There are concerns about the future of the Labour Party (LP), judging by its performance in the recent off season elections. Assistant Editor EMMANUEL BADEJO examines the fate of the acclaimed third force, which gained huge followership in the last general election.
The general election has been won and lost. The year started with the presidential and National Assembly elections that were held on February 25, 2023. Then, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and a former governor of Lagos State, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, won the election.
Runners-up were former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and former Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi of Labour Party (LP).
Elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, were held on the same date while state elections were held on March 18. The elected politicians were inaugurated on 29 May 2023.
Almost all the cases taken to the tribunal had been decided. But, the elections will go down in history as the most keenly contested in the country as no less than four major candidates across party lines flexed muscles at the polls.
It was the first time since 2007 that the country had more than two major candidates in a presidential election and the first time since 1983 with four major candidates in a presidential race.
The outcome compared closely with the 1979 presidential election that saw Alhaji Shehu Shagari winning with 34 per cent, Obafemi Awolowo who came close to him with 29 per cent, Nnamdi Azikiwe 16 per cent, Aminu Kano 10.28 per cent and Waziri Ibrahim coming last with 10 per cent gave an almost similar picture.
But one thing has stood out in this year’s presidential election; the emergence of a third force with the LP making a surprise inroads in less than ten months to challenge the status quo.
However, the LP failed to re-assert its footing in the various states, as it only ended up having one governor after the March elections that were held in 28 states. The party produced Governor Alex Otti of Abia State.
Also, after over 20 years of its formation, the pro-workers political organisation seemed to have made gradual inroads into mainstream politics as the party produced six Senators and 34 House of Representatives seats in the February 25 National Assembly (NASS) elections.
Compared to its phenomenal stride in the 2023 elections, the LP did not get a single seat in the 2019 National Assembly elections. Four years ago, out of the 360 seats in the House, the APC won the majority seats with over 211 members and the PDP got over 111 members. The other seats were shared amongst the smaller parties.
It is also surprising that the party’s showing during 2023 presidential and the NASS elections did not reflect in the last off-season elections held in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa States.
Even in places where it won during the presidential election, it failed woefully during the governorship election in March.
For instance, the party did well in Lagos, and for the first time since the commencement of the Fourth Republic, it defeated the ruling party, APC, and the leading opposition party, the PDP.
During the last general election, the tradition of a two-horse race for the presidency changed. The contest became a three-horse race among the three political parties – the APC, the LP and the PDP.
Indeed, Peter Obi’s entrance into the race changed the game and created the new Third Force in Nigeria’s political sphere after he successfully galvanised the support of millions of youths, especially in southern Nigeria after dumping PDP for the LP.
Obi, 61, lost the presidential election. However, he won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The party made impressive outings in Lagos and other former strongholds of the two previously dominant parties.
Though the LP has for some time been one of the parties in the Nigerian multi-party democracy, albeit as a fringe party initially called Party for Social Democrats (PSD), even though now and then it comes to the fore depending on the interest and whims of political actors, like the case of former Ondo state governor, Olusegun Mimiko, who rode on its back to power and governed on the platform between 2009 and 2017.
However, it assumed a new status when on May 30, 2022, former Anambra State governor and 2019 vice presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the party’s presidential candidate for the 2023 general elections found the party as a fertile ground to sow on.
Relatively obscure in the political arena before now, LP gained unprecedented popularity with what has been described by many as the Peter Obi phenomenon.
The milestone of LP in the 2023 elections for the red and green chambers is no doubt credited to the fame and acceptance of the flag bearer by an overwhelming youth majority known as ‘Obidients’.
In the build-up to the election, the party galvanised huge sections of the Nigerian public, particularly the youths and the working class, who seemed to have been disenchanted with the main political parties, just as it gained inroads with the support of the Christian community across the country.
Notwithstanding the traction it gained, the LP came third. Electorates in Lagos, FCT, Nassarawa, Plateau, and Cross Rivers voted massively for Peter Obi.
From the voting pattern, it was clear that most urban and forward-looking states and constituencies of the country rallied to the clarion call of the party for a New Nigeria, including Lagos, which is the country’s centre of commerce, and Abuja, as the seat of the nation, both comprising of Nigerians of all tribes and shades.
In heterogeneous megacities where the party performed spectacularly well, it witnessed non-indigenes riding to power on the wave of the Obi-Datti movement.
The likes of Hajia Ireti Kingibe displacing high-ranking members of the National Assembly, Senator Philip Aduda in the Abuja Senate race, Thaddeus Atta beating Babajide Obanikoro in Lagos and a host of many others defeated structured political parties.
But how far can the party sustain the momentum with Peter Obi in the saddle or assuming the national leadership of the party?
Judging from Obi’s antecedent of moving from one party to the other, can the old horse in the LP trust him with the leadership of the party? Days after the Supreme Court’s judgment dismissing Obi’s appeal, the former banker-turned-politician had hinted at contesting in 2027.
The former Anambra governor said Nigeria deserves dedicated and visionary leaders who will lead the country towards a brighter future. “Nigerians who supported our cause have done so out of patriotism and their sincere conviction that our nation requires and deserves dedicated and visionary leaders who will lead Nigeria toward a brighter future,” Obi said.
“The energy and dedication of Nigerian youths and the Obedient movement have been simply amazing.
“I appreciate and salute them! I want to assure them that this is not the end of our journey, but in fact, the beginning. Nigeria heard you.
