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‘2015 poll: Jonathan is frustrated, desperate’

All Progressives Congress (APC) described yesterday the use of foul language at President Goodluck Jonathan’s campaigns as a sign of desperation and frustration.

Its National Secretary, Mallam Mala Buni, said the party would democratically defend its votes in next month’s elections, contrary to insinuations that it would use other means.

The party, he added, is committed to a violence-free poll.

Speaking on his party’s position on the next month’s elections with reporters in Abuja, Buni said: “That (foul language) tells you the President’s desperation. He knows certainly he is losing the election. You see for somebody to say Gen. Muhammadu Buhari represents darkness and President Jonathan represents light, maybe he is not in Nigeria.

“As a sitting President or a ruling party, what is expected of the PDP or Jonathan is to enumerate their achievements. When we are talking of Nigeria now, our number one priority is a consensus that we need security. We need to secure the environment first; we need to secure the country first before any other thing.

“It is all out of desperation. It is frustration because if you don’t have anything to say, you will mount the podium to say things that are not having any direct link with the people you are talking to.

“For somebody who fails to secure the environment or his own territory, will he be considered to be representing light? And will somebody who everybody knows has a track record of integrity be representing darkness? That comes only from a party like the PDP.

“They should have buried themselves in shame. All these things that they are saying are giving us more followers because everybody knows they are not telling the truth.

“What we expected will be their driving force or drive the process of their campaign would have been their achievements.

“You can now see out of desperation and emptiness, they don’t have anything to offer than attacking our candidate, Gen. Buhari, or attacking APC. So, you can now see the desperation. And that tells you they know they are losing the election.

January 12, 2015
APC elders fault Jonathan‘s campaign outbursts

The All Progressives Congress (APC) Elders’ Forum in Ekiti State has advised President Goodluck Jonathan to pull out of the presidential race for admitting failure in governance during the launch of his campaign in Lagos.

The body, which described the outburst of the President at the Lagos rally as “unpresidential, clearly offensive, aggressive, combative and appalling”, said Jonathan had shown that he lacked solutions to the myriads of problems facing the country.

The group’s Publicity Secretary, Dr. Bayo Orire, said Jonathan failed to use his campaign to convince Nigerians of his readiness to stop the slide of the country into deeper socio-economic ills.

Orire said Nigerians should not expect a purposeful leadership from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-led administration by the tone of the President’s speech, which he said dwelt much on attacks on personalities rather than issues.

He urged the electorate to vote for the APC’s presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who he believed has the integrity, maturity and experience needed to turn around the nation’s fortunes.

The medical doctor-turned politician said if successive administrations built on the anti-corruption stance of the military administration led by Buhari, corruption would have ended in the polity.

Orire explained that corruption would grow under the PDP administration, urging Nigerians to use their votes to send the umbrella party out of power.

He regretted that Jonathan failed to convince Nigerians on how he would solve insurgency, low level of industrialisation, unemployment, non-existent mechanised farming and general decay in infrastructure.

“The President disappointed many Nigerians with his outing in Lagos on Thursday and this has shown that he lacks the capacity to take the country out of the woods.

“Jonathan extrapolated wrongly putting something that happened 30 years ago on top of what should be done today.

“How would the solution that was appropriate for the low level of corruption that was experienced in the past be appropriate for today’s roof-top malady that we call corruption?

“He forgot that as in the 80s, there was little known about ICT to pay salaries. He forgot that you could pick people who were corrupt, they were visible unlike today.

“He forgot that when Buhari was in office, the people were queuing for buses. Nobody could throw rubbish on the streets. If the pace had been kept up, there would not have been corruption today in Nigeria.

“Judging from the campaign speech of the President, we should expect a purposeless leadership worse than what we are seeing now. The PDP had ruled us for 16 years and we are worse for it.

“We advise him to pull out of the race because he has told us that he would need a younger and more cerebral generation to rule this country.

“But we in the APC believe in maturity borne out of experience. We believe in team work where we can pool the sharpness of the young brains and the experience of the old.

“The President was talking of people not having brains in the APC. If nobody has brains in the APC, nobody has a skull in the PDP.”

