An old Italian saying warns against putting faith, or money, in any presumed front-runner ahead of the conclave, the closed-door gathering of cardinals that picks the pontiff. It cautions: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal”.
But here are some cardinals who are being talked about as “papabili” to succeed Pope Francis, whose death at the age of 88 was announced by the Vatican on Monday. The current Nigerian Catholic Cardinals – Francis Arinze, Anthony Olubunmi Okogie, Peter Ebere Okpaleke, and John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan are not reported as part of those being considered.
Cardinal Francis Arinze, born on November 1, 1932, he was named a cardinal in 1995; Cardinal Anthony Olubunmi Okogie, born on June 16, 1936, he was christened a cardinal in 1999; Cardinal Peter Ebere Okpaleke, born on March 1, 1963, he was named a cardinal in 2022; and Cardinal John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan, born on January 29, 1944, he was created a cardinal in 2012.
Those being considered as the next Pope are listed in alphabetical order.
Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille, French, aged 66
According to the French press, he is known in some domestic Catholic circles as John XXIV, in a nod to his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the round-faced reforming pope of the early 1960s.
Pope Francis once quipped that his successor might take the name of John XXIV.
Aveline is known for his folksy, easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes, and his ideological proximity to Francis, especially on immigration and relations with the Muslim world. He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, Hungarian (72)
If Erdo is elected, he would inevitably be seen as a compromise candidate — someone from the conservative camp who has nonetheless built bridges with Francis’ progressive world.
Erdo was already considered a papal contender in the last conclave in 2013 thanks to his extensive Church contacts in Europe and Africa as well as the fact that he was seen as a pioneer of the New Evangelisation drive to rekindle the Catholic faith in secularized advanced nations — a top priority for many cardinals.
Cardinal Mario Grech, secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Maltese (68)
Grech comes from Gozo, a tiny island that is part of Malta, the smallest country in the European Union. But from small beginnings he has gone on to big things, appointed by Pope Francis to be secretary general of the Synod of Bishops — a heavyweight position within the Vatican.
Initially viewed as a conservative, Grech has become a torchbearer of Francis’ reforms within the Church for years, moving sharply with the times.
In 2008, several gay Maltese citizens declared they were leaving the Church in protest at what they saw as the anti-LGBT stance of the then pontiff — Pope Benedict.
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Cardinal Juan Jose Omella, archbishop of Barcelona, Spanish (79)
Omella is a man after Pope Francis’ own heart. Unassuming and good-natured, he lives a humble life despite his lofty title, dedicating his Church career to pastoral care, promoting social justice and embodying a compassionate and inclusive vision of Catholicism.
“We must not see reality only through the eyes of those who have the most, but also through the eyes of the poor,” he told the Crux news site in April 2022, in words reflecting Francis’ world vision.
He was born in 1946 in the village of Cretas in northeastern Spain. After being ordained in 1970 he served as a priest in a number of Spanish parishes and also spent a year as a missionary in Zaire, now called Democratic Republic of Congo.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Italian, Vatican diplomat (70)
A punters’ favourite, Parolin is seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives. He has been a Church diplomat for most of his life and served as Pope Francis’ secretary of state since 2013, the year Francis was elected.
The position is similar to that of a prime minister and secretaries of state are often called the “deputy pope” because they rank second to the pontiff in the Vatican hierarchy.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, Ghanaian, Vatican official (76)
From humble beginnings in a small African town, Cardinal Peter Turkson has gone on to great things in the Church, making him a contender to become the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.
He combines a long pastoral background of tending to congregations in Ghana with hands-on experience of leading several Vatican offices, as well as strong communication skills.
He studied at seminaries in Ghana and New York, was ordained in 1975, and then taught in his former Ghanaian seminary and did advanced Biblical studies in Rome.
Matteo Maria Zuppi, Italian, archbishop of Bologna (69)
When Zuppi got a promotion in 2015 and became archbishop of Bologna, national media referred to him as the “Italian Bergoglio”, due to his affinity with Francis, the Argentine pope who was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio.
Zuppi would be the first Italian pope since 1978.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, Guinea (79)
At 79, Cardinal Robert Sarah stands as a strong voice for Catholic orthodoxy. Born in Guinea, Sarah has had a distinguished career within the Vatican, serving as Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments from 2014 until his retirement in 2021.
Throughout his tenure, Sarah became known for his unwavering defence of traditional Catholic liturgy and doctrine, including his opposition to same-sex marriage, abortion, and modern gender ideologies. He has also publicly criticised Islamic extremism, positioning himself as a defender of both Catholic identity and global stability.
In 2016, he sparked debate by advocating for priests to celebrate Mass facing the altar, a practice largely abandoned after the Second Vatican Council. His conservative theology and commitment to preserving the Church’s ancient traditions have earned him both respect and criticism within the Catholic world.