In about two weeks when the 2025 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) convenes in full session, many important decisions would have to be made by member states of the UN on full membership of the state of Palestine rather than its present observer status. All permanent members of the UN with the exception of the United States will formally recognise the state of Palestine possibly with East Jerusalem as its capital. This is to say France, China, Great Britain and the Russian Federation would formally declare their formal recognition of the state of Palestine.
They will be followed by most members of the UN that had in recent times made public declaration of this intent. This will include members of the G7, namely Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada and other countries in the European Union, Australia and New Zealand, the African Union, the Arab League, the Scandinavian countries of Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland, the Baltic states, Brazil and some members of the Organisation of American states.
It needs to be pointed out that many countries in the African Union including Nigeria had previously recognized Palestine. The United States is in an awkward position with most of its allies in NATO and the G7 supporting Israel because of the hawkish position of the current Israeli government. As at the time of writing, the UN has officially declared that Gaza and the Palestinian population are suffering from man-made suffering and starvation the like that has not been seen since 1945 which could have been prevented by allowing UN agencies to deliver the food in the thousands of trucks carrying food but which have been prevented from entering Gaza by the Israeli military for several months. The implication is that Israel is using starvation of children, women and the elderly as a weapon of war. The Palestinians go further to accuse Israel of genocide because of its alleged intention of reducing the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip and in the western bank of the River Jordan where Israeli settlers are illegally driving away from their lands native Palestinian Bedouin and other natives and these actions are supported by the Israeli army and gangs of armed Jewish settlers. These actions have apparently driven the rest of the world in supporting the Palestinians who are facing genocide through starvation.
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Whichever countries remain out of the global loop will be inconsequential. Despite the pendulum swinging in the direction of Palestine, there will arise the question about what then follows after declaring the Palestinian state so recognised. The question then will arise whether the declared recognition is full of sound and fury signifying nothing unless backed by on the ground recognition physically of a state and a people.
As I write this, the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu has taken two decisions to make the position of Palestine more precarious. The Israeli government is building some thousands of apartment buildings to block the link between East Jerusalem and the Western bank of the River Jordan inhabited by thousands of Palestinians deliberately to make nonsense of a future Palestine territory in contiguously linked territory to East Jerusalem currently occupied by the Israelis. Secondly Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli Defence Force to occupy the capital of the Gaza strip and to obliterate it the same way as other Gaza settlements and to herd all wandering Palestinians roaming the Gaza Strip into a tight corner in the south pending the time they will be forced to deport themselves because of hunger and starvation. He claimed to be talking to the governments of war-torn Libya, ravaged South Sudan, war-ravaged Somalia, Ethiopia and Indonesia to accept Palestinian Immigrants. Most of the countries he claimed to be talking to have appropriately denied they know something about his fanciful castles in the air. This means that the Palestinians state being recognised do not presently exist and its future existence would depend on robust physical actions of the countries recognising it.
One action countries conceding the right of existence to Palestine is providing sufficient funds for it to form a government. This could be in form of government in exile ready to move and govern the territory when there is a territory to govern. This can work if the rest of the world can lean on the American government to persuade Israel to allow the Palestinians state to exist in Gaza, the West Bank and possibly the Negev currently occupied by Egypt. Arrangements to ensure that this emergent government does not have an army must be made. A mobile police force can be arranged that would never constitute a threat to Israel since the fear of physical threat is a mortal fear which Israel never wants to live with. This is understandable because of the past history of the genocide and pogroms against the Jews historically in Europe. There are examples of countries like Switzerland, Costa Rica, Andorra and Iceland to name a few of about 20 member states of the UN that have no military.
If this two state suggestion as above is impracticable, a one state solution could be put in place. This will be the solution in an ideal state but since the Middle East area cannot be considered ideal, the best suggestion would be a non-officially sanctioned religious state. A secular state of Jews and Arab – Palestinians ideally would be suitable. The problem here would be mutual suspicion and lack of trust between formerly belligerent people who now have to live together. The mutual hatred may be obviated by time which is a healer. After some time and arising out of necessity, enemies may live together. There are examples in some other places like South Africa. Some people erroneously cite the example of South Africa which is not the same. The blacks in South Africa are an overwhelming presence unlike the near parity of the Jews and the Palestinians in Palestine. This is also why the idea of a government in exile may not be very relevant.
The last option which the Palestinians would find objectionable is to assist those willing to emigrate to other lands where they may find happiness unlike their present sad and inhuman situation in their ancestral land which a more advanced civilization is determined to deny them.
Some have suggested that since more than 50% of Palestinians live outside Palestine as immigrants, the culture of immigration is not foreign to the Palestinians. The world has become a global village and people seem to move these days from one country to another, but this will have to be voluntary. The only problem is that among Arabs, the Palestinians are not usually welcomed because as immigrants, they seem to outperform the natives in whatever vocation they are engaged in. Their experience in the Kingdom of Jordan is not a good example of what the Palestinians can expect in even neighbouring countries to Palestine. The experience of Palestinians in most countries they have emigrated to because wherever they go they carry the sense of longing for a lost home with them, a sense of nostalgia which makes their assimilation difficult and they ironically share this tendency with their Jewish fellow human beings. These are some of the problems the Palestinians will face in the future unless President Donald J. Trump changes the trajectory of American policy or Netanyahu is removed from power after the next election in Israel and a more liberal and future-looking government emerges in Israel. Of course all things are possible in human affairs.
