Tag: May 29

  • Where will you be on May 29?

    Where will you be on May 29?

    I have been asked this question several times since Muhammadu Buhari won the March 28 presidential election. Not because the enquirers really need an answer that will be of any benefit to them, as I later found out. It is mere rhetoric emanating from the excitement of the moment – a feeling of being part of history.

    But, talking seriously, dear reader, where will you be tomorrow? I take it for granted that you know what is on in town. Buhari, soldier, farmer, administrator and politician, will take the oath as President at the Eagle Square in Abuja. Millions around the world will watch on television the ceremony, which will symbolise the change Nigerians voted for on March 28.

    Just before the big show, it is fitting and proper to revisit this innocuous but loaded question in relation to some of the actors in the President Goodluck Jonathan administration. Where will Dr Jonathan be tomorrow? Eagle Square? No. I guess he will be somewhere watching it all on television or taking a rest after all those long sanctimonious farewell and thanksgiving services.

    For those debating his future, Dr Jonathan gave them more than a clue last week when he said he would be a “peace ambassador”, a statesman preaching peace. Will he be going to Iraq? Syria? Kenya? Somalia? Burundi? I really don’t know.

    Sir, not so fast and cheap, a cheeky reporter said. “Your wife, we recall, recently proclaimed herself Mama Peace and before the nickname could stick, she had mounted the rostrum to tell your supporters to stone your opponents,” said the fellow, adding rather insolently: “Is statesmanship a fedora (Resource Control) hat to be snatched off the rack and decked just like that? Is it petrol that can just be bought at the black market? No.”

    In his warped view, Dr Jonathan should return to the classroom to oblige students of his experience, telling them how a man of humble background, a man not many gave a chance and a man not given to struggling for anything was catapulted to the dizzying height of the highest office in the land only to bungle it all like a novice, beg for forgiveness and dare the new administration to probe him.  He said yesterday that Buhari should extend the probe to previous  administrations, how “oil wells, marginal fields and oil fields” were allocated. Easy, Mr President, easy. Statemanship beckons.

    In the alternative, said the fellow, Jonathan can simply go back to rustic Otuoke, relive those shoeless old days and revive the family’s age-old trade of boat making.

    Incidentally, Elder Godsday Orubebe – remember him? The one who became the subject of beer parlour jokes after his thuggish attempt to disrupt the collation of the presidential election results failed – had last week advised the Ijaw to return to their God – given trade of fishing and gin making. Words of elders are, indeed,  words of wisdom. He spoke at a seminar organised by the Ijaw Professionals Association in Lagos.

    Where will Femi Fani-Kayode be tomorrow? Thankfully, it is a public holiday. The courts will be closed. He won’t need to be there in pursuit of his desperate battle to stave off jail for alleged money laundering. I guess he will be watching it all on television even as he rues the day he took up the job of a presidential Rottweiler. Forget all the I-have-no-regrets braggadocio in newspapers. A little bird tells me he has been in a foul mood, frowning, flouncing and floundering since Jonathan lost the election.

    Fani-Kayode’s partner Dr Doyin Okupe – where in the world has he been? – must have calmed down now, dazed by the reality of a Buhari presidency, after he had sworn that the man would not take the prize. He too will most likely be sitting in front of his television set, cursing his poor luck. Or be busy in a gym, according to a close associate who pleaded not to be named because of what he described as the confidentiality of the information.

    Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the one with the bombastic title of Finance minister and Coordinating minister for the Economy, probably has a first class ticket tucked away in her handbag. She will likely be set to return to Washington for a handshake, a pat on the back for playing it by the book. On her way to the airport, she is sure to be confronted with crowds and queues of people tearing at one another in a suicidal bid to get petrol. She will find long rows of jerry cans and people, among them some of the proud owners of the N5b stoves – ah! What a great investment – just delivered to the Presidency, struggling to buy kerosene. Apocalypse? Not quite.”Petrocalypse”? Yes.

    So much for the champion of rebasing and all those exotic and esoteric obfuscations.

    But, trust Nigerians; in the pains of the fuel shortage the fecundity of their minds has found hilarious expressions.

    I have seen on the Internet a picture of movie star Funke “Jenifa” Akindele holding a bicycle on one hand, a helmet on the other and saying: “Thank God for my bicycle. Wonder how I would have got to church today.” And somebody passed a comment: “In these high heel shoes?”

    In yet another posting, there is the picture of a man sleeping in the night, his right hand on a jerry can full of petrol and the other on his power generator, the type popularly called “I better pass my neighbour”, chained to his bed.

    In another posting, an Alsatian dog stays on guard over a jerry can of fuel that is chained by the owner to his window’s iron burglar proof. Another had a big padlock on his car’s fuel tank cover.

    A fellow suggested cynically the other day that petrol will soon be part of the items to be demanded at marriage engagements by some wily in-laws. You never can tell.

    Jonathan, said a colleague of mine, has decided to turn us all into trekkers for Buhari – a curious parallel to those who have embarked on trekking to Abuja to mark Buhari’s victory. Many have queried their integrity. How were they feeding on the way? Were there no robbers on the highway? No sore feet? No wild animals crossing the road? Anyway, isn’t  this an unusual season of unusual actions?

    Former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Chairman Adamu Muazu is somewhere in Singapore where doctors have been telling him to take it easy. I am told he has no life threatening ailment, just a post-electoral defeat trauma which the doctors have assured him will not lead to long-term neurosis.

    Those who are anxious to rebuild the PDP have forced him to throw in the towel. Muazu is not likely to return tomorrow. The mere sight of Buhari on the podium, taking the oath of office may cause a fatal relapse.

    Chief Tony Anenih has surrendered his chairmanship of the PDP’s Board of Trustees (BOT). I am told he was yielding the position to Jonathan, who is said to have turned it down. His admirers have said “the fixer” should have tarried a little longer before taking what they describe as a precipitous decision. They are wrong; the chief is experienced enough to know that when a blind man ceases to hear the noise at the market place, it is all over; he will pack and go home (apology to the late Bashorun Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola). Will he be watching the TV? I really can’t say.

