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Tag: Jonathan

Re: Babangida endorses Jonathan
SIR: Penultimate week, all the major newspapers splashed the above as their lead story. This was as a result of the so-called visit to the former Head of State, General Ibrahim Babangida, by the President Goodluck Jonathan, but which was made public courtesy of the members of the journalistic profession.

This writer is not surprised, like other Nigerians about the open endorsement of President Jonathan. This is because of the well-known antecedents of the former Head of State as a strong foe of General Muhammadu Buhari, taking into account how General Babangida overthrew the erstwhile Head of State in 1985. Since then, General Babangida does not believe in General Buhari, though they have reconciled the differences they have.

The bottomline of this piece, is essentially that no matter what, General Babangida, cannot and is not in a position to direct the position of the north now. This is because he has lost the goodwill he has to speak on behalf of the north.

He has lost his esteem in the eyes of the people of this country more especially he failed in his capacity as a former leader of this country and as a soldier, to use the opportunity he has to comment or advise the government to adopt measure(s) to halt what is happening in the north due to the activities of terrorists especially in the North-eastern parts of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states.

The reason why General Babangida believes in the present administration is simply because he can still call the shots either they are proper or not than under General Buhari, who is a strong advocate of things to be done in the right way. It is pertinent to stress the point, that General Buhari will neither condone nor give room for corruption to thrive in whatever ramification. This time it is really the crossroads for Nigerians for a change and from all indications, the people are ready to vote Buhari.

Things have degenerated to a level that requires the services of people like the General to move the country forward. Nobody has the capacity to put asunder the change being advocated by the people, who have not seen anything meaningful done under the ruling party, especially under the current President onathan.

The likes of General Babangida are the architects of the myraid of problems confronting this great country, ranging from corruption, lack of development and unemployment of teeming graduates.

The fourth attempt for the presidency of this great country by General Buhari is consistent with the call by the people of the country, who want a radical departure from misgovernance, corruption, nepotism, etc. It is better for GeneralBabangida and his likes to be quiet as the people are ready to give them the shock of their lives in 2015.
- Usman Santuraki,
Jambutu, Jimeta-Yola.
January 5, 2015
Jonathan loses sister

Younger sister of President Goodluck Jonathan, Mrs. Nancy Jonathan-Olei, 52, is dead.
Mrs. Jonathan-Olei according to a statement by Presidential Spokesman, Dr Reuben Abati, passed away on Sunday at a hospital in Yenagoa after a brief illness.
Burial arrangements will be announced later by the family.

January 4, 2015
Nigeria’s future is bright , says Jonathan

Despite the challenges confronting the nation, President Goodluck Jonathan on Sunday assured that Nigeria’s future is bright and will get to the promised Land.

He made the remark while speaking during the First Sunday of the Year service at the St. Stephens Anglican Church, Otuoke, Bayelsa State.

He was optimistic that things will turn around for the country with its huge potentials.

Jonathan said that his administration will continue to tap into the potentials in order to move the country forward.

The President noted that this period is a challenging one for the entire world.

” We have a lot of potentials and I see a bright future for the country. Despite the challenges and bumps, Nigeria will move on and get to the promised land.”

Delivering the sermon, the officiating pastor who is the Bishop of Ogbia Diocese, Rev James Aye Oruwori urged the congregation to avoid committing sin and keep a strong covenant relationship with God so as to fight all their battles.

Recalling the encounter between David and Goliath in the Holy Bible, he said that the former’s strong covenant with God gave him victory.

He urged Nigerians to remain calm ahead of the forthcoming general elections, saying that God had already taking a decision on the outcome.

According to him, nobody can alter the decision.

He said: “God has written his decision on the next election, no one can change it. He wrote the decision long ago. Election is the biggest thing we are expecting this year, we must stop exhibiting fear. We should be calm and abide by God’s decision,” he said.

January 4, 2015
Jonathan’s unabated pessimism

SPEAKING at a church service in Abuja last Sunday, President Goodluck Jonathan seemed nonplussed the country he presides over was experiencing more problems than when he assumed office. “We are facing a lot of challenges now as a nation,” he said tersely. “The challenges did not start today but somehow, instead of abating, the problems started increasing for one reason or the other.” How that statement did not occur to him as an admission of failure is hard to say. Indeed, in his inimitable fatalism, he thought the country was fated to endure the problems, for after all, even one’s closeness to God, he philosophised, did not make you immune to them.

