeholders urging civility on the part of political actors so not to aggravate the already tense situation. Proclivity to violence forced INEC in the 2023 general election to postpone voting in some polling units till the following day after thugs interrupted the process.
In Imo, political gladiators traded barbs amid criminal insecurity hobbling the state. Only last September, gunmen laid siege on a joint security team of soldiers, police and civil defence corps personnel at the sleepy Umualumaku community, in Ehime-Mbano council area, and burnt them to ashes in their patrol vehicles. Before then, there was the killing of 14 youths reportedly returning from a wedding to their community in Otulu, Oru East council area, allegedly by Ebubeagwu security operatives; and gunmen killing of five policemen at Okpala junction in Ngor Okpala council area of Imo among others. Whereas the incidents could pass for sheer criminal attacks, political actors milked them for partisan capital.
A fresh dimension to the trouble in Imo was the bull fight between organised labour and the state government. Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) President Joe Ajaero was reportedly roughened up last week when he led members of the congress in Imo to protest alleged anti-worker measures of State Governor Hope Uzodinma, who in turn accused labour of meddling in the state’s politics. Now, NLC and its twin labour centre, Trade Union Congress (TUC) threaten labour unrest that may not only cripple critical service across the nation, but also obstruct the imminent governorship polls. Truth, however, is that Ajaero’s foray into the Imo waters, even if motivated by purely labour interests, was ill-timed, coming in the homerun of electioneering for the three-state polls. There is no way hidden partisan motives would not imputed. And it would be grossly overreaching for organised labour to ground the nation and the elections on account of personal offence against one of its principals. The weapon of labour agitation is too strategic to be so triflyl wielded.
For the success of the imminent polls, politicians must be on their best behaviour while other role players – INEC, security agencies and voters – must give a good account of themselves.
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