Zoning is tearing apart the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the Southeast and Southsouth states, ahead of the 2015 general elections, reports Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI.
A pall of uncertainty is hang-ing over the 2015 governor-ship election in Cross River State. Deputy Governor Effiok Cobham is kicking against the decision of his boss, Governor Liyel Imoke, to seek a successor from the Senatorial District in line with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) zoning arrangement. Political leaders from the district led by Cobham, have disagreed with the governor over his insistence to honour the zoning agreement. Donald Duke, who emerged governor after very stiff competition in 1999 and served for two term, is from the South District, while his successor, Imoke, is from the Central Zone. Thus, the North District has not produced a governor since the creation of the state. Imoke and the leadership of the PDP have publicly declared that the next governor would come from that part of the state. Cobham, who has been perceived as a very loyal deputy until now, surprised many when he moved against the governor.
Similarly, Amaechi Udemba, an Asaba-based public affairs analyst believes that the recent resignation of Goddey Orubebe from President Goodluck Jonathan’s cabinet and his subsequent entry into the governorship race in Delta State, as well as the entry of Kenneth Gbagi into the race, is a signal that there is a serious plot in high places to set aside the zoning deal. Orubebe and Gbagi are from Delta South and Delta Central Districts, which have produced governors before.
In spite of its posture in the region, this state of affairs has put the PDP in a tight corner. In Cross River, despite the party’s decision to zone the governorship ticket to the North District, a political ally of Imoke, Chief Gershom Bassey, from the Southern District has joined the race to succeed him in 2015. Although Bassey is yet to formally declare his ambition, his campaign stickers are visible on cars and vehicles of his supporters in Calabar and beyond. His ambition, which is already causing ripples, is seen as a deliberate plan to scuttle the zoning agreement.
Bassey was recently reported to have told Imoke that he would seek the nomination of the PDP as the candidate for governor ship. His insistence, it is said, is based on an agreement the trio of Bassey, Duke and Imoke had in 1999 that each of them would be governor of the state for eight years consecutively. His friend and kinsman, Duke, had the first shot, from 1999-2007; while Imoke, who mounted the saddle in 2007, would complete his tenure in 2015, to pave the way for Bassey to govern the state between 2015 and 2023. As observers of Cross River politics put it, the haples people of the North District may have technically lost the battle because the ‘three wise men’ of Cross River State agreed that they would lead the state for 24 years, so Bassey is not morally wrong to seek to run for governorship of the state. Based on the so-called agreement, such observers believe the leadership of the party may be in tandem with the trio and has merely sold a dummy to the north by appearing to support them openly, whereas Bassey is their real choice.
Cross River and Delta are not the only states in the Southsouth and Southeast where the zoning formula is being threatened. The insistence on zoning is causing ripples in states in the two geo-political zones. In Enugu, for instance, Governor Sullivan Chime has told everyone who cared to listen that it is the turn of the Nsukka zone to produce the governor in 2015. But this has not discouraged, Ike Ekwere-madu, the Deputy Senate President, from aspiring for the plum job. Ekweremadu is from Enugu West Zone, like incumbent Governor Chime.
The scenario in Akwa Ibom is not different. Ahead of 2015, when the incumbent governor, Chief Godswill Akpabio, would complete his second and final statutory term, a debate has broken out over where the governorship pendulum would swing; with a growing number of people now clamouring for an open contest. There are two schools of thought on the question of the next occupant of the Uyo Hill Top Mansion. Some politicians and opinion leaders are canvassing that it is the turn of Eket district to produce the next governor based on the zoning formula. The former past governor of the state, Obong Victor Attah, from Uyo District, was in power for eight years. His successor, Chief Godswill Akpabio, from Ikot Ekpene District is doing his second term of eight years. The people of Eket senatorial district expect to have one of their own on the governor seat in 2015.