    Where will Interior Minister Abba Moro be tomorrow? A source tells me how busy the minister has been, supervising the jobs and promotions bazaar at the Immigration Department. Those who got injured in the March 15, 2014 jobs stampede in which no fewer than 18 youths died, have lost out in the scramble for space in the department, despite a presidential directive that they should be employed. They have been dumped for those who have the right connections.

    The minister, many have suggested, should be made to explain whose idea the   huge cash-for-jobs scam was. Have they refunded the cash they got? How do we prevent this kind of mass murder in this era of change? Remember it was a major campaign issue during the general elections.

    Moro will surely look morose tomorrow as he follows it all on television.

    When Buhari was proclaimed winner of the election, a friend of mine, an accountant with an exceptional culinary skill and taste, called a party at his Magodo, Lagos home. I understand another jollification is afoot. I hope to be there as we celebrate CHANGE, just before the serious business of clearing the mess to pave the way for the great future Nigeria deserves.

    Where will you be tomorrow, dear reader?

  • May 29: Who will hand over Chibok Girls?

    SIR: Ruminating on the state of the nation, and the thought that President Jonathan will hand over power to Muhammad Buhari in about 24 hours from now crossed my mind. Then again, I remember that it is already 409 days today since over 200 schoolgirls were abducted from a secondary school in Chibok, Borno State, by the members of Boko Haram terrorists group and they are yet to be handed over to their respective parents. Also, it is another Children’s Day. I thought of the ‘pains’ the ‘free Nigerians’ are going through at the moment – fuel scarcity, electricity shutdown and more and again I tried to imagine the agony the girls will be going through in the hands of their abductors.

    President Goodluck Jonathan had in the past made series of public statements assuring that his government will do everything necessary to ensure that the kidnapped Chibok girls are rescued. It is already 24 hours to the handing over date; yet, the whereabouts of the Chibok girls is still elusive.

    Though our soldiers have recorded some successes in rescuing a group of women and girls, however, what could have been a perfect complement/icing on the cake for the May 29 handing over ceremony is being able to rescue these girls and hand them over to their parents. But except for a miracle, this is not likely to happen with the President Jonathan’s government.

    The question then is who will hand over the Chibok Girls back to their parents and when? It is another Children’s Day celebration again, making it the second that the girls are spending in the camp of their abductors. Since the government of President Jonathan has failed to rescue these girls, the onus is therefore on the incoming government of Muhammad Buhari to ensure that the mystery around the whereabouts of the Chibok girls is unravelled; the girls rescued and handed over to their parents.

     

    • Adeolu Isadiran,

     Ikorodu, Lagos.

  • May 29 fever grips states

    May 29 fever grips states

    Governor-elect rejects N15b Govt House

    Fashola, Ambode meet security chiefs

    Suntai packs out of Govt House

    APC to review governor’s ‘rush hour’ pacts

    Some 48 hours to the inauguration of the Muhammadu Buhari administration, there seems to be a surge of activities in the land.

    Dignitaries are arriving for the ceremony, which will take place at the Eagle Square in Abuja. Guinean President Alpha Conde arrived yesterday. The city’s streets are festooned with flags.

    A committee has started the accreditation of the media for the historic event for which all the big hotels have been booked.

    In states where new governors are to take office – incumbents will also take the oath of office – there is a build-up to the day. Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola and Governor-elect Akinwunmi Ambode met with security chiefs at the State House in Marina.

    Fashola handed the security apparatus in the nation’s commercial capital to his would-be successor at a meeting of the State’s Security Council.

    Fashola bade farewell to the Council, which he has headed since 2007.

    Members of the Council at the meeting are: Commander 9 Mechanised Brigade, Ikeja, Brigadier General Ahmed Sabo; Commander AirForce 435 Base, Ikeja, Air Commodore Lere Osanyintolu; Commander NNS BeeCroft, Navy Commodore Teikumo Daniel Ikoli; Deputy Commissioner of Police, Operations, Mr. Johnson Kokumo, who represented Commissioner of Police Kayode Aderanti and Director, State Security Service, Mr. Ben Olayi

    Also there were: Chief of Staff to the Governor  Lanre Babalola; Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice Ade Ipaye; Special Adviser on Security and Policing Matters Major Tunde Panox and Executive Secretary, Lagos State Security Trust Fund (LSSTF), Mr. Fola Arthur-Worrey.

    In PlateauState, Governor-elect Simon Lalong has said he will not work from the new Government House in Jos, the state capital.

    The governor-elect said the N15 billion property had not been completed, adding that he does not need such luxury to serve the people.

    He said: “I am not going to occupy an uncompleted building as a government house. In any case, I don’t need such a house to work for the people of Plateau State.

    “In serving Plateau people, I don’t need a luxury office. I’d rather prefer people of the state live in luxury homes with all social services provided. So, I don’t think a new government house is a priority of Plateau people. I don’t need such an office to serve my people.

    “I was told that new government house has cost over N15 billion and it is still uncompleted. I can’t live in such an office when Plateau people have no water to drink, children are not going to school, civil servants are not paid, there is no medical care in rural areas and most villages have no roads. So, I don’t need such capital-intensive government house. Such a project amounts to a misapplication of scarce fund.”

    Lalong said his administration would review uncompleted projects left by the outgoing Jonah Jang administration before completing them.

    Jang had urged the incoming administration to complete ongoing projects before starting new ones.

    But Lalong said: “I am going to complete all ongoing projects I am going to inherit. But I will have to review them and know the cost implication. The abandoned projects are numerous. I have to review all of them. I need to know which contractor is involved and how much has been spent so far on each of the projects.

    “Governor Jang has claimed he is leaving a debt of over N8 billion for me, excluding the N28 billion bond he collected before the election. Then, he is owing the civil servants at least seven months of unpaid salaries and unquantified workers’ allowances and pensioners’ funds.

