Tag: National Bureau of Statistics

ERSTWHILE Statistician-General of the Federation, Yemi Kale, has listed the five sectors that would drive Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026.

The list includes Information and Communication Technology ICT and digital services, construction and infrastructure, energy and refining, particularly downstream activities; agro-processing, and services.

The former Director-General of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) made the projections on Tuesday at Firstbank’s 2026 Nigeria economic outlook themed: ‘The Great Recalibration: Mastering Resilience in an Era of Asynchronous Growth’.

Kale, who is the current Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at AfreximBank projected that ICT and digital services would be the fastest-growing, driven by fintech, e-commerce, broadband expansion, and maturing tech ecosystems.

He said construction and infrastructure will benefit from public investment and rising private participation, while energy and refining — especially in the post-Dangote refinery environment — will reduce fuel imports and create petrochemical linkages.

Agro-processing, Kale said, would gain from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) integration, improved logistics and emerging processing clusters in rice, cassava, cocoa, and dairy.

He said moderating inflation would upport recovery in services such as retail, transport, tourism, real estate, and professional services.

The economist said the sectors would shape a more stable and diversified growth path in 2026, helping Nigeria shift from volatility towards sustained and broad-based growth.

Kale, however, warned that Nigeria must strengthen its value chains and invest in technology to build resilience.

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He said although Nigeria records growth across multiple sectors, too few deliver meaningful productivity or global competitiveness.

He noted that policy discussions around diversification often miss the point by focusing on revenue expansion or tax base widening rather than fixing the structural constraints to productive growth.

“We are structurally diversified, but not productively diversified. In other words, we produce a lot, but too little of it is complex value-added or tradable, and this is where our policy often misses the point,” Kale said.

“When policymakers talk of diversification, it is really frequently interpreted by policymakers as expanding revenue sources or widening the tax base, rather than addressing the true constraints to productive growth, such as poor infrastructure, unreliable power, weak logistics, issues with skills gaps, limited credit access for SMEs.

“To build real resilience, Nigeria must move from extractive dependence to productive competitiveness, which it hasn’t done yet, and to do this by strengthening value chains, supporting industrial clusters, and investing in human capital, technology, and infrastructure.”

Nigeria’s trade surplus suffered a 10.36 percent decline in Q3/25, the latest foreign trade report for Q3 of 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has shown.

According to the report, the figure declined from N7.4 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter to N6.69 trillion in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025.

The figure indicates a decrease of 10.36 percent.

A trade surplus occurs when a country’s exports exceed imports.

The NBS, in the report disclosed that Nigeria’s exports totalled N22.81 trillion while imports stood at N16.12 trillion.

The bureau said total trade was N38.93 trillion in the period examined.

“Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at ₦38,936.55 billion in Q3, 2025. This represents an increase of 8.71% over the value; ₦35,818.35 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024 and an increase by 2.36% compared to the value recorded in the preceding quarter (₦38,037.52 billion),” the NBS said.

“In the quarter under review, exports accounted for 58.59% of total trade with a value of ₦22,813.57 billion, showing an increase of 11.08% over the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 (₦20,537.17 billion) and by 0.28% compared to the value recorded in Q2, 2025 (₦22,750.74 billion).”

The NBS said crude oil remained Nigeria’s major exported commodity in Q3 of 2025 with a value of N12.8 trillion, representing 56.14 percent of total exports.

The report said the value of non-crude oil exports stood at N10 trillion, accounting for 43.86 percent of total exports — with non-oil products contributing N2.99 trillion or 13.14 percent of total exports.

“Using the Standard International Trade Classification, the top-ranked group imports were “mineral fuels” with ₦5,154.78 billion representing 31.97% of total imports, this was followed by “machinery and transport equipment” with ₦4,250.48 billion or 26.36% of total imports and “Chemicals & related products” with ₦2,347.07 billion (14.56% of total imports),” the bureau said.

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The NBS said India was Nigeria’s top export destination in Q3, followed by Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy.

The report said the five countries collectively accounted for 38.34 percent of the value of total exports in Q3.

