In the end, the ceasefire deal entered into by Israel and Hamas was nothing but a hostage deal. It had been in the offing since last May, but it was not consummated until last Sunday, a day before President Donald Trump, who had threatened ‘all hell to pay’ should a deal be wanting, was sworn in as the 47th US president. The hostage deal was essentially, in tone and content, the one presented by the Joe Biden administration, and it is a three-phase deal, with the last two phases yet to be negotiated. The combatants will be lucky to pass the first phase which involves the release of hostages (One Israeli civilian hostage for 30 Palestinians, and one female Israeli soldier for 50 Palestinians) and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from parts of Gaza.
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Given the tentativeness of the deal and the fragility of the Israeli parliamentary coalition, the combatants will be lucky to get to or surpass the second phase that deals with the release of more hostages, negotiation of a peace deal, and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The ceasefire deal, as tentative as it is, is guaranteed by Egypt and Qatar. What is clear so far is that the scale of destruction brought upon Gaza has not debarred Hamas from recouping its personnel losses, and may even be loth to give up power over the strip. But it lost almost its entire leadership, not to talk of Gaza’s infrastructure. Israel clearly won the war against Iran and its proxies, dealing devastating blows to them from which they will need many years to recover. While Hezbollah lost its nerves (as well as its entire leadership) for being unable to bear the Gaza scale of destruction on Lebanon without risking revolt against its influence, Iran’s regional agenda was dealt mortal blows, and the Middle East changed substantially in ways difficult to remake quickly.
