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Tag: Nigeria Decides 2019

  • Islamic cleric sues for peace during polls

    A respected Islamic cleric, Dr. (Sheikh) A.A. Usman has appealed to Nigerians to embrace peace and not violence during the 2019 general elections. Dr. Usman made this appeal when groups of his followers from north, east, west, middle belt, traditional and religious leaders in Nigeria visited him at his Lagos mansion in Oniru Private Beach on Wednesday, 13th February, 2019.

    It was during their annual prayer congregation that the Sheikh told his adherents that Almighty Allah has revealed to him the winner of the presidential and some other categories of election of interest to most members of the congregation and he revealed their names to the congregation in confidence which attracted jubilations amongst them, saying that the revelations were in consonance with the politicians they want to win in the elections.

    Read Also: Polls shift: APDA backs INEC for credible election

    The congregation thereafter congratulated Dr. Usman for his good work and commended him for his trademark true predictions in matters of national interest and urged him to keep praying for the unity of Nigeria as he always does because the prayers of people like him have been keeping Nigeria together as against the naysayers who usually incite Nigerians against one another.

  • Sizing Up the Delta Central Senate Race

    This week, many Nigerians will participate in yet another critical election. And for the electorates in Delta Central Senatorial District, the stakes could not be higher as they have to make a massive decision on who to send to the 9th senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Electing a wrong person could have dire consequences for the Urhobo nation that is eager to restore its standing in the affairs of state and country.

    Over the years since the return of democracy in 1999, the Urhobo nation, the fifth largest ethnic group in Nigeria which overwhelmingly populate Delta Central have been losing its standing in national affairs. So as the Urhobos go to the polls on the 16th of February 2019, they will be electing not just a representative to the upper chamber of the National Assembly but a senator who will champion Urhobo cause at the national level and take Urhobo forward.

    Senator Ovie Omo-Agege is hoping to retain his seat on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, APC to continue the good work he is already doing to promote and protect Urhobo interest. Challenging him for the right to represent Delta Central Senatorial District in the red chamber are sixteen other candidates. But the contest will be mainly between Omo-Agege and Hon. Evelyn Oboro, a two term member of the House of Representatives who is seeking a promotion to the upper chamber on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP.

    Omo- Agege won the APC ticket in a landslide, defeating the 2015 APC gubernatorial candidate, Olorogun O’tega Emerhor who made a late challenge for the APC ticket. On the other hand, Oboro defeated Chief Ighoyota Amori, whom many believe would have posed a greater challenge to Omo-Agege’s ambition to return to the senate.

    As we all know when considering an employee for promotion you must make sure that this person is qualified, can take on bigger tasks and is a proper fit.
    Hon. Oboro is constitutionally qualified to aspire to be a senator. She is a Nigerian and she is above the age of 35 and had completed at least secondary school education. We also know that she is sponsored by a political party, has sound mind and no prior criminal conviction nor adjudged to be bankrupt.

    But does she have the skills and knowledge to effectively represent the Urhobo nation in a chamber dominated by ex governors, retired military generals, academia and others who have excelled in other professions before joining politics. What is more, is she the right person to represent Urhobo?

    In contrast to the outsized personalities that have been Urhobo senators – David Dafinone, Fred Brume, Felix Ibru, (Prof) Adego Eferakeya, Puis Akporokena Ewherido, it is clear that Miss Oboro does not belong to that exclusive club of Urhobos.

    And the sad reality is that she wouldn’t do a better job than Omo-Agege, the incumbent senator, primarily because she is a political hack whose intentions are believed to be more aligned with political opportunism than personal conviction, ethics or morals and whose political career so far has been shaped by PDP corrupt political machines. Her history of political opportunism has shown that she is truly a machine politician and a hired gun.

    After two terms in the Federal House of Representatives, Oboro is little known beyond Delta, her home state. And as a ranking member of the House of Representative, the only committee she could secure its leadership is the little known Women in Parliament Committee. Urhobo deserves better. This should be on the radar of Urhobo electorates who are concerned about where the Urhobo is headed right now.

    Take the long view, and Omo-Agege remains the best voice for Urhobo. The Urhobos need someone who is smart, strategic, courageous and has a proven record of performance. And in Omo-Agege, Urhobo has found one man who has all four qualities. Tested and proven, Omo-Agege is regarded as better suited to restore Urhobo Greatness.

    And his story is very compelling.

    In just three years in the senate, everyone knows Omo-Agege because he built a national profile as an unshakable ally of President Muhammadu Buhari. He’s earned credibility by picking big fights long ago that weren’t so popular at the time but have proven to be masterstrokes.

    An outspoken supporter of Mr. President, Omo-Agege, 55, has cultivated the most anti-Saraki record in the senate. He stood up against the senate president, Dr. Bukola Saraki who turned the senate against the APC federal government. and against all odds prevailed. He refused to cave into the arm-twisting tactics including promises of committee posts or other prime positions Saraki has perfected to control the senate.

    As a consequence, Urhobo political standing is more robust than what it was four years ago. Urhobo is right on course to greatness, thanks to Omo-Agege. And the Urhobo people are so grateful and proud of his achievements as a fresh senator.

    The Urhobo people know that he is a competitor who will fight for what he believes in and not a political hack who has no principle, beliefs nor reputation. They also know that he takes a back seat to no one when it comes to “doing what’s right for the Urhobo nation. He will always stand up for whatever he wants.

    In 2015 the Urhobo people made the right choice in Omo-Agege and right now, barring an almost unthinkable upset, Omo-Agege looks set to make history as the first Urhobo senator to win reelection as he is expected to easily defeat Oboro who has proved undeserving of promotion to the upper chamber of the national assembly to represent a senatorial district where PDP is very unpopular.

