The shape of things to come
A Goodluck Jonathan presidency beyond 2015 will defer a potential Igbo presidency to 2027 or, more realistically, 2039. It’s blatantly clear that President Jonathan will not handover the presidential seal to an Igbo man either in 2015 or 2019. Anyone who entertains the notion that he is thus disposed is in a delusionary state.
Rational people who place stock by reality now accept that the upcoming presidential contest will be a straight battle between the Ijaw nation, superbly and preferentially led by President Jonathan, and the North, led by no one at the moment. The authentic power broker, sitting pretty in the middle, is the West, occasionally rancorous but strategically led by Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu. Who leads the East in this political coliseum?
President Jonathan will need to sustain the broad coalition that propelled him to victory in 2011 in order to retain the presidency in 2015. This means that he must count on the seven Northern states that he carried in 2011 plus five Western states, five Eastern states to add to his six South-South states to prevail again. The margin for error is razor-thin, given the constitutional requirements. The 19 northern states gave Jonathan over 8.3 million votes or 37.1% of the total votes allocated to him in 2011 (I will return to the comprehensive figures presently).
This reality, augmented by demography and a Boko Haram-altered realpolitik, exposes President Jonathan’s electoral indebtedness in degrees. The North is first in line for his reciprocal support – a gesture that, some might argue, carries greater credibility than the intellectually feeble and anti-democratic politics of “zoning” or arbitrary power-concession. The debt he owes to the North must be repaid. And it will take precedence over all others. The only question is: which presidential election cycle – 2015 or 2019? Thereafter, both the East and the West will have a competing claim to the presidency. And no thoughtful Nigerian will bet on the East prevailing in that competition, given the customary chaos that often defines its politics. So, it could be a man or woman from the West in 2023 or 2027. It will, then, take a national wave of pity to deliver the presidency to the East in 2039 – in the unlikely event that there occurs a national awakening whereby an Igbo cause is recognised as worthy of national sympathy.
Consider a different scenario, decoupled from the People’s Democratic Party’s internal arrangements. If the proposed merger of the main opposition parties were to deliver the presidency to the North with a Vice President from the West in 2015, we might, to all intents and purposes, have a president from the West in 2023. This presents a genuinely viable prospect for 2015. CPC or its successor in title will simply need to repeat its solid performance in the twelve states it won during the 2011 presidential cycle. It will need to add Adamawa and Nasarawa states to its column – a task it could easily accomplish in the predicted conditions of 2015. A switch of support by ACN from PDP to CPC will give the alliance 20 states, excluding Edo State, which will most unlikely go against Jonathan, but including Ondo State, which will remain dependably progressive. Again, fortune will befall the West because its political leadership is smart and possesses a first class understanding of the dynamics of Nigerian politics. No sane and fair minded Nigerian will begrudge them.
The Igbo scenario is rather more complicated, abetted by the indifference of a fiercely self-reliant but disillusioned population which has grown to see all central governments as fundamentally anti-Igbo and its own leaders as merchants of self-interest. Unlike the West, where there exists a viable and confident opposition to the centre, the new conservative politics of the East is generally pro-Jonathan, with a residual sceptical and progressive elements operating at the fringes. To this extent, therefore, its path to the presidency is extremely circumscribed. The All Progressives Grand Alliance could be the vehicle that contains the essential ingredients for a cross-Niger coalition. But APGA controls only two states and is currently under the ruinous grip of its own internal contradictions. Within the PDP itself, it’s inconceivable that any candidate who stands against President Jonathan in a contest for the Igbo delegates votes will fare any better than former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the 2011 presidential primaries – unless there is a radical shift in emphasis to Igbo-specific priorities.
By the way, I respectfully disagree with those who insist that a General Babangida candidacy during the PDP presidential primaries would have fared better against President Jonathan. They’ve either ignored or underestimated the depth and poisonous quality of the anti-North conspiracy, led shamelessly and aggressively by some northerners, over the weeks and days prior to the Convention of January 13, 2011. The conspirators, particularly many northern governors, wanted something which neither Babangida nor Atiku could give to them. They also had a fear which neither Babangida nor Atiku inspired or threatened. If the animus towards Atiku by certain northern politicians was at all a factor, then, in quantitative terms, it made a difference of perhaps 10 percentage points to the outcome – and this is the most generous assumption. Jonathan would still have prevailed by a little less than the crushing 77% he scored.
