Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will double in the next 15 years to more than $1 trillion, according to the latest projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The forecast says Nigeria’s economy will grow at an annual rate of up to 7.92 percent in the next 15 years.
At the USDA’s projected rate, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have surpassed the $1 trillion mark by 2030, making it the first African country with an economy larger than $1 trillion.
With a current annual GDP of about $500 billion, Africa’s largest economy – now ranked 27th in the world — is projected to rise to 19th, ahead of Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Austria by 2030. But at 19th position globally, Nigeria’s economy will still rank behind Russia, Turkey and Mexico.
According to Bloomberg, by 2030, Nigeria will rank among the top 20 largest economies in the world.
Nigeria’s economy has been growing at a breathtaking rate approaching 7 percent in the last few years. The economy grew 6.6 percent in 2012, hitting 7 percent in the fourth quarter of that year, and 6.8 percent in 2013, compared with the relatively sluggish growth rates of the U.S. economy — 2 to 2.5 percent — in the years after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008.
China remains the world’s fastest growing economy, posting an impressive 7.3 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. China is expected to slow to 7 percent in 2015, according to Bloomberg.
Although, much of the recent growth in Nigeria’s economy was due to favorable oil prices, many analysts see the recent slump in crude oil prices as providing impetus for a quickening of the pace of other sectors of the economy, such as the already fast growing telecommunications sector, the booming films (“Nollywood”) industry, as well as the light manufacturing sector — plastics, textiles and food processing industries — which has seen considerable growth recently.
Nigeria’s $56 billion agricultural sector remains the major source of employment for about 70 percent of the population and accounts for about 24 percent of GDP, second only to the oil sector.
Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, told CNN, “A lot of Nigeria’s growth will come from agriculture; and services are huge in Nigeria.”
While many, including this Digital Journal analyst, believe that the USDA projection of 7.92 percent GDP growth rate in the next 15 years is unduly optimistic, Robertson says the projection has likely underestimated the growth potentials of Nigeria’s economy. He believes that the country’s GDP could easily surpass the $1 trillion mark before 2030, pointing to the “explosive” growth of “banking, retail, telecoms and Nollywood” in recent years.
Nigeria officially overtook South Africa as the continent’s largest economy after the government of President Goodluck Jonathan rebased the economy in 2014. The country’s annual GDP for 2013 was revalued at $509.9 billion, placing it ahead of South Africa — formerly ranked the Africa’s largest economy — with a GDP of $469 billion.
An economy of with a gross domestic output of $1 trillion would seem unimpressive by the standards of the world’s largest economies. The US economy, for instance, would have grown to $24.8 trillion by the time Nigeria hits $1 trillion in 2030, while China’s GDP, currently about $11.2 trillion, would have nearly doubled to $22.2 trillion.
By 2030, India’s annual GDP is expected to have reached $6.6 trillion, making the country the third largest economy in the world.
