Tag: markets

  • Emerging markets countries to raise $614b in 2014

    Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services projects that the 17 emerging market sovereigns included in the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index will borrow an equivalent of $614 billion from long-term commercial sources in the year. This would be a 0.3 per cent increase in long-term commercial debt issuance compared with 2013.

    Some 54 per cent or $329 billion of the sovereigns’ gross borrowing will be to refinance maturing long-term debt, resulting in an estimated net borrowing requirement of $285 billion.

    Standard & Poor’s projected that the commercial debt stock of the major emerging markets will reach an equivalent of $2.8 trillion by the end of 2014, and that the total commercial and concessional debt stock will reach $3.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of $176 billion. Theis year’s debt outlook estimated that outstanding short-term commercial debt will reach $191 billion at year-end.

    According to the report, more than two-thirds of commercial sovereign debt to be issued in 2014 will be by sovereigns with a foreign currency rating in the ‘BBB’ category, with a further one-fifth by ‘BB’ rated sovereigns.

    S & P noted that Hungary and Croatia will face the highest debt rollover ratios-including short-term debt, which will reach 20 per cent and 16 per cent of GDP, respectively.

    “Brazil is by far the largest emerging markets sovereign issuer in the sample with long-term gross commercial borrowing in 2014 accounting for an estimated 44 per cent of total of JP Morgan EMBI+ constituents.

    “We expect Brazil’s gross commercial borrowing to slightly decline compared to 2013, both in absolute terms, as well as measured as a share of the sample total from 46 per cent in 2013. We forecast Turkey and Mexico to borrow comparable amounts equivalent to $83 billion and $71 billion, respectively, together accounting for a quarter of the group of countries covered in this report. We estimate the remaining 14 sovereigns combined will borrow some $186 billion around two-thirds of Brazil’s total.

    Within that group, the five issuers with the smallest expected commercial borrowing-Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Ukraine, and Croatia, will account for less than $15 billion or 2.4 per cent of the total. Overall, issuers in Latin America will account for 65 per cent of 2014 issuance, Asian sovereigns for just five per cent, with the rest being in EMEA,” S & P stated.

    The report pointed out that the distribution of the commercial debt stock is a little less skewed. While Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico will account for 70 per cent of commercial gross sovereign borrowing, their share in the stock is only 56 per cent.

    According to the report, at 19 per cent of the 2013 debt stock, there is possibility of a higher roll-over rate including short-term debt in 2014 for the three largest emerging market issuers in the sample, compared to 14 per cent for all other sovereigns covered in the sample.

  • More modern markets emerge

    More modern markets emerge

    Shopping malls have come to stay in the country. More malls are daily springing up across the major cities and towns of the country.  Anambra State’s commercial cities of Onitsha, Nnewi and Awka are hosting new shopping malls,  TONIA ‘DIYAN and Odogwu Emeka Odogwu report.  

    The past few years have seen the rise of modern shopping malls in Nigeria with Shoprite setting the pace. It is just a natural progression from what has always been a way of life for an average Nigerian who is known to be a great spender.

    Since the first shopping mall, The Palms,Lekki-Lagos landed in the country in 2005, the number of shopping malls have continuously been on the increase. Cities, such as  Ibadan, Ilorin, Abuja, Enugu and now Onitsha, Nnewi and Akwa can boast of modern shopping facilities that have brought  tremendous transformation in the way people now shop.

    The potential buying power of Nigerians has been recognised by the outside world. Foreign firms have now realised that there is a lot of wealth in the country and had seen the neccessity to build modern  markets, despite the existence of challenges such as dearth of infrastructure and access to land. According to experts, the availability of suitable land for siting shopping mall continues to be a challenge as the appropriate location remained an issue.

    Former Chief Executive Officer, Broll Nigeria, Erejuwa Gbadebo, said the financial institutions must support projects such as shopping malls with finance.

    According to her, shopping mall projects create jobs and leads to the rejuvenation of the micro economy around places where they are sited.

    The new shopping malls

    Global leader in retailing business, Shoprite is set to open more retail malls in major cities in Anambra State. It will start from Onitsha, then move to Awka and Nnewi.

    While that of Onitsha has attained 75 per cent completion, that of Awka and Nnewi are at various stages of completion. The Awka mall is located at the site of the old Ikenga Hotel in Awka, the state capital.

    Governor Peter Obi is happy about the projects. This is because the malls will provide alternative shopping avenues for expatriates and other prominent Nigerians that will lodge in the three international hotels and resorts as well as the convention centres he is building in the three cities.

    At the moment, Shoprite is the favourite and would be charged with the responsibility of supervising other tenants but other big names in shopping mall business have also indicated interest in opening branches in Onitsha, Nnewi and Awka especially now that Obi has provided a level playing field for all players.

    The Onitsha Mall is located at the side of the Onitsha Hotel and Convention Centre. It is situated on a vast land that boasts enough space for the level of commercial activities the mall will expectedly host.