Yet; there are those who argue that no arrangement like that exists in the state, hence, aspirants from any of the two senatorial districts could vie for the job. Akpabio has not helped matters. He has been accused of exacerbating tension in the state, with his seeming doublespeak on the zoning issue. At one time, he had openly declared that he was not opposed to zoning. But, he later said that he was not a product of zoning and therefore the issue is in God’s hand
In River State, the emphasis is on the dichotomy between the upland and the riverine people. Indications are that both the PDP and the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), who are currently engaged in a battle of dominance, would try to outwit each other as far as zoning is concerned. The state is made up predominantly of Riverine Ijaws (Kalabari’s, Okrikans, Ibani’s, Andoni’s, etc) and the Upland (Ikwerre’s, Ogoni’s, Ekpeye, Etche, Oyigbo, Ogba’s etc). Since the old Rivers State was created on May 27, 1967, from the defunct Eastern Region and further balkanized into Bayelsa and new Rivers State, in 1996, harmony, brotherhood and cooperation have been sustained through the application and observation of the upland/riverine dichotomy principle in the allocation of socio-political and economic gains accruing to the state.
In 1999, when the West District was to produce the governor, the Kalabari, though the largest homogenous ethnic group in the zone, conceded the position to a politician from the upland, (Dr. Peter Odili), for the sake of equity and fairness, considering that the last occupant of the Brick House, Chief Ada George, was from the riverine area. That was in spite of the fact that his tenure lasted less than two years. The upland Rivers East Zone was also given another chance in 2007, when Sir Celestine Omehia and Governor Chibuike Amaechi, from Ikwerre, took over the mantle of leadership. The general feeling today is that it is the turn of the riverine people.
But, contrary to the zoning arrangement, the Ogonis who are predominantly located in the upland region are agitating for the governorship mantle in 2015. The Etches and the Ikwerres are not left out in the quest. Thus, the argument for and against zoning is currently raging in Rivers. It is generally accepted that in a multi-ethnic setting like Rivers State, it is legitimate for various groups to be given a chance to rule. But, for other reasons, some groups are now saying that it is retrogressive to choose leaders solely based on ethnicity. “What we need is not a governor from a particular ethnic bloc, but one (wherever he may come from) that would guarantee us infrastructural development, socio-economic prosperity, political stability, youth empowerment and job security,” one of such observers said.
Similar arguments have reverberated in other states facing the zoning challenge. For instance, Udemba said that, for the sake of equity it is only natural to allow the Delta North that had stood aloof for 16 years to take its own turn. He argues: “If we search deeper, it can be confirmed that sometimes in 2006 political groups, including the G.3 and the Delta South Elders Forum had championed the need for power to shift to the Delta South in line with the zoning policy. The G.3, which comprises the lsoko, Ijaw and ltsekiri politicians of the South, had hinged its clamour for power shift on PDP zoning policy.” Against this background, he is wondering why some persons are now reversing the argument because zoning does not favour them this time around.
Delta Central has produced two governors, – Olorogun Felix Ibru and Chief James Onanefe Ibori – who ruled for three and eight years respectively. Delta South produced Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan, whose eight-year tenure of two terms would elapse in 2015. That leaves Delta North as the only zone that has not produced a governor since the state was created in August 1991. But, in a move, which may signal a stiff opposition to power shift, some chieftains of the PDP are working towards scuttling the zoning arrangement.
Following the development in Akwa Ibom State, the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) recently cautioned politicians in the state against going against the zoning arrangement. The Coordinator of HURIWA, Comrade Emmanuel Onwubiko, said after touring the state, his group is convinced that there are danger signals concerning the zoning arrangement in Akwa Ibom, which, if not addressed, may lead to crisis. “We are convinced beyond the shadow of doubts that there are ominous signs that some aggrieved politicians within the ruling PDP, who have lost out of the scheme of governance in Akwa Ibom State are gearing for a fight and may precipitate a conflagration of bloody dimension as run up to the 2015 elections begins in Akwa Ibom State,” he said.
On the other hand, Jalingo Agba, a civil rights activist, disagrees with Udemba and Onwubiko. Agba, feels that the exercise is a distraction. He said pundits have argued that the North District should produce the next governor of Cross River because it is the only district yet to do that, since the splitting of Akwa Ibom State from Cross River State in 1987. He added: “They have cited some constitutional provisions on rotation of power and federal character. But my view is that a governor can come from any part of the state. If the person is able to clearly demonstrate his capacity to empower the youth to create wealth and help themselves, the last thing I will ask of is where he/she comes from.” He argues further: “But as 2015 draws closer, we must make haste to shift the argument from which part of the state the governor should come from to looking for someone who can really present to us a blue print on how to translate our potentials to prosperity because our state is in dire need of that person who must be an expert in public debt management because the state is the third most-indebted in the country.”