“The world has taken note and will not forget so easily. We shall endure and persist until we get to our destination because a new Nigeria is our destination. A destination, not an event.
“Going forward, we in the Labour Party and the Obidient movement are now effectively in opposition.
“We are glad that the nation has heard us loud and clear. We shall now expand the confines of our message of hope to the rest of the country.
“We shall meet the people in the places where they feel pain and answer their needs for hope.
“At marketplaces, motor parks, town halls, board rooms, and university and college campuses, we all carry and deliver the message of a new Nigeria. As stakeholders and elected Labour Party officials, we shall remain loyal to our manifesto.
“We will continue to canvas for good governance and focus on issues that promote national interest, unity, and cohesion.
“We will continue to give primacy to our constitution, the rule of law, and the protection of ordered liberties.
“We will offer the checks and balances required in a functional democracy and vie robustly in forthcoming elections to elect those who share our vision of a new Nigeria.
“Given our present national circumstances, there is a compelling need for a strong political opposition.
“We shall, therefore, remain in opposition, especially because of the policies and the governance modalities that we in the Labour Party campaigned for, especially reducing the cost of governance, moving the nation from consumption to production, reducing inflation, ending insecurity, promoting the rule of law, guaranteeing the responsibility to protect, and stabilizing the Nigerian currency; are not the priorities of the present administration nor is it interested in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).”
Obi’s statement sounds welcoming, but he seems to have forgotten that four years is a very long time in the ever-dynamic politics in Nigeria.
As it stands, there is a possibility for both the governor and some legislators either at the national or state level to defect to another party before the next election cycle.
But some analysts have said Obi’s traction soared on ethnicity and religion, adding that a house built on those legs will not stand.
They wonder how the Obidient without grassroot supporters, representatives, and political structure sustain the momentum in the next four years.
Visible cracks are already showing within the hierarchy of the party.
Last month, the media was awash with news of National Assembly leaderships plans to procure 109 Toyota Land Cruisers for senators and 2023 Toyota Prado for 360 members of the House of Representatives.
Reacting, the party’s National Chairman, Julius Abure, who condemned the N160m official vehicle being awarded to each of the 360 members of the House of Representatives, urged his party lawmakers to reject the gifts.
Abure said, “We are calling on Labour Party legislators in the 10th Assembly to kick against this unnecessary wastage of resources in line with the ideology of the party which is social justice and equal opportunity for all. Nigerians will hold them responsible if they fail to live above board or give proper account of the electoral investment reposed in them. The poor must be allowed to breathe again in this country.
However, in response to the party chairman’s advice, some LP lawmakers expressed their intent to accept the official vehicles, emphasising their importance in carrying out legislative duties.
According to an LP lawmaker, the vehicles were necessary work tools for lawmakers.
The source said state-level politicians receive more benefits than federal lawmakers, making the official vehicles essential.
“The SUVs are meant to aid our jobs as lawmakers, particularly as it relates to our oversight functions. Yes, he can say that the economy is struggling but having one official vehicle as federal lawmakers isn’t frivolous; it’s a necessity,” he said.
Another LP legislator, who commended President Bola Tinubu for approving the official vehicles, noted that the SUVs would be used to benefit constituents and facilitate visits to constituents in challenging areas.
“National Assembly members should pray for the president and give him three ‘Gbosas’ for his magnanimity to the lawmakers.
“Nobody in the National Assembly is against the SUV, when the SUV comes, we will collect it and use it to bring more benefits to our constituencies; because in the real sense, it is for the constituents,” the lawmaker said.
Also, there have been cases of internal plots and intra-party power struggles, one of the most exceptional cases being the alleged collapsing of the entire LP structure in the Southwest into the APC.
While other factions in the region and the national body went on to denounce and dissociate itself from the group, the party did not make any significant headway in the South West.
The Lamidi Apapa faction of the party has said that Obi should seek another political platform to pursue his presidential ambition ahead of the 2027 polls.
Abayomi Arabambi, the faction’s spokesman, in an interview with a national newspaper, urged Obi to look for another political party to actualize his presidential ambition in 2027.
“My advice is for him (Obi) to go and start preparing for 2027. But it has to be in another party, not in LP. We are not going to allow this kind of rascality to continue in 2027. We will look for a fresh candidate as far as we are concerned.
“Obi is free to go back to APGA to run, not the Labour Party. We don’t want to continue accommodating a character who believes no other person, other than himself, has anything upstairs. He is not a good manager of human resources. That was why he lost woefully.”
Recently, the Rivers State chapter of the party defied an order from the national headquarters to adopt the PDP governorship candidate in the state. The same scenario is playing out in most states in the south without the knowledge of the leadership of the party at the national level- a situation observers believe will affect the party’s chances in the March 18 polls.
While it is also not certain that Peter Obi, who has oscillated between APGA, PDP and now the LP would remain with his latest party till the 2027 general election, he is no doubt the new messiah of the downtrodden masses with the Labour Party’s Papa, Mama and Picking agenda.
But if the word of the party’s Vice Presidential candidate, Datti Baba Ahmed is anything to go by, then 2027 may meet the Labour Party under the firm grip of Peter Obi and Datti Baba Ahmed.
Besides, many believe that Obi is not a party man, especially within the LP where it’s often alleged that he continues to show indifference to the internal crisis in the party.