    Make no mistake, Omo-Agege is beloved in Delta Central as a smart, courageous and personable lawmaker, whom they believe can take Urhobo out of political marginalization to greatness. He has captured the hearts of the Urhobo people and they recognize that if Urhobo must continue to make progress in its determination to regain lost glory, Omo-Agege should be supported to return back to the senate to continue his good work on behalf of the Urhobo people and they are nearly unanimous in rallying to his side across party lines. Even in Uvwie Local Government Area, the local government of Oboro, Omo-Agege is well positioned to win.

    Former 1st Deputy President General of Urhobo Progress Union UPU and an indigene of Uvwie,
    Chief Tuesday Onoge, praised Omo-Agege, saying he had “served our nation and Urhobo people well and honorably” and should be reelected.

    The General Secretary of the Forum of Urhobo Kingdoms President Generals who is also the acting Chairman, Chief Kenneth Iwhewhe, described Sen. Omo-Agege as a dogged fighter and courageous child that is deserving of being sent on an errand to the senate again.

    “Go and deliver. Nobody knew that you are a dogged fighter, but with your antecedents in the past three years, you have shown that you are a man to be remembered.”, Iwhewhe said.
    The Urhobo kings are also not left out in the overwhelming endorsement of Omo-Agege. Speaking when Omo-Agege presented his stewardship report to the Ivies, the Chairman of the council, His Royal Majesty, Ogoni Oghoro I, the Ohworode of Olomu kingdom, said “Omo-Agege has not only represented the interest of the Urhobo nation adequately but also that of the generality of Nigerians”, adding that they have no doubt that Omo-Agege will do more for the Urhobo nation if he is given the opportunity to go back for his second term and assured him of his second term bid at the national assembly.

    However, history favors Oboro, as no senator has won reelection in Delta Central since Delta State was created. But against an incumbent, with unquestionable qualifications and grit, with impressive patriotic bona fides and a track record of fighting for what he believes in, rule of law which had earned him nationwide popularity, the chances of her actually prevailing are virtually nil, which is the conclusion, of course, that she has come to realize recently when she started to make false allegations about threat to her life and fear mongering.

  • Polls shift: NANS suspends protest in Ogun

    The National Association of Nigerian Students ( NANS ) has disclosed that it has suspended its protest earlier scheduled to take place in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, on Monday, following intelligence gathering that politicians have hijacked it.

    NANS also accused some of their members, especially from the umbrella body, of collecting money from politicians, ostensibly to keep them divided and mute over the postponed general elections in the country.

    The National Public Relations Officer of NANS, Com. Azeez Adeyemi, who made this known while addressing reporters in Abeokuta, the Ogun state capital, advised the affected colleagues to urgently return the money to the donor – politicians.

    Adeyemi lamented that politicians have infiltrated the NANS’ ranks and also sponsored human rights group to hijack their protest, but assured that all bad elements within NANS will be reported to the law enforcement authorities for questioning and prosecution if necessary.

    The NANS Image maker, however, issued 48 hours ultimatum to the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC to address the nation and assure Nigerians of “Free, Fair and Credible” election.

    He noted that the student body is yet to recover from the shock of the postponement but urged Nigerians to remain calm and focus.

    Adeyemi also urged President Muhammadu Buhari to give INEC the necessary support to ensure free, peaceful and credible general elections.

  • Olawepo-Hashim writes INEC, seeks further shift of polls date

    Third Force Presidential candidate running on the People’s Trust (PT) platform, Mr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim has written the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral, Professor Mahmoud Yakubu requesting a further extension of the Presidential and National Assembly elections.

    The Presidential hopeful argued that, the one week extension was rather too short to conclude the stated enormous logistics requirement for the polls.

    Olawepo-Hashim who lately led the online polls of most preferred candidate amongst the third force, argued in a letter to the INEC chairman that another extension was reasonable in view of the logistics burden on the contestants and the parties.

    According to him, the candidates and the parties would now have to repeat logistics preparations that have hitherto been deployed to achieve the level of mobilization at the February 16 scheduled election.

    He stressed that, “It is my considered opinion that in the haste to stick to a quickly announced date for the election, the Commission may not have paid adequate attention to the attendant voter apathy that may result if adequate confidence building measures are not implemented to win back ‘would-be’ voters for the next date of polling.

    “As a result and because a potential voter’s apathy in some section of the country or all of the country may substantially affect the results of the election, a new date of election should be between three to four weeks from February 16 not one week from February 16 as previously announced. This is more so for self-funded candidates and political parties who do not have the possibilities or intentions of falling quickly on the State treasuries to refinance another logistic deployment.” He argued

    The candidate equally opined that, campaigs should also resume undoubtedly in consonance with extant legislation that allow campaign to continue up till 24 hours before elections, in order to achieve the same level of mobilization of voters as before February 16th.

    In his letter copied to the United Nations representatives, Observer and Civil Society Groups, the diplomatic community and the media Olawepo-Hashim also urged that, “the Commission should liase with the National Orientation Agency (NOA), who should use their national networks to ensure mobilization of communities, social and interest groups to reach potential voters in order to avoid voter apathy at the next date of election.”

  • We may not obey INEC’s directive on campaign – APC

    National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress ( APC ), Comrade Adams Oshiomhole has given indications that the party will not obey directives by INEC not to reopen campaign, saying the directive was against the laws of the land.

    Oshiomhole said that the electoral management body does not have the power of making laws and cannot on its own amend the law by asking parties not to campaign after shifting the election.

    Read Also: Elections: APC UK wants INEC reviewed, reformed

    He said the APC and its members nationwide will continue in their campaign till Thursday this week as provides for by the Electoral Act and will be prepared to meet the commission in court.