    “On all these financial liabilities, I am going to set up a committee to review them and advise government accordingly.”

    Also yesterday, the state chapter of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) prevented Jang from inaugurating some projects for non-payment of workers’ salary.

    The governor was billed to inaugurate a radio station at the Jos Campus of the State Polytechnic.

    The aggrieved workers barricaded the entrance to the newly-built Revenue House of the State Internal Revenue Service.

    A spokesman for the workers, Mr Paul Dakogal, who is also the Chairman of the Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (SSAN), said: “It is inappropriate for Jang to inaugurate any project. Governor Jang did not contribute any resource in facilitating the project. How then can he inaugurate it?

    “When we heard that the governor planned to inaugurate a radio station, among other projects in the state, despite the workers’ strike, we decided to stop that nonsense.

    “He has not paid workers for more than a year and students are at home because of strike. Yet, he intended to inaugurate projects.”

    Dakojal recalled that for four years, the polytechnic could only produce two sets of graduates.

    Dakojal said the Education sector in Plateau had deteriorated in the past eight years.

    TheNiger State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) plans to review what it called “rush hour” agreements or Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) by outgoing Governor Babangida Aliyu with any company or individual.

    The party kicked against the lease of the new state-owned hotel opposite the Government House in Minna to a private firm to manage for 30 years.

    In a statement yesterday in Minna, the state capital, by its Publicity Secretary Jonathan Vatsa, the party said it discovered that the hotel was built from the Subsidy Reinvestment Empowerment Programme (SURE-P) funds given to the state.

    APC alleged that the facility was leased to a private firm with interest to the outgoing Aliyu administration.

    APC said it would have disregarded the outgoing government’s last-minute moves but needed to lay everything before the people to promote accountability and fight corruption.

    It said: “We feel that the people of the state should be aware before our party takes over government.”

    The statement warned that “all MoU and agreements signed at rush hours that are outright rip-off of the state’s scarce resources and/or against the interest of the state will be duly revisited”.

    It added: “We will not allow few individuals to make the majority of Niger residents to suffer. Rather, it will be that the few will suffer for the good of the majority of the people of Niger State.  This is even divine. We will, by the grace of God, restore the glory of Niger State, even if few people are to suffer for it.

    “The era of digital charades aimed at benefiting the few is over. We shall not be party to unrealistic agenda in the name of setting the state on the path of development. Wwe know we cannot do it alone. As such, we will carry along all Niger residents on the path of change for restoration.”

    Also, the party expressed concern over the re-absorbtion of some retired top civil servants into the civil service – all aimed at creating problems for the incoming government.

    Benue State Governor-elect, Samuel Ortom warned those wishing to work with his administration to focus on service rather than money.

    Speaking with our reporter ahead of May 29 inauguration in his Makurdi home, Ortom said his administration would not condone “primitive accumulation of wealth by political appointees and public office holders”.

    The governor-elect said it is morally wrong for a Level Seven officer in the civil service to acquire expensive property and live an ostentatious lifestyle.

    He said such a government official would arouse questions about where he or she got the funds for such a lifestyle.

    Ortom said his administration would fight corruption and flush out corrupt officials so that the people could enjoy quality living.

    The governor-elect urged those planning to use his administration to make money to go into private businesses and become richer.

    He said he had a vision in 1992 to become the governor of Benue State.

    According to him, his coming to the Government House in Makurdi is a divine arrangement.

    Ortom promised not disappoint the people and God, who made his dream come true.

    The governor-elect also promised to rule with the fear of God, eradicate poverty, ensure fairness to all, run a transparent government and promote love and unity.

    His priorities, he said, include the creation of wealth, restoring peace, growing micro-industries and promoting massive trading so that people would not depend on government alone.

    “I have been around for a while and I’m conversant with the challenges. I will do things that will add value to the people and put smiles on their face,” Ortom said.

    TarabaState Governor Danbaba Danfulani Suntai has packed his personal effects from the Government House in Jalingo, ahead of Friday’s handover.

    Suntai has been recuperating at the Government House as a ceremonial figure, following the injuries he sustained when a plane he piloted crashed near Yola, the Adamawa State capital, on October 25, 2012.

    The governor started packing his belongings on Monday and continued yesterday.

    His wife, Hauwa, held a “strictly by invitation” farewell party last week with 30 women in attendance.

    Suntai will complete two terms of eight years on Friday without building a personal house.

    His deputy, Abubakar Sani Danladi, who has been acting, bought a house for him in Jalingo, where his belongings were packed to.

    Taraba residents called for “special prayers” for him and his successor, Governor-elect Darius Dickson Ishaku, for a peaceful transition.

    The prayers, offered in churches, began last Sunday.

    Scores were killed when the March 28 election was declared as inconclusive by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), even as Ishaku, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was leading the only woman candidate and flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Aisha Alhassan.

    Ishaku’s supporters did not throw a party to celebrate when he won by a runoff with an aggregate of 369,318 votes.

    “Now, we want to celebrate. People should be allowed to jubilate and celebrate when they triumph in an election.

    “We were not allowed to celebrate the victory. Rather a curfew was imposed for a week.

    “Before the rerun election, our supporters were killed because they were celebrating victory. The inauguration should not be the same, Peter Ada, a trader, told The Nation yesterday.

    Ada urged the Acting Governor Abubakar Sani Danladi to strengthen security to protect lives and property during the inauguration.

  • COUNTDOWN TO MAY 29: Inheriting an empty treasury

    COUNTDOWN TO MAY 29: Inheriting an empty treasury

    ‘Nigeria jaga, jaga, poor man, dey suffer, suffer…’

    Governors elected on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) last Tuesday literally opened a Pandora’s Box when they admitted to President-elect, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari that the President Goodluck Jonathan-led PDP had milked the economy dry, a development, which set off a chain of reactions. Ibrahim Apekhade Yusuf in this report examines the issues

    WHEN Nigeria’s famous hip hop sensation, Eedris Abdulkareem, born Eedris Turayo Abdulkareem Ajenifuja, in 2004, waxed the above lyrics, he was made the butt of derisive jokes and roundly condemned by government apologists, many of who believed he was buoyed by selfish reasons rather than by patriotic fervour.

