Give it to them, of all the ethnic nationalities in the country, the North is the most politically sophisticated. And of all ethnic nationality organisations, the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) is the most politically sagacious.”
“Wow? Opalaba! That is a mouthful! On what side of your aging body did you wake up this early morning?” I asked my friend.
“On the thinking side, my friend. I have long thought about the players on our national political field. If you have been as keen an observer as I have been, you will agree with my conclusion. You simply must give it to the North. They are unbeatable in this game, and we all have to learn a lesson or two from them.”
“I am all ears, my friend. I am not too old to learn.”
“Excellent, you are changing. And that is a good thing.
“Remember that Sunday School favorite of elders focused on turning us into industrious men and women: “Go to the ants, thou sluggard. Learn its way and be wise.” Turn that around and you have the most important lesson for your folks: “Go to the North, thou politically naive. Learn their way and be wise.”
“Ok, my friend. Enough of this preamble. I just told you I am ready to learn. So, what is it about the North that you just discovered at 73?
“Well, I did not just discover this. And I can go as far back as you want for hard evidence. Of course, NEF is a relatively recent entity. But its members have been in the loop forever, and their old wine just gets better with age.
“Think way before flag independence. Recall the hard ball played by the Northern delegation to the constitutional conferences. While securing independence from Britain was considered the most nationalistic agenda for Southern nationalists; for the North, being in a state of readiness vis-a-vis indigenous human resources was a priority. That human resources were plentiful nationwide for work anywhere in the country was not a solution for them. They forced the delay of independence on this account.
“Who can blame them for that position?”
“I am not blaming. I am only giving you a hard evidence of Northern political sophistication. While you all think national in a heterogenous country with multiple nationalities with no abiding commonality save the artificiality of geography, the North thinks North. Remember “One North, One destiny”?
“The late Sardauna of Sokoto, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, was the master strategist of the North.
“How do you know that?”
“In an insightful interview during the June 12 crisis, the late elder statesman and leader, Alhaji Maitama Sule, revealed that the Sardauna ensured that many Northern youths were enrolled in military service. As we now know, it was a visionary move that guaranteed that the North controlled not only the armed forces but also the national politics for 24 out of the 28 years of military rule. If that was not political genius, I don’t know what it is. The generals are still around and making waves in national politics.
“It was during that period of military rule that the federal structure of the country was changed to a unitary one. Ironically, as you know, it was a Southern general that introduced the unitary command system of the military with a view to decreeing uniformity over the entire country. And it was partly responsible for the Northern revolt which toppled Ironsi. It turned out that the unitary system was embraced by the Gowon regime and subsequent military regimes. The North fully embraced it, especially with the prospect that national oil revenue could also be used by non-oil producing states.
“Abiola was denied the presidency. While that could be attributed to military power grab, there is no denying the fact that many Northern elites raised no finger. It backfired spectacularly, and the North calculated that it had to yield the presidency to the South. But the Northern genius didn’t take a back seat. Between Olu Falae, the candidate of Afenifere, and Obasanjo, it was clear to the Northern elite who their friend was.
“With Obasanjo in power, the agitation for restructuring since the mid-eighties fell on deaf ears. Political survival forced Jonathan to touch it half-heartedly. Have you wondered why APC, which controls the three arms of government and had restructuring on its agenda, could not pass a devolution bill? A breakdown of the votes for and against is a good place for an answer.
“But the most glaring demonstration of political sagacity this season is the recent declaration by NEF that it has decided not to support the reelection of President Buhari. The political novice would think that it is because the elites of NEF are against Buhari as a person. I beg to disagree. They are aware of how Buhari has helped the North in the last three plus years.
“In a recent WhatsApp, evidence-based analysis, posting by Ali Abubakar Sadiq, we have a compelling account of Buhari’s intervention in the economy of the North, from Anchor Borrower program, which disbursed 150 billion Naira to the farmers in the region, to the Mambilla power plant, the Ajaokuta Steel Mill, the Baro port up the Niger, and many road construction projects completed or ongoing in the North. So, it is not Buhari’s alleged neglect of the North that motivates NEF.
“Sadiq suggests that NEF elites are worried that a second term of Buhari will negatively impact their group interests as opposed to the interest of the masses. That might well be so. But there is something more germane, which bears eloquent testimony to my assessment of the Northern political genius.
“Buhari is fighting for a second term of four years. He has done well for the North in his first term. But Atiku, a fellow Northern Fulani is fighting for a first term. If Atiku is supported and he wins, there is a good potential for him to serve not one but two terms of eight years. Who does not understand mathematics? Ango Abdullahi is a retired professor and a former Vice Chancellor. Eight is better than four. Therefore, only a novice will support a candidate who has at most four years left when they could have an eight-year stint at the helm of affairs.
“My good friend, I respect your logic, but I am not impressed by your conclusion. Candidate Atiku Abubakar has pledged to serve only one term. Your conspiracy theory is a sham. So, what do you have to say to that?” I taunted Opalaba.
My friend exploded with unprintable words. “You just confirmed my hypothesis that you so-called egg heads from the South are far behind in your understanding of politics. Didn’t Buhari promise one term?” Didn’t Jonathan make the same promise?”
“I am not aware of those pledges. And I cannot vouch for the veracity of your claim”, I replied.
That’s alright. But it is true. All I want to tell you is that you cannot rely on such promises.
“But Atiku has promised to restructure the country, a declaration that has excited the South across its three zones.”
“There you go again with your pathetic ignorance of the way of politics and its masters. It’s called the art of deception; and blessed be the deceiver who masters the art, for he shall have many credulous followers. Have you ever considered why Obasanjo would give Atiku a full-throated endorsement if he was certain that Atiku was going to restructure the country? Do you really think that Ango Abdullahi will abandon Buhari for Atiku if he ever believed that Atiku will restructure? In any case, a president cannot single-handedly restructure. He must have not only the National Assembly but also the State Assemblies on board. A presidential candidate always has that reality as his or her fall back excuse.
“Again, if you want to know, it is the ingenuity of NEF that is in full glare. And for them, I doff my gobi. The rest of us have a long catching up to do in this business of self-regarding political ethos.”
Thus, saith Opalaba, the folk sage.