    He also accused the commission of failing to take concrete action against some of its officials accused of taking side with certain political parties.

    Details shortly…

  • All eyes on INEC

    As Nigerians cast their votes in the presidential and National Assembly polls today, all eyes will be on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Will it deliver the credible elections INEC Chairman Prof. Mahmood Yakubu has promised? ROBERT EGBE asks.

    FEMI Erinjogunola should not have had any reason not to cast his vote when this year’s polls get underway from 9 am today. The Graphics Artist and Judo aficionado registered for and obtained his Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC) from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) four years ago, just before the 2015 polls. But sometime last year, he noticed that his picture on the card had faded away, following which he lodged a complaint and applied for another one at INEC’s Mushin, Lagos office.

    “The officials noted my complaint, collected the damaged PVC and issued me a slip of paper. They promised to notify me as soon as the new card is ready,” Erinjogunola said. But they never did until last Wednesday, at exactly 6pm, when he got a text message, asking him to come for his PVC. He said: “When I got there, it was another story entirely. My name was not on the list of those whose cards were ready. They asked me and some others to come back for our PVCs after the elections.” Disenfranchised voters, unclaimed PVCs Erinjogunola’s story is not unique. There are probably hundreds of thousands like him around the country who fall within the same category, compulsorily disenfranchised by imperfections in the INEC’s system.

    There are also other categories: would-be voters who registered for PVCs but were put off by the sometimes stressful collection process, among other reasons. Since late last year, INEC has been raising the alarm about millions of unclaimed PVCs in many states across the country. On January 16, it moved about one million unclaimed Permanent Voter’s Cards (PVCs) to 245 wards in Lagos State to make collection easier for their owners. INEC facilities going up in smoke But recently, unclaimed PVCs have been the least of INEC’s immediate worries. Last Tuesday, 4,695 smart card readers were destroyed by fire that razed INEC’s facility in Anambra State. It was the third fire incident affecting INEC in 12 days, following closely behind those of INEC’s offices in lsiala Ngwa South Local Government Area of  Abia State and Qua’an Pan Local Government Area of Plateau State. Some of the items destroyed in Isiala Ngwa included 2979 PVCs and other materials. At the Qua’an Pan office, items destroyed included 5987 uncollected PVCs, 380 Voting Cubicles, 755 ballot boxes, 14 generators, election forms and official stamps.

    How impartial is INEC? Last Wednesday, the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Comrade Adams Oshiomhole accused INEC of working for the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Oshiomhole alleged that two Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) in the South-South were seen campaigning with the PDP during the electioneering. He said: “As we speak, there are two Resident Electoral Commissioners who are virtually campaigning line by line with the PDP in the South-South. “INEC, without giving us any explanation and without any concrete evidence, went ahead to say we can’t field candidates in Zamfara, thereby seeking to award, without any context, and nullify democracy in Zamfara State. “Is that the way your friends behave if they are your friends? INEC is working more for the PDP, based on evidence I can show. How can they explain that a court of competent jurisdiction gave orders in Zamfara to say this candidate is eligible to contest election and another high court in Abuja also gave a verdict saying APC did not conclude its primaries but did not give order to INEC? “There is no order issued by the Federal High Court in Abuja.

    The Court of Appeal made a pronouncement on this matter today that there was no order from the court in Abuja, but that there was a concrete order from a Zamfara High Court which upheld the primaries that was conducted in Zamfara. “The INEC Chairman has said that when there are two court orders, they will adopt the last judgment. In Zamfara State, the Abuja judgment came first and the Zamfara judgment came last even though it is the same say. “More as INEC has said they will always obey the last judgment when it came to the Zamfara issue, they changed the goal post. As media, you have to be careful. When you say people alleged there were meetings and can’t even cite any, it is a disservice.

    We have been at the receiving end of abuse. “There is a candidate in Kano whose nomination we forwarded to INEC, but they changed the nomination and as we speak, we are in court over that. We showed our evidence.” We are impartial, says INEC But the commission denied the claims of collusion with any party to breach the polls. Rotimi Oyekanmi, the Chief Press Secretary to the INEC Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, called on Oshiomhole to provide proof of his allegations. Oyekanmi said: “It is not true that the Independent National Electoral Commission is working hand in gloves with any political party to do the wrong things. The issue of Zamfara and Rivers are well known. “In the case of Zamfara, the commission had written to the APC leadership to notify it that, due to its inability to conduct its primaries in Zamfara State within the stipulated time as required by law, the party cannot field candidates for the governorship election.

    Thereafter, two cases were instituted in court resulting in two rulings which were delivered the same day. The commission then adopted one of the rulings. “In the case of Rivers, it was the Supreme Court that took a final decision on the fate of APC. Therefore, both cases were purely judicial and INEC, being a law abiding institution, will always obey court orders/judgment.” Safety of NYSC members Last December 19, two United States-based political institutes National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) – expressed worries over the general elections.

    They said Nigeria’s persistent insecurity and the perception about the lack of neutrality on the part of security forces could undermine voter participation and confidence in the outcome of next year’s polls. Several local analysts have also raised concerns about break out of violence in the elections, which could affect INEC staff, especially members of the National Youth Service Corp (NYSC), among others. Seven corps members were killed in Bauchi State during the violence that erupted after the 2011 general election. Also, one corps member was killed in Ahoada West Local Government Area of Rivers State during the legislative rerun election in the state in March of 2016. However, the NYSC DirectorGeneral, Suleiman Kazaure, assured corps members last November 6 that those who chose to work with INEC during the polls would not be sent to volatile areas. Kazaure, a Brigadier-General in the Nigerian Army, gave this assurance when he visited the NYSC Orientation Camp in Sagamu, Ogun State. “I want to also state it here that no corps member will be used as ad-hoc staff in the volatile regions during the elections as their safety is of paramount concern to the scheme,” he said. 91 parties, 84m voters: Is INEC ready? The general elections will be contested by 56 out of 91 registered political parties and a total voting population of 84,004,084. According to INEC’s National Commissioner and Chairman of its Information and Voter Education Committee, the polls will hold in 1,558 Constituencies and 774 Local Government Areas throughout the federation.