January 12, 2015
Christian elders decry Mbaka’s comment on Jonathan

The Southern Nigeria Christian Elders’ Forum (SOCEF) yesterday faulted the “prophetic message” of Enugu Catholic Priest, Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, on President Goodluck Jonathan.,

Addressing reporters after their meeting in Enugu, it said Mbaka’s message was his opinion and not from the inspiration of the Holy Spirit.,

The meeting was attended by archbishops, bishops and other Christian leaders from the Southwest, Southsouth and Southeast, including Most Rev. A.N.C. Anikwenwa, Bishop Peter Ogunmuyiwa, Most Rev. Caleb Maduoma, Rev. Felix Ekiye, among others.,

No Catholic bishop was in attendance.

The Chairman of the forum, Bishop David Eberechukwu, who spoke, said it was not the first time Rev. Fr. Mbaka would make such claims.,

He went on: “In 2003, Mbaka said that then Governor Chimaroke Nnamani would not get re-election and that if that happened, he would remove his cassock. Indeed, Chimaroke was re-elected and up till today, he has not removed his cassock.,

“So, his message is just a personal opinion; it didn’t come from the impulse of the Holy Spirit.”,

* In a 10-point communiqué by the group, read by Bishop Eberechukwu, it said for the sake of equity and fairness, President Jonathan should be allowed to complete a second tenure on behalf of the Southsouth.,

“We note that the Southwest occupied the seat of the presidency for eight years, from 1999-2007. It was on the basis of the principle of rotation that the next President came from the Northwest. If the cold hands of death had not taken him away, that occupant would have been re-elected.,

“In the light of the above, it is our considered view and advice as Christians and citizens of this country that the Southsouth be given the same opportunity of a second term. Therein lies political equity, accommodation and stability.”,

Speaking on the need for stronger ties among the states in the zone, the forum urged the governors of the states in Southern Nigeria “to revitalise the Southern Nigeria Governors’ Forum for the sake of political co-operation and development.”,

SOCEF expressed concern about the plight of Christians in the North as well as “the challenges the nation faces, following the Boko Haram insurgency and political tension.,

“We note with dismay and deep sorrow, the plight of our Christian brethren in the North, the siege and persecution against them as a result of their faith, and urge all forces, federal, state and local governments, well-meaning leaders- local and international, to come to the aid of our Christian brethren in the North., “

January 12, 2015
We’re tired of Jonathan, says Ijaw group

An Ijaw group, President Goodluck Jonathan’s kinsmen, has said nothing has changed for the better under his administration.

The Ijaw group is clamouring for change, which it said the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, would provide.

The group, under the aegis of the Southsouth/Ijaw People United forum, spoke at a forum in Lagos through its Chairman, Isaac Emiyede, ahead of its preparation for the Lagos State governorship election on February 28 and other polls.

Emiyede noted that change was inevitable in life, adding that it would eventually happen in Nigeria.

He said: “It will not be business as usual in the 2015 polls. Nigerians are not ready to be deceived again.”

Speakers at the forum regretted the economic woes bedevilling the nation, with insecurity and corruption escalating.

The said poor governance had become the norm under the Jonathan administration.

Emiyede said: “…Gen. Buhari has shown leadership by example. We don’t need a microscope to see through him. He has shown integrity and discipline. This is a man who retired as Head of State and has no building in Abuja or Lagos. He has only a storey-building in Kaduna. He does not give out money to people.

“So, already, you know he is not corrupt. He has given a sign of where he is going. He is incorruptible. When the head is good, the body will be good. But when the head is rotten, the body cannot be good. So, if they say Gen. Buhari’s followers are not good, let us wait and give him a chance. It is the head that will drive the rest of the body. He is the one that will be in charge of appointments.

“In 2007, Jonathan and former President Umaru Yar’Adua met 3,000 megawatts (MW) on the ground. In 2014, we are producing only 3,450 MW after spending more than $50 billion. That is trillions of naira. So, Jonathan and Yar’Adua combined could only produce 450 megawatts of electricity. Can we continue with this system?”