    But when you fast forward to 2015, the import of what Eedris Abdulkareem sang about remains a sad reality still: Nigeria’s economy is in the doldrums. Put more succinctly, Nigeria is dead broke!

    But how? Why? What happened? A penny for your thought: after constant self-denial that Nigeria’s economy was in good standing, albeit, financially, those vested with the responsibility of managing the nation’s common wealth have since recanted. Finally, the chicken has come home to roost and the jury is out: there is no money left in the treasure. Truth be told, all the assurances of the past years, it does appear, were all false claims after all.

    Reality bite

    Peeved by the gloomy reality that stares them on the face, the APC governors had last Tuesday met with President-elect, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (retd) at the Defence House, Abuja, to express their displeasure over the parlous state of the economy.

    The governors cried out that most state governments had gone bankrupt and, therefore, cannot pay workers’ salaries.

    According to them, it was obvious that they were going to inherit huge debts which may delay speedy progress in their respective states. They were, however, silent on APC states like Lagos, Edo and Osun, which are currently the most indebted in the country.

    Addressing journalists after their indoor meeting with Buhari, chairman of APC governors, Chief Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, said the outgoing government had ruined the economy.

    According to him, the fact that the federal government has not paid April salaries was an indication that the economy was not healthy.

    “One of the issues that became of concern to all of us is the state of the Nigerian economy which is really in bad shape. We have come to notify the incoming president of the challenges ahead of him,” Okorocha said.

    Pressed further, he said: “As it stands, most states of the federation have not been able to pay salaries and even the federal government has not paid April salary and that is very worrisome.

    “By May and June, the salary will be in cumulative of three months. With the huge expectation from Nigerians and people who have voted us into power, we wonder. We are hoping that the president-elect will do whatever that is humanly possible to bring about a bailout not only in the states but the Federal Government, at least for people to get their salaries and turn around the economy.”

    Nigeria’s troubling debt burden

    As at December 31, 2014, Nigeria’s debt burden was put at N11.24 trillion.

    After the Paris debts buy back, a lot of people expected that die down but that has not been the case.

    In its 2014 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), the nation also adopted a  subsisting debt management strategy as captured in the approved Nigeria’s Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS), for 2012-2015, which seeks to achieve an optimal mix in the debt portfolio of 60:40 for domestic and external debts respectively as against the current mix of 83:17 through a gradual substitution of relatively more expensive domestic borrowing with cheaper external financing.

    Thus, the 2014 DSA has already incorporated government’s policy objective of reducing the overall cost of government borrowing at an acceptable level of risks. This may have informed the minister’s statement of government’s preference for approaching multilateral agencies.

    The objective of the 2014 DSA is to assess the country’s capacity to finance its projects/programmes and service its debt obligations, without undue large adjustments that may compromise its macroeconomic stability, overall growth and development.

    The growing concern over the country’s debt overhang has been on the front burner for years, but often times, government officials have always argued that the nation’s debt level has not gone out of a safe trajectory. However, the lid over this confidence margin, appears to be weakening and increasingly contested.

    A lecturer at the Pan Atlantic University, Lagos, Dr. Austin Nweze, pointed out a grave danger in accumulating excessive foreign debts as such would place undue burden on future generations, especially if the loans are not channeled into capital projects. Nweze, however, said that there is nothing wrong in borrowing provided the funds are well utilised or invested in the provision of infrastructure.

    According to him, the fall in oil prices has reduced revenue receipts, forcing the government to look for money to run the economy.

    Dr. Isaac Nwaogwugwu, a lecturer at Department of Economics, University of Lagos, said there is no way we are going to finance capital budget without borrowing.

    He said: “That is why the allocation to capital account or expenditure is very small unless the government says it not ready to invest or provide for the future then it’s going to borrow.

    But how did we get to this sorry past? At this juncture a short anecdote would suffice:

    Remote cause of cash crunch

    Despite becoming the largest economy in Africa, the Nigeria economy faced major headwinds last year, from the substantial decline in international oil prices in the second half of the year to significant constraints to business activities in the north-eastern part of the country owing to the activities of insurgent and then the build-up to the 2015 elections.

    Thus the cash shortage caused by low oil prices have forced Nigeria to borrow heavily through the early part of 2015, with the government struggling to pay public workers the federal government admitted last Wednesday.

    “We have serious challenges. Things have been tough since the beginning of the year and they are likely to remain so till the end of the year,” said Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

    Despite been Africa’s top economy and largest oil producer, Nigeria has been hammered by the 50 percent fall in oil prices, with crude sales accounting for more than 70 percent of government revenue.

    Okonjo-Iweala said the federal government had a projected borrowing allowance for 2015 of 882 billion naira ($4.4 billion/4 billion euros). But N473billion had already been used up to meet recurrent expenditures, including public worker salaries. “We have front-loaded the borrowing programme to manage the cash crunch in the economy,” the minister told reporters.

    While Okonjo-Iweala said the severity of Nigeria’s cash crunch requires daily management, the problem will certainly be off her desk in a few weeks time, as president-elect Muhammadu Buhari will be sworn in on May 29 and may not likely retain any of the key ministers appointed by outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan.

    Okonjo-Iweala said Nigeria was still projected to grow at 4.8 percent this year and was therefore “doing much better than many other oil producing countries,” similarly hit by the collapse in crude prices.

    Before the headwinds in the oil market, the country set its benchmark crude price between 75 and 80 dollars, and was supposed to deposit excess revenue in a savings account. But even when crude was selling above $100 last year, the federal government struggled to build savings.

    The federal government had pauperised most states and made it impossible for them to pay the salaries of their workers by refusing to refund the huge funds they spent on federal projects.