    “The collation of results will take place in 8, 809 Registration Areas/Wards and in 119, 973 Polling Units and 57, 023 Voting Points nationwide,’’ he said. The Presidential Election will be contested by 73 candidates, while the Governorship election will feature 1,068 candidates in 29 states. “The 109 Senate seats will be contested by 1,904 candidates, while the 360 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested by a total of 4, 680 candidates. “The 991 State Constituency elections will be contested by a total of 14, 583 candidates. The 68 Area Council seats in the Federal Capital Territory will be contested by 806 candidates,’’ he said. The commission will also conduct Area Council elections in the FCT, Abuja. “A total of 806 candidates will contest the election. This will involve 105 Chairmanship candidates and 701 Councillorship candidates.” Logistics hitches The logistics requirements of conducting such critical elections are bound to be huge. In previ ous elections, there were several cases of logistical hitches.

    This time round, can INEC fulfill its logistical duties? Are ballots going to be delivered to polling places on time? Will polling places open on time? How INEC will cope But INEC Chairman Prof Yakubu is not perturbed. He believes that several measures implemented by the agency will forestall any serious crisis. He assured Nigerians that their votes will count. Yakubu spoke when he received a delegation of the Commonwealth Observers Group led by former Tanzanian President, Dr Jakaya Kikwete, at the commission’s headquarters in Abuja. He stressed that the Commonwealth in its report on the 2015 general election made 32 recommendations, including the adoption of Simultaneous Accreditation and Voting System.

    The INEC boss said the commission had looked into the recommendations and implemented those within its power administratively, while those requiring amendment of the Constitution and Electoral Act had been sent to the appropriate authorities. Yakubu added that INEC had conducted 194 off-season elections with simultaneous accreditation and voting system, which is now part of election guidelines issued by the commission. The commission also said it had made other arrangements to make the elections peaceful around the country. For instance, INEC said it hired 1,700 buses for election duty in Enugu state for today’s elections. The commission said it would hire more than 10 trailers to move heavy materials and equipment before, during and after the polls – Enugu state currently has 1,942,776 registered voters, 4,146 voting locations and 260 political wards.

  • Buhari or Atiku?

    As Nigerians go to the polls today to elect a President and National Assembly members that will preside over the affairs of the nation for the next four years from May 29, it is all too easy and tempting to assess the country’s evolving democracy from an overly pessimistic, even cynical, purview. Despite the plethora of parties and candidates, the election is a straight contest between the incumbent All Prospective Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Many consider this a dismal scenario. They contend that we are most likely set to vote mechanically without choosing, as the late Professor Claude Ake would put it, since there appears to be no genuine alternatives to select from.

    Apart from their organizational spread and relative structural solidity, it is argued that the two dominant parties are neither ideologically nor philosophically dissimilar. Again, there are those who would prefer any of the nearly half dozen younger, more articulate as well as rhetorically and sartorially seemingly more appealing candidates to the two leading septuagenarians contenders, President Muhammadu Buhari and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who they dismiss as both unsuited to offer visionary, effective and competent leadership at this time.

    Furthermore, the nature of our politics is still seen, to some extent rightly, as  characterized, largely, by a vicious struggle for power by all means and at all costs mostly for self-serving pecuniary ends rather than altruistic, developmental motivation.  Yet, there is still, in my view, justifiable reason to take a more optimistic view of the country’s unfolding political development. The intensity of the political campaigns across the country suggests that no longer can the political class take the electorate for granted. No more can incumbency breed complacency. 2015 remains a lesson to everyone. Despite his age and the acute illness he went through early in his administration, President Buhari campaigned in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. Atiku has also run an energetic and exhaustive campaign nationwide.

    Issues of performance and merit have also been significant in the run up to the election and will have an impact on the likely outcome. The speed with which the PDP has bounced back as a force to contend with in this contest, despite its devastating defeat as the party in power at the centre in 2015 and the resultant exposure of its morally repugnant entrails as a result of Buhari’s anti-corruption onslaught, is partly due to the perception of the APC’s performance in the last three and a half years. There has no doubt been a gap between the high expectations of change that the APC aroused during its campaign in 2015 and the party’s actual performance in power leading to some degree of frustration and disappointment among many of its hitherto enthusiastic supporters.

    However, an appreciable number of the electorate is also perceptive enough to assess the performance of the APC against the backdrop of the utter lack of vision, sheer incompetence and monumental corruption of the preceding 16 years in power of the PDP particularly the incredibly perverse six years of President Goodluck Jonathan. No one realistically expected the APC to magically correct in four years the cumulative rot and decay of over and one and a half decades that it inherited from the PDP.

    It is indeed significant that, despite the country earning less revenue from oil as a result of the sharp drop in oil prices under the APC compared to the PDP years, the Buhari administration in three and a half years has achieved more in infrastructure renewal across the country, diversification of the economy as well as massive investment in social intervention projects to benefit the poor on a scale unprecedented in this dispensation. Not surprisingly, therefore, the APC administration’s inexcusable unforced errors are insufficient to prevent what many analysts predict will be its inevitable victory in today’s elections.

    There is no reason whatsoever why either Buhari or Atiku should be offhandedly dismissed as being less capable than any of the other light weight candidates intensely admired in some politically ineffectual elite circles. Both men, no matter their limitations, are the two most exposed in terms of the management of public affairs over a wide scope and range of all candidates on the ballot. They have continually been in the public arena for the better part of the last four decades and their strengths and weaknesses well known.