January 12, 2015
Dokubo-Asari: Henry Okah wanted Jonathan dead since 2007

Leader of the Niger-Delta Peoples Volunteer Force, Ahajli Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, alleged that the plot to assassinate President Goodluck Jonathan by Henry Okah and his Movement for Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) was hatched before Jonathan became Nigeria’s president.

Dokubo-Asari, who spoke with reporters in Abuja at the weekend, also said it would be a painful decision for him to vote for the Rivers State governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chief Nyesom Wike, in next month’s elections.

He said the leaders of Niger-Delta, including Chief Edwin Clark, prevented Jonathan from speaking on the 2010 assassination attempt. The former militant leader noted that the president could no longer be deceived by leaders of the zone to maintain a silence on the matter.

He said: “For me, what the President said is belated. The President had known since 2007 that Henry Okah wanted to kill him. For not saying it, it is the fault of Ijaw leaders, including Clark, who have been saying hide this thing; sweep it under the carpet.

“And one day, the debris under the carpet will become too much that the carpet will be undulated. Now, it is undulated, the stench is coming out and the president could no longer hold it.

“He has now come out to say Henry Okah wanted to assassinate me, which was true”.

He explained that there were lots of clandestine activities by Okah in 2007 targeted at eliminating Jonathan when he was Bayelsa State governor because of his resistance to donate the state’s budget to him.

According to him, “Henry Okah wanted Goodluck Jonathan to pay him money. Go and read my write-up when I said “When Silence is not Golden” in 2007. I published a very lengthy Part One. Ijaw elders begged me not to reveal more in Part Two. It is ready, but I didn’t publish it because Chief Clark and others begged me not to publish it because I am revealing the secrets of Ijaw people. But I told them that this thing you people are doing will backfire.

“You are supporting evil. Tompolo and everybody were on me that I was revealing Ijaw’s secrets. I became their enemy and everything. If Henry Okah asks for money and you don’t give him, he attacks you. He asked Goodluck Jonathan when he was governor to share the budget and give him five per cent. Every month, five per cent of what they received must be given to them to service the boys. And Jonathan said No.

“Henry Okah invaded Government House with his boys, some of the people who are now claiming to support Jonathan invaded Government House, destroyed Government House. My people ran away with Goodluck. They went to Otueke, burnt down his country home in Otueke, thinking he was there. The governor ran.

“But there are people around him saying there must be unity among the ijaw people. If you recall, I am the only person who has been talking against Henry Okah. That man is a criminal. He is nobody. He doesn’t have the power they think he has.”

January 12, 2015
Mbaka’s sermon and Jonathan’s warriors

SIR:Following the prophetic warning by Rev. Fr. Ejike Camillus Mbaka forewarning Nigerians that continuity in governance by Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan will bring hardship to Nigerians, an army of Jonathan’s critics of Mbaka has sprouted out fearlessly attacking him.

Fr. Mbaka’s prophecy in sermon which warned Nigerians that Jonathan cannot lead Nigeria as things stand right now, is a welcome development. Dr. Jonathan and his army of Mbaka’s critics appeared to have been plagued by Pharaoh’s hard-heartedness as they have refused to take a lesson from King David’s open admission of his misdeeds and request for forgiveness following his lust for another man’s wife.

According to the Bible, King David, the anointed king in course of his reign as king of Israel looked through his palace and saw a beautiful woman taking her bath, and desired to have her. On inquiry, he discovered that the woman was Uriah’s wife. Rather than control his emotion, he decided to have Uriah killed in the battle ground for it was forbidden to take another’s wife.

Following King David’s evil deed, God sent his prophet, called Nathan who went to David and cursed him that sword would never depart from his house and that he would raise up evil against him. When Nathan told King David the message from God, rather than behave like Jonathan and his army of Mbaka critics, he admitted his evil, repented and asked for forgiveness. Nathan there and then reversed some of the curses and left some others and they came to pass.

Jonathan and his army are taking lessons from inglorious conduct of Ahab and Jezebel who sought to kill Prophet Elijah and Prophet Micaiah for fore-warning them of the pending doom. Jonathan should also note that when Ahab’s wife, Jezebel sought to kill Elijah, he, Elijah ran to Beer-Sheba and rested under a broom tree; which in Nigeria today, symbolizes APC.

