The visit of four northern governors to the embattled Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, as well as the vocal advocacy by Northern elders for power to return to their region, are the clearest indications yet of how political forces will line up for the 2015 contest. YUSUF ALLI, MANAGING EDITOR, NORTHERN OPERATION explores the scenarios in the ongoing power struggle.
The surprise visit to Governor Rotimi Amaechi by four Northern governors – Kano’s Rabiu Kwankwaso, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa, Sule Lamido of Jigawa and Babangida Aliyu of Niger, was more just a solidarity visit to a colleague in trouble. The four governors are among those who have not hidden their disapproval of President Goodluck Jonathan’s schemes to seek a second term.
The involvement of this particular set of governors is the clearest demonstration yet that a new coalition and realignment of forces is emerging to pave the way for power shift to the North. The litmus test for the agitation for power shift began with the election of Amaechi as the chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum, a battle which Jonathan’s presidency lost. That humiliation is believed to be one of the factors responsible for the ongoing crisis in Rivers State.
The new coalition gunning for power shift continues to test the waters. Most pundits believe that the four Northern governors were emboldened by power brokers, who were pulling the strings to send a message to the President that the 2015 project is a risky venture not worth taking.
Out of the 19 states in the North, Jonathan could win convincingly in four or five states, including Taraba, Benue, Plateau, and Kogi, where voting population is not large. This in addition to his strategy of securing the six states in the South-South and five in the South-East.
So far, most states in the North-West ( with hyper-active political followers and high voting population) are still in the firm control of the pro-power shift group in spite of the fact that Vice-President Namadi Sambo is from the geopolitical zone.
It was the same zone where violence was more pronounced in 2011 due to anti-Jonathan sentiments and wider acceptance of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who was the candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). The recalcitrance of Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Sule Lamido of Jigawa, Aliyu Wammako of Sokoto, Saidu Dakingari of Kebbi, and Zamfara’s Abdulaziz Yari shows that Sambo has not gained control of the zone in a manner that will aid Jonathan’s aspiration in 2015.
The North-East does not fare better for the president because of the Boko Haram insurgency and the feeling of people in the zone that they have been discriminated against by the government of the day.
In peaceful times, the zone had always voted for the opposition since 1979 except in states like Gombe, Bauchi and Adamawa. But with intra-party wrangling in Adamawa State; power play by political camps in Bauchi State; the alienation of key political figures in Gombe, and the desire for a return of power to the North in 2015, it requires a miracle for Jonathan to win the North-East.
Of the six states in North-Central, it is still a split. While Niger, Nasarawa and Kwara are pro-Amaechi, the President is still enjoying the confidence of Benue, Plateau and Kogi. His readiness to reckon with kingmakers in Niger, Nasarawa and Kwara could save the day for him. The fears of the kingmakers, however, border on the fact that if Jonathan stoops to conquer, he might bare the fangs after securing the second term ticket.
The bitter experience of ex-Governor Bukola Saraki with the Nigeria Police Special Fraud Unit has been a reference warning to most governors in North-Central to watch their back on where to swing support in 2015. Saraki had covertly worked for Jonathan in 2011 against the wish of the North and he almost paid dearly for it.
A former governor of Kogi State has also been lobbying the powers that be against trial for graft whilst in office. He might enjoy a temporary reprieve as the president rallies support for 2015 but he might be worse for it after the poll.
Although Jonathan has initiated moves to infiltrate the North-West and some parts of the North-East with some deft political calculations, he might still not be able to conquer the two zones. For instance, the release of Major Hamzat al-Mustapha has been projected to be a joker to split the North-West with the backing of the Abachas. But the strategists of the President have forgotten that military politics is different from real political challenges. In spite of huge resources at his disposal to change the political tempo, al-Mustapha might not succeed in upstaging Kwankwaso, who is the governor of his adopted state in Kano, or the governor of his home state, Ibrahim Geidam of Yobe State.
The ongoing courting of Senator Ahmed Yarima (ex-Governor of Zamfara State) with the importation of marabouts and Islamic clerics to the Presidential Villa by the Senator to pray for the re-election bid of the President may also not work because the President’s men have started wielding religious card.