    Some of the other bright candidates in other parties who clearly can make no impact in this election can always work towards the future. The enterprise of party formation, building and organization is no tea party. It is hard, back breaking work. In politics, it is unrealistic to expect to climb a tree from the top.

    The choices we have before us in this election realistically are Buhari or Atiku. Some cast their lot with Atiku on the basis of perceived competence and ability to run the economy efficiently. He and his running mate, Peter Obi, are successful businessmen. They have promised to bring their private sector acumen to public sector governance and create millions of job even though they have not told us how. Atiku had ample opportunity to display his ability in this regard as Vice President to General Obasanjo. In the first term before things fell apart between the two, he was practically in charge of the economy as his boss gallivanted the globe as an international salesman for Nigeria. Our best memory of that period is certainly not of creative and dynamic economic management. It was of the flawed privatization process characterized by sleazy opacity and debilitating cronyism.

    Others contend that Atiku has a penchant for attracting talent to work with him as well as having an expansive, pan Nigerian network of associates that will enable him run an inclusive administration in sharp contrast to Buhari’s unattractive insularity. Yes, the capacity to attract and utilize talent is good. But that is if a leader does not at the same time espouse as well as embrace lax ethical values that necessarily erode the gains of merit and expertise. In the same vein, an urbane outlook and cosmopolitan reach can become an albatross if at the same time a leader’s philosophy of governance sees nothing wrong in ‘enriching his friends’.

    Rules, standards, processes and procedures will necessarily suffer and good governance will be the ultimate casualty. In any case, if Atiku promises to offer ‘amnesty to looters’ if they invest their stolen money in the economy, does it mean that those from whom tremendous amounts of looted money and other assets have been recovered by the Buhari administration will be free to get their money back as long as they reinvest the money in the economy to create jobs? Will such investment be to make profit and further enrich the repentant looter or will it be an act of philanthropy?

    Again, Atiku has received enthusiastic endorsement from self-styled ethno-regional representatives of dubious electoral value because of his new found love with the idea of restructuring Nigeria. Restructuring means different things to as many individuals and groups as clamor for it. What does it mean to Atiku? It is difficult to say. The government in which he served as Vice President for eight years vehemently obstructed every attempt by the Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration in Lagos State to deepen federalism in Nigeria through judicial activism.

    In any case, there is a schizophrenic twist to Atiku’s current stance on restructuring. He waxes lyrical about his commitment to restructuring in the Southeast, Southeest and South-south but is curiously silent on the issue in the north. Is it therefore illogical to include that it may all be a vote harvesting gimmick after all, especially as a President cannot singlehandedly pursue and achieve a restructuring agenda without his party controlling an emphatic majority in the National Assembly?

    Buhari is non pretentious. It is not in his character to pander to populist gestures even if it will win him or his party plaudits. His inflexibility on principles he strongly believes in can be irritating, even annoying at times. The APC administration’s commitment to fighting corruption and enthroning greater accountability, transparency and efficiency in governance is a good starting point. As it achieves greater organizational cohesion and ideological clarity as well as hopefully establishes better dominance in the National Assembly in the next four years, the APC administration will be in a better position to pursue the federalist strand of its progressive agenda. This is different from the PDP, which even has no mention in its manifesto of the restructuring promise that its candidate has been so vocal about at least in the South.

    Much ado has been made about a few memory lapses on the part of Buhari during the campaign. But he at least has had sufficient presence of mind to have kept his eyes firmly on the ball of fighting corruption, recovering looted property and raising the standard of ethical rectitude in our public life. That is the critical thing. Buhari has had the presence of mind and character to keep a firm lid on the public coffers and preventing the kind of crazy dollar rain witnessed under Jonathan in the run up to the 2015 election even though as the incumbent that would have given him a substantial advantage over the opposition.

    Buhari does not pretend to be an extrovert or to have an armada of friends. All those are of course quite admirable attributes. But Buhari’s high standard of integrity, no matter his personal failings as a human being, will determine my vote today.

  • Fears over fate of IDPs votes in Benue

    Internally-Displaced Persons ( IDPs ) are being disenfranchised and mischievous politicians may be manipulating votes in IDP camps, civil society activists have alleged.

    Although INEC spokesman, Mr. Andya Terkaa, told The Nation that everything was being done to enable all displaced persons with PVC to vote, the Benue State Civil Society Coalition says it discovered arrangements were made for voting in only two out of the eight existing IDP camps.

    Since the bloody bandits’ attacks that reached a high point in January last year, thousands of displaced Benue indigenes have remained in IDP camps amidst unconfirmed reports that some individuals who dared to return home were being shot by unknown assailants.

    “We went to great lengths to sensitise IDPs to vote and more than twenty thousand of them collected PVC but only those in two camps are to vote,” the coalition’s Executive Director, Ms Helen Tegh Tegh told The Nation during an interaction at the office in Makurdi on Friday.

    “The two IDP camps where voting is really taking place are Anyin and Ugba camps, both of which are in Logo local government area.

    “For reasons of security, lack of transport fare and loss of homes during last year’s attacks, thousands of IDPs who were told to go and vote in their respective villages will not be able to use those votes,” Helen Tegh Tegh who is also the Executive Director of Community Link Initiatives stated.

    However, INEC asserted that there is no problem to worry about.

    According to INEC spokesman, Andya Terkaa, the commission did a profiling of ODPs and made provision for adequate number of voting points after realizing that most IDPs cannot go home to vote.

    “The profiling data was taken to Abuja for further analysis and approval and now, the commission is providing IDP Voting Points so that people will not be disenfranchised.