Bowling for idealism and democracy
And this brings me to a personal declaration: I am entitled to speak on this matter not just because I am a bona fide citizen and a progressive Igbo man, but because I have paid my dues and earned the right to take a stand.
The PDP presidential primaries dawned only 6 months after I took oath of office as a senator representing Ebonyi Central Senatorial District, having spent the previous three and a half years in court battles to claim my mandate – a story for another occasion. I witnessed, from the front-row, how the weeks prior to the primary election exposed the disarray and total absence of a centre of gravity in Igbo politics. To quote the late Bashoroun MKO Abiola, “We are damaged!”
I have, since June 2010, been constant and consistent in defending President Jonathan’s right to contest the presidential election. Not only has our constitution conferred on him that fundamental right, but the personal sacrifice which he was called upon to make was grossly unfair and unjustified. With what explanation would he return to the Ijaw people? With what logic would he make them see the wisdom in walking away from the presidency – an office to which they may never have another opportunity to lay a claim for at least a generation? And the only lesson he could glean from history was a sobering and dissuasive one: the last man to voluntarily relinquish the top office in Nigeria ended up flirting with poverty and ultimately wound up in jail. When he was rehabilitated and restored to the presidency, he squandered a fortune stolen from public coffers in a failed bid to make himself a life president. No, President Jonathan could not walk away from that office. No honest Nigerian in similar circumstances could. It was hypocritical on the part of those who condemned him for exercising his democratic and constitutional right, regardless of whatever understanding that allegedly existed. As the Roman philosopher, Markus Cicero, wisely observed, an obligation to do the impossible is no obligation at all. I still argue for his right to contest in 2015 and every true democrat should respect his decision in that connection.
Having defended President Jonathan’s right to contest, however, I found the courage that flowed from my convictions and voted for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar during the 2011 primary election because, firstly, he was astonishingly persuasive through the force of his manifesto and the power of his argument; secondly, that was the only path to a potential Igbo presidency in 2015 or 2019. Atiku scored only 23 delegates votes to Jonathan’s 423 in the South East. Thirdly, I took the view that I was a participant in a process that ought to be defined by democratic principles; motivated by the very same principles that compelled me to defend the President’s right to contest the election. I was therefore resistant to the entrenched PDP tyranny of corralling everyone to play a minor role in the coronation of a candidate. This was not naive. Rather, I took my one step where a million steps needed to be taken. Those who failed, those who were truly naive, were those who, when called to a duty greater than service to self, failed to take their one step. Igbos must recognise that only those who dare to lose greatly can achieve greatly and that power concedes absolutely nothing without a demand.
Planning for oblivion
The prevailing attraction to readymade power testifies to a growing political culture of self-sabotage, individual greed and the absence of foresight among many in the Igbo community. It’s a clear path to political oblivion.
The West presents a sharp contrast to this attitude. When a Yoruba man had presidential power thrust on him in 1999, Yoruba people, rightly suspicious of the machinations that brought about that state of affairs, contemptuously delivered a crushing defeat to the PDP in the West, coalesced around the Action for Democracy as a deliberate measure in asserting their regional autonomy and projecting a unique vision of their proud place in Nigeria. When they were duped and almost crippled in 2003, they took the hard knock with exemplary courage, returned to the drawing board and rebounded in a most spectacular fashion in 2011. Thus, Senator Tinubu, the national leader of ACN, emerged as the most significant power broker in this nation since the era of military hegemony. But in order to lead this renaissance, Lagos State paid a particularly heavy political price. The leadership of the West remained resolute, understood the task at hand, and had a winning strategy and foresight. If the West continues in this manner, it will ultimately become the dominant force in Nigerian democratic power play for a generation to come.