    The governor promised to provide facilities to boost activities in the area, including dualisation of Park Road, the access road to the complex which he has done.

    From the foundation laying structures on ground, it is clear that the shopping malls are big and ultra-modern. The state is constructing the malls in partnership with African Capital Alliance under Private-Public Partnership (PPP).

    Obi said it is in line with his commitment to the transformation of Anambra State, which, according to him, included returning Onitsha to its past glory as the number one commercial city in Nigeria that wil host the biggest market in West Africa.

    Financing the projects

    The Attorney-General of the State, Peter Afuba said Governor Obi has put in a lot on the project, to be financed jointly by African Capital Alliance and Anambra State Government through Private Public Partnership (PPP).  He explained that after the construction, Shoprite would serve as anchor for tenants.

    A Senior Manager with African Capital Alliance, Mr Osita Okonkwo said the project would cost over $30 million, with 15,000 sq. meter of shopping and retail spaces.  He said the money was coming from  international financial institution as foreign direct investment (FDI) and that it was not possible to  attract such money to Anambra State before Governor Obi.

    He added that it is now possible for the state to attract FDI now  because of the enthronement of stability and good governance which have been made possible by the governor.

    He recalled how Obi visited Shelter Afrique in Kenya, when he was and how he showed passion for the growth and development of the state.

    Obi said:  ”Many big organisations wanted to hold their Annual General Meetings (AGMs) in Awka. They want to hold it in Onitsha, the largest and biggest market in Africa or Nnewi, the Japan of Africa but were deterred by the absence of befitting hotels and convention centres. Now, history is being made as we put these facilities in place.”

    Also, on the finance to complete the shopping malls as the tenure of his administration is about to lapse, he said the government had saved enough money to see the projects through to completion.

    Obi said: “We have conceived them (the projects) since and saved enough money to see them through. Just watch and see what will happen. Not just these two, we are starting the Governor’s Lodge, legislative and judiciary buildings in few days. We have the resources to execute them. We have the resources to aggressively execute and complete the many projects, including road projects we are working on.

    “It is my belief that a governor should work for his people unceasingly.  Many people wonder why I keep working and flagging-off projects even when I am supposed to be winding up, but I believe a governor should work for his people in season and out of season.  I shall continue to work till I handover, especially to make things easier for my successor.”

    Already, the state government will expand parts of Awka road, and further widen the access road to Onitsha International Shopping Mall in addition to the ongoing dualisation of the Park Road, GRA.

    There would be an Amusement Park built in the area in line with on-going upgrading of infrastructure in Onitsha and environs.

    Shoprite plans

    A representative of the Shoprite Group, Mr Gerald Frits, said when functional, the mall will reduce the cost of goods as they would be working with local farmers in the state. Mr. Frits said the facility would also provide a lot of employment opportunities and commended the vision of Governor Obi in attracting high class investments to the state.

    Obi warned contractors working on projects in the state, especially on the shopping malls, to sit up and face their jobs squarely or face severe sanctions.

    ”My government does not owe any contractor. We have enough money for our projects and only demand from contractors to be fast, with assurances that any certificate generated would be paid for. But for those who are not serious for reasons only themselves know, we will not hesitate to revoke their contracts,”Obi said.

    These three shopping malls will add a difference to the lives of the super rich and middle class who once in a while travel out of the state to do their shopping as well as visitors to the state.

  • Hopes, uncertainties’ll blow the sail off markets

    Capital Market Editor, Taofik Salako, speaks to leading analysts and investment pundits on possible interplays in the financial markets in the days ahead

    Despite a large current account surplus fuelled by the elevated oil price in recent years, the Nigerian authorities have been unable to accumulate any oil savings over the period. This paradox appears to reflect a combination of alleged oil revenue leakages, capital flight and a loose federally consolidated fiscal stance.

    Granted such imbalances were offset by sizeable portfolio flows into the fixed income and equity markets between 2012 and early 2013, but now that those have turned negative, the intrinsic distortions facing the Nigerian economy will come to the fore.

    The challenge for the next Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor will be to preserve macroeconomic stability amid alleged oil revenue leakages and the virtual absence of fiscal savings, but also a less favourable external environment as the US Fed continues to unwind its quantitative easing (QE) programme and foreign investors reduce their exposure to Nigeria.

    In this context, we suspect the policy dilemma will not really change for the top leadership of the apex bank: only a sharp tightening in monetary conditions can reverse or at least slow the slide in foreign (FX) reserves and prevent a further weakening of the currency. And while calls for letting the Naira find “its fair value” are gaining momentum, those advocating this approach will eventually realise that the concept of currency overvaluation is almost irrelevant in an economy where oil accounts for 95 per cent of exports, but which is struggling to accrue any oil savings.

    Even if the exchange rate was moved to 200 or 250, the same upward pressure on Dollar/Naira will still re-emerge at those levels as long as the above mentioned fiscal and oil-revenue distortions are not addressed.