Said he: “I always say that whenever I read the Bible, especially the Old Testament, particularly the journey of the Israelites from Egypt to the promised land, the kind of challenges they faced; their confrontations, the wars up to the days of King David, they were always fighting. You may need to ask, why should children of God continue to be fighting? I believe what is happening to us is not even as serious as sometimes the passages we read in the Bible and God saw them through.” The problem with rudimentary knowledge of the bible is that inferences and conclusions are often misplaced. Should President Jonathan permit himself the task of actually studying the scriptures, he will discover the true rational behind the wars fought by the Jews.

Since the president has a rather superficial understanding of the scriptures, he seems fated not to learn the rich lessons they provide for the wayfarer. He has made up his mind that since the Israelites endured unstable stretches in their history, Nigeria could not be different. He is unable to see that nations contrastingly do enjoy long stretches of stability and progress for espousing and implementing justice, equity, fair play, in short, righteousness, and that rewards normally accompany good deeds. Rather than surrender supinely to fatalism, a statesman of deep understanding will naturally investigate reasons behind the turmoil countries experience from time to time, and determine what can be done to avoid repeating history or at least mitigating its consequences.

But what is perhaps most appalling in the president’s exegesis last Sunday is his admission that rather than abate, Nigeria’s problems were increasing. So, in effect, the problem is not that Nigeria has problems, which he reasoned predated his tenure, but that the problems, under his watch, were stupefyingly increasing. For this, there can be no exegetical explanation. The simple and obscene fact is that by his admission, the problems were increasing. In other words, under him, the problems had worsened; and they have worsened, not because his predecessors made it so, or because God mysteriously decreed it, but because he lacks the discipline, wisdom and altruism to redress the problems.

His superficial religiosity leads him to visit churches for prayers to remedy the country’s grave ills, instead of the emendations which spiritual contrition should lead him to. He gave this bewildering explanation: “One of the reasons I go round churches, at least in Abuja, is to thank my brothers and sisters for the prayers they have been having for the country, the government and me.” He is not telling the truth. His visits to churches are a disingenuous attempt to whip up religious sentiment and rally the faithful behind him. He can fool worshippers; he can’t fool God. Why is he still surprised that under him the country’s problems are worsening? Does God no longer reward faithfulness, and does righteousness no longer exalt a nation?

January 4, 2015
Between Goodluck and Buhari

While the Jonathanians cannot distinguish their boss from renowned cerebral entities like Martin Luther King Jr, Nelson Madiba Mandela and even our Lord Jesus, they have continued to rant and rabble-rouse as they leave issues by refusing to highlight his major achievements viz-a-viz the basic tenets of his proposed “transformation” agenda and the impact to a common Nigerian. The Goodluck apologists have only told us the sudden increase in GDP which according to them has led to Nigeria being the largest economy in Africa.

Needless do I accentuate the fact that a country’s GDP does not measure the environmental impact of growth, nor sustainability. A good economist will attest to the fact that it’s possible that GDP is growing up but median income going down and poverty rate increasing. Hence, the criticism of GDP as a flawed metric of economic growth by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz.

Indeed, Nigeria’s problem never started with GEJ, but further aggravation of the economy and the infliction of pains on the masses rather than amelioration by this administration cannot be quick to be dispelled. The over one million internally displaced persons had their own share of the woes; this will undeniably deny their children access to basic education. The drama behind the captured Chibok girls still lingers in our memories, even with the hope of them returning to their parents fading away as recently admitted by the federal government.

The recent pronouncement by the Minister of Power that power generation and transmission has dropped to about 2000MW calls for serious concern, despite the huge investment in the power sector. The commercialisation of education and lack of basic infrastructure in our learning institutions show the level of gross incompetence of this administration, just to mention a few.

As of today, most Nigerians would agree with me that the presidential contest is between Jonathan and Buhari. We might not have found an angelic saviour, yet we have been provided with the next best alternative. Buhari, popularly called Mei Gaskiya (The Custodian of truth), has been birthed for the fourth consecutive time on a rescue mission. A man whose integrity and reputation has not been soiled by the murky waters of Nigeria’s politics, a man who believes stealing is analogous to corruption. Little wonder because of his increasing acceptance, he had been painted to be a religious bigot and a semi-literate “jackboot” by those who have refused to account for the “missing” $20bn federation account. As part of their plot to resist common sense revolution, they call him an old man, while they fail to realise that those who governed India and led her to one of the best twenty economies through their policies are octogenarians. They fail to realise that the common man has preference for a secondary school certificate holder who has integrity and can give them electricity to a PhD holder who cannot preserve their territorial integrity, give them quality education and security.