    “In normal polling units, there would be just one or two ballot boxes but several will be provided at the Voting Point, based on the profiling and if it means giving them fifteen ballot boxes, the commission will give them,” he explained.

  • 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: WHAT DATA TELLS US COULD HAPPEN

    When Professor Attahiru Jega announced the official results of the 2015 presidential election, majority of Nigerians jubilated.  Not convinced, many skeptics imagined what could happen should the incumbent government refuse to accept the outcome. A national uproar was possible but, thankfully, did not materialize. President Goodluck Jonathan graciously conceded, passed the baton to Muhammadu Buhari, and made way in the Villa for a new government to march on.

    Another presidential election is here. Nigerians are about to decide who will rule them for the next four years or beyond, a decision enabled with the aid of the permanent voters’ card – PVC. Voter registration figures for the coming polls suggest Nigerians want to have a say. INEC says this year’s voter register includes an unprecedented 84,040,084 names, representing a 20% increase from the last election cycle.

    Narrowing down on voters’ registration geo-politically

    A close look at voter registration by geo-political zones over the years opens up an interesting discussion. The North West had the highest number in 2011 and 2015. But while they retain the distinction in the current election cycle, the highest increase in voter registration between 2015 and 2019 occurred in the South South and South East geo-political zones. What does this hold for the election?

    Statewise, Delta and Rivers recorded the highest increase in new voters across the country. In Delta, a keen contest leading up to the governorship elections may have precipitated the surge in new registrations. The APC gubernatorial primaries involved, among other heavyweights in the state, Prof Pat Utomi. Also, the state’s former Governor, Emmanuel Uduaghan, is a candidate for a senatorial seat under the APC, with his successor Ifeanyi Okowa seeking re-election. A similar scenario is at play in Rivers state where the incumbent PDP Governor Nyesom Wike is aiming to neuter any influence by former governor Rotimi Amaechi. The Transport Minister is tasked by the Buhari re-election campaign to do more to capture more votes in the state this time than in 2015.

    What else could trigger the residents of these states to come out en masse and register if not to vote out the current administration? A stream of protest votes is on the cards.At the other end of the scale, the North Central zone has the lowest increase in voters registration while the North East ranks third. The two zones house Plateau, Benue, Borno, the most troubled states in Nigeria.Residents of these states have suffered Boko Haram  insurgency and Herdsmen attack more than any other state in the northern zones. A closer look at individual zones shows that similar patterns exist in the two zones. The number of new registrants in the troubled states are close. The three states have about five hundred thousand increase.

     

    A Twist: Only half of those who register actually Vote
    Nigerian democracy is growing but there is a wired pattern. If voters registration is equal to voters turn out, more than 84 million Nigerians should be out on the streets on February 16, at different polling units to exercise their voting rights. But from what past elections teach us about voter turnout in Nigeria, what should we really expect on Saturday?

     

    In fact, only about five out of 10 of the people who claim they want better governance, having gone through the exercise of getting registered, actually turn up on D-day.

    INEC is empowered by law the conduct elections. It is estimated to have more than $500 million (precisely N189,207,544,893 was approved by the Senate in 2018) at its disposal to run this year’s polls in as fair a manner as possible. Organizing and carrying out elections in a country such as Nigeria – which is currently dealing with major economic and security issues – can lead to a number of problems before, throughout and after Election Day. These problems can keep people away from polling stations.

    In 2011, 73,528,040 Nigerians registered but 39,469,520 votes (53.6%) were cast on Election Day. Four years later, participation fell by nearly 10% as less than half of the 66,924,005 registered voters turned out.

    The number of registered voters suggests many Nigerians are interested in the democratic process. What then causes political apathy or indifference on election day?

    Violence and Insecurity: Every election comes with the risk of violence. Knowing the history of violence during elections in Nigeria, this can constrain enthusiastic turnout, and even call into question the credibility of an electoral process. Casting their vote is the sovereign right of every citizen in any democratic government and one must be able to do this with ease and safety, free from undue interference and free from fear of any kind. Security is a major concern and its importance during elections is therefore obvious; it would make sure numerous stakeholders are able to discharge their responsibilities under the Constitution and the Electoral Act.

    President Buhari is vying for a second term but nominations for other positions within the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC, have been highly contested. This led to fragmentation within the party, defections to other parties, and some violence – as seen recently at an APC Rally where the treasurer of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), Musiliu Akinsanya a.k.a MC Oluomo, was stabbed. NURTW is tasked with the duty of logistics during the elections, in conjunction with the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC)

    Cases of violence took place in the aftermath of the 2011 elections. Election Day violence was also serious in the 2007 elections, with an estimated 40-50 deaths related to electoral activity and numbers of reports of ballot box thefts, burning of local INEC offices and mobs storming offices to steal ballots and other materials. The political offices of one Delta State candidate for the House of Representatives were bombed.

    There are growing concerns that the 2019 elections will be marred by violence, in Rivers State, for example, between supporters of incumbent Governor Nyesom Wike of the PDP and his APC competitor, Rotimi Amaechi, the minister of transportation – who backs Arch Tonye Cole for the gubernatorial seat.

    Public confidence in INEC is mixed. Although applauded for organizing broadly credible elections in 2015, can the progress be sustained in 2019? For many Nigerians, electoral violence results from processes that are further compromised by the actions or inactions of the INEC or the security agencies. There are some reports that the security forces have served political ends and that many candidates gather gangs of “area boys” around them with both defensive and aggressive purpose.

    Electorates’ Perception Of The Election: The “my vote doesn’t count idea”
    Low voter turnout can also indicate that Nigerians are growing increasingly disillusioned with the young democracy and have little faith that their votes count. This is widely read across the social space where youth who make up a huge number of eligible voters, believe that the election results have already been decided even before people have had the opportunity to cast their votes.
    The youth hardly believe in the government as they think the government only pay lip service to campaign promises. This can have a psychological effect.  The general belief is that politics is only meant for some set of elites in the society and others don’t have a chance.