If questions may be asked, which evil have Nigerians not suffered under Dr. Goodluck Jonathan? Is it ceaseless slaughtering of men, women and innocent children in the North with Jonathan not caring; the abduction and bombing of Nigerians with Jonathan having no remedy?

Is it countless loss of lives and goods of hardworking people of South-east on federal roads, the loss of lives of 19 job-seeking Nigerians with nobody punished? What of the extortion of N1,000 from about 700,000 Nigerian jobless youths with no job in sight and no refund made? Is it increase in fuel price from N65 pegged by late Yar’Adua to N97 under the promise of Eldorado which turned out to be deceit?

Is it lack of electricity at home, office and everywhere? Is it the lack of care to victims of abducted girls in Chibok when the same man postponed his campaign when he lost his sister? Which one will I mention and leave the other?

What is it that Rev. Father Mbaka said that the likes of Buruji Kashamu and one self-acclaimed national president of Ohaneze Youth Council should berate Father Mbaka in The Nation of January 5 and January 8 that is not the truth and known to Nigerians?

I know that Father Mbaka talked about Pastors selling their prophetic gifts because of porridge; however, I think, there are Nigerians who may want to turn to Jonathan’s porridge in so far as they continue to eat the crumbs from the masters table.

• Victor C. Nwaugo,

Aba, Abia State

January 12, 2015
Jonathan hypocritical over railway revival, says APC

The All Progressives Congress (APC) yesterday accused President Goodluck Jonathan of hypocrisy over his persistent claim of reviving the railway “when in actual fact he has bluntly refused to grant the necessary right-of-way approval to the Lagos Metropolitan Transport Authority (LAMATA) for the construction of its redline light rail project from Iddo to Ifo in Ogun State with a capacity to carry one million passengers per day.”

The APC said investors are ready to invest over one billion dollars in the project.

In a statement in Lagos, National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said that in failing to grant the approval, which has been pending since May 2013, President Jonathan premised his action on the fact that Lagos is an ‘’enemy state.”

His words: ‘’President Jonathan is simply being hypocritical when he listed the revival of the railway as part of his administration’s so-called achievements, during the kick-off of his electioneering campaign in Lagos, and during which he also tried to project himself and his party as friends of the South-west in general and Lagos in particular. His words and actions since assuming office six years ago do not support that

‘’He claims to have revived the railway but did not tell Lagosians how he has stopped, in its tracks, the LAMATA Red Line Light Rail Project that would have alleviated the suffering of Lagosians as they commute daily across the densely-populated city, not to talk of the loss of over 30,000 jobs that would have been created by the project.”

APC said there is no stronger indication that President Jonathan holds the Southwest in general and Lagos State in particular in contempt than his failure to grant the right-of-way approval for this project, considering its massive benefits that include ease of transportation, the decongestion of the city, the creation of at least 30, 000 jobs and the attraction of huge investments that the project, if approved, would have brought to the state.

‘’What about the new economic activities that would have been generated along and in the vicinity of that corridor of the new rail line if the president had granted the right-of-way approval? If indeed Mr. President is now a convert for economic growth and progress of Nigerians of all tribes who live in Lagos, as he pretended to be during his electioneering campaign flag-off, he should grant the approval today,’’ the party said

It said contrary to the image of friendship with the South-west in general and Lagosians in particular, which the president sought to project during his electioneering campaign in Lagos, he has nothing but contempt for the people of the region.

January 11, 2015
Why does Jonathan want four more years?

Like many others who looked forward to hearing why Jonathan wants four more years in office, I was surprised he blithely threw away the opportunity to make his case when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) kicked off its presidential campaign in Lagos on Thursday.

Much has already been said about his lack of composure and how agitated he looked. He had barely got going when he inserted his foot in his mouth by declaring that he and his generation were old, expired failures – effectively ruling himself out as an option.

