Following All Progressives Congress’ resolve to hold its presidential primaries in October this year, ahead 2015 elections, Sam Egburonu and Sunday Oguntola report on the chances and odds facing the leading aspirants
Since August 21, 2014 when the National Executive Council (NEC) of All Progressives Congress (APC) held its first official meeting and made formal declarations on when and how the party would pick its presidential candidate for the 2015 election, the battle for the ticket has gathered momentum. Leading aspirants are already fine-tuning their strategies.
At the end of the meeting, the National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, had told newsmen that the party has resolved to hold its primaries in October and in so doing, has adopted what he described as ‘Modified Direct Primary Model.’
According to him, the primaries would be staggered and would involve elected officials of the party from across all the local government areas of the country, the 36 states of the federation and Abuja and those aspiring for governorship, national and state assemblies, and local council seats.
Since then, leading aspirants for APC’s ticket, some of who have been oiling their mechinaries descreetly, have come out in the open to prepare for the battle and to modify their approaches in line with the new realities.
So far, the major aspirants that have been identified include former military Head of State, retired Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, former civilian Vice-President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano State and the publisher of Leadership newspaper, Sam Nda-Isaiah.
Muhammadu Buhari:
General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd), one of the foremost aspirants, is not a new comer to Nigerian politics and power game. A former military Head of State, who ruled the country between December 31, 1983 to August 27, 1985, he has played active partisan politics since his retirement from the army and had contested presidential elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011.
Born December 17, 1947, Buhari, from Daura in Katsina State, first came into national prominence when he became the Federal Commissioner (Minister) of Petroleum and Natural Resources in 1976 under the then military government of General Olusegun Obasanjo.
After his retirement from the army, following the 1985 coup that eased him out of power, he served as the Chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund under the military government of the late General Sani Abacha.
His interest in the power game in Nigeria did not end with the termination of military rule as he has participated fully in partisan politics since the return to democracy in 1999.
In the 2003 Presidential Election, he flew the flag of the then All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) and lost to People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, the then President Olusegun Obasanjo.
On December 18, 2006, he emerged the consensus presidential candidate of ANPP for the 2007 election. This time, his major opponent was his fellow Katstina State indigene, Alhaji Umaru Yar ‘Adua, who flew PDP’s flag. He also lost to the PDP candidate following a very controversial election result that awarded 70 percent of the votes to PDP and 18 percent to Buhari’s ANPP.
The intrigues that followed the development, especially ANPP’s later resolve to join the government of Yar’Adua, which Buhari opposed vehemently, may have contributed to his eventual defection in March 2010 from ANPP to the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a political party he had helped to found.
So, in the 2011 Presidential Election, Buhari flew the flag of CPC in the election that PDP again won.
Today, following the historic merger that brought many progressive political parties together in the All Progressives Congress (APC), Buhari is set to contest for the ticket of the leading opposition party in the 2015 election.
The arguments for Buhari
Buhari is one of the few politicians in Nigeria today whose followers and supporters exhibit the kind of passion and deep reverence enjoyed by foremost nationalists and First Republic political leaders. Why? When he served as the military Head of State, Buhari and his equally hard-faced second- in- command, the late General Tunde Idiagbon, made history as some of the most disciplined military leaders in Nigeria. Their regime paid serious attention to indiscipline and corruption. Till date, many of his supporters say he has what it takes to stamp out corruption in Nigeria.
The odds against him
Just like his admirers love and support Buhari with passion, those who oppose his emergence as Nigeria’s president are equally passionate as they adduce several reasons why he lacks national appeal.
One of the major allegations or fears widely expressed by his opponents is the accusation that he may be unable to separate his deep religious sentiments as from his office as elected president of Nigeria. This is a major obstacle his campaign managers would need to handle carfully, given the current sentiments on the role and position of religion in Nigerian politics. Our investigation shows that even if Buhari gets his party’s ticket, his stand on religion and governance is one area he would need to work very hard on if he expects to win the presidential election.
Another major challenge Buhari may face is lack of widespread political structure. Insiders say aside the North where he enjoys considerable popularity, it is doubtful if Buhari can stand the other major contestants in the other geo- political zones for the party’s ticket. Even more important is his acceptability during the presidential election proper. The questions his opponents are asking are how acceptable is Buhari in the South-East, North Central and South-South where Jonathan comes from? In the states that make up these states, can he win the required votes for APC?
Closely linked to his image, which is also constantly attacked by corrupt, rich Nigerians afraid of his return, is his financial muscle. Given the adopted model that requires grassroots reach, the fear is that Buhari may be disadvantaged as he cannot successfully approach corrupt super rich Nigerians for financial assistant.
Atiku Abubakar:
If it is only down to experiences in electioneering, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, should effortlessly get the presidential ticket of the All Progressive Congress (APC). But experience is never enough, many political pundits will say. To fly the presidential flag of the leading opposition party will demand far much bigger credentials.