“During the quarter under review, the main export destination was India with a value of ₦2,259.05 billion or 9.90% of total exports, followed by exports to Spain with ₦1,829.71 billion or 8.02% of total exports, France with ₦1,659.12 billion or 7.27% of total export,” the report said.

“The Netherlands with ₦1,542.82 billion or 6.76% of total exports, and exports to Italy with goods valued at ₦1,455.24 billion representing 6.38% of total exports.”

The data bureau said China was a top partner in terms of imports.

China’s trade was valued at N4.78 trillion, representing 29.68 percent of total imports.

“This was followed by imports from the United States of America with ₦3,218.67 billion representing 19.96% of total imports, India with imports valued at ₦1,378.21 billion or 8.55% of total imports,” the bureau said.

The report added that imports from the United Arab Emirates reached N790.66 billion (4.90 percent of total imports), while goods from Belgium were valued at N690.22 billion (4.28 percent of total imports).

The country’s food market saw its sharpest price drop in over a year as key staples including beans, garri, maize and tomatoes recorded double-digit declines in September, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The trend marks an early signal that ongoing government interventions, especially those targeting food logistics and supply chain bottlenecks, are beginning to filter into market prices.

The NBS confirmed the development in its latest Selected Food Prices Watch for September 2025, stating that food commodities that have been driving household spending pressures for months “witnessed a slight decrease in price” across multiple states and geopolitical zones.

At the centre of the shift is brown beans, a major protein source for low- and middle-income households, which saw the steepest fall. The Bureau reported a 33.70 per cent year-on-year decline, with the average price sliding from N2,738.59 in September 2024 to N1,815.76 in September 2025. Month-on-month, beans also dipped by 1.74 per cent.

“The average price of 1kg of brown beans decreased by 33.70 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

“On a month-on-month basis, beans also decreased by 1.74 per cent, the NBS stated.”

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White garri, another widely consumed staple, also recorded a significant 25.51 per cent drop year-on-year, falling from N1,170.25 to N871.78, while maize prices declined by 16.57 per cent over the same period. Month-on-month, both commodities posted further contractions of 6.52 per cent and 6.56 per cent, respectively.

Tomatoes, a key driver of food inflation earlier in the year, saw a 10.56 per cent year-on-year decline, averaging N1,279.84 per kilogram.

The NBS said: “On a month-on-month basis, the price decreased by 0.45 per cent.”

However, the report revealed price inconsistencies across categories. While staples became cheaper, boneless beef saw a 21.79 per cent surge year-on-year, climbing to N6,861.25, though monthly prices held flat. Local rice also inched up 1.99% year-on-year to N1,952.94, despite a marginal monthly dip.

On regional distribution, the price disparity remained stark. Enugu and Ebonyi continued to top the charts for high commodity prices, with Enugu recording the most expensive beans (N2,337.58) and rice (N2,385.73), while Ebonyi posted the highest garri (N1,297.22) and tomatoes (N2,301.38). In contrast, Yobe, Taraba and Plateau recorded the lowest prices across the same categories.

Analysts say the sharp declines in staple prices may indicate early market response to Federal Executive Council directives issued in September.

President Bola Tinubu had mandated a ministerial committee to “further crash prices of food items by ensuring the safe passage of products through various routes across the country.” Improvement in interstate movement, logistics security and cost of transport are expected to reinforce the downward price movement in the coming months.

Zone-based analysis also revealed that the South-East consistently recorded the highest prices across most commodities, reflecting structural market inefficiencies and dependence on long-distance supply chains. Meanwhile, the North-West and North-East maintained the lowest price levels, supported by proximity to large farming belts.

Economists note that the trend offers potential short-term relief to households but caution that commodity price volatility remains sensitive to fuel prices, exchange rates and climate-driven production disruptions.

Cooking gas prices in the country hit an unprecedented high this year, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In its latest Price Watch report, the NBS said the average price of refilling a 5kg cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) climbed to N8,167.43 in May 2025, while the 12.5kg refill shot up to N20,709.11 – both representing the steepest costs recorded this year.

This marks a 3.57 per cent increase in the 5kg refill price from N7,885.60 in April 2025, and a 2.18 per cent rise for the 12.5kg refill from the N20,268.06 recorded the previous month. Year-on-year, the May 2025 prices represent a 10.10 per cent and 32.52 per cent spike respectively, compared to the same period in 2024.