It is time for Nigerians to choose between hope and despair, between accountability and looting, between leadership and ruler ship, between a visionary and visionless leader, between mass employment and unemployment and ultimately between light and darkness. I agree with a columnist who said we need Buhari more than he needs us.

Give us GMB/OSINBAJO…..Sai Buhari

Adetayo Peter

archallusmcb@yahoo.com

January 4, 2015
2015: Ministers, PDP govs get marching order to deliver states

Ministers and governors of PDP-controlled states have a new assignment from the Presidency in the run-up to next month’s elections: deliver their states to the party and President Goodluck Jonathan.

To aid them in the assignment is a massive war chest, much of it from the over N21billion realised at the recent fund raising by the PDP.

This followed feelers from different parts of the country, suggesting a groundswell of support for the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari, especially in the North and most parts of the South-West.

There are also concerns at the Presidency about the lack of enthusiasm to the Jonathan re-election project by some PDP stalwarts.

Leaders of the APC are due to meet either on Monday or Tuesday to ratify the party’s presidential campaign team.

Investigation by our correspondent revealed that the Presidency is uncomfortable that the PDP has failed to make appreciable inroads into the North and the South-West barely 44 days to the presidential election.

Although Vice-President Namadi Sambo has already visited several Northern states on reconciliation shuttles , it was learnt that the PDP is still having challenges in Sokoto, Kaduna, Kebbi, Borno, Yobe, Kano, Zamfara, Bauchi, Adamawa, Oyo, Ondo, Kwara, Nasarawa, Benue states

A party source familiar with the development spoke of anxiety in the Presidency over some states in the North and some parts of the South-West.

“The reality is that the Presidency and the PDP have accepted the reality that a stiff contest is imminent between the ruling party and the opposition. The permutations so far do not add up yet.

“This is why the Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Chief Tony Anenih, is being brought on board as the National Campaign Adviser to avail the Presidential Campaign Organization his experience.

“If it means negotiating to win some states in the North, the Presidency and the PDP are ready to do that,” the source said.

The Deputy National Chairman (North) of the APC, Sen. Shuaibu Lawal, said: “My simple reaction is that whatever outreach the PDP and the Presidency make, they will not get the support of the people of the North and Northern Emirs.

“Everyone in the North is tired of maladministration of the PDP. This is why these emirs are spearheading the desire for change in the country. Whatever they offer, they cannot get the support of these emirs.”

It was gathered that the signs of a tight presidential race forced the Presidency to ask ministers and governors to deliver their states for Jonathan and the PDP.

Another source added: “Very soon, most of the ministers will relocate to their states to rev up the campaign through a heavy war chest. They are under intense pressure to deliver their states.

“The same heat was put on them when most ministers were compelled to contribute to the rallies of the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) in all the six geopolitical zones in the country.

“All the governors have been advised to lead the campaign in the PDP-controlled states. Ministers will play pivotal campaign roles in states under the opposition. You can see why some governors have become confused by embarking on the mass purchase of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) for electoral mischief.”

Meanwhile, the APC will on Monday or Tuesday ratify the list of members its Presidential Campaign Committee at a session in Abuja.

It was gathered that the party’s leadership has already invited some stalwarts of the APC for a meeting on the list.

A former Minister of Communication, Chief Audu Ogbeh, who is also an ex-National Chairman of the PDP, is the APC National Campaign Adviser.

A leader of the APC said: “We are raising a crack team which would reflect all the tendencies in the party and earn us victory at the poll in February.

“Hopefully by Monday or Tuesday, we should be done with the campaign team. We had spent the past few weeks consulting and getting input from our leaders.”

January 3, 2015
Emergency plans responsible for wobbling economy, says Jonathan

President Goodluck Jonathan has attributed the wobbling state of the nation’s economy to the abandonement of long-term economic plans in favour of emergency options.

Jonathan, who spoke yesterday during the New Year Celebration Service at the Dunamis International Gospel Centre, Abuja, said his administration was taking corrective measures to address the issue by reverting to the old days when the economy was run on long-term plan models.

He said with the collective efforts of all Nigerans, the country’s challenges, including terror and the dwindling oil prices, will be defeated just like the Ebola Virus Disease a few months back.