In 1993, Atiku had the first shot at the presidency. It was in the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). His opponents in the party’s presidential primary in Jos were the late Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola and Ambassador Baba Gana Kingibe. He stepped down for the late Abiola to put a stop to Kingibe’s moving train.
The Turaki, propelled by his mentor, the late Shehu Yar’Adua, had demanded for the running mate’s slot. They had banked on the vastness of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) to pull through. But Abiola settled for Kingibe who was considered more popular and acceptable in view of his endorsement by 14 state chairmen of the party.
Atiku licked his wounds and remained prepared for the slightest political opportunity. It took another five years before it came coming. This time, he opted for the governorship slot of his home state, Adamawa. He won convincingly before giving up his mandate to pick up the vice presidency slot when former President Olusegun Obasanjo offered it.
Obasanjo, insiders say, left the administration for Atiku in his first term, allowing the former Customs officer to consolidate power. When he sought reelection in 2003, he found to his chagrin that Atiku had become the new power broker. He swallowed his pride and practically begged his vice to be reelected.
But the duo fell out, leading to a gale of accusations and counter-accusations. At the end, Atiku literarily became a political leper in the administration where he once wielded the biggest influence. He fought tooth and nails, winning sensationally in courts. All charges of corruption and dereliction of duty against him in court were won with amazing ease. But his reputation suffered a serious dip. The governors, who prompted him to contest against Obasanjo before the general elections, were not there again.
When he contested the 2007 presidential election against the late President Musa Yar’Adua on the platform of the defunct Action Congress (AC), he lost heavily. He later decamped to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) where he contested the presidential primary against Dr. Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 and lost again.
The arguments for Atiku
So, in terms of electoral experience, Atiku is no pushover in the APC. Only Buhari could boast of his records. But his admirers say Atiku may in fact be ahead having won elections as a civilian governor and Vice President.
This electioneering experience is a major strength of Atiku, who has announced his intention to seek the presidency again in 2015. Pundits believe he is tested and proven. It is widely accepted that when it comes to the nitty-gritty of presidential campaigns, Atiku is not a small fry. He has garnered experiences in his last abortive four attempts, which many believe will serve him well now.
Widespread structure and national appeal
He is a strong grassroots mobiliser with national appeal. The PDM, which he inherited from the late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, has remained somehow formidable. Atiku has found an impressive knack of keeping his close associates and supporters. Many of them say under no circumstances will they ditch him for anything or anybody. They point to his ever open arms and generous hands for their unflinching support. Atiku, according to them, is a pleasant, charming personality who remains a friend in all weathers.
Under his watch, the PDM, which was just a political team, has even grown into a registered party with members across religious and tribal divides. It is today the longest-serving political structure in the country. Though leading members like Chief Tony Anenih and Dapo Sarumi have joined the PDP, the fulcrum of the structure stands still to a very large extent.
In 2011, Atiku staved off intense competitions from the likes of former military President, General Ibrahim Babangida, former National Security Adviser (NSA) and current Defence Minister, General Aliyu Gusua and Senator Bukola Saraki to emerge the Adamu Ciroma-led Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) preferred candidate. His emergence lends credence to his appeal as the northern leaders realised.
Financial muscle
Atiku is also fiercely popular and boasts of a large war-chest to prosecute a presidential race where money is expected to play a big role. His supporters believe that in terms of finances, only Atiku has the means among all the APC aspirants to match the PDP and its much-expected candidate, President Jonathan, kobo for kobo.
Since Jonathan’s campaign has been largely anchored on incentives for voters, Atiku’s supporters argue that the APC needs a money bag like him to give the PDP a run for their monies. They say he has the ability, the connections and the support of the rich in the society across the country and can therefore easily raise billions of Naira for the political battle.
Battle-readiness
The Turaki is one of the few over-prepared political office holders in Nigeria. Everyone knows he has an undying passion to rule and has articulated his programmes in several fora. To his supporters, this is an advantage that should work in his favour. They argue that it is sharp departure from the practice of having untested and unwilling national leaders.
But much more important to them is the fact that he is one of the few aspirants in the APC that could withstand whatever persecution or backlashes will be unleashed by the Presidency. Jonathan, they believe, will set state apparatus against whoever the party chooses to intimidate and shape everyone to submission.
On his part, Atiku believes his chances couldn’t have been better. A statement by his Media Office said: “Atiku’s chances have never been better, given the climate of democracy and freedom in the APC.”
The odds against him
But no aspirant is without odds and challenges. Atiku seems to have more than a fair share of them. His critics believe he cannot be trusted with the APC’s ticket going by his antecedents. Atiku left the defunct AC in 2007 after flying its presidential ticket for an unceremonious return to the PDP.
He just returned to the APC last year after spearheading the formation of the New PDP following an acrimonious national convention at the Eagles Square in Abuja. What is the guarantee that Atiku will not defect again or even trade away the APC’s presidential ticket, many of them wonder.