A fractured north
No northern Muslim presidential candidate of any major political party can ever again count on the 19 northern states as a monolithic electoral route to power. Those days are gone. It’s now clear, thanks in equal measure to a massive shift in generational consciousness and the Boko Haram insurgency, that peripheral northern states such as Plateau, Taraba and Benue would almost always consider their positions very carefully. In between these three, Kogi and Kwara states present a required further study and the next presidential election cycle will furnish additional information to reach a more considered conclusion. (But it is instructive to note that in Kogi and Kwara states – 2 of only 4 states under northern Muslim governors won by Jonathan – Jonathan beat Buhari by 72% and 66% of the votes allocated, respectively).
The flip sides of these three states are best represented by three core northern states such as Kano, Sokoto and Zamfara. During the PDP presidential primaries, Atiku won these states handily. He defeated Jonathan by 252 votes to 60. Jonathan returned the favour in Benue, Plateau and Taraba states where he prevailed by 204 votes to Atiku’s 36. Viewed in the context that the votes from these three states alone accounted for more than 31% of the total votes cast for Atiku in an election involving 36 states and the FCT, it’s easy to appreciate how extraordinary this history in fast motion really is.
Now, make no mistake, it’s something of a miracle that Atiku scored any votes at all, given the hyper-manipulation and highwire conspiracy that attended the exercise. His performance in the three states in question is arguably a measure of the strength of the cultural and religious affinity he shares with that category of voters. His abysmal performance in states with Christian majorities speaks to the opposite conclusion. Katsina State was an aberration – the exception that proved the rule.
In the presidential election, President Jonathan won 7 northern states and General Buhari won 12. It’s a matter of little surprise that the states that lined up for Jonathan included Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Kogi and Kwara states. The cases of Adamawa and Nasarawa require a separate examination but the preliminary conclusion is that, in addition to local peculiarities, the outcomes were undoubtedly affected by duplicitous INEC.
But the broader statistics bear an even more significant revelation. Buhari accumulated some 12.2 million votes but in none of 16 southern states did he score up to 4% of the votes. The singular exception was Oyo State where he scored 11%. This means that even if the North had given him 50 million votes, he would still not have had the mandate of the Nigerian people, either constitutionally or morally. On the other hand, Jonathan was allocated nearly 3.4 million votes in the North-West, over 3.1 million in the North-Central and over 1.8 million in the North-East. The votes allocated to Jonathan in the South are breathtaking: over 6.1 million in the South-South, nearly 5 million in the South-East and 2.8 million in the South-West (Jonathan lost Osun State altogether by 37.14% to Mallam Nuhu Ribadu). And here is the ace: in the 12 northern states which Jonathan lost to Buhari, he still managed to score more than 30% in many of them except in Kano, Borno and Bauchi where he could not break above 18%. This is a powerful lesson to those claiming, rather unwisely, that the North, on itself alone, can win the presidency.
The converse is, in fact, more probable: if the South could stick together, they could realistically peel away majorities in Plateau, Taraba and Benue states. They would then rely on Kwara, Kaduna, Nasarawa and Kogi for a quarter or more of the votes to meet the constitutional requirements. Central power would then be brokered between the East, West, Middle Belt and South-South. But this is as much a fantasy as it is dangerous. It’s neither a pragmatic outlook nor is it an alliance that would retain sufficient oxygen to thrive and endure. I will leave a full examination of this point for a separate treatise.
Suffice it to say that when an Ijaw man waltzes into northern Nigeria and plays high politics to this devastating effect, then it calls for a deep reflection and a certain analytical truth in order to decipher the trend and the message, both hidden and obvious.
Regardless of whatever variables you may wish to take into consideration (including, undoubtedly, rigging, electoral corruption and a disgraceful INEC), the new science of the politics of the North is evolving, and its implications for Nigerian politics are seismic.