    Either way, the risks to market yields are to the upside unless there is a concerted push to lower policy rates in the meantime which would trigger a period of pronounced foreign exchange weakness and still subsequently force the CBN to tighten monetary policy afterwards. Meanwhile, the equity market is ironically likely to be more sensitive to the fortunes of the NGN rather than stock valuations for the time being.

    Head, Research & Intelligence, BGL Plc, Femi Ademola (Lagos)

    The development at the Central Bank of Nigeria is a surprise and has therefore shocked the markets. Therefore the immediate impact on the financial markets is likely to be sharp and severe. There may be a risk of capital flight to the detriment of the exchange market while sell down pressure on equity and fixed income instruments could persist for some time as the markets grapple with uncertainties. However, the quick move to announce an eventual successor to Mallam Sanusi may calm the uncertainties.

    Foreign Exchange

    Market

    By this development, the uncertainty of investments in Nigeria is further heightened which may imply that the commitment of the CBN to protect the Naira exchange rate may be significantly threatened. Hence, an average foreign investor’s sentiment enters a flight mode. Within the hour following the announcement of the governor’s suspension, the Naira depreciated precipitously to N169/$ at the interbank market from N163.7/$ it closed the previous trading day. The Nigerian interbank foreign exchange market was reported suspended for the day following the volume of demand that hit the market in the following hours. Significant pressure is likely to mount up at the Bureau de Change (BDC) end of the market.

    The global foreign exchange market cannot be suspended and the constraining approach to managing the potential hemorrhaging of the Naira could only spell further doom for the currency because as investors find it hard to convert from the currency they get more panicked and the pressure is sustained longer than necessary. This could eventually result in the forced official depreciation of the exchange rate in the short to medium term to N160/$- N165/$ range. To stem this tide, the interim leadership of the CBN would have to immediately deploy intervention measures into all segments of the market and supply the US Dollar in abundance which would come at costs of significant further erosion of the reserves.

    The Money and Bond

    Market

    Indications are that the FGN bond market was immediately short down following the announcement to avoid disruptive sell offs in the market. Again, as investors move into flight mode on the back of the increased uncertainty on the Nigerian economy and the fortune of the Naira exchange rate as highlighted above, the sell offs are inevitable. In this regard, we are likely to see a total upward shift in the Nigerian yield curve- increases in yields across all maturities. It is also not unlikely for the yield curve to develop a hump with yield at the short end of the market rising disproportionately to the longer end of the yield curve.

    This trend may, however, not be sustained for long as higher yield become attractive to domestic large portfolio investors especially the pension funds who would find reprieve in the bond market. In this regard, the supply- demand dynamics that this situation may create for the fixed income market may see yields and short term rates rise to between 14 per cent-16 per cent on the average in the short term.

    The stock market

    With 51.8 per cent foreign transaction content in the Nigerian stock market, this announcement could be damaging for the equities market. As a leading indicator of economic sentiments, the uncertainty that this development implies is likely to support the bearish trend in the short term as portfolio investors rush to exit. The market which has sustained significant bearish performance since the beginning of the year turned round last week from a two-week long downward spiral that was signaled by the monetary policy action of increased cash reserve ratio of public sector deposits in banks, at a time the US tapering of quantitative easing was already impacting the market.

    Appointment of a

    successor is apt

    Thankfully, the Federal Government has moved swiftly to propose Mr. Godwin Emefiele as the successor to the suspended CBN Governor. Emefiele is an economic and finance professional with strong experience in banking and academics. His calm demeanour soothes well for the role of an economic manager and bank regulator. Although, it is not clear yet what his policy focus would be if his appointment is confirmed by the Senate, his management style at Zenith Bank suggests that he makes decisions carefully to prevent unnecessary uncertainties and disruptions; something Nigeria needs at this time.

     

  • Prices of agric commodities fall in markets

    The prices of some prices of agricultural commodities at major Nigerian markets decreased for the week ended Feb. 22, the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports.

    The price of a 100kg bag of drum beans, popularly called “Olotu”, decreased by N500 at the Mile 12 market in Lagos State, the weekly market commodity prices report by Novus Agro Nigeria, said on Friday in Lagos.

    It said Drum beans which sold for N22,000 for the week under review was sold at N22,500 for a 100 kilograms (kg) last week.

    The paint bucket measurement, however, was sold for N800 as against N767, while per kilogramme measurement was sold at N211.

    At Igbudu Market in Delta State and Dawanau Market, Kano State, 100kg of Olotu was sold for N28,000 and N13,300 respectively.

    A 60kg white Garri bag was sold for N9,000 and N400 per paint bucket at the Mile 12 market, Lagos remained stable.

    In Dawanau market, Kano State, 60kg of white garri was sold to N6,317 last week, but now sells for N6,150, having a difference of N167.

    A measure of 100kg of maize (white) sold for N6,500 this week was sold for N6,667 last week at the Mile 12 market, while a paint bucket sold for N300 remains constant.

    Groundnut (edible) remained stable at N19,500 per 100kg bag and N750 for a paint bucket measurement at the market.