Recently, strategists in Aso Rock flew a kite by raking up anti-Christian campaign against the new opposition merger, All Progressives Congress (APC). Despite the fact that Yarima can deliver the Sharia-inclined Zamfara State to any political party, the religious politics being promoted by Jonathan group might end the marabout romance between Jonathan and Yarima. The Hausa-Fulani do not joke with religion.
MANIFESTATION OF PDP BITTER POLITICS /PERSONAL GROUSES
The visit of the four governors also confirmed the internal politics within the Peoples Democratic Party where the President has hijacked the party structure, rendered governors irrelevant and suppressed all members because of the 2015 project.
The governors have clearly drawn the battle line by showing that it will not be an easy ride for Jonathan in their states. Although they might not defect from PDP to another party, they can be part of the emergency coalition to stop Jonathan’s re-election bid. It is apparent that the governors may swing votes in their states for a coalition
Each of the four governors has an axe to grind and with the Rivers crisis they might go the whole hog to take their pound of flesh from Jonathan. For Lamido, this is an emotional period because of the way the state machinery was used to intimidate him following rumours that he might contest the 2015 presidential election alongside Amaechi as his Vice-Presidential candidate. The presidency did not take the rumours lightly and it put a moral hurdle before Lamido with the arrest of his beloved first son, Aminu Sule Lamido for not declaring the $40,000 on him while going to Egypt for medical treatment.
Aminu was convicted last Friday but the Jigawa governor saw the arrest and trial as a way to get at him over his presumed ambition. Since he lives with the stigma of having his son convicted, Lamido will find it hard to forgive the President while he is pretending that all is well.
A source privy to the politics of the trial, said: “Actually, it serves Lamido right because he has been talking anyhow and he wants to be President when he knows that there is no vacancy.”
It was also gathered that Lamido is unhappy with the way his godfather, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo is being maltreated by the PDP leadership. A committed party man, his eternal regrets would be leaving the PDP but as things are, he might have no choice. He has disdain for the opposition but he is perching on a tattered umbrella (PDP).
As for Kwankwaso, his demand for power shift, independent-minded politics and support for Amaechi have created a wedge between him and the Presidency. A product of Kano’s radical politics, Kwankwaso’s grouses include initial lukewarm attitude of the presidency to the insurgency which almost crippled the economy of the state; lack of internal democracy in PDP, sycophancy, breathing down on governors like school children, and playing god. He also detests the way Obasanjo is being sidelined. Yet, the presidency could not move against Kwankwaso because of the volatile nature of Kano politics.
Governor Babangida Aliyu leads the pack for a return of power to the North in 2015. He is also a frank and straightforward politician who believes the rule must not be changed midway. As the Chairman of the Northern States Governors Forum (NSGF), he opened the Pandora box that Jonathan had an agreement with PDP governors and leaders to serve a term in office. The disclosure of the secret agreement is a sin the President is hanging on his neck but he is prepared for the worst. Some forces tried to remove him as the NSGF chairman but the plot failed. He has also re-strategized to make sure the North is better for it with power in 2015.
Adamawa State Governor, Admiral Murtala Nyako, has been having a running battle with the National Chairman of PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur over attempt to take the state party structure from him. Tukur wants his son to succeed Nyako whose son is also interested in the governorship seat. Having had his position as the leader of PDP undermined by the national secretariat of the party, Nyako has been trying to be his own man moreso when the Presidency was indifferent to Tukur’s hijacking of the party structure.
Last week, Nyako said: “As far as I am concerned, there is a cordial relationship between me and the national chairman. We only have political differences and that is what the people need to know. Our position as leaders of the party is to work collectively for the interest of the citizenry and not on our personal interest.”
SERVING GOVERNORS MAY QUIT PDP?
Going by the revolt of the PDP governors, the ruling party may be decimated before 2015 poll with consequences for its victory. Already, the opposition parties have benefited from disenchantment in PDP in the last five years translating to victory in some states. More than nine governors are said to be on their way out of PDP. The reality is that Nyako, Kwankwaso, Lamido, Babangida Aliyu have their days numbered in the ruling party. Even if they refuse to leave, the hawks in the party will frustrate them. They have to be strong enough to prove that PDP needs them more than they need the party.
