As Nigeria grapples with soaring transport costs, deteriorating highways, and rising carbon emissions, Jeremiah Gbadegoye an expert in sustainable transportation systems, intermodal freight logistics, and energy optimization is championing a transformative yet pragmatic shift: move more freight by rail and let trucks handle what they do best — the first and last mile.
Jeremiah argues that this balanced approach, integrating road–rail intermodal freight systems, can dramatically reduce logistics costs, relieve chronic pressure on public road budgets, and accelerate Nigeria’s decarbonization goals.
“Every overloaded truck isn’t just moving goods — it’s eroding the road beneath it and draining the national purse,” Jeremiah said. “A smarter intermodal system gives us lower costs, safer roads, and a cleaner economy.”
A formative spark — experience at the NRC
Jeremiah’s conviction could be personal as well as professional. At the end of his third year at the University of Ibadan, he completed an internship with the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC). That early, hands-on exposure to the network’s operational strengths and latent capacity—from yards to timetables—was his first clear glimpse of how a revitalized railway could reshape national logistics. It also set him on the path to advanced work in risk-aware intermodal planning and energy optimization for transport infrastructure.
The Truck-Heavy Reality — and the Bill We All Pay
Nigeria’s freight economy remains overwhelmingly dependent on roads. This heavy reliance has left federal and state governments locked in a costly cycle of endless construction and maintenance, consuming vast portions of the national budget.
In 2024, the Federal Government budgeted about ₦1 trillion for 468 road construction and rehabilitation projects, according to Punch. The following year, the Federal Ministry of Works received about ₦800 billion, a figure the Minister himself admitted was inadequate to meet the nation’s infrastructure needs.
Even after construction, the burden of maintenance is staggering. The Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) says it requires about ₦880 billion annually for optimal road maintenance, yet allocations have fallen far short—₦76.3 billion in 2023, ₦103.3 billion in 2024, and ₦168.9 billion proposed for 2025. This underfunding has forced a patch-and-repair approach instead of proactive upkeep.
Meanwhile, international data echo this strain. A 2024 U.S. Department of Commerce brief highlighted that Nigeria allocated about $922 million to road construction in a single year—an immense figure by developing-economy standards.
“These are big numbers,” Jeremiah remarked. “And they repeat every year because we overuse roads for long-haul freight. Rail must carry more of the heavy tonnage if we want budgets that stretch further.”
According to Mordor Intelligence (2024), road freight still commands about 62 percent of Nigeria’s logistics revenue—underscoring the overwhelming share trucks hold in moving goods across the country. But the side effects are now impossible to ignore: collapsing highways, skyrocketing transport costs, and billions in public expenditure that could be redirected to power, health, and education.
“The financial weight of road freight is not sustainable,” Jeremiah warned. “Every naira spent rebuilding a damaged highway could fund rail upgrades that last decades.”
Reviving Rail Freight: Momentum and Untapped Potential
There are, however, signs of progress. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that rail cargo surged to 143,759 tonnes in Q2 2024, up from 56,936 tonnes in the same quarter of 2023—a near threefold increase in just a year.
This resurgence signals growing confidence in rail transport as an alternative to long-haul trucking. The Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC) also recently granted China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) a three-year license (2024–2027) to operate public goods carriage on the Lagos–Ibadan standard-gauge line, expanding private participation in freight.
“The steel is already in the ground, and trains are moving,” Jeremiah noted. “But what unlocks real value is the system around them—intermodal hubs, digital scheduling, and clear policy incentives for shippers to use rail for the long haul.”
He envisions modern logistics parks at key transport corridors such as Lagos–Ibadan, Kano–Kaduna, and Warri–Itakpe, where goods can be transferred seamlessly between trucks and trains. Supported by data-driven scheduling, these intermodal terminals could cut congestion, improve reliability, and reduce emissions.
How Smarter Road–Rail Logistics Save Money and Carbon
Drawing from his research in two-stage stochastic optimization, Gbadegoye has developed models that help logistics planners and policymakers simulate complex freight scenarios, accounting for fuel-price volatility, capacity constraints, and carbon costs. His energy-optimization work links those decisions to grid capacity, renewable integration, and storage—so rail terminals and future charging sites operate reliably and cost-effectively.
These tools determine:
- How much freight should shift from road to rail,
- Where to site intermodal terminals, and
- What incentives—such as carbon credits or tax relief—make the switch economically viable.
His findings show that even a 20 percent modal shift from road to rail could yield enormous dividends:
- Lower logistics costs, as rail is up to three times more fuel-efficient than trucking for bulk cargo;
- Reduced road wear and repair expenses, freeing billions for other sectors;
- Significant emissions reductions, cutting thousands of tonnes of CO₂ annually.