    Credibility of the Elections: Recurring incidents include underage voting, voter registration list errors, stuffed ballot boxes, group voting, party observers and the police instructing individuals on who to vote for, lack of privacy for voting and lack of results; all these make the voting process questionable.

    Security agents have been seen to snatch ballot boxes in the open. Even with the revolution in technology and its use in election administration, there are still remarkable challenges faced. Counting is still being done manually. The absence of adequate security as well as inadequate electoral transparency could well lead to increased violence upon the conclusion of the elections.

    INEC must proactively maintain and ensure that the electoral process is transparent to Nigerian voters and international observers if it is to maintain its credibility and public peace.


    Voter Education And Ballot Design:     Towards the 2019 elections, most voters were told where and how to register to vote but two crucial sets of information not widespread are the location of their assigned polling station and how to properly cast a vote. Thankfully, the internet penetration has increased to over 90 million yet people still need information on voting stations and how to vote well.

    Many groups, including Nigerian political parties have voiced concerns about INEC’s chosen ballot design. Many voters find the ballot confusing and difficult to fill out properly, thus raising the likelihood of casting invalid votes.

    Two basic problems have consistently been pointed out. First, the ballots for each election were indistinguishable except for the name of the election printed at the top. Each displayed symbols for all registered political parties even in areas where only a fraction of those parties were in fact fielding candidates.

    Second, voters would be asked to indicate their preference by placing a thumbprint in a space looks far too small for an average size thumbprint to fit. The voter would then fold the ballot in a manner that would make it very likely that the thumbprint would stain other portions of the ballot, thereby casting doubt on the voter’s true intention.

    A widespread WhatsApp message from a new political party is encouraging voters to vote with their little finger instead of their thumbs to avoid being invalidated in the 2019 elections. INEC must engage in a sustained public education campaign in the lead-up to the 2019 elections, including mass media campaigns.

    Logistics: With 119,973 polling stations across the country, any delay in getting the ballots to the field can significantly affect opening times at polling stations, especially in rural areas. Ballots are known to travel from several central distribution centers, then have to be hand-counted and handed to the relevant officials for each polling station. There are many incidents of ballots not distributed in a timely manner.

    Haphazard ballot distribution throughout the country has in the past, led to the disenfranchisement of a significant number of Nigerians; many people couldn’t vote due to late poll openings and some polls received no ballots at all. The NURTW and FRSC are  mainly responsible for logistics of voting materials. Are they efficient enough or need increased capacity or is the disorganization deliberate? INEC needs to develop stronger logistical
    plans with more flexibility to prevent a recurrence of these issues.

    Ballots can be stored and distributed from locations within a reasonable distance of their appropriate polling stations. This may require a significant increase in the number of centralized locations and, possibly decrease in the number of polling stations.

    Unordered Voter List: Confusing voter rolls/lists can have a dampening effect on voter turnout and willingness. Voter rolls are usually not ordered and standardized. Voter lists need to be physically displayed within the timeline mandated by the Nigerian Electoral Act. Internet listings are still not yet sufficient with our level of internet penetration. At a minimum, they must be ordered, either alphabetically or numerically.

    According to reports from observers from the International Republican Institute, in 2007, presidential ballots were not serially numbered, unlike the national assembly ballots. This singular failure opened the entire electoral process to fraudulent activity as there was no way to track, or prove in court, that fraud took place without being able to individually identify ballots.

    Location Disenfranchisement: The idea that electorates have to vote at their registered locations needs to be looked into. Voters’ turnout can be a determinant of the election outcome. This brings to mind the just ended 3 month industrial action by the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU, which has most students (who make up a large chunk of eligible voters) out of school since November 5, 2018.

    Although, the strike is called off  recently (about a week to balloting day), many students would rather be in the safety of their homes until after the election with the exception of very enthusiastic voters.

    Voters’ Turnout and Winning Strategy


    Elections are a game of numbers. In the Nigerian system, every vote counts. The effect is that getting voters to come out on Election Day is a necessity for all parties.If voters registration number were to be used as a stepping stone to winning, two states will be key to determining the 2019 presidential election result in the South South geopolitical zone for the main opposition party. Rivers and Delta will be key states for the PDP’s hopes of winning the 2019 presidential elections. Besides being the only states to give the party up to a million votes in 2015, both have the highest number of newly registered voters this year. The increase in new voters is important. The party should use these numbers to their advantage.

    Defeating the present administration requires a torrent that will neutralize the bulwark of the North Western votes. Over the past two election cycles, votes from the North West have belonged to President Buhari, forming part of his acclaimed ‘constant 12 million votes’. In 2015, three states – Kano, Katsina and Kaduna – gave the president up to one million votes each and the difference between these five states – 1,678,720 votes – made up 70.77% of the APC’s total margin of victory. Assuming the region holds firm for the president, it is imperative that the opposition’s strategists get the maximum possible turnout from the South-Southern stronghold states.


    Crashing the North West
    But does the PDP have a chance at cracking the North West wall this time?

    Zooming into the political ambiance and the realignments of influential figures in the region shows a possibility. In Kano, a battle of egos between state governor Abdullahi Ganduje and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso led the latter to return to the PDP sometime in 2018. Kwankwaso’s huge following in the ancient city, dating back to his days as state governor, is a formidable, indispensable asset for the Atiku Abubakar campaign if well directed. The Kwankwasiyya movement contributed to the APC’s margin of victory in Kano in 2015 being 1,688,220 votes; splitting that difference as well as claiming the majority of the over 500,000 newly registered voters is the strategy to employ.

