When the question arose in 2010 about a successor to President Umaru Yar’Adua who had fallen in the course of national service, I was one of many who automatically and instinctively supported the then Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan. As far as I and the group I belonged to were concerned, the constitutional position was clear and unassailable on the subject.
But, apart from the constitutional propriety, we had other more serious reasons to support Jonathan. In our view, the fact that Jonathan came from a minority southern nationality was a God-given asset in the prevailing situation of Nigeria. And his minority nationality was not just any minority nationality; it was the minority nationality which had since independence suffered the most egregiously from the Federal Government’s insensitive and roguish attitudes to the oil wealth in the Niger Delta, and which had stood in the forefront of resistance to the Federal Government’s brigandage. As a university student in the early 1960s, I had been personally acquainted with Isaac Adaka Boro; and Ken Saro Wiwa and I had trodden the academic corridors of University College Ibadan and University of Ibadan at roughly the same time and shared a little together in some activities of the students’ community. Among us therefore, there was strong generational and other kinds of loyalty for these Delta heroes, as well as for their kinsmen who had died fighting by their side, and for the millions of their people who had been, and were still being, brutally pauperized by the side-effects of the oil industry assisted by the inhuman neglect by the rulers of Nigeria.
Even more importantly, and above all else, a Jonathan presidency obviously held out, in our assessment, the strong probability that the Nigerian federation would at last be properly restructured and that Nigeria would be saved. The complex mess in which Nigeria had landed itself by 2010 had, without any doubt, been caused by those who had controlled Nigeria since independence and who had gradually destroyed the federal make-up of Nigeria and replaced it with an all-controlling federal establishment. To have a minority man from the Delta as president for some years would, we hoped, at least begin to resuscitate the federal structure of Nigeria – and thereby give Nigeria a new chance to revive, survive and go on to thrive.
It has not happened. Apparently, no matter who is president, it cannot be done. Another southern president, Obasanjo, could not do it too. President Jonathan says he wants to seek one more term, and the constitution seems to make that available to him. During the recent National Conference, some leaders at the conference confronted me with the question whether, on the basis of the Nigerian Constitution, President Jonathan could legitimately run again, and my answer was yes. My answer is still yes.
But both that question and my answer are beside the real point. The real point is whether President Jonathan should be running around about re-election now – all things considered.
If Nigeria was only shaking by 2010, it is actively ripping apart today. Rather than getting ready for the 2015 elections, significant sections of Nigeria are amassing weapons and getting ready for a civil war. Many even openly avow civil war intentions, and threaten to kill, maim and destroy if what they want is denied them. And from what is now generally known, Nigeria does not command the will or the means for stopping any Nigerian group that is seriously bent on violence and destruction. We all know that – there is no room left for self-deception any more.
In the three states of the North-east – Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, representing about one-sixth of Nigeria – Boko Haram is now no longer a mere insurrectionist rebel force; it has become, for most practical purposes, the holder of an alternative country – according to Boko Haram’s leaders, a Caliphate separate from Nigeria. Observers on the spot report that most of the important bridges linking these three states with the rest of Nigeria have been destroyed and that Boko Haram’s flags now fly over almost all the towns and villages. I am still inclined to refrain from making any derogatory statement about the Nigerian armed forces, but most observers have now learnt to watch the performances of the armed forces rather than listen to their words in this struggle with Boko Haram. Questions about who started, who is supporting, or who is using, Boko Haram have become essentially academic. Whatever source Boko Haram is getting its support from must be substantial and solid, and Nigeria does not seem to command the capability to counter that effectively.
Most serious of all, and over-arching all else, is the fact that economic forces are arising that are likely to begin to undermine Nigeria’s already fragile political strength. The main pillar of the Nigerian economy, oil, has run into trouble. Until this past June, the world price of oil still stood as high as $115 per barrel. It has now fallen to under $80 and continues to fall – with the probability that it may fall below $70 soon.
For Nigeria, some factors make these falls particularly troubling. Even if the falls come to be temporary worldwide, Nigeria may have longer lasting problems. The United States, the largest buyer of Nigeria’s oil, has almost suddenly increased its own domestic oil production in the course of the past year or so, resulting in predictions that America will begin to cut down on oil imports soon – and even soon become a net exporter of oil. Another major buyer of Nigeria’s oil, China, is now experiencing a deceleration in its economic growth, resulting in declines in its oil imports. Moreover, China has been turning more and more to Russia for its purchases of oil. And to make the situation worse, Nigeria is widely reported to be exporting less and less oil – because of greatly increased stealing of oil in the Niger Delta oil fields – through the practice known as “bunkering”. Nigeria has thus entered into a big prospect of unpredictability in its oil incomes.
And now, the time may have come for Nigeria to suffer for the folly of depending on oil predominantly and doing almost nothing about developing other resources. The quickest way to get a feel of Nigeria’s economic troubles is in the states of the Nigeria federation. Many months ago, a Nigerian Senator alarmed the country about the terrible financial conditions of the states. According to him, many states were becoming unable to pay the salaries of state employees, and many states were borrowing money to keep their services going at all. Soon after, the governors themselves, in the Governors Forum, confirmed these things. From all reports, the situation is getting out of hand right now, as state officials are having to return to their states from Abuja with less and less money than their states are entitled to.
What Nigeria needs from President Jonathan is to give Nigeria a clear picture of all these troubles. In these circumstances, his seeking re-election is a distraction. We almost certainly have reached the point at which we Nigerians must determine the future of Nigeria. Rather do it peacefully than let us stumble on into chaos and massive conflicts.
