After the death of nine people, five of whom were members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) demanding the release of Nnamdi Kanu, one of their leaders, the police have begun to talk tough. Most of the dead were killed by soldiers forcefully removing barricades mounted by the protesters on the Niger Bridge in Onitsha. The police in fact lost one of their own. Shooting unarmed protesters of course has its own legal implication, and the shooting itself may yet be investigated, though justice may be delayed. Yet, the language issuing from the mouths of security agents is not different from the one coming from the protesters, only that the protesters have spoken violence and so far used none. Has the country learnt any lesson from the Boko Haram insurgency? Perhaps not.
A few weeks ago, this column suggested that rather than threaten fire and brimstone, the federal government should design brilliant and ingenious way of engaging the IPOB/MASSOB protesters. But apparently no one is thinking for the government. Everyone is relying on force and talking of the need to crush the protesters. The column had warned that in the modern era, few secessionists embrace direct or conventional war. The vogue is asymmetric war. If the IPOB/MASSOB campaigners were to embrace violence, they would not opt for conventional tactics; and with an unmanageable insurgency in the Northeast, the crisis could easily become messy and bloody. The wise option for the government, as it was suggested in this place, is to find accommodation with IPOB/MASSOB on a realistic and sustainable basis.
No matter the amount of force applied, the problem will not go away. It can only get worse. Whether Southeast leaders support or deny IPOB/MASSOB is hardly the point. And whether sometime in the future an Igbo man becomes president hardly also matters. After all, Boko Haram did not regard the presidency of the late ex-president Umaru Yar’Adua, nor has it responded to that of the ascetic President Buhari. The government must therefore challenge itself to come up with a solution. As an analyst said recently, the crisis threatening to fester in the Southeast is partly due to the fact that there was no closure to the Nigerian civil war. The issues that led to the war, which issues have led to periodic eruptions all over the country, have not been addressed in any systematic or scientific fashion. There is no sense of national identity, and no lodestar around which the various ethnic and religious groups can coalesce. Nor is the country structured in such way as to eliminate or considerably attenuate political, cultural and religious frictions. Until these are done, the problem will both endure and worsen.
By shooting unarmed protesters, the first fateful step may already have been taken in aggravating the IPOB/MASSOB crisis. If the Buhari presidency is smart as his supporters say, it will pause for some deep reflections. Campaigning on the pages of newspapers or in the media against the promoters of Biafra will achieve nothing. Even if two-thirds of the Southeast should repudiate the Biafra idea, it would profit nothing. All it takes for this kind of crisis to assume apocalyptic proportions is just for a few dedicated martyrs to offer their lives and time to prosecute the cause. And all it takes for the matter to explode out of hand is for the government to falsely believe that it has the security apparatus to check the crisis. It does not have the resources, and it is already stretched thin by Boko Haram.
The Buhari presidency must act now while it still has the initiative. He has been accused of not really having an economic vision; at least he has not given indication he has any beyond his anti-corruption war and his idiosyncratic asceticism. And he has also been accused of not having a vision for a new social order, a vision that comes only from inside of him. It can’t be administered from outside, and cannot be taught. Worse, now, he is been accused of not having a political vision, just as ex-president Goodluck Jonathan did not have one until in desperation he concocted one half-heartedly in the closing months of his presidency. Whether it can be taught or developed from within him, President Buhari has only a little time to enunciate a political vision for Nigeria. It is that vision that will inform how he responds to the Biafra crisis and other crises waiting in the wings to erupt like a volcano.
