Those who nurse the feeling that recent defection of five governors of the Peoples Democratic Party PDP to the All Progressives Congress APC is a fait accompli may have to tarry a while. Emerging signals from the political turf do not seem to give comfort that all is well with the much dramatized movement.
The way things stand, it does appear we are yet to hear the last on which side of the political divide some of the defecting governors really stand. The impression one increasingly gets is that of a people waiting for some concessions from their erstwhile party before dashing back to base.
President Jonathan gave an indication of this seeming confusion and ambivalence on the part of some of the governors in an interview in Paris, France. He had stated very emphatically that he is sure of two of the defectors whose hearts and souls are irredeemably in the APC while the other three are yet undecided.
He further said even in the case of those who have made up their minds, some of the deputy governors do not share their ideas and are unlikely to move along with them.
But these are the views of Jonathan whose party is entangled in the current pass. There is the temptation to regard these claims as some of those usual antics of politicians to shore up confidence when confronted with daunting challenges. There is therefore the lure to dismiss the claims as a desperate attempt by the PDP to save its face given the unmitigated embarrassment the defections have become.
As this was not enough cause for worry, the letter written by former President Olusegun Obasanjo to President Jonathan in which he accused him of sundry misdeeds also gave clear indications that the PDP is not comfortable with the defections and many of its key promoters are bent on doing all within their powers not only to return its defecting members to the fold, but also maintain the leading role of the party in the country. Though Obasanjo touched on a number of allegations some of them very sweeping and intemperate, the main thesis of his presentation is on the current crisis in the PDP leading to disaffection and defection of five governors among others. Obasanjo is miffed by this development which he sees as not only capable of destroying the party but the entire country. He equates the PDP to Nigeria arguing that an inability to manage the crisis in the party would spell doom for the entire country. Obasanjo’s diatribe and smear campaign is rooted in the speculated ambition of Jonathan to run for the presidency in 2015 and its touted prospects of destroying the PDP. For him, that ambition has placed the country on the precipice and unless Jonathan retraces his steps, the country is heading for the rocks.
These views do not seem to ascribe any value to the opposition APC since without PDP the country is finished. And to drive this point home, Obasanjo still believes that these disagreements could still be ‘turned to an opportunity for unity, mutual understanding and respect with the party emerging with enhanced strength and victory’. He then appealed to ‘defected, dissatisfied disgruntled and displeased PDP governors, legislators, party officials and party members to respond positively if the President seriously takes the initiative to find mutually agreeable solutions to the c u r r e n t problems’.
What these underscore is the indubitable fact that the true intentions of the defecting governors and their party members are yet to be clear. At best, they are still sitting on the fence waiting for whatever concessions that could come from the president. This is more so with the reported attendance of the PDP governors’ meeting summoned by Jonathan at the villa by the duo of Rabiu Kwankwanso and Wammako of Kano and Sokoto states respectively.
Before this article is published, Jonathan might have acceded to the demands of the governors to relieve Tukur of his position to make way for eventual reconciliation. This is a clear possibility. If this happens, he would have met a very key demand of the defectors as it would have taken care of mounting complaints of lack of internal democracy and high-handedness on the part of Tukur. The other demand of reigning in officials of the anti-graft agencies from harassing them and restoring party structures would have cued in appropriately. They will only be left with Jonathan’s second term ambition which Obasanjo has now confirmed there was no written agreement between Jonathan and anybody that he (Jonathan) will not run in 2015 but a statement of intent. Obasanjo claimed Jonathan confirmed to him in 2011 that if he adds the two years he inherited from Yar’Adua to another four years, he would have been done. He would therefore want him to keep to this promise to avoid the burden of moral overhang. But can we say in all sincerity that Jonathan has been allowed to concentrate on governance given the current distractions by the likes of Obasanjo and the challenge of Boko Haram insurgency which we have been told has its roots in opposition to his presidency? These are the issues to ponder when we consider the moral propriety of Jonathan going for another constitutional term. But then, what is all this hue and cry about Jonathan’s ambition destroying the country? Why must the inability of a section of the country to corner the presidency in 2015 culminate in its destruction? There is an indecent haste in the way and manner Jonathan is being intimidated to chicken out of the presidential race. There is also everything wrong with the impression Obasanjo sought to convey that unless power reverts to the north in 2015, hell will let loose. That has been the position coming from a section of the north. Many other states in the north are firmly behind Jonathan. Curiously Obasanjo has bought into that position and it is really very unfortunate. Given this, it is inherently ridiculous and insincere of him to accuse Jonathan of dividing the country along ethnic and religious lines. Nothing can be farther from the truth than this. Is it Jonathan that created Boko Haram that has not only expelled southerners from the north but also threatened to annihilate Christians in the north as if there are no northern Christians? What of the years of festering religious riots in that part of the country?
Those fanning embers of discord are the people who promised to make the country ungovernable for Jonathan and have since made good their threat through all manner of contrived subterfuge.
Obasanjo is guilty of falsifying extant realities and to that extent his recent letter is meant to get even having lost grip of power in the PDP. Is there anything the north kept in Aso Rock that if they do not enter there in 2015 that part of the country will no longer survive? Or put differently, are they seeking power for the north or the entire country? And if they seek power for the good of the entire country, six years thereon may not make much difference in the history of this nation to warrant the unnecessary heating up of the polity.
Even then, the possibility cannot be ruled out that Jonathan may eventually not run. But if the gang up is to intimidate him to chicken out, instead of going through due process, it may boomerang. Its outcome may end up swelling public sympathy in his favor. If eventually he opts out of the race, there is everything to suggest that the defected governors and party members may hurry back to the PDP in droves. Then, everything would have been perfect with the party. What a huge contradiction!
This will only go to reinforce the view that these defections are neither based on parity in ideological leaning nor shared values on how best to conduct the affairs of governance.
It is therefore, a political risk for the APC to trust the defectors given their current posturing. They could be moles in the new arrangement.