    Points to ponder

    To Festus Keyamo, one of the sad reality of Jonathan’s government is the brazen crude oil theft which became so legalised that there was now what is known as “Bayelsa diesel” in the market, a fall-out of the 400,000 barrels per day of crude oil valued at $60billion stolen in Nigeria, which is the equivalent of the daily crude oil production of Equatorial Guinea.

    Besides, he said, another case in point is the $20 billion missing oil funds which ought to have accrued to the Excess Crude Account (ECA).

    “The crude oil benchmark for 2014 budget was $77.5, in which Nigeria made $33 per every barrel of oil, which amounted to about $24 billion in a year. But we recorded less than $6 billion in the ECA. So, the question is what happened to the remainder?” he queried.

    Sadly, Keyamo said, over N1 trillion was budgeted for defence in 2014 with little or no result to show for it.

    The Jonathan administration reportedly built a new banquet hall at the presidential villa to the tune of $100 million just as it bought a brand new private jet to add to the presidential fleet, much bigger than those of more endowed nations as well as most airlines across Africa.

    Way forward

    While attempting a prognosis of the economic fundamentals in Nigeria, Razia Khan, Managing Director, Head, Africa Macro, Global Research, Standard Chartered Bank, United Kingdom, said, “In terms of future monetary policy, there isn’t a great deal of new news at this point. The current monetary policy stance is considered to be sufficiently tight and this will continue.”

    “Our sense is that this stance will be viewed positively by investors – many of whom will be looking to re-enter Nigerian markets post-election. However, we are only likely to see this happen in scale when investors themselves start to share the CBN’s optimism on the stabilisation of the Nigerian naira.”

    Prof. Jide Osuntokun, Pro-Chancellor of Ekiti State University (EKSU), Ado-Ekiti, in an article titled: ‘Buhari: Sweat and tears’, he suggested a change in revenue mobilisation as a means to revamp the economy. “There has to be a change in revenue mobilisation, a situation in which Nigeria charges a VAT of seven percent while other African states are charging 18percent must change. We have to increase VAT to 18percent especially at a time when our income for oil has been reduced by 50percent.”

    Otunba JK Randle, renowned financial expert while advising the incoming government on what economic template to adopt in terms of interest rate management, said: “You cannot isolate interest rate, you have to look at the entire picture. You have to look at the exchange rate, as well as the inflation rate and most importantly, the productivity rate. All of them have to be in alignment.”

    On further devaluation if the naira, he said: “Devaluation of the naira is a function of supply and demand. Again, it is combination of two things namely: supply and demand.”

    Continuing, he said: “There is element of confidence in other words, there is no panic-buying or speculative buying or round-tripping or what have you, you can establish a certain reasonable level of stability. What is happening now, volatility, which is being driven by equity factors. The reality is that you will be earning less and less. The price of oil has dropped considerably.

    They have not explored the non-oil sector sufficiently enough for whatever reason, is very instructive that.”

    The duo of Mr. Walter Ahrey, a former Director of Strategy and Performance at the Central Bank of Nigeria, and Prof. Jonathan Aremu, renowned economist and professor of International Economic Relations at the Covenant University, hold the view and very strongly too that what better way to address the legion of economic woes bedeviling the nation is by taken decisive steps aimed at blocking all leakages and wastages in the system.

    Such measures, Ahrey and Aremu said would ensure an uptick in the economy sooner than later.

    A cross-section of analysts have also assured that the second half of the year is expected to offer some respite to the domestic economy as political uncertainties taper, the international oil prices gradually inch upward on the back of the expectations of output cuts by OPEC at its next meeting in June 2015.

     

     

  • Ijaw/ Itsekiri’s stand on Amnesty Programme beyond May 29

    Their kinsman, President Goodluck Jonathan, lost his second term bid to retain the juiciest political position in Nigeria, but the ex-militants and their leaders are determined not to go down with him. They have resolved to work with the President-elect Muhammadu Buhari.

    Instead of resorting on their initial threats to destabilise country, the umbrella body of the ex-freedom fighters, Leadership, Peace and Cultural Development Initiative (LPCDI), was among the groups that congratulated Gen. Buhari and pledged to work with him.

    But the former creek warlords predicated their support on the sustenance of the Presidential Amnesty Programme. They said they would not dream of returning to the creeks or disrupting oil production as long as the incoming President retain the Amnesty Office and allow it to maintain the status quo.

    In fact, that was the idea behind the congratulatory message sent to Gen.Buhari by the National President, LPCDI, and former notorious militant leader, Pastor Reuben Wilson. The ex-militant leaders through Wilson hailed Buhari for his victory at the poll, but begged him not to abandon the amnesty programme of the Federal Government.

    He warned that there would be no peace in the region if the Presidential Amnesty Programme is neglected or abandoned. He further stated that, if the Niger Delta is neglected as it was in the past, the ex-militant would use every resource at their disposal to stop oil production.

    But few days after LPCDI presented a serious case backed by the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) in favour of the continuation of the Amnesty Programme, a former Itsekiri warlord, Chief Ayiri Emami, urged Gen. Buhari to stop the programme. He even demanded a thorough probe of the operation of the programme. Emami argued that the use of arms in the name of a struggle should be treated as terrorism.

    He said: ”If the layman’s understanding of the word amnesty is anything to go by, then it presupposes an arrangement where militants who genuinely turn in all their arms and ammunition are rehabilitated, re-oriented and trained with a view to reintegrating them to everyday societal living.

    “In the ordinary sense of it, any person or group that picks up arms in the name of struggle or agitation ought to have been treated as terrorists, hence nobody or group should take the gesture of the federal government for granted.

    “Amnesty should not be continuous; partially giving out money to youths from a particular ethnic nationality is wrong, sending some of them abroad for training without any visible impact on the Niger Delta and the nation at large is counter-productive.”