“It’s not about roads versus rail,” Jeremiah explained. “It’s about roads and rail working together—each mode used where it performs best. That’s how you stretch budgets and deliver reliability.”
This approach is already mainstream in Europe, India, and China, where integrated logistics corridors drive both cost savings and carbon efficiency. Nigeria, with its growing population and trade needs, stands to benefit even more.
Future-proofing: building today for the era of electric trucks
Jeremiah stresses that getting the rail–road interface right now also future-proofs Nigeria for the electrification of heavy transport.
As battery-electric trucks and megawatt-scale charging become commercially viable, the same intermodal hubs that feed rail can host depot-style fast charging, powered by grid-aware energy optimization—mixing renewables, battery energy storage, and smart tariffs. With rail hauling the long leg and electric trucks handling short, predictable first/last miles, Nigeria could decarbonize freight faster, cut diesel imports, and stabilize logistics costs.
“If we build the intermodal network now—with energy optimization in mind—the transition to electric freight will be cheaper and smoother,” he said. “We won’t be scrambling later; we’ll be plug-and-play ready.”
Unlocking Nigeria’s Rail Potential: A Policy Blueprint
Jeremiah proposes a five-point national roadmap to build a resilient, decarbonized logistics network:
1) Build Intermodal Freight Hubs
Develop strategic terminals at Lagos–Ibadan, Kano–Kaduna, and Warri–Itakpe with container handling, storage, security, and space for future EV truck charging.
2) Open the Market to Private Freight Operators
Encourage more private-sector participation under NRC supervision to boost competition, scheduling discipline, and service guarantees.
3) Create Mode-Shift Incentives
Introduce tax credits, railway tariff relief, and carbon certificates for companies shifting heavy tonnage from road to rail—calibrated by corridor data so they move real volumes, not just headlines.
4) Digitize Planning and Scheduling
Deploy AI-driven optimization (based on Jeremiah’s models) to manage routing, capacity, energy use, and pricing dynamically—turning rail steel and terminals into dependable, cost-predictable service.
5) Protect the Road Asset
Enforce overload limits, link enforcement to available rail capacity, and ring-fence maintenance budgets for corridors where documented mode shift reduces truck tonne-kilometres.
“If we can get these five steps right, the payback is almost immediate,” Jeremiah said. “We save money, improve safety, and start to decarbonize the economy at the same time.”
Why It Matters for Households and Businesses
The benefits of smarter freight systems extend beyond industry. Transport inefficiency feeds directly into higher consumer prices, since goods take longer and cost more to move.
When freight moves efficiently:
- Inflation pressure from logistics costs drops;
- Delivery times shorten;
- Local manufacturers and exporters become more competitive.
“This is about economic resilience,” Jeremiah explained. “Efficient transport lowers costs across the board—from food to building materials—and makes Nigeria’s exports more competitive in West Africa.”
Environmentally, freight transport is one of the largest CO₂ sources in the energy system. Rail emits far less carbon per tonne-kilometre than road. Even a partial shift would accelerate the Energy Transition Plan and net-zero ambitions, while improving urban air quality.
Challenges — and How to Overcome Them
Jeremiah acknowledges the road to reform will not be easy. Among the key barriers are:
- Connectivity Gaps: Limited rail access to ports, depots, and industrial clusters;
- Operational Inefficiency: Vandalism, service interruptions, and scheduling delays;
- Financing Constraints: High upfront costs for rolling stock, terminals, and energy systems;
- Data Limitations: Lack of accurate freight-flow and emissions data for evidence-based policymaking.
“We can’t manage what we don’t measure,” he said. “A national freight and emissions data platform—publicly accessible and regularly updated—would transform how we plan logistics.”
He also advocates blended financing—mixing public investment, concessions, and development finance—to build intermodal and energy infrastructure without overburdening government budgets.
The Way Forward
As Nigeria invests hundreds of billions of naira each year in roads that often degrade within a few rainy seasons, Gbadegoye’s message is clear: rebalance the freight system.
With ₦1 trillion spent on roads in 2024, ₦800 billion allocated to Works in 2025, and FERMA still needing nearly ₦900 billion annually for maintenance, the current model is financially unsustainable. A pivot toward rail-anchored intermodal freight would protect existing assets and lay a foundation for sustainable growth—and pave the way for a smooth transition to electric trucking when the market is ready.
“Rail is not an alternative — it’s the backbone of a cost-efficient, climate-conscious Nigeria,” Jeremiah concluded. “Let rail carry the heavy loads, let roads serve the people, and let our budgets finally breathe.”