Rather than explain to the watching world what he would do with another term that he could not accomplish in the almost six years he’s been in office, he spent the bulk of his time trying to demonise Buhari. Anyone watching would have thought the former head of state was the incumbent and the president the challenger.

At his next campaign stop in Enugu, he reached into the archives for the speech made by General Ibrahim Babangida to justify the overthrow of Buhari. He proceeded to read through the list of the ex-military ruler’s cabinet pointing out that it had no woman. He then asked rhetorically whether this was the sort of person Nigerians wanted to hand the country to.

I agree that if we are to put the president’s performance under scrutiny, Buhari’s record in office must also come under the spotlight. But such an examination is only relevant to the extent that it tells us something about the man’s character and his ability to do the job he seeks. It would have been especially relevant if Jonathan was not running and the two contenders were outsiders without any incumbency burden or record to defend.

However, this election is about much more than that. Though some would love to see it cast in those terms, it is NOT about Buhari’s past. It is a referendum on what Jonathan has done with power in his initial term. What candidates have done is usually the platform for seeking another term. That is why people should be asking themselves: Is my life better than it was four years ago? Given what I have seen can I endure another four years with this man in charge?

Those questions are not going to be answered by merely demonizing Buhari. The president and his team should ask themselves why in spite of their best efforts to cast the former head of state as a devil with two horns, his popularity isn’t waning.

Many frustrated Nigerians have reached the point where they are saying ‘Anyone but Jonathan.’ They are not hearing anything new from the man who wants four more years.

Four days before Jonathan came to Lagos, Boko Haram stormed the Nigerian town of Baga and razed it. Several other towns and villages suffered a similar fate. It is projected that as many as 2,000 people may have been killed in what Amnesty International is calling Nigeria’s worst massacre.

Many are still waiting to hear the president say what he would do differently to end the insurgency. They are waiting to hear when the Chibok girls would return. They want to hear about job creation initiatives; they are anxious to know what the plan is to cushion impending shocks arising from crashing crude oil price. And they are hearing nothing! Instead we are being assaulted with one long whine about how his predecessors did nothing.

The president spent his time playing the victim and being angry that the only one who can see the ‘great’ work he has done is himself. And there’s the rub! A while back, disturbed at unrelenting criticism of his administration, he once declared that his team would no longer depend on the media to rate it. They would henceforth assess themselves internally.

The trouble with that is we all look handsome when we peer in the mirror. The next person’s assessment of our looks might be radically different. Jonathan fails to realize that it is the job of ordinary citizens, the electorate, to assess him. It is not in his place to do so. We do the rating and decide whether he deserves another four years. Until he realizes that he would be giving himself serious heartburn.

But if he cannot make a compelling case for his second term, there are more than a few loyal party men eagerly waiting to do so. Take the unlikely example of the PDP gubernatorial candidate in Lagos State, Jimi Agbaje. A report in The Punch quoted him as warning that the South-South zone would shut down the economy if Jonathan wasn’t reelected. The PDP governorship candidate reportedly said this at meeting in London organised by his supporters and the UK chapter of the PDP.

That Agbaje hasn’t refuted the assertion is shocking. How can any democrat attempt to push a candidate on the basis of blackmail and threats? Democracy is about the freedom of a people to choose their leaders in an atmosphere devoid of intimidation. We can’t be browbeaten into voting for someone just because gunmen are going to attack the nation’s economic interests. That would no longer be a democracy but a thug-o-cracy.

Lest we forget, the Nigerian constitution only makes provision for individuals to run for two terms of four years each in the executive branch – and not an eight year stretch. The allocation is to persons and not their zones or regions. Political parties in their internal arrangements may opt to keep positions in certain areas but whoever they choose still has to make a case for us to reject or endorse. Make your case Mr. President.

January 11, 2015
‘Jonathan will be PDP’s last president’

The Founder/Spiritual Head of Inri Evangelical Church Lagos, Primate Elijah Ayodele, spoke with Adetutu Audu, on the forthcoming elections, among sundry issues. Excerpts:

What should Nigerians be looking forward to in 2015?

2015 is a year that Nigerians are expecting so many things. Many people have been saying that Nigeria will breakup but I can tell you that Nigeria will not breakup in 2015.