    Undoubtedly, Emami stirred the Hornets’ comb. His counterparts are up in arms against him. Wilson, who represents the interests of many of the formerly dreaded ex-militants, immediately replied him. He appealed to Gen. Buhari to ignore him.

    He insisted that the call by Emami that the amnesty should be discontinued was made in bad faith and premised on his pathological hatred for the Ijaw nation.

    He insisted that the call was based on a misconception that the programme was benefitting only the Ijaw. Wilson, however, explained that the amnesty programme was designed for all the Niger Delta ex-militants.

    He said: “The amnesty is for all ex-freedom fighters, and if the Ijaws are in majority, it then means they were more actively involved than any other tribe in the Niger Delta liberation struggle.

    “Moreover, the Ijaws are in majority in the Niger Delta and the fourth largest ethnic nationality in Nigeria. Therefore, it is natural for the Ijaws to dominate the Presidential Amnesty Programme for ex-militants in the Niger Delta, owing to their population and active involvement in the Niger Delta struggle.”

    The way things stand, Gen. Buhari, except for a change of heart, may not scrap the programme. What may happen may be some form of re-organisation, which Wilson and others appear against. They seem to think the programme is perfect finish and should be left as the way it is.

    Post-May 29 will determine the programme’s fate.

  • President won’t hand over till May 29, says Fed Govt

    President won’t hand over till May 29, says Fed Govt

    President Goodluck Jonathan will handover on May 29 and not May 28 as previously announced, Minister of Information Mrs Patricia Akwashiki said yesterday.

    She made the clarification after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting presided over by President Jonathan.

    According to her, only the inaugural dinner will hold on May 28.

    She said: “28th May is not the date for handover, 29th May is for handover and Democracy Day.”

    “The President is still the President till 29th May  when the President-elect will take over”.

    “I have to make a little clarification because some people thought I said May 28 would be the handover date. I never said that.

    “I said May 28 will be the last day that we will have our handing over briefs by ministries and parastatals. I said from the 28th of this month to that date has been given to departments and ministries to submit their hand over notes.

    “I remember somebody asked if there would be no vacuum if there is handover on May 28 and I replied that there will be no handing over on May 28.

    “Handing over and inauguration will hold on May 29. The President is not handing over power on May 28, he is handing over power on May 29.

    On the sacking of Inspector General of Police (IGP) Suleiman Abba by President Jonathan, she said the President acted within his power to appoint and sack.

    Allaying alleged fears by contractors to stop work due to uncertainty of settling their outstanding arrears with the coming change of government, she said government is continuous.

    “Government does not end with one president going out. It continues.” She stated.

  • Beyond May 29: as one ruling party  replaces another, five things to keep in mind

    Beyond May 29: as one ruling party replaces another, five things to keep in mind

    On May 29, 2015, the Jonathan administration will hand over to the Buhari administration and the APC will replace the PDP as the ruling party. As everyone knows, this will be a historic occasion in our country’s political history because it will mark the very first time that a ruling party at the centre of power in Abuja would have been replaced, not by a military coup but through relatively free and credible elections. There were profound doubts that this could ever happen in Nigeria but all things being equal, it will literally come to pass on the 29th of May.

    For a long time, this column has been asserting vigorously that an eventual replacement of the PDP by the APC through an electoral victory would be a replacement of the party, the government in power but not of the class in power, the ruling class. I lent my support to this eventuality by relentlessly calling for the defeat of the PDP, but in a decidedly critical spirit. This is because history abundantly teaches us that when a ruling class throws out a ruling party and replaces it with another ruling party, there will be changes which may or may not be significant but which will not lead to a fundamental reordering and redistribution of power and resources between the rulers and the ruled, the haves and the have-nots. With this historic caveat in mind, I offer the following FIVE points as things to keep in mind as we move with euphoria and hope towards May 29, 2015. As a final prefatory note to these five points, let me add that the first TWO will substantially move us away from the worst and most nation-wrecking aspects of the PDP era while the last THREE points will, in all probability, prove to be very daunting and perhaps even insuperable challenges to the APC as Nigeria’s new ruling party.

    One:

    We can expect and will probably get a great reduction in the levels of corruption, waste and squandermania of the PDP era, especially at its terminal point in the Jonathan administration. Nigerians expect it and the whole world waits for it; our country’s notoriety as one of the most corrupt nations on the planet has in the last three decades been truly global in scale. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala infamously asserted that corruption in Nigeria is so deep and wide, so endemic that it could be reduced by no more than 4%. Expect Buhari and the APC to do much better than that! Expect a reduction in the fleet of the presidential jets. Expect a massive reduction in the size of the entourage that used to accompany Jonathan and the other PDP presidents to international meetings. Even expect the wasteful sponsorship of private citizens to pilgrimages to Mecca and Jerusalem by state and federal governments to be discontinued, not gradually but “with immediate effect”.

    Do not expect, but don’t be surprised if Buhari moves to slash the astronomical salaries, allowances and emoluments paid to our law-makers, these being the highest in the world. Finally, don’t expect but do not be surprised if Buhari also moves to substantially reduce the recurrent expenditures of the state and federal governments while concomitantly increasing capital expenditures for development projects. Expect these changes in the scale of the culture of corruption and waste of the PDP era because these are the “easy” challenges that corruption poses to us as a people. Don’t expect that Buhari and the APC will take on, and if they do, will be able to successfully engage the structural aspects of corruption at the present time. For that, compatriots, you must wait for a future stage in the emergence and evolution of the APC as a new and truly progressive ruling party in our country – if that ever happens.

    Two

    Expect a noticeable change in the style and culture of governance in a post-PDP Nigeria. We are rid, hopefully forever, of the thugs, the nonentities and the glorified “area boys” who more or less represented the expressive face of power and sovereignty in the PDP era. The Fayoses, the Fani-Kayodes, the Obanikoros, the Orubebes, the Ubahs and the Okupes will go into the night and vanish from the seat of power in Abuja after May 29 and it is highly improbable that APC will promote its own large corps of thugs into the same kind of eminence that they had in the PDP era. It is highly unlikely that Aisha Buhari will be anything like Patience Jonathan, since in fact no Nigerian “First Lady” ever remotely approached the level of uncouth and maniacal love and display of power of by the infamous author of “dia ris god o”.