    A 50kg bag of imported rice which was N10,000 remained the same as last week, while a paint bucket sells for N800.

    A 100kg bag of soya beans sold at the Mile 12 market in Lagos and Relief Market in Anambra State remain the same at N10,000 and N15,000 respectively.

    Red Sorghum was sold at N9,000 per 100kg bag and N450 per paint bucket at the Mile 12 market in Lagos and N5,600 per 100kg at Dawanau market in Kano State.

    Onion (violet) 100kg was sold for N11,167 whereas, it was sold at N12,000, recording a decrease of N833 and the 2kg went for N400 in Lagos.

    Also in Lagos, palm oil sold at N6,650 for 25 litres, while a bottle sold for N230, remained stable.

  • Oyo to build eight markets

    Oyo State Governor Abiola Ajimobi has said his administration would build eight more markets before the end of the year.

    He spoke during an interaction with reporters in Ibadan.

    The governor said his administration has built more markets than previous administrations. He stressed that he would address the challenges facing the indigenes.

     

     

     

  • Nigeria, Ghana emerging markets top global equities returns

    Nigeria, Ghana emerging markets top global equities returns

    Emerging markets dominated the global equities returns chart for the first half with Nigeria, Ghana, Venezuela and Pakistan posting some of the biggest returns during the six-month period.

    Global stock market indices showed a healthy recovery across the markets in the first half. Emerging markets showed higher returns in double-digits compared with single-digit return by advanced markets of America and Europe.

    Nigerian stock market recorded a six-month average return of about 28.8 per cent, indicating approximately N2.45 trillion in capital gains during the period. In value terms, the increase of N2.45 trillion in the first half has already surpassed total gains of N2.44 trillion recorded for the entire 2012. However, the real benchmark return of 28.80 per cent is some 6.65 percentage points below the average full-year return of 35.45 per cent recorded in 2012.

    A comparative review of major advanced and emerging markets showed that Ghana recorded the highest return in Africa with the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) All Share Index (ASI) opening the last trading day of the first half with a return of 57.3 per cent. South Africa’s stock market was almost flat. The ASI of JSE Stock Exchange of South Africa indicated a marginal return of 0.8 per cent, according to data tracked by the Wall Street Journal. Egypt’s stock market reflected the challenged political transition in the country with its CASE 30 Index posting a negative return of 14.2 per cent.

    Venezuela recorded an exceptional three-digit return of 144 per cent, as measured by the Caracas General. Japan’s Nikkei 30 followed with a return of 32.6 per cent while Pakistan’s KSE 100 recorded a yield of 24.3 per cent.

    The Global Dow Index and DJ Global Index, two key indices that measure global market performance, closed the first half with returns of 5.7 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively.

    In Europe, Stoxx Europe 600 indicated average return of 1.9 per cent, reflecting the troubles with some struggling European economies. The London stock market showed brighter prospects than average European return. The FTSE 250 and FTSE 100, two broad measures of the United Kingdom market, recorded average returns of 11.5 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively. Germany’s DAX indicated a return of 4.6 per cent while France’s CAC 40 returned 2.7 per cent over the period.

    Meanwhile, Russia posted one of the worst returns during the period with the RTS Index indicating a return of -16.5 per cent.

    Global equity recovery was driven by economic data indicating improvements in manufacturing, employment and retail positions in the USA amidst other positive global economic reports.

    The stock market performance was boosted significantly by inflows of foreign portfolio investors and renewed domestic investors’ confidence, which drove the market to five-month capital gains of N3.10 trillion by May. It was however moderated by declines towards the end of the last month.

     

  • ‘Why govt must intervene in financial markets’

    ‘Why govt must intervene in financial markets’

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Bankers’ Committee established the Nigerian Incentive-based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL) to help farmers get concessionary loans. In this interview with DANIEL ESSIET, Country Head, Solidaridad – Nigeria – an international Dutch development organisation, Alex Gbenga Akinbo, urges government to resuscitate state-owned agricultural development banks to make loans available to farmers.

     

    Why is the financial system reform so important to agriculture?

    The answer is simple. There is no farming without money. Money for farming not only means access to credit, but also access to other financial products and services. Providing credit access to farmers enables them to insure against risk, enabling them to save. Every farmer who wants to expand needs finance. It is still difficult for farmers to get credit because farming is considered a high risk activity. The importance of improving farmers’ access to financial services cannot be underestimated. Traditional financial institutions come with strings attached, taking away successful investment in small-scale sustainable farming. The rural poor have no easy access to loans and grants from commercial banks or financial structures because they lack collaterals and modern business plans. Providing sustainable financial services for agriculture continues to be a challenge in spite of millions of naira being spent to strengthen financial institutions to serve the sector. We need reforms because agriculture still receives a small share of total formal credit. We need a rollback of reforms and a return to active government’s intervention, including the resurrection of state-owned agricultural development banks and the reintroduction of interest rate ceilings on agricultural loans. No considerable success has been achieved by some microfinance institutions (MFIs) in providing sustainable microfinance services that contribute to resolving the agriculture credit problem, especially the rural poor. The banks limit their operations to areas with high population densities and farm loans usually represent a small share of their loan portfolios. The government needs to intervene in the financial market to induce financial institutions to increase the supply of and reduce the interest rates for agricultural loans. Special cheap lines of credit need to be provided to lenders, incentives given to open rural branches, and agricultural development banks created to serve the sector when banks and cooperatives fail to meet lending targets.