The triumph of Ijaw nation
Since the execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa on 10 November, 1995, the people of the Niger Delta generally, and the Ijaw nation particularly, have upped their game and have played an absolute blinder in the crucible of Nigerian politics. More than any other minority group in historical and contemporary Nigerian politics, they articulated a coherent case of injustice and exploitation that was as persuasive as it was compelling. Consequently, they have, unequivocally, emerged as the supreme advocates for minority rights. Admittedly, bullets and bombs might have aided the cause but those were, arguably, the desperate measures that arose from desperate circumstances.
Ambitious for their people, the vanguard of Ijaw nation saw their moment and seized it with excellent advocacy of group interest. The Niger Delta political movement has expanded the democratic discourse and enhanced its space in Nigeria. Their demands, be it in connection with resource control or control of the prime political office in the land, have always appeared legitimate and just. Whether their tone was strident or measured, they have had a consistent and unified message. Their plights and their aspirations were heard in foreign capitals across the globe. Occasionally, their causes were even adjudicated at the highest levels of the United States’ judicature, with unprecedented success. Their political operation was so smooth it almost legitimised the violent militant component.
No measure for measure
The Ijaw people are unrelenting. Their current sleek, forceful and cacophonous “operation 2015” has driven some senior northern politicians to distraction, some to secret endorsement of the President’s 2015 ambition from far away foreign capitals, and the Igbos to acquiescent silence. Many Nigerians have been utterly astonished by some of the public utterances coming from respected figures from northern Nigeria. In reacting to the notorious meeting in Lagos by Ijaw people to endorse President Jonathan for 2015, a senior northern politician quipped: “Who has the strength to clinch power if not the north…?” Such an outburst telegraphs precisely the sort of arrogance that infuriates the rest of greater Nigeria. Notwithstanding that this statement was made by a retired military officer, betraying the imperialistic instincts of his generation, it echoes a pattern of thought that constitutes an impediment to the North regaining the full confidence of Nigerians, south of the Niger.
Southern progressives who are rooting for the socio-political success of a new North want to see a sharp-edged leadership and a thoroughly articulated strategy to lift this benighted nation and the North with it. Aggressive rhetoric or playing the bluff and counter-bluff game will not cut muster. This Federal Republic is not going to break-up any time soon, or any time at all. Threats, belligerence, disrespectful or dismissive language or pinning for the resurrection of dead leaders merely betray the instincts we need to transcend. The old simple ways must yield to the sophisticated complexities of today. These are serious times ovulating serious issues that require serious people’s attention – and the North has produced some of the sharpest political minds in our history.
If there is any redeeming counter-argument here, however, it is to the effect that these men are to be applauded for exposing the courage of their convictions. They are preferable to the cloak-and-dagger types, operating in silhouettes, pledging unalloyed support in English to Jonathan but condemning him behind his back in Hausa. This is the dark season of the long knives. Only courageous men can play in the open.
The fortunes of the North are undergoing the severest retrenchment since the constitutional conference of 1957. Poverty and general degradation have taken a stranglehold. Politically, depending on how its main actors play the impending political innings, the North stands a realistic chance of being struck out of the park for more than a generation. Between the hammer of Boko Haram and the anvil of mounting anti-North prejudice, our brethren on the Sahelian fringe may very well crack. Such an outcome would not be a northern disaster; it would be a national catastrophe.
Politically, there is a way out and a path forward. Let the East and the North collaborate and draw up a solid national plan for peace, development and aggressive anti-corruption crusade, articulated with patriotic zeal, carrying a persuasive force and passion for a united Nigeria steeped in social justice. This, quite frankly, is the urgent prerogative of the political moment for both regions. The organising principle of such a plan must not be founded solely on the capture of power. It must be headlined and concluded with a revolutionary manifesto for Nigeria and Nigerians.
Friendship forged in blood
No tribe in Nigeria has a better, albeit incomplete, knowledge of the people of northern Nigeria than do the Igbo tribe. I have travelled extensively and lived nomadically in northern Nigeria and, to my amazement, found Igbo people in their droves in the most unlikely nooks and remotest crannies of the region. Many had become acculturated, even while retaining their fundamental Christian indoctrination. Among the Kanuris of Borno State, I found the most honourable, decent, generous, spiritually devoted and patriotic Nigerians. And this is precisely why the Boko Haram phenomenon, with its roots in this noble warrior land of the Kanem, is utterly bewildering.
