The much touted Vision 20:2020 initiative by the federal government aimed at achieving sustainable socio-economic growth for the country, analysts have argued, remains a tall order owing to a combination of factors, Bukola Afolabi reports
As Nigeria counts down to year 2020, there are concerns as to whether the nation will achieve its objectives of being among the top 20 economies in the world by the year under reference. Such concerns are justifiable owing to the parlous state of the nation’s economy.
It would be recalled that the federal government had been campaigning that by 2020, Nigeria will reach the milestone of one of the best 20 economies.
Still a forlorn hope
This year, Nigeria’s latest rebasing places the country’s economy as the best in Africa, overtaking that of South Africa. Though the rebasing generated applause in some quarters, the generality of Nigerians are of the opinion that it is not a true reflection of the state of the nation’s economy as millions of Nigerians still live in poverty.
Many have pointed to the epileptic power supply, high rate of employment and lack of infrastructure which have drawn the country back. As a result, many doubted if the country would ever realise its ambition.
To these analysts, the Vision 20:2020 is similar to the ones embarked upon by the government prior to year 2000 on the provision of housing.
Tagged ‘Housing for all by 2000’, the government had promised that it would provide houses for all Nigerians by the year 2000. Fourteen years after the promise, many Nigerians still lack good accommodation while some sleep in the open on the streets.
Though various government-built housing estates have sprung up in recent times, however, high cost of renting such houses have place them beyond the reach of the poor. Many of such houses cost millions of naira or dollars to rent them, thereby depriving average Nigerians the opportunity to own a home.
While serving as the Minister and Chairman of National Planning Commission, Shamsuddeen Usman had also expressed doubts about the possibility of Nigeria being among the top 20 most developed economies by the year 2020.
In one of his briefings with the national leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in Abuja on the activities of his ministry, Usman said though the country was number 44 when the documentation of Vision 20:2020 commenced, he would be proud if it rises to number 25 by 2020.
“Where were we in 2009? We were number 44. By the end of 2011, we were number 36, this is progress. We made quite a lot of progress. In other areas, we have not. I don’t want any of you to meet me in 2020 and say you are the one telling us that we are going to be among the top 20,” the minister had said.
He had also said that “But what I am saying is that even if we are not among the 20 by that time, we were number 44 in 2009. If by 2020 we are number 25, I will be a very proud man. The reason is because we are consciously moving and doing all the necessary things to move up there.
“It’s not saying we must be there. What it’s saying is if we get there, then these are the actions we must need to take as a country. We must do this and that in governance, in human development, in infrastructure. That is what the document is saying and we are actually taking those steps and if we are, what progress are we making?”
Like every Nigerian, Usman had also expressed concern about the inefficient power supply which has bedevilled the country over the years; blaming it as the major reason the country has not witnessed progress economically. He opined that unless the power sector is reformed, the country’s goal of Vision 20:2020 might not be realised.
A rudderless vision
In the view of Bashorun Jaiye Kofolaran Randle, Chairman/Chief Executive, JK Randle Professional Services Chartered Accountants, though Vision 20: 2020 is a huge challenge, it offers the nation an excellent opportunity to redeem itself.
Speaking in an interview with The Nation recently, the multi-disciplinarian, who attributed the country’s economic woes to poor leadership, said a lot needs to be done to put the economy back on track.
“There are lots of policy issues in our country. You can see the way we have started the story in the middle whereas we should have started it from the beginning. In other words, if you want to build houses, you have to know how many you want to build and how many you can afford to build and the time frame, so you can’t say you are going to build in one year what by all rational judgment would take five years, because all you do would end up in creating frustrations and anguish. So, you have to factor in land acquisition, the quality of contractor, legal frame work, how you are going to fund it and how the beneficiaries are going to maintain it; otherwise, you can build the houses and, within five or six years, it becomes a different story,” he said.
Waxing philosophical, he said: “You have to take care of the linkages. If you build a house, somebody has to fund the furniture; otherwise it will just end up as a mere shelter as opposed to proper home and of course whoever is going to live in it must have adequate economic activity, namely employment to be able to enjoy the house you are providing. That is one example. You can even extend it to roads as the roads have to be properly designed and you cannot begin to build in the middle of rainy season and expect to build roads that will last. The roads need to be properly designed with proper drainages and, of course, you don’t build for the day but for the future. So, there are myriads of examples you can use.”
