Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 is something to cheer about if the projections by the World Bank and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) are anything to go by.
According to the 2026 ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report by the World Bank released recently, the Bretton Wood institution projected Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 percent forecasted in June 2025.
The global financial institution also upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2027 to 4.4 percent from 3.8 percent.
In addition, the bank estimated that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 percent in 2025, compared to the 3.6 percent forecasted in June last year.
Also, the World Bank increased its 2026 global economic growth rate projection from 2.4 percent to 2.6 percent.
In the report, the financial institution also estimated a 2.7 percent economic growth rate for the 2026 period compared to the 2.3 percent orecasted in June last year.
According to the report, the 2027 global economic growth rate is projected at 2.7 percent, compared to the 2.6 percent forecasted in June 2025.
The World Bank said the global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
However, the bank noted that while global growth remains stable, it is concentrated in advanced economies and is unlikely to reduce extreme poverty, with the 2020s on track to be the weakest decade since the 1960s.
“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” the World Bank said.
The institution said global growth will slow in 2026 as trade-related boosts fade, but easing financial conditions and fiscal expansion are expected to cushion the impact.
It added that inflation is projected to edge down to 2.6 percent in 2026, with growth picking up in 2027 as trade and policy uncertainty ease.
Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist, said with each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth while appearing more resilient to policy uncertainty.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” Gill said.
“Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s — while carrying record levels of public and private debt.
“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”
The World Bank said sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is expected to rise to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027.
In 2026, the institution said growth in developing economies is projected to slow to 4 percent from 4.2 percent in 2025 before edging up to 4.1 percent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.
The bank noted that growth is projected to be higher in low-income countries, averaging 5.6 percent over 2026–2027, supported by stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.
The World Bank said developing economies will continue to lag behind advanced economies, with per capita income growth projected at 3 percent in 2026, widening the income gap.
“At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to be only 12% of the level in advanced economies,” the institution said.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s director of the Prospects Group, said with public debt in emerging and developing economies at its highest level in more than half a century, restoring fiscal credibility has become urgent.
“Well-designed fiscal rules can help governments stabilise debt, rebuild policy buffers, and respond more effectively to shocks,” Kose said.
“But rules alone are not enough: credibility, enforcement, and political commitment ultimately determine whether fiscal rules deliver stability and growth.”
Also the NESG has declared that the country has exited its period of acute economic crisis, forecasting a 5.5% GDP growth rate for 2026.
The announcement was made on Thursday during the launch of the group’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook report, titled “Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria.”
NESG also projected foreign reserves to rise to $52 billion, but cautioned that the next 18 months will be critical in preventing policy reversals.
NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf, acknowledged that Nigeria had undergone one of its most disruptive adjustment periods in recent history.
He described recent reforms as painful but necessary, noting they marked the stabilisation phase of economic recovery.
“Stabilisation alone does not equate to prosperity,” Yusuf said, stressing that growth remains modest, uneven, and concentrated in a few sectors with limited impact on jobs and household incomes.
He urged policymakers to consolidate reform gains and transition toward sustainable, inclusive growth.
Meanwhile, the Chief Economist Dr. Olusegun Omisakin outlined projections for 2026 showed GDP growth: 5.5%, with inflation: 16% (with a target of single digits by 2029).
He warned that Nigeria faces a “critical 18-month window” to consolidate reforms, citing examples from Ghana and Brazil where economies regressed after failing to sustain momentum. Without consistent implementation, growth could slip back to 2–3%.
Omisakin emphasised the need to shift focus from the services sector, which currently contributes 60% of GDP, to more productive areas such as agriculture and manufacturing.
He argued that linking manufacturing with agriculture could deliver 6–8% growth in the sector.
The NESG urged both government and private sector stakeholders to remain committed to reforms.
Omisakin concluded: “Nigeria has turned the corner. Now we must sustain the momentum.”