    Financing agricultural research remains a challenge for international organisations, governments, the private sector, and other development partners. Have we made progress in these areas?

    Agricultural research and development (R&D) is primarily funded by the governments and donors. Overall investment levels remain below the levels required to sustain viable agricultural R&D programmes that address current and future priorities. Mobilising domestic political support for agriculture, especially for agricultural R&D, has been difficult. One reason for this is the inherently long time lag between investing in research and attaining tangible benefits.

    How do we address this?

    The government should emphasise agricultural research and innovation for development.

    What sort of changes have you seen during this year in the agriculture sector?

    Looking at the past government’s policies in agriculture; Nigeria’s agricultural policy framework has gone through a number of evolutionary processes and fundamental changes that reflected in a historical perspective, the changing character of agricultural development problems and the roles, which different segments of the society were expected to play in tackling these problems. But in the main, the form and direction of agricultural policy were dictated by the philosophical stance of the government on the content of agricultural development and the role of the government in the development process. Succinctly put, one of the major constraints to agricultural policy effectiveness was that of policy instability. Over the years, the rate of turnover in agricultural policies had been high, with many policies formulated and scrapped in rapid succession. Again, this problem could be partly ascribed to political instability as every successive government tended to jettison most of its predecessor’s policies and programmes in the erroneous belief that a new government could only justify its existence or make its mark by adopting entirely new policies and programmes.

    How has this affected cocoa?

    The cocoa sector is fully liberalised and has no central coordination. Agricultural extension is very weak in most cocoa producing states. Farmers receive uncoordinated support from some states. The Nigerian Cocoa Development Committee (NCDC), populated by deputy chief executives of the 14 cocoa producing states, tried to stimulate the sector; they started well but the sector has become moribund. At the moment, the national research institutes seem to have limited resources to spread best practices in cocoa production, but this role has been augmented by Sustainable Tree Crops Programme (STCP), which has been active in Nigeria and has gained good reputation for supporting farmers to improve their yields. Aside from STCP, few other development initiatives have significant presence in the sector.

    What is the way out?

    Existing knowledge and experience of voluntary standards in cocoa (and other agricultural crops) is very low, so extensive advocacy and capacity building activities will require increasing the acceptance of norms for sustainable production and trade. Multinational cocoa and indigenous exporting trading companies in Nigeria may be the best channels into the cocoa sector transformation. The new agricultural policy of the Federal Government will herald a new policy direction through new policy strategies that will lay the foundation for sustained improvement in agricultural productivity and output. For example, the Cocoa Transformation Agenda of the Federal Government addresses a holistic array of challenges confronting the cocoa sector. The agenda would help to boost cocoa quality output through strategic interventions in the production, processing, storage and marketing of the beans. This will enhance the objective of building the technical capacity of the farmers and providing basic input needs of the small scale farmers in the upstream and downstream productivity for higher income, job and wealth creation and household food security.

    How far has Nigeria gone with regards to expanding cocoa production?

    As regards cocoa expansion, one has to look back to memory lane after the Nigerian cocoa economy witnessed a dramatic change, which was after the dissolution of the cocoa board in 1996. The liberalisation of the cocoa sector without a regulatory body resulted in sharp decline in cocoa production and the quality of cocoa beans. One of the objectives of resuscitating the cocoa sector is increasing cocoa production and farmers’ income and divercifi-cation of foreign exchange earnings. Therefore, cocoa intensification and rehabilitation is being advocated. This would not lead to wanton destruction of the forest and environmental degradation. Currently, Nigeria is the fourth largest world producer of cocoa and much can be done to change the position.

    What are the challenges the country is facing in this direction?

    The Nigerian cocoa sector is characterised by three major unsatisfactory conditions: very low yield of cocoa beans, poor quality and repressive labour issues. The average yield of 300-400kg per hectare compares unfavourably with the potential of up to 1000kg under good management and well over 1,500kg in new emerging cocoa agro systems in new emerging countries. These deplorable situations have been attributed to a number of factors, dominant among which are the following. The production system is characterised by small holder producers with average holdings of less than three hectares. This makes profes-sionalisation uneconomical. In addition, the nature of cocoa production does not easily lend itself to mechanisation or technological innovations. The farmers are typically illiterate. This makes training and adoption of new farming skills difficult. They have low agronomic skills, agro-inputs and the government extension services are grossly inadequate. Most of the trees are old and poor variety. The majority of the small scale farmers have not benefitted much from recent research on higher yielding varieties. Many of the farmers are largely dependent on the cocoa economy for survival, and replacement of the old trees with the new varieties has to be slow. There is increasing concern about biodiversity and food security in the cocoa communities. Efforts to increase cocoa production through expansion will lead to increasing deforestation and poor environmental stewardship. On the other hand, the monoculture production of cocoa coupled with low yield could give rise to abandonment of cocoa farms or conversion of the farms to more profitable crops. Social issues around poor labour relation between the farm owners and farm workers, inappropriate use of children in hazardous farm work are in practice in cocoa communities. There is also the issue of discrimination against women in terms of equal pay for work done. However, sustainable production practices through certification have the potential of tackling several of the above constraints.

