Tag: NBS

The Statistician General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran yesterday revealed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is rebasing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), noting it is to reflect of the current structure of the country’s economy.

He made this known during the Sensitization Workshop on the Rebasing of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Prices Index (CPI) Organised by BudgiT, Abuja.

He said the efforts at rebasing the economic indicators are not to please anyone but to ensure accurate measurements.

His words: “As we finalize this process of the rebasing of our GDP and CPI estimates, I want to highlight this key point.

“The rebasing exercise is designed to ensure that our economic indicators accurately reflect the current structure of our economy, incorporating new and emerging sectors, updating our consumption baskets, and refining our data collection methods.

“It is not to suit the expectations of anyone or entity, but simply to measure accurately in line with the global standards and practice. This is our responsibility as the official producer of data in Nigeria.”

He however noted that through the sensitization workshop, the NBS has opened dialogue with all stakeholders including Civil Society Organizations (CSOs). 

Seeking the stakeholders’ feedback, Adeniran said: “Your feedback and insights are invaluable to us, and we are dedicated to addressing any concerns you may have regarding this exercise or any other for that matter.

“This workshop is a platform for knowledge sharing, discussion, and collaboration. You can rest assured that your inputs and suggestions will be taken on board and incorporated where necessary.”

 He said the NBS in line with its statutory mandate, has for some time, been engaged in the process of these two rebasing exercises – for GDP and CPI. 

According to him, while the two indicators and their computation procedures are highly technical, they however affect the daily livelihoods of citizens across the country, particularly the most vulnerable. 

He stressed that the measurement of the indicators is critical to ensuring that government, policymakers, CSOs, and all other users, have the accurate and most recent numbers, to enable them to track the impact of their policies and programs, as well as their’ implications on the citizens.

Continuing, Adeniran said: “The rebasing is a vital exercise that ensures these economic indicators (GDP and CPI) are current and accurate reflections of the economic realities on the ground. As economies evolve, new industries emerge, and consumption patterns shift, it becomes imperative to update our statistical measures to capture these changes. 

“Rebasing our GDP and CPI allows us to align with these transformations, providing a more precise and relevant picture of Nigeria’s economic landscape.

Read Also: NBS: Average petrol price reduced by 2.06 per cent in December

“This process is foundational to informed policymaking, strategic planning, and effective governance; hence, it is one exercise that the NBS is conducting with significant importance and professionalism.

“If Nigeria is to make the desired progress and development, it is imperative that NBS, as the official producer of data, plays its role adequately in providing timely, accurate, and reliable statistics to inform all users, be it users in the public sector, or in the private or third sector. 

“This will enable them to design, plan, and implement policies and programs that will lead to the attainment of national objectives for the benefit of Nigerians. 

“Our mindset in undertaking both critical assignments is in tandem with the United Nations fundamental principles of official statistics, particularly Principle 3 which deals with Accountability and Transparency.

 “This approach essentially means that our processes are open, collaborative, and rigorous, making sure that, as much as possible, we leave no stone unturned in our bid to measure and report accurately, the size of the economy and the level of price changes.” 

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced that its official website has been hacked.

The bureau disclosed this on its X handle on Wednesday.

The Bureau in its post on X said it was working to recover the website where it publishes crucial statistics concerning key sectors in the country.

Read Also: NBS survey: N2.2tr ransom paid in one year

The post read, “This is to inform the public that the NBS Website has been hacked and we are working to recover it. Please disregard any message or report posted until the website is fully restored. Thank you.”

Checks by the Nation on Thursday morning reveal that the Agency’s website www.nigerianstat.gov.ng was unsuccessful. It says “the site can’t be reached.”

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), a think tank, has defended two recently released reports by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Nigeria’s latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate. 

The defence comes amid criticisms from some quarters seeking to discredit the reports, which were largely positive, just weeks after the same critics had praised a general household survey by the NBS that painted a grim picture of the national economy. 

In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that there was no reason to accept one report while rejecting the other.

It said: “The NBS reported a drop in the nation’s unemployment rate from 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 to 4.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2024. This figure suggests that only about four people out of every 100 Nigerians are currently unemployed, a positive indication of a reduction in the nation’s unemployment data.