On the prospects of attaining the much touted vision, he said: “The first thing is to appreciate that when you talk about 20:2020 Vision and you say you want to be one of the 20 most prosperous economies in the world, then the first thing we have to do is to list all the countries in the world from one to whatever and then see which country is right at number 20 and look at the living standard of that country. I suspect that country would probably be Belgium. Look at the GDP of Belgium, the country probably has a population of maybe 16 million but its GDP is about 26 times of that of Nigeria. So, that has to be the benchmark and you have to appreciate that while you are growing trying to get into number 20, Belgium is not going to stand still. So, it is going to be a really tough race to catch up with Belgium or indeed any other country. Therefore, it is not enough to just go by rhetorics, it requires a lot of hard work and it means that the process is not entirely that of the elite, everybody has to feel that the benefits would accrue to him from being in the first 20. What is the point in being number 20 in the world when we are still as poor as we were before battling with the issues of housing, electricity, water, insecurity, crimes and massive unemployment.
So, it becomes self defeating. In essence, everything has to be thought out and I think in fairness to those who are behind Vision 20:20-20, they are making rigorous attempt to adopt that approach, but the issue of rolling plans must be taken seriously.
“We used to have rolling plans 20-30-40 years ago but suddenly we stopped following the rolling plans. If you have a rolling plan, it should inform what is put in your budget and you build consensus around the rolling plan and that is what is reflecting in your budget and from your budget you then move to implementation. But, unfortunately, what has been happening is that we suddenly find that we jump into a project and you don’t find it in the budget or it may not even be in the rolling plan.”
More questions, few answers
As a result, questions have been raised on the way forward for Nigeria if it is to achieve its goal.
“Generally, we were impressed by the outcome of the first three years of the first implementation plans towards the realisation of the Vision 2020,” said the Minister of Information, Labaran Maku, during one of the weekly meetings of the Federal Executive Council (FEC).
He said this at the reviewing of the federal government performance towards the realisation of the Vision 20:2020 goal.
“We deliberated on the achievements, the challenges and we raised questions and issues on the plan which is then taken back because of the questions and issues raised on the data, plans and statistics,” he said. “Generally, we were impressed by the outcome of the first three years of the first implementation plans towards the realisation of the Vision 2020.
“We were impressed with overall macro-economic performance in the first three years, which indicated clearly that the Gross Domestic Product, GDP, has continued to grow at seven on the average.
“The statistics reveal clearly that exchange rate was steady between N150 and N160 to the dollar, with the GDP of $509.9 million, making Nigeria the largest economy in Africa,” he said.
Power critical to vision
Another suggestion for a way forward for Nigeria was echoed by the president of the German Federal Environment Agency, Jochen Flasbarth.
Flasbarth had lamented the 4000 megawatts the country is generating which he said is a clog in the wheel of Nigeria realising its objectives of Vision 20:2020.
“It is very obvious that with 4,000 MW of electricity, Nigeria will never reach the target of being among the top 20 economies of the world in 2020. So, Nigeria needs electricity through some fossil-based power plants. This could be achieved through renewable energy,” he said.
South African, Ghana model to the rescue
Echoing similar sentiments, the Managing Director of BOANAO Energy, Mr Ayodele David, also is of the opinion that the megawatts generated by the country is not enough if the country is to move forward and be one of the top 20 economies by 2020.
“If a country like South Africa with lesser population could be generating over 40,000 megawatts, I do not see reason Nigeria with a population of over 170million cannot generate over 50, 000 megawatts. No country can boost its economy if it does not have stable power supply. We all know that power is the major thing that makes an economy to grow because industries, companies, and many businesses rely on power supply. We are talking of Vision 20: 2020 when we are still battling with epileptic power supply,” he said.
He added: “Even the privatisation of Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) has not brought any improvement on the sector. Rather it has become worse than ever with increased bill. So there is need for the problem of electricity to be tackled before we can talk of becoming one of the top 20 economies in the world. Countries that are there did not get there overnight, they worked towards it. We have six years left and maybe, if proper things are put in place we might get there but I doubt it.”