    In spite of research and awareness creation programmes, the agriculture sector is lagging behind. What do you think is responsible for this?

    Nigeria faces a lot of problems with regard to cocoa production. First is the land tenure system. Land still belongs to communities despite the Federal Government’s Land Use Act that stipulates that land belongs to the government. Many serious or genuine farmers have no land to expand their cocoa farms. There is also the problem of low productivity as a result of depletion of soil fertility orchestrated by serious soil erosion, flooding and lack of appropriate fertiliser to augment the deficiencies. Attack and infestation by pests (insects and diseases), can cause loss of about 30-70 per cent of cocoa yield. Poor rural infrastructural facilities – good roads, water, light and recreational facilities to encourage young farmers to stay on the farm, is another factor. Others include poor access to credit facilities and unavailable input and where available, not at the reach of farmers, poor regulatory bodies to control the manufacture and importation of banned chemicals. This leads to serious effect on the environment and ill-health of the users and consumers of cocoa products.

    Concerns have been expressed on negative reports in the media about the use of child labour in cocoa production. What is the situation now?

    Child labour, if I may be right, I think is work that exploits a child by preventing him/her from realising his future potential. Child labour may appear in different forms but what we are emphasising is the worst form of child labour – which means as the work, which by its nature or the circumstances in which it is carried out, is likely to harm the health, safety or morals of a child. It has been defined to include all forms of slavery, child trafficking, child soldiers, commercial sexual exploitation, hazardous jobs and using him for illicit activities. Although it is not well pronounced in the agricultural sector, eliminating these worst forms of child labour should be a major concern to all. Solidaridad has recorded substantial success in using the platform of certification to address some of these issues.

    You worked with the Cocoa Producers Alliance (COPAL) to spearhead a campaign for increased cocoa consumption in the sub-region. What have you achieved?

    In the cocoa value-chain, we are involved in building the capacity of farmers through improved agronomical practices and to attain sustainable cocoa production, so that processors can have access to certified cocoa beans. This we achieved by encouraging processors to bring their cocoa producers together as farmer groups and we can help train them on sustainable production. Solidaridad had just trained over 62 Multi-trex (cocoa processor) staff, lead farmers and youths from Oyo, Ogun and Ondo states on sustainable practices and certification. Similar support would be extended to other cocoa processors in the country.

    Due to growth limitations in cocoa supply in West Africa, the world market has diversified cocoa origins, considering logical sourcing alternatives. What does it portend for the sub region?

    Of course other emerging cocoa producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia that are doing cocoa intensification would push West Africa back, unless there is serious intervention that would transform the cocoa sector.

    The keys to food security are climate stabilisation, population stabilisation, dramatic rises in water productivity, soil conservation and afforestation. Are these issues going to determine our future?

    Food security is a concept that sees the sustenance of food for man. The survival of man on earth depends solely on continuous food production with adequate security measures. But the ranging ecological fires such as massive erosion, deforestation, burning, leaching, pollution, increasing population pressure and desert encroachment with resultant low food production has drawn more attention to food security. In an environment where the system of food supply is not organised, hunger and famine will be rampant and frequent, leading to social, economic and political unrest. Take for example, the fall of General Niemeri of former Sudan – “the bread riot’’ led to his fall and attendant crises. For future stability, food supply throughout the year is a necessity for all groups of human beings. Therefore, there is need for the government’s intervention in terms of suitable policy measures and financing of research organisations for innovations on new production systems and minimising ecological disasters that would guarantee continuous food production without side effects on the producers, consumers and the environment.

    People are migrating from one agricultural field to another. How adversely does it affect our agricultural field? What do you think is the reason behind it?

    People see agriculture today as not sustainable because of the dwindling income from it and because it cannot meet their livelihood needs. The teeming youths are not interested in agriculture due to the absence of most social amenities, such as electricity, roads, pipe borne water, recreational facilities, health facilities, etc. These amenities, if available in rural communities, will induce unemployed younger ones to be engaged in agriculture and remain in farming communities. Price fluctuations in agricultural commodities, especially in cocoa which is major export earning, is a major factor that discourages the youth from cocoa farming. Lack of intra-family succession is gradually leading to a decline in cocoa production, as this leads to farm fragmentation after the death of family head and focus is given to pursuit of ‘better professions.’ The resultant effect is low crop production that cannot meet the need of the populace and food security problems.