“For you to achieve anything, you must have a clear vision. Even if you look at what we have been doing as a nation, you will really see that before this time when the country used to have this 25-year plan, the budget was based on 25 years clear plan for the country. So you know where you are going for 25 years. Then it is broken down into five-years plan with an annual budget and we knew where we were going,” he said.

“But after sometime, things collapsed and we run government on emergency basis and you see government started wobblling. We are going back to those good days when we have vision. We have plan for agriculture, we have plan for industry, we have plan for automobile and many other areas.

“If you have a vision, any proposal that comes in, no matter how good they are, must fall into your vision for it to go through.”

He noted that the prayers of committed Christians and religious leaders in the past three years, have made Nigeria overcome both external and internal conspiracies against the country.

Noting that the nation has been calm on the issue of terrorism since the Christmas period, he expressed confidence that Nigeria will overcome its challenges, including terrorism, adding that the calmness was achieved as a result of prayers of Nigerians and what the government was doing underground.

“With your prayers, surely as a nation, we will get to where our vision will take us to,” he stated.

He said he would do his best to come up with prgrammes that will help the masses, streesing that Nigerians comment daily on the twin problems of insecurity and corruption, assuring that everything is being done to curb the excesses.

He said government is coming out with programmes and plans to clean up the aegean-stable. “These are things that you dont just use magical wand to wave off otherwise there won’t have been corruption in Nigeria.”

He pointed out that it is not just about trying corruption… and looking at one person, arrest the person and show him on television, it is about stregthening institutions and coming up with credible plans to make sure that anybody who gets involved with corruption, the system must have a way of detecting him and punishing him.”

“Until you set such a system on ground, you cannot talk about corruption, you will just be celebrating corruption.”

He noted that 2015 is a turning point for the country as he asked for more prayers for God’s wisdom to be bestowed on politicians in order not to set the country ablaze in their strides to achieve their personal agenda.

Delivering the sermon entitled, ‘The Life of Vison’, the Senior Pastor of the church, Dr. Paul Enenche, noted that how one begins anything is critical to how it ends.

He said: “To live by chance is to end by chance. Without a clear vision, stagnation is inevitable. Those who see clearer run faster. Vision is the compass of destiny.”

The church also prayed for the President and the nation for the success of the 2015 elections.

The congreggation also prayed for the God’s grace and courage for the President to conduct credible elections as they prayed against anyone that wants to get to office without the votes of the people.

January 2, 2015
Pray for peaceful polls, Jonathan urges Muslims at Eid-El-Maulud

President Goodluck Jonathan has greeted Muslims as they mark the birth of Prophet Muhammed today.

Jonathan, in a statement by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Dr. Reuben Abati, urged Muslims as they celebrate Eid-el- Maulud to offer special Jumat prayers for successful and peaceful elections next month.

He reassured the faithful and other Nigerians that the Federal Government would ensure that the general elections are free, fair, credible and violence-free.

This, Jonathan said, is essential to guarantee that the country remained politically stable and on a steady path to the fulfillment of its collective vision of a strong, united and prosperous nation.

He also called on adherents of Islam to seize the opportunity of the new year and Eid-el-Maulud holidays to reflect on the need for greater application of the Prophet Mohammed’s teachings of piety, charity, tolerance, justice and peaceful co-existence with others in the collective effort to overcome national challenges.

Jonathan assured the Islamic faithful and other Nigerians that his administration would continue to be guided by the ideals of fairness, equity and justice for all.

He added that on his watch as President, no Nigerian will ever be discriminated against on the basis of religion, ethnicity or social standing.

January 2, 2015
Our plan for Nigerians, by Jonathan, Buhari

•President promises one man one vote •APC candidate issues five-point agenda

This year’s elections will be free and fair, the President has promised.

Dr. Goodluck Jonathan is facing a major challenge from All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Gen. Muhammadu Buhari in the February 14 election.

The president is seeking re-election on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Jonathan made the promise in his New Year message broadcast this morning. He said his involvement in the campaigns notwithstanding, the government would not be distracted from “its ongoing effort to significantly improve their living conditions”.

Dr. Jonathan pledged to continue to take steps to insulate “the poor and low-medium income earners from the full brunt of measures included in the 2015 budget to ensure the stability of the national economy in the face of the current downturn in the prices of crude oil”.

In his New Year message, Gen. Buhari urged Nigerians not to lose hope because change is imminent. Besides, he listed five ways on which he plans to make a difference – if elected.