The price build-up reflects a steady month-on-month climb since the start of the year. According to the NBS data, in January 2025, the 5kg refill was sold at N7,040.94, increasing slightly to N7,072.10 in February, then N7,322.49 in March, and N7,885.60 in April, before hitting the current all-time high of N8,167.43 in May.

Similarly, the 12.5kg refill started at N17,432.89 in January, rose to N17,492.42 in February, followed by N18,456.24 in March, N20,268.06 in April, and now N20,709.11 in May, underscoring a steady rise in LPG costs.

“The average retail price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of cooking gas increased from N7,885.60 in April 2025 to N8,167.43 in May 2025. On a year-on-year basis, it rose by 10.10 per cent,” the Bureau stated.

“For 12.5kg, the price increased by 2.18 percent month-on-month and 32.52 per cent year-on-year, reaching N20,709.11 in May 2025,” it added.

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At the state level, Abia recorded the highest average price for 5kg at N9,181.20, followed by Ebonyi (N9,177.32) and Rivers (N9,174.40). Oyo posted the lowest at N7,116.49, with Niger and Plateau closely behind at N7,142.07 and N7,177.10 respectively.

For the 12.5kg refill, Delta topped the chart with an average price of N23,356.46, followed by Abia at N22,953.01 and Ebonyi at N22,943.30. Yobe recorded the lowest average at N18,500, while Lagos and Kebbi posted relatively lower prices at N18,536.00 and N18,606.60.

A zonal breakdown showed households in the South-South paid the most, with an average of N8,760.51 for 5kg and N22,026.26 for 12.5kg. The South-East followed closely. On the lower end, the North-Central recorded the lowest 5kg refill average at N7,759.38, while the North-West paid the least for 12.5kg at N19,944.10.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) in a statement said the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.97 percent in May 2025, down from 23.71 percent in April 2025.

This marks a positive, albeit modest, new shift in the country’s inflation trajectory after several months of persistent increases the statement stated.

LCCI Director-General, Dr. Chinyere Almona, argued that the marginal decline may have been driven by the consistent monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), including interest rate adjustments and liquidity control mechanisms.

However, she explained  that this improvement must be viewed cautiously, considering prevailing structural risks and looming food production and distribution shocks.

She maintained that the the recent spate of herdsmen-farmers clashes in the middle-belt region and flooding disasters are negative signals capable of limiting food harvest this year.

According to her Logistics and supply chain risks also loom on the back of the current escalations in the Middle East and the deadlocked ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.

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She said: ‘Importing fuel and other products may become more expensive as oil prices have risen due to unabating tensions and trade wars. These shocks pose significant risks to food availability and prices, which could drive food inflation — an essential component of the headline inflation index — in the third and fourth quarters of 2025’.

She recommended a coordinated mix of fiscal and monetary policy actions, including reforms in the oil and gas sector. She stressed the need to  sustain Naira for crude and the mandated crude supply to local refineries.

 Almona also canvassed the need for CBN to maintain prudent monetary policy while improving credit access to productive sectors, especially agriculture and manufacturing, to stimulate supply-side responses to inflation. The stoppage of government ways and means provisions should be sustained no matter the pressure she added.

The LCCI  boss called for an urgent need for the government to scale up support for dry season farming, irrigation infrastructure, and mechanization to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture.

She also asked that government must remain focused on dealing with the challenges around food movement from the farms to the cities. Address inefficiencies in transporting goods particularly food from rural to urban markets can help lower market prices and reduce post-harvest losses.

She advised that government spending should prioritize critical sectors with high inflation pass-through, such as food, energy, and transport, while eliminating leakages and enhancing social safety nets for vulnerable households.

In her words: ‘While the easing inflation rate is a welcome development, Nigeria must not lose momentum in addressing the structural drivers of inflation. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry urges the government to act decisively in tackling insecurity, investing in resilient agricultural infrastructure, and improving policy coordination to ensure the current progress becomes sustainable and inclusive’ she stated.”