“Also, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased to 3.46 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2024. This growth rate is higher than the 2.54 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2023 and the 3.19 per cent growth in the second quarter of 2024.

“Apparently, to the doubters, these figures were too good to be true. The social media space and the community of critics became unrelenting in questioning the basis of the data; some dismissed them as “voodoo data” and “propaganda figures.””

“We find this growing culture of brazen repudiation of NBS data rather inappropriate, especially when, as often, the refutation is not grounded in facts and logic. One critic dismissed the second quarter unemployment data because, in his logic, the unemployment rate could not have decreased while factories closed and businesses reported unsold inventories. Another criticized the methodology used to arrive at the figure on the ground that it lacks transparency.

“We submit that this is the crux of the matter. Most critics and commentators lack an understanding of the methodology that foregrounds the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS), even though the NBS has adopted and deployed it since the first quarter of 2023.

“In the first quarter of 2023, NBS adopted the International Labour Organization (ILO) approved and recommended methodology to measure employment and unemployment per term. The updated method aims to conform with global standards by providing a more accurate picture of the labour market in the context of the nation’s socio-demographic profile.

“In line with ILO guidelines, NBS defines employed persons as those in paid employment who have worked for at least one hour in the last seven days. This measurement contrasts the previous method, where an employed person must have worked for at least 20 hours within seven days to qualify as employed.

“However, the one hour in the last seven days labour engagement metric effectively enlarges the basis of employment measurement to include, in this case, Nigerians who are working for themselves. This expansion reflects the 71.2 million Nigerians said to be working for themselves. In contrast, just 12.96 million others work for wages out of 88.9 million in the country’s labour force, as data in the second quarter of the NBS labour force survey show.”

The policy group is of the view that the high rate of self-employed people captured in the report had a positive effect on the overall picture of employed Nigerians.

Read Also: VAT hits N1.78 tr in Q3 2024 – NBS

“In developing countries like Nigeria, many workers outside urban areas work in agriculture, retail finance – Point of Sales (POS), and Transportation/logistics (commercial vehicle operators, artisans, etc.). 

“All these have one form of formal affiliation or the other with the Ministry of Labour and Employment through their registered unions and trade groups. The land distribution in these countries implies that the agricultural sector is dominated by self-employment on family farms, and the leading occupational choice is self-employment in farming versus non-farming, with only a tiny role for wage employment.

“This forms the basis of NBS labour survey methodology and justifies the inclusion of the vast number of self-employed Nigerians in the labour force and the segmentation of their labour engagements, which were not included in the old survey methodology.

“The labour data aligns with Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance data for the third quarter of 2024, which the NBS also released. According to the data, the economy expanded by 3.46 per cent overall, but the service sector mostly drove the growth.

“Like the labour force survey data, the GDP performance, which outperformed projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and other research institutions, was contrary to market expectations,” the policy group explained.”

IMPI also provided some insights into the role of the service sector in Nigeria’s GDP figure in the third quarter of 2024.

The group said: “We are delighted that the nation’s service sector has emerged as the lead sector of the economy. The three-sector model in economics divides economies into three sectors of activity: extraction of raw materials (primary), manufacturing (secondary), and service industries, which facilitate the transport, distribution, and sale of goods produced in the secondary sector (tertiary).

“The primary sector involves extracting raw materials from the earth, such as mining, forestry, or farming. The secondary sector involves manufacturing raw materials into goods, such as turning grains into pasta or trees into lumber. The tertiary sector, or the service sector, includes ICT, trade, and financial services.

“Though some experts have criticized the service sector’s contributions to the economy, historically, it has been the dominant segment of the Nigerian economy. It was the highest contributor to the national economy, at 53.58 per cent, in the third quarter of 2024, a decline from the 58.76 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2024. On average, the sector has contributed 50 per cent to Nigeria’s GDP over the last four years.

“The service sector is a key part of any economy’s development, and its role is growing. It is the most significant part of the global economy’s business activity and a major driver of economic growth, especially in developing economies.”