Nigeria will still remain a as, country in 2015 but we need a lot of prayers against bloodbath. We need prayers for God to protect the country especially in the political scene because so many unexpected things will happen.

Politically, what do you foresee?

Nigerian politics still needs a lot of prayers. We need to be prayerful to avert many politicians getting involved in accidents.

The election will not breakup Nigeria. There will be partial peace in some places while there will be no peace in some places. I don’t see Nigeria remaining a single nation in the next 30 years. Jonathan will be the last PDP’s president.

I see a new government coming up in this country. If Jonathan eventually wins in 2015, PDP will not have it in 2019. The party will break.

I don’t see APC capturing Abia State. If APGA works hard it will capture Abia, albeit I see rigging in the state. Rivers is another state we need to pray hard about so that there will be no stealing of ballot papers and there will be no killing. APC will want to retain the state and PDP too will not want to give up. These are the things we need to pray about for God to take total control. APC and PDP will share the northern part of the country.

Buhari should not be overwhelmed because the PDP will go with their foot soldiers to make sure that they get some. If the APC is not careful, PDP will take part of the south west from them. Let us pray that APC will not lose any of its BOT members and also in PDP.

A top APC leader, Obasanjo and Edwin Clark are playing their last politics. Some of them would be disappointed. We should pray so that there would not be crisis in the judiciary in Lagos, Rivers, Kano and Kaduna in particular.

There is going to be a change in our constitution as well. They will try to implement some of the things in the constitution and in the process there would be arguments. There would be a lot of discussion on our constitution after the elections.

Insecurity has been a serious challenge. Would this abate in 2015?

Jonathan must handle the issue of security very well because terrorism has come to stay in the country. Even if another government comes in today, it will not be able to fight Boko

Haram. Boko Haram will be targeting markets, motor parks and will abduct more children. We have Al Qaeda, ISIS teaming up with Boko Haram in the country right away.

We would need a lot of prayers to manage it. It is going to take the government a longer time to defeat Boko Haram. We also need to be very careful because I see explosions in many places, bomb blasts. Even in the South West here, we need to be very careful.

We also need to pray against tanker explosion. We are going to have ocean surge and also sea pirates with the federal government calling for assistance on this. Kidnapping will be on the increase and another wave of criminality will evolve. The police will try their best but there will be changes in our security network, namely the army, the Navy the Customs, the Immigration and the Prisons.

We should pray that there should not be a jail break. Journalists must be watchful. The NUJ in particular must be watchful because politics will tear the body apart. Some banks will face crisis. Let us pray against the death of any journalist in the year. Let us pray that we don’t lose any emir and prominent Oba in the southwest.

A traditional ruler will be dethroned in the east. We should also pray that the country does not run into debt. We must pray hard against ship capsize.

There are fears that the fall in oil price may spell doom for the country in 2015. What is your take on this?

I have not seen anything fantastic happening to our economy. Very soon, it will affect the rich too. I foresee a lot of problems in the CBN. There would re-organisation, re-shuffling and formation of policies that may not work for some commercial banks.

CBN will get it wrong in some areas and some banks will lay off some of their staff. Some communication companies will also lay off some of their staff. The prices of food stuff will go up. The prices of fish will go up.

I see shares doing fine in the early parts of the year. I have not seen anything fantastic happening to unemployment. The prices of petroleum will go up. Let us pray against pipeline explosion and breakdown. There is going to be a lot of crisis in the NNPC and there would be new refinery. Some of the oil we are having will dry up.

In the next 15 years, our oil may not be as rich as it has always been. Some states will break down economically in 2018 and 2019 because of debt. We need to pray hard so that 20 of all the states that we have do not break down economically. Our foreign reserve will experience crisis. I have not really seen anything cheering about it.

What other issues should the people look up to in the year?

Let us pray very well that no calamity happens in the aviation sector because it is possible that we are going to witness air crash. Nigeria Air Force will lose their plane through crash.

Let us pray as well so that we do not see death in the army. I want to beg the president to pardon these 54 soldiers that have been sentenced to death. There is so much blood that is crying and the land is not at peace. If the President allows them to be killed, it will affect the progress of this country.