The President vowed that the government would deal with those who threaten the public peace before, during and after the elections.

He said the economy – rocked by low oil price, low industrial production due to high energy losts and an unstable naira, among others – had made progress.

Jonathan said: “By the special grace of God, the Federal Government, under my leadership, has continued, in the past four years to lead our country forward, even under the most trying circumstances. The progress we have made in priority areas bears us testimony.

“Our national economy maintained a steady growth rate of close to seven per cent in the past four years and millions of fresh employment opportunities were created for our people as a direct consequence.

“Being very conscious of the inherent perils of our over-reliance on income from crude oil exports for national development, we have focused on accelerating the diversification of our economy.

“The non-oil sector which has grown by an average of 8% in the last few years, is now a major driver of growth in our economy.

“The 2015 national budget, which is now before the National Assembly, is targeted at deepening our efforts at becoming a non-oil economy.

“The budget also includes measures to ensure that the downturn in the price of oil does not affect our development plans and our national economy too adversely. We are adjusting our financial processes to safeguard our economy. We are also taking steps to ensure that the poor and the low and medium income earners do not bear the brunt.

“In 2015, this administration will continue to lay the foundation for a vibrant economy that attracts significant Foreign Direct Investment and promotes policies that ensure economic stability.

“We will ensure stability in the value of the Naira by striving to take away speculative behaviours that cause market exchange pressures.

“We will continue to build and maintain a healthy external reserves position and strengthen fiscal buffers. We will ensure the Naira remains strong, and gives foreign investors the clarity and certainty that they need, to guide future investment decisions.

“We will continue to improve our payment systems and strengthen risk-based supervision mechanism for Nigerian banks to ensure overall health and stability of the banking system,” President Jonathan said.

The President reassured Nigerians and the global community of his administration’s resolute commitment to free, fair, credible and acceptable elections.

He also warned that a firm and decisive action will be taken against any individual or groups who attempt to disrupt the public peace before, during or after the 2015 elections.

“The elections are very important for us as a country. Their successful conclusion will further strengthen our democratic institutions and place our beloved country even more firmly in the comity of truly democratic nations.

“Given the challenges that have characterised some previous electoral contests in our country, the eyes of the world will certainly be on the conduct and outcome of our fifth post-military rule general elections.

“I reassure all Nigerians and the international community of our firm commitment to free, fair and credible elections. My commitment to free elections and one man, one vote remains unwavering.

“Our administration has worked hard in previous elections to prepare all key stakeholders, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies and the electorate optimally, to ensure a progressively improved electoral process in the country under my watch. We will continue to do so for the coming elections.

“We will continue to provide adequate funding to INEC and maintain the Commission’s independence and isolate it from any form of interference or meddling in its day-to-day affairs. This shall continue to guarantee its impartiality and ability to conduct more credible and acceptable elections.

“National security agencies will also be given all necessary support to enhance their ability to ensure that the elections are peaceful and violence-free.

“I am optimistic that with the cooperation of all law-abiding citizens of the country, our commitment to have a peaceful and violence-free election will be actualised.”

The President emphasised peace, urging that the election should be violence-free.

He said: “I will like to say this, once again, to my fellow politicians and political leaders. None of our political ambitions is worth the blood of any of our countrymen, women and children. The improvement of their lives and living conditions ought to be our primary motive and the driving force of our quest for political power and leadership positions.

“Let us not promote sectionalism, disunity, intolerance, hate, falsehood or the malicious abuse of political opponents. Whatever we feel or seek, we must have a nation and a people before we can dream of political ambitions. Let us put the nation and the people first.

“Let us all conduct our electoral campaigns with the highest possible decorum and civility towards political opponents. Let us give INEC the fullest possible support and cooperation it requires to conduct credible and violence-free elections in 2015.

“After the 2011 general elections, some unpatriotic elements embarked on an orgy of violence, resulting in the destruction of lives and property. That will not be allowed to happen this time around. This government will act decisively against anyone who disrupts the public peace, before, during or after the 2015 general elections.”

“All Nigerians, of voting age, are free to vote, based on their convictions. It is our duty to defend and protect that basic right, and let no one be in doubt, we will,” President Jonathan declared.

Wishing Nigerians a happy and prosperous 2015, the President urged them to enter the new year with renewed hope, patriotism and zeal to serve their fatherland.