The policy think tank identified ICT as the main driver of the country’s GDP growth and urged the federal government to take more deliberate steps to grow the service sector of the economy.

“Indeed, a 10 per cent increase in mobile broadband penetration in Africa can increase GDP per capita by 2.5 per cent. A 10 per cent increase in internet penetration rate can increase real GDP per capita by 0.57 to 0.63 percentage points. Regarding the Nigerian economy’s actuals, the third quarter’s GDP growth of 6.78 per cent in telecommunications was robust, driven by expanding mobile and broadband penetration, indicating sustained demand for telecom services despite economic challenges.

“With the right investments and policy frameworks, ICT has the potential to solidify its role as Nigeria’s economic growth engine, which has the propensity to propel the country toward a more digital and connected future.

“The importance of ICT in GDP growth is further evidenced by the N2.55 trillion paid in taxes in the first half of this year by foreign digital companies operating in the country, including Google, Microsoft, and TikTok,” it added. 

…N1.77tr CIT

In the third quarter of 2024 (Q3 2024) Value Added Tax (VAT) rose by 14.16 per cent to N1.78 trillion.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed this in its report titled: “VAT Q3 2024.”

The report recalled that it rose from the N1.56 trillion of the second quarter of 2024.

NBS said: “On the aggregate, Value Added Tax (VAT) for Q3 2024 was reported at N1.78 trillion, showing a growth rate of 14.16% on a quarter-on-quarter basis from N1.56 trillion in Q2 2024.”

The document said local payments recorded were N922.87 billion, Foreign VAT payments were N448.85 billion, while import VAT contributed N410.62 billion in Q3 2024.

It said on a quarter-on-quarter basis, Human heath and social work activities recorded the highest growth rate with 250.39%, followed by the Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use with 102.09%. 

NBS added that Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities had the least growth rate with –41.92%, followed by activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies with –36.14%.

Continuing, the report said “In terms of sectoral contributions, the top three largest shares in Q3 2024 were Manufacturing with 22.21%; Information and Communication with 20.89%; and Mining & Quarrying activities with 18.90%. 

“Nevertheless, Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share with 0.01%, followed by activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies with 0.01% and Water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities with 0.03%.

“However, on a year-on-year basis, VAT collections in Q3 2024 increased by 88.00% from Q3 2023.”

Similarly, the Bureau said on the aggregate, Company Income Tax (CIT) for Q3 2024 was reported at N1.77 trillion, indicating a growth rate of –28.20% on a quarter-on-quarter basis from N2.47 trillion in Q2 2024.

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NBS said local payments received were N920.91 billion, while Foreign CIT Payment contributed N852.29 billion in Q3 2024.

According to the bureau, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply recorded the highest growth rate with 47.51%, followed by Public administration and defence, compulsory social security with 19.25%. 

On the other hand, accommodation and food service activities had the least growth rate with –73.32%, followed by Financial and insurance activities with –70.04%.

NBS said in terms of sectoral contributions, the top three largest shares in Q3 2024 were manufacturing with 25.47%, followed by mining and quarrying with 18.37%; and Information and communication with 15.07%.

Continuing, the bureau said: “Nevertheless, the Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share with 0.004%, followed by Water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities with 0.03% and activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies with 0.08%. 

“However, on a year-on-year basis, CIT collections in Q3 2024 increased by 1.37% from Q3 2023.” 

• Services contribute 30.83%

• Manufacturing records 2.18%

Nigeria’s economy recorded a significant improvement in the third quarter of 2024, with a growth rate of 3.46 per cent compared to 2.54 per cent in the same period of 2023 and 3.19 per cent in the previous quarter.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed this growth primarily to the performance of the services sector, which accounted for 53.58 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while agriculture and industry contributed 28.65 per cent and 17.77 per cent, respectively.

The dominant contribution of the services sector was mainly driven by sectors such as information and communication (14.51 per cent), trade (12.67 per cent), and financial and insurance (4.72 per cent).

The financial and insurance sector recorded a massive growth of 30.83 per cent, primarily due to gains from naira devaluation and monetary policy tightening.