He can dismiss them or punish them in another form instead of killing them. Boko Haram will want to attack the barracks and let us pray against any police headquarters being engulfed by fire.

January 11, 2015
Buhari dares Jonathan in South-South

The 2011 presidential election in the South-South region was literally a stroll in the park for President Goodluck Jonathan, but recent events in the run-up to next month’s presidential poll suggests that unexpected surprises should not be ruled out this time around, reports Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo

The 40, 000-capacity Adokiye Amiesimaka International Stadium in Port- Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, was agog on Tuesday during the flag- off of the presidential campaign of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Man of the moment, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the main opposition party, was in a convivial mood as he mounted the podium to address the over 50, 000 estimated crowd.

As he reeled out his plans and programmes if elected as president on February 14 to the huge and enthusiastic audience, the former military Head of State would have been chuckling inside of him wondering how his support base in the state, nay the South-South region, has gone full cycle within a space of four years.

Rewind to the scenario in 2011 when the Katsina-born retired Army General was practically a political persona non grata, whose only campaign in the whole of the region was in Yenagoa, the Bayelsa State capital, with a dismal attendance to boot.

But times have changed. Now running on a bigger and broader political platform, Buhari has kicked off his campaign in the home base of his major opponent, President Goodluck Jonathan who, predictably, recorded a landslide victory in the 2011 presidential election in the oil-rich region.

Breakdown of 2011 results

In the weeks and days preceding the 2011 election, it was obvious Buhari, then contesting on the platform of six-month old Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), would be trounced by the president in the South-South zone. And the breakdown of the results aptly confirmed earlier forecasts.

In Edo State, President Jonathan won with a wide margin, polling 542, 173 votes as against Buhari’s 17, 795 votes. Number of registered voters in the state in 2011 was 1, 412, 225.

In his home state of Bayelsa, the president got 504, 811 votes exceeding the number of registered voters put at 472, 389 voters. Buhari recorded a paltry 691 votes.

Rivers State people massively queued behind Jonathan, recording a landslide victory of 1, 817, 762 votes, with Buhari getting just 13, 182 votes. Total number of registered voters was 2, 419, 057.

The scenario in Akwa Ibom State was not different. The president had 1, 165, 629 votes as against 5, 348 voters who voted for Buhari. A total number of 1, 714, 781 voters registered for the election.

It was also a big haul for the president in Delta State garnering 1, 378, 851 votes out of the total registered voters of 1, 900, 055 to Buhari’s 8, 960, while in Cross River state with a voter figure of 1, 018, 550, Jonathan had 709, 382 votes as against 4, 002 votes for Buhari.

Factors that worked for Jonathan in 2011

Central to Jonathan’s resounding victory in the South-South in 2011 was the home boy factor, a development that ensured that both registered and non-registered voters spoke with one voice.

Coupled with this is the quest by the people of the zone to have their “son” as Nigeria’s democratically elected president for the first time in the country’s political history. It was one golden opportunity that the people of the region readily grabbed with both hands.

Another factor that worked maximally in the president’s favour during the polls is the grass to grace campaign slogan of the president which resonated not only in the South-South but across the country.

The president’s “easy victory” in the region, many posit, could also be attributed to the control of five out of the six states in the region, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers and Delta by his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with the exception of Edo State then controlled by the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) now fused into the APC.

The five PDP governors comprising of Godswill Akpabio (Akwa Ibom), Timipre Sylvia (Bayelsa), Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) and Emmanuel Uduaghan (Delta) reportedly mobilised government machinery behind Jonathan in their states, just as Governor Adams Oshiomhole of Edo, though belonging to the opposition, was also alleged to have provided tacit support for Jonathan’s presidential aspiration.

2015 poll presents different scenarios

Unlike in 2011, when the groundswell of support for the president in the South-South was as overwhelming as it was widespread, political watchers say the scenario currently playing out as the February 14 presidential election approaches is a clear indication that the president has a big battle to contend with if he is to repeat his 2011 electoral feat.