If Nigeria is to attain its goal, it has to emulate South Africa in power generation, he stressed.
The electricity supply industries of Southern Africa are dominated by the state-owned utility of South Africa, ESKOM, which generates around two thirds of the electricity produced in the whole of Africa and is extending its transmission grid north into neighbouring sub-Saharan countries. The company provides about 95% of South Africa’s electrical power and more than 60% of Africa’s.
ESKOM, with a generating capacity of 35 200 MW from 20 power stations, is also one of the largest utilities in the world, and generates approximately 98% of South Africa’s electricity. Generation is primarily coal-fired, but also includes a nuclear power station at Koeberg, two gas turbine facilities, two conventional hydroelectric plants, and two hydroelectric pumped-storage stations. The company also owns and operates the national transmission system.
Nigeria also needs to emulate Ghana in the area of strengthening the economy. Ghana’s economy has been strengthened by a quarter century of relatively sound management, a competitive business environment, and sustained reductions in poverty levels. Ghana is well endowed with natural resources and agriculture accounts for roughly one-quarter of GDP and employs more than half of the workforce, mainly small landholders.
In 2009, Ghana signed a three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to improve macroeconomic stability, private sector competitiveness, human resource development, and good governance and civic responsibility. Sound macro-economic management along with higher prices for oil, gold and, cocoa helped sustain the country’s high GDP growth in 2008-12.
Flasbirth had suggested that Nigeria’s power supply should be decentralised while more attention should be paid to other sources of generating electricity such as coal, natural gas or petroleum (oil) to produce electricity.
According to him, Nigeria is endowed with so many natural resources that could be harnessed into alternative sources of energy, adding that the country’s abundant sun could be transformed into solar power, apart from the large body of water across the country, which could be a big source of bio-gas.
Citing the example of Germany, where the National Power Grid is the major source of power supply, he pointed out that all that Nigeria needs is the grid method, though costly and expensive to maintain.
If the natural sources could be harnessed, he said the grid would not be the only option, adding that for total power coverage of the country, the government should first of all consider bringing electricity down to the consumers from its source.
“To bring the electricity from where it is produced to where it is consumed, you need a grid. For Nigeria to develop fast, there is need for national grid. But, there are regions where it is much cheaper to invest in off-grid solutions, other than establishing a costly grid and maintenance of the grid costs a lot,” he said.
Likewise, the China Machinery Engineering Corporation, managers of Phase 2 of the Omotosho Power Plant, in Ondo State, said with the completion of the construction of 500MW plant, there would be improvement in electricity which would go a long way in helping the realisation of the goal
The Managing Director of the company, Liu Zhao-Long, said that all the four turbines are now functioning, after it was commissioned by President Goodluck Jonathan.
“We have finished work on Omotosho Phase 2. The four turbines are contributing 500MW to the national grid,” he said.
Likewise, an economist, Mr Tosin Ayinde, said the Vision 20: 2020 would be a dream come true if government pays attention to job creation, development of infrastructure and improvement in the power sector.
“I believe the goal can be realised within the next few years if the government puts the right thing in place. More jobs have to be created; infrastructures have to be developed while small scale businesses should be giving the opportunity to thrive because they are the major provider of employment.”
A funny recant
At the FEC meeting, Labaran Maku further said the ongoing security challenges facing the country could be a hindrance to the realisation of the goal as money meant for other projects are being channelled towards solving the security crisis. He also said Nigeria achieved an inflation rate of eight per cent on the average, adding that inflation rate fell from 13 per cent during the period to settle at eight per cent.
“The president has run the nation with the greatest level of difficulties,” he said. Yes, (former Head of State Yakubu) Gowon confronted the civil war, but the kind of crises we have faced in this insurgency with some Nigerians breaking pipe lines etc. But when we see him, we see confidence.
“Look at the money we spent fighting insurgency in the north east, this country would have witnessed a growth rate of up to 10 per cent of the GDP, if it were not for the security challenges,” he said.
With the above challenges and efforts being made to solve them, the question still remains whether government can realise its ambition this time around. However, the answer remains in the womb of time.