His multiple defections, many believe, have made him a marked man wherever he goes, especially in the APC where the leadership might be suspicious of his loyalty. For many pundits, Atiku is just in the party to get the presidential ticket, failing which he would return to his original base, the PDP.
So, can the APC leaders trust Atiku? Will they see him as a power-desperado or a faithful party member? Can they entrust the party’s structure to a man whose knacks for jumping political parties is well known?
Where is PDM?
The fact that Atiku joined the APC without the PDM also raises suspicion. It was learnt that many APC leaders are wary that Atiku’s heart is not fully in the party. They wonder why he did not bring his political structure to the party. APC’s National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu came to the alliance with five states from the South-West, including Edo while Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change(CPC) joined with Nasarawa State and some federal legislators.
To party faithful, those are the real leaders for whom credit for the solidity of APC must go. Outsiders like Atiku are just opportunists ready to prey where they did not sow, they insist. Had he been a good party leader, he should have decreed the PDM’s members and structure into his new political base. So, for them he is holding back and does not deserve the party’s presidential ticket.
Zoned out of the race?
Many also believe that the APC has already zoned Atiku out of the contest. By picking the National Chairman from the South South and the National Secretary from the North East, they said that APC has effectively blocked Atiku’s chances of emerging its presidential candidate.
The party has not confirmed this and Atiku believes there was no such zoning in place. He remains committed to his passion of ruling Nigeria. He is a cat with nine lives, a veteran presidential aspirant and an incurable optimist. It will certainly take a lot to edge him out of the race for the APC’s presidential ticket. But can he get it?
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano State is considered as another
Presidential aspirant in APC. Recently, 36 members of the Kano State House of Assembly declared him eligible to contest the presidential elections in 2015. The lawmakers said they believed he was the only person able to salvage Nigeria.
Deputy Majority Leader of the House, Yusuf Babangida, who spoke on their behalf at a press conference in Kano, said: “Nigeria is getting fragile and fragile by the day; with poor infrastructure, corruption that is becoming a tool in scooping the nation treasury, impunity, (and a) lack of correct hands at the helm of the affairs to settle (the isuues). We are gradually slipping into a serious deep-blue-sea.
“Therefore, it is our belief that Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is the leader Nigeria is yearning for; who will confront the delicate situation and solve them without any serious hitches.”
This open support was complimented by the endorsement of the governor’s ambition by the Elders’ Committee of APC in Kano State.
The committee in a communiqué signed by Ambassador Kabiru Rabi’u and Comrade Saleh Jili after a meeting said their endorsement was in consideration of present “regrettable and avoidable situation” of leadership Nigeria has found itself under the PDP.
These open declarations have confirmed long-held speculation that Kwankwaso is going for the topmost job.
When late August, Buhari and Kwankwaso held some series of close door meetings with chieftains of APC in the North-West on the choice of presidential candidate, some had speculated that Kwankwaso would step down for Buhari.
One of the meetings convened by the National Vice-Chairman of the APC in the zone, Inuwa Abdulkadir, was attended by Buhari , Governors Aliyu Magatakarda Wammako of Sokoto State, Kwankwaso and Abdulaziz Yari of Zamfara.
But sources say such meetings may not have succeeded in stopping Kwankwaso’s resolve to seek the ticket as he has commenced intense mobilisation.
The arguments for Kwankwaso
The serving governor of the highly populated Kano State is a very experienced politician who began as an active student union leader. He joined active partisan politics in the aborted Second Republic when he contested elections to the House of Representatives and became the Deputy Speaker. He belonged to the People’s Front faction of Social Democratic Party ( SDP).
Kwankwaso was first elected governor of Kano State in 1999 and served up to 2003 when he lost his reelection bid. He however got re- elected into that office in 2011 and has remained in office till today.
An astute and grassroots politician, Kwankwaso reportedly enjoys tremendous support in his Kano base notwithstanding passionate opposition from his rivals.
The odds before him
Kwankwaso’s acceptability in the south, vis-a-vis that of PDP’s expected flag bearer is the major issue APC may study carefully before handing over the ticket to the dynamic governor.
Sam Nda-Isaiah
Sam Nda-Isaiah, the author of ‘Nigeria: Full Disclosure,’ columnist and founder of Leadership Newspapers Group, is about the earliest presidential aspirant to announce his intention ahead 2015.
Although considered a new comer by many, Nda-Isaiah has been part of the progressive family for some time.
Born May 1, 1962, he was one of the people that founded The Buhari Organisation (TBO), an organisation designed to promote Buhari’s presidential ambition during the ANPP days. He was also a founding member of CPC and had remained in the fold now in APC.
Although considered youthful enough to appeal to that segment, his financial war chest and control of any formidable political structure may constitute challenges ahead.
Others aspirants on the way
Beside these four aspirants, some names, including top leaders that have not formally joined APC and the race are being mentioned. So, it is obvious that within this month of September, so much would happen at the political scene to determine who would finally fly the APC flag.