    Also, the president’s home state of Katsina has voted for the PDP in elections before, being the home state of former president Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. President Buhari won it in 2015 by 1,246,504 votes but there is a modest chance for closing the gap, beginning with laying claim to majority of the 385,489 new voters in the state. For the PDP, the aim here will be to keep the APC’s potential margin of victory close, while getting the most of its strongholds in the South.
    But where it is about keeping it tight in Kano and Katsina, there is a potential for a flip in Jigawa. Located between Kano and Yobe states (in effect the North West/North East border state), Jigawa has the highest increase in number of voters in the country behind Rivers and Delta states. Combined with the fact that it had the highest improvement in voter turnout from 2011 to 2015, the state becomes potentially decisive for the PDP should it be able to claim majority of the votes.

     

     

    Lagosians Are Busy
    Indeed, Jigawa is more decisive for both parties than Lagos, the state with the largest number of registered voters.
    Home to 24 million inhabitants of just about every ethnic and religious affiliation, Africa’s fifth largest economy is the most curious subject for psephologists and casual students of Nigerian elections. Lagos is the abode of the wealthiest and most informed individuals in Nigeria. Yet, its apathy towards electoral participation could not be more ironic given the far-reaching impact politics and policy summersaults can have on commerce and industry. Voter turnouts of 33.06% (third lowest in the country) and 25.67% (lowest) in 2011 and 2015 respectively suggest residents have other priorities other than voting on the election day, even if movement is typically restricted and most businesses operate skeletally.
    What’s more? The margin of victory between the two major parties almost makes campaigning in the state of little significance. Of the 21 states, the APC won in 2015, Lagos ranks 15th (or seventh from bottom) in terms of the margin of victory. Essentially, it is more profitable for the APC to increase its voter turnout in Boko Haram-ravaged states like Borno and Yobe (each posted over 400,000 in victory margins) than Lagos. Apparently, supporters of both parties in the state know enough about each others’ strengths and subconsciously become reluctant to show up for the fight.

    For the PDP, a similar dynamic plays out in the Federal Capital Territory, and in states like Nasarawa, Ekiti and Taraba. Though the party won these states in 2015, it was not with margins that require them pulling out all the stops for their votes this time around.

    The Demographic Influence
    For the first time since the dawn of Nigeria’s fourth republic, there will be voters who did not experience the military administration. Hence, there is a place for considering the character of the individuals who make up numbers that could determine the coming polls.
    In consonance with population data, INEC categorizes 22.3 million voters as being students. The other categories as high are farmers/fishers, people in “Business” and housewives. These categorizations are not enough to describe how Nigerians are probably going to cast their ballots; for example, students who are also artisans may vote differently from students who are traders. Also, the geographic location, occupation and social status of the husbands of those identified as housewives could have an influence on their votes.

    However, matching the candidates’ policy positions and reactions to events could help hazard a hypothesis on the sector of the economy where the candidates are likely to get their votes. Students who have been on strike for three months may likely side with Atiku Abubakar in search for new answers, while Artisans and Farmers who have benefited from social intervention programmes such as n-power, Trader Moni and Market Moni could potentially tilt towards re-electing the president. Every other category, if taken singularly, could present toss-ups.

    This article was written with support from Open Data Research Centre, School of Media and Communication, Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos

     

  • Polls: Police deploy 20, 000 security in Kano

    Kano state Police Command is deploying no fewer than 20,000 security personnel to secure the 484 wards in 44 Local Government Areas in Saturday’s presidential and senatorial election in the state.

    The deployment is to ensure a peaceful conduct of the polls as well as protect the lives and property of the citizens of the state.

    Briefing reporters at the Command Headquarters on the preparations on Friday, the commissioner of Police Mr. Wakili Mohammed, said 15,000 specially trained police officers and 5,000 sister organizations would be drafted for the election.

    Wakili, warned that anyone caught with weapons, during the elections, would be arrested and prosecuted according to the provisions of the law.

    According to him, voters should vote for any candidate of their choice, stressing that, the election is not a war, but for the election to be credible.

    He maintained his men are ready to ensure a peaceful conduct of the election, promising that his men will protect all voters, asking as they conduct themselves in a peaceful and orderly manner.

    “We want the voting to start peacefully and end peacefully am calling on the good people of Kano to cooperate with security agencies to ensure peaceful conduct of the election.

    Mohammed also warned that nobody is authorized to come to the polling station, with dangerous weapons, as anybody caught would be dealt with, so as to serve as deterrent t others, whose mission is to cause disorder to scuttle the elections.

    Meanwhile, in a Press Conference held at NUJ Press Centre, the spokesperson of South-African based election observer body, Pan African Women’s Project, Belinda Maduna, commended the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for its level of preparedness ahead of the elections.

    Accordingly to her, representatives of the body have been on ground for the last 48 hours, “and we are Impressed. INEC is doing a wonderful job here in Kano. We have seen the staff working round the clock to ensure that all the election materials get to the designated places on time.”

    She further appealed to INEC to ensure smooth conduct of the elections, “our expectations are large. We expect credible, peaceful, free and fair elections.”

    Belinda also appealed to security agencies to remain committed to peaceful conduct of the elections, adding that, “we are appealing to security agencies to be honourable and perform their duties deligently. They should not intimidate voters. They should be friendly to the electorate and ensure their safety during the elections.”

    Belinda also advised politicians to desist from vote-buying and other forms of electoral crime, urging them not to allow their supporters to carry arms or engage in snatching of ballot boxes and other electoral crimes during the elections.

    She, however, advised Kano electorate to troop out en mass and vote candidates of their choice, adding that, “it is the right of every Nigerian eligible voter to go out there tomorrow and vote for candidates of their choice.”