    What is the mission of Solidaridad in Nigeria?

    Solidaridad is a Dutch international development organisation with over 30 years experience in sustainable value chain development. Solidaridad West Africa, has its regional expertise centre in Accra, Ghana and head office in Utrecht, Netherlands. The Nigeria office was opened in December 2010, but became operational in January 2011. Solidaridad’s mission is to support the sustainable and economic development of farmers and workers in West Africa and indeed Nigeria, and the sustainable environmental development of their production systems and the trade channels.

     

     

    Solidaridad has been using the dynamics of voluntary standards to achieve these goals in Nigeria. With a strategic alliance with Utz Certified, Solidaridad has become the leading development organisation promoting and supported farmer to achieve certification in Nigeria. Solidaridad is also in the forefront of the Certification Capacity Enhancement, a project for the development of a common curricula for the multi-certification of farmers across three voluntary standards; Fair Trade, Utz Certified and Rainforest Alliance. In the coming years, Solidarida West Africa will focus on the scaling up of this curriculum, the embodiment of sustainable practices in the sector of economies of the major cocoa producing countries of the region. Look, the current global demands on cocoa trade place emphasis on the production and handling processes as well as emphasises on good agricultural, environmental and social practices. In order to ascertain the conformation to acceptable production standards, especially with relation to quality, companies are signing up to buying only cocoa, which comply with known standards, otherwise known as certified cocoa.

     

  • Foreign portfolio outflows unsettle financial markets

    Foreign portfolio outflows unsettle financial markets

    The Naira buckled and Nigerian equities withered last week following the exit of foreign investors from the financial markets.

    The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) that had remained bullish tumbled in mid-week trading, building up a whooping loss of N888 billion within last three trading days of last week culminating in a decline of 5.85 per cent.

    The declines across Nigerian financial markets echoed the turbulent global financial markets, amid concerns about the prospects of world’s leading economies.

    Market sources said the depreciation across the markets was driven by foreign portfolio outflows as global funds sought to lock in profit or back up their central positions. Expectedly, this development exerted pressure on the Naira, which fell 0.8 per cent to N162.60 a dollar taking its weekly decline to 1.8 per cent. It was the worst performance since the five days through December 23, 2011 based on data compiled by Bloomberg.

    At the black market otherwise known as the unofficial market, the Naira, which opened last week at N159 per dollar closed at the weekend at N163 per dollar. The depreciation partly reflected strong corporate demand for dollar, and to a lesser extent upward trending bond yields that signals likely foreign divestment out of the bond market.

    But the CBN has assured that it’s ready to defend the naira and move the currency back to within the plus or minus three per cent of N155 band.

    CBN Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, Dr. Sarah Alade, who gave this assurance in a chat with The Nation at the weekend, urged operators in the financial markets not to panic.

    She said: “With our reserves at $49.35billion as at Thursday June 13, 2013, investors do not have any reason to worry at all. The CBN is still committed to making the exchange market stable. The movement outside the band is just a temporary measure.”

    Asked to confirm if foreign investors were actually exiting the equities and bond markets and repatriating their funds, the deputy governor said she could not authenticate that but the picture would be clearer today.

    In a bid to defend the exchange rate, the banking watchdog has been intervening in the bi-weekly official foreign exchange market (Whole Dutch Auction System) by increasing its dollar sale and had mopped through Treasury Bills and bonds a total of N7.6 trillion from the economy this year. Data from the CBN shows that forex sales at WDAS increased from an average of $162 million per session in the first quarter to $285 million from April to date.

    Nigerian financial markets are substantially susceptible to global market’s turbulence with foreign investors and companies dominating trading in Nigerian financial assets. Latest update shows that foreign investors accounted for 64.48 per cent of total transaction value at stock market in April, the last available data, a substantial increase on 52.78 per cent they recorded in March when they displaced domestic investors as the most influential investment block.

    However, last week’s decline came amidst concerns that a combination of continuous decline in global crude oil prices and domestic crude oil production could lead to depletion of external reserves, exchange rate instability and increased debt and higher fiscal deficit.

    Recent report by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s economic output in the first quarter slipped by 0.43 per cent to 6.56 per cent in the first quarter of this year as against 6.99 per cent recorded in the previous quarter-fourth quarter of 2012. The decline was largely due to poor output in the oil sector which led to a 1.05 per cent decline in the sector’s contribution to Gross Domestic Products (GDP) to 14.75 per cent.

    Global oil prices had declined considerably in recent period. Nigeria’s bonny light crude currently trades at $107.5pb, 7.2 per cent lower than $115.3 per barrel (pb) in first quarter 2013 just as Nigeria’s oil output declined to 1.94 million barrel per day (mbpd) in April. The decline in global oil prices is largely due to demand concerns and the continuous uncertainty in Europe. Domestic oil output has also been negatively affected by several disruptions such as pipeline vandalism, bunkering and force majeure.