    The new rulers are no saints; indeed, many of them decamped from the moral sinkholes of the PDP only at the very last moment and so they carry with them the miasmic scent of the ordure within which they wallowed for so long in the defeated ruling party. But don’t expect the level of barefaced, cynical lying and deceitfulness of Jonathan himself, the chieftains of the PDP and the official and unofficial spokesmen of the party and the government. We will not get from the APC ringing declarations that millions of jobs are being created while, in fact, scores of millions of our youths are jobless. Hopefully too, we will not get from Buhari and the APC the level of impunity with which the PDP responded to the revelations of the Ekiti-Gate scandal, an impunity which I converted to the phrase, “wetin una fit do?” from Nigerian Pidgin. We are unlikely to get true bourgeois or even traditional African civility with the coming into power of the new ruling party, but at least we will not have a new breed of neo-fascist megalomaniacs in Aso Rock.

    Three    

                   The change in the relationship between the incumbent president and the presidency as an institution will not change much if at all in the months and years after May 29. This is because the APC does not present us with a meaningful departure from the degeneration that has completely overwhelmed political parties and the party system in Nigeria in the last three or four decades. Perhaps the most consequential effect of this decay is the fact that incumbent presidents in our country since the end of military dictatorships in 1999 have all had far greater power and authority than both the ruling party and the presidency as an institution. This highly personalized and patrimonial structure of governance, this extreme concentration of power, authority and patronage in one man will not change significantly under the APC, unless of course the party undergoes a profound transformation from its origins and antecedents. I may be wrong, but nothing that the APC has said and done so far convinces me that this will happen. The only slightly hopeful portent that we have is the fact that there are a few genuinely bright and humanistic thinkers and visionaries in the party. But their ranks within the party are too thin, their critical mass too insubstantial.

    Perchance Buhari will smile more often than he did as a military dictator; perchance he will listen more to his advisers and be more accountable to the populace than he was when he governed as an unelected, absolutist ruler. But such hopes rest dangerously on the unspoken and unacknowledged acceptance of the supremacy of the president over the presidency and the ruling party. This is more or less a feudal, pseudo-bourgeois conception and practice of democracy. The big question here is: will Nigerian democracy move into the modern bourgeois or post-bourgeois age under the APC?

    There is also the feeling that with Buhari’s victory, power has returned, so to speak, to the North having stayed in the South for more than a decade since the return to formal civilian democracy in 1999. Coupled with this is the fact that one of the three historic power blocs in the country, the Southeast, is largely absent from the electoral plurality that enabled the political victory of the APC over the PDP. If the party system remains unreformed, if the president remains supreme over the ruling party and the presidency, and if the presidency itself remains unreconstructed, these two particular issues will prove extremely fraught for the peaceful, united and equitable functioning of democracy in the post-PDP period.

    Four

                   Ultimately, everything comes down to genuine and far-reaching economic and social reforms in the post-PDP era. The most apparent and urgent site of these reforms pertains to the complete overhaul of our infrastructures, with special regard for the generation and distribution of power and the construction and maintenance of good, motorable roads across the length and breadth of the country. Don’t we all dream of the day when modernity would have finally taken root in our country and power would be reliably and affordably available to all our peoples?

    Beyond such fond dreams, infrastructural transformation in the power and transportation sectors of the economy can act as the ultimate guarantor of job, food and health security for the vast majority of our peoples beyond the narrow circles of the economic and political elites. In other words, beyond the inherent and incalculable benefits of complete and effective electrification of all our towns and cities, all our villages and hamlets, cheap and available power can and should act as the engine of growth and development for the entire West Africa region.

    The great obstacles to this potential are the relentless looting and the squandermania through which “legal” and illegal massive transfers of the bulk of our national or collective wealth are made to the private coffers of the few at the expense of the vast majority of our peoples. The classic economic term for this is primitive accumulation. Can the APC as a ruling party historically take Nigeria and its economy outside and beyond primitive accumulation? This question is not as abstract as it seems. Posed differently and concretely, the question asks us to wonder when the day will come when the vast majority of our men and women of great wealth will make their fortunes from genuine and productive entrepreneurial activities and not from legal and illegal handouts from government. No policy statement, no vision of economic growth and development that I have personally read of or heard about from the policy wonks and spokesmen of new ruling party indicates that the APC recognizes that the ‘legal”, structural forms of corruption are just as harmful and condemnable as  the illegal, sleazy and much talked about forms.

    Five

              Nigeria in the post-PDP era will command respectful and beneficial attention from the oil conglomerates working in our extractive industries and the world of global capitalism in general if and when our oil resources are converted into engines of growth and development in our country and in our region of the African continent. In the short run, the inanities of the PDP era will perhaps be overcome and both our trading partners and the world at large will stop taking advantage of our self-inflicted weaknesses while staring in mocking unbelief at the scale of our rulers’ corruptibility and mediocrity. But at this point in time, it is a debatable proposition whether under our new ruling party we will become one of the national economic powerhouses in Africa and the developing world, one of the truly just and egalitarian bourgeois or post-bourgeois democracies on the planet.

    In the weeks and months ahead, this column will return in greater detail to each of these five points. Meanwhile, let us hope that May 29 will at least lead to the eradication of the worst features of the long misrule of the PDP at the centre of power in our country.

    Biodun Jeyifo

    bjeyifo@fas.harvard.edu

  • May 29 stands, says Jonathan

    May 29 stands, says Jonathan

    Despite the postponement of the 2015 general elections from February to March and April, President Goodluck Jonathan as insisted that May 29th handover date is Sacrosanct.

    Jonathan, in a statement by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Dr. Reuben Abati, appealed to all stakeholders to accept the adjustment of the election dates by INEC in good faith.