“As I have always maintained, none of the challenges before us is insurmountable. We must come together as a people and work with single-minded unity of purpose to overcome them.

“As we go into this New Year, I salute the indomitable and resilient spirit of our people in Nigeria and wherever they are in the world. Our spirit of enterprise and the doggedness to succeed amongst all odds has been our strength.

“Let us continue our march to the future, towards the attainment of our collective vision of a strong, united, prosperous and harmonious nation – a secure nation for us and for our coming generations,” President Jonathan urged Nigerians.

He praised the gallant officers, men and women of the Armed Forces and other security agencies who have been in the forefront of the war against terrorism and violent extremism in Nigeria.

“I want to assure you that the terrorists will not get away with their atrocities: they will not win; they will be routed,” President Jonathan assured Nigerians.

January 1, 2015
Jonathan, Buhari in titanic battle for Aso Rock

The stage is set for the February 14 presidential battle between President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Gen. Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the chances of the two candidates

Winning the February 14 presidential election is not going to be a stroll in the park for President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) or Gen. Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for that matter. But, the APC standard bearer seems to enjoying the momentum, going by the good run he and his party is enjoying in the media. This is crucial because when it comes to elections, public perception cannot be waved aside just like that; particularly in this age, with the advancement in the world of information communication technology.

The PDP, which has been at the helm of affairs at the centre for the past 16 years, had been having it so easy in previous elections, because most of the parties in the opposition were regional-based, weak and fragmented. It was clearly foreseen that with the coming of the APC, which has transformed the country into a two-party state, a competitive contest was in the offing. In fact, it is said that this was the reasoning that propelled the move to form the APC, immediately after the 2011 elections.

The ruling PDP saw it coming. But, since old habits die hard, it could not turn a new leaf overnight. In that regard, the APC has been more proactive. Internal democracy has been a major problem for most Nigerian political parties. But, the APC has demonstrated a willingness for change in this respect with the manner it conducted its recent presidential prmary, where Buhari was picked as the party’s flag bearer. The opposition party has sent a strong signal to the ruling party with its decision to conduct the primary, even though it was clear to everyone that Buhari is the best man for the job, compared to the other aspirants. In the same vein, many observers believe that, as a sitting President, Jonathan would have equally picked up the party’s presidential ticket, if the party had allowed a free and fair election to take place. The clear message is that, for the first time since 2003, the PDP is facing a genuine challenge of being defeated at the polls.

Jonathan’s tough re-election battle

Indeed, Jonathan faces a tough re-election battle. He appears to be confronted with a crisis of credibility. Analysts say he came with a lot of promise, but seems to have disappointed a lot of Nigerians who voted for him in 2011. Such Nigerians say the President has squandered the opportunity handed to him because one of his campaign messages of having no shoes as a young man moved them and they felt they could trust someone who comes from within their ranks. The underdog factor also worked in his favour when he was contesting the 2011 election, following the way the cabal in the late Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration tried to prevent him from taking over power, even though it was obvious that his principal was incapacitated.

Being an incumbent comes with the benefits and advantages of having something to showcase. It provides an opportunity to make more promises of a better tomorrow. Yet, the same incumbency factor opens the occupant of the office to a lot of criticisms about errors committed, things left undone or things that could have been done better. The perception of the public is that President Jonathan has performed below par. He would not have found himself in a situation where he would be struggling for his re-election had he delivered on key promises. The President’s team is not doing much to improve his poor public perception.

The APC has been exploiting this, by not giving him a breathing space; the party has stayed on the message all the time. The refrain of APC is that the PDP has run the country aground. It regularly cites the brazen corruption, the widespread insecurity and the worsening insurgency in the Northeast as reasons why Nigerians should vote for change.

It is not as if the mild-mannered Jonathan does not have achievements to flaunt. But, against the mountain of expectations, the general perception is that Jonathan, 56, has performed below par. In August 2012, Jonathan claimed he was the world’s most criticised president. This prompted him to vow to become the most praised before he leaves office.

With the changing political landscape in the country, which has whittled down the enormous advantages hitherto enjoyed by the ruling party, it is clear that the era of impunity is over. For instance, since 2003, the PDP was been able to win successive presidential elections easily because it had control over majority of Nigeria’s 36 states. As at the time the 2011 was conducted, the PDP was at the helm of affairs in 27 states. Today, it controls only 21 states. But, it can rely on the support of the Governor of Anambra State, which is a member of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), one of the smaller parties that regularly back the PDP. The APC, on the other hand, controls 14 states.