But reacting to the NBS report, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) regretted that the manufacturing sector was one of the least growing sectors during the period under review, with a growth rate of 2.18 per cent.

Describing the manufacturing sector’s 2.18 per cent growth rate as “meager,” MAN said the growth highlights that the sector is being choked by interest rate hikes, high exchange rates, and escalated energy costs.

MAN Director General Segun Ajayi-Kadir, in a statement, said with the service sub-sectors apparently dominating the composition of the country’s GDP and its pattern of growth, “this poses a significant drawback for the industrialisation agenda.”

He stated that as the services sector continually booms at the detriment of employment and production in the manufacturing sector, the economy is set to fail in its aspirations of reducing forex demand pressures, promoting value addition, generating mass employment, increasing export earnings, driving industrial-led growth, and ensuring sustainable development.

“By implication, achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2026 is apparently difficult, as the growth rate clearly falls short of the six per cent average targeted by the present administration,” Ajayi-Kadir said, in the statement, which was made available to The Nation.

He also said the decline in the real growth of the manufacturing sector is a clear indication of the detrimental impact of the prevailing macroeconomic policies.

Read Also: NBS: Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.46% in third quarter

This, according to him, is further evidenced by the significant drop in nominal growth from 36.59 per cent to 32.97 per cent year-on-year, driven by high inflationary pressure and the exit of major multinational manufacturing companies.

“It is evident that inflation has been a significant factor in undermining the growth of the manufacturing sector, as the sector has been particularly vulnerable to the unstable macroeconomic environment, exacerbated by recent economic reforms,” Ajayi-Kadir said.

The MAN DG noted that agriculture plays a crucial role in fueling the growth of the manufacturing sector by ensuring a steady supply of affordable local raw materials.

He, however, lamented that both the agricultural and manufacturing sectors failed to rank among the top five growing sectors during this period, primarily due to security challenges in farming areas and their subsequent negative impact on agro-allied industries.

“The limited growth in these sectors has led to increased costs for local raw materials. The high cost of living, characterized by high unemployment and inflation, has reduced consumer purchasing power, leading to increased unsold inventory for manufacturers.

“Manufacturers’ negative outlook on the economy has resulted in decreased production and employment. Foreign investors are hesitant to invest in a weak economy, and the scarcity of foreign exchange further hinders manufacturing operations,” Ajayi-Kadir said.

In all, he said while the higher growth recorded in the reviewed period is laudable, it is still relatively modest. “Given the prevalence of high unemployment and poverty, a double-digit GDP growth rate is necessary to achieve inclusive growth that benefits all segments of society,” he said.

The MAN DG emphasised that a vibrant manufacturing sector is essential for driving economic growth and prosperity. He, however, said the sector faces numerous challenges, including multiple taxation, limited access to credit, an unstable foreign exchange market, infrastructure deficits, and energy insecurity.

He said to address these challenges and unlock the potential of the manufacturing sector, the government must take decisive action, including creating special windows for providing single-digit interest rates to productive sectors and relaxing stringent conditions for SMEs to access funding.

MAN also recommended recapitalizing the Bank of Industry (BoI) to meet the growing credit demand of industries, as well as enhancing credit information systems and broadening the scope of assets for collateral.

The Association also wants the implementation of the recommendations of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, including retraining the current excise duty of N10 per liter on non-alcoholic beverages to avoid shutting down the industry.

MAN also called on the Federal Government to direct the Central Bank of Nigeria to clear $2.4 billion outstanding dollar obligations on FX forward contracts to support manufacturers and review import duty rates for production inputs, particularly those not locally available, and consider pegging the rate at N800.

Other reliefs sought by MAN include prioritization of budgetary allocation for infrastructure development, especially along strategic economic hubs, encourage public-private partnerships for infrastructure development, including roads, railways, and port access roads.

MAN also asked the Federal Government to direct the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) to review the excessive increase in electricity tariffs for Band A customers, and prioritize domestic gas supply to manufacturers and enforce Naira-denominated pricing.

It also sought transparency in electricity tariff charges, investment in infrastructure and efficiency improvements by Distribution Companies, and introduction of outage compensation mechanisms.