From the controversies trailing the PDP primaries in most of the South-South states, to the defection of big wigs in the party to the APC and the peculiarities of the local politics in Delta and Akwa Ibom states, owing to the zoning formula adopted by the ruling party, appears to have seriously fragmented the ruling party down the line thereby putting its chances at the polls in jeopardy.

The first indication that the president was losing grip of control of his region was the defection of Governor Rotimi Amaechi and ex-governor, Timipre Sylva to the APC early in 2014.

And despite overt and covert moves by the Presidency to remove Ameachi from office, the governor has not only consolidated his hold on the state, he has since become a thorn in the flesh of his traducers with his regular and scathing criticisms of the president, his wife, Dame Patience Jonathan and the PDP-led federal government.

What is more, Amaechi as the Director-General of the Buhari Campaign Organisation, has given more fillip to the APC presidential campaign. That the APC also flagged off its presidential campaign in Rivers State was even more instructive.

Compare and contrast this to the subdued tension within the Rivers PDP still battling to contain the disenchantment of some governorship aspirants kicking against the candidacy of Barrister Nyesome Wike.

Efforts by the party leadership to calm frayed nerves have only recorded a marginal success, with many of the aspirants allegedly threatening to work against the party during the polls.

Sylva is also another former ally of the president turned foe. From the same state, Bayelsa with the president, both men no longer see eye to eye, a situation not unconnected to the unceremonious exit of Sylva from the Bayelsa Government House in 2012 allegedly at the president’s behest.

The former governor is now a chieftain of the APC to whose credit the opposition party has established a presence in Bayelsa State. Sylva, who sources say is still highly influential within some powerful circles in the state, is also the APC senatorial candidate for Bayelsa East.

With a campaign slogan, “A home job for a home boy,” many Bayelsans are reportedly in support of Sylva to clinch the senate seat against his main challenger, Mr. Ben Bruce of the PDP, who is viewed rightly or wrongly as an “outsider.”

And in Edo State, the president has an uphill task to win the state next month. Not only is the governor fully on the board of his party’s campaign this time around unlike in 2011, Gen. Buhari’s chances in the state is further boosted on account of the influence of the APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, who hails from the state.

Disturbing signals for the president is also coming from Akwa Ibom, with many PDP leaders defecting to the APC in protest against the governorship primaries of the party, which produced Udom Emmanuel, Governor Godswill Akpabio’s anointed candidate.

The APC is presently fancying its chances in next month’s polls as it boasts formidable politicians in the state including former Secretary to the State Government, Umana Okon Umana, a former ally of the governor, who is now the party’s governorship candidate.

Other major stakeholders who are not on the same page with the governor and indeed the PDP in the state are two former governors, Akpan Isemin and Obong Victor Attah, Senator Helen Esuene, Dr. Ime Umanah and former Minister of Petroleum, Don Etiebet, to mention but a few.

The changing political permutations in Delta State is also another major challenge the president must contend with in his desire to win the state come next month.

Sources disclosed that the Urhobos, the largest voting bloc in the state, are peeved with the president and the PDP for not ceding the party’s governorship ticket to the ethnic group, while vowing to work against the president’s re-election.

The APC, it was gathered, is waiting in the wings to reap from this slip with recent reports claiming that the party’s governorship candidate in the state, Otega Emerhor, is facilitating a meeting between Gen. Buhari and the leadership of the Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), the umbrella body of the ethnic nationality anytime from now.

The outcome of the meeting, sources aver, would go a long way to determine where the Urhobos would cast their lot in the 2015 governorship and presidential elections.

Conclusion

Within the political circles, fears are being expressed that President Jonathan many not have an easy run in the six states within the South-South geo-political zone.

Unlike in 2011 when the region stood in solidarity behind Jonathan irrespective of political affiliations, major political stakeholders are presently speaking in discordant tunes for and against the president, and in the process allowing the major opposition party to make a huge inroad into the region.

A source puts it this way, “While the opposition is making incursion into the president’s main stronghold, the same cannot be said of the president in the opposition’s strongholds.”

But for many political analysts, the president is still the man to beat in the six South-South states, but with visible bruises to show for it.

January 11, 2015