Buhari riding on wave of popularity

But, Buhari’s performance in 2011, where he garnered over 12.2 million votes, has shown that incumbency advantage and control of the states by a particular party is limited by local factors such as the popularity of the candidate.. For instance, in 2011, the President could not win in 12 Northern states. Nine of the 12 states are PDP states, which voted for the ruling party during the governorship election, but opted for Buhari in the presidential election. This is in spite of the fact that Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was less than four months old and was not in control of any state. Buhari as a candidate has never lost elections in states like Gombe, Kebbi, Niger, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna which are PDP-controlled states. Jonathan was however able to secure more than the 25 per cent of votes threshold in all but four Northern states. Interestingly, two of the four states were PDP-controlled.

Buhari’s major challenge in 2011 was the southern part of the country. In 2015, he can count on securing substantial votes from the Southwest, Rivers and Edo in the Southsouth and possibly Imo and Anambra in the Southeast.

Unlike the 2011 election, Jonathan is not going to enjoy the backing of voters from the four corners of the country. For instance, there are reports that members of his party in some parts of the North are afraid to openly identify with him as the party’s standard bearer in the election and are turning down offers to play a leading role in his campaign. With less than six weeks to the election, the campaign posters of the PDP flag bearer on the streets of major cities in the region, which are considered crucial for his re-election victory, are few and far between. This contrasts sharply with the situation four years ago, when promotional materials for Jonathan had sprung up in virtually all the northern states many months to the D-day.

A number of reasons have been adduced for this. A source ascribed it to the prevalent mood of the people, following the emergence of General Buhari as the APC flag bearer. Another is the fear of being labelled as anti-North. The voice of Buhari’s massive supporters appears to be drowning those of Jonathan in the zone. “The feeling here is that Buhari and the APC represent the best opportunity for power to return to the region and as such all northerners should line up behind the General and his party. Even in states where PDP is in power, the party’s chieftains are cautious about preaching Jonathan’s reelection so as not to offend the sensibilities of their people,” another source said.

Not yet uhuru for APC

But, it is not yet uhuru for the APC; the PDP equally has the wherewithal of staging a comeback. As a sitting President, the odds are stacked in his favour. This includes a huge financial resource base of N21 billion and the utilisation of governance machinery, propaganda and coercive apparatuses. No civilian president has lost a re-election bid in Nigeria’s political history. Jonathan may not be an exception.

Gen. Buhari has been described as a friend of the “masses’ and a nemesis for the elite. Indeed, the controversial N21 billion donations for Jonathan’s re-election by some of Nigeria’s moneybags suggests that the elite are not favourably inclined to a Buhari Presidency. A former military head of state, Buhari, aged 72, is widely regarded as honest and incorruptible. In fact, he remains a folk hero to many Nigerians because of his vocal opposition to corruption. But, the former Head of State has failed in three previous presidential elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011.

Beside the fear of the elite that he may likely crackdown on corruption and waste in government, his major baggage is the perception that he is a religious fundamentalist and northern irredentist. However, there is no concrete evidence to prove that these perceptions are true. Many have also raised the issue of Buhari’s age, saying he may not be able to function optimally as President of Nigeria. But, the age factor is neither here, nor their, because Buhari looks fit and rearing to go. Buahari has picked Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from the Southwest as his running mate.

The President’s chances are going to be determined by how well he is able to perform in the North and the Southwest. From all indications, Jonathan’s candidacy has lost the voters confidence in the Southwest. Nevertheless, the recent elections in Ekiti and Osun suggest that the ruling party may spring a surprise in the Southwest.

The North is undoubtedly the stronghold of Gen. Buhari. He enjoys a cult following in that part of the country, including some states governed by the PDP. Since the core North is yearning to get back to power, Buhari is likely to have a smooth ride in the Northwest and Northeast, while much of the Northcentral may be more inclined to give Jonathan a second chance. President Jonathan’s running mate, Namadi Sambo, is from Kaduna, in the Northwest.

According to some observers, the choice that would confront the electorates in the February 14 presidential election is a difficult one. One of the observers puts it this way: “The Nigerian electorate faces a dilemma between the shambolic that is known and the uncertainty that is to come.” There is a plethora of reasons why some people would feel disappointed at the turn of events regarding the Jonathan presidency; just as those seeking change by rooting for Buhari may be heading into the sphere of the unknown.

January 1, 2015