    Urging politicians not to make statements that may overheat the polity, he said it is time to show understanding and support INEC.

    The statement reads: “Following the adjustment of the dates for the 2015 general elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from February 14 and 28 to March 28 and April 11, yesterday, President Goodluck Jonathan has reassured the nation of his commitment to the sanctity of May 29, 2015 as the terminal date of his first term in office.

    “He strongly reaffirms that May 29 is, has been, and will remain sacrosanct.

    “The President appeals to all stakeholders to accept the adjustment of the election dates by INEC in good faith, as the electoral body has a responsibility to conduct credible elections in which every Nigerian of voting age is afforded the opportunity to exercise their civic right without any form of hindrance.”

  • Maximum leader, minimal democracy

    Maximum leader, minimal democracy

    Nigerians are loud, opinionated and impatient. Ordinarily, those traits should make for a vibrant and fascinating democratic adventure where freedom of expression and choice, as well as transparency in public affairs would take root.

    But for a people who are quick on the draw when expressing their views, recent events are evidence that we would also be content with a system of governance where a maximum ruler lays down the law and his loyal subjects fall obediently in line.

    Over the last two weeks we’ve been celebrating democracy with two symbolic dates. May 29 speaks to an uncommon longevity of civil rule – an unbroken run of 14 years. June 12 reminded us of the subversion of the very ideal we claim to hanker for.

    How interesting that the celebrations took place in the shadow of the bitter battle to elect a new leadership for the influential Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF). While it was fun for a while reducing what happened to a David and Goliath contest in which an increasingly overbearing president received his comeuppance at the hands of a Lilliputian governor, there are deeper issues at play here.

    Thirty-five governors locked themselves in a room and willingly subjected themselves to a democratic contest. When the dust settled, two “chairmen” emerged in a contest that could only produce one! The winner had a majority of 19 votes; the other claimant had a majority of pre-polling endorsements but only 16 votes.

    How telling that 20 years after General Ibrahim Babangida and his military co-conspirators annulled the results of the June 12, 1993 election, Nigerians are still being made to endure a brazen attempt to annul what was a clear-cut victory by Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi.

    Many governors who until now had been posturing as democrats have been exposed as they sought to deny what had happened by explaining that there had never been an election in the NGF, or that the polling should never have been filmed.

    Today, everyone has a version of the history of forum; how it had always chosen its leadership by consensus. One wonders where all the historians were in the run-up to the election. How come none of these custodians of the NGF folklore never piped up with a word of dissent all those months when it was clear that the next leader would emerge through balloting?

    One of the most disgraceful aspects of the NGF fiasco is the meddling by President Goodluck Jonathan. Following the defeat of his preferred candidate, Plateau State Governor, Jonah Jang, the president and his aides have sought to distance him from the mess. But then there he was recognising and addressing the “loser” as chairman of the governors forum at some Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) event in Abuja.

    What sort of example is that? Of course, he had never hidden the fact that he was opposed to Amaechi’s return. But then he’s president of Nigeria, not of the PDP and ought to elevate himself above certain things because of the exalted position he holds.

    When it suits them, those around Jonathan are quick to flay the opposition for “playing politics with everything.” They are also known to deliver lectures pointing out that elections had been held and won, and now was the time for governing, not politicking. That sermon was clearly lost on Jonathan who ought to have done everything he could to insulate himself – at least publicly – from the bitter politics of the NGF.

    By endorsing Jang and refusing to recognize the man who won the election on the night, Jonathan and the PDP have behaved in the same fashion as those who refused to accept the electoral outcome of June 12, 1993. The ‘annulers’ equally had reasons for refusing to concede.

    If Jonathan and his henchmen have refused to lead and set an example with something as simple as the NGF election, why should they expect the opposition accept any electoral outcome that isn’t favourable to them? In the same breath why would anyone believe that PDP, given their conduct in this instance, will accept anything short of victory in 2015? Put simply the bane of Nigerians elections which is mutual suspicion of the participants and the electoral umpire has only just been tragically reinforced.

    In the aftermath of the collapse of the PDP strategy to impose its man on the NGF, the party has gone overboard as it sought to exact revenge against the “traitors” who torpedoed its agenda. Both Amaechi and Sokoto State Governor, Magatarkada Wamakko, are out on their ears – the latter suspended for the most flimsy of reasons: refusing to take party chairman, Bamanga Tukur’s calls.

    Whatever may be the sins of these two men, it is evident that their greatest fault is refusal to toe the party line one hundred percent. In democratic practice there is certainly a place for enforcing the supremacy of the party. But truly democratic parties also allow room for dissent otherwise they would be no different from the old Communist parties in the USSR, China or Cuba. I may add that this flaw is not a failing of only the PDP.

    So instead of beginning to build a democratic culture with robust parties with internal traditions of vibrant and open disputation, what we now see is debate being driven underground. Parties are being split along the lines of ultra loyalists and the band of Judases.

    Debate and dissent are now dangerous foreign bodies to be stamped out at all cost. In this setting, the president or whoever is the maximum ruler at federal or state level simply lays down the law, and the rest of the cadres fall in line. In other words, the president has become the party.

    Amidst all the sentimentality that has trailed the NGF polls, the incongruity of trying to create of a new maximum ruler in a democratic environment seems lost on even the most sober of us. I have heard very intelligent people argue that governors had become too powerful and needed to have their wings clipped.

    Let’s hold this thought for a moment: if the governors are less powerful than they are now, the president simply becomes a Frankenstein monster no one can rein in. Even with the checks and balances in our system a reckless occupant of Aso Rock can unsettle the leadership of the states and National Assembly. Things even out when all sides realise there’s a balance of terror.

    In the end having these various centers of power is not so bad after all. Decisions can be arrived at on a more consensual basis. The different tendencies in the country would be carried along, and people wouldn’t feel too alienated. But beware the fake democracy where one man’s word is law.