The Igbos must not only raise their collective voices but must be at the forefront in condemning the atrocities of Boko Haram; but we must do so without holding the generality of northern Muslims liable for the excesses of a small criminal bunch. Igbos have, predictably, suffered immense losses. But, as the violence soars, as the casket counts escalate and a repetition of the ugly history of abandoned property looms, let us remain constant in our covenant with the Lord. This moment calls for the strength of our example. Let us respond by channelling the flow of our kin’s blood to a purpose greater than ourselves, greater than retribution and, certainly, greater than the warped aspirations of those who seek to murder us.
To those baying for vengeance, let’s recommend recourse to their Bibles. Let us not listen to those who think we ought to be governed by lust for bloody revenge, and who believe this to be a sign of strength. We must remember that nothing is so praiseworthy, nor so clearly shows a great and noble soul, as clemency and readiness to forgive. Therefore, even as they have maimed our hearts, let us heal theirs’ and keep them whole for God’s immutable justice and vengeance. He will execute His anger with great rebuke, they will reap His grapes of wrath, and they will know that He is the Lord when He shall lay the fury of His judgment upon them. It’s our duty to ensure that the New Testament does not fall silent in this time of strife.
For it has become an open season on northern Nigerian Muslims these days. An indiscriminate wave of anti-North prejudice has seized the air. To read or listen to some of the hateful slurs spewed against northern Nigerian Muslims is to witness a diminution of one’s very own humanity. It’s imperative that we confront and prevail against the nihilistic terrorist barbarians. But it’s even more important that we remain healed and whole as a nation afterwards.
The North/East political friendship was forged in pursuit of enlightened self-interest and in the crimson tide of blood. Recall the late 1950s, the First Republic and, more consequentially, the momentous events of 1978, eight short years following the end of the Civil War and not that long after the pogrom, when these patriots came together and conspired to take the helm of democratic restoration on October 1, 1979. And it is the very constituent nature of that administration that made possible the amnesty granted to Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu in 1982, to the effusive ecstasy of the Igbos at that time. Of course, legitimate criticisms of the Shagari-Ekwueme administration abound, and I take those into full account. I will not be detained by the conspiracy theory which speculates that the 1983 coup d’état was executed by northern military leaders principally to avert the possibility of an Igbo man’s ascent to the presidency on October 1, 1987.
It is time to embark on the great and purposeful task of reconstructing that friendship. The stakes are high for both sides. It’s the only alliance that has the real possibility of delivering an Igbo presidency.
The East gave President Jonathan nearly five million votes in the last presidential election or 22.23% of the 22,495,187 votes recorded for him. The votes of dispersed Igbo people are non-ascertainable. This is nearly double the effort of the West. The President might have won without carrying the West but, certainly, not without the East. Right now, Igbos have as powerful a political bargaining tool as they have had at any point since the advent of the fourth republic. It’s time to play that joker. Smartly.
Conclusion
In the broad sweep of history, 2015 would be seen as the year that defined the politics of modern Nigeria and its democracy for the next half century. Those who caution that this is not the appropriate time to discuss the politics of 2015 are being disingenuous. Yes, it is, perhaps, not the time to launch candidacies or open campaign offices, but it sure as hell is the time to engage on the potential dynamics of 2015 – not the apocalyptic year of disintegration but the year for the realisation or strengthening of democratic solidarities and the reciprocity principle.
Let us engage. East and North. If we struggled and failed, history’s verdict would be less than harsh. After all, if President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua had lived, he would right now be in the second year of the second tenure of his presidency which would probably have given way to a James Ibori presidency in 2015. That in turn would have terminated in 2023, leading to another northern presidency all the way to 2031. But the Igbo marginalisation is not, apparently, ordained by God. The fault, Ndigbo, is not in our stars….
Senator Emmanuel Onwe is the Director of Operations, National and Diaspora, Njiko Igbo dronwe67@rocketmail.com