    Financial Derivatives Company noted that the declining price and output imply a shortfall in federal government revenue as a result of Nigeria’s ultra dependence on oil, estimating that Nigeria might have since lost some 6.8 per cent of its oil revenue of $1.85 trillion in first quarter 2013.

    According to analysts, a further decline in global oil prices to $90pb will be devastating for the Nigerian economy, as the reverberations of the shocks will hamper any form of growth across all sectors of the economy.

    All these could be compounded by possible increase in the government spending in view of the military action in some Northern states, which poses potential risks to inflation and exchange rate.

    “Given that oil prices, notably bonny light crude, decline to $90pb, Nigeria could see a further decline in its growth rate by 1.5per cent. Also, oil revenue would immediately decline by 30 per cent or $2.4 billion per month in nominal terms. This will cause a rapid increase in government borrowing, add to the current total government debt of N8.7 trillion and increase the nation’s fiscal deficit beyond the current target of 2.85 per cent of GDP,” analysts at FDC had noted.

    They pointed out that as the value of the naira falls at the parallel market and the likelihood for capital flight increases, external reserves could be depleted by about $10 billion to $15 billion from the current level of $48.5 billion. The resultant $33.5 billion to $38.5 billion will only cover an average of eight months of exports, which may lead to increase in Nigeria’s borrowing.

    “The implications of a further decline in oil prices paint a bleak picture for the Nigerian economy,” FDC stated.

    Analysts, however, noted the possibility of an upturn in global economy, which may also positively impact Nigeria’s economic outlook and stave the economy from austere future.

     

  • ‘Emergency rule will not affect financial markets’

    The emergency rule in Yobe, Adamawa and Borno states will not affect the money, capital and fixed-instrument segment of the financial market, the Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Limited, Mr Bismarck Rewane, has said.

    He said the emergency would not send wrong signals to investors, but only shows that the country is managing its security well.

    Speaking on the state of the economy vis-à-vis the performance of the financial services sector on a television programme, Rewane said the nation’s security could be managed rightly or wrongly. He said the security is being managed well, considering the case of the three states.

    “To do nothing is not acceptable. What the government is doing is to ring the crisis so that it will not spread to other parts of the country. So, it is neither sending bad signals to the foreign investors not affecting the activities in the various segments of the financial market. Rather, it is a good signal to investors,” he said, adding: “How many investors from the three states are investing in the market? They are few. So, how would the current development send wrong signal to investors in those areas?

    According to him, the issue of flow of investors to the domestic market should be the major concern of the operators among other stakeholders now.

    “I think the question we should be asking is: “How much of the domestic investors are going into the market?” he asked.

    Domestic investors, he said, were the real catalyst for change, adding that they must be encouraged to participate actively in our market. He said the government, investors and households constitute a major force in any economy, adding that the environment must be made conducive for investors to create capital formation.

    He said the decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to maintain the 12 per cent Monetary Policy Rate was expected, given the happenings in the macroeconomic environment.

    Rewane said CBN in deciding the MPR looks at anticipations in the economy, and from there takes a position that is good for the industry and the economic in particular.

    “Inflation is a threat to oil prices. If oil price drops and the depletion of reserves occur, the apex will put in place measures to absorb the shocks that would occasion the development,” he said.

    The Financial Derivative boss said democratic promotion and cultures would continue to grow to support national development, arguing that the discussions on the issue of budget amendment currently with the National Assembly are part of the democratic processes.

    In a related development, the Managing Director, Bgl Securities Limited, Mr Sunday Adebola, said domestic participation was critical to the growth of the financial market.

    He said it has been proven globally that no country develops its market from outside. He said many countries have developed their market to a point before foreign investors come in to assist in one way or the other.

     

    He said the need to encourage domestic involvement in the money, treasury bills, bonds, and capital market is necessary to foster meaningful growth.

    “Let look at what happened in 2008 when foreign portfolio investors left the country. If we do not have a vibrant financial market, it would be difficult to absorb the shocks internally when a major and global problem occurs,” he said.

    Mr Adebola said more local interest is being generated in various segment of the market, advising investors to sustain the feat.

     

  • Obi shuts Onitsha bridge-head ‘markets’

    Anambra State governor, Mr. Peter Obi, yesterday shut down illegal markets on the stretch of roads from the bridge head Onitsha to Zik round as well as the dual carriage way from Awka to Onitsha.

    The governor made this announcement during the inspection of the on- going reconstruction work on the road.”

    A visibly- angry Obi lamented that he had for years appealed to traders on the axis to leave without success.

    According to him: “I knew what it took me to persuade contractors working in Anambra State to cut their holidays short and resume work at their various sites.

    “It is annoying that having resumed work, they are prevented on many sites from working because some people are trading on the sites, parking vehicles and even defecating.

    “We shall no longer tolerate that. I hereby order the immediate shutting down of illegal markets along the road.

    He added: “Before the end of the month, we shall relocate to Onitsha to monitor things ourselves until the town and all our other towns return to their old glory.

    “We must forcefully demonstrate that Onitsha and any part of Anambra State is not meant for pigs, but for humans.”