Israel’s airstrikes aims to do more than destroy Iran’s nuclear centrifuges and missile capabilities. It seeks to shatter foundations of Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei’s, government, Israeli, Western and regional officials have said.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran weakened enough to be forced into concessions on abandoning its nuclear enrichment, its ballistic missile programme and its support for militant groups, they said.
He also wants to leave Khamenei’s government debilitated. The campaign is about “exhausting the regime’s ability to project power and maintain internal cohesion,” one senior official said.
Iran’s Islamic government faces an existential crisis unlike anything since 1979 Revolution – not even the brutal 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war posed such a direct threat to clerical rule. Israel, Middle East’s most advanced military, can strike anywhere in Iran with drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets, assassinations by Mossad operatives, and cyberwarfare technology.
In recent days, Israel has broadened its targets to include government institutions like the police and state television headquarters in Tehran. Netanyahu’s government is planning for at least two weeks of intense airstrikes, according to four government and diplomatic sources, though the pace depends on how long it takes to eliminate Iran’s missile stockpiles and launch capacity.
Dennis Ross, former Middle East envoy and advisor to several U.S. administrations, believes Iran is feeling the pressure and may be inching toward the negotiating table after the strikes eliminated much of Khamenei’s inner circle, damaged nuclear infrastructure and missile sites, and killed top security figures.
But, after Tehran offered no concessions during six previous rounds of nuclear negotiations with U.S., Washington will need assurances that its goals, including the permanent abandonment of enrichment, will be met before it will support a ceasefire.
After Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” on social media on Tuesday, Khamenei promised in a televised speech that any U.S. military intervention in Iran would be met with “irreparable damage”.
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Iran’s decades-old playbook – waging war from the shadows via its proxies – collapsed under an Israeli offensive following the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. Its regional Axis of Resistance crumbled, with Hamas crushed in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon defeated, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ousted by rebels, and the Houthi militia in Yemen on the defensive.
Russia and China – seen as allies of Tehran – have remained on the sidelines, leaving Iran isolated in the face of Western powers determined to end its regional influence and nuclear ambitions.
If the conflict does escalate, regional officials fear a collapse of Khamenei’s government would not lead to democracy but to fragmentation – or worse: a civil war, fuelled by Iran’s marginalized minorities – Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baha’is, Baluchis and Christians – could erupt in a dangerous power vacuum.
“And that,” a Gulf source warned, “no one is ready for.”
The UAE foreign ministry directed Reuters to its statements condemning Israel’s strikes against Iran. Saudi Arabia’s and Qatar government media office did not respond to a request for comment.
French President Emmanuel Macron echoed that warning at this week’s G7 leaders summit, saying forced regime change in Iran would bring chaos. He cited the failures of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the 2011 NATO-backed intervention in Libya as cautionary examples.
Vatanka, of the Middle East Institute, warned that shockwaves from the collapse of the government in Tehran would not stop at Iran’s borders.