In South Africa and Nigeria – sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest economies – economic sentiments have turned sharply negative since 2015, according to a new Pew Research Center report.
The economies of Kenya and Nigeria are in bad shape according to seven-in-ten South Africans and Nigerians in a report by Pew Research Centre.
In the East African economic hub of Kenya, the report finds, just over half say the same, while large majorities in all three countries consider the lack of employment opportunities a very big problem.
Just over a year ago, the United Nations agreed to an ambitious agenda for bettering the lives of people around the world – the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs call for countries to improve across 17 issue areas, including economic growth, accountable institutions and reduced inequality, among others. While the target for achieving the SDGs is not until the year 2030, the publics in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa are increasingly concerned about some key development issues. At the same time, they express considerable optimism about the future.
Still, many believe the political and economic system is stacked against them. Political corruption – seen by many experts as a key stumbling block to a country’s development – is a major public concern. Broad majorities in all three countries name government corruption as a very big problem. Most South Africans, Kenyans and Nigerians believe that government is run for the benefit of only a few groups of people in society. Perhaps most troublingly, only around a third of South Africans and Kenyans say government corruption will be less of a problem in their countries when today’s children grow up. Nigerians are more optimistic that there will be less corruption in the future – 60% expect things to improve.
In the economic realm, most see rewards and opportunities going primarily to those at the top. Majorities in all three nations say the gap between rich and poor has increased over the past five years. And when asked why so many people lack jobs in their country, the top reason given is that many jobs go only to people with connections.
Despite these concerns, there is considerable optimism about the future across the three nations surveyed. At least six-in-ten in each country say health care and education – two key issue areas that are highlighted by the SDGs – will be better for the next generation. And even though their views about the current state of the economy are negative, most are upbeat about the short-term economic future: Majorities in Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya believe their countries’ economies will improve in the next 12 months. Moreover, roughly three-in-four Nigerians, Kenyans and South Africans believe that young people today who want to live a good life should stay in their countries rather than move abroad.
These are among the key findings of a new Pew Research Center survey, conducted in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya among 3,330 respondents from March 29 to July 9, 2016. Additional key findings in the report include:
South Africa: South Africans are more dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country in 2016 than they were at any time the question was asked in the past eight years. Whereas South Africans were split on their country’s direction in 2014 (47% satisfied, 49% dissatisfied), 74% now say they are unhappy with the way things are going and only 24% are satisfied. The poor state of the economy may be one driver of the souring mood in South Africa. A large majority (70%) describes the economy as bad, with 45% saying it is very bad.
Kenya: While Kenyans are generally optimistic about the future, they still say a range of development issues pose serious challenges for their country today. At the top of the list, with at least eight-in-ten Kenyans saying each is a very big problem, are government corruption (91%), economic issues such as a lack of employment opportunities (87%) and poverty (86%), and crime (82%).
Nigeria: Poverty is the top issue for Nigerians, with 93% saying it is a very big problem in their country. Energy shortages (e.g., blackouts or fuel scarcity), crime, government corruption and a lack of employment opportunities round out the top five concerns, with roughly nine-in-ten citing each as a very big problem. Over the past year, there have been food shortages in northern Nigeria and concerns about this issue have risen since our 2015 poll. Lack of public participation in politics was the only issue tested not viewed as a very big problem by a majority of Nigerians.
Models for Development: When South Africans, Nigerians and Kenyans are asked about the best example of an economically developed country, they tend to cite the U.S. and China. And when asked what makes the U.S. or China the leading model for development, many respondents note the economic opportunities and growth in the two nations. Beyond this, however, people provide very different rationales for what makes the U.S. or China the best example. Respondents who name the U.S. tend to focus on American governance, citing good leadership and low levels of corruption, as well as education, as reasons why the U.S. is economically successful. People who think China is the best example of an economically developed nation attribute this to Chinese technology, as well as the country’s manufacturing and exports and its work ethic.
Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. This report was made possible by The Pew Charitable Trusts, which received support for the survey from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The findings are for immediate release and available at http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/11/14/in-key-african-nations-widespread-discontent-with-